Tom yesterday was extraordinary. We are still regrouping in new york from the news flow yesterday of transactions and of course of the president of the United States. The number one breaking story here in the zeitgeist of the east coast is that the president appears to be healthy, and the real decision for him today is, does he do a rally tomorrow in one of these key battleground states . That seems to be the topic is topiceck the topic the du jour. Francine lets get to first word news in new york city with ritika gupta. Ritika the white house is once again shifting its position on a stimulus package. Treasury secretary Steven Mnuchin told House Speaker nancy pelosi the administration now once an agreement on a largescale relief bill. Earlier this week, they president pulled negotiators from talks on comprehensive legislation. Officials are keeping up the pressure on washington to renew fiscal support for the economy. Dallas fed president Robert Kaplan sees a Slower Economy without more stimulus. Boston fed president Eric Rosengren says sees increasing the feds asset purchases but that is not as good as other relief packages. Louisiana is bracing for hurricane delta. Storm has picked up strength and is now a category three with wind up to 100 what he must power. It is expected to slam into an area of louisiana still recovering from hurricane laura. Companies are shutting down almost all of the Oil Production gasoline and also output. Theident trump spurned program the 18 billion kovacs initiative is as fires to give low Income Countries the same access to vaccines as wealthier nations. Global news 24 hours a day, on air and at bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more im ritikauntries, gupta. This is bloomberg. Francine . Tom . Tom thanks so much. Equities, bonds, currencies, commodities. A couple of back stories that are important. Futures up 14, dow futures up 98. The story of the week is the vix to 26. 05. 29iss down , junkinese renminbi additions, stronger this morning. Now onn to 6. 71 right the chinese yuan on the screen. 6. 70 63. There bears some watching as well. The others continued disinflation. We are seeing in the data in europe, i look at the swiss 20year with a negative yield of. 274. It indicates continued disinflation pressure in europe. Francine a lot of the focus of course is on that. When you look at the Swiss National bank, it has other concerns regarding the treatment of women in certain cases, and we need to how that make reshape as an be going forward. The mexican peso beating some of the emerging peers in the last three months. There seems to be better news about the stimulus at that is filtering through to europe. 6. 70an see the renminbi at as well. Tom there is lots going on right now. One of them is the Nobel Peace Prize. It is always a political football, and this year it is or the called the w fp, World Food Program. Im not all that up to speed on this, but it is something to honor and something we will look at through the day, the World Food Program come of course come in a time of extraordinary need worldwide. Francine . Francine i think you had read of thornburg Greta Thornburg as well. The world food bram the World Food Program has won the Nobel Peace Prize. Catchers have posted record increases in infections. Italy sitting a six month high. From milan is our Bloomberg Opinion columnist. When you look at the lockdown measures and some of the things we look at country to country, why are infection rates going up so much . Have people relaxed too much, or is it just the nature given that we are going into winter . I think it is the milliondollar question which we have not been able to answer so far, and i think we are struggling with. One is just as the winter is coming, into the autumn, and we are moving into the winter in europe, people are that is helping the outbreak. The other question is schools, which have reopened across the continent very recently, and they may be contributing to spreading the virus. And then many doctors are saying that people were a bit too itaxed in the summer and made the virus spread more easily, spreading more broadly to communities and families, and what we are seeing is a long way of what happened with the european summer. We dont know really yet. Tom you are a great student of this across the continent of europe. What are the best practices of italy that we are not seeing in spain or france . Goodthink italy has made a track with the socalled and tracing system. Making sure that once you identify someone with the virus who is positive to the test, you trace all the contacts of that person and try to really constrain the outbreak. This is something germany has been doing exceptionally well during the first wave, and we keep seeing that italy has picked up for the second wave. Unfortunately the numbers are picking up in italy as well, so someone whether italy was just a bit luckier than other andtries in the second wave is now unfortunately catching up with the likes of spain and france, and the u. K. , which are far ahead in this very sorry race we are seeing. Francine what our politicians worried about now . Theyre worried that it is hitting morale and they worry about their colonies as well. Their economies as well. How different are these conversations from what we heard back in march . I think the concern now is that politicians do not think people are ready, willing, or able to withstand a new lockdown. I have argued before that a lockdown is not really a choice for a politician. If you end up with your hospitals overwhelmed. If you are incapable of not just the Covid Patients but all patients, and then you end up with more draconian measures. But politicians really want to try and avoid it. Also because the economy went through a very difficult phase over the spring, started recovering during the summer. But if we have a new hit, people are wondering how long you can keep, for example, businesses on life support, how long you can extend the furlough schemes for. So a new round of draconian restrictions is going to be extremely hard to withstand. Anyone, is winning, if the tourist war . The images i see particularly on instagram is of an empty europe. Is there someplace actually winning the tourist war in this Natural Disaster . Verynando this is a fascinating question, one which i watched live during the summer. Some restaurants in italy, for example, did exceptionally well, and these are the restaurants catering locals, italians. Italians still went on holiday. Instead of going to turkey or spain or greece, they stayed in italy. Those restaurants which served italian customers had a really good year. Exampletels, which for served american tourists, some Wonderful Hotels at the ml for coast they were completely empty. You saw a total bifurcation of the economies. Some Restaurant Owners have told me this is been the best year in decades. Others were really struggling because they could not sell their rooms that they would normally sell to foreign tourists. So again, this is an example that the covid hit is hitting businesses in a very unequal manner. You so much. Nk it was interesting, when i was in italy back in august, the people that we always see over there were saying it is not that they could not sell rooms, it is that they sold the rooms with italians instead of americans. But americans spent two thirds more than italians in a week. Tom really . The regression equation of that, the first factor, a x, the distance to the nearest gucci store. That is how that two thirds bump goes. A chart. That is tom you go across the square, down across in florence. Guccis garden. When this is all over, you and me. Gucci garden in florence. It will work. Francine we will always talk italian fashion. Also emerging markets. This is bloomberg. Rep. Pelosi we want to help the airline workers. There is legislation we have in the cares act that we hope to continue for the next six months or so. That expired the end of september. We can do that separately, but we cannot do it unless there is a big bill. So it can be part of the big bill or it could be separate from a big bill from a timing standpoint. That was House Speaker nancy pelosi speaking about stimulus negotiations with david westin. The talk about emerging markets, also about dollar and what that means for emerging markets, joining us is to land yen thu lan nguyen. We used to talk about emerging markets, structural reform. We used to talk about countries doing better than others. Now it links back to dollar. What does dollar do between now and 2021 . Well, our expectations is that the dollar would continue to weaken because of several sectors. For one, obviously we hope for the fading of the corona crisis eventually. Probably only by the middle of of ourar, but one expectations is that the dollar should weaken on reduced safe haven flows, but more importantly, we expect the dollar to weaken because of monetary policy. We have seen a large shift in the feds strategy, which would boost inflation in the longerterm, and this is a significant it should way on the u. S. Dollar that it should way on the u. S. Dollar, and at the moment it is not because of the Coronavirus Crisis and the likelihood of inflation overshooting at this point seeming rather low. But it will certainly become a burden for the dollar over the longerterm. Francine what is the emerging market currency that can decouple from dollar . Is there anything that looks attractive at the moment because it is not so much linked to possible dollar weakness . Well, there are a couple in the shortterm that look quite attractive. Mostly in the asian region. We have seen the renminbi doing exceptionally well in the last couple of weeks and months. Obviously because the region seems to be a lot further out when it comes to the economic recovery, and now for example, with respect to china, we have seen after the holiday, for example, that Domestic Travel has picked up significantly, and this is obviously quite encouraging. Shortterm, i would say that asian currencies will be more on the outperforming side. Tom good morning, tom keene in new york. I want to go to renminbi here, which is on a normal chart out two standard deviations, and this morning with a stronger yuan. Do you frame out at commerzbank that we could get a sea change in renminbi where we have roque and its depreciation and that it strengthens out and even begins to do we have that we have broken out and it strengthens out and even begins to strengthen . Thu lan certainly with the moves we have seen recently, the chances of that scenario have increased, but our base case is that this is only a temporary rally that we are seeing. Because it is still in the interest of Chinese Government to have a depreciation trend in the renminbi. If you remember before the corona crisis, the chinese economy was already on a weakening trend because of structural issues . These structural issues, they have not disappeared. So i think the Chinese Government will still try to give the renminbi more toward a weakening trend. Tom this is important. We begin with the idea that it is in some ways a control to constructively manipulate a currency, that it is not truly float, what is pushing against the chinese if they desire a weaker renminbi . I think it is currently the fact that the region is doing extremely well. It seems that china has contain the virus in clear contrast to what we are seeing in europe. In the u. S. , infection rates are picking up again as well. This is more of a shortterm trade that we are seeing. It seems that probably the economic recovery in china and the asian region will be much further ahead, at least in the short term. But as i say, it is the shortterm trade, which makes sense, that medium to longer term, i dont think this will play out, betting on a stronger renminbi. I think there are some investors that see opportunities now, at least for the next quarter or the next two quarters at least. Francine shorter term, what happens with the chinese economy longerterm . If you look at the pitfalls over there, are you worried about defaults, about the middle class not doing as well as people that have more money in china . Yes, i mean, one of the structural issues that the economy has been facing already before the corona crisis was that of high leverage within the economy. There is so much capital within to a, this is leading bubble, and there we see it in the Real Estate Market in china. One of the aims of the Chinese Government has always been to deleverage the economy. Obviously this problem has been strengthened by the corona crisis, obviously because of the cyclical downturn, the central bank, the government, they had increased leverage again. But this is still a medium to longterm issue, already before the corona crisis, as we say, some defaults here and there. Rockedal stability being , and so this is an issue that they would have to tackle once the corona crisis is oval, is over, and therefore we would see more of a tight policy probably in this area. This should way on growth over the medium term. Tom this has been very beneficial with movie renminbi with the renminbi moving. Juckes condition taking strength back to where we were 2019. We are nowhere near the 2018 strength that was so emotional. For President Trump. But nevertheless stronger renminbi today. The Nobel Peace Prize is the World Food Program of the United Nations. This has been a concerted effort by the United Nations since the 1960s. I have had interviews over the year with david dawe, particularly on rice, and just the simple idea of rice as a staple for moche of the world today. For much of the world today. To the United Nations and their World Food Program. No doubt that will be a topic with mohamed elerian. He is in the 9 00 hour. Futures up 13, dow futures up 96. This is bloomberg. Is bloomberg surveillance. Im ritika gupta with the Bloomberg Business flash. There could be a 30 billion takeover in the chipmaker industry. Is ined micro devices talks to buy xilinx. The deal could come as early as next week, a commendation of amd the London Stock Exchange group has agreed to lx the teliana to price more than 5. 1 billion. It needs e. U. Approval for is 27 million purchase of rsa itded by adding boorse teliana. Francine this is what the markets are doing. The focus on the extra stimulus that could come from the u. S. , but they are also looking at a number of infections of covid19 rising in europe. European bonds rising, italys 10 year yield falling to a record low in treasury and treasuries gaining, the dollar retreating. Tom an important interview with the leadership of armenia. The turkish lira, 7. 90 three today. It has been an ugly week for turkish lira. Please stay with us. On Bloomberg Markets today, the close. Esther minard of guggenheim. Mr. Minard of guggenheim. Good morning. President trump i think im going to do a rally on saturday night, if we have enough time to put it together. But we want to do a rally with florida on saturday night read my one sylvania. Might do one in pennsylvania. Its incredible was going on, i feel so good. Sadll say this, its a very thing. Now you have this Debate Commission is a joke. We will see what happens but im not interested im not joe biden, im not can i do a virtual debate, sit behind a computer screen. Tom its an original election. News feeding with speaking with President Trump. Thank you to a great headline team for bringing those headlines. A recovering president of the United States. Election, x of the number of days to a nondebate. Theres only one person to speak to in the chaos, Stephanie Baker pulled the short straw. This is what the president loves, he is healed, he has a message, hes going to do a rally. Is this a 2016 redux . Inphanie he is so behind the polls that he has to stage something to change the nature and get backsation into the debate. The fact that he has refused to participate in this virtual debate, the terms of which biden has agreed to comment he has refused, saying he does not want to do a virtual debate. It looks like abc is going to do a town hall with biden alone. Whether or not trump will change his mind, i think most people think its a risk for him to not participate when he is so behind. It gives democrats the opportunity that he is perhaps too scared to debate, but hes the one who needs it. Hes the one thats behind. To october 15,g if we assume there was a third debate, hes going to have 10 for a debateup that may not be virtual, right . Ncine stephanie rights. The third debate is on october, scheduled to be. That does not give him much time before the election on november 3 to catch up. If you look at the pauls the polls, hes behind in a number of swing state if you believe the polls as they stand. Hes pulling out last minute stops, releasing pressure documents, attacking members of his own cabinet, including attorney general william barr for not prosecuting obama and monitoringllegedly and spying on his Election Campaign in 2016. He is grasping at straws, looking for something that could change the course of this election. Thecine what would change course of the election . Is in a matter of who shows up to vote on november 3 . Remember, at you this time in the 2016 election was the access hollywood tape, which was released. Many thought he would never recover from it. Issuethat, there was the around Hillary Clintons emails, which changed the nature of the debate. He seems to be trying to stage a repeat of that. Already voting, theres a lot more early voting going on now. Its harder to change the course he seems to be , saying theelf coronavirus is not that bad, he got through it, on the same day that a thousand people in the u. S. Died. Tone deaf,me as given what is going on in the country. And as they push ahead with the stimulus talks, why would you stop the chance to provide stimulus to the country right before voters go to the polls . It doesnt make sense. Yet, the Republican Party is sticking with the president . I feel like i have asked you this a handful of times over the last four years. We are so close to the election so maybe it different, are they still supporting the president . Do they want to or do they have no choice . Stephanie of course they are supporting the president , they dont really have a choice. Note that Mitch Mcconnell said yesterday that he has not been to the white house since august 6 because he would not confident in the protocols in protect to protect people from the coronavirus. And they did not match the guidance provided in the senate, which i thought was an extraordinary criticism of the white house and trump about how he has handled the covid pandemic within the white house itself. So you see these moments of departures. But this is no major policy departure. They will push ahead with the confirmation of amy coney barrett. Or attempt to do that before november 3. We will see if these covid cases get in the way. Tom i have eight more questions but no time. Thank you for joining us from florida, speaking to you numerous times. Atures are up 13, 93 on friday. We will look at all the news including the news including business transactions yesterday. With our first word news, we have ritika gupta. The Nobel Peace Prize was awarded the global food project. And on again off again talks for a largescale stimulus bill are back on. Retary mnuchin told perez told nancy pelosi that President Trump wants a comprehensive relief package. Earlier this week the president ended talks and said they would not review them until after the election. President trump says he feels really good and hopes to hold a Campaign Rally in florida on saturday. The white House Doctors giving the goahead for public engagement. It was a week ago today that the president was hospitalized with the coronavirus. Sayshe Justice Department that there is a legal discrimination against white and Asian American africa Asian American applicants in undergraduate admissions at one University Area yale has been race or National Origin yale said they would not abandon their race conscious process. Global news, 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. I am ritika gupta. This is bloomberg. Francine coming up next we will talk turkey and other emerging markets. This is bloomberg. All is getting involved in a conflict with third parties. Turkey have the authorization or green light from nato . Not, then i hope that our colleagues in nato will make their voice heard and put pressure on turkey that they should not get involved. Because their presence here is not helping us. That was the president of armenia speaking to us earlier on. According to new survey, investors are warming up to emerging are emerging markets. Almost half are bullish on em, and are betting on growth. Asia has the most favorable outlook across all assets. Joining us to talk about turkey and emerging markets as our guest. Its good to have you on the program. Ournt to go back to interview with the armenian president. Very clear in saying turkey interfere, asking nato members to look into whats happening. We saw of these tensions another low for the turkish lira. Whats your call on turkish lira three months from now . Be honest our forecast is actually lower than this level. Obviously, turkey is one of the countries that was faster and recovering from the covid shock. Which is creating some increasing credit growth. There are measures being taken for liquidity and consumption tax hikes. So i think there will be an impact on growth, slowing it down, and some balances going into 2021. We will see measures thing taken. You look at geopolitical tension its also turkey and washington in turkey and europe. Will it make a different depending on whos elected on november 3 in the white house . Just published a report a couple of days ago, we are looking at five different scenarios and most of them are focused on the emerging markets and a democratic week could be beneficial when the dust settles, depending on the infrastructure planned. One scenario which could weigh on emerging markets would be a contested outcome with uncertainty. Been dying to talk to you because you are a hugely qualified person to touch upon the political morass of the black sea and these competing forces. I dont want you to give us a political treatise, but i do want you to fold in the political upset, including the states,oup, the united france, and russia, as it touches upon turkish lira. In this model out eight nine, or even attend turkish lira. A 10 turkish lira . On,t as i have said early the world has seen tightening measures from authorities in turkey which will have an impact. , but the macroia balance is strong. We put emerging markets against each other in large economies. We see some geopolitical activity which can be quantified and we try to look more on that. Electricalgo to your engineering background, and a week stone bridge. Does turkey have the ability to defend turkish lira . Does it have that circuitry . Murat a lot of measures have been taken. I think its important, the Economic Program and there has been consumption tax hikes and i think this will moderate credit growth over time and probably have balances going into 2021. Is that steps in the right direction . It would take some for them to work out. Francine how you look at remitted he how you look at , where you see the biggest value . We are very constructive about it. Go 670 at thet to end of the year. Clearly the chinese economy is outperforming. This month of implement which speaks for itself, theres better economic recovery for normalization and a of payments. And expertssurplus are doing well because china has normalized its supply chain early on. This is saying to the rest of the world, the goods that are tourism and also with outflows are usually huge are happening this year. Surplusans there was a but at the same time, substantial inflows because of the inclusion of chinese bonds and equities. Its very constructive actually. Assume that you theres going to be tension between the u. S. No matter who is in the white house, and china , and between europe and china, are we going to see more trade between china and other emerging markets in the region . What does that mean for their currency . Murat that has already been happening. Trend. A longterm emerging markets to two decades ago was 20 . At 23 . S about the same exports to china, if you dial 17 . Early 2000, its now this obviously takes time. The answer to your question is yes. I need to make some money here. What is the burgeoning opportunity in the asian rim murat . Rim . Andma asian murat we think that we will see some index inclusion driven inflows into china. Our colleagues are looking at to have a bit of substantial impulse, next year 12. 5 billion per month. This clearly stands out. I think in asia there are opportunities. And the philippine peso at 48. Thats a different story. Thank you so much for taking those delicate questions on the a and the politics. In theiday, coming United States to a longer weekend for many, we will be here columbus day. Just to let you know. Futures are up 14. Dow futures are up 108 the vix at 28. 04. David westin is on fire. This is going to be a normal interview. Its not. With theer of michigan present governor, who is safe. This is bloomberg this is bloomberg. Morethink the fed can do and we will look at our options. But those are not substitutes for fiscal policy. Right now i would be hesitant to see us doing more in that area, because i dont see the benefits. I could see how it would add fuel to the financial markets, i am more skeptical of how it helps the real economy. Tom the gentleman from dallas. I cannot convey enough the idea of how unusual this conversation is, buried in the news flow of this political season and the business stories we have seen with ibm yesterday and the Morgan Stanley announcement as well, it was a stunning speech by Jerome Powell to the National Association for the Business Economic council. I really have to say, its the federald, reserve discussion of fiscal policy. Francine i would also say that its unprecedented to have a who retracts on a stimulus bill. Tom three times, four times. Francine go ahead. Tom i think the zeitgeist is that we wake up on a friday to a president who is nudging back, yesterday, towards a larger stimulus. He was approving the notion to he was approving secretary mnuchin into niger towards Speaker Pelosi two ge towards Speaker Pelosi. Francine he did say that a bigger minute he did say that a bigger plan was on the table. A star plans to close, 400 storeill be cut a plans to cut. Been spending less on pricey perfumes and leg up and the pandemic has hurt loreal. Buildusk wants to batteries on the site at the austin plant. This will be the Second Vehicle Assembly factory. 6 billion will be returned in 6 billion 6 billion will be returned after a hospital no longer faces a business squeeze from the coronavirus pandemic. Says returninge the money is the socially responsible thing to do. The World Food Program of the United Nations is the winner of the nobel prize, this organization has a heritage back to the 1960s. I did a series of interviews with them a number of years ago during a global rice panic. Was absolutely brilliant not to panic on rice. Rice wood and always will come back. Today,se of you joining we are hearing more from a president recovering and his desire to have rallies this weekend. He has mentioned florida and pennsylvania. We need an update on the state of the american economy. Statement,ious matthew liz that he will join us. Futures are up 14. 26. 02. At modest dollar weakness. Please stay with us. This is bloomberg. So youre a small business, or a big one. You were thriving, but then. Oh. Ah. Okay. Plan, pivot. How do you bounce back . You dont, you bounce forward, with serious and reliable internet. Powered by the largest gig Speed Network in america. But is it secure . Sure its secure. And even if the power goes down, your connection doesnt. So how do i do this . You dont do this. We do this, together. Bounce forward, with comcast business. Morning, there on friday evening, suddenly the remits against the dollar. The United States has refused we chat and the National Security concept. Its election season and we have forgot about china. The futures are up this morning. And theres no debate, the now,dent wants rallies tomorrow, saturday, in florida and pennsylvania. Good morning. This is bloomberg surveillance. The news flow was quite extraordinary this morning. Free and pubbrexit free of the discussion yakking done. Pub free of the discretion of the discussed tom
comparemela.com © 2020. All Rights Reserved.