Bonds elsewhere in the world. Thechinese yuan weaker than dollar after the pboc trying to rein it in. Lets go back to that stimulus stalemate we have been talking about. Remaining deadlock in washington, with President Trump and House Speaker nancy pelosi blaming each other over the lack of progress. The president has sent shifting signals on the amount of stimulus he wants. Pres. Trump republicans want to do it. We are having a hard time with nancy pelosi. She thinks she can influence the election. I think they are hurting themselves by not doing it. Kailey joining us now is kevin cirilli, bloomberg chief washington correspondent. What are the odds we are going to get a deal before the election, and if we do get one, what are the odds that it can actually pass the senate . Kevin in terms of the reporting i have done, i think there is a high likelihood there will be a deal by the end of the calendar year. Whether or not it happens before election day, that is a large unknown. To be candid, i think the november 3 deadline is a bit artificial in the conversations that i have with both sides of the aisle. Senate Majority Leader Mitch Mcconnell really signaling that there is not much more he can do in order to bring on board republicans in blue red states. They have a lot of concerns about wasteful government spending, and especially bailing out states that they feel they should not be on the hook for. Counter do that, speaker of the house nancy says more funds are going to be needed, especially drip ofrip, drip, layoff and furlough news continues to come. It has just been intensely politicized given the proximity to november 3. Is the whitetrated house with Senate Republicans . Is there anything the white house can do to change the narrative, maybe spend some of that unspent ppp money . Kevin to be frank, i think the frustration lies with Speaker Pelosi and democrats, and the centrist democrats have been increasingly pushing back against Speaker Pelosi. They are a bit concerned that she might be beholden to more progressive factions in her party, and terms of the politicization. You look at the airline industries, what is happening with small businesses, and that has just been really perplexing from the center contingency of both republicans and democrats here. There is widespread agreement on a host of different funds, and i am not talking a couple million dollars. I am talking several billion dollars of agreement, and for whatever reason, most likely because of the proximity to the election, they are just not able to get to some type of deal across the finish line because of november 3. Guy were are going to leave it there. Thank, indeed. Great coverage coming up throughout the day as we continue to monitor this meant by minute. Kathryn rooney vera, bulltick head of research and strategy, joining us now. We dont get a deal before the election, does it matter to equity markets . Kathryn i dont think anyone is expecting a deal before the election, and that is the simple fact. It is only 20 some days away, and it is very unlikely. To me, it is when it happens and to what magnitude get the reason i think markets are moving higher this week because it seems with increasing possibility that there is this blue sweep, and that is only positive for one reason, and that reason is fiscal stimulus because that is going to be big and mighty if we get this blue sweep. That is what i think is driving markets. What is taking us to these heights is monetary and fiscal stimuli, and the lack thereof could take us lower. That is what i think is moving markets. Kailey you indicate that the timing isnt as important as the fact that we get a deal, but when does timing become important . If it doesnt come until inauguration day, doesnt that matter . Neel kashkari, the president of the site in minneapolis, spoke earlier this weekend, basically begging for fiscal stimulus. Take a listen to what he had to say. The data is very clear. The strong recovery we saw in june and july has really flattened out. The virus is climbing again around the country, especially here in my region, and minnesota, the dakotas, wisconsin. Yours in consumers not want to take that risk again. Unfortunately, we still have a long way to go in this pandemic, and that means we need continued assistance. Kailey can assistance really wait another three plus months . Kathryn i think that is the right question. Retail sales come out this friday, and we are expecting that to be the sixth consecutive month of expansion. We have to ask ourselves, is this recovery driven by fundamentals and some phenomenal acceleration in job creation, and companies reopening and hiring in great spurts . Or is it due to government transfer payments and government stimuli . I think it is the latter. The bureau of Economic Analysis says that 30 of personal incomes are now derived from personal benefits. That is an eyepopping number, and i think we have to come to terms with the fact that general consensus on the right and on the left is that the government is managing the economy, and it is incumbent upon them to continue to see expansion. I think it does become an issue we over the course of 2021, do not see another fiscal stimulus come to for wishon. Think it is definitely in the works, especially if we get a democratic sweep. I dont think it is a matter of if. I think it is a matter of magnitude. If it is republicans, you get 1. 5 trillion. If it is democrats, you get 3. 5 trillion and higher. Guy where do i need to be positioned right now if i am going to take advantage . How much is already priced in . Kathryn kevin was right, i think there is a lot of bipartisan support in certain areas. First and foremost is infrastructure spending. It has been long in the weight. Everyone has been waiting for it and talking about it, but i do think that industrials and materials are going to outperform, so regardless of who wins, i am telling our investors to be invested in those sectors. Depending upon the results, i think you are going to see some subsectors outperform and some underperform. We have seen this over the course of recent elections. It is not that the market takes a slide because trump wins or biden wins. The sectors we expect to outperform are those that stand to benefit from the green new deal, or some form of green energy stimulus. So we let green energy. You got to start looking at investing there. Industrials, materials. What may not be priced in yet is the inordinate rise in taxes that are going to hit corporate Balance Sheets such as big tech, big oil, private insurance companies, and big banks. That is perhaps not quite internalized yet. Kailey when would that happen . The market seems to have adjusted to the idea of a biden presidency. So much of the focus was about how long it is going to take, who was going to win and how long it was going to figure that out. At what point does the market think we might now seriously need to contend with a biden presidency . Kathryn i think it is Market Neutral to higher because the focus is what has taken us to these highs, and it is the fact that, in my view, we have had stimuli that quadrupled the u. S. Deficit. We have had monetary stimulus that has doubled the Balance Sheet and looks to be moving higher and expanding its Balance Sheet to different asset classes. So that i dont think is going to change, which is going to take the markets higher regardless of who wins. If we get a democratic sweep, we are more than likely going to see a very generous stimulus package which is going to take markets higher. Rolloverif we see this on the Economic Growth variables , regardless of monetary and fiscal stimuli, that is when the market could get spooked. Until then, what we are spending in is defensive sectors that counterbalance the more aggressive risk on portfolio, which is tips, gold, puts, private equity, low correlated assets, and the realization of some earnings some profit on those sectors that appear to outperform. Kailey you mentioned the earnings. We are going to go there next. We are going to take a look at u. S. Earnings season. Jp morgan kicking us off tomorrow. This is bloomberg. Kailey let from new york, and kailey leinz, along with guy johnson in london. Third quarter earnings season is kicking off in the u. S. This week. Abigail doolittle is here with what to watch. Abigail the bad news is this years earnings recession is expected to continue into the third quarter. The good news is it is expected to lessen. Bloomberg intelligence is estimating the earnings have contracted by 22 in the third quarter. However, that is much better than the expected low point of the Second Quarter of down 33 . 2021 is expected to improve in a big way. The First Quarter is expected to surge due to the easy comps of the big earnings recession we had this year. As for the bright spot this upcoming quarter, theres a reason that big tech is called defense. The sector is expected to be down just 1. 6 . Interestingly, right behind it, the three true defense sectors, staples, utilities, and health care all expected to be down less than double digits. On bottom, industrials expected thenntract 62 , discretionary, then financials. As for valuation, it is relatively high. 500forward pe for the s p offt about 22 times, well the trough levels we saw this year when the market dropped. That is, however, the highest pe going all the way back to 2001. Guy thank you indeed. Apologies for the slight pantomime moment there behind you. Lets get back to Kathryn Rooney vera of bulltick. I am hearing some chatter that this earnings season could come in above consensus. What is your expectation . Is so badonsensus that it more than likely is going to surprise on the upside. I think as abigail just mentioned, we were expecting perhaps 30 or 25 on the downside, but corporate guidance hasnt really been there, so that has led to analysts expecting absolutely the worst case scenario. That is normal for markets, to begin the worst when they are left to their own devices and left with no guidance. More likely than not, i would say that corporate earnings have is the bottom, and three q likely not going to be better than expected. And much better than those worst case areas that have been priced in. Kailey if they do beat to the upside, is that going to be a positive catalyst to get rewarded for that . Kathryn i think a lot is already priced in. We are very close to record highs, and that us with the 30 expectation previously. If we beat that a 20 , i dont see that is moving markets markedly higher. I think what is going to be more important Going Forward is that additional stimulus package, both for markets and for the continuation of this consumption story, which has been in very large part driven by stimulus, both from Unemployment Benefits to direct transfer payments. We can debate whether or not that is good and healthy for the economy, but it is what it is, and that would need to continue for this market to move higher. I think from a corporate earnings perspective, what we need to consider is that increase in Corporate Tax rate, how quickly it happens, and how dramatically it is moved higher because that, at the end of the day, will impact the corporate bottom line. Guy where is the wildcard . Where are the surprises going to come from . Kathryn i would be surprised if we do get a contested election at this point. Probably better for the markets would be a decisive victory one way or the other. A contested election would be a very positive thing for gold, but would be decidedly negative for risk assets. But that seems less and less to be the case. We could get a surprise. A surprise for the markets would be a trump reelection. A surprise for the markets would be a debacle because i think that has largely been looked through. I think u. S. Treasury yields moving higher is indicative of the markets pricing in a biden victory, so a surprise would come from anything but. Kailey you mentioned yields moving higher, so that does in a way lead me to banks, which are kicking off reporting season tomorrow. How do you feel about financials right now . Kathryn right now i think it is a mixed bag. I have liked financials for some time simply because they have really pulled up the rear and terms of the market rally. They have been undervalued, under loved, and underpriced, so we have been recommending long positions in banks, and it has done well in recent weeks. I think is to be considered Going Forward is if we have a different change of regime and a less positive Regulatory Framework for the banks, that would be a countervailing wind. If we get a yield curve steepen her, which seems to be what the markets are starting to price in , with higher fiscal stimulus, higher inflation in the pipeline , that would be net positive for banks. In the net, the drivers being but the fed and federal government stimulus, i am still positive banks. I think banks have room to run. I think this week is going to be a positive one from the likes of j. P. Morgan and wells fargo. Guy what is the signaltonoise ratio going to be like within this earnings season . In the previous earnings seasons, Many Companies simply withdrew guidance. They couldnt give investors any clue us to where businesses were going. Is that going to be rectified this time around . Kathryn unlikely, and that is going to weigh on sentiment to some degree, given that with corporate guidance, we couldnt expected to be that clear or concrete going into 2021, given the combination of uncertainties that are still inherent, namely the virus and the lack of a concrete vaccine and a produced and readily available vaccine. I dont think we will have strong corporate guidance Going Forward, although it will be that are than what we have seen, which was a complete vacuum. Kailey one sector that has seen significant resiliency in the face of the pandemic when it comes to earnings is technology, but you have to pay very lofty premiums for that. Is it worth it, or are they too defensive here . Kathryn technology has been the most beautiful sector this year, not just because it has had the best returns, but because it is both cyclical and defensive. This is a sector that has outperformed in down days and up days. That i dont think [no audio] going into the end of 2021 if we do recover from this crisis of confidence and viral pandemic , but i do think that technology on dropoffs, and we have been recommending this when we saw that drop in technology, is an opportunity to accumulate positions, just because we think it is fundamentally based and continues to see that demand from the retail space, which has been really flowing into the markets aggressively of late. Kailey kathrin woerle Kathryn Rooney vera of bulltick, thank you for being with us today. Stick with us. This is bloomberg. Kailey tomorrow, apple is expected to embrace 5g as one of the most significant additions to this years iphones. We will see if consumers have appetite for online consuming with amazons prime day. Ludlow joins us. What should we expect to see . Four newe expecting new oled screens, upgraded cameras. Analysts expect this generation of iphones to spur a cycle of upgrades. You have people that have the older generations that have been waiting for 5g. We had a Marketing Campaign for all of the stakeholders when it comes to 5g networks. We are expect and people to shift and upgrade. Sources have to bloomberg sources have told bloomberg that has a pretty bullish sign of demand, that even in this recessionary environment, there is still demand for its products. If there is one cause for concern, it is that sources have told bloomberg that intestine, the 5g generation of phones u. S. Theorks that in testing, 5g generations of phones on u. S. Networks have not had that great speeds. The iphone generates around 50 of apples revenue, and going into a holiday quarter, it could go up further to around 60 . The timing of this, even though it is later than traditional iphone launches, is a positive going into a busy shopping season. Guy what do you think is going to dominate the newsletter tomorrow, the 5g or the square shape . Have preferences with design. Theres a lot of consumer excitement, but also anxiety around 5g. People are Still Holding onto their iphone 6, iphone 7, iphone 8, despite the minimal upgrades we have seen in recent years. This is the big ticket item that people have been holding onto. The other developments like the screen, the new formfactor of the phone, some people have preference of that, but it is the capabilities that people are waiting on. Kailey another thing we are spending a lot more time on is online shopping. Is the fact that we arent a pandemic does the fact that we are in a pandemic mean that prime day will be a little less exciting . Ed this chart, the spikes are spikes in revenue in the third quarter. You can clearly see that amazon gets a boost. In the fourth quarter, the holiday quarter, it is traditionally amazons busiest. That is when people are spending across the holiday season. Analysts see about 10 billion of topline sales coming from amazon this prime day. What we have seen over the covid period and in the Second Quarter in particular, amazon has been investing in fulfillment, investing in hiring. For some, that is a bullish sign that these revenue gains on the back of that consumer shift to ecommerce is going to carry on through the rest of this year. The difference this years competition. You have the likes of walmart and target, who invested themselves heavily in ecommerce, going all the way back to march. The differentiator for those more traditional brickandmortars is that they can offer Curbside Pickup and instore pickup, something amazon cant. Analysts do see this as being a big quarter for amazon. Guy thank you very much indeed, ed ludlow. How do you feel about those square corners . Kailey it might be a dealbreaker for me. I am just imagining it being all pokey in my pocket. Guy dont want that. What have we got coming up . We are going to speak to michael flint, nobel laureate. This is bloomberg. So youre a small business, or a big one. You were thriving, but then. Oh. Ah. Okay. Plan, pivot. How do you bounce back . You dont, you bounce forward, with serious and reliable internet. Powered by the largest gig Speed Network in america. But is it secure . Sure its secure. And even if the power goes down, your connection doesnt. So how do i do this . You dont do this. We do this, together. Bounce forward, with comcast business. Guy from london, im guy johnson. York. Leinz is in new alix steel has the day off today. This is bloomberg markets. The imf a Virtual Meeting this week imf holding a Virtual Meeting this week. Bloomberg spoke to imf president David Malpass. One notable part of this global recession is the inequality of it. Was a greatre financial panic that hit peoples stock markets and their bond portfolios and so on, but it didnt have as much defect on the developing world. This one is much deeper in the developing world and likely to deepen if there are further shutdowns in the advanced economies. One of the things our numbers show is that the advanced economy, the recession has actually been somewhat less severe than the estimates in june, but for the developing world, the recession has been worse than what was expected in june, excluding china. China is in a bit of a recovery phase, but the other developing countries are still in a worsening recession. N given what you are seeing at the moment, whether the approach you are seeing is what you are seeing in poorer countries. It is hard for us to judge. History will look back and try to assess, but for the poorest covid is ad, if problem, a bigger problem for people is no jobs, and increasingly this problem of Food Shortages and scarcity as their incomes go down. One of the things that hit the developing world so hard is the remittances got cut off from their workers that were working outside of the country. That might be across the border or in one of the advanced economies. They would be sending money back every month to their families, and that got cut off rather suddenly. Another thing is just the activity level of the world for many countries is down 10 from what it was a year ago, and that means Health Problems for children. They are out of school, they are not getting their vaccinations. Malnutrition is on a steep rise. Jonathan lets talk about how you are looking to offset some of the issues in the developing world. The Debt Services suspension is something you have pushed forward. You want to extend it. Can you walk me through how far out you would look to extend that initiative . We would like to see it extended another year, but it is only providing shallow relief. We need to do much more. The reason it is shallow, what this has done is say that the poorest countries in this crisis, given the severity of 1, crisis, starting last may they were able to stop paying their debt service. That means principal and interest. Really, the richer countries plus china, they could stop those payments. The commercial creditors were supposed to join that initiative as well. That means banks and hedge funds, for example. Unfortunately, they didnt. Even the Bilateral Official creditors didnt fully participate. Savings for these countries, we are talking about the poorest countries in the world, they are still paying their debts in some cases. So that i think should be broadened. And also extended through 2021. Kailey that was part of our exclusive interview with World Bank PresidentDavid Malpass. For more, Michael Spence laureate and General AtlanticSenior Advisor joins us now. It is great to have you. David malpass started by talking about the inequality of the recession, but there is also the inequality of the recovery. One subset is doing fairly well. The other is lagging far behind. How wide does that k get . Are we looking at a longerterm, more exaggerated divergence between the haves and havenots . Michael we hope not, but that has certainly been the pattern up till now. Domestically because the sectors that are struggling to come back are the ones where people in the lower part of the Income Distribution who have lost their jobs or have been furloughed and so on, we hope that gets reversed at some point, but at least domestically in a wide range of economies, has been an adverse shock. You can say the same thing about the developing countries. David is right, it has hit the developing countries harder because the Balance Sheets are thinner and more fragile, so their Economic Resilience is lower for much of the population , and their medical capacity is lower, so they may have been facing much starker choices between livelihood on the one hand and controlling the virus on the other. They are being forced to open up the economy with the virus not completely under control. So to mystically and internationally thus far, it has been an adverse distribution, and both the governments and the International Institutions are trying very hard, and i think hopefully succeeding in buffering at least the shock, and maybe even making it less in terms of magnitude. Longerterm, i think it is too soon to tell, but there will be longerterm damage for sure. Guy Boris Johnson, the british Prime Minister, is just on his feet in the house of commons here in the u. K. The debate taking place here and elsewhere is about when you shift from preserving jobs to making the decision that some of those jobs arent going to come back, and allowing the economy to pivot, and allowing those who have lost their jobs to retrain. When do you make that decision . Is it still too early . Michael it is a very good question, and i am not surprised they are debating it. It is a hard question to answer precisely. But if forced to, i would say it is a little too early. We need to make more progress in getting the virus under control before we start letting the economys structural adjustments occur. I think another round of support coming from the treasury in the u. K. And from the United States government and other governments would be a wise move. It is true that you might preserve some jobs that are ultimately going to disappear, and maybe that is a bit of a waste, but i think it is a risk worth taking. Kailey you mention stimulus potentially coming out of the u. S. It is not looking likely that before the president ial election, maybe not even before january. What with the impact be of delaying another package three months . Hard to beain, it is very precise about that. It looks like a fairly large number of jobs in very hard hit sectors, but the airline sector, would be lost. They may not be lost permanently, but that would do some serious damage, and certainly slow down the recovery. I think theres very little question about that. If it looks like it is just a delay, and then we will get some support coming later, then you get a slightly different conclusion. Some of these entities might say weve got the Financial Capacity to stick it out until december. Then you might lose fewer jobs. Think ahe whole, i significant delay surrounded by uncertainty, which is where we are now, about the magnitude and even if we get a package, is a negative, an additional negative shock. Guy on the monetary side of the fence, the tolerance for above average inflation is clear. The question is how do we get to that above average inflation. I am wondering, as labor market economists look at the world right now, what role labor can play in getting inflation higher, getting wages higher. Do you see that happening . How do we allow that reassertion place,r to take particularly where labor has taken such a beating as a result of the virus . It is very hard to see michael it is very hard to see how you get inflationary pressures with a contraction that we have seen, whether it is in the labor market or just by sector. Getink the way you would some inflation would be a set of policies coming from government that say part of our strategy here is to pay people more. It will be controversial. Generate a little inflationary pressure. If their reading of the last 10 years since the great financial crisis is it is not clear that Central Banks operating by themselves have tools that are very effective in generating inflation. Kailey how much tools to the Central Banks have in terms of, if we do not get another fiscal stimulus, what more can the fed do . What more can any Central Banks do in absence of fiscal policy . Policy cany so much influence the everyday american. Michael i agree with that. In the great financial crisis, they were terribly important at the start because we had liquidity problems and damaged assets and so on. We all know that. In this case, as David Malpass said some of the origin of the problems is different. We shut down sectors. People are riskaverse, so they dont go do certain things. Not much a central bank can do about that. Guy i am going to have to cut you off. We really appreciate your time, as ever. Thank you very much. As you can see, Boris Johnson, the british Prime Minister, is now beginning to address the policy that the u. K. Government is taking to begin to deal with the spike in virus cases. Most areas which are already subject to local restrictions will automatically move into the high alert level. As a result of rising infection rates, nottinghamshire, eastern westchester, and others have moved into the high alert level. The very high alert level will apply where transmission rates are rising most rapidly, and where the nhs could soon be under unbearable pressure out further restrictions. In these areas, the government will set a baseline of prohibiting social mixing indoors and in private gardens and closing pubs and bars. We want to create the maximum possible local consensus behind this more severe local action. In each area, we will work with local government leaders on these additional measures which should be taken. This could lead to further restrictions on the hospitality, leisure, entertainment, or personal care sectors. But retail, schools, and universities will remain open. Outhe chancellor has set come of the government will expand its unprecedented economic support to assist those affected by these decisions, extending our job support scheme the wages ofof those in any business that is required to close, and providing those businesses with a cash grant of up to 3000 pounds a month. We will also provide local authorities across england with around one billion pounds of new Financial Support on top of our 3. 6 billion pound fund. High areas, we will give further support to local test and trace and local enforcement. And assistance from the armed forces not for enforcement, but rather to support local services if desired in the local area. Mr. Speaker, i can report that we have been able to reach. Greement with leaders local authorities in the Liverpool City Region will move into the very high alert level from wednesday. In addition to the baseline i , as wellined, this is as pubs and bars, gym sites, Adult Gaming Centers and casinos will also close. I would like to put on record my cooperation in very difficult circumstances. Engagement with other leaders in the northwest, the northeast, and yorkshire is continuing. I know how difficult this is. Iny, like us, like everyone this house, or grappling with very real dilemmas, but we cannot let the nhs fall over when lives are at stake. So let me repeat the offer that we are making to those local authorities. Work with us on these difficult but necessary measures in the areas that are rated very high, and return for more support for local test and trace, more. Unding for local enforcement i believe not to act would be unforgivable, so i hope that rapid progress can be made in the coming days. Covidtions for all three ogle alert levels are being made today. They will be debated and voted on tomorrow before coming into force guy Boris Johnson, the u. K. Prime minister, speaking in the house of commons. If you would like to monitor what Boris Johnson is saying, you can do so on live. Laying out the alert levels and the restrictions required. It looks like areas of the northwest of england around liverpool, certainly within the highest level bracket. We are waiting to find out exactly which bracket london is going to end up finding itself in. Details to follow. We will continue to monitor this. If you would like to do so yourself, you can do so under bloomberg terminal. This is bloomberg. Kailey this is bloomberg markets. Coming up next on the european se, antrim wolf, bruegel ,uropean close, Guntram Wolff bruegel director. This is bloomberg. Lets get a check on the bloomberg first word news, starting in the u. K. A trade deal between the u. K. On the European Union still hanging in the balance. British Prime MinisterBoris Johnson called the leaders of germany and france, and told them the you would have to back down from its hardline position on the politically explosive issue of fisheries. Officials say they are confident johnson will not carry out his threat to walk away if there is no deal inside. The Senate Judiciary committee has begun four days of confirmation hearings for judge amy coney barrett. Senate republicans are bowing to have barrett sitting on the court by election day. Democrats are concerned that she will rule against abortion rights of confirmed is expected. That is your first word news update. Guy lets continue with that subject and those hearings. Here is a timeline we are currently looking at. Kratzublicans, tim greta 10 democrats will vote on whether to advance barretts nomination to the full senate for final consideration, and likely confirmation the following week. Joining us to discuss the timeline is Bloomberg Supreme Court reporter greg stohr. The president saying within the last hour that he would like to see republicans approved barrett and turned to stimulus. Mitch mcconnell is saying that his priority is the Supreme Court. Can the timeline be expedited . Can we see this happening faster . Greg that is going to be pretty difficult. Republicans have the mechanisms to get her on the Supreme Court by election day. That is another goal the president has set because he wants her on the court to resolve any election disputes. In a get done much more quickly than that is going to be a very steep hill. Kailey theres little question at this point that there is going to be confirmation by the senate, but is there anything she could say throughout the course of these hearings that could change that . Greg it is hard to imagine. She is a very intelligent judge. She is very well credentialed. No doubt she has been practicing going through her answers. She has looked at previous nominations. She knows what not to say. The only thing i would add to that is this process has been rushed for everybody, including for her, so she has had less of that practice time then other nominees in the past. It would have to be a really big blunder for her not to get confirmed, but that is one factor that weighs against her. Of the proximity to the election, i am really curious as to whether or not some, including mr. Graham himself, may decide to use this as an election boosting process as well. Lindsey graham is in a really tough reelection fight in south carolina, so he certainly hopes this will springboard him to reelection. About her,king this her qualifications. They see her as a very appealing judge, somebody who will perhaps win some votes for them as well. Democrats are trying to make it about the Affordable Care act, and that is an issue where they do have an electoral advantage if they can make the case that her confirmation will lead to the Affordable Care act being overturned or increase the risk of it because the court is hearing arguments a week after the election. That is something that could help them, and of course, the reality is this hearing is going to get a lot of attention this week, but there are still more weeks until the election. Kailey thank you so much. This is bloomberg. Guy time now for futures in focus. Joining us now, mike mcglone of bloomberg intelligence. We are seeing all kinds of crops pushing higher, and a lot of different people are buying. Give us an idea of why they are buying. It is a politics trade . Is this an inflation trade . What is driving things . Mike i think it is all of the above. Part of it is potential inflation. If we have peaked dollar, it is very likely that soybeans will be bought. It is also politics because the Trump Administration wrote checks to farmers to produce. When i owned a farm, we got checks do not produce. If that goes away, it is a perfect sign for a bit of a bottom of the soybean market, and the bottom we put in soybeans last year was about 10 years. That should be enduring as the peak we put in 2012. Tightening ofis a soybeans, but not necessarily for oil. How high does it go . Mike mike thats the problem. The demand is just not there. I think the key thing to remember about crude oil is it is an enduring bear market. Wti, 40 is the new 60. It is more likely to go to 30 than above 50. Every day that goes by, you can create more of it more costeffectively. Guy what are we going to hear from opec . Mike they have to show definitive signs of cutting back on supply and sustaining that because demand is continuing to lag. Guy that was less than 40 seconds, but we will take it anyway. We appreciate your time. Mcglone,farmer, mike now of bloomberg intelligence. We will get back to details coming out of the u. K. We probably should talk about what is happening with the brexit story as well as we continue to see more talks taking place. Are they were going to result in a deal . All of that coming up. The european close is next. This is bloomberg. Guy live from london, im guy johnson, with kailey leinz in new york. Alix steel has the day off. We are counting you down to the european close here on bloomberg markets. In the u. K. , Boris Johnson announces a threestep lockdown plan. Areas in the north of england will see pubs and restaurants closed. Schools are going to stay open, though. Brexit talks continue. The leaders of the u. K. , france and germany speaking over the weekend, but fish state aid remain unresolved issues ahead of this weekends critical eu summit. And Christine Lagarde answers calls for the government to keep spending big and supporting economies. This is philip lane points to more stimulus potentially only way for the ecb. Lets talk about the impact of what mr. Lane has had to say on the bond markets and elsewhere. European equities are bid today