Stocks . Tom i agree that it is secondary or tertiary but at the margin was the list in the markets today with presumed stimulus, government to the rescue and all of that. I wonder if it has a good feeling to it versus what we have seen over the last two weeks. Francine do the markets move on just a good feeling . Paul do you remember . Ts a good feeling to know im thinking 1970 one. Francine its a good morning when you sing to me on air. Lets get straight to the bloomberg first word news, heres riddick a group that gupta. gerard the first question had to do with the coronavirus after the squared off they squared off. Thetor harris you respect American People when you tell the truth and have the courage to be a leader and speak of the things that you may not want people to hear but they need to hear so they can protect themselves. Pence when i look at their planet talks about advancing testing, grading pbe, developing a vaccine, it looks like plagiarism. Which is something joe biden knows little bit about. Set President Trump put the health of the American People first. First. President trump called his case of the coronavirus a blessing from god and credited the antibody treatment for his recovery. He plans to authorize measures used on the treatment and provided free to americans. Drug administration plans to impose more sanctions on iran hits the Financial Sector as soon as today. The goal is to choke off the economy. The u. S. Could blacklist as many as 14 iranian banks. Hurricane delta is now taking aim at louisiana. The storm moved into cancun, knocking out power and triggering a dangerous storm surge. This weakens to a category one hurricane but is expected to strengthen before coming to shore tomorrow. Global news, 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. Thank you. Equities and bonds now. We look at the bloomberg terminal, the vix is under 28. To me thats important. 27. 95 on the volatility index. We are in that new regime of higher yields, claims have hit 30 today. A 40. 46 on oil. And in the lira watch dont think this is a backstory. , 7. 94. Lira unravels you tell me where the point is for mr. Everyone mr. Erdogan come i cant figure this out. Erdogan, i can figure this out. Francine european stocks are rising in touch, thats led by travel companies. We are expecting restrictions and friends to be announced today. Theres no urgency to the market like we have seen, maybe a wait and see moment. The Vice President ial debate took a more moderate tone. We still see sharp exchanges among key topics like candidates Kamala Harris and mike pence sparring over the handling of covid. Senator harris we need to save our country, this administration has forfeited their right to reelection. Vice president pence and i look at their plan, it looks a little bit like plagiarism. Francine we are delighted to talk politics with greg valliere. Thank you for joining us. Shy trumpus about the voter, are they showing up in the polls . Be a belief that there is a myth. Greg its entirely possible that all takers are not reflecting that. Its entirely possible that the lead could be wider with biden. Francine there seems to be so ,any people decided already does anything in debates or even the white house being engulfed by covid make a difference . Greg i thought last night was kind of interesting. ,t did not move the needle much but both candidates made their closing arguments for the next month. On the democrats side its about health care and preexisting conditions, the handling of covid. On the republican side its that prescriptions are too radical. Those of the articles the argument we will hear. Tom i went to the source in salt lake city, they covered a republican town out in utah, and they said it was mostly civil and lacked substance. The game change for me is that its focuses on the president S Performance in the debate and what we saw from mr. Giuliani yesterday on bloomberg surveillance. With the civil discourse that we saw last night, is there demand by the public to shift from the venom that we have been hearing, or not . Greg i think so i thats why one of the reasons last night was civil. But the republicans will run out of time. A lot of people have voted and made out of made up their minds. Hours, the move in the polls has been remarkable. Tom you have been such a student of this and of such a value this morning. What fascinates me is that the president , in his bubble, we all have a bubble, theres a tom keene bubble and a Francine Lacqua bubble. We are all in our bubbles. When he got out of it in the first debate it was painful for all. Do you anticipate that if there is a second debate october 15 . Greg i think the same thing will happen, i dont think he learned any lessons. He could have come out of his illness chasten like boris johnson, empathetic, and he didnt. Trump wasted a golden opportunity. Bit abouttalk to me a swing states. Are they changing . Is it different from 2016 . There are similarities to 2016, the same as Hillary Clintons lead. But the swing states have changed, especially pennsylvania. Michigan would be the second to watch. Both of those states it looks like biden is pulling away. Thats a big deal. Me,cine it seems to correct me if im wrong, the female voters, especially in suburbia, are the key to winning or losing this election. What do they care about, and if its health care, the fact that present the president and those around him have covid, does make them vote for someone else . Greg its a huge issue, the Supreme Court, preexisting conditions, joe biden has higher numbers with women then chiller it then hillary clinton. If biden wins it will be the female vote. Tom im stunned by florida. I get pennsylvania and the battleground state. 4545. , has the Vice President spent enough time in florida . Particularly going after hispanic votes . Greg no, thats a big flaw starting with the convention, they ignore hispanics. Tom why . Greg i can figure that out. That said, they dont have to win florida. Biden can win without florida. The big story with florida and arizona with Senior Citizens is that older people are really angry at trumps handling of covid. Tom whats your plan for the next 25 days, you write an immediate note every morning. Maybe you will write into the weekend on sunday talk shows. Whats the plan or prognosis after the first tuesday of november . Greg the subject has to change for republicans to have any chance. I think we might get something on stimulus, not a big bill but something that trump could call you when a win. In a Supreme Court hearing starts next week which could spin to the advantage of the republicans. They need to change the subject. Francine its all well and good to have polls. Who has the most energized base . Lets say that covid becomes more scary for other people and they have not put in their vote by mail. And its raining by november 3, who is voting . Greg trump voters would show up in a hurricane, thats an important factor. Thats why you cannot say its a 100 chance that joe biden ways. I question whether bidens supporters are as enthusiastic as trump supporters. Francine can Kamala Harris energize them . Greg she holds an africanamerican vote and might add half a point to florida, georgia, and North Carolina for she might make a little bit of a difference. She did not hurt herself last night. Tom thank you. Agf, go to there to get his powerhouse morning note, its a required political read. Washe political debate she having all the attendance of mr. Wesson. Weston pelosi with mr. On balance of power doubt messaging stimulus for the airline business. Stay with us, this is bloomberg. Tom bloomberg surveillance. Good morning. In london, i am tom keene in new york. We are down 3 today from record highs on this. The dow could hit a record today. The vix at 27. 92. Lets start out with peter to equities. View what does the economy tell you about earnings season. What does it tell you about the persistency of revenue and the expectations and reset we will have an earnings. Peter i think the concern is that as the economy slows from the postrecession rebound in q3, we will see a significant slowdown in earnings growth. This puts a lot of pressure or lays at the head wings. So 2021 is going to be the year of costcutting. The markets will reward those companies which cut their costs to maintain earnings. More than those that struggled. We will have a fascinating toironment as we look ahead see who will react quickest. How do you correlate the economy and grossed product into a guess on what the equity markets will do . Peter become highly difficult. We saw this plunge in q2 and the equity markets continue to trade up during the summer. At where we are now, i think at the moment this is and the markets are suggesting that the next few months are going to see some static activity in large parts of the world. The gdp rebound may not be particularly strong in the fourth quarter. We could even be looking at a flat number. I think that is what the market is cut is telling us. Peter, how do you look at the election in the u. S. . What is the Market Pricing in . Markets are generally and i think this information is already in the price. But as we get closer to the election we stop seeing the volatility and i think my view is that markets can deal with whatever is thrown at. What they dont want is additional uncertainty. We dont want to situation where the election result is in doubt for days and weeks after the big day. Way, we already have those concerns about covid, and you could see some very dramatic bounces. The trump camp, i think, will probably be positive for markets, more so from more so than biden. But markets can deal with anything its the uncertainty that kills us. Other thing we were trying to figure out, there is a house report on the big tech giants and what they could do to curtail them. But the shares have hardly moved. Is this a danger, is it something you are worried about . Are is that a story for 2021 . Peter i think its a story for 2021. At the moment, governments have so many things to worry about. Tech giants are not high on the list. I think it will come. The u. S. Has a habit of intervening when it comes to antitrust. At tu go back 40 years to i certainly think this is something which will bounce but im not sure its a problem for now. How do you respond to investors being scared stiff coffeecacophony not of noise and investing in the equity market . Peter my view over the course of recent months is mostly the same, where else will you put your money . You could put it under the bed but that will not generate much return. I think you have to be invested and notquity market, particularly because im in equities focused guy. I think its the one place where you will get some decent return. You have to look through the noise and live with that for a while. The 12 month horizon is where we are looking. Tom peter dixon, we will continue. In the equity markets, its a surprise. Its absolutely extraordinary news with the stock market. This would be a considered desire to speak to abby joseph cohen, we will do that with goldman sachs, hugely anticipating that interview. Yes on the equity markets, yes on the stock call, but so much more to discuss. Stay with us, this is bloomberg. Ritika this is bloomberg surveillance, i had the business flash. Facebook is tightening its war on the content involving the u. S. Election. They are banning political ads after voting ends. They are bracing for a contentious election night. J. P. Morgan chase is spending billions to fix the racial wealth gap. The bank will also change how assessmentcutives of diversity is the highest listing on record, falling 11 to little more than 3000 per month. The coronavirus has given renters few reasons to sign leases. Thats your latest. Tom lets go into the obscure data, futures on a 14 futures are 14 on vicks. I want to point out the sealed. This is one of the Great Stories where the equity recovery has negative one point 0 and we come back up 0. 90. We are middle of the ground on the 10 year view of the yield. Is not up toira eight lire per dollar. It was shocking. Seven and now it is 7. 93. Its the agony of erdogans turkey. Francine we should spend more time on turkey. It. E was a study on the stocks are up on the hopes of stimulus in the u. S. Travel companies are leading the gains in europe. We are seeing some rising percentage premarket after President Trumps endorsement. Coming up on daybreak australia, Robert Kaplan joins us. This is bloomberg. The president s trade war with china. He lost it. What ended up happening . Because of a trade war with lost 300,000a manufacturing jobs. Farmers have experienced bankruptcy. Lost the trade war with china . Jill biden never fought it. Joe biden has been a cheerleader for communist china over the last decades. Francine squaring off in the Vice President ial debate, salt lake city. On what theuched elections mean for the stock market, but what does it mean for dollar . So far, that has been a holding pattern. The dollar was picking up ground over the summer. It seems to have lost a little. Seemarkets are waiting to which way the election goes. My guess is, the dollar remains fairly well bid. If you look at alternatives problems areovid getting worse, rather than better. Is falling in the u. S. Likelihood is, over the next few weeks, we will probably see slightly higher. Not,d markets, probably unless you see a huge move. Currency moves will be small. It will not have notable impact on equity sectors. Anything youthere think a Biden Administration would change in terms of extra taxes, breaking up . Is that already priced in . One thing is Corporate Tax issue. Expectedinistration is to go at 28 . That would have implications. The other thing, it may well impact upon markets in a different way. Companiesa suggestion bring back companies to the u. S. To benefit from lower taxes but ended up investing those funds rather than putting them [indiscernible] the equity rally. Obviously, if the situation runs in reverse, you may see equity markets stay put for tax reasons. One,in textbooks, chapter they say markets dont matter. In the vicinity of chapter 23, they say they matter. You straddle this beautifully. What do you make of the wall of money out there given the set of worry . The presumed wall of liquidity available has to change how we analyze. Is there a wall of money . We have been talking about it for years. Sometimes it does not appeal. Individualsd theoretically can borrow huge amount from central bank at zero. They will not do so unless theyre a good investment opportunities. This is not an environment in which people will take speculative positions. Too much uncertainty for that. Where are those opportunities . It is questionable. Seeing it in tech. They are still scoping. Coronavirus has changed the landscape. Positionedwhich are for a more contactless world will be the ones to benefit. Month in years, that is where we will go. Suggests commerzbank liquidating large Asset Industries . Peter i dont think we would say that. If you are an investor looking to bring fresh money into the market, there are better ways to play than the big asset rich areas. Haveig blue stocks survived a lot. As a consequence, you bet against them at your peril. At a time of coronavirus uncertainty, trust companies who have been through downturns. Francine thanks so much. Peter dixon. Ritika the Vice President ial debate had fewer fireworks than the president ial faceoff. They did not interrupt each other as much. Issuesthey battled over including u. S. Relations with china. The president s trade war with china. He lost it. What happened . Because of a socalled trade war, america lost 300,000 manufacturing jobs. Farmers have experienced bankruptcy. Lost the trade war china . Joe biden never fought it. He has been a cheerleader for communist china over the last several decades. Ritika on the coronavirus, mike plan looksbidens like plagiarism. President trump will return to the campaign trail next week, despite still recovering from coronavirus. He is looking at michigan and pennsylvania. He plans to take part in the next debate, october 15, miami. He wants all troops in afghanistan home by christmas. His National Security advisor came out earlier in the day with a less ambitious piece for withdrawal. They intend to cut the number in half, 2100 by early next year. More than half the volume in london is in shares of eu companies, at risk of migrating to the eu. Trading willed result in worse prices. Global news, 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake from bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. This is bloomberg. Consolidation phase started years ago with indices of the London Stock Exchange now set to sail for 4. 5 billion euros. Euronext is not the highest bidder. It is the most politically expedient choice. This is something we need to look at closely. There is not much left to buy after this. Tom interesting to see this. Somewhat of a for sale. Competeg lp constructively each day. David westin just killing it today. Speaker nancy pelosi to wander by. Deborah dingell of michigan, my favorite of the congresswomen of congress, on her battleground state. Futures up 12. This is bloomberg. On day one, joe biden will repeal that tax bill. What he will do with the money is invested in the American People . On day one, joe biden is going to raise your taxes. It is remarkable. Right after a time when we are going through a time, almost 22 million jobs died, we have added back 11. 6 million jobs because we had a president who cut taxes and rolled back regulation. Industry, youuto voted against it. Lets set the record straight. American people deserve to know, senator harris was one of only 10 members of the senate to vote against the usmca. It was a huge win for american automakers. It was a huge win for american farmers, especially dairy in the midwest. Tom i would suggest the most important moment in our political season. Normality with the Vice President and senator. Extraordinary to see the hugely anticipated Vice President ial debate last night, getting remarkable comments on it. The quiet topic. We need to shift to the cacophony madness of brexit. Francine i dont know if it is quiet. Seems like negotiations are stepping up. They could break down within u. K. Will walk from the eu if there is no clear deal next week. The issue over fishing rights appears to be stagnant. Tom every day. We have been talking about fisheries. Talk about the selfimposed october deadline. This is imposed by boris summit of eu leaders by october 15. He wants to see the outlines of possible. It is clear the eu is perfectly prepared to let talks run on until the end of october, possibly november. The december 31 end of the transition period will not change. With that fixed, the time you need to ratify the deal, really does mean you have to get something agreed by the end of october early november. A sense of howus negotiations are going . They seem to be acrimonious. Ed there is a recognition on both sides of where the landing zone might be. Bigbig issues, two obstacles. Level playing field, what state subsidies britain can give out to companies after brexit. What access eu boats will have two u. K. Waters. On state aid, the british are hoping they can move on that, closer and adopt compromise. E. U. Chief barnier, negotiator, pushing the french to back down, other countries to back down from their hardline position; they want to keep the same access to british waters they have enjoyed as members of the eu. Fishing was always going to be the last part of this to fall into place. Frost said yesterday fishing is now the biggest outstanding disagreement. You can see the progress. Whether you get an agreement will depend on a political decision. It will be key for what johnson offers on state aid. Does that satisfy the eu . Barnier canhether get onside with any compromise. Tom fascinating. The late great bernard balin, the historian, dying a few weeks fisheriess folded his into his study of america. What is the United Kingdom geography most affected by the fisheries debate . Ed political geography is important. There are traditional constituencies, southwest, the northeast coast, these are areas working hard by the common fisheries policy. These are areas, in recent elections, turned blue. We talked about johnson breaking the redwall. Witchconstituencies dont vote tory, this is about preserving johnsons majority and keeping those areas backing his party. Francine thank you so much. Evans. Coming up, we talk brexit with the mastercard vice chair. Payments andabout one of the surveys we saw. A lot more people are using their debit cards instead of credit. How did that change . This is bloomberg. Ritika this is bloomberg citibank will pay a 4 million fine and seek the u. S. Governments signoff for major acquisitions. This is due to risk control. The bank has projects underway to improve that. Urging congress to go slowly. Breaking up the Biggest Tech Companies in the u. S. You have to be careful about the remedies. I am for regulation in the general sense. It is great there is not red paint around. There could be unintended consequences. I hope we think deeply about any action. Accusedsubcommittee has amazon, apple, google and facebook of being monopolies. The companies are ready to fight. Tom in this pandemic, we have been worried about the plants behind people. Who has the best book collection . Francine, i will give the award, worldwide, to lorenzo. We were dazzled by his library during his interview. Messages, veryny impressive. [laughter] look. S a [laughter] earlier to the chairman. We talked dividends, banking sector. We started talking about stimulus from government. Europe, in the u. S. And more stimulus needed, fiscal side. Europe is discussing Recovery Fund. Next generation eu, it is called. The agreement is not have finalized. Markets will start to worry. Monetary policy may need to do more in terms of convincing markets everything needed will be done to avoid a depression deflation. Inflation rates in europe are negative. This is worrying. It is the anchoring expectation and the risk of entering a vicious circle, rising again. The discussion is again, does Economic Policy need to do more than what has been done so far . Francine is there anything that can be done to avoid the japanese example of deflationary pressures . Overall, because we were doing quite a lot in terms of stimulus, centralbank action and rebound quicker when we find a vaccine, you see risk of inflation . Move to the european this Recovery Fund has been a game changer. It has stabilized expectations. The risk is it is coming late. The second half of 2021. What needs to be done is take the decision quicker and frontload part of it. The markets are now seeing the risk, most of the majors will come too late; when the recovery is suffering. We need to strengthen the recovery, upfront measures that are needed in this phase to accelerate particular public investments, that creates a Multiplier Effect on the economy and contributes to stimulate private investments. Francine do you worry about negative rates . Longer, it isuch hurting the Financial System . Implicitly, Christine Lagarde has said, hasnt the ecb entered qe . It should have reduced Interest Rate to a lower level. This would have created negative effects. Recognize,ting to beyond shortterm effects, negative rates are producing negative impact on banks, abilityility and to lend. We have to look at monetary regulationprudential and how the combination are creating the environment which enables banks to support the economy. If i look at the combination, negative rates and prudential regulation, in particular, concerning the ban on dividends, which may be correct shortterm but if it remains it creates uncertainty about the willingness for investors to stay in the Financial System, as investors. Of fleeing away from the Financial System. This is not good for the Banking System and the economy real. Tom important interview with lorenzo. Very important for europe. Coming up, our conversation of the day; the state of the equity markets and the linkage to our Financial System. Stay with us. This is bloomberg. So youre a small business, or a big one. You were thriving, but then. Oh. Ah. Okay. Plan, pivot. How do you bounce back . You dont, you bounce forward, with serious and reliable internet. Powered by the largest gig Speed Network in america. But is it secure . Sure its secure. And even if the power goes down, your connection doesnt. So how do i do this . You dont do this. We do this, together. Bounce forward, with comcast business. Tom this morning, stimulus to the rescue. Over secondues bailout for the airlines, all in, 28 billion. The president leaves his kingdom of isolation. He returns to the oval office. Top white house security. Failure inatest debate history. They remind us of a civil, political discourse. Good morning. Bloomberg surveillance from new york and london. Uproare, explain the pub in the u. K. I was going back and forth with Simon Kennedy about this. We talked to edward evans earlier. Theyre going to shut down the pubs at 10 p. M. But they are open at 9 p. M.