Investors are awaiting the latest gdp data from china. Growthrg economics sees above 5 . And then just send a rv and dens historic victory. She is considering a new coalition. We have s p and nasdaq futures. You can see the and the view shirts are actually about a third, and they were pretty flat on friday. The s p 500 at 3483. The nasdaq took a bit of a beating. Was not the usual biggest day ever. Keepler sentiment helped stocks from really falling. Lets move to the oil markets. What we have here is an advance on the on the week shrinking u. S. Crude stockpiles. At what isok ,appening in the week ahead what are they going to do about their plans to cut production, boost prices. This is the big question as the week begins. Haidi lets look at gdp. The kiwi stocks are at 7 10 of 1 . Warre looking at a tug of situation. The aussie dollar rebounding ardens historic victory. She has a mandate to govern alone, but apparently this will continue. There may be an upside of half a percent. Incremental easing of these lockdown procedures. Were looking at a little bit of modest upside. Lets look at our first word headlines with dream of chill in new york. Citizens of melbourne are now allowed to travel further and longer. The stayathome order will be completely lifted from november 1, but the hospitality sector is allowed to reopen. Infectionsnavirus are approaching 40 million. Considering the tightest social restrictions since the lockdown ended. And german chancellor Angela Merkel is urging people to sit home. Germany added 100,000 cases in a week. There are fresh warnings about government restrictions. Said thatthe euro support will remain vital for some time. Of recession. Risk President Trump has indicated he will go further than the 1. 8 trillion package, despite Senate Majority leader Mitch Mcconnell rebuff mcconnells rebuff. He says he is confident he can convince critics. The door is still ajar. , but they minister take two sides. Global news 24 hours a day, powered by more than 2700 journals and analysts. Im karina mitchell. This is bloomberg. Haidi. Haidi thank you. A stimulushe odds of deal. What this could mean for the market. Next after thes historic weekend elections. The he wants to see after next three years. This is bloomberg. Recession,ut of this what we need is more fiscal stimulus. Stimulus has been aweinspiring in terms of the speed and these size. I hope we will get this done sooner rather than later. The industry is a source of strength. The amount of capital that exists in the system has allowed us to continue to support customers of all sizes. We are pretty optimistic in the near term. We have pretty constructive views on the Global Economy and into 2021. Wall street leaders there with a clear and unanimous message. We need more stimulus. Prompted has not democrats and republicans to reach a deal. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi is set at tuesday deadline to Reach Agreement on a bill to pass before election day. President trump says he is willing to uproar than the 1. 8 trillion, but Senate Majority leader Mitch Mcconnell so far is only keeping to a smaller bill for this week. Guest. Ring in our the global macro strategist for medley global advisors. What is striking to me is it does not matter which money manager you ask, the election is whether or not there stimulus, this is one of the main things they are watching to figure out where investments are going to go. Think you put it on the nail there. This is two weeks or so. Its seems to me the market is it is not as contested as people feared. This will then shape he pulls minds about the future stimulus. That will be the calculus. A the moment, the election is major volatility event. The market seems to be optimistic. Whether thats tax cuts under a Trump Presidency or more spending under a biden presidency, either way it is more stimulus for the economy. If you are in favor or wary of press, theythe data that demonstrates right now, trump is the same amount behind joe biden that he was behind Hillary Clinton four years ago. Have the markets overpriced the idea that, no, biden will win in a landslide if they are wrong, what is the outcome . I think it is a very important point. As President Trump is talking about, there could always be a red wave. That the bluee explict reflected in the reds could flip around to a sweep. The market has not factored that in. It is more of a positive narrative out there. Keep in mind that this election is not called yet. It may have a determining outcome on november 3, but it is not called. Keep in mind a red scenario as well. Wave struck at the heart of these uncertainties. That some of the benefits of these renewables would see a reversal if there is a surprise. There is a flow. It is driven by expectations about the future spending of the democratic presidency focus on Green Infrastructure and that has driven flows there. The other side is to reopen the economy that is still very fragile. There is value. Despitell be recovery, the setbacks from the coronavirus. This opportunity may loom again if the virus starts to moderate again, people will start to look at reopening traits. You could see that change. It looks like this point for the reopening. Haidi at the same time the narratives are still intact. Where wetty remarkable have come given how devastating the pandemic was for the economy. Does that continue to be the story that drives asian investments . Is a major story. En earlyple here has be on, the way that china approached the pandemic, had an effect on the aftermath of the economy. Ity controlled the virus and allowed them to regain strength faster and to deliver on a phase one agreement. The china story is important for the region. Vietnam and the philippines are benefiting from this and all the trade thats happening. The global trade story has seen a significant revival. That is an important part about the china recovery that global trade has positively affected. Haidi we appreciate you. Ben emmons. New law aimed at restricting sensitive exports. Beijing anes account to measure. Of leverage innd response to some of the u. S. Measures taken by washington. Big implications of future deals. Tom it gives them leverage as you say. It allows them to hit back with their own reciprocal measures if some restrictions are put in place by other nations. China for specter in National Security but it has future deals down the line. Back in august where china asserted its right to have a say in what was happening with the discussions over tiktok and its Parent Company by inserting a rule and policy around the export of algorithms. Off over theed standingy the China Committee of the National Peoples congress. Chinas law which includes foreign invested companies will begin in december. It affects Companies Like huawei and tencent. It comes down to how these laws are implemented and how forcefully. Implications for how china responds going forward. Theyre expecting to show a strong rebound. Of china tookbank a meeting to show how we have defeated the virus, our economy is on track and we will lead the global recovery. It seems there is a big focus on the economy part but also a. Olitical economy focus as well you getolutely and if the virus under control, you can have this vshaped recovery that many were talking about back in march, and now almost impossible for european nations and the united states. It is a divergent recovery. We can talk about the fact that retail sales and its Industrial ProductionInfrastructure Spending on real estate has really driven the recovery. Also exports. China has carved out a greater market share. Remarkable considering the changes in the economy leading up to 2020. There has been a demand for work from home products, from its Major Trading partners in europe and medical equipment in the export sector. We are expected the headline to commit 5. 5 percent, effectively making up for all the losses in growth in the first half of the year. Number fromexpected the previous month. Lacking. Les are still Asset Investment is another data point we are looking at. We will get the numbers out about 10 00 a. M. The first part of the recovery for china was based on Infrastructure Spending, property sales, property investment. Manufacturing should start to shift. We will see if that plays out in the data and the overall number. Tom, thank you this market gdp report watched around the world. Still to come, the worlds strictest lockdowns have used in number as covid19 cases begin to fall. This is bloomberg. Sterling victoria set to ease lockdown conditions as the number of coronavirus cases continues to decline. A number of business groups one victorias economy to open more quickly. We are now at over 100 days of lockdown. How costly is it becoming . Prime minister wade in. 1000 jobs per day were lost on average. Tw just two new cases. There were hopes that things could get going but the stayathome order is still in place. People can go 25 kilometers from home, they can play tennis, golf, can go to the hairdresser, but the two hour time limit has also been lifted. Ier has determined to hold the line but the Business Council of australia is calling these delays on easing things properly inexcusable. Kathleen the situation in australia still looking better than in europe where things are going through the roof and in the u. S. , the midwest in particular, is seeing resurgence. Paul we are wringing our hands here. On u. S. Had 57,000 plus saturday. Even accounting for population differences, that is terrible. Casesk. Had 11,000 new sunday, 11000 and italy, and france. Curfew fromy have a 9 00 p. M. To 6 00 a. M. And heading into winter as well. A different and concerning picture. That is paul allen joining us from sydney. Monetary policy moves during the pandemic have motivated investors to find new opportunities and strategies for mitigating risks. We spoke to the global head of gsl, dwight scott. I worry about the fact that rates are so low today that the wind that has been at our back of falling rates, we dont have that in the credit markets now. Investments rick investment rate is inside 2 . Youre making longterm Investment Decisions and today you really dont know how long rates will stay this low. I worry that you see rates start to tick back up. Thosese rates tick up, fixed income exposures you will have to be careful about. Youre not getting a lot of yield to offset a decrease in pricing caused by an increasing rate. Wayow does that change the that you underwrite your expectations . To thists us back difference between the private and the public. On Public Strategies we are moving higher in the value chain, we went Better Companies and better management with strong sponsors because we believe those businesses will outperform and grow into their Capital Structures and less leverage. Thats how we are managing it. Ablee private side we are to jump in and take advantage of dislocation. If a company is coming to the market, if a private equity firm wants to buy a public company, they cannot really finance that in the bank markets because they need full and committed capital, so we can step in and provide significant capital. We did that for a large chemical acquisition in europe this year where we provided half of the financing they needed before they made their bidding and they placed the rest of it later. This kind ofons in market are where we will be more aggressive. I went to you what kind of risks are not worth taking but you just wanted the opportunity. It is worth asking what opportunities are you seeing to put money to work . Investablee most opportunities . We are being cautious. To our been talking investors about this concept of consciously active. We described that as we are worried about where this pandemic leads. Intont have great insight when we will be back in theaters and back on airlines. We have been active because the Higher Quality traded off with the lower quality names and we were able to invest in those in the private markets shut down and began to reopen and we were able to invest in that. Across blackstone in the credit business, in our Life Sciences business, we provided 2 billion in the middle of the crisis, in the form of royalty and loan and equity. It was critical to that company to push through this cycle into grow. Always see these opportunities and try to make sure that we see the value of our platform and broad nature of our products. Those will give us the opportunity to do something really important and to continue to make investments in the public side of our business. Haidi dwight scott there. Kiwi stocks on the rise after the Prime Ministers historic victory over the weekend. We will be hearing from the chamber of commerce. This is bloomberg. Haidi the new zealand Prime Minister has swept to a historic victory and says that she will use her mandate to rebuild the economy. We will build back better from the covid crisis. An answerronger, with to the many challenges that new zealand already faces. This is our opportunity. Lets get some insight on what those priorities should be. With such a strong mandate, what sort of priority needs to happen for the rebuilding from unprecedented economic shock . Thing that is important to business at the moment are the things that they wont do. I think that the Prime Minister has gone out of her way to say that there wont be any wealth taxes and there will not be Capital Gains taxes and so on. Those were some of the areas very business was concerned. Some of the hangovers from the pandemic, the Business Loans that they extended for small to Medium Businesses, they have indicated that they will extend those and give concessions on the interest rates. This is what they are looking for, what will stimulate the economy. That will be around the infrastructure. There is plenty to do. At some point there will need to be a test on the border. Also be a testll on the private sector. What can that part of the economy do to prove resilience . We know that new zealand has a long track record of being able to prove those things and is punchy in this way about its economical and being able to prove itself on innovation. Look at theve a sectors that have done well over this time, the last six months in particular, we could limit our exports and we know that our exports are up. Down the ground and out of our waters. Them to be looking to demonstrate that resilience. Its going to be access to schools and that is probably going to demand that there is some easing at the border. The damage that has happened in the small to Medium Business sector, it is probably going to demand that the government focus on the small to Medium Business sector. Looking at what they can do to stimulate it. Kathleen where do you anticipate any kind of opposition to this new government, resounding victory, and the Business Community. You have said they are putting too much focus on piling up debt and resuming business infrastructure. This is something i would think everyone would agree on. If you look at some of the policies that are there, you probably need to look at them from a different perspective. This government will be talking about fair pay agreements and continued increasing of the minimum wage, and you can look at those things and say that they will be a cost increase to business, or you can look at them and say, this will give us a more proactive workforce, it will put money into that part of the economy. People will take money and spend it so it will be stimulatory. Say thisook at it and will be resisted or you can say it will be a positive thing. Businessesnces the looking and saying if they can get another loan, that it is not going to be the coalition compromise. Youre not going to have a demand to pull the government away from the things it has mandated. That taxeso you see on high income earners are going to be enough to fund the various things that the government needs to do . Infrastructure, fighting poverty. You suggest, why dont we expand on our prowess and food production. Citizens in new zealand are the citizens of new zealand just hiding themselves from the reality . Wealthy people are not usually enough to pony up the sufficient amount. You probably shouldnt look at the wealthy people. I dont think you will get your money in there. We have to look at our debt and to know that when we came into the pandemic, the new zealand books were in pretty good shape. The debt todp gdp was around 80 20. I dont think we should be afraid to continue using debt to stimulate the economy, but on the other hand, when you come back to agriculture and agro tech, you can look at the economy and say it has been there innovation and creativity that has given us create position in the market. What are we going to do that will continue to do that . Test you mentioned that of reopening borders will be something the Prime Minister will need to face. What do you think of her approach . She has had it clear that that wont happen until she things it is safe to do so . Over the past few days, what a disaster even that one way getel has been, trying to them in despite checks and balances. Is it going to be a long time before businesses can start to rely on borders reopening and tourism and International Travelers coming through . Im going to suggest that some of that caution may have been preelection. Is issue for new zealand twofold. If you look at our borders, the government is saying that we have the border under control. We know we are managing this. The only clear proof that you have the border under control is to test them. You tested it with the flights between new zealand and australia. Sawidnt work 100 when we some of them end up in other states. Lesson learned. It will depend on how much action you are prepared to take. There will be that you need to look at aunt another you cannot just sit back with reporters anded to look at that, know that you cannot just sit back with your borders closed. Abouten they are talking a possible move to negative rates. It certainly backs up any of the increased spending that the government needs to do. How does the Business Community feel about negative rates . This is New Territory for the Business Community. In the briefing i was involved in on friday we were looking at things like inflation and were not seeing any moves in rates of inflation over the next five years. You look at negative inflation and low interest rates, it does pose the question, where are you going to invest . Is this the time to grow your business . For a lot of people that is what this is going to be. Kathleen that is a positive place to end. Thank you very much. Now lets get to karina mitchell. Karina, the first warning about restrictions, the fragile recovery and the threat to jobs. They were united in their forecast saying that support will remain vital for some time. Governor called out that japan is again at risk of recession. Iran is hailing a momentous day expires. N. Arms embargo. It is seen as a symbolic victory for iran and a blow to the u. S. Which has pressured allies to extended. Protesters are vowing to continue their antigovernment push despite warnings from authorities. New protests reported across the capital and in at least a dozen provinces. Authorities were reported to have fired water accountants to disperse the crowds. China is trying to lend more autonomy to raise its profile. Protection of intellectual property and new economic regulations. More says the policies are wideranging than those given to the freetrade zone. More than several Companies Including huawei and tencent. Global news, 24 hours a day, on bloomberg and on quick take, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. Haidi the pandemic is threatening oil demand again as opec and its allies plan to meet. This is bloomberg. Haidi a snapshot of some of the views ahead of the asian trading day. The kiwi dollar rising after the elections and the resounding victory. What are we watching for now . 0 we have seen the kiwi dollar in consolidation mode since middecember. Negative determine if rates are a possibility for rbn z. Easings cold feet about given the strong sense of ecodata from manufacturing to home sales. The upcoming Inflation Report due later this week could be the 68 ifst to see it around we get a better than expected reading on inflation. Kathleen with the reflation trade potentially being held hostage, what is the outlook . Higher yield is the best of those two. Have carl oconnor at Janus Henderson penciling in 1 for the u. S. 10 year yield. The golden chief rate strategist. Of aear from now, the b rate strategist is penciling in 1. 4 for the benchmark yield for the u. S. Cautioning that higher u. S. Trade is a underpriced risk to junk bonds. Bigping the page we have a wager pricing in 75 bids of fed tightening by march 2024. The potential payoff loss could be up to about 50 million depending on how the market moves. Kathleen i love that story. Rate hikes by march 2024 would be interesting. And allies are facing pressure as the pandemic shows signs of accelerating and weakening demand for oil. The group meets later to take stock of a changing market. Traderse banks and saying the market is too fragile to handle more oil. Analystmorgan chases is one of those saying it would be on advisable. Growingders are facing pressure to back down from a plan that was to take effect in january to ease output curves. West texas intermediate has been able to bounce back above 41. It is stable. That is after the depths of that april trading frenzy put it below zero. The u. N. Secretary general just demand ised that more needed. There is concern about opecplus measures that if they manage to increase supply and the pandemic revives, demand could be hit hard and opec could be left with another surplus. Russia and saudi arabia appear to be taking the lead. Russias president and Saudi Arabian crown prince have spoken twice by phone this week. That is the first time that has happened since the depths of the oil crisis in april. That is when the leaders were talking about hashing out a deal to cut supply and stop the price war. No decision on oil or output is expected, but they are going to take the temperature of the market. Haidi in the meantime, we did see some of those gains last week. What are they saying about the changes in the market . They are saying that there are a lot of challenges but conflicting forces on the market mightfeel like trading resume once again. There is not much change from friday. Those conflicting forces are the fact that there has been a surge in covid cases, not just in the u. S. But worldwide. There is also optimism here in the u. S. A last digit preelection deal to inject stimulus. That is keeping oil prices propped up and is certainly easing any kind of decline. There is the election itself. We talked about libya which could increase oil to 200,000 barrels per day. The u. S. Rates have also been on the rise. Last week up by 12 which is another sign that production of oil is picking up. There is a lot focused on what happens on monday for opec members. Look su keenan with a ahead to those talks. If you are away from a screen, you can always find indepth analysis on the dates newsmakers on bloomberg radio. You can listen in via the app, radio plus. This is bloomberg. Haidi lets get you a quick check on the latest business flash headlines. U. S. Airlines has had their willing to return by the end of the year if they win the goahead from u. S. Regulators. The airline is planning to operated daily flight from miami to new york with bookings open from saturday. The 737 max has been grounded from last year after a fatal crash killed people in indonesia and ethiopia. Do epted 140 million 140 million u. S. Dollar rescue plan. The package aims to revive the airline as it recovers through liquidation and it was approved overwhelmingly. Jet airways were grounded by solvency since last year. Conocophillips is said to be near a deal to acquire resources which could be the largest shale deal since energy collapsed. An agreement could come later on monday. The leading player in the most prolific u. S. Oilfield. Rival only occidental and chevron in terms of output. Cutting costs amid the widespread slump in prices. They are assessing the project on the red sea coast which was expected to cost as much as 20 billion to improve existing facilities rather than building from scratch. Discussed sabic have shielding the deal. Acquisitionecial ipos are ever present this year. All over the place. Conversatione among top executives at the global conference. Scarlet fu moderated a panel that included people from Goldman Sachs and others. My hope is that we will see the path to take these Companies Public continue to involve continue to evolve. Each of them have great strengths and weaknesses. The direct listing is interesting for some companies, but so far you have not been able to raise capital alongside it. Another aks for number of companies. What has been fascinating as we are on pace to have a record year for ipos in 2020. Specs spacs go public. That has been half of the volume in ipos. It is a real alternative and the structures have evolved to make it credible. The market feels like it is starting to choke on it from a supply and demand standpoint. Its almost saying sit tight and let us digest what we have. Among everything it will be the performance differentiator. Those that do well and add value, will they be able to continue to do well and raise money . Those that dont will be one hit wonders and will not come back to the market. That will be the fake out. Im hopeful that over time the market evolves in a way that there are three to take three powers to take a Company Public and the best of those three can work with each company. Scarlet what are you seeing with the difference in spacs and ipos . Pacs spacs currently offer these alternatives and one of the reason why they are so successful is they are offered by entrepreneurs and the investors in the spacs have a great idea of what it looks like. It is one thing when you have never heard of it but it is different when it is somebody who has been successful for decades and has a great track record of being a good steward. My guess is that they are not just looking for the 40 growers but for great stable businesses. Because of the economics of the spac, there is an incentive for the sponsors of the spac to find those businesses that will be resilient and good investments. That is how they make their money. I think it is finding the right spac. That will make them continue to persist. ,ome of the one hit wonders people will see they were not bringing great investments to market and will not get reopt. Scarlet irl we have which market has the biggest bubble in your opinion . Youre trying to get chris to bite on the bubble question and now me. Scarlet this is the audience, not me. It is hard. As you look at the different markets today, its relative value. People are looking at relative value and the reason the Equity Department of traded so highly is that it is relative to that you can put your money in the bank and earn nothing or in some countries you can lose money by putting it in the bank. Compared to historical times that is making these multiples look quite high. It does not appear that there is a bubble in the market necessarily. Some of the things happening around these elevated valuations is probably a bit of an assumption of perfection and execution. You can look at the models of how these Companies Grow stop if they get to a certain level of profitability, and you discount that it is a good value today. The question is, can we get to those levels . People are putting less discount around execution and more certainty. That is how they were able to convince themselves we are able to pay the values of the markets today. Cow andhat was greg lem an chef speaking at china prepares to announce another quarter of gdp growth. Can the trajectory continue . The market open in sydney is almost upon us. This is bloomberg. So youre a small business, or a big one. You were thriving, but then. Oh. Ah. Okay. Plan, pivot. How do you bounce back . You dont, you bounce forward, with serious and reliable internet. Powered by the largest gig Speed Network in america. But is it secure . Sure its secure. And even if the power goes down, your connection doesnt. So how do i do this . You dont do this. We do this, together. Bounce forward, with comcast business. You, good morning im in we are counting down to ages market open area kathleen