Nominee joe biden offering more policy, less shouting, kicking the night off with different visions on how to respond to the coronavirus pandemic. Pres. Trump we are learning to live with it. We have no choice. We cant lock ourselves up in a basement like joe does. Mr. Biden he says we are learning to live with it. People are leaning to die with it. You also set a vaccine will be coming within weeks. Is that a guarantee . Pres. Trump no, it is not a guarantee, but it will be by the end of the year. Notbiden anyone who is taking control, who says i take no responsibility, anyone responsible for that many deaths should not remain president of the United States of america. Chiefbloombergs washington correspondent Kevin Cirilli joins us from nashville. What is the rhetoric on the ground . How to the markets need to Pay Attention to it . Kevin first things first, i think it was a shift in tone from President Trump, and that really provided him an opportunity to try to make direct appeal to workingclass voters that he needs to show up in big numbers next tuesday. Ive talked to several sources, including the chairwoman of the republican party, who told me the base of the party is already there, but now they need to mid they need to win back the mitt romney, john kasich crowd. Those republicans i just referenced have either endorsed joe biden or are voting for someone else. In terms of the market interpretation, i think what you saw last night was a real preview of what a Biden Administration economy was look economy would look like. More fiscal spending as it relates to infrastructure, as it relates to stimulus. And how he would unite the Green New Deal coalition of the democrat socialist wing of the party anymore moderates, especially when it relates to oil. Guy kevin, thanks for the update. Appreciate it as ever. Kevin cirilli joining us postdebate. Small business and stimulus were key parts of the debate, among some of the hottest topics that were talked about. Money has flowed in record amounts to large firms, but small companys across the country are finding it increasingly difficult to get funds. Bloombergs sonali basak spoke with blackstones plight scott about this blackstones dwight scott about this lisa about this. That has always been true. That continues to be true. The smaller businesses are having a harder time finding access to capital. Wasthe fiscal stimulus designed to focus as much as it could on the large markets. It had Great Success in doing that. I think the next fiscal stimulus will focus more on the smaller companies, the smaller borrowers. That is not really where we play, but i think there is a place for the fiscal stimulus to help there. Guy bloomberg has been digging heavily into this subject of the past couple of days. Sonali is here with more. What have we learned . Sonali the situation is getting pretty dire. About 25 of businesses are closed at a greater pace than they were before the pandemic. That is better than it was at the heat of the pandemic, but that number doesnt even tell you the whole story. If you look at it, 86 of Small Businesses, the majority of Small Businesses have already run out of there ppp spending, and about half of them need more money according to the National Federation of independent business. Why is this it big deal . This book why is this a big deal . Because Small Businesses have employmentor 2 3 of in the last few years. Effect on what the Unemployment Rate looks like at the end of the day. If you look at this other chart, 35 , one and three Small Businesses will not make it through the next three months. As we know, fiscal stimulus talks are still at a standstill, so without that money in the next couple of months, we might see a lot more businesses wiped out, and black and latino businesses much more disproportionately hit. Alix to that point, what are the pitfalls of the current policy, and what do these businesses say they need to survive . Sonali the fact that the ppp money is already running out as a big deal. A lot of these firms have already used money, but they also found that it has been very difficult in how they use that money. They are also finding a hard time paying their overhead, paying rent, paying insurance. We would look at the next wave of stimulus, we are going to look at firms that probably need more forbearance. We might need to look at this Unemployment Rate and realize a lot of the other Employment Benefits have disproportionately gone to white workers rather than black workers. Simply, money is not going to fix the problem when a lot of these firms are citing reduced consumer demand is their biggest reason for struggling. Alix sonali, things a lot. I really appreciate it. For more on the difficulties in getting funds to the broader economy, dont miss her special report, the credit disconnect, coming up at 7 30 p. M. This evening. Lets get some reaction. Darrell cronk, wells fargo Investment Management cio. We get something. It is going to be good. It is going to happen after the election. It is may be able to waive. What do you do it maybe a blue wave. What do you do with that . Darrell the irony is the smallcap time of the Small Businesses on main street are struggling. Smallcap equities are doing quite well. They are besting the s p by over 500 basis points just in the last 30 days alone. They are close to making a new alltime high for the first time in 500 days, the fourth longest period of time in history. We still think the reflation trade is alive and well. It is not to small caps. Industrials are doing well. They are beating Technology Performance over the last 90 days by if you basis points. By a few basis points. You are getting a steeper yield curve. As Inflation Expectations go higher, some of the treasury demand has waned. That is good for financials. Kre bankot the krb indexes breaking out above the 200 a moving averages. To the reflation trade that people have been talking about, when you pull the covers back and look underneath it, it is alive and well, and it is playing on q as it should on cue as it should. Seen an ok earnings season thus far, yet certainly indie arch cap space certainly in the large cap space, equities havent popped higher. What will it take in terms of their stock Market Performance if earnings are not going to do it . Darrell its a great point. 27 of theabout s p reporting this morning. Beats ratio is has hired a set of urban, high as it has ever been. Arguably, q4 estimates for earnings to be down 12 to 13 yearoveryear in q4 havent moved an inch. Companies arent getting rewarded. I think you have to get past the stimulus conversation and the election conversation and some of the concerns about a second wave in covid before equity prices really start pricing in true fundamentals and earnings beats, which we know matter in todays economy. The overhang that is happening from those big issues, two of which, stimulus and covid, may take a while, but certainly the election 11 days out, putting that behind us will actually reduce the uncertainty premium in the market and hopefully drive us back to repricing equities towards fundamentals. Alix what is your take on fundamentals . Im looking at the pmi. Service is coming in stronger. Manufacturing coming bang in line with estimates. Sort of the opposite story in europe. We are getting the good data stalling out. We are kind of going nowhere fast. What do you think . Darrell china and the u. S. Have put together good strings of data over the last four months. This is the fourth month in a row we are over 50 on manufacturing and services, which is in expansionary territory, so that is helping. I do think you are going to start to lose a little bit of momentum as you move deeper into the fall winter, certainly as we talked about covid, and some of the big resurgence we are still getting the tailwind off of the initial recovery that is going to fade off of this. We really need to be focused on 2021 growth and where that is going to land, and how the economy can benefit from it. Interestingly enough, one of the underappreciated things specific to these is the operating leverage component of next years earnings. As Companies Work really hard, the ones that are doing ok and surviving through this to reduce their expense line, as demand picks back up and revenue picks back up, that reduction in expenses is going to push straight to the bottom line and could surprise earnings to the upside next year. Eventow big a volatility will the arrival of vaccines be . Darrell its a great point. The market has priced in the arrival of a vaccine by yearend. That is a wellknown fact, and weve got a whole number of fda approval, very likely that happens at the end of the year. I think the real issue for vaccine is around a couple of things. One is accessibility, how fast we can get it out. I think the underappreciated element is efficacy. How effective is the vaccine . Because if you have a rush to market vaccine, normally vaccines have a 95 efficacy right. You could have a 60 efficacy right, which wouldnt be terribly successful for a confidence increased materially. Another thing to watch here, mutations of the virus are really key here because if you develop a vaccine that is good for this specific covid19 strand, but it mutates and you need another vaccine and another vaccine and another vaccine, those are the key element. So accessibility, efficacy, and mutation, that we have to watch as it relates to the vaccine conversation. Guy we are going to leave it there. Thanks for your time. We really appreciate it. Up, covid cases just keep on climbing. We are going to check in with vendor built university with Vanderbilt University school of medicine about the cases we are seeing in europe. This is bloomberg. [speaking french] the weeks ahead will be tough. Our hospitals and Health Care Services are facing a tough challenge, and the number of dead will increase. Guy the french prime ministers speaking about the rapid increase in covid cases that france is seeking. Joining us now, dr. William schatzker. Thank you for your time. We are sitting in europe watching cases climb and climb rapidly. France is at 40,000 plus. The u. S. Is at 77,000. The u. S. Seems to be climbing, but with a lag. Do you think it is going to catch up with where europe is right now. Becauseoks like we are people are opening up carelessly and in a carefree manner rather than being careful. Andover most of the states now, we see increases, including sadly in my own state of tennessee. Cases are steadily increasing, and we anticipate even more with the coming of the winter season because more people will be indoors, closer together for more prolonged period of time, and that is exactly how the virus spreads and spreads rapidly. Alix i think what i am trying to understand, the real risk winds up coming with death because that is going to affect confidence. People are going to want to stay in their homes, not go outdoors. That is when we run into deeper problems. Prepared our hospitals and doctors in terms of treatment, in terms of hospital beds, masks, all of the equip they actually need . The equipment they actually need . Dr. Schaffner as you know, deaths are a lagging indicator. Usually, with the increases in cases, deaths increase, but two, three, four weeks later. Hospitals are preparing the best they can, but some, for example in wisconsin, are already very stressed and anticipating a between demand into spitting a twindemic. Not only the covid increase, but our old enemy influenza, which in and of itself can cause stress is in hospitals. So we anticipate a very rough winter. At the moment, the supply of personal protective equipment, for example, is steady. But who knows what will happen two months from now . People are very antsy. Is a good wayhat of putting it. We are all looking forward to the arrival of a vaccine, or many people are looking for to the arrival of a vaccine. What are the challenges you see . Dr. Schaffner as your previous guests said, there are several issues. The average person thinks this vaccine is going to be extremely effective, but most of us, the scientists think it will be moderately effective. 60 , 70 effective. That will really impact how quickly we can get the vaccine , and we also know that surveys have already said up to half the population in the United States is going to hold back. They are not going to get in line and roll up their sleeves for this vaccine. They want to see whether it is really safe once we start giving it to millions of people. Concern isess, this really especially expressed among the minority populations. People are africanamerican and hispanic people who are African American and hispanic, the very populations that are disproportionately affected. Alix for a Market Participant looking at vaccine approval, they say great, all clear. Now i can look at buying socks, or we are going to see reflation or real growth. What is the best data point to look at . Once a vaccine comes out, is it six months later . How do we understand it . Dr. Schaffner i would think, my crystal ball suggests six to eight months later. After all, we are trying to vaccinate 330 Million People in the United States. You cant do that in a week and a half. It will take months. As i said, some people will hang back, and the vaccine may not be perfectly effective. One of the things people havent realized is even after you are vaccinated, you are going to have to continue to wear your mask and social distance. That will continue for many, many months. I anticipate we will be Wearing Masks this time next year. Alix wow. It is really good to get the perspective and put the vaccine in context. William schaffner, thank you so much. Good to talk to you. This is bloomberg. Ritika it is time for the Bloomberg Business flash, a look at some of the biggest business stories in the news right now. Im ritika gupta. Lori l reported a surprise loreal reported a surprise increase in sales. Loreals ceo. Mitigate trying to through this crisis, and we are still confident that we should be able to have a positive second half this year, and we are preparing also for positive and dynamic next year. Ritika bloomberg has learned that u. S. Regulators are close to a final decision on whether to bring an antitrust suit against facebook. The suit would accuse the social network of using its dominance to harm competition. Staff at the federal trade Commission Support bringing a case. White house economic and pfizer larry kudlow says the ball isnt Economic Advisor larry kudlow says the ball isnt moving much anothercomes to stimulus bill, but talks are still taking place. It takes a while. Youve got to vote in both houses. It takes a day or two. Just writing up the legislative print of it, a 2000 plus page bill, takes time. Then you have the issue of the operational executions. Ritika even if House Democrats on the white house reach a deal, there is no guarantee it would pass the republicancontrolled senate. That is your latest business flash. Alix thanks so much. All of this brings into question, what is christ in . What is consent what is priced in . What is consensus . One area you can see that is the etf flows. If we take a look at solar etf demand, really started tracking biden rising in the polls ever since september. You have to wonder what is actually priced in. If we dont get the consent this the consensus, what kind of selloff in those trades can you see . Guy and how much can you get done if he doesnt when the senate . I would expect still quite a lot on that front. Maybe it is a little different for the trade we are seeing around the bigger stimulus story. Certainly the green agenda is front and center for the Biden Administration were it to become such administration. Peersk what kudlow said to be absolutely consensus right now. It is going to be difficult to achieve stimulus the side of the election, and i think, back to sonali, point a little earlier on, that is going to be tough for a lot of businesses around america. You think about this in aggregate, the ev trade and the stories we are talking about here, the Biggest Issue front and center for america is getting jobs and making sure that people can keep them, and that looks like a really tough job. Alix indeed, and i think the question is even if you do get a blue wave, what winds up coming out of it that could support jobs . It is not as easy as saying, go solar plant, have some money. It was also interesting last night, we talked about flows, energy is going to be one of the most disruptive sectors. That is a nobrainer. But President Trump. Candidate biden to be able to say he was going to phase out oil. Talk about losing jobs. The oil industry employs a lot of people all over the country for oil, natural gas for the common nation of the two for the combination of the two. What is that . Do you really mean zero oil, or did he just get tripped up . Guy you wonder about the latter, but i am assuming he probably already assumes he is going to lose texas. Pennsylvania is probably a bigger narrative around that. But the two things sit sidebyside. Theres this narrative in europe that the green deal is going to be incredibly job generative. While right now the challenge is dealing with that we dont lose jobs in the here and now, in the longer term, that transition could generate a huge number of jobs. That is something a large number of people in europe are talking about. Whether or not that would get replicated elsewhere and whether there will be that transference away from the energy sector, which is a huge employer, particularly when it comes to oil, it is a fascinating Creative Destruction story. Things to talk about certainly as we work our way through the next few weeks. Up next, are we going to see a binding administration a Biden Administration . We are going to talk about that. This is bloomberg. So youre a small business, or a big one. You were thriving, but then. Oh. Ah. Okay. Plan, pivot. How do you bounce back . You dont, you bounce forward, with serious and reliable internet. Powered by the largest gig Speed Network in america. But is it secure . Sure its secure. And even if the power goes down, your connection doesnt. So how do i do this . You dont do this. We do this, together. Bounce forward, with comcast business. Mr. Biden i dont understand why this president is unwilling to take on putin when he is paying bounties to kill american soldiers in afghanistan, when he is engaged in activities that are trying to destabilize all of nato. I dont understand why he doesnt do it, but it is worth asking the question. Why isnt that being done . Pres. Trump theres been nobody tougher on russia, between the sanctions. Nobody tougher on russia. Guy russia a big topic during the president ial debate last night. Termdent trumps first marked as a tough period for some russian businesses. Remember, he imposed sanctions on the largest producer of low carbon aluminum in the world. That was back in 2018. The sanctions were lifted in part because of the efforts of our next guest, the executor chairman of the e. M. Plus group. Lord barker, lets talk about the issue of relations between the United States and russia. They did hit a low point. You were affected by that. You expended a great deal of energy making sure that those sanctions were lifted. , democrats were pushing back on those being lifted. Do you fear that if we were to see a democrat in the white house, your business would once again be in the spotlight . First of all, we are not going to get involved in politics. We work across the aisle with parties of all colors, just as we do across the eu. Around the world, we are a global business. But you are right, after the business was sanctioned by the Trump Administration in 2018, we fundamentally changed the basis of this group. The chair holding changed the shareholding changed, the board changed, the construction changed. We are a very different animal now to the group that was put under sanctions. We will work with whoever wins the forthcoming election, but basically, we work with american business. We are not any politics game. Alix i think every company has to be any politics game. I bring it up because it must be difficult to have visibility on what demand can really be in the middle of covid, when we dont know what the growth and stimulus package of the stimulus packages are going to be, and in the middle of the election. How do you think of that supply demand dynamic . Gregory youre are absolutely right, it is almost unprecedented the number of risks, challenges, and changes that we face on the business landscape. So we are being very cautious. We are fortunate that after crushing earlier in the year desk crashing earlier in the year, the aluminum after ashing earlier in the year, the aluminum price has hit a new high, the highest since may of last year. But we are still very cautious. I think the whole Manufacturing Sector is cautious, particularly in the face of a second wave. Theres been Strong Demand butth in china, extraordinarily the Manufacturing Index is back up to where it was in 2011. So there are some signs of strong growth around the globe, but in most markets, it is a very uncertain picture, and we are being very cautious. Guy as you say, the second wave is now a reality for much of europe. Insia has its own vaccine the form of sputnik five, and there are rumors that e. M. Plus and managers have been using the vaccine. Is the vaccine having a Material Impact on your operations at the moment . Have you been offered it . How many of your staff have been offered it . What effect is it having . Gregory no, i havent been offered it, nor have my senior colleagues. But it is important that we get a vaccine sooner rather than later for the essential workers in our operations. Those are the people, the men and women that keep the electricity supplying regions across siberia, particularly as we head into winter. But as i understand it, there have been big advances with this vaccine, but they have yet to hit industrial scale production. They are not there yet. We hope that our frontline workers in supplying energy across the siberian region will be in line for that vaccine if and when it becomes approved and available. Alix do you have any visibility of the timeline . Gregory i dont. I hope it will be months, but i dont have a real insight. Guy one of the things that certainly was another subject of the debate last night was the Energy Policy that the United States is going to pursue, and also the green policy that america is going to pursue. You are a prime proponent of green aluminum, aluminum produced in a sustainable way. Aluminum requires a lot of energy, and that energy needs to be sustainable. Do you think customers are willing to pay a premium for all of that product . Certainly the polling we have taken shows that a growing number of consumers would be willing to pay a small premium for a product that had real Environmental Integrity and wasnt degrading the planet. However, i think the onus is on business to actually make Green Products competitive. Certainly if you look at the aluminum, there is no premium for the fact that we are far lower carbon emitters than the average industry. For chinese aluminum, which makes up up to 60 of the product,ersus our theres this huge discrepancy in the aluminum market between high carbon producers and low carbon producers. But at the moment, there is no real price differential. So weve got to drive forward. In the future, i think we will without carbon pollution. Aluminum will continue to be extremely price competitive. We really appreciate your time. Coming up, we will take a look at the elections and the diverging view on health care. We will dive into the platforms with Catherine Baker with katherine baicker, coming up next. This is bloomberg. Ritika this is bloomberg markets. Today, we will hear from galaxy investment chairman michael novogratz. This is bloomberg. Guy weve got 11 days until the election. Last nights debate had more substance than the first, but also didnt give investors much new information about the direction of policy. In this weeks edition of wall street votes, we are looking past the noise to try and learn more about those positions. Fu has more. Carlet scarlet i am going to give you three analyst calls, and only one depends on analyst outcomes. What would a blue sweep mean for health care subsectors . This hypothetical situation would have much more impact than the status quo. Chris meekins at Raymond James says it all depends on the senate filibuster. Ifstays, reba lukens it stays, republicans would be able to block the democrats agenda, a net negative for pharmas because democrats want to lower drug prices. If the filibuster ends, the senate can pass bills with a super majority rather than 60 votes, and in that case you will want to look for broader action against pharmas. Having said that, the final action will likely be less impactful then the perceived risks. Lets move onto the second call. Goldman sachs says the vaccine outlook is more important than whoever wins. The outlook will be driven by the Clinical Data from the frontrunners. Of course, weve got results from pfizer and its german partner out in a few weeks. Moderna may follow. Johnson johnsons single shot release could be released before yearend. According to goldman sachs, and earlier than expected vaccine could lift equity prices. A delay could send markets lower. He says watch for the conceit the efficacy rate. Even something in the low 60 range could be enough to turn bullish on beatendown cyclicals. The third call comes from ken johnson at wells fargo. He says Health Care Tech names will outperform no matter what because people have changed their behavior. Teladoc has seen its stock rise from the low 80s to almost 215 so far this year. It is already projected 30 to 40 Revenue Growth in 2021, and it reports earnings next wednesday. According to bloomberg intelligence, demand likely cooled from the peak in the second quarter, but we will still be above prepend amid levels, and the biggest challenge for a complete teladoc is to manage growth expectations. Of course, you will keep an eye out because its results will serve kind of as a proxy for smaller rivals. A lot of things to keep in mind here as we look ahead to what the election brings. Good perspective. Thank you very much, scarlet fu. While you have the health care really in the center, President Trump and democratic nominee joe biden flashed on their health care plans. Pres. Trump socialized medicine, it is not that he wants it. His Vice President , she is more liberal then Bernie Sanders and once it even more. Bernie sanders once it. The democrats wanted. Mr. Biden it is ridiculous. It is like saying the idea that there is a public option, that people can choose, that makes it a socialist plan. The difference between i and president , i think health care is not a privilege. It is a right. Alix joining us now is katherine baicker, university of Chicago Public policy dean. It is a great time to have you because your research focuses on the effectiveness of public and private Health Insurance. You are the best person to talk about this. Is what the democrats want socialized medicine . Katherine baicker really, i think we are talking about a public option that would introduce new government choices for people and expand the role of Government Health care, but really would not eliminate the private sector options that people have. We have a patchwork system right now. It was interesting to hear the candidates talk about medicare at this medicare as if it is not a public program. Medicare and medicaid in sure millions of people across the u. S. Right now, so we are in a patchwork system today. Covid changed peoples perspectives in america . Katherine i think it has really brought to the forefront the cost of that patchwork system, particularly doing a twin economic crisis and health crisis. Most privately insured americans get their insurance through their jobs, and as people lose their jobs, the consequences of losing access to Health Insurance and health care are clearly quite dire during the pandemic. I think it highlights the importance of having complement three alternative mechanisms for getting insurance and the care that that provides, such as Health Insurance exchanges, medicaid, or affordable private Insurance Options that would substitute for the employersponsored insurance people might be losing. ,lix is that what bidencare which he sort of reframed as yesterday, would be . Or would it be Something Different . Katherine it is built on the exchanges we already have that are built under obamacare or the aca. Enrollment in those plans has been pretty minimal to date, although that may be changing as the labor market changes alongside the pandemic. Most people who got new insurance through obamacare got it through medicaid, but some got it through these Health Insurance exchanges. In some states theres not a lot of competition on those exchanges, and premium rates have been volatile as the population has changed and the Health Care Landscape has changed. So bidens plan would at a public option for people to choose. Who is eligible for that at what subsidy rates, how it actually competes with private insurance on a level Playing Field or unlevel Playing Field, that is going to be really important. Guy we are about to get a new justice, amy coney barrett, sparking fears that we could see the Affordable Care act being struck down. Of theuld be the effect aca being struck down . Katherine millions of people got insurance because of the aca , both through medicaid and the health occurrence the Health Insurance exchanges, but has had less of an effect on the growth of Health Insurance premiums and Health Care Spending that people might have thought. The question is, can you preserve some of the things people like about the law if you take away some of the underpinnings . Theres broad support for maintaining coverage of preexisting conditions, but it is hard to do that at an affordable rate if there isnt some mechanism that drives healthy and sick people into the same insurance pool. That could be a mandate, which is not very popular, and got removed. It could be through a big t fordy that is a carrot getting insured through those systems. Robust having a financing system to make sure, whether it is private insurance or public insurance, everybody can afford it so that we get healthy and sick people pulled together, that is going to be crucial. Without that, it is going to be very hard to protect coverage of preexisting conditions. Alix to that point, if we dont get the public option to obamacare, how do we get the exchanges more competitive . Vers thatsome le can be pulled by the states, by the governments . Katherine you need everybody buying insurance who doesnt have insurance through another source. That is good for risk pooling, in terms of keeping premiums affordable by merging people of low and high risk, but it is also good to get more insurers competing in the market because they will have a bigger pool of people. Having stable subsidies so that insurers know what kind of regulatory and financing environment they are per dissipating in would be really helpful as well. All of the uncertainty around the costsharing subsidies in the financing of that through the federal government, around ratesetting and the availability of shortterm plans are not, buying across state lines or not, all of that uncertainty makes it less appealing for insurers to participate. It means there are more markets with too few competitors to drive value and keep premiums low. Guy we have enough details from the bot inside do we have enough details from the biden side . Katherine the devil really is in the details and all of this, and i think we have enough detail to know the broad brush strokes. The candidates do paint very different pictures of what they would like the Health Care System to look like. How it would look in practice, we clearly dont have a lot of detail to know what exactly premiums would be, what things would be covered, but would not be covered. I think they are very different choices presented to the american populace. We know we would get very different systems under the two candidates. Alix i dont know if i am totally clear as to what we would get under President Trump. He has been promising and alternative for four years. What is our best guess at this point . Clearly realeres resistance to having an expanded government role, and i think it does seem clear that it is very hard to increase the number of people who are insured in the u. S. And have access to Health Care Without increasing Government Spending on redistribute it insurance programs. It could be public insurance like medicaid or expanding medicare. That does not seem to be what the Trump Administration would favor. It could be through substantial dollar subsidies for purchasing private insurance, but we havent seen a lot of proposals to increase spending on that. Theres some magical thing can on both sides of the aisle that somehow we are going to be able to expand access to care and coverage and he quality of care without devoting any more resources to it, without curtailing innovation and without access to any kind of care. I dont think that seems realistic. I think we need to acknowledge that Health Care Costs money, and if we want more widespread distribution of access to care, we are going to have to fund at least part of it with public dollars, and we are going to have to be restrictive about the kinds of care that people can get through those Public Programs, which is a terrible thing to have to wrestle with, that you simply cant afford Public Programs that would cover everything for everyone, because that is more than 100 of gdp. Guy depends how you do it, as we learned here in the u. K. With the nhs. We are going to have to leave it here. Katherine baicker of the university of Chicago Harris School of public policy, we appreciate your time. Thanks very much. This is bloomberg. Ritika guptais with your Bloomberg Business flash. Lori l reported eighth loreal reported a surprise increase in sales after months of lockdowns. We spoke with loreals ceo. We are trying to navigate through this crisis, and we are still confident that we should be able to deliver a positive second half of this year, and we are preparing also for positive and dynamic next year. Ritika another Strong Quarter for the traders at barclays. The Security Division reported a 23 jump in currency rates and creditrating income in the third quarter. That helped barclays beat earnings estimates. The bank also took a smaller impairment charge than expected. Wells fargo is exploring the sale of its Asset Management unit, according to a person briefed on the matter. The division could fetch more than 3 billion. That is your latest Bloomberg Business flash. Alix thanks so much. Time now for futures in focus. We are taking a look at Bitcoin Futures. I should point out that Bitcoin Futures are a really small percentage of what actually makes up going trading, but makes up bitcoin trading, but what we are seeing is interesting. We have a chart that shows open interest and price. Typically, if you have the moving together, that tends to mean some thing like organic demand, a new long coming in. Are able to break out more . Marks, soese 13,000 you could be in overbought territory. Guy technically i am told we are in overbought territory, but this is bitcoin, so who knows . But the logic is certainly there, as we City Government debt levels around the world going up and up at a rapid rate. You would have thought the devaluation or debasement certainly becomes more likely. Therefore, in theory, and you could make the argan for gold, but the argument for gold, but that doesnt seem to be holding up that well, that you want to be buying into bitcoin and other such products. I wonder whether that is what is driving things at the moment, or whether we are back to speculative fervor. But it is interesting that potentially at this moment, there would seem to be a little more logic than what is happening. Alix it also raises the question of what is a good inflation trade. If you have a lot of money printing all around the world, what is the best inflation trade . It used to be gold, overall commodities. Now you have to factor in bitcoin specifically, not necessarily its area or ripple, necessarily ethereum or ripple, for example. Guy it can be copper, it can be all of the other metals, but that is a real sore value in some ways. We will talk to a guy who knows something about this a little later on Mike Novogratz is going to be joining bloomberg, galaxy investment partners, at six clock p. M. This is bloomberg at 6 00 p. M. This is bloomberg. Guy from london, im guy johnson. Alix steel is a new york. We are counting you down to the european close on bloomberg markets. Frances daily case count rising above 40,000. U. S. Cases surging past 70,000, i think at 77,000. America is a lot bigger than france. Germany leaning past 12,000. Reports suggest france is preparing a compromise on fisheries. The pound swinging around this afternoon. Weve actually got Dollar Strength as the session progresses. Earnings a big driver out of europe today. Surprise numbers coming through from barclays, daimler, to name but a few. All of those Companies Really delivering. Renault trading lower. Barclays up really sharply. On the week, both european markets and u. S. Markets are down. The s p currently absolutely flat. Banki