What did you miss . Caroline brexit, but we are also 19 days away from the u. S. Election. Volatility is going to be a term you will hear a lot of. Howare already seeing stimulus has been the constant drumbeat for weeks. Covid lockdown in europe sent equities to their worst day in more than three weeks. All we hear is analysts adjusting their game plan for a potential democratic sweep. Investors are using every data point they can to help them prepare. At least at the moment, it feels as though the jitters surrounding the election have calmed a bit. The polls seem to widen. Joe no doubt about that. For a long time, the election has been seen as this key mother of all volatility events. Lots of concern about an election that drags on until january. All of that could happen. We have no idea what will happen. Markets seem to be a little less anxious. We do see a flattening of the volatility curve perhaps due to the increasing believe that joe biden is in the lead. Maybe it will not be that close. Perhaps markets a little less anxious about along drawn out affair. Joining us with more on this, bloomberg asset reporter katie groenefeld. Thank you for joining us. Is that the basic story, that at least this long drawn out anxiety acute fears that we thought would show up in various options coming down due to a little more confidence in the outcome . Katie that is what i hear talking to people in the markets. So far, people are taking the polls at face value even though we had that surprise four years ago with trumps victory. As you get closer to the election and some of those weekly contracts start to come into play and it is all we are going to be talking about, that you could see a little more volatility, more headline risk and more movement on that. In terms of what the volatility market is looking at now, we have a fairly big event tomorrow. The monthly expert reefer stocks, indexes and etfs. This is the stakes are higher now just because we have seen so much activity in the options market. Concentrated in those faang names that retailers tend to love this year. Given that they make up so much of the nasdaq 100 index, that does have the potential to move the markets. Not promising anything but is onews expiry to watch. Caroline we have had guests talking about volatility in particular. Not so much the options pricing and whether that are is a way back. Had softbank saying we are just a dolphin. We are not a whale. Whalesu heard of talk of and people pushing these markets higher . We had apple up 6. 5 up. Katie it has been a fun few weeks will watching. You have seen the whale emerge. Talking to people such as ben investors, the biggest component is the retail traders. They tend to go for the short dated options, which have a lot of convexity and accelerate dealer hedging pressure, which moves the price around more than the longer dated, six month options we have spotted the whale in. The whale has been out there. We have not seen that this week, but people are talking about the retail traders are back in the market. You are seeing single stomach options boom in demand. Joe it seems there is this weird inversion going on of conventional wisdom in the market. For a long time, single name equities super risky so you want to be safe and be diversified. Now, people seem to be adopting the mentality of, we do not know where the stock market is going to go but i feel safe buying this one company because it has a discrete idiosyncratic story. People might feel safer heading out to a single name then something broadly exposed to the economy or the election. Katie it has been interesting to watch, especially around election season. If you look at the ratios on single stocks, investors are very bullish. If you look at the ratios on the indexes themselves, you are seeing a lot of protection by. Mandy was on the program earlier from credit suisse. She made a good point that election season is a stock pickers time to shine. It makes sense that people are going with what they know. We know earnings are coming up in these specific names. Lets focus our attention there and maybe we will grab some attention since there is some uncertainty out there. Caroline correlations have been falling on the earnings. What then as we build toward the election and if people are backing off the vix or other volatility measures, would googled be a haven of choice . The dollar has been rising. U. S. Treasuries come into play. Our people looking at a broader portfolio . Katie it is a tough question to answer because there has been so over the demise of the 6040 portfolio. If it does not work as well, what do you go to if not u. S. Treasuries . I have heard a mix of things. Gold has act did a little funky this year. Some people are definitely still going to it. One of the more interesting theories i have heard is that perhaps Chinese Government bonds and the yields are very high relative to the u. S. It is close to a record on the 10 year. They tend to be uncorrelated from the u. S. Bond market. They respond to different signals. Given how low treasury yields are, we are under 70 basis points on the 10 year. There is more room for those to rally. Caroline interesting. Not always that much access to chinese bonds. That continues to progress. Great to have you. Coming up, with less than 20 days until the election, we consider our conversation about risk to the market. This is bloomberg. Caroline today, we are focused on risks in the markets ahead of the u. S. Election. Joe, the use of alternative and big data. Trying to gauge how the economy is faring. Joe this has been a thing for a long time. Investors using alternative data, Realtime Data to engage to gauge how the economy is doing. It has accelerated a lot in this crisis. The demand is massive because the economy changes have been fastmoving. The yellow line is the opentable data, a good measure of a return to normal this. It kind of stalled out. Blue line is retail traffic. Kind of plateaued. Physical retail is way off the lows. By various measures, retail has a long way to go. We see the white line, that is the gdp measure of growth. For more on what is going on, i want to bring in Jp Morgan Global Research chair joyce chang. Thank you for joining us. There are so many moving parts right now. There is a general question of the pure economy and the degree to which that is recovering. , whichs a virus itself is its own distinct thing at this point. That has to be measured. And then of course, the election. From your perspective, what is the key thing investors need to be watching first and foremost . Joyce it is great to be here. First and foremost, everyone is focused on the u. S. Election. Have seen a real seachange. The market has come full circle from thinking if you had a blue wave, it would be bad for the market. Now thinking if you had a status quo trump any republican senate, that might be the worst thing for the senate. The immediate focus is on whether the elections will be orderly. That is even more of a focus than the actual outcome. I think that is the first thing markets are focused on. Then they are focused on the rebound. After seeing such a synchronized downturn in the Second Quarter and just off the synchronized upturn in the third quarter, you are in the Fourth Quarter heading into the murky period. We warn everyone not to confuse a rebound with a recovery. Anare still calling this incomplete recovery. We think there is going to be four Percentage Points where we were prepandemic at the end of 2021. That there is the health crisis. Where are we with a Covid Vaccine . Parts of europe are reclosing again. Is there a second wave . I would say these three things are the focus right now with the election being front and center. Caroline lets focus in on the election and how people you are speaking to as your role of Global Research chair, what you are delivering to your clients at the moment and what they are drinking in terms of how to change their portfolio ahead of this monumental event. Moved the polls have toward the blue wave scenario. The focus is on the senate. We have done scenarios. We have done the blue wave, the status quo and the biden presidency with a split congress. The ways we have tried to frame this is first to look at what the implications are with respect to the fiscal package. Are we going to get this front loaded physical package by early 2021 of which the market is anticipating . That is where the senate race becomes very important because it was not easy to get 500 billion with the senate republicans. Now you are seeing there is a lot of concern that if you do have a split result, is there going to be more attention as the publican hawks come back . As republican hawks come by . The first question is if it is a blue wave, how quickly could we see a fiscal package come through . The market is feeling something has to be done on the fiscal stimulus side because there is enough uncertainty about having an effective vaccine that is widespread that you do need a fiscal package to carry us through this period. The market has confidence that your respective of the election outcome, you will see some type of fiscal package forthcoming. Joe i mean, it is very interesting to me because i think there was a point in which the stock market was doing extremely well under trump and maybe people interpreted the prospect of a Biden Victory or a blue wave. At one point, i would have seen that it is easy to imagine people wouldve thought of that as a negative. It is entirely due to this fiscal prospect of fiscal stimulus and from a policy dam point, is fiscal above a policy standpoint. Biden administration would appoint as treasury. Is it about the potential fiscal deal and what drives the market . Joyce we really do have to look at what happens with tax policy. You would have to think if it is a blue wave, they would have to put some of these changes in place in the first year of the administration before the midterm election. Looking at the bill back butter plan, targets try to raise revenue from 16 to 19 of gdp in the first year. What we have done as the following. We basically looked at, what if we reduced half of the tax benefit put into place . Takes aboutthat nine dollars off of etfs. On the others that, you have other side of that, you have proposals to increase the minimum wage to 15. You have the 2 trillion Infrastructure Program with a real focus on a Green Recovery as well. Those are offsetting factors. The market is feeling like we need to get the election over with. We hope that it is orderly. That is a bigger concern. We need to see what happens in federalte because any legislation is going to have to go through the senate or it will have to go through some type of reconciliation project around march or april. I think it is getting the election out of the way and then you are going to have to get back to what the market had been looking at before the elections. Where are we with the curve with respect to addressing covid19 with respect to a vaccine . Big the fiscal is piece ist of it, but a what the market had been focused on when it had the more bearish scenarios. Current mood is focused on a fiscal package or something that will the market hopes is forthcoming in the first quarter. Caroline you have been done a lot of research in what is happening in terms of the wealth gap that continues to go wider because of what happens with covid19. Your perspective on whatever shape the economy takes. Are you looking at what happens on what the outcomes if people continue to be left behind. Joyce we have seen the wealth gap widened. We have done a lot of work on how this has affected financial outcomes across race and also the 1 of the population compared to the bottom 50 . We do see a widening wealth gap. This is why the fiscal package is so important. We stop unemployment at 7 at the end of 2020 we still have unemployment at 7 at the end of 2021. It looks unlikely that youre going to have a vaccine widely available and used and it requires two doses until more like the middle of 2021. I think the concern will remain very much on those gaps. You are seeing the private sector is stepping up. Businesses are stepping up. Jp morgan has announced a number of programs the last couple of months to address this. Whether it is the need to go to local communities and create jobs or it is to increase lending into minority owned businesses, all of these kinds of issues are front and center. The esg issues are back on the table as something where it is a musthave for investors right now to have thought about the strategy around. It is not something that is just nice to have with the cap weight till later to have or that can wait until later. Joe coming up, dueling townhomes between President Trump and democratic president ial nominee joe biden. We give you the state of the race for the white house next. This is bloomberg. Caroline today, we have been focusing on all the risks ahead of the u. S. Election. So far, we have discussed how wall street is preparing. We want to look at the race itself. I cast my mind back to 2016 and brexit. The polls pointed in one direction. It was the betting companies that were pointing towards the right direction. What date are you looking at . Joe every morning, ive been looking at the predictive data, the main u. S. Based. Biden inal lead for these markets. Trump is at 40 . It is not like the markets do not see him as an extreme longshot at all, but it has been a substantial, sustained lead. It has grown over the past few weeks in the wake of the last debate. There was going to be a debate this week and of course that did not happen. Lets turn to tyler, Bloomberg National political reporter who is covering the biting campaign. Thank you for joining us. Trump has to make some news in theory. If the polls are correct, how does he generate some sort of momentum change this late in the game . Tyler i think the debate was an opportunity to do that. I think privately, some i didnt advisors some biden might be happy he is not on the debate stage. Stagejust overtook the and polling showed it did not turn out so well for him. He needs to get back, try to get back to some of those issues that propelled him in 2016. He keeps getting overshadowed and distracted by other issues at the coronavirus pandemic that he does not have a handle on. It is kind of the main issue that voters are thinking about every day. Frustrating of course most of use in end up going to social media. Vps take to the stage last week and it was less of a brutal attack. A flyly got involved got involved once again. What are we hearing about any future campaigning coming from the vps considering coronavirus seems to be attacking the democrat side rather than the republicans . Today, thebig news democratic Vice President shall cancelingmala harris her Campaign Appearances over the weekend after a member of her crew tested positive for coronavirus. She was supposed to be in North Carolina today. They adapted those to be a virtual event. The Biden Campaign is taking a different approach with coronavirus transparency than the president is. The news of President Trumps publices only became after one of our colleagues wrote that story about hope hicks. Detailed very specifically about when this aid tested positive, contacted porters who were traveling with harris to let them know they should be tested even their proximity. Right now, they are saying that Kamala Harris will get back on the road next week. I will note that both that both Vice President joe biden and senator harris have tested negative in the last day for covid19. Joe i recall in the final few weeks of 2016, trump was figuring out where to go. They went to michigan. That turned out right. He was able to break the blue wall, midwest great lakes state. Where in the final few weeks does the battle appear to be happening . Need totes does trump defend or go after to get to that 270 electoral votes . Tyler we are seeing trump a lot more on defense than we might have predicted. He was in iowa last night, a 2016. He handily won in he is going to georgia, and other state he won. Even the democrats see that as an expansion state than a true traditional battleground state. He is playing defense more than the campaign wouldve liked. Biden, a lot more of the traditional path was in florida. He is going to pennsylvania tonight. I think we will expect to see him a lot more in michigan and wisconsin than may be in a state like texas or georgia despite democrats in those states hoping he would make the trip because they feel like it is within reach. That also characterizes the sense of the race right now. Trump very much on defense and biden going to those traditional battleground states that you think of candidates would have to be in thank both candidates would have to be in. Caroline great to have some time with you. Miss . S all for whatd you Bloomberg Technology is up next. Joe have a great evening. This is bloomberg. Emily i and emily chang in san francisco. And this is Bloomberg Technology. Response toump twitter and facebook about blocking access to a New York Post article about joe biden. Plus, to go public or to not go public