Intense in various parts certainly whales, if you are talking about the u. K. And scotland, certainly the north of england. What we are going to be looking for todays further details, various tiers of lockdown from the chancellor. Tom so if i ferry across the it is a london centered london trying to make rules for the north. Has opened, and this up decadesold tensions between the north and the south very clearly. There were clearly tensions on t front opened up by the places that have been very much marginally slightly devolves come if you would like. A new mayor has been appointed, and now this is a test of these guys. Tom there was a discussion devolving me at the house last night. With first word news, here is ritika gupta. Ritika the second and final president ial debate is tonight in nashville, one of the final highprofile chances for President Trump to change the narrative of the campaign. Polls show him losing to joe biden. Debate rules have changed. The candidates microphones will be muted when another candidate is speaking. The president claims this is unfair. He said the same thing about the choice of the topics and the moderator, which is nbcs kristen welker. Nancy pelosi and Steven Mnuchin have made further progress on a coronavirus stimulus package. But Senate Republicans are reluctant to embrace any deal that is led by pelosi. Lang which for the bill would have to be dropped drafted by the weekend if lawmakers are to vote on it before election day. Democrats on the Senate JudiciaryCommittee Plan to show their unhappiness with supreme barrett. Inee amy coney republicans have a majority on the movee panel, so will not prevent the nomination from moving ahead. In the u. K. , talks of rishi sunak will help will give more help to businesses. More funds for firms under brittons two tears. It bends mixing between separate households indoors. Global news 24 hours a day, on air and at bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more im ritikauntries, gupta. This is bloomberg. Tom lets get the data, the data for Goldman Sachs continues to have my thai today is an absolute my bowtie today is an absolute disaster. Come on, anna, tell me that. 3 of the annual operating income, dont hold me to that operating number. It gives you the scope and scale of that size with the goldman sach find. The vix still not out. It is 29. 3 on the vix. Other than that, it is one great noodle. Yields a little bit. Anna, i have nothing to talk about except youre stronger poundsterling. Anna that is certainly a feature of the last 24 hours. Today a little bit weaker, 1. 31, around there. We are weaker for a fourth day, concern around the virus, concern around a contested election in your part of the world seems to be weighing on sentiment. We have had reporting season getting into gear here in europe. I put unilever in here. Not bad when equity markets move to the downside. They make cleaning product and ice cream, both of which we apparently need to get us through pandemics. Let us get into our conversation with our next guest, Peter Schaffrik, who joins us. We heard from tom a little bit about the expectation, whether we will hear from the chancellor this morning, a little bit more on support. From a big picture perspective, looking at the u. K. As a whole, what is it that we want to get a sense of when we hear from the treasury, from the chancellor, how much there is a willingness to support households, i guess, through the winter . Peter first of all, good morning. Problems that the u. K. Faces when it chancellor can do something is on the one hand the employees that are being impacted by this, and we have seen earlier that he rolled out this followon scheme, the furlough scheme will close, so that part has been taken care of. Think they would debate is not sufficient. And of course the other part is employers, the Smaller Companies struggling badly. We had a support package in the early days of the pandemic, and obviously time has moved on, and lots of companies now, particularly after renewed forced i dont want to say closures, but forced restrictions that way on businesses, they need support. More going to be a bit allencompassing than just dollars in the two or three areas. Is interesting. From a global perspective, you have a chancellor dealing with the disincentive, the unexpected consequences of the support programs he has already put in place, and perhaps there are other illicit makers globally dealing with those challenges. If you make it too attractive to have your business closed versus keeping it open, perhaps that private ides disincentive, and maybe that is what policymakers in various parts of the globe are trying to deal with at the moment. Peter it is certainly one of the elements, and i would bring in another one, which is the cost of it. Particularly in the u. K. , less so on the continent of europe. We already have a lively debate about the costs of the entirety of the programs and how it will be taken care of. Particularly the treasury over here seems to be very cognizant of that. I am really curious to see what exactly the details will be. Tom buried in your Good Research note is a real fight for next year, driven forward by the member of the bank of england in recent days, which is the likelihood probability or the courage, the fear of negative rates in 22 anyone. 2021. In is it feasible in the United States or the United Kingdom where it remains untouched . I would definitely separate the two jurisdictions you just mentioned because i think the structure, particularly of the money market of the financial industry in general in the u. S. Is very different than on the continent of europe and also the u. K. For the u. S. , i dont think this will be a life debate anytime soon. But for the u. K. It is very different. Mpc, theyember strong have publicly come out and said that they would vote for it, but they have said they in general support the idea. We know there are a few others, and we get to hear from two of them today, sitting a bit more on the fence. But we in the house, we think negative rates will be implemented in 2021 in the u. K. Tom does the United Kingdom have a Money Market Fund or money Market Portfolio structure that can withstand that call . Peter in contrast to the u. S. , it is much more bank based. It looks much more like the continent of europe, where the majority of term deposits organized deposits particular by retail accounts are being held at banks rather than in money market instruments. So i think what you do with that, you enforce some of the costs onto the financial system, and the idea is that it can bear its way in an institutional system. Funds are being withdrawn quickly and the system comes tumbling down. So the problem doesnt really exist either on the continent of europe or in the u. K. Anna so you think we will see negative Interest Rates in the u. K. Is it the difference between deal or no deal, or is it the gap between the two that is not big enough to make the definitive factor to make that the definitive factor . For a start, i think it is definitely part of the equation, but it is not the only one. You look at the performance of all of the economies in europe currently, they are not doing too well, and the u. K. Is no exception. Particularly, we think the labor market backdrop doesnt look that great. The followon scheme, we think, is falling short of supporting consumption going forward. So we reckon that even without the brexit put into the equation, we are going to struggle anyway with high unemployment. Mix you put brexit into the , and as i sit on your radio show earlier, i dont think that the situation that we have is that even if you get some kind of a deal done at the end of the day, it is not going to be that allencompassing deal that we were looking for 12 or 18 months ago. It is not going to be tariff free access to the market and so on. He will be a good part of downward pressure on the economy extended from brexit on top of that. Therefore we think if you take this all together, the bank will look to stimulate the economy further. We reckon able do qe first in the upcoming meeting in november, but then going into next year, we reckon it will be. Anna it is definitely going to be sector specific, the extent of whether you will be affected by the deal or no deal. In terms of unemployment, there is a difference between the u. K. And the u. S. Right now, the extent to which economies have been protected from high unemployment levels, and the u. K. Certainly has been up to now. This gets us back to what we hear from the chancellor, because people are talking about 7 on the plumbing, 8 , people suggesting he could go as high as 10 . What are your thoughts . Peter first of all, if you look at the amount of people that are currently on furlough in the u. K. , it is still close to 10 of the workforce. Obviously not everyone of those individuals are going to be laid off, but what we do see is as the support from the furlough scheme drops away, we see more unemployment coming through. Again, perching early because you made the comparison with the u. S. Because you made the comparison with the u. S. , because that what is what they are talking about with the next stimulus package, in the u. K. , the support with those people finally going into unemployment is relatively mediocre. We do know that the savings rate has gone up, so there is a bit of caution here, but when everything is said and done, consumption will take hits. When that happens, you hit the entire economy. Tom peter, thank you so much. We will continue with peter with Peter Schaffrik. It will be quite a shock to see negative rates out of the city, the United Kingdom as well. It is an eventful day. Kevin cirilli is in nashville and will come to us from delmont university. From belmont university. Futures 11. This is bloomberg. You are getting this big bounce back from the third quarter. The second quarter, of course. And i think the natural assumption is that you have well above trend growth again in the fourth quarter, and in the first on. Ter, following tom managing the message, the gentleman from st. Louis, always interesting. This to bully or of the mr. Bullard of the st. Louis fed. The call for negative Interest Rates in the United Kingdom, and the vicinity of 2021, Peter Schaffrik is with us right now. All of this is fine, and all of fine withic talk is the officials who spoke yesterday. What do you then do in fixed income if that is the outlook and that is the call . Negative Interest Rates tells me price up, yelled down. That is a good thing, right . Peter it depends on who you are, of course, but yes, we think there is ace there is still a scope of performance, particularly on the short end of the u. K. Market, but also down the curve. That before a call for negative Interest Rates would be made, we would get another round of qe. So we have the bank meeting coming up soon, and we think the qe envelope that is running out, the current envelope is running out at the end of this year will be increased by 100 billion. If i look at what is priced in on short end currency, i think if the markets sort of started to become really convinced that negative rates are coming, that will be closer to 30, 35 from here. I think that is still significant potential in the u. K. Fixed income market. Tom is Dividend Growth and in europe there is less Dividend Growth than perhaps there is in the United States but is Dividend Growth a yield proxy . Peter i guess it is in certain sectors, but one of the things particularly as you mentioned dividends that we have to keep in mind, particularly in europe, some sectors, but securely the financial sector, have been curtailed in what they can pay in their dividends. So obviously that has broadened that has distorted the metric temporarily. Overall i think you can use that to some degree in the proxy. Anna has it not been a great for a great year perhaps investment for investors. Sectors that have typically paid out those big dividends and things there. Where do income investors go now, peter . If i stay in the fixed income market i know you are trying to go to the equity market but if i stay for one moment in the fixed income market, this means to me that the entire push out the yield curve and up the credit spectrum, that will continue. You will continue to see pressure on all sorts of fixed income spreads, with proper corporate credit, financial come as we have seen for quite a while. Then of course if you go out of the fixedincome world, all of those come as tom just mentioned, do still pay relatively healthy dividends. I reckon in an environment where rates will stay low for years, and growth is going to be hampered, at least in the near term, these are the instruments that will continue to shine. Anna i am just drawn to a headline we have across the bloomberg that the bank of england chief economist andy , saying we have nothing new to say about the bank of england negative rates. For we thank mr. Haldane watching this morning. Anna next to give him that right of reply. You were talking about the credit spectrum, peter. Big companies, even when things are going to get tough, they go to the markets, they can look for they can issue debt there. That is not the place to worry, it is more the small to medium caps. Peter i think that is absently right. The further into the Big Companies with relatively the further into investment you are at how it haslook been tilted, high yields relatively speaking have been as supportive as the larger companies. Put credit into the mix, all of these kinds of deals have been sought after. I think you are absolutely right. That is one of the key reasons announcement is important. The Smaller Companies in the Public Market and those without, those are the ones that end up struggling more in this environment, no doubt. So our conversation anna so our conversation goes. A. Thank you for that. PetePeter Schaffrik. Thank you for that. This is bloomberg. Ritika this is bloomberg surveillance. It was a fifth straight quarter of profit for tesla. The electric car maker easily beat wall street estimates, and the company says it is on track to deliver 500,000 cars this year. The earnings streak could add momentum for teslas inclusion into the s p 500 index. Shares are up more than 400 this year. Another fine for Goldman Sachs another fine for Goldman Sachs. This time regulars in hong kong have find goldman 350 billion. They accuse the firm of failures regarding bond offerings. Earlier this week, the u. S. Find 1 billion in the imdb case. The one and be the case. Launching, Jeffrey Katzenberg raised millions for investors. But it never attracted enough viewers. That is your latest Bloomberg Business flash. Ritika gupta with your business flash. Back to data and we have equity markets under pressure,. 7 , down for a fourth day in a row. Over contested election concerns, probability concerns perhaps for european business, although that was a highlight come and really ongoing virus concerns around europe. Data, buttle bit of also an incredibly important headline. They have said that they have done what they said they were going to do. Can you imagine if they would do that towards four dollars a shot or five dollars, whatever . That is a really important headline in this pandemic, and we say good morning to peter hotez of baylor in texas, who has been meeting this lowcost charge of a vaccine. Dell futures negative seven. This is bloomberg. We have confirmed some Voter Registration information has been obtained by iran, and separately by russia. This data can be used by foreign actors to attempt to communicate false information to registered voters. Tom the gentleman from texas last night. We are thrilled thomas gift is for us from ucla interpretation. What i thought was so important about this announcement on mr. Radcliffe had a front run of what was believed to be news organizations putting out this information. Rubio and warner said they simply want to sew chaos in the United States. It can they actually do that . Is that Strong Language accurate of what russians or iranians can do to the u. S. Election process . Its charged the language, but we need to be vigilant about outside actors and the role they play in intervening in u. S. Campaigns. Which leds in 2016 eventually to a lot of investigations on how we can safeguard the u. S. Elections, about concerns and potential ways in which the trunk campaign may have colluded with russia. This is an issue always, but on in heels of what happened 2016, there needs to be some talk on this central issue. Tom i believe the president onight will have debate Foreign Policy. Does Foreign Policy matter this year to the voters in the United States . Foreign policy is always central, but i think donald trump really governed as a domestic president. The primary challenge at home as the coronavirus. That extends beyond the u. S. Border as well. This is a domestic and international challenge. International policies are significant. What were dealing with with iran, climate change, the rise of china, trade wars, all of those issues are legitimate questions for voters to want to get more information about. Trump is making the case that hes not getting any opportunity to discuss those issues. Of thehat do you think chances good morning by the way. What you think of the chances of the contested outcome . This is the something the something market was preoccupied with until a few weeks ago. The market became less concerned but it seems back on their radar. How many clues have we got on that front . I think the odds of there being a contested election are the direct function of the polls. As long as biden can maintain a relatively healthy lead, the markets will be less of a concern. Ultimately, this is a moot point if biden wins in a landslide. This is not ane, impossibility. You can see why there could be concerns about both concerned about this. Both sides would be lawyered up for that outcome. Donald trump said he wanted to push through the confirmation of Amy Coney Barrett so that she could rule on any potential electionrelated case. It is certainly the case that both sides are at the very least going to be primed and ready for a close election outcome that will be adjudicated in some of the courts. That we are going to see theyre going headtohead with a little more distance between them later on this evening. How much does this format really decide what happens in the election, thomas . Ive read various pieces recently that suggests a lot of what happens online is important in in viewing in informing peoples views these days. What are they thinking . Undecideds only about 2 to 8 of the vote right now. That is much lower than 2016 when the number was in double digits. Additionally, there are over 30 million americans that have already voted nationally. With that said, these debates garner considerable attention. This is the last opportunity really that the two candidates are going to meet primetime with the voters to make their final plea to the election. If you are donald trump, you need to not squander this opportunity. He needs to make up ground at the polls. If you are joe biden, play it safe, maintain frontrunner status, and try to keep this. Tom whats a mute button do . This is a major source of conversation. Everybody at home once to mute me now. What does a mute button do in the debate . I dont want to mute you, but i think a lot of americans want to lower the volume on american politics as a whole. Maybe this mute button is a metaphor for that. Essentially, the mute button will be used so neither candidate can interrupt the other. I think trump and biden will have an opportunity to go back and forth, but one byproduct of the button is that it might turn the debate into a joint press conference, one where the and furs one where the answers are more [inaudible] i think this format with the mute button might be a blessing in disguise by saving him from some of these performances he gave in the purse debate first base. Tom i think you are dead on, a huge benefit for the president. Thomas gift, thank you for your perspective. Professor at ucl. I love having him on with that perspective. Claims at 8 30, with our news in new york city. Here is ritika gupta. All the president ss visors are urging him to change his tactics for tonights debate in nashville. They are said to have told him to train his aggressive demeanor for a lower key style. Trade his aggressive demeanor for a lower key style. The president trailed in the polls and the debate is one of the last chances for him to turn things around. His firstobama made in Person Campaign appearance for joe biden. He ripped into President Trump at an event in philadelphia. I get this president once economydit for the he inherited and zero blame for the pandemic you guard. The job doesnt work that way. Screaming at the television doesnt fix things. Ritika the former president will campaign for biden in florida saturday and next week. The top u. S. Spy chief is accusing iran in meddling in the election. John radcliffe says the Islamic Republic faked a series of intimidating messages to two democratic voters. Both iran and russia have obtained Voter Registration information. Tehran is already using it. Europe is bracing for a surge of coronavirus cases to hit hospitals, but authorities are worried they dont have enough medical staff to handle it. During the first wave of the pandemic, clinics came up with spare beds. Governments push manufacturers to make ventilators in face masks. A shortage of doctors, nurses, and technicians are putting services to the test. Global news, 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. I am ritika gupta. This is bloomberg. Anna, tom . Tom really interesting, folks, what will it mean for the former president to campaign for his Vice President . This will have to be watched very carefully. There is a huge american tradition of its, but there is something different. I like what one of the fox stations said locally out of philadelphia where they called obama the motivator and chief for the democratic party. What are the thoughts in london on this traditional appearance by a former president . Anna it is traditional, isnt it . I suppose it would make more headlines in london if it were somebody speaking out against their own party. It comes with the kind of, well they would say that, wouldnt they . Certainlytivation is there. He had such a different style to joe biden. Maybe it works. Me inrancine would put the surveillance timeout chair for saying time fixture tie on the break. Im going to fix my tie. There we are. We have much more coming up today. The excitement of Kevin Cirilli in nashville. Belmont university, a really d institute with look for that at 8 30. Futures at 10. This is bloomberg. Good morning. Anna this is bloomberg surveillance. I am anna edwards in london. Francine lacqua is off today. The u. K. And eu are to resume talks on postbrexit trade deals after Boris Johnson suspended the discussions. Cross said negotiators will begin daily discussions today. Conversationof the in the last 24 hours. Turning us now is edward evans, brexit editor. Its a busy day on the policy front, edward. Weve been talking a lot about from what we have heard what we are going to hear from the chancellor. It seems as though the door had been shot or only slightly ajar for brexit negotiations over the last week or so. We hear from michel barnier, who says the doors open again. Whered we had now . Edward the changes weve had this week are ones of process. Go into thed to final phase of negotiations and agreed to work on the actual agreement. Theyve agreed to discuss all issues. Thats a big bottleneck in the negotiations. Ofare now in three weeks intense discussions where the sides tried to come up with the deal. While there are changes in process, on matters of substance, there has not been change. We have big arguments over big areas of the disagreement areas of disagreement. France is determined to go on having the same access to [inaudible] we still have very big bus stops to come in a short period of time. Anna plenty of room for drama still on the story that keeps on giving. What about the preparedness of business . Even if we do get the deal, because of the nature of it, the limited scope of the deal, there will be huge change, wont there . In some sectors in particular. Give us a sense of how prepared business is or not. Edward whether or not there is that will change everything, customs check, customs paperwork, just for starters. You have product certification and for the first time in a generation. Business suddenly have to realize that, and it is quite clear on the custom side that they are facing difficulties. Tesla and heinz are struggling to find people to process the actual [inaudible] they will need whatever happens at the end of this year, and theyre not alone. Theres a shortage to do this. They are in a very difficult heldion, and government the Court Business leaders this week and it did not go but did not go well. They dont have the details a government that they need to prepare a government essentially saying we expect you to be ready for this and embrace the opportunity. Fishery is a contentious issue. Im fascinated on how they speak or who speaks in europe. Mr. Mccraw and the europe and europe are upset about fisheries, do they have to speak to london or go through a bureaucracy for them to speak to london . Who speaks on fisheries for europe . Edward that will be the question. That will be the question in the eu, much of a fight between Member States, france, netherlands, and so on, that have an interest in this. The rest might have a stronger interest in getting a trade deal. Barnier is leading the take hisons and will cue from eu Member States. Where hel be an issue will have to return to Member States and say if you want to have a deal, there needs to be a compromise on fish. [inaudible] to rule not impossible out that mccrone comes into the latest in the next three weeks and stages some grand protest on fish. We have had protests from mccrone on these brexit negotiations. Tom edward evans, thank you very much. Our Bloomberg Brexit editor. Greatly appreciate that update. At the end of the year, that will become more interesting as well. , the ernst rmine young chairmen, there is a little bit to talk about with earnst young. They are unfortunately in the news. Isthe 3 00 hour, this bloomberg, good morning. This is bloomberg surveillance, i am ritika gupta. Two bronzeg, the line of hsbcs main office have returned. The statues were painted and set on fire. It took almost 10 months to repair the lions. Bloomberg was there when the on chronic the iconic statues are unveiled. The reason were standing outside the headquarters here in hong kong, as you see it behind me, it is this bronze lion. The reason we are here today is because the two lions have been unveiled after maintenance and restoration. You may have heard and seen the pictures of the protest, the violent protests in some cases, and in the nutshell, these liions took the brunt lions took the brunt of some of this. They are back in the public eye. They stood ground for the better part of the last century. They only disappeared from public eye less than a handful of times. Its quite a significant day, not just for the bank, which hopefully as the banks and their s haveent, these lion stood here in good and bad. Hopefully this ushers in a new period of civility for the economy and for the city. That is your Bloomberg Business flash. Tom, anna . Tom thank you so much. This is a joy, its an essay needed in this political season, the candidates are natural tonight. It is tennessee transformed by the medical industry, the Service Sector part of nashville. There is the explosion of industry in texas and i mean thats almost in a 19thcentury way. Then, there is the west. Has reallykler massaged the data of the west that we in the east dont understand. What dont we understand about idaho . To be one ofappens the most internationally minded states in the u. S. That is because it is engaged with the world. Its great to be with you, tom. Thank you very much. One of the most striking things, it is the fastestgrowing state in terms of population but also happens to be a powerhouse exporting to the rest of the world. Oft is largely because Companies Like micron technology, based in boise, idaho, which is a major tip maker major chipmaker. It is not just potatoes. Tom thats a good idea. Across all of your work in this essay on arizona and utah as well, part of the great challenge in this political season is the pesky democrats moving to republican states. Do you and chin pay understanding the tip point where idaho becomes democratic . Matt look, wherever you see diversity, and business brings diversity, wherever there is Business Diversity there will be a collation diversity. Is just a natural outgrowth. That is what idaho, utah, and arizona have in common. , butna is much larger these are states that are becoming increasingly diverse. When they become diverse, their politics changes well. Change as well. What you have seen in idaho, the percentage of democrats who have registered in the past four what youdouble roughly are seeing in republican party. That is because of this diversity we are talking about. Anna good morning, matt. Reading your piece made me ask questions about the link between how an economy performs and an electorates willingness or propensity to vote for the incumbent. The ad is used to be it is all about the economy. You talk about the economy is doing well but put that in a pandemic context, and a trade war context, and it starts to look more complicated. Matt of course it is. The pandemic certainly does not help and does not help idaho, because the trade war with china that trump initiated has hurt microns business because huawei is a company we know very well was one of its biggest customers. Suffered at the expense of these trade wars. You see that in the export category. Becomingess, idaho is a diverse economy, regardless of what trump does or regardless of the trade wars. That is only trade wars. Thats only going to mean the population in idaho is going to become more diverse. Tom this is a terrific short read about loads of data about what we dont understand for those of us in the east, what we dont understand about the explosive growth of the west. We will have that for you today. I believe in the next hour, the chancellor will speak. Is this a big deal or another day at the races in the commons . Anna it could be both. Its a big deal when you see government stepping in and the way they have done to shield economies from the pandemic, but we have seen some of that before. Hes coming possibly with another solution. Tom organ i have to see. Anna edwards, thank you so much. We continue on surveillance. Lots to talk about. I think Kevin Cirilli is on his way to the pancake pantry to get charged up for an eventful day in nashville. David westin has our coverage tonight. In the next hour, encouraged to invest in stay invented. Our next guest is the chief investmentofficer of funds. The vix is under 30. This is bloomberg. Good morning. So youre a small business, or a big one. You were thriving, but then. Oh. Ah. Okay. Plan, pivot. How do you bounce back . You dont, you bounce forward, with serious and reliable internet. Powered by the largest gig Speed Network in america. But is it secure . Sure its secure. And even if the power goes down, your connection doesnt. So how do i do this . You dont do this. We do this, together. Bounce forward, with comcast business. From new york and london, good. This is bloomberg surveillance, live on bloomberg television, lisa, imtom and jonathan ferro. Francine lacqua is off today. To go we have 12 days and debate in tennessee. Tom yields are coming in all the latest higher yields, a 10 year jump point. A. 1 . Im suggesting is a political focus but you have to keep your eyes on these correlations. Mention that speaks to the agony of so much of america. Jonathan 25 seconds into the program and we get to her favorite topics, stimulus. A 48hour deadline that keeps rolling. And are we going to continue to attribute market moves to this ongoing rolling deadline with the sam