Absolutely extraordinary. I know lisa is going to touch on this. Can we all focus a moment on 800,000 in claims at 8 30 . What is still involved in our politics and our markets is a labor economy that is, to be polite, fragile. Jonathan secretary mnuchin throwing some cold water over that. We need to talk about the new restrictions across the continent in europe. The economic recovery in europe was already fragile, already stalling. These restrictions will make that worse. Tom ive so glad you bring this up. You and i have been going back and forth on this since you got up at 9 00 a. M. London time. What i really want to focus on is the federal solution and application in europe versus the statebystate solution in america. Is that accurate . Jonathan youve also got the local issues in the United Kingdom that have really brought london into the equation. The north of the country was facing much tougher restrictions , looking down to london and asking, what about them . The answer is london might be upgraded to tier two, which means we might face further restrictions. 5, 1 4 of this economy. For europe right now, sub 50 on services coming into october. It is october, not november. It is not december. Winter has hardly got started, and we are already having this conversation. Tom i know weve got to get the hour started on radio and tv. Swiss 20 year in five massive 0. 313 . Nts a lisa, i cannot data in america lisa, Economic Data in america. Lisa the expectation is for the information to be messy. California recalibrating some of the way they calculate jobless claims. What we expect is a slowdown in the recovery, this idea that we are not going to accelerate out of this recession without some additional support, which brings me to fed speak. We are getting even more of it. I know you are hanging on every single word from bostick, bullard, and kashkari. I am particularly interested in vice chair of supervision randy quarles. He came out yesterday and said the treasury market maybe too big at this point for the fed to step away, and will need to have a material role in the functioning of the market forever to come. P. M. , these 8 00 dueling town meetings between former Vice President joe biden and President Trump on abc and nbc effectively. Very interesting. The virtual debate not happening, but now we have dueling townhalls come up with questions about how people will get to view both of them. Jonathan we will talk about that no doubt later in this hour. Lets get to the price action this morning. Shaping up as follows. Equity futures breaking down. Big losses in europe. At one point, the dax was down more than 3 . The s p right now, down 0. 9 . In europe, where i wake up at 4 30 local time tom oh, please. Here we go. [laughter] jonathan just throwing it out there. Gabriela santos has been trying for five years to transfer to london for j. P. Morgan so she can do the ferro act. Jonathan its a lovely building there. Gabriela santos joins us now, j. P. Morgan Global Market strategist. What are you more concerned about this morning . Fiscal talks breaking down stateside, more restrictions in europe . Gabriela thank you for the invitation. In terms of the markets, we are trying to wrestle with two things at the same time. The first is, as longterm investors, we are trying to position for where we are going over the next couple of years. We are in a brandnew economic with fiscal support that does not seem to be going away anytime soon, and one that is much more regionally diversified for that reason. We are overweighting equities, credit, and keeping it regionally diversified, but we have to square that with some of the more shortterm concerns over the next couple of months around the path of the virus come around when we get more fiscal support. For that, i think you want to be a little less overweight than you normally would. You still want to keep a certain amount of duration to offset some of the shortterm uncertainty here. But overall, we are still thinking of an early cycle playbook looking through some of the shortterm noise. Tom we oscillate back and forth between technology, largecap, you know to the drill you know the drill. Then we go over to what institutional wall street wants to see. Smallcap, international, you know the drill. You are living it. When do we get the shift . Gabriela to the credit of large knology stocks largecap technology stocks, they contribute at this point close to 1 4 of Earnings Growth for the s p 500. That is much more in line with their representation of the index at this point, so very different from the dotcom bubble. We are expecting Earnings Growth from the tech sector in the third quarter. But i think we are all falling victim to a bit of a recency bias, thinking we will forever live in this virtual world. We just dont think that is the case. We have to believe that at some point, we will we able to leave the virus behind, and we want to go back to some sort of real interaction at some point in the future. Aretruth is cyclical stocks priced as though we would never get back to that life. We are looking for opportunities and things like industrials, materials, financials, residential and office reads, really to try to take advantage of that dislocation, thinking about the next couple of years. Lisa residential and office reads, that is brave. [laughter] do you want to elaborate . Gabriela i do. [laughter] example ofis a great this recency bias. When we look at the sector, the only thing that has really done well this years industrial reads, going along with the ecommerce theme because there has been so much spending on withs like warehouses, digital storage, and then you have every other kind of read in deep negative territory. I think you have a sweet with residential and office where it is not an existential threat, unlike retail, and you do have the ability of people to eventually go back to the office. We are very big proponents of office culture. We think that is very important. Maybe you have a more flexible arrangement, but it is not something they can write off altogether. As a business, you still need to have availability for all of your employees to come in. So i think that is a great example of a dislocation that has happened beneath the market that we dont think is justified. Lisa so many people have come on the show and talk about how financial seal under price financials feel underpriced. They just reported earnings. Jp morgan beat expectations. So did a host of other banks, yet their shares have still gotten beaten up. Why . Lisa i think gabriela i think that is an interesting point about the uniqueness of this cycle versus other previous cycles. We have fresh in our minds the last cycle, the Financial Sector was at the center of the existential threat, and that is not the case this time. So it is not an existential threat for the Financial Sector. We are missing is really a catalyst to get stock prices off of their still bear market territory. We were thinking that the decrease in loan loss provision could be that catalyst because it signals the potential for a bottoming and earnings for the big banks. I think the trouble is around the messaging of that being a bit uncertain, and the pass of the virus and more fiscal support. We should have a recovery in the path of financial stocks. Jonathan weve got to leave it there. Looking forward to seeing you in london soon. Gabriela looking forward to it. Thank you. Jonathan lets get to the price action this thursday morning. Your equity market looking a Little Something like this, with futures lower, down 35. We are off by 1 . The equity pain is really focused in europe. Look to the bond market. Treasuries breaking 70 basis points. The dax is off by 2. 8 now. It was down 3 and change earlier. These changes in europe are going to add to the lack of momentum the economy already has. Tom i am not dont go into this because of time. Lisa is going to unplug by unplug my mic. There you go muting me again. Standardd a two deviation study of s p index s p and dax. S p is just barely off its recent highs, and the dax has really taken damage, well under the 50 percentile mark on that study. Jonathan weve got to get more specific about this international rotation. It is not just about Everything Else xus. I think you have to be looking at europe versus asia. When we are looking at further restrictions across the continent, we are also talking about oncallsing talking about hong kongsingapore, opening up that corridor even more. How asia is handling this, how europe is handling this, and how america is handling this as well. Lisa that is the reason you saw incredible demand for the latest u. S. Dollar bond out of china. That is why you see so much money flooding into china despite the increasing tensions between the u. S. And china. It raises the question, how long does this have legs, and how much is this just an indictment of the failures of the u. S. And europe in containing the virus . Jonathan a question of this evening, what is on cbs tonight . Does anyone know . [laughter] tom big brother. Big brother is a show where you are sequestered in a house, and you cant watch campaign ads. Jonathan very successful. Started in the netherlands. Tom julie chen. Jonathan very cool. I would love to see you on big brother. That would be great. Lisa look at those markets. Jonathan look at those markets. [laughter] wieting ofsteve citi. This is bloomberg. Tom good morning. With the first word news, im ritika gupta. The chances of Congress Passing preelection stimulus are all but gone. Treasury secretary Steven Mnuchin is blaming politics, saying democrats dont want to give President Trump something to brag about in his campaign. Democrats say the white house never took the need for another stimulus seriously enough to push for compromise. Senate democrats are all but powerless to keep Amy Coney Barrett off the supreme court, so they used their final day of questioning at the confirmation hearing to grill her about statements made by President Trump. Barrett declined to answer whether the president has the right to delay the election and an absolute right to pardon himself. Another sign of the impact of the coronavirus on education. There has been a sharp decline in enrollment of new students this semester and undergraduates. Total undergraduate enrollment is down 4 from your echo from a year ago. Global news 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. Im ritika gupta. This is bloomberg. I dont care that there are others who are bigger. That is not the point. Providingis we are the opportunities we need for shareholders and depressed and the best product out there. Jonathan james gorman of jp morgan of Morgan Stanley. From new york this morning, good morning. Lower, mucheding lower in europe. The s p 500 down 36, 1 . In the bond market, a break of basis points, 0. 6 nevin 0. 675 . Eurodollar down by about 0. 3 . Tom euro swissie going to go 1. 07. H a strong swiss franc would speak volumes about the weaker euro. Right now, on Morgan Stanley and the success of gorman relative to Goldman Sachs, but really relative to many, Alison Williams joins us with bloomberg intelligence. Basaklly bencic sonali joining us in a bit. Does Morgan Stanley need to be an International Bank to keep the gorman plan going . Alison i think they do, and they are, but the bigger story is the shift towards wealth and asset management. Not dramatically bigger by the gotten dramatically bigger by thiswo deals announced year. What we are listening for today are what are the changes in the pro forma expectations now that e trade has closed. They announced that deal in february before the pandemic really took hold, and since then, e trade has done pretty well in terms of new accounts, client assets. Very strong. So how does that change the outlook for the commodities business now that that deal has closed . Lisa after Goldman Sachs reported their earnings, they came out beating expectations significantly on the bond trading side. The rivalry that Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs has, who is going to win . What do you expect when we get these earnings from Morgan Stanley . Alison at the end of the day, they are both very strong inequities, so it really comes down a bit to bragging rights, but it is going to be close. It was notable that Goldman Sachs in the first half returned to leadership for the first time in many years, so over the long term, market share is important because obviously, if you want to be competitive in your business and the u. S. Leaders, it has helped them over time over periods whether overall revenue pool has declined. They have grown revenue by those share increases. But for equity trading in particular, goldman had a blowout quarter. Really only one area where they came in about in line was equities trading, and they are really just a few tens of millions short of what we are expecting from Morgan Stanley, so again, both probably strong this quarter, but we will see who gets the bragging rights. Jonathan and none of it lisa and none of it matters because financial spikes are down, and have been with a couple of minor exceptions. What is the narrative . Can Morgan Stanley do anything to counter it . Alison two things on that point which are kind of interesting. First of all, the narrative between banks is really the Capital Markets ones are sort of where investors are tending to want to be because this cycle is a cycle where having less Balance Sheet is key. That was true last cycle, but unfortunately for the investment banks, they had really toxic Balance Sheets. This time, Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs have less provision risk, less credit risk , especially Morgan Stanley, and those stocks have done better relative. In general for the financials, what is difficult is the big amount of uncertainty out there. This quarter, i believe as you said earlier, the provisions are coming down, but no one really cares about that because there is still so much uncertainty and because the banks are talking about chargeoffs not peeking until the end of next year under a base case scenario. They provision for that, so they set aside money. So in a base case, it looks like they wont have to add anymore reserves. But i think it is very difficult with all of that uncertainty out there. Stocks dont like uncertainty to move further. Finally, i would just note the dividend issue as well. Tom long ago and far away in the time of Alison Williams and sanford bernstein, there was understanding that even if Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs had good quarters, you couldnt bank it on a persistent basis, may be to use the overused word right now, resilience. Is there cash flow now newly persistent and resilient, where you can price them or value them higher because you believe in a persistency of good news . Alison to that point, i do think that no matter how many quarters in a row these banks will put up good trading numbers, the bottom line is it can go away very quickly, so investors are always going to count that risk. That is one of the reasons why Morgan Stanley is moving more towards things like wealth and asset management. Goldman doing the same with some of its businesses, what they refer to as more durable, recurring revenue. You might make money every quarter in trading, but when you value those earnings, because they can go away overnight and they are transactional, you are just going to give them less credit for that. Quarter,tories this provisions are lower, that is not repeatable. Trading is also a really big driver, and investors feel like that is not repeatable. I think that is why, despite the fact we are getting these big beats, it is not necessarily being extrapolated for the future. One important point for Goldman Sachs, one benefit of their blowout quarter is the huge build in capital. They were very close to their ratio. They werent quite where they needed to be as of the new october requirement, and they jumped over that with a huge build in capital this quarter. Morgan stanley, as i said, i think the longerterm story is the shift towards wealth and asset management, but still, investors are going to want to see them keep pace in trading, so they might not necessarily extrapolate that, but they will look at how does Morgan Stanley perform against the banks and want to make sure they are keeping pace. Catch up brilliant to this morning. Still waiting for Morgan Stanley. Sonali bencic, our wall street sonali basak come our wall , lookingrrespondent out for that. Down 0. 9 , and europe down much harder. Eurodollar, 1. 1713. Your swissie one to watch euro swissie one to watch. Treasury yields bleed lower, down three basis points on the tenure. Your yield is 0. 6975 . Alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, im jonathan ferro. His is bloomberg surveillance and new from london york, this is bloomberg surveillance. Alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, im jonathan ferro. Breaking down on equity futures. On the s p, we are down 0. 9 . 1. 1713. Ar, 0. 6991 , somarket, a break of about 70 basis points. Morgan stanley numbers just coming out. We want to cross over to our colleague sonali basak, alongside tom keene in new york to break down the figures. Sonali really clean numbers over here. Beat, and epsties beat. They are the number one equity shop on wall street. When they had been playing tag with Goldman Sachs in them a recent in the most recent quarters. The question is, do they have the pipeline in Investment Banking like Goldman Sachs says they have . It is a choppy time in the markets, and we see the rusted liquidity continue. The rush to liquidity continue. Jonathan we will catch up with you a little bit later in the segment. Down 0. 9 on s p hundred futures off the back of more decisions s p 500 futures off the back of more decisions in europe. As reaction by policymakers, well as market participants. What are we hearing from germany, from france, spain, italy, the u. K. . What is the difference between the approaches . , we are hearing leaders of and french president macron announcing this curfew for cities across. France, including paris. In germany across france, including paris. In germany, chancellor merkel is urging state leaders to have an even stricter lockdown than the one they agreed to last night, she is meeting resistance from these leaders. Germany is a federal system very similar to what viewers in the u. S. Would think of in terms of the federal government versus the states, and the state leaders in germany are resisting some of these measures that merkel is pushing for. For example, disagreeing with her on measures such as restricting travel within the country. It really all boils down to the economics. Everyone is very concerned on the continent about another lockdown and what that could mean, not just for the health of people here, but for the economy as a whole. Jonathan the local pushback is something we saw in spain, we are seeing in the United Kingdom in the last 24 hours, with perhaps the exception of sadiq khan, who is asking for it, which is a unique situation for anyone in the local authority. What i want to know is whether we are seeing the outcome here of a poor adherence to social distancing and mask wearing, or just the very fact that we are moving into the colder part of the year. Chad i think it is a little bit of both. What is interesting is the German Health minister jens spahn has said what germany needs is not necessarily more restrictions, but people to adhere to the restrictions that germany has already in place, and in merkels appeal last night in this very late night press conference, she basically said people need to wear masks. They need to wear them in public , and they need to adhere to the social distancing. We are going to be hearing from jens spahn in just about an hour, speaking exclusively to us here at bloomberg, talking to our colleague matt miller. We will be hearing more on that from him a little bit later this afternoon. Tom chad, thank you so much. Chad thomas from berlin on the movable feast of pandemic news on the continent of europe. Right now, Thierry Wizman from , and of course, legendary at bear stearns on e. M. I want to go to the great pandemic divide, which is a pacific rim which seems to have attacked together, and to have its act together, and the western world that does not. How does that play out in the gdp, and how does it play out in Investment Opportunity . Thierry china was first into the coronavirus pandemic and crisis, and seems to be the first out. If you look even at the export numbers, they seem to be rebounding. But there is a bit of another story for china and asia. I think this is the fact that they are able to take an advantage to some extent of what is happening in the west. Think of china, for example. Its manufacturing exports have done exceedingly well in the past few months, and we have to attribute some of that to the fact that they are exporting things like personal protection equipment, masks, the electronics that the west is going to use to overcome or circumvent some of the more adverse aspects of the coronavirus, including things like working from home. So in an odd turn of events, not only is asia coming out of this first, in part because of the respect for rules in their cultures, but they are also taking advantage of the fact that the west is in the dumps right now by boosting their exports, i think that the west desperately needs at this time. Lisa how do you trade this . We know that the pboc and chinas government has a pretty strong hand in the movement of the yuan. How do you get ahead of this dominance we are seeing from china . Thierry if what you are suggesting is that the chinese do not like currency volatility, i wouldnt stand here and say there is no way to play fx. You can still play to the forward market. You can still play to optionality. You can make the case that up until recently, we have seen a massive amount of offshore investors, western investors in china buying dollars against the yuan to hedge against the risk of oneday seeing devaluation in the yuan. They have been buying optionality in dollaryuan to protect themselves against additional devaluation that might take place because of worsening conditions. Volatilityth prospectively going to dampen their, with a perspective biden presidency, the way you play this is by betting on lower volatility going forward. Hedgers are going to unwind those positions. Implied volatility is going to fall. Forward points are going to compress. That is going to be a sign that there is more safety and china. And yes, there are ways to play more safety through the markets. For example, just through those means. Another way is to simply buy Corporate Bonds and china. They are yielding quite a bit. If you believe risk in asia is coming down, those are still good bets. Lisa what about the u. S. . Theres a feeling you should go into riskier credit here because the fed has your back and they will continue to ease they have no choice. Is that a valid bet, or should people just go buy bonds . Thierry that is a valid bet. In fact, the fed is unlikely to go out and buy the junk bonds of companies and sectors that are not viable. If you are talking about airlines and restaurants, i would avoid them. For of just about Everything Else, i believe the fed does have your back, yes. Jonathan treasury yields raking down by about three basis points. All this talk of fiscal stimulus, and we cant get above 70 on a sustainable basis. , 63 basisermany points is your 10 year in germany right now. Government bonds still looking for. Tom stan fischer over at black walk over at blackrock would say you take five basis points and divide by that statistic. It is a huge percentage move we are seeing in europe. Thierry wizman, that really speaks to the markets speaking. Are the markets telling the institutions what to do . Is the market telling the fed and other Central Banks what to do . Thierry i think so. Think certainly, it is the case that the market is disappointed with the fact that the fed has not articulated a more concrete policy path that conforms better to their new average inflation targeting strategy. I think the market would have wanted to see the fed commit itself to something at the last policy meeting. They be the fed will simply preserve its ammunition for november 5. May on november 5, right after the election, in the possibility of a situation with a lot of uncertainty with regards to the president ial election outcome, maybe we will see something. But i agree, the market is trying to tell the fed you havent done enough yet. You maybe need to set up some inflation target numbers to make a stronger case for pursuing the average inflation target and policy. To the ecbets get and october 29. The European Central bank right now, we are reporting this morning at bloomberg that the ecb arent in a rush to add stimulus to the next meeting. Two weeks from now, the pmis are already negative if you look at the service is pmis for the continent. Restrictions they are adding this morning on some of the biggest economies across europe, then adding the u. K. As well. For the ecb, whats next . Thierry i think whats next for the ecb is more structural. They are going to have their own Strategic Review early in 2021, and i think they may adopt their own version of average inflation targeting. I think that is where the eyes are pointed with the government counsel. There are still some members that are opposed to this, but i think it will happen at some point in 2021. I think the october 29 meeting is still too early to anticipate or expect policy measures. However, i would be concerned about the european economy. We are going into the christmas then at that point, you will start wondering if the yearoveryear gdp numbers as of q4 in the euro zone fall below the 5. 5 threshold that consensus is looking forward to right now. Two weeks away from that ecb meeting at a time where a week feels like a year. Thierry wizman of macquarrie, thank you. Morgan stanley stock down about 0. 3 . We want to touch in with sonali basak for more. Sonali you have a 24 pretax margin in Wealth Management, lower than what james gorman likes to be posting. There will be questions about that on the call, and what is driving a lot of that weakness, especially as they are doubling down on the Wealth Management business, this is the first Earnings Period in which they actually own e trade. That acquisition closed a couple of weeks ago. Theres also some weakness in some Investment Banking businesses. A decline in fixed income underwriting. You saw a lower rise then we saw over at Goldman Sachs. We will have questions about what kind of market share we think they are gaining, but right now, they are standing in between jp morgan and Goldman Sachs. Jonathan wrapping up earnings on wall street, Morgan Stanley unchanged in early trading. Interview a timely of foreignister affairs. This is bloomberg. Ritika with the first word news, im ritika gupta. Dont count on another pandemic stimulus package before the election. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi told msnbc the two sides are far , School Worker safety funding, and a strategic testing plan. Meanwhile, treasury secretary Steven Mnuchin says democrats dont want to give President Trump something he can brag about in the last weeks of the campaign. Joe biden raked in a record 383 million last month. That broke the mark the campaign set in the month before. In france, president Emmanuel Macron has imposed a curfew in paris and other major cities. That extraordinary step is part of a series of new measures aimed at containing the spread of the coronavirus. Rising infections and france are starting to fill up hospital beds. Soleng lee is now the ceo at carlyle group. He richly set down for his first interview since taking over at the equity giant, discussing why retail money represents huge potential. We will have more of that enterview with the carlyl ceo throughout the day. Global news 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. Gupta. Ika this is bloomberg. I would say at this point, getting something done before the election and executing on that would be difficult, just given where we are and the level of detail, but we are going to try to continue to work through these issues. From our perspective, we could have immediate help to many important parts of the economy now. Jonathan whats changed . Whats new . Apparently, thats news. Steven mnuchin, treasury secretary come away in on fiscal secretary, weighing in on fiscal updates. It has been the same story for the last three months. Just because talks are happening doesnt mean there is any progress. I just dont think there has been enough progress whatsoever. And once again, where is leader mcconnell on all of this . With any deal that has to pass the senate, i have no indication of that for the last months. Tom it is all about politics, and the Tipping Point a number of days ago where it is too close to the election. As we mentioned yesterday and even monday, there has been a shift in the winds. Of that, and our political rhetoric. To quote the president in iowa, ranting against elites who live behind gated walls. They flooded your communities deadlylegal immigration, ms 13 savages, and drugs. Are we going to see what i just quoted in iowa, or are we going to see Something Different . Kevin i think a town hall format has been better suited for both candidates. I dont think that the Trump Campaign views it as a viable strategy to try to blow up another debate or town hall at this particular moment in the race. They clearly have seen the negative repercussions of that. But the biden campaign, do no harm is really their strategy because they are leading. I think really, the president s helps form the that showed up in tony 16. The poll in 2016. Tom the polls are interesting in North Carolina. Can you extrapolate that energy to other battleground states . Kevin yes, and i think you can look at iowa, where theresa greenfield is giving senator joni ernst a run for her money. The president traveling to both iowa and North Carolina this week. The question for senator ernst and senator thom tillis of North Carolina, the republican incumbent, is do you separate yourself from President Trump, or do you link yourself to him and pin your hopes on him . It is interesting to watch senator ernst continue to double down with President Trump, but senator tillis taking a slightly different approach, still with the president , but not afraid to make direct appeals to suburbanites who are voting biden at the top of the ticket. Jonathan every day there is a new poll and a new story, and i think the polls of the last 24 hours got everybodys attention with that outlier quinnipiac poll in georgia. Can you speak to what is going on there . Kevin this is a state that democrats have really wanted to pick up and win for quite some time. So again, if you look at the semblance of there being a potential blue wave, that would bode well for biden should he be able to pick up georgia, but i point . Who knows at this theres a poll every single day. Lisa theres a question about stimulus or fiscal support, whatever you want to call it. Jon and tom talking about how it is off the table ahead of the election. Steve mnuchin putting the nail in the coffin on that one yesterday at the Milken Institute conference. What happens if we dont get a bill in the lameduck session between november 4 and the end of next year and the end of the year, and the beginning of the next . Kevin Speaker Pelosi feels that she will be invigorated with a mandate from the election. She is also looking at lawmakers who could be easily pressured into getting on board with the stimulus. But theres a lot of assumptions. Theres a lot of assumptions to make and what has been an incredibly volatile year in washington with policy. Should biden win, i think you will see another stimulus deal in the First Quarter of next year, but should trump win, i think he has said that he wants more stimulus. I keep going back to the notion that even leader mcconnell wants a couple hundred billion dollars of stimulus. They all agree on that, and i think they are just waiting for more clarity from the electric. From the electorate. Lisa meanwhile, we have 19 days until the election. Can anything change the trajectory . Kevin i am going to say yes. I think youve got another debate, youve got town halls, youve got a ton of public appearances. 2016, i am not going to predict anything. But i do think it will all come down to can the Trump Coalition really motivate voters to get to the polls. There is a palpable anxiety amongst democrats that i speak with, and essentially, what they are saying is they lived through 2016, where they all thought they had it in the bag, and they obviously didnt get the outcome. Tom kevin, you have been great on this. The New York Times comparing now to 2016, it has been a really significant change. I want to know who is advising the president. Is this mr. Kushner or mrs. Kushner . He seems so alone when i look at the quotes in video or in print. It seems like he is almost doing it ad hoc. Kevin i dont think hes alone. Like he is not surrounded by anybody . No, hes not alone. Lisa look at that. Kevin pushing back. [laughter] kevin im doing it politely, right . This is bloomberg, right . Look, i think hes getting advice from ivanka, from jared, and i think he really does have the president s ear. Didd really Giuliani Rudy giuliani assists the president with that article in the New York Post . Kevin yes, and that was my big take away, to see the alignment of steve bannon and rudy giuliani. Tom that is going to get the suburban voter, steve bannon and mayor giuliani . , you only have another minute. Dont worry. Kevin i think in covering the Trump Campaign, some of the alignments in the inner circle, it is fascinating to watch that shift, and there is a clear relationship that has developed between steve and rudy giuliani. Steve bannon and rudy giuliani. We will see how that develops. Tom this is phenomenal. Jon, you have an inner orbit, dont you . [laughter] kevin mi inner orbit am i inner orbit . Tom yes. Kevin thank you. Appreciate it. Jonathan kevin, thank you. Dont know if you will be back tomorrow. [laughter] this is bloomberg. We are now fully in this reflationary reopening stage of the economy. Half the economy is going to have come back. The other half will not have come back, cant come back. We have never had these trajectories. The failure of both monetary and fiscal policy is that the money isnt getting to the right people. The fed is very concerned about the outlook. This is bloomberg surveillance with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. Good morning, everyone. Jonathan ferro, lisa abramowicz,
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