Retail sales and Industrial Production gained momentum in september. The economy is set for a faster rebound than any of its peers. Global news 24 hours a day, onair, and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. Im Mark Crumpton. This is bloomberg. Vonnie it is 1 00 p. M. In new york, 6 00 p. M. In london, and 1 00 a. M. In hong kong. Im vonnie quinn. Welcome to bloomberg markets. Here are the top stories we are following on the bloomberg and from around the world. U. S. Stimulus negotiations approach another tipping point. Secretary mnuchin and Speaker Pelosi will resume their conversations in about two hours, as the House Speakers preelection deadline zooms. How much trouble are airlines and without federal aid . We will speak to sara nelson, the International President of the association of flight attendants. And a big bet on shale. Conocophillips mobileye Concho Resources, the largest shale industry deal since the collapse of Energy Demand earlier this year. Lets take a quick check on the markets. Todayfor largecap stocks although we had seen a deceleration. S p 500 down half a percent. The nasdaq down. 3 . Some better Economic Data out this morning, as Homebuilder Confidence is higher. The best performer in the dow nike. Now is dow, we have a weaker dollar. Crude close to 41 a barrel. Lets get more on additional stimulus for the economy. Speaker pelosi setting a deadline tomorrow to region house. Nt with the white for more, we are joined by our congressional reporter billy house. We just had secretary mnuchin and Speaker Pelosi speaking again in two hours time. Are they going to wrap up all of the language and get through the local government problem . Lift, theys a heavy claim to be far apart on those items but they are talking at 3 00. Hopefully, they will hit home some final language on topics. Pelosi has set an informal deadline as of the end of business tomorrow for progress. How that is divine, whether that can happen, that is up in the air. Vonnie what kind of messaging will it send if we have a Senate Voting on a skinnier deal tomorrow, 500 billion, to certainy targeted areas . Certainly a two track way of things that are happening. At the same time, well Senate Republicans led by macron ill plan to vote on their own bills this week, the Senate Majority leader said saturday that the senate would consider an agreement by the white house and pelosi. The rub is what does consider mean does that mean putting it on the floor and voted for it . He will not say. Vonnie he has to decide which is better in his interest, whether he is confident republicans will do well in the election, in which case he can be more of a deficit hawk, or whether there is help needed. Is that what he is trying to reconcile . Billy i think so, and its becoming more difficult to reconcile as larger numbers of republican senators up for reelection find themselves in tight races. Is stimulus something they need . That is a decision they have to make. Also, trump wants it. As far as he goes, so do some of these races. The majority leader may have to think about that. Opens uplthough that all sorts of possibilities. If he helps the president but hurts some of his senators, that is not the best outcome for him either. Would he rather hold onto the senate and give up the white house, vice versa . Billy that is the rubiks cube. Does helping senators who are not deficit hawks and dont want largest spending, are they helped by not doing a package . Or other senators who desperately need some stimulus in their state to help boost them, is that the way to go . He is making all of the calculations and who knows how they are going behind closed doors. Meantime, nancy pelosi also has to decide whether she will give in on a few things. Is it in her interest to give up on anything, whether it be language about Contact Tracing for minorities, is there anything that she can gain by doing that . Pressure, has her own progressives in her own party. Moderates say lets make up a deal. Progressive say lets wait until after the lame to do something, tie it to the upcoming funding bill that needs to be renewed in december. She has her own pressures, some of which are do it now. Others say lets not give up any more ground to the republicans. Vonnie billy house is our congressional reporter. Coming up, airline aid does not seem to be the center of focus in the stimulus talks, but it is for those that work in the industry. We will discuss the what that means with sara nelson. This is bloomberg. Vonnie this is bloomberg markets. Virus ravaged the Airline Industry, passing a milestone last week, carry more than one million passengers. Still that is more than 60 lower than last years levels. When you think about where we are today in the virus, we are actually in a position that was far worse than we originally anticipated we would be when we had the initial sixmonth stimulus grant. We have had bipartisan support. Question a whatever side of the isle you are on, or even in the administration, about the importance, the essential work that our Airline Industry workers provide. Vonnie our next guest represents some 50,000 of those. Lets welcome the International President of the association of flight attendants, sara nelson. How effective have your members been . About 100 thousand flight attendants in the United States . Sara yes, and nearly half of our members are on furloughed or no pay status. That means many of them are going without a paycheck or health care. We are right in the middle of this crisis. Of continuing the jobs and the Infrastructure Program we put in place in march, and should be continued for another six months. Vonnie what does the association see should be done . Flights are not flying, they are barely holding on right now. 20 airline going into the pandemic. It is now 17. Sara this is a problem for every sector. One of the reasons we dont have the same demand in fact, demand is back to 40 this weekend. Revenue is back to only 20 because we dont have the business travel. We dont have places for people to go, travel to. As people are losing their jobs when there is not another job to be found. Was the program did, it only Relief Program focused on the workers first. What it said was the airlines had to funnel the money directly to paychecks and benefits. It covered 70 of the payroll to keep all the workers in their job instead of in the unemployment line. These are credentialed workers. So when we have the virus under control, we have to have the Airline Industry start up again. The other requirement of this release is that the airlines would continue routes that are otherwise not economical for them to continue, and that keeps service to the small and Rural Communities that keeps our country connected, gives people the Critical Services they need, even if they are not a traveler. People have no idea how much air travel keeps commerce going. All of that is in jeopardy now. , allt also want to note the things that people normally hate about what they would call bailouts, as opposed to this Relief Program, we have also banned stock buybacks and dividends. It is a unique program. That is why everyone recognizes the importance. It is the best use of the publics money, and should be continued. Among the airlines, are willing to work with you on this . Is there any trepidation about what this might mean for the survival of each airline . Sara this was a union sponsored plan. As we got all the airlines to come along with us, the Airline Industry is entirely united on this. That is why we have nearly unanimous support across capitol hill. We just need a vehicle to get this across the finish line. If we can get this release release package in place, we can have this in place before the election, we can start to recall people from furlough, make sure the people are restored, make sure airlines are not canceling more roots, cutting back more service, keeping our country connected, and we take the pressure off of the on employment lines, have people continue to pay their rents, keep their bills connected, pay their taxes, vonnie and spend into the economy. Industry isy struggling most industries are struggling. What happens if you just get a blanket no and there is no deal tomorrow with a specific airlines provision . Sara we are going to see more furloughs, job cuts. Will see service cuts, we see small airports close down. For every airline job, we support 3. 55 other jobs in the country. You will see a tsunami of job loss. We are not done with the announcements and furloughs in the industry. Theyrlines try to survive, have to right size the airline in this environment. There is no right size for a crisis of this size. There is no way to rationalize the marketplace in the middle of this crisis. So we are going to see an extended recession and possibly depression, and we will not be able to climb out of it quickly, or meet the demand on the others, because we will have to retrain people, which can take months or years to do the work that is necessary on the other side. Vonnie you mentioned we are at 20 of the revenue for airlines, even if some demand is back and people are beginning to travel. Behind closed doors, what are you working with when it comes to what you anticipate the industry will look like in a few months time . How much smaller will this industry be in terms of flight attendants . Toa it is very important recognize, for example, during the great recession, the Airline Industry fluctuated about 15 . Airlines have the ability to ramp up and down in that range. But when you are talking about an 80 difference, there is no way to whether that. In the middle of the crisis, it is hard to say. If we get this relief and we have another six months, closer to a vaccine, testing regimen, closer to a National Plan where we can take on the coronavirus in a scientific way, we believe the rest of the sectors will begin to open up, there will be reasons for people to travel, and we can get much closer to that 15 fluctuation, in addition to all the attrition happening because no one has been hiring. If we can get this additional six months, Many Airlines predict by that time, they will not need to have any furloughs at all. But this is a critical time. It could all fall apart right now if we dont continue the relief. Vonnie there is a need for some flight attendant. What are the concerns when it comes to traveling on airlines right now . We are still in the middle of a pandemic. Almost all states have an r rate above one, and people are still working in the airlines. Sara initially in march, we didnt have all of the procedures in place. Safety and Aviation Security is a layered approach. The policies coupled with the hepa filtration, additional cleaning, the use of hand sanitizer, single touch surface on our aircraft, all of these things allow us to have a controlled environment in the aviation industry. We have seen the rights of crewmembers, coronavirus testing go down. It is impossible to determine exactly where someone may have contracted the virus, but as we are seeing rates go down, it means we have a much better control of the Work Environment and Community Spread is more like the where people are contracting it on Mass Transportation or Something Like that. Vonnie thank you so much, sara nelson. Next, we will hear more from deltas ceo. The risks of telehealth. Virtual doctor visits may have become the new normal in the pandemic, but are there consequences when it comes to diagnosing via screen . This is bloomberg. President trump he will surrender your future to the virus. He will listen to the scientists. If i listened to the scientists, we would have a country that would be in a massive depression instead of we are like a rocketship. The experts have said and have been saying for the last month and a half that another 200,000 lives are likely to be lost in the coming months. Year, if wef the continue to refuse and follow science. He refuses embracing wearing a mask. How many times on television have you seen him make fun of biden wearing a mask. I love republicans but we have to learn to stick together. We have some stupid people. It is time to restore americas soul. Time to rebuild the backbone of america, the middle class, and bring everyone along, no matter your race, religion, gender, ethnicity. We can do this. Coronavirus cases topping 40 million. The u. S. Averaging 50,000 cases a day. The pandemic is not just catching affecting those who catch the virus, but it is also causing others to avoid doctor visits. That is why telemedicine is playing a new and vital role in health care. Joining us now is dr. Caleb alexander. You have been studying this and you have a new paper out. Give us the summary of its contents. Dr. Alexander thank you for having me. We were interested to see if there were changes and where americans were getting care. We looked at a nationally representative sample of outpatient practice. We found a sea change in the way that care has been delivered since the pandemic started. Very large shift to telemedicine, very large reductions in face to face care. One of the things we found was also very large reductions to the assessment of patient Blood Pressure, cholesterol levels. These are basic cardiovascular risk factors. The fact that we saw these reductions raises concerns as to whether telemedicine can really fulfill as promised in substituting face to face care. Vonnie when will we know concrete data about whether telemedicine works or not, works in relation to inhouse visits . Dr. Alexander that is an outstanding question, and there are many scientists who are examining this question. I think its important to emphasize there is not a onesizefitsall approach year. Clearly, there are some instances where you can barely very safely see your doctor by telephone, using a webbased platform, but there may be other settings where there is simply no good substitute for seeing the doctor face to face, such as you have a new source of pain, shortness of breath, dizziness. We are limited in our abilities. I am a practicing care physician. We are limited in our ability to evaluate these things using telemedicine. Vonnie with all of this medicine, is it possible to improve medicine . You mention taking Blood Pressure and so on. Surely, that could be added in easily. Dr. Alexander no question we are better than 20 years ago in terms of the ability to use, for example, digital platforms, digital technologies. The apple watch has the ability to monitor some parameters that may be of interest to clinicians. I think there is a lot of promise here, and for the right patient at the right time, telemedicine may be a perfectly reasonable substitute. As we move forward, its important to recognize there may also be many settings where patients also need to see doctors and other providers face to face. There is not an Office Practice in the country that has not modified their workload to minimize the risks of covid transmission, to make it safe for those people that need to come in and be seen, for them to do so. Vonnie who are most at risk among those who cannot come because they are afraid of the virus or cannot take public transportation, or cannot physically get themselves to the Doctors Office . Certainly, there has historically been a lot of concern about what we call the digital divide. Some groups of patients may be very comfortable with digital technology, webbased platforms, but it is really important that as we see further adoption, we dont leave specific and vulnerable populations behind, and that we dont widen already stark disparities in access and quality of care among different groups in the United States. I think this is one of the many areas of telemedicine where there is a lot of focus right now, a lot of effort, to be sure that the increased expansion of telemedicine does not contribute to disparities in care. Vonnie we look forward to more research from your team on this. Dr. Alexander is the professor of epidemiology at the Johns Hopkins Business School of public health. Up, we are looking at the makings of a shale giant. This is bloomberg. Mark im Mark Crumpton with bloomberg first word news. Treasury secretary Steven Mnuchin and House Speaker nancy pelosi are set to speak today at 3 00 new york time to discuss the next step to reaching a fiscal stimulus deal. Speaker pelosi has warned unless there are signs of progress from the white house by tomorrow there will not be a in agreement before election day. The white house as if Speaker Pelosi is reasonable, she will find president is reasonable, too. The Supreme Court has agreed to hear the border wall with mexico case. To lose wearing them blocking the president from using pentagon funds to build more than 100 miles of fencing. Originallyllion was appropriated for other purposes. Global central bankers under no illusion that they are through the fallout from the coronavirus. Monetary chiefs from the euro area, japan, and the u. K. Issued warnings about new government restrictions, struggling recoveries, and threats to jobs. They were united in their concern about the threats to their economies. Wales has become the second nation in the United Kingdom to lockdown large parts of its economy to fight the coronavirus, even as Prime Minister johnson resists calls to do the same around england. We have now reached the difficult decision to introduce a twoweek firebrick starting at 6 00 p. M. Friday, this week. The fire break period will then include the heart of holiday, and cover the weeks ending on monday, the ninth of november. He said this is the moment to play our part in a common endeavor to do everything we can to protect the National Health service and to save lives. Authorities across the u. K. Are imposing new restrictions on business and social interactions as covid19 infections rise to route all age groups and parts of the country. Fear of job losses haunts more than half of the worlds workers, according to a World Economic forum survey of more than 12,000 people. Are either very concerned or somewhat concerned that they will lose their jobs in the next year. Germany has the lowest rate of job insecurity. Russia has the highest. Global news 24 hours a day, onair, and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. Im Mark Crumpton. This is bloomberg. Amanda live from ontario, im amanda lang. Vonnie im vonnie quinn in new york. We are joined by our bloomberg and Bnn Bloomberg audiences. Here are the top stories we are following from around the world. A new shale giant. Conocophillips agrees to buy Concho Resources for 9. 4 billion in stock. It would create a heavyweight driller in the permian. Antitrust clouds loom over silicon valley, as opposition watchdogs ramp up oversight at big tech. We will discuss the challenges for the industry and look at the potential impact of a blue sweep with david balto. Infrastructure under biden versus trump. Both campaigns prioritize the issue and make promises. Now we will look at how the candidates plan to do something about it and finance it. We have markets with a slightly negative sentiment. Probably not helped by the understanding that tomorrow may be a deadline for the impasse to end on a stimulus deal, if it is to be reached before the election. The s p 500 in negative territory. We are picking up a little bit of speed to the downside but not massive momentum. The Largest Group moving to the downside is the Energy Subgroup of the s p 500. That is weighing on the markets in toronto as well. The tier wheels are doing well on both sides of the border today, so perhaps a flight to safety in those names, a bet on global growth. Here at home, it is the megadeal capturing the attention of some. Conocophillips with a 9. 7. Illion offer for concho it is the largest deal in the shale industry since the collapse of Energy Demand. Alix steel joins us now. A major transaction, maybe the first of many, but certainly a blockbuster. Have 5e goal is to billion in synergies by 2025. The real big blockbuster of it is what it does for conoco in the permian. They did have space there but they were better known for their alaska. To aboutbrings them 60 of their portfolio. I spoke to the ceo about what it will do with the cash flow and how they will distribute it. This is really putting two super Quality Companies together to create Something Special in the e p space. We have said this repeatedly to the market. The acquisition needs to be below our threshold. The Ongoing Development can be for capital development. That is the kind of resource we are adding with conchos position in the permian basin. It is a great complement to our existing position. We will be a unique company in this space with a huge position in the eagle furred, the balkan, and now a super large position in the permian basin. We will become one of the largest unconventional producers in the business today. Alix he said he would only reinvest about 70 of the cash flows, still keeping some production discipline. The interesting question is how do they think about developing these assets . Usually, they are differentiated because they did not have permian assets, was international, diversified in alaska and eagleford. Now will they use that cash flow as a way to fund your longerterm projects over the next 10 years in alaska and international . That clarity is still missing for analysts. The overall take away was it was positive for the company, opens up a large spot for them. There are not that Many Companies like concho that one may want to buy. Vonnie it puts significant pressure on the smaller names. You say there may not be much interest but they wont have much choice. Diamondback could go it alone depending on how they scale it. Of everyone will need a size a conoco or exxon within the permian basin. It is the smaller players that will get squeezed most. They are the ones that wont be able to fund their assets, so you may see more action. It is also about shareholder reaction. Deals have been basically no premium or low premium. Zero or below or a tiny bit premium. Tos had a 50 premium october. That is quite manageable. Analyst were looking for a 20, 20 5 premium. How many more companies you can buy at that low of a premium, i dont know how many there are. Vonnie great interview there. Thank you, alix steel. Time for our stock of the hour. Halliburton had another weak quarter but is optimistic about a may be in place. Kailey leinz is looking at that. Halliburton posting earnings above analyst expectations, granted, at . 11 a share, down 70 on a year on basis. That earnings beat came in the face of a miss on the top line. Revenue at just 3 billion, shy of expectations. The fact that they were able to post a profit comes down to 1 billion in cost savings. What they said Going Forward is what is important. It has been a really bad year to be a fracker. Because the price of oil has collapsed, a lot of e ps have had to roll back production. Has seen their stock declined by more than half this year and has had to lay off half of its workforce in north america. But the ceo today said that it looks like they have bottomed, and in north america, things are stabilizing. A different picture in the international market. Demand is still weak. He says a bottom is near. Markets made up about two thirds of halliburtons revenue in the second quarter. Historically, north america has made up half or more of its sales, but that is now down to about 33 . Would do well to remember uncertainty around the election, but there were a lot of factors working against shale long before now, including that saudi price were in the spring. Kailey that was one of the catalyst for Oil Prices Going negative in the spring. As you alluded to, the pandemic is really the story of 2020. And has weighed on prices Oil Companies more broadly. You speak about the election, and that is what is represented here in the blue line. Bets. Racks clean energy it has been performing on the year but those bets have ramped up in the recent weeks as the market prices in the odds of a biden presidency. Bet a biden presidency, the is that it will come with more Green Infrastructure spending at the expense of some of these traditional players. Vonnie thank you, kailey leinz. Coming up, big techs antitrust saga. We will look at the case be prepared against google with david balto. This is bloomberg. Vonnie this is bloomberg markets. Im vonnie quinn in new york. Google is tapping to prominent law firms with antitrust experience as they prepare to fight a monopoly in use lawsuit which is shaking up to be the biggest antitrust case since microsoft in 1998. Lets bring in david balto. Actions here. Rust be the you imagine will first and second steps here on the part of the authorities . David the Justice Department may likely file a lawsuit, and then we begin sparring in antitrust court. Antitrust cases are notoriously slow, extraordinarily complex. Muchently, industries move more quickly than antitrust cases. We will see sparring in federal court for a while. A trial will certainly be more than a year off. One of the complexities when it comes to big tech and i guess we could say that in opposition to standard oil the harm to the consumer test. Here, most would say that there is an awful lot of good done and the harm is hard to see. What would the case be to say there is harm being done . The courts have, for over a halfcentury, have said the load antitrust enforcement is to the consumers. The fact that competitors complained about a company is not evidence that the competitive process is being harmed. They would have to demonstrate, the Justice Department, would have to demonstrate how consumers are either paying more or suffering from less choice or innovation. The lendsry to turn its head and change antitrust law, but that is the job of congress, not a government agency. House earlier we had the to do Chari Committee submitting its findings. It is all quite interesting the timing of it. Do you imagine we get something announced before november 3 . What happens if there is a few months, and that a new president . David this case seems largely politically driven. It is not in the traditional antitrust division, has been taken over by bill barr. He has appointed his own special staff to handle it. There is a political drive, and that is why it was announced right before the debate. Iftitrust agencies there is a change in administration, there will be a fresh look at the case. When the george w. Bush administration came into power, it looked at the microsoft case. Rather than seeking structural relief, it agreed to various forms of behavioral remedies to solve the competitive problem agreed to found by the court. You, a i do have to ask perennial problem in america, and that is without campaignfinance reform, these companies wield a lot of power across washington. How big of a factor is that that we have to acknowledge it . Isid the wonderful thing that the court system is immune from that sort of influence. A federal court judge will say let me look at the facts and determine whether there has been an antitrust violation. Analysis ishat going to be that a judge has to find that consumers have suffered from higher prices or less choice, and that evidence seems absent in the situation. But thereu say that, has been a big change in how red or blue certain districts are, the number of judges appointed, so you have to wonder how much that will play into the next couple of years in the courts. Of right now, how do you imagine the agency will is aaffed up, if there transition to a biden presidency . David i think a Biden Administration will go back to the approach taken in the Obama Administration of some moderate antitrust enforcement. There are a lot of political concerns that have been raised recently. But its interesting, if you look at the house to dish yearly report. Look at it from a consumer perspective. Where is the evidence that consumers have been harmed from the integration that goes on with these companies . That is hard to find. There are lots of complaints by competitors, but again, those may just be evidence that the market is highly competitive, not that consumers are suffering. Course, the problem with the counterfactual, we simply dont know, when we think about amazon and its ability to complete compete on the platform against its own businesses, you could see over to the consumer. In the meantime, prices are lower to consumers. Look atthe best way to that bencic properly . David that is an interesting question. We can look at other industries where those kinds of integrations have already occurred. At your supermarket, you will see lots of private label products that that supermarket promotes. Do we see harm to competition from that . No. What we see is more aggressive price competition. The question is why would we expect something other than that to occur, because transactions are occurring on the internet rather than the supermarket . Youra great to have expertise, david. I have a feeling we would be talking over time. David balto, former ftc policy director. Coming up, fixing americas infrastructure. It has been a future of Campaign Promises across the board. We will take a look at what that may yield. This is bloomberg. Amanda this is bloomberg markets. Im amanda lang in ontario. Vonnie intel is up 1 on news from dow jones that it is looking at buying a south korean company. The deal could be valued at 10 billion, could be finalized as soon as monday. A report that intel is nearing a deal to sell its memory unit two hynix. Turning to infrastructure now. Promises about fixing ailing infrastructure across america have featured in both campaigns of President Trump and joe biden. What would it mean on the other side of the break to read by either . Where might the focus be . We welcome sewing about dara for this. I want to start with where you think the most realistic sounding promises have occurred. There is a lot of need out there. Where do you think real dollars thank yount sonia for having me. In terms of infrastructure plans from both candidates, from trumps side, it is a long pledge. We have been waiting for these Infrastructure Projects for the past four years, and nothing has happened. I think the relevant point is from joe biden. In terms of what he brings to the table, it is really his vision, how infrastructure can change in the future, how he intends to fix it, how he intends to finance it in the next few years. Taxie would he have to get done first, would he have to raise more than think tanks say he would in order to carry out this infrastructure plan . Think tax is a big part of the financing. There are other ways to finance these projects. They are putting more private money into the table, bringing up more private and public partnerships, using other instruments that other regions are using. I think it could be another way to finance the project. Eventually, what is more important to highlight is the transition to a net zero economy that joe biden defends. Segments that he defends will bring a lower conception of co2 in the future. In the midst of a crisis, infrastructure is appealing, some types of it, because it is very laborintensive. But the longer term benefits of some infrastructure may have fewer jobs attached may be set aside. Do we worry about things getting politicized when money is being spent to kickstart the economy . You looker all, when at these projects for example, lets take the real way. That the u. S. Eves should have Proper Railway in the future, not only for freight but passengers. This will bring a lot of jobs. This could definitely help the economy in the future. Something that they will defend. ,t is important to highlight they will need to attach other manufacturers. Vonnie thank you. We will continue to keep up with your research on bloomberg intelligence. From new york and toronto, this is bloomberg. So youre a small business, or a big one. You were thriving, but then. Oh. Ah. Okay. Plan, pivot. How do you bounce back . You dont, you bounce forward, with serious and reliable internet. Powered by the largest gig Speed Network in america. But is it secure . Sure its secure. And even if the power goes down, your connection doesnt. So how do i do this . You dont do this. We do this, together. Bounce forward, with comcast business. Bloombergs first word news. President trump says people are tired of listening to him on and chief diseases anthony pyeongchang. He told Campaign Staff theres a bomb when ever to goes on tv. Mr. Trump added if he fires dr. Fauci it would be a bigger bomb. The president said if he had listen to dr. Fauci eat there would be 800,000 deaths from coronavirus right now. Saudi arabia vowed opec and its partners will do what is necessary to balance the oil markets. The countrys oil minister says the group will quote negative trends in the bud. As uncertainty in the Energy Market persists. After his comments of Bloomberg New site draft statement from the Online Meeting of ministers. The draft warned the oil market is in a quote precarious position with prevailing uncertainties and risks to the downside. Official istinian in Critical Condition with coronavirus. The is
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