Restriction due to covid19. sime minister trudeau ambitious immigration policies resulted in the fastest pace of population growth in three decades. Despite the Current Border closures, canadas immigration minister does not want to scale back the countrys immigration targets for the coming years, which includes bringing in more than 350,000 new permanent residence in 2021. The wildfires, power outages, and extreme weather ravaging california are taking a bite out of the state economic recovery. Officials say the blazes that scorched more than 4 million acres over the past three years have caused a record 1. 1 billion. This weeks hot and dry weather is reminding residents that wildfires season is not over yet. The coronavirus pandemic has also battered the state, leaving them with a 54 billion hole in the budget. Global news 24 hours a day, onair, and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. Im Mark Crumpton. This is bloomberg. Amanda welcome to bloomberg markets. Im amanda lang in toronto. Vonnie im vonnie quinn in new york. We are joined by our bloomberg and Bnn Bloomberg audiences. Here are the top stories we are following from around the world. Wall street bracing for election day. We look at what a biden or Trump Victory would mean for markets with jason trennert. Retail sales topped estimates. Consumer spending rises at the fastest pace in three months. Headwinds are increasing as stimulus talks remained stalled ahead of the election. We will discuss the outlook of the election with deborah weinswig. Museums writing the rules to survive. Having been forced to shut, museums are now selling work long off the market, hoping to turn a crisis into opportunity. Investors also looking for inflation hedges and are paying. Amanda we have a slightly more positive sentiment, momentum in the markets today. The internals are not suggesting any kind of runaway growth year. Rate sensitive groups are leading the s p 500 higher. We have that unusually strong read of retail sales. We have been watching the labor data we can as we go, bracing for the outlook from companies as they report their third quarter, looking ahead to all of this uncertainty across the market, although the nasdaq is moving higher on the broad s p 500. The tech group is flat, not offering much to the way of the upside. You can also see toronto is pretty weak as well. Financials are moving higher but energy in both places is where we are seeing real weakness. Watching that as a key sign of expectation for global growth. Lots for these markets to preoccupy themselves with. Much of it may turn on what happens november 3 and the weeks after. Many are worried about that, of course. For a long time, investors have been trying to bet whether a joe biden or donald Trump Presidency will be better for the stock rocket or the economy. Now. Trennert is with us i want to start with that premise, whether it is overly simplified, or whether you can parse out whether a biden presidency or Trump Presidency will make key differences. Jason generally speaking, i think it is a known notoriously difficult process to determine whether one candidate would be better or worse for the markets or certain set errors. In this case, it is a bit easier because the policy differences between the two candidates are quite fast. Particularly as it relates to taxes and regulation. Do think it is a bit easier this time. I have my own opinions about what is being priced in now, what is not. But i think, this time, it actually makes sense to prepare. Vonnie jamie dimon just came out a few moments ago and said he is hopeful a biden residency would help to fix u. S. Problems. Would a biden presidency be better for wall street . Jason it might be better for wall street but im not sure about the economy as a whole. The reason i say that is the Unemployment Rate is still elevated. Still at 3. 5 in february. Just shy of 8 now. Think raising taxes and this is a wideranging tax increase that the biden inistration is proposing potential but it administration. It would be on income, corporate profits, dividends, capital gains, estates. My own opinion is that would be a policy ever at this point in the recovery. What do you make of what the markets have been doing . To pandemicg back when you saw certain sectors trying to price in democratic policies, for instance, big pharma. It feels as if markets are treading water. Is that an assumption that there will be clarity if there is a democratic when, or an assumption that there is little certainty . Jason if you look at the internals of the market, there are certain Industry Groups like green energy that are pricing in a biden win. There are other Industry Groups like forprofit education that are also pricing in a Biden Victory as well. , probably as a whole understand pretty well it is going to get fiscal stimulus regardless of who is elected, or reelected. The question is, what comes with that . With a biden administration, there would be a meaningful change, in my opinion, about tax policy and regulatory policy. H a Trump Administration and i know with deficits as high as they are, this may strain credulity, but there is a strong bias for supplyside tax cuts from here, double down on the tax cuts that were past several years ago, with the idea of growing oneself out of the debt problem. Quite a vast difference. I think the market understands it is going to get something out of this given our approach thus far to the virus. It is really hard to have it both ways. You cannot have the economy locked down to a certain extent and not get fiscal stimulus. Vonnie you have the inside track on what wealthy clients are doing. Are they moving money around, trying to pass it onto the next generation, buying art . Clients are Institutional Investors, so it is a bit different. Many of them, of course, serve very wealthy clients, individual investors. Youmentioned i think call it the leadin something about gold or inflation hedges. That is something that people are looking at now, and it makes sense, given what we said before, regardless of who wins, you are likely to have higher budget deficits and debts longerterm. That is something among the Institutional Community that they are looking at. The other problem for Institutional Investors is many of them, like a state pension plan, or some sort of philanthropy, have certain benchmarks they have to hit. Average statethe pension plan has an actuarial of 7. 2 . It is hard to get there when the market is trading at 26 times earnings. It is very difficult. That is why we have talked about the subpoena trade. I wrote about this in an oped in 2013. This is tina on steroids. It is very hard to get your investor return without taking more risk, given how low Interest Rates are. Amanda i do want to ask you what you think will be the effect on investors, therefore, on markets, a real tumultuous nose after november 3. If there is contention, settled by the courts, what would happen to the state of mind of markets . Jason of course, i dont know. I did live through this once before in 2000. It was remarkably, the markets had other issues. It was after the. Com bubble had burst. The market actually dealt with it with a fair amount of equanimity. It seems hard to believe that the market would deal with this with equanimity this time, but ideas of getting somewhat more fiscal stimulus one way or the other, in my tonion, that is not going change, regardless of what the outcome is. I think also, given the fact that you have the pandemic, it yet Something Else that business men and women have to worry about in terms of their budgeting process and the rest of it. It would notg is feel good, but the markets would probably be just stuck for a while before moving in one way or another. Vonnie we will definitely talk before them. Jason trennert in the office this friday. Coming up, what about the retail last . Ry, cannot u. S. Sales rising at the fastest pace in three months but there are headwinds ahead. We speak to the Coresight Research ceo and founder deborah weinswig. This is bloomberg. Vonnie this is bloomberg markets. Im vonnie quinn in new york. U. S. Retail sales in september rising at the fastest pace in three months, topping forecast and capping a thirdquarter rebound for Consumer Spending that now faces headwinds. Isning us for more insight Coresight Research ceo and founder deborah weinswig. Explain to us how quickly we are going to see this enthusiasm drop, if that is what you believe . Deborah we are actually quite bullish for this Holiday Season, looking at sales year on year at 5 . At the pullback in spending on travel, entertainment, eating out, which was about 400 billion last year, there is a lot of the dry powder for the consumer. Our 5 we believe could even be conservative. One question that many are asking, as we look ahead to the all important Holiday Season which is now just a couple of weeks away, will the numbers hold up . I think you are suggesting yes. What could derail that for the retailers . There is theously, big elephant in the room, the election. More than anything else, it has. Een distracting to consumers there is always the weather. When it comes to the Holiday Season, we have to throw that out there. When you look at last years november sales, they were pretty weak. Not only are we seeing a season which was called early because shopping, prime day, the consumer is doing a better job planning their spend. The span that may have happened in november around the election, when there were a lot of things calling their attention, we are seeing that pull forward. We believe the Holiday Season is off to a strong start. Vonnie explain how that is possible with record numbers of people out of jobs, at the food banks, more than 8 million into poverty since the beginning of the virus. Are these figures just not picking up the people that are that low on the totable . Totem pole . Deborah great question, one that we have looked at. You had the stimulus, which was supportive for some time. Secondly, in addition, the savings rate, at one point, peaked at over 31 . About 14 right now. So the consumer has saved quite a bit. They are all looking for a joyous occasion to spend, to be a family, but many have also saved in the hopes that they would be traveling, doing more of what they did one year ago. There is this idea of dry powder on the side. Closers like we may stay to home this Holiday Season. Giving giftsience to ourselves. We may see the Holiday Season in a different way. If you look at the past five years, the idea that experience, not things. Now it is turning more to things, not experiences. And that is a big shift. Amanda do you expect to see the trends that we have seen continue . Certain categories of than ever, like home improvement, and other categories suffering. Is this what we will see for the next few months . Some of the more discretionary categories like apparel, footwear, fashion have started to pick up on a yearoveryear basis. What we are starting to see is the consumer moving to more of structured apparel. Denim, away from yoga pants, sweats. What we believe will continue to happen is this returned to more normal dressing. There is one thing that you brought up earlier, what can derail the season . There is a lack of merchandise. Everybody cut in march and april. Also drive the demand pull forward. The shells are not full. The consumer is smart to understand that they need to do their shopping early if they want to make sure there is something under the tree. Amanda gets earlier every year. Thanks for being with us. Coming up next, putting a dollar value on the price list. Museums are moving to sell some of their art collections in order to stay afloat. This is bloomberg. Amanda this is bloomberg markets. Im amanda lang in toronto. The pandemic has taken a toll on some of the oldest and most established institutions, including museums. Some are moving to sell their more recognizable pieces in order to fund their operations and generally shaking up their business model. Lets start with the sale of some of their older items. We know there is an appetite out there for this kind of hard asset. What would move a museum to relinquish its inventory in this way . Museums have been struggling desperately since march when overnight they had to shut their doors and lost a huge percentage of their revenue. Historically, museums were allowed to sell art in only to buy more or other arts. They were not allowed to use the money to pay their curators or conservators or to keep the lights on. In april, when the situation was dire, museum after museum again furloughing people. This organization that kind of regulationse of the of museums, the association of Art Museum Director theres, they decided directors, they decided to loosen the rule that they could not use the sale of art for anything other than buying more art. Now they are allowed to use this money for a period of two years to direct care of their collections. Salaries oflso be the staff that takes care of the collection. That is really a game changer in the industry. Floodgateske the have opened up the season and several prominent museums are selling their masterpieces. Vonnie it is a phenomenal turnaround. E are also seeing works bid up there is a lot of demand for some of these works. We had the suggestion that it is perhaps inflation hedging, or foreign money is not buying as much real estate, all sorts of other suggestions. What are you hearing . Katya surprisingly strong prices for very rare, stellar prof announced pieces. Its a function of Interest Rates at the moment and also the equity markets, credit markets being so expensive. Looking forors are assets that do not correlate necessarily with the stock market. Wealthy move to buying real estate outside of urban centers. Places like palm beach, the Real Estate Market is on fire. A lot of times people are buying fancy homes and they need art to put on the walls. That has something to do with it probably, too. Amanda one of the changes we have seen is the move to online auctions. Do you expect to see more of that in the future because the margins work so well for everybody, is so efficient . Katya it is so efficient. Christies and sothebys both tripled the number of their online auctions from the beginning of the year as a result of the pandemic. They have held their superduper sales online which usually fill up rooms in new york. Christies, last week, had. 80,000 viewers of this option huge numbers. Auction. Also, new buyers are flooding into the market. Whether people are just bored being at home [laughter] or looking for other investments. These auctions have been incredibly successful. A certain degree it really just pushed auction houses into this new world. They have been planning, adding these online only sales gradually, but the one thing to keep in mind is that, over all volumes have really gone down dramatically. It is not like online is making up all the difference. Vonnie katya kazakina, wonderful stuff. Urge everyone to go to the bloomberg to read stuff. This is bloomberg. [ sigh ] not gonna happen. Thats it. Im calling kohler about their walkin bath. My name is ken. How may i help you . Hi, im calling about kohlers walkin bath. Excellent happy to help. Huh . Hold one moment please. [ finger snaps ] hmm. The kohler walkin bath features an extrawide opening and a low stepin at three inches, which is 25 to 60 lower than some leading competitors. The bath fills and drains quickly, while the heated seat soothes your back, neck and shoulders. Kohler is an expert in bathing, so you can count on a deep soaking experience. Are you seeing this . The kohler walkin bath comes with fully adjustable hydrotherapy jets and our exclusive bubblemassage. Everything is installed in as little as a day by a kohlercertified installer. And its made by kohler americas leading plumbing brand. We need this bath. Yes. Yes you do. A kohler walkin bath provides independence with peace of mind. Ask about saving up to 1,500 on your installation. Virtual appointments now available. Mark im Mark Crumpton with bloombergs first word news. President trump is back on the campaign trail. He will deliver a speech implored today on protecting americas seniors. He then heads to georgia for a make America Great again rally. Joe biden is campaigning in the battleground state of michigan and will deliver remarks on Affordable Health care. He will attend an event in detroit to urge residents to vote early, in person. Wins theif mr. Biden presidency, he plans to fill his National Security team with officials well known in the washington beltway who have a lot of government experience. Bloomberg has learned biden has two top people for secretary of state. Top pentagon and intelligence posts are also expected to be filled by people who worked in those fields for years. Five of the men accused in a plot