In placen, and the fog on fiscal stimulus. It has crept up on us after the dueling debates of last week, but there it is on thursday in nashville, with a mute button. It will be interesting. Jonathan we know this campaign is unhappy, not with the mute button, but with the topics. They want this debate to be about Foreign Policy. I imagine the president wants that to be about Foreign Policy, and he will do his best to make it just about that. Tom he will do that. You wonder if it will be the uproar over the bidens in the out york post article front of our giuliani interview the other day, but help me here, lisa. This is really important. Does Foreign Policy matter in a president ial election . I am not sure it does. Lisa i would argue in this case it does, not so much with russia, but with china. We have seen an increasing amount of betting on the chinese economy, not because they have handled the virus arguably better than we have come about because they believe joe biden will be a little bit looser when it comes to policy. I think we still have to keep watching the data, though. Jonathan lets talk about the data. Numbers out of Procter Gamble right now, boosting your on your revenue to 4 to 5 positive. We cut companies out there still doing well, and parts of this economy still on fire. Lisa one of those big areas has been housing. We are getting Housing Starts and Building Permits for the month of september at 8 30 a. M. We might see a bit of a cooling as a result of the wildfires. I do knew that at the home of the keanes, they will be taking a new mortgage. Tom this is really important at Procter Gamble. Theyve got a next pop here with the length of the pandemic. I think that is endemic of what is happening not in tech. Jonathan i got really worried for a moment and thought a dog might be sent my way, when you said he was moving out. [laughter] view. Ifting their lisa it will be interesting to see whether they stayathome trade, the fact that everybody and their mother has a netflix account, the idea of how much that has continued with momentum with their stock. It is another day in the markets, so we are going to be talking about fiscal support debates, and this is the deadline later today, the new deadline. Jonathan is it . Lisa thats for you to decide. Jonathan is . . It a deadline is it a deadline . Lisa if they dont get anything done today, what are the changes they get anything done before the election . What if they agree on a bill and then Mitch Mcconnell doesnt sign off on it or push it through . There is still plenty of uncertainty. Jonathan i agree. I thought the deadline was the end of july, but that came and went very quickly. Equities doing nicely. Equity futures near session highs, up 27. We advance 0. 8 . I think theres a story here that is remarkable. What is happening in europe right now, lockdowns, restrictions across the u. K. Come across the continent. France, italy, spain. The euro still retaining a 1. 18 handle going into some data which hasnt even looked good before all of this. It is just something to look out for. In the bond market, zero. 70 on the 10 year yield, even with all market,alk the bond 8 on the 10 year yield, even with all of that talk. Joining us now, Amy Wu Silverman, Rbc Capital Markets equity derivative strategist. Then testers get you with us on the program fantastic to get you with us on the program. Volatility was so elevated a few weeks ago. Then we faded. Then we came back a little bit more. What is the approach now . Amy it has been fascinating to watch because the last time we spoke, the Options Market was clearly pricing a contested and protracted election with uncertainty very high in december. That has completely gone away now, and the Options Market is pricing the fairly boring term structure, which makes me a little bit nervous, which two weeks to go until way pretty major event happening. At this point, i think we are probably underpricing the likelihood that you get that protracted contested election, and also pricing a tail event, which is that trump actually wins the election. Obviously the polls say those are less likely, but those have fatter in 2020 then another years. Tom we had the great technician on with strategas, and he was really talking about the breadth of this market improving. Do you see that on a fundamental basis . Amy i do. In august, we had unbelievably narrow breadth. It was really just all tech. Wo things changed the first is people just started putting more macro hedges simply because we have a u. S. Election, but also because we are coming into yearend. The second is as we head into the earnings season, people are , obviously still playing facebook and amazon, what have you, but they are playing other names. So we do have improvement in breadth, which helps with some of the claims we are seeing on the index level. Lisa you said we are currently probably underpricing the risk of a contested election. Thathow contested does election have to be before it royals the market before it roils the market, and how significant was the salafi . With the selloff be . Is novembereframe 20 through december 18, the time between the two auctions expert reese. We saw that three to four volatility point fully elevated relative to everything else, and now that has come down. That tells us people are not focused on that date where the state electors are supposed to set their ballots. Downside, the bets we are seeing placed has the to 10 ,own at least 5 but those are the hedges we see in the market right now. Jonathan for a lot of people outside of wall street, whenever the Amy Wu Silvermans, the duly and emmanuels the julian , you know theon story. Can you advise people outside of that world what they are meant to do going into the back half of this year . Amy i think it is just to think of it this way. Downside concern that his building, and we see that in hedges being placed, but not nearly to the extent that we would expect given this is are meant and this event. Asically, the market is not wellprepared as it normally is for these kind of downside events. The second is if you are looking to place a bet to the downside yourself, buying put options, where you are protecting against that downside, it is still relatively inexpensive because the Options Market prices for that type of production has declined and made it cheaper to do that. Tom if i look at soap, procter withine is a proxy multinationals for 10 years. Like a moonshot, png goes p g goes straight up. Is that in the textbooks you studied . [laughter] amy look, a lot of things that have happened in this market are not in the textbooks i studied. He tell us about the efficient market hypothesis, and i got into wall street and said, the markets arent that efficient unfortunately. [laughter] tom this is a really important observation. About where forget these valuations are. Some have maximum Revenue Growth or may be outward profitability, but boring stuff, whether in london or america, is just priced to perfection. We have never seen this. Jonathan theres a reason for that with some of these brands. It was always about the brands you recognize. Everyone just ran towards them in the pandemic area talking with the pepsico ceo a number of months ago about this. That was the story, gravitation towards the brands they recognize at a time of stress. How sticky that demand is i think we are about to find out. Lisa and i find it fascinating, a social study in terms of how people respond to ape endemic. Fire,sales absolutely on and the company that makes them, it is sort of a similar story to what we saw was Procter Gamble , up more than 22 . People want clean homes, and they are going to be obsessed about it. Jonathan Amy Wu Silverman of. Bc, thanks for being with us can you imagine tom cleaning the apartment . Lisa no, i cannot imagine him cleaning. Ive seen him do the dishes before. Jonathan and gardening. Ive heard someone doing the dishes when we were doing radio from home. Tom what is so sad about that, that was after two sets of doors. They left the doors open, jon. Im sorry. Jonathan cafe keene. Those were some dark days during the pandemic. Lisa i miss it. Jonathan i dont miss it at all. Tom i dont miss it at all. And thanks to our tech team are jumping through massive hoops on that remote stuff. Jonathan alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, im jonathan ferro. Hoping we dont have to hear someone making, coffee, washing the dishes afterwards. Dog comes in. Bart, bark. [laughter] the circus of several months ago in casa keene. Stiglitz hereeph on bloomberg surveillance. Ritika with the first word news, im ritika gupta. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and treasury secretary Steven Mnuchin are drawing closer to an agreement on a coronavirus release package. The two will talk again today. The deadline is set for a bill that could pass before election day. Senate republicans have been balking at the price tag. President trump and joe biden will be muted at times during thursdays debate. Each candidate will have an uninterrupted two minutes to speak at the beginning of each segment. Then both microphones will be turned on. During the first debate, president repeatedly interrupted biden, and both candidates talked over the moderator. Goldman sachs has reached a longawaited deal with the Justice Department over its role in malaysias 1mdb scandal. Goldman will pay more than 2 billion. That is broadly and nine with analysts reserves and estimates. Meanwhile, goldman will avoid a u. S. Criminal conviction. The price of oil is lower today after opec and allies warned of a precarious outlook for the market. Russias Energy Minister says demand has been hit again by the coronavirus. Add almost 2to Million Barrels a day to the market starting in january, but now that could be delayed. Global news 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. Im ritika gupta. This is bloomberg. Pres. Trump dont forget dr. Fauci, what he said is dont close to china. I said no, dr. Fauci. Your wonderful man. I closed it. I saved thousands of lives. En. Harris he was informed that it was contagious and air bound, and what did he do . He stood at rallies and stood before the American People and didnt tell you what he knew. Jonathan President Trump in inzona and Kamala Harris north carolina. Two hours away from the opening bell this tuesday morning. Near session highs on the s p 500. We drift higher. Yields drifting higher 0. 78 on the 10 year. 1. 1811. This from hsbc in the last couple of minutes. We are technically most optimistic on the u. S. And asia in credit and equities, but much less so on europe. That seems to be the story for many people. Tom hsbc with some wonderful calls there. And of course, steve major with the call that west ham would come back against the tots this weekend, which they did. Jonathan did you hear that . He had a nice little dig at you yesterday. Tom he did. He really went at it. Kevin cirilli with us. He has been with us so often, the chief washington correspondent. I want to go narrow right now. The republican from north carolina, mr. Tillis, has really had a backandforth with mr. Trump. He is in a horrific race in north carolina. Does he want the president of the United States to campaign for him, or is trump a liability . Kevin i dont think he knows, and that is a brilliant point. A poll came out that has joe biden leading in the battleground state of north trumps by 2 , 48 to 46 . Coupled with this intense battle , brawl, use whatever adjective you want to use their come up between senator thom tillis against cal cunningham, the democratic challenger. They are in a brawl. Theres a texting scandal with the democrat. It is playing out on the local newspapers. So goes north carolina, that could be a clear indicator of the tightening of this race. We are looking at the National Polls. We got to throw out the National Polls right now. This is about battleground polls. This about a 2 spread in north carolina, a 3 to 4 spread in michigan, and a tightening of the race in wisconsin. Tom as a proxy, do these two candidates want there to president ial candidates on the same podium with them at a social distance . Kevin look, i dont have the reporting. I havent reached out to either campaign. But i think the president , who is going to be appearing likely in south carolina, is sending a clear signal to Senate Judiciary thatman Lindsey Graham this is when the chips are falling where they are. You are either with him or against him. That is baked into both sides of the perception. I want to go even more granular. I want to go to nevada district two. It is a rural district in a battleground state. Democrats are eager to carry nevada. But that is where there is an uptick in covid19 cases. Youve got to remember, new york city, the citiwes the cities got whacked with covid first earlier this year. Now we are seeing in the johns ankins University Data increase throughout the midwest, the south. Battleground areas, but also a big unknown for how voters are going to interpret some of these cases, and how that will impact, if at all, turn out on election day. Tom just so you know, theres more jacket lope more jackelope in the Second District of nevada than there are people. [laughter] jonathan everyplace you name, there is more money, more dollars. It makes me wonder whether the president has enough left in the tank to fight these battles. Kevin that is a great point. I think you have seen this reality, this reassessment in terms of what the top advisors to the president have had him color his campaign trail events with, which is essentially trying to portray himself now as the political outsider to the donor class, who wont be beholden to donors. That is reminiscent of what he did back in 2016. You cant talk about nevada without talking about sheldon adelson, and how he has poured 75 million into this race. I just remember back when everyone, as a political reporter, you would look at the Weather Forecast or the traffic maps for turnout. Now we are all looking at the terminal charge with covid19 cases and upticks in cases for the various districts. Lisa another thing that is happening sooner than the election is this deadline that jon and i were denigrating earlier. Is it even really a deadline . This idea that treasury secretary mnuchin from the middle east and nancy pelosi will have to come to a deal today to get a fiscal support done by the election. What does this really mean, given the fact that Mitch Mcconnell has to get enough support in the senate from republicans to sign off on this . Kevin it is a long shot because it is being presented as a long shot. The second point i would make here is the calculation that Speaker Pelosi is making, should this have to wait until after the election, the political landscape, i cant stress this enough, just how the shifting of Political Capital amongst all of the various players at the negotiating table will look a lot different after the election. We dont know which way. We dont know the spread or whether or not there will be a mandate for either one of the parties. But there will without question be a shifting of Political Capital after the election in terms of these negotiations. Mcconnellis leader even a part of these conversations, or does he just sit them out . I hear your point. Loseeeping his cards c to vest, he is part of the conversation, and that is classic leader mcconnell style. He is a wall, so to speak. You go to texas, you talk to the texas energy community, the texas csuite community, they are very apprehensive as to why all of this money has to be injected into the economy upwards of 2 trillion. They are very wary of that. They are playing a long game. I am not saying it is right or wrong. Ofy are playing a long game after the election, a Republican Party that is going to be looking for which direction to go been. There are reminiscent condors and ties of what happened in 2008 with the tea party. Good to hearin, from you. We keep coming back to the same story. That is the voice that matters, and we havent heard enough of it, leader mcconnell. Media, goes back to the and i think im as guilty of this as anybody who is fixated on the popular vote. This is about the electoral votes in the power of the senate. Right now they are very powerful. He wants to maintain that. Jonathan from london and new york this morning, good morning. This is bloomberg surveillance , this is bloomberg surveillance. So youre a small business, or a big one. You were thriving, but then. Oh. Ah. Okay. Plan, pivot. How do you bounce back . You dont, you bounce forward, with serious and reliable internet. Powered by the largest gig Speed Network in america. But is it secure . Sure its secure. And even if the power goes down, your connection doesnt. So how do i do this . You dont do this. We do this, together. Bounce forward, with comcast business. Jonathan from london and new york, for our audience worldwide, good morning. Live on bloomberg tv and radio, alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, im jonathan ferro. Two hours away from the cash open in new york, futures are up by 0. 7 on the s p 500. Zero firmer, dollar weaker through much of the weekend. In the bond market, yields higher by a single basis point at 0. 7824 . In d. C. Reak down brexit, we wont mention that. We are waiting for the noise to pass. Seema shah of global principal investors ways investors weighs in. Tight. S [laughter] of td bank joins us. Market expectations seem to lean on vaccine approval late this year that would start the normalization process. I believe we have more mccormick thus now. Tom what is so important here is to remember currencies trade in pairs. This is really foundational. Klein, a giant, william emeritus of the peterson institute, who wrote a paper on this. People who suggest bold moves in a foreignexchange piece like the dollar often are wrong. Can you call many big figures of . Eak dollar into the next year depends onnk it which currency you are picking, and what is the outcome of the next two weeks. It is going to have a major impact on whether the next major movie is a couple of percentage points, or whether we are still stuck in these ranges and get actual reversal of the weakness we saw in the dollar over the last couple of months. I think a lot of people are taking their chips off the table. We see vol coming off a little bit, given the scope that there could be less of a contested election, but i dont think anyone is really willing to make that decision right now. Jonathan just to tom just picked dollaryen as a proxy, it is a major identifier of global trends. The fact is they keep saying through 100, 90, even down to 85, and it doesnt happen. Why . Mark its a great question. If you take any of your fair values, they all tell you dollaryen should be at 90, 95. The problem is that is one component. Valuation is one thing of many things that drive currencies. Dollaryen right now is at five lines because the drivers that have been moving in one direction the last couple of years, whether it be equities or fixed income, those kind of things are doing opposite things now. So we are kind of seeing risk assets go up. We are seeing fixed income move in a different direction. Dollaryen is kind of sandwiched right now. It is not really trading at all within our risk models. What we are seeing is much more closely correlated with global risk dynamics. I think we still see what is most important for yen is how japanese institutions deal with the currency and deal with deal with their flow. But what we do need to see is the dynamics of capital flows shifting back into japan. So foreigners starting to buy Japanese Equities again, which is what early signs were starting to see, which i think is offsetting the yield dynamics around the world. A last thing to add is on an unhedged basis, japanese yields are just more attractive now than the average of the rest of the g10. It makes more sense to just leave your money in japan. So those forces are changing for dollaryen. Lisa that is amazing, to say that japan has value in their bond yields, considering the fact that japanification has been a dirty word for the market areally, and yet here they competitive. I want to talk about china. The offshore you want the offshore you and the offshore sinces the strongest 2018. How much will chinese authorities allow the currency to strengthen, and is this a bet on a biden win in the u. S. . Mark good question. I think a lot of it comes back to the pboc, the magnitude rather than the level. We have seen some pretty aggressive moves in dollarrenminbi this year. A lot of it does hinge on a potential blue wave. I think what a lot of the investors around the world are grappling with is that while a biden and the democrats are still hawkish on china, they will return foreign back to an orthodoxy that i think most people are kinda familiar with. The Geopolitical Uncertainty comes off a little bit, and what you have is more cooperation with your allies, but you can still kind of address china anymore hawkish like and what we have seen. I think what is important is the capital Flow Dynamics are one where there is definitely antidollar bias. We have negative real rates in the u. S. That are likely to be there for many years. If you look at the bestperforming assets your to date, it is gold in chinese equities. The chinese currency is likely strengthening of the unhedged flows that come with Foreign Investors buying Japanese Equities, which, in a world of really low yields, less Geopolitical Uncertainty, and the fact that markets have been pressing in a blue wave as a baseline scenario that is positive for global risk, that has really been very beneficial to emerging markets. Along with that, you just have the general covid crisis, which has been good for currencies in the satellite of the renminbi, if using of korea, taiwan, some of those other currencies linked to chinese growth expectations. Antidollarose two trades you described their, lets get to the third point, loo third point now. How does the euro fold into those stories at the moment . Mark at the onset, it is always relative. If you are thinking eurodollar, what are the relative drivers, it is not what people are familiar with. It is not rate differentials, not the yield curve. Part of it is equities. What you can see is unhedged etf flows into the eurozone are positive again. Top we also have in our down models is european equities are undervalued, u. S. Equities are 9 overvalued. If you layer into that the growth and mobility and the lockdown, all of that comes from covid. Those numbers are still in the euros favor. Even though we have seen anecdotal discussions of tightening lockdowns in europe, the general curve, whether it be norway, sweden, its much later than it has been in the u. S. If you map that into City Mobility trends like city mapper , looking at major european cities versus major u. S. Cities, we are still seeing more mobility in major european cities versus the u. S. If you layer into the uncertainty of the of a selection of the u. S. Election the fact that we are not getting any more stimulus at least until next year, those are all things layering into a better dynamic, where the euro is outperforming the u. S. On those relative dynamics, even though it seems like the news flow has just gotten a little bit more negative for europe. The last thing i would add is when you look at covid, the european covid curve is running very high. If you look at hospital admission rates, they are much lower than where they were in march and april, so theres much different context to the way covid is working through global economies right now. Jonathan i am just looking at the comic data. Theres a pmi on friday that could be sub 50 at a moment when everyone was hoping the recovery would still be ongoing. On fiscal stimulus and what it aans for the u. S. Dollar, blue wave, fiscal stimulus, all that good stuff. Dollar bearish. Is that the equation for you, or is it different . Mark i think blue wave is definitely dollar bearish. You are reducing that Geopolitical Uncertainty, which really helps the emerging market. It also helps europe, if you think about the trade uncertainty we have had throughout the cycle. A blue wave is absolutely the most positive asset for positive aspect for risk assets. Helps those economies grow from the covid crisis. Your worst Case Scenario is probably a biden presidency and a republican senate, largely because we may have gridlock and we may actually see nothing bigger than the 500 billion that mcconnell has cited on. We are still focused on that, i think this is why markets are stuck in this range now because the blue wave is really the most likely outcome, but if biden were to win and not flip those three senate seats, we have to reduce some of the optimism that the markets have been pricing in the last couple of weeks. I think that is what we have to think about. Very good for global reflation, very good for emerging markets, very good for global equities. Global equities outperform u. S. Equities, which is why the dollar weakened and why that valuation story would kick in and dollaryen could still go lower, even in a positive reflection world. Jonathan great to catch up as always. Mark mccormick thereof td bank. I know you and i bring up the polls, and you get nervous thinking about 2016. For me, i think for market participants, the most important lesson from 2016 wasnt the polls. It was getting it wrong on not who would win the presidency, who would take over the senate, the house, but what it would for markets. We all remember that morning, waking up to that result. It wasnt that we got a red wave. It wasnt that that was the surprise. The big surprises how all of a sudden, that became really bullish for this market. Im always hesitant hearing this huge consensus about what a blue wave might mean for markets. Because when you wake up, things can change quick. Tom i grew up in a house that had a political fixation about this, and i totally disagree with what i grew up with. To me, so much more important is the actual economy, what we see the prospects of the pandemic, vaccine is way more important than the politics, other than if we actually get legitimate stimulus that is not just income substitution, but creates infrastructure. But that is a hope and a prayer right now. Jonathan and then we start to think about the administration. The treasury secretary, regulation, taxes. Buybacks, dividends, financials, the banks. Lisa i think this time is a little bit different than 2016 when it comes to what the response will be in the market. If you do get a dominant wave of democrats, you will get some sort of fiscal support bill. That is pretty much a unanimous assumption. I think the question is how long will it take before those taxes, before those potential restrictions on dividends or buybacks come into play . That is the key question, so people saying three to six months. Jonathan lisa abramowicz, october 20 quote. This time is different. Lisa i am just going to bow out and go to the bar. Which one should i go to, tom . Tom jonathan depends which at jonathan depends which exit ulee from the building. Tom got that right. [laughter] jonathan alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, im jonathan ferro. This is bloomberg. Ritika with the first word news, im ritika gupta. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and treasury secretary Steven Mnuchin are trying to beat the clock. They are narrowing their differences on a Coronavirus Relief package, but pelosi has said that by the end of today, there must be clarity on a bill if it is going to be passed by election day. Pelosi told House Democrats there are still significant areas of disagreements. It is a victory for democrats in a fight over ballots in a battleground state. A divided Supreme Court allowed a three day extension for mailin ballots in pennsylvania. Republicans wanted to reinstate the state requirement that the ballots must arrive by 8 00 p. M. On election night. Payeuropean union has to before trade talks with the u. K. Can be restarted. The British Government is holding out for more concessions. That may involve a Public Statement to mick it looked like the eu is conceding or emphasize that the two sides are suffering equals. The longest scheduled Airline Flight in the world resumes next month. Singapore airlines is restarting its 19 hour flight to new york on november 9. Singapore will use the airbus a350 for the trip to jfk airport. The airline is betting that demand will increase as the coronavirus eases in its own country. Global news 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. Im ritika gupta. This is bloomberg. We think the recovery is going to be decent. It is predicated on having some vaccine available in the First Quarter or two that is widely distributed. If that happens, you will see growth pick up so we are not in the grim reaper camp. Jonathan good morning. Alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, im jonathan ferro. Heres the price action this tuesday morning, shaping up as follows. 21,dvance on the s p 500 up up 0. 6 . In the markets, just south of 80 basis points on the 10 the 10 [cough] tom its called doing the tom keene. What in gods name are you doing, jon . Are you ok . Jonathan just about. There you go. I dont know what it was. Just choked. Should i do it again . Tom bring the market bored up again. Jonathan we will do it again. Lisa just start over. Welcome back. Jonathan futures up 21 on the s p 500, up 0. 6 . Eurodollar 1. 18. It sounds like i am selling cattle. 40 and around 0. 85. Tom you did not nail it. Robert murphy now of northwestern university, on a broader perspective. I find fascinating here is the 18, 19 Million People of new york city and Greater New York in february, march and april versus the loneliness of 800 thousand some people in north dakota. Is the pandemic the same now in north dakota, where i am told it is horrific, is what we saw in new york city . Robert on a per capita basis, yes. What is happening in these states and the west, they dont have that many people, but on a per capita basis, it is worse than what new york is. Tom what is the solution here . It is completely different medicine. Fargo is not the upper east side, the upper west side, etc. What is the approach out there to get control that is different than the approach taken by Governor Cuomo and mayor de blasio . Robert it is all politics. The politics in that part of the midwest are the antiscience people. They dont believe in math. They dont believe in social distancing. In masks. They dont believe in social distancing. Freedom, to them, means that they dont have to do anything they dont want to do. Lisa based on the trajectory of the virus, how many more deaths can we expect in the United States, from here until the end of the pandemic, whenever it may be . Robert that is a really good question, and that number has been fluctuating by the real experts in our country. It was estimated about a month ago that there would be 300,000 deaths by december 31 of this year. That has already been increased to 400,000, and even higher after that. It is speeding up. We have over half of the states in the United States increasing rapidly, and 12 out of the 50 states and several territories had the highest sevenday average in their history of the whole pandemic. So we dont know. It depends on how many people get released, how many take them, and how long it takes to get the vaccines rolled out into the population. It doesnt happen overnight. Lisa the other aspect has been the average age of individuals who have died from covid19. It is younger than in other regions around the world. Why is that . Robert the United States has an epidemic of obesity, of diabetes and hypertension. We have generally poor nutrition compared to many of the countries many other countries, and physical activity is pretty low. We have basically an unhealthy or population then other countries. All of those factors come into the in terms of how severe coronavirus affects somebody. Tom i want to get a little mathy with you now. Theres a great Youtube Video by differential equation experts in london on the virus. The only thing that matters to the public is the x axis. Basically, you play the x axis out and out until you get to some critical mass. Of whatave an estimate we will sacrifice if we accept heard immunity . Robert herd immunity is something we typically measure when we are giving vaccines. To use herd immunity as a goal without a vaccine is almost criminally insane. Tom thank you. This is really important, folks. I dont mean to interrupt. I want you to backup and explain why that is, please. That is critical. Robert if you take that approach, we are just going to let everybody get out there and. Et infected of thet hide 1 3 population. You cant isolate them. It is ridiculous. If you do that, you are going to probably kill up to 3 Million People in the United States. We have 330 Million People. Million people only 2. 8 Million People die per d. Ar of all combine we are going to double the death rate and one year just to prove this crazy theory works . It is absolutely insane. And they keep using the swedish model. They dont have to wear masks there. Lets face it, the United States is not sweden. We are a very different, diverse country. The swedes took it a different way. They have much higher rates than every other country around the, and one of the highest rates in europe. It is not exactly the super success story. Their economy crashed a. 3 anyway. Concept crashed 8. 3 anyway. This whole concept is really insane and cruel. Jonathan finally, what is it about the homage entity of a place like sweden that it can take this route . You mentioned that they are all the same over there. Homogeneous the society homogenous homogenous society . Tom they are more physically robert they are more physically active. They have smaller family units. They dont have clusters of dense cities. The whole country has fewer people than in new york city. Situationry different with them, and they also have a lot of voluntary measures. Its not like they didnt do any mitigation efforts at all. It was all voluntary, and plenty of people volunteered. Certainly things were not going on as normal. Jonathan appreciate the clarity, doctor. Come back on the program. Immunity. Nge of herd tom im sorry i am bringing this up. Ive already gotten male disagreeing and supporting herd immunity. I am just trying to listen to the experts. Thats how we invented surveillance. Jonathan i hear you. Shiftot the tom keene friday. I will sound like and by friday. Tom this is the curse of mookie betts. Lisa a great Youtube Video on exponential differentials. [announcer] imagine having fuller, thicker, more voluminous hair instantly. All it takes is just one session at hairclub. Introducing xtrands. Xtrands adds hundreds or even thousands of hair strands to your existing hair at the root. Theyre personalized to match your own natural hair color and texture, so theyll blend right in for a natural, effortless look. Call in the next five minutes and when you buy 500 strands, you get 500 strands free. Call right now. upbeat music the vshaped recovery path looks very much secure. A multiyear bear market in cyclicality is probably over. Markets just go back to what really drives them. Central banks and governments are in this together. We need support for the economy, both from monetary and fiscal policy, and Monetary Policy has already done a huge amount. This is bloomberg surveillance with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. Good morning, everyone. Bloomberg surveillance