Thankorgie about you for joining us. Worryingld we start about the amount of debt we are generating and the impact it will have on the economy longerterm . First, thank you for having me. The worries about debt levels going up are not for now. For now, the biggest worry is we do not do enough to support the economy until we have a durable exit from the health crisis. With Interest Rates being record and government can borrow inject hopefully not only a recovery, but a more potent, higher productivity based growth so they can repay the debt they are acquiring now. Case for lowhe Income Countries already in distress. Importanty it is so we make sure they are provided with relief and they are supported with grants and concessional financing, a big theme for our annual meeting spirit for our annual meetings. Francine what is the biggest risk to your outlook . You say the recovery will be uneven, but you have increased your projection . Kristalina the situation today is less dire than it was a couple of months ago, but dire nonetheless. We are projecting 4. 4 . As we all know, the big problem we face is we are not out of the woods of the pandemic yet. Until that happens, until we have a durable exit, we have to be concerned whether there is sufficient support for firms and workers so we do not keep a wall and asive bankruptcies massive increase in unemployment. This is my biggest worry. Longerterm, we are very the starring the crisis is bringing. There are sections of the economy very seriously impacted. Low skilled workers, women, young people. They are hit hardest. How we make sure that inequality does not expand dramatically as a result of this crisis with the Digital Economy and those who can work theyre doing well and the rest of the economy doing poorly. That requires sound policy right nowand making to prevent this scarring. Kristalina if we do francine if we do not have a covid19 vaccine in 2021, will it be another last year for the World Economy . Kristalina if it does have a vaccine but we sustain report at the level we have had during 2020, there will be recovery. This recovery is not going to be as potent as we need it to be. What do we project for next year . This will not bring us to the prepandemic, to the 2019 levels. In fact, we are projecting by 2025, we will have lost 28 trillion as a result of this change in trajectory because of the pandemic. Uncertain, recovery not enough to bring the vibrancy to our economy until we get vaccines or treatments so we can exit the crisis. Forecast in the World Economic outlook are on the premise there will be a peaceful transition of power post u. S. Election. Are you confident that is what will happen . Kristalina we are confident the al space,ates has fisc and has a welldefined monetary policy. We saw it in this previous month. It worked really well for the u. S. This is why we are seeing an improvement in our projections for the u. S. Economy with a very positive spillover on the rest of the world. We see this policy continuation to be something that the u. S. Can afford. What happens if theres not a peaceful transition of power . Kristalina as you said, it is not in our baseline scenario. Projecty we do different scenarios, but this is not in our baseline scenario. Are youna francine worried about the resilience of banks in this covid era . Kristalina what we see is quite remarkable. We were hit by a financial crisis, and then we regulated wereay out of risks that the reason we got in this crisis to begin with. The Financial System is strong and sound. We have stress tested it and it looks like we are in a good place. However, two things to worry about. Thefirst is part of Financial System, the nonbanking financial institutions, they are not as regulated, not as supervised. There is tail risk associated with them. To be 220his risk billion. We cannot take Financial Stability for granted. Are to notrds, if we retain our focus on the real economy, that we do not allow like atcies to hit us fast moving train. If we are careful about it, then we can be relatively comfortable about Financial Stability. This is why my message, francine, i am sure you hear it and your listeners hear it loud and clear. Do not withdraw support prematurely. Are we too optimistic on the Growth Outlook for china . They are an exporting company and risks depend on how the rest of the world are doing. Kristalina what we see is a recovery in china that surprised us on the upside. Driven by two things. One, successful containment of the pandemic. Two, a primarily manufacturing driven growth in the economy. Our message is for the next year, for the year after, we see manufacturing recovering much faster than services, and if we do not have a vaccine, contactdependent part of the economy is going to suffer. Recoveredanufacturing , exports recovered. se positive for the world demand from china for commodities has gone up, which has boosted commodity prices. Many countries, commodity exporters have breathing space as a result. The service part of the economy is still weaker in china, and this is what is Still Holding full recovery. We project for next year growth in china to beat 8. 8 . This is quite significant. It would help china but it would help asia and the rest of the world. Francine thank you so much. That was kristalina georgieva, the imf director. I will send it back to you in new york. Alix now we would write now we would like to bring in kid jukes who joins us from london. Kit, when you heard the head of the imf talking about the u. S. Fiscal space is welldefined and urging governments to not withdraw space prematurely, how do you take that plea into the reality of the u. S. President ial election and what the market is pricing in . Kit i think the market has been quite sanguine about the difficulty getting a deal agreed before the election. I think assuming there is going to be a deal after the election. If not now, then possibly something that works later. I think the difficulty will be if either side wins a clean sweep in the election and gets free reign. There are places in the world i worry about the ability to keep fiscal support going for long enough. The u. S. Is not at the top of that list by any stretch of the imagination. I think jay powell standing in his quarter his corner calling for it, the imf is calling for it. I suspect ones the immediate election politics is out of the way everybody gets the joke and it will be forthcoming. Why the presidency bad for the dollar . Kit bad because it is not the Trump Presidency but it is less competent in terms of its approach to trade, that is a positive. A biden presidency is more likely to have more household friendly fiscal policies, less business friendly fiscal policies. One switch at the margin on more likely to help demand, not as friendly forgetting capital to flow into the u. S. Financial system. I think the biggest piece of it is President Trump has been good for the dollar. Not always in a way that is positive at a global level, but he has been good for the dollar. A President Biden would not be the same. Alix we do want to take you to President Trump, delivering remarks to the Economic Club of new york from the rose garden. Kit juckes, stay tight with us. Lets listen to the president. President trump Economic Clubs of chicago, florida, pittsburgh, sheboygan, and washington, d. C. I know so many people that are proud members and they are great people. It is a great honor to be with you, especially in this strange year with what we have to do communication wise, to be doing it is quite nice. It is a nice way to do it. The choice facing america is simple. The choice between historic prosperity under my proamerican policies, or crippling poverty and a steep depression under the radical left. That is what you will have is a depression. I will deliver optimism, opportunity, growth. They will deliver pessimism, stagnation, decline, and high taxes. It is a choice between a socialist nightmare and the american dream. Under my leadership, we will have a safe and effective vaccine before the end of the year. We will swiftly defeat the china virus, end the pandemic, bring back our critical supply chains, and lift our economy to unprecedented new heights. If the left gains power they will shut down the economy, close our schools, delay the vaccine, prolong the pandemic, and impose the most extreme policies in the history of our country. Lets review the record. When i joined you in person last year our nation was enjoying the greatest economy in history. There was nothing like that. This was a stark contrast to the prior administration, which delivered the weakest recovery since the great depression. It was weak and it was sad. In my first three years, real incomes for the typical family increased 6,000, more than five times the danes during the entire previous administration. Think of that. Five times the gains. Grewe for black americans nine times more under my leadership than during the eight years before i took office. Their policies punish American Workers among my policies promote American Workers. At the end of the last administration, the Congressional Budget Office predicted fewer than 2 million jobs would be created. Alix it looks like we might be having some technical difficulties with the need. That was president with the feed. That was President Trump speaking to the Economic Club of new york, sounding more like a campaign speech. We will get you a q a and about half an hour. Kit juckes of socgen is still with us. We were just talking about how we were looking a weaker dollar with a biden presidency. What currency has the most to rerate on that. Where will we see the most upside . Piece,think the big whoever is the next president of the united states, is that the ripped the big advantage from the u. S. Had with high Interest Rates. By engaging fiscal policy the way we did and having to cut rates so dramatically as a result of the pandemic, the reasons for the dollar to be overvalued are taken out. The countries that are left high and dry come in other words forced to have stronger currencies come in the first instance are ones that cannot get real Interest Rates down, ones that cannot push up Inflation Expectations and ones that have zero room to cut rates. People like the swiss, people like the European Central bank, like the euro zone, like japan and places like sweden and even norway, these are the ones winning initially. That continues over the course of the coming months, with that Group Continuing to do well. The zero rate countries benefit when everybody gets zero rates. Apart from the few who just push below. The longer period of dollar weakness i would see over the coming years is the Positive Side of it, which is what happens when people get offered better Investment Opportunities overseas, and when emergingmarket start to recover. We were listening to the imf view about vaccines and what the lack of them does to growth potential. Nothing will unlock an emergingmarket rally like a vaccine in terms of the money wanting to flow, looking for opportunity. That is some way down the road now. At the moment i am relatively defensive in our view that the dollar will go down because the advantage the u. S. Had was much higher real Interest Rates than some of the other developed economies and it has been ripped away quickly. That is a good thing. Of other countries comes from the ones that have the most upside in growth once we can get the Global Economy moving properly. Guy can i include the euro zone within that . What gets us to 130 . 125 just onget to the negative side of the euro being stronger than the ecb one sent because europe has an account surplus and cannot get rate significantly lower and is in danger of seeing Inflation Expectations fall while they rise in the united states. That is a problem. By the time it gets to 1. 30 it has to be a more positive story about Global Economic activity and trade picking up that happens later, and i will be glad when it does. We will make most of the way drag by reversing the big from its only monetary policy. Cane is no fiscal policy we help the approach we have had from european policymakers. Alix what happens if it does not come through . It is not a done deal. We talked about that earlier in terms of the Recovery Fund. I wonder what the headwinds are, particularly when you wrap in brexit come into view see some kind of krach app, how that will affect the european economy as well as the u. K. Economy . Kit whether there is a Recovery Fund or not, we have easier fiscal policy in europe than we have had before. Germany has easy fiscal policy. The Recovery Fund will mean a grown up approach, or a step in the direction of a grown up approach to fiscal policy and would be a good thing. Will go back to suffering from concerns about its longterm viability if we get back if we make no progress at all. That would take a fair amount of political incompetence, that does not mean it is impossible. We have had most of these in fiscal policy most of the ease of fiscal policy in europe and the massive fall in real Interest Rates. One reason for thinking i would not want to bet upwards on the euro from where we are, markets are convinced we would get a brexit deal. The markets seem to be confident we can keep kicking the can down the road for a long time on brexit. Sterling is not falling. Exit, i get a no deal suspect the pound and the euro will go down in the short run. We still have uncertainty around a bunch of issues with u. S. Elections. The very near term is more uncertain. Next year looks better. Guy can i come back to the issue of the dollar. We got the call wrong going into the last election on what trump would deliver for financial markets. Im always slightly concerned about a consensus trade one way or the other. This time it is the dollar goes down. If joe biden delivers with a Senate Behind him, massive fiscal stimulus into the u. S. Economy and that has a positive effect, and we get growth coming out of the u. S. Economy and the curve starts to steepen as the market prices may be some intentional inflation in the united states, why with a market not reward that . Why would money not flow towards an economy that is potentially going to deliver more growth than we have priced in now . Kit it will have to because most of what a biden presidency the deliver is demand your trade deficit set to widen further. The u. S. Will need money coming in and that process. The big change is the fed has more or less guaranteed we have low nominal rates for a significant level of time, and are happy to see inflation rise if we get fiscal easing into an economy where we can do where we can get demand to push off in a rapid recovery. Then the market is likely only to steepen the curve because it is pushing up Inflation Expectations along the curve. , reals point in time Interest Rate differentials, particularly longterm, will dominate the currency market, as they did when they made the yen strength in. Europe andapanifying we are doing the opposite united states, think we end up with a strong yen, strong euro, weak dollar, until the u. S. Output in a more balanced way. That could come down the pipe further down. It is not impossible. Collectively,ong, with the Trump Presidency, was how successful he would be in getting fiscal policy to operate in an economy where that would allow the fed to be hiking rates when no one else could. Guy we will leave it there. I was appreciate your time. Thank you very much. Kit juckes of socgen. This is bloomberg. Alix i want to update you on stimulus talks in the u. S. Nancy pelosi and Steven Mnuchin reportedly spoke this morning by phone for over an hour. The hope is they will continue to speak. Pelosi said they will speak again tomorrow. On the Bank Earnings calls you could hear how important stimulus was to some of the cfos , bank of america saying we will not reduce reserves because there is so much uncertainty. Stimulus a big part of that. Guy we will also hear from Steve Mnuchin in just a moment at the conference that is very spread out. He will be speaking at that. Maybe we will get hints as to where we are. We keep going back to the same conversation. We are not talking about the senate. That is the pivotal part of this story. You can have mnuchin and nancy pelosi talking to each other, the president pushing for a big deal, but until you get the possibility everybody will be on the same page, including the senate, that it makes it hard to believe anything will get done. In terms of where we sit, we will be hearing from Steven Mnuchin shortly. This is where we sit with european markets as we head towards the end of trading in your. Ftse down, underperforming. We have seen Pound Strength today. That is the reason for that on thecontinent on continent, very flat session. The dax and the cac 40 going sideways. Well come up with details in a moment and talk individual stocks as well. European close is next. This is bloomberg. Guy 30 seconds until the end of regular trading in europe and another sideways session. An incredibly tight range. We are down. 1 for the stoxx 600 through the close. There has been price action in other asset classes. Let me get through those briefly and show you what has been going on. The pound popping. We will talk about brexit in a moment. Trading north of 1. 30 on the cable rate. The growing expectation Boris Johnsons deadline of the 15th will not be honored and talks will continue. We are at year highs in terms of the amount of negative yielding debt we have in the world again today. Germany contracting in that little bit more. Brent catching a bid as well, up 1. 5 as we continue to watch what happens and detail news on what is happening with opec. Ftse down. The pound goes up, ftse goes down. There are also factors in terms of individual stocks. The cac 40 absolutely flat. Emmanuel macron will speak tonight and we will hear more about curfews in france. Watch for price action around that tomorrow. Lets take a look at individual names and europe we have been watching throughout the day. Loreal. New ceo at that stock is up 1 . I think loreal is out with numbers on friday. We will talk with the current ceo. Just eat, the company up a strong 6 . We have seen upgrades to that stock. Barrons development, no percentage change, but the stock having a reasonably positive day. This is a u. K. House builder trading strongly of late. I would caution you to read between the lines on the statement today. Current trading quite strong, but there are elements within that Trading Statement today worth reading, and talking mainly about the demand starting to fade out of the u. K. Housing market. A strong element, one of the few strong elements of the recent Economic Performance out of the u. K. Alix . Alix lets see what ursula von der leyen, eu councile president , and u. K. Prime mr. Boris johnson will hold a phone conversation to discuss brexit. For more on how it could affect companies, the retail sector, we are joined by justin kane, terra firma revised. Justin king. Wonderful to talk to you. Bit our business is ready to crash out if there is a hard brexit . Justin they are not ready for that because frankly you cannot be ready. In the commentary in the last 24 hours about the preparedness of business come into the extent you can prepare for what is known, i think in large part businesses prepared well. You cannot prepare for what is unknown. The nature of a deal if there is one and what that might mean for business. It is very difficult to know what the consequence of no deal will be. We have heard commentary there could be exceedingly long ques of loris at the channel of lorries at the channel. If you take my historic industry, grocery retailing cannot cope with those kind of delays. Only so much you can prepare for. Not what kind of an exit or are you anticipating and preparing for . Justin i personally think there will be a lastminute deal. Is in everyones interest there is one. I view the more aggressive the drumbeats, the more likely it means we are close to a deal and everyone is trying to extract the last answer two out of the deal. I think there will be a deal. Even with a deal, perhaps the thought process at the moment that many have is wrong. This is a change. This transitional period we are in, having left at the end of january, has not felt like any change at all for the vast majority of businesses. Whatever the deal is, there will , and we of paperwork have seen with the recent political arguments over Northern Ireland that whatever the deal is, very likely it will lead to significant complications, both in the irish sea and on the island of ireland. Alix what is the biggest sense of confusion logistically . Will it be how do i get my truck here . Will it be how much of this particular inventory should i load up on now. How do you deal with suppliers . Where is the biggest hole . Istin i think the hole largely around what will be required. There will be a lot more paperwork. In the context of the deal where there are significant tariff ,onsequences, it seems likely indeed that is what most business arts what most businesses are planning for, the paperwork will be a light touch and therell be no motive on other side to do anything other than wave things through. Assuming we do not have any hiccups, that is quite a big assumption. One could imagine a lot more administration. As soon as you get into the space where tariffs are involved , and certainly if you get into the space where there is an agreement, then the paperwork takes on a different hue. It is the basis on which the tariffs will be levied and what you can expect significant friction at the border. The industry does not have the time or the capacity to cope with that friction. Some industries beyond those i am familiar with, if they do not have a supply chain, that affects their ability to manufacture. We have seen in the last day or two a lot of conversation particularly focused on electric vehicles. Alix unfortunately we have to leave it there. We would love to get you back as we move through the brexit turmoil and we get any more clarity. Justin king of terra firma. President trump is answering questions from the Economic Club of new york. He is speaking from the white house rose garden. He was asked a question out of stimulus bills have congress. Lets listen on his response. President trump we had no choice but to put money in. You had to force money in because of the pandemic. We were starting to focus on that deeply. We were making it long term, we were getting ready to pay off interest, getting ready to pay off debt, and a lot of good things were happening. All of the sudden, you are running a country and it is going beautifully coming of the greatest economy in history and you read a position to start thinking about paying off large chunks of debt, that all of a sudden Something Like the pandemic happens, the plague. It is very concerning to me and we will start doing that. I think you will see tremendous growth, and the growth will get it done. We will take care of it. It is very much on my mind as it is yours. It is one of the first questions you always asked me, one of the first questions i talk to you about. We were at the point where we were getting ready to be able to do it and now we will have to wait longer. We will have an economy that will be just as good or better, that will be next year. Thank you. Mr. President , how would taxpayers here and around the country be better off financially with four more years of a Trump Administration . Thingsnt trump the big is taxes are much lower. David can tell you because we talk about this. Many companies have come to this country that would not be here because we cut corporate taxes. We also took middle income taxes and we are going for a big middle income tax cut. They want to raise taxes. They want to raise it on nonsense. The Green New Deal, if you look at the individual points it is insane. Lets take down buildings and build buildings with smaller windows because they are environmentally more efficient. The whole thing is insane. At first i thought it was a political hoax, but they actually want to do it and they will destroy our country. We are low taxes, we will continue to be low taxes, we have low regulation, and i believe strongly in regulation, but not where takes 21 years to get a highway approved. I believe in regulation where takes one year or two years and that is where we have it down. You can have low taxes. One of the things i spoke with farmers, we take it for granted. The estate tax, they caught the death tax, the estate tax on small farms and businesses, we got rid of. There is no tax. They want to put it back on. The democrats want to raise taxes to a level quadruple, basically, but to a level no one has ever seen before. That is bad. What is even worse is they did not want to take all of the money and they want to squander it on the Green New Deal nonsense that was made up by a congressman that has no environmental sense, it is purely political. I cannot believe it is good politically. We will be cutting taxes further , and that includes business taxes and especially middle income taxes. People are saying it. We had a point during this run we had prior to the plate where families were saving 9,000 a year when you add energy over what obama had. That was something. The numbers are a big number. They difference. Final question. Some industries have been hardhit by the pandemic like the cruise industry, the airline industry, the hotel industry, the restaurant industry. When you think those industries will be able to recover and be back where they were before the pandemic . Pres. Trump it is one of the toughest questions. This was a vicious pandemic, a vicious disease, especially if youre are of a certain age. I know people in the cruise industry that were sailing high, they did not have a problem in the world, all of the sudden they are fighting for their lives with hotels and other industries. We are trying to help them. It is going to happen. I think the vaccine will be a big factor. I also think it is rapidly turn with or without. It is robbing the turn. It will get back. We are trying to help and get stimulus money, which i think is very important for certain industries. Certainly the airline business, people are not hopping into airplanes to travel. Then you go to europe and you have to quarantine. Is there anybody in the world who will do that . We are working with other countries. It is all going to come back. This is going away and it will all come back. In the meantime i would like to see the democrats loosen up a little bit. All they want to do is bail out their badly run cities and states. They want bailout money. They do not care about the people. They want bailout money. They want trillions of dollars of bailout money so they can bailout new york, california, all of these states that need more help than that. That is why we will do very well this election in those places. They need more help than that. David, i can tell you those industries were Great Industries and right now they are suffering. It will be much sooner than later. I want to thank david because im looking at the Washington Monument and the lincoln memorial, im sitting here and id and saying i always think of david, i think of david sometimes more than george davidn because sometimes more than George Washington when i look at the Washington Monument. I can promise you nobody is taking it down. Thank you. Thank you, everybody. Thank you so much for giving us a great overview. Cindy and david, thanks to you for your time. Pres. Trump thank you. Great honor. Thank you. I am pleased to announce we have a lot of great speakers. Let me give you a few names. Havee next few weeks, we general h. R. Mcmaster will address the Economic Club in new york alix you are just listening to President Trump at the Economic Club of new york. The Economic Club of new york also has an invitation to joe biden to get remarks but he is not accepted that invitation. What i found interesting is that last part, President Trump saying the democrats have to loosen up and he does want to stimulus to get past. He is trying to get more stimulus money. At the same time, at a conference Steven Mnuchin is also talking about that topic, saying on certain issues stimulus tops are still far part. They are making progress on certain issues but they are still far apart. I do not know where that leaves the stimulus conversation right now. Nancy pelosi and Steven Mnuchin did talk earlier today. We will see. Guy the senate is still far apart. Mitch mcconnell would have to decide on this. Republicans would have to decide on this. Do they go with a bigger number, the kind of number the present is going to be talking about. There are politics at play. That is perfectly understandable with the proximity to the election, and it was interesting that cnn interview conducted last night by wolf blitzer, topping with nancy pelosi, talking about the idea she is Holding Things up, and there seems to be some evidence within the Democratic Party they would like to see a deal done at this point, the essence may be too many people are suffering and not getting what they need. If her that talked about throughout the day. Lets check back in and show you what happened with european equities. A relatively tight session. The london market looks like an outlier in terms of what we saw. In terms of the Broader Market story, the london market was affected by the pound, but in the Broader Market story we did see a very tight session. The dax up. 1 . The cac 40 down. 1 . Utilities did well in europe. We also saw the Mining Sector doing relatively well. Health care, some of the financials under pressure, and some of the Retail Stocks under a little bit of pressure. That is the final score in europe. Alix speaking of mnuchin and stimulus in the u. S. , Steven Mnuchin also saying getting something done before the election is difficult. I feel like this is an admission that getting anything done ahead of that will be too tough. Bloomberginson, government congressional leadership reporter joins us now. Where are house and Senate Republicans on a stimulus . We talked a lot about trump, mnuchin, and pull oc. We are leaving off Mitch Mcconnell and his group in the senate in the house. Where are they . Tom has handed the reins over to mnuchin trump has into the reins over to mnuchin on this. It is not expected to go anywhere, it is not expected to pass. We did see that nancy pelosi and mnuchin spoke this morning about a potential stimulus deal. I think this is something both sides are under a lot of pressure to deliver before the election. It is something they want to work towards, but negotiations have been going on for months. Unfortunately we do not seem to be any closer to that key pivotal breakthrough. Go emily, where the Senate Mnuchin and pull oc and nancy pelosi striking a deal closer to two than 1 trillion in terms of the final numbers. Without be something Senate Republicans would accept, would mnuchin go along with that . Emily that is a great question. For Mitch Mcconnell to say we are going to see what the white house produces, we are going to see what mnuchin loses what mnuchin produces. You want to be able to sound unified. As you correctly point out, there republican senators that have concerns about passing a big spending bill who are deficit hawks. They do not want to increase the budget. They are strict about this. There is a potential even if an agreement is struck, it is going to have to be sold to a number of Senate Republicans if we actually want to see it passed into law and for americans to benefit from it. What are you hearing about the race for the senate and the tight rope walk a lot of senators have to do to not upset their base, make sure they are and pushing for more money, the same time not stray too far from trump not be too close to trump. I feel like not being too close to trump but being close enough feel like emily i not being too close to trump about being close enough to trump is something senators have perfected, especially from states like colorado which tends to be less red and more blue. The senate map, we knew it would be a difficult year for republicans. We did not expected to be this difficult. The number of races put into play, we have seen South Carolina go from a sure bet to a complete tossup. It is because trumps poll numbers have not been as strong as a lot of republicans were banking on. Number two, democrats have raised a ton of money which shows support and mobilization of their base, number three is a seeicult year all around to a republican running and some of these raises because of the distinct balance you have to strike. You have to appeal to moderate voters, independent voters, but you cannot lose that diehard trump supporting base, otherwise you are done for. Guy does the timing surrounding what is happening with the Supreme Court make it more tricky as well . The kavanaugh hearings caused a lot of controversy and you wonder whether some moderate republican still has concerns about what happened there. I wonder if the hearings with judge Coney Barrett and the moment almost bring those feelings up again, given the fact it has been rushed through in the way that it is. Emily it is interesting. It is probably mobilizing voters on both sides. There are voters who probably feel like obama got cheated out of his Supreme Court candidate when Justice Scalia passed away in 2016, and they are livid this is going through now. Then again you have people who support antiabortion they oppose abortion, rather and theyre excited to see just as amy Coney Barrett go through the process of being nominated to the Supreme Court. It does mobilize on both sides. As far as individual senate races, there is so much going on right now. There is coronavirus, theres the economy, there is health care. There are some voters were court,ed by the supreme but i do not see as much as we did with cavanaugh. Cavanaugh Brett Kavanaugh was unique because of the controversy around him. It was a big deal for Susan Collins when she decided to vote for justice kavanaugh. That is something that has been used by her opponents campaign. At the same time collins has come out and said she opposes this process, and to be honest i do not think there are a ton of senate races where the Supreme Court nominee will play as pivotal a role. It has more to do with the general sense the country has at this point of where we are going and how we are dealing with the coronavirus. Guy we will leave it there. Thanks forever for the input. Emily wilkins of bloomberg government. Headlines from a conversation my friend matt miller has been having with the german finance minister, talking about the fact it is on brexit he is talking about, but it is always good to talk until the last moment, slightly anticipating we could get a lastminute deal. In terms of some of the other headlines, confident that germany has stabilized and finalize the Recovery Fund this moneygermany has enough to support the economy through 2021. Will be playing that interview out as soon as we get it. Bringing more details to that conversation as we have it. This is bloomberg. Guy. Live from london, i am alix steel in new york. Ens is european close bloomberg markets. Lets get back to the big banks reporting this week. Bank of america and wells fargo down more than 3 . Goldman sachs which does very well in fixed income having a better day, up. 1 . Sonali basak has been on the calls parsing all the numbers we have been getting. What is the reading for Morgan Stanley tomorrow and what have we learned thus far . Sonali the Goldman Sachs numbers read very well for Morgan Stanley given they are another big trading business. As of tomorrow, Morgan Stanley will own e trade. The deal has closed. James gorman can multiple businesses. The question is do they take as much share as Goldman Sachs in trading . The jump in fixed income and equities will be important tomorrow. Guy what about Asset Management . Sonali Asset Management, but they do not own eaton vance yet. Goldman sachs, because they are making those Equity Investments those proprietary investments are proprietary to Goldman Sachs. Morgan stanley does not have to lean on that in a big way. Guy in terms of what the longterm trajectory is one of the articles i read this morning talked about this is a time when we are working the bigs. A bunch of factors are coming together which means you should probably ignore what is happening, look ahead to next year. Is that how analysts are looking at this . Credit you know the losses will go well into next year. The uncertain economy is making everyone nervous. You see steep declines in the consumer business and even the strongest banks at j. P. Morgan. Citigroup also had a steep decline. We will see what is to come. Alix thanks a lot. Busy week for you. Power,p on balance of david westin. Not miss that. More tops on stimulus. This is bloomberg. More talks on stimulus. This is bloomberg. So youre a small business, or a big one. You were thriving, but then. Oh. Ah. Okay. Plan, pivot. How do you bounce back . You dont, you bounce forward, with serious and reliable internet. Powered by the largest gig Speed Network in america. But is it secure . Sure its secure. And even if the power goes down, your connection doesnt. So how do i do this . You dont do this. We do this, together. Bounce forward, with comcast business. David from bloombergs World Headquarters in new york to our tv and radio audiences worldwide, i am david westin. Welcome to balance of power, where the world of politics meets the world of business. President trump has been speaking today at the Economic Club of new york, at least virtually. He had a lot to say about the plans he has for the economy. One of the things he addressed is the need for stimulus, saying we needed at least for certain targeted Industries Committee wishes the democrats would loosen up. To talk about the state of the u. S. Economy, we welcome michael gapen, barclays chief u. S. Economist. Give is your sense of where the u. S. Economy is and how badly do we need fiscal stimulus. I will tell you, im not sure we are getting it. Michael thank you for having me on. Always good to be with you. I think getting stimulus ahead of the election as a virtual nonstarter. It does not seem like it is going to happen. Where we are in the u. S. Is the economy is slowing. Signs of deceleration are clear. Most of us expected that growth would be slowi