Implications for the election and the implication for the leadership . It is also a good thing to look at other leaders and if they tested positive, how they have reacted to it. Also president bolsonaro of brazil. To thisare waking up across america. The determinant here is a oneweek just a show in for every patient, and the tip point for the medical professionals is the bacteriology of pneumonia, and overlaying pneumonia on this terrible virus. The president nowhere near there at this time, and he rests at the white house this morning. Now, verya right simple. We have deteriorated. There is no other way to put it. 57, dell futures 439. A plunge off ashdown futures 439. Dow futures 4. 39. West texas intermediate, oil down 1. 65. Francine, what do you see . Francine markets are a little bit calmer. That could be ratcheted up again with the jobs data. I wanted to show you pound because there is this on brexit. I need to look at gold etfs. We dont look at it very often. Tom but today it matters. Francine investors are weighing trumps diagnosis. There are so many questions and very little answers, which is why the markets are nervous right now. Tom we have so many people to speak to today. Jon ferro is speaking with Lawrence Kudlow on jobs day. That will be a different conversation in the 9 00 hour. Right now we go to the trenches. Ryan Teague Beckwith is the one who has been on the campaign trail with the president , and we are thrilled that he could join us for a brief. Ryan, did you see this coming . The idea that ms. Hicks have the virus and the president got it, the president had the virus, and ms. Hicks got it in the swirl of a relatively massless campaign, someone like you so attached, did you see this coming . Ryan there first thing i would say is just that i think and prayershoughts are with the president and the first lady and that we hope they would recovery and this that they would recover and that this turns out to be a mild case. He certainly has the best medical care there. I think that those of us who have watched the campaign and watched the white house have been concerned that the seen s there have have seemed lax. You dont have to go far to find photographs of members of the white house, members of the. Irst family not Wearing Masks wearing them like where you theirfind photos of children Wearing Masks and jared does not. I want tom i want you to describe duluth. On the road to duluth, clearly a massless as clearly massless asarly well, how exposed was the president at that event . Ryan you can see that they walked to marine one without Wearing Masks in a group. He says he wears masks at those times, and there are times where we do not see what is going on behind the stage. There was that one photo taken with him where he was wearing theythey just dont dont take it seriously. There is even a video of the white house chief of staff mocking people for wearing it. The president has said during the press conferences to take the mask off before you talk to me. He has not worn masks diligently and has mocked the idea of Wearing Masks. But i think that, you know, for the times we dont see it, i dont think you can guess that he was wearing a mask diligently. And the times that we have seen it, he is not wearing a mask. I would imagine a lot of people in the white house right now are possibly exposed. Francine lets talk about what he had coming up in the next two weeks because the president tweeted that he would selfisolate, that he put himself in quarantine. Is he missing crucial campaign pit in swing states . Ryan campaign pitstops in swing states . Part of the presences Campaign Pitch is that he was maintaining a bigger schedule. They mock to the Vice President days that he would not be campaigning. The president said i am working my ass off, that he had multiple rallies scheduled. One that he canceled was due to a coronavirus hotspot and the mayor said please dont come. The next debate is between the Vice President and kamala harris, but there was one the week after that and one the week after that. We dont know how you could. Ossibly hold those in person there is just so much. And the daily activity of being president , which he was using as part of his campaign. There are a lot of things where he was signing an executive order, calling people unexpectedly and saying i have an announcement to make, which this will also complicate. But it is the president , and with this president , i dont know that we can just assume that this means he is going to andaking it quietly resting. This could mean that he spends two weeks tweeting up a storm. We dont know. Tom thank you francine thank you so much, political reporter ryan Teague Beckwith. The president separate age and weight could make it difficult for the president. David navarro, thank you for joining us. This is really a spectacular newsday, with the president tweeting that him and his wife have tested positive for covid19. The president seems to be in a risk group just because of his age and weight. David i would just like to start i personally, as a Public Health doctor, really wish the president and his wife well, and i hope they recover quickly and that they have a really uneventful experience with this virus. That is what i feel about everybody, but i am particularly concerned that World Leaders do not get badly affected by it. , his wife well, and hope hicks as well, i hope she recovers quickly. Give us a sense of is he at risk . Does he have a much higher risk andile because of who he is what he has done so far . David we want everybody to treat this as a dangerous virus. Examplethat people for in my age range, older than 70, with perhaps associated illnesses that they have, they are at higher risk. We know people with an elevated body mass index, based on high risk. So of course we want everyone who is at risk to be particularly careful, and that means most medical practitioners know this now, it means keeping a close watch on all vital signs, but particularly how well the body is being oxygenated. We want to also make absolutely certain that the isolation is complete because we do not want others to get sick as well. Tom i want to dive into this statistics. This 74yearold 244 pound index, who is slightly obese according to the statistics. Without question, the overlay risk is pneumonia. My working statistic is 15 of , but people get pneumonia what percentage, dr. Navarro barro, what is the percentage over 70 . Cand i dont think that we in this situation compare any one individual. A highprofile person with enormously well advanced medical technology to support them, with others in society. It is much better to consider the challenges he is going to face, and those will be potentially, as you described, challenges associated with a stiffening respiratory system, which is less easily able to get oxygen into the blood. So the medical personnel will be constantly looking at how that is working, and the most important thing they will check is how much oxygen is there in the blood. Tom very quickly, just because of time based on your decades of experience with this, should dr. Conley admit the president to walter reed, or could he convalesce at the white house . Ryan i would suggest that this is managed in the residential setting, unless there is any deterioration in the vital signs, particularly the functioning of the respiratory system, but also others as well, and then hospitalization at an early stage would be appropriate. Thank you. Nabarro, is joe biden also at risk, given the proximate he had with the president during the debates . Depends howhat physically close they were during the different parts of the debate. We who were able to observe the proceedings on television do not know what level of physical contact there was. We also do not know at what point the patient was infected, so i cannot comment on that from where i am sitting, what im absolutely sitting that the Contact Tracing processed we have looked into that, and therefore would have assessed whether or not other individuals were at risk. Dr. Nabarro, President Trump is not the first head of state to contract the disease. Boris johnson in the u. K. , president bolsonaro of brazil. What should state protocol look like . The mostorstan important thing is that this could affect any individual, and we happen to know that leaders have been affected, but we also know that a lot of other really poor people have been affected as well. So this virus is dangerous. Everybody is at risk. We must all do everything we can to avoid being caught by the virus and being infected, and we must also make certain that if we are infected do not infect others. Tom dr. Nabarro, we have to leave it there because we are running short of time. Thank you so much for your perspective, particularly there on the medicine forward for the first lady the president. Dr. Nabarro of the world health organization, associated with oxford university. Futures deteriorate, 57. Dow futures 4. 29. We are seeing some movement in the markets. The yield market is prima stable. We will get through that in a bit. Oh, yes, it is jobs day. Ellen zentner will join us later on this morning in the 9 00 hour. This will be a different conversation. Jonathan ferro with Lawrence Kudlow of the white house, again, a different conversation. The president has the covid virus. Tom good morning, everyone. Bloomberg surveillance. Tom keene in new york, Francine Lacqua in london. Its ordinary news flow, not only to battles of brexit between the United Kingdom and the e. U. , but the shock four or five hours ago, the president and the first lady announcing that they have the advisor they have the virus. Completely encompassing all the other news flow. They are resting comfortably at the white house. Part of this is the American Labor economy, the challenges we see in weekly claims and of course the jobs day. Randall kroszner joins us now from chicago booth school. He is wonderful on our financial economics, and that of course means the dynamics of the american system. They kroszner, what is elasticity of our labor economy now . It seems like corporations are finding it very easy to jettison employees. What does that signal about the path forward . Randall certainly we saw this enormous initial spike in the Unemployment Rate, and then with 22 million jobs being shed within the first couple of months. We have gotten back about halfway, about 11 million or 12 million jobs. It showsa lot of a lot of ability to move in and out of the labor market or so than in europe and the u. K. Where i am sitting. Thisthe microeconomics of are always extraordinary. The media spends 110 of their time on the supply function. There is also a demand function for labor. Has it changed . Randall i think in Certain Industries it has. I think the shock of corona is going to have longlasting structural impact on the economy. So i think for a very long time going forward, the transportation sector, the hospitality sector will be smaller. Other sectors have been booming. The tech sectors have been hiring people. This has been different than the typical recession, where when everything turns down, it has been dramatically different across sectors. The president does actually now having covid19 impact the u. S. Economy . Does it open later . Will it make people stayathome order . Will it impact consumption . Randall when Boris Johnson was diagnosed with covid and was hospitalized, i think it did have an impact on peoples behavior because there was a lot of uncertainty on how important is the virus, can anyone get it, or someone else can get it but not me. Then when you see the leader of our country getting it, you start reassessing your chances. My guess is without any formal lockdown, people will be more careful about going out. Francine how will the fed look at this . They areso the fed facing a lot of challenges. All the fiscal uncertainty, and now this at additional uncertainty with the president having covid, and what that might mean for peoples behavior and subsequent responses, as well as how that might affect any further response. What i think they are doing, as they always do, a lot of scenario planning. Looking at different possibilities. They have their estimates of where they think employment will be at the end of the year, and Economic Growth will be, but i think there is a Bigger Picture question of how is the economy going to evolve not just this quarter, but over the next year. I think there are a lot of challenges, and i think he thinks there are a lot of challenges also. Tom what is your estimation of how our system works with nominal rates near the zero bound . Obviously people like you are saying it is not efficacious to go to a negative interest rate. As a former government official, a former governor of the fed, you have a story to tell of confidence in our institutions, but what is your confidence that commercial banking can prosper with the labor economy and with nominal yields set so low . Randall i think that is a really important question. We can learn a little bit from some of the countries like in the u. K. And europe, where Interest Rates have gotten low or in europe have been negative. The banks have been able to can you to make profits and make loans. Obviously they would like rates to be higher, but a lot of the way that they make money is the difference between a longer rate and the shorter rate, the socalled yield curve. That is one of the things that in japan they did with the yield curve control. At zero, the long rate is at zero and the short rate is below that. Principle, they could still be profitable. But there are a lot of uncertainties about how Something Like this would work in the u. S. Because the money markets are so much deeper here than they are in europe or japan. Tom one more question if we could, and this goes to the glide path of the unappointment rate. U 3, the u 4 what does the Unemployment Rate of this nation look like according to the acclaimed Randall Kroszner index . Randall as you said, there are different ways to measure it. Janet had focused on the u6 measure that she focused on when she was chair of the fed. We are seeing right now by traditional metrics an Unemployment Rate in the 8 range, likely to still be around the 8 range with the new report coming out today. What that suggests is a significant increase from where we were, and i think the key is going forward, it is going to be a long slog and slow recovery because of these structural transitions. Its not Something Like the transportation hospitality sectors are just going to come back like that. Making those transitions, making geographical transitions from inner cities to the edges of the cities and to the suburbs, that is going to take time, so i think it will be a tough slog in the labor market. Francine what does inflation look like next year in the u. S. . If my forecast, the fed core cast is a reasonable one, we are not going to get a really if the fed forecast is a reasonable one, we are not going to get a really strong recovery. I haves along the path been describing, i think we will see very little inflation pressure despite the fed buying lots of assets and putting a lot of reserves in the system. Global financial crisis, the Balance Sheet bloated. The Balance Sheet exploded. Randall kroszner, inc. You very much, with the chicago booth school. The data has plead deteriorated. 30ish when i walked in the door, but now we have outdistanced that. The vix nows out, three big figures to a 29. 80 seven. We are finally seeing correlated deterioration in the bond market, really across all of the maturities. The 10year yield is in two basis points on a flight to quality. Lower yield, the higher note price, of. 6 . Even the 30year bond comes in three basis points. Dollar fractionally stronger. Youre seeing it with the stronger sterling, a surprise given the news flow. Francine the one thing we need to look out for is the havens ald, gold etfs set to hit record high as havens are in demand. Im looking at yen, swiss franc. The other thing im looking at is fx volatility. That could rise further. If you look at currency hedging costs, jumping today as they really try and figure out exactly what happens in the u. S. Election, and they now envelop this as you look at the currency out for a month. Investors are finding themselves in need of chasing a market higher as they were pricing in a relatively calm october. That will no longer be the case after the president tweeted that he and his wife tested positive for covid19. Tom oil 36. 90. West texas intermediate is begin to threaten the september levels. There isne mentioned, no other story of the day. The first lady and the president rest at the white house at this time. John conolly, their doctor, is suggesting convalescence may be a word from the 19th century, and of course all of us with a very healthy president , we havingsay, clearly fully his capabilities, we are all brushing up on the 25th amendment, as published on what ill. When a president is we will look at the medicine of the moment. Andrew pekosz of Johns Hopkins university will join us later. It is jobs day. Stay with us. Tom good morning. Worldwide and across the nation. Andpresident has the virus the first lady. Do what we doo best, try to speak to experts. Right now, in the political overlay, kevin cirilli. Do not say this lightly what does the president s day look like . That they are figuring out now. The staff and campaign are in shock that the president and first lady have tested positive for covid19. In terms of the immediate implications of this morning, one option is whether or not americans will hear from trump this morning. Isther option discussed where that will occur. They aredent has said quarantining and following guidelines put forth by cdc officials. We have a statement from the first lady, obviously plans of immediate engagement have been canceled. Spinning at forward, there are many unknowns, including campaign events, campaign travel. It raises questions about the future of the debate. What is important for me is the relationship this president. As with his doctor what is the relationship of trump with the doctor from notre dame . President , first of an, staffers administration are always receiving the best possible care in terms of medical treatment. They will be receiving the best medical care. You mentioned president reagan. Most serious public threat to the office of the president in terms of a sitting president s health that this nation has experienced. The public monitoring every second of the president s health. Know who elseou needs to be tested in terms of who was on the plane, and what about joe biden . Staff,it included senior members of congress, other top officials. Branchly, the executive has been receiving rapid tests, multiple tests according to sources i am talking with. Those rapid tests will be executed today. A lot of people have to get tested today. Francine including joe biden . Do we know anything . They did a facetoface at a debate, i think they were eight feet apart, but there was quite a lot of shouting. Kevin i dont have an answer, but i will get back to you with be reactingns will to this. This. Here is a ballet to coming out of the 19th century is aoodrow wilson, there process and dance. This is a different president with a small group around him. How wouldgroup react tome they will ,he speaker of the house Charles Grassley and others curious of his health given the 25th amendment . Kevin first and foremost, there is an expectation that they be forthcoming with information as it is developed. That includes all of the Health Monitoring for the president of the United States, the first lady and other individuals who have been in close proximity to the people infected. That is divorced from politics. The second point as you raised is there is a countdown to an election, a volatile election. As it relates to that, they will have to communicate to the maybe wouldway that need new channels beyond social media feeds. Voters want to hear from the president , directly from members of the first family. That is going to be a hurdle they have to clear. First, they have to recover. We lived this in the u. K. With Boris Johnson being sick. At the time in the u. K. , there was sympathy towards the prime minister. Could trump benefit in the same way . Everyone is wishing well for members of the first family in washington, d. C. Has extended condolences. We have seen that trickle in through the evening and hours of the early morning. It is too early to tell in terms of i do not have polling data or data to report in terms how this would impact. You correctly bring up how the u. K. Handled this. That is a model the president could follow in terms of how to communicate with the public. Tom thank you. Risk here of someone 74 and 240 four pounds, a body mass index on the edge of obesity is pneumonia, and authority joins us now, andrew pekosz. Wonderful. You have this nailed. That is the microbiology of pneumonia. Pneumonia react with with the virology of the coronavirus . Andrew the president is in a High Risk Group for serious consequences of infection. It is going to be process of monitoring. We want to see how the symptoms progress. When it comes to down the line, there is a turning point where your immune system begins to drive some of the symptoms you feel and it is that point that will be critical to watch. We hope this turns out to be a mild to moderate case, but he has a staff of doctors around him that will be monitoring for changes. Zithromax,e heard of do the effective drugs of pneumonia are they less efficacious with a virus . Andrew yes. Viral and bacterial pneumonia are treated in different ways. The progression of disease and covid19 again, starts with the virus and is driven by your own host immune response. The drugs effective early and covid19 are not effective late and you have to change the throttle process the throat the thought process in how you treat the individuals infected. The u. S. Medical community has learned a tremendous amount about how to take care of covid19 patients over the course of the last six months. Hospitalization rates have been going down, death rates have been going down. Some of that is due to demographic shift in direction. A lot of it is doctors knowing how to treat patients and get better results from severe cases. President does the have a better chance of this disease not turning ugly because of the care he is getting as opposed to the common person on the street . Staff that is a devoted to keeping his health as the number one priority. That is a great advantage. Talk going to have doctors to him on a regular basis over the next few days and everyone hopes the course of infection turns out to be more mild to moderate. We are talking about the president , about his symptoms. The other thing that has to go on is Contact Tracing. This appears to be an event that was localized in a number of different settings where different people were coming together under conditions where the virus could be transmitted. We should remember behind the scenes, Public Health officials intooing to have to go overdrive to find individuals potentially in situations that could have been exposed and get them into testing protocols. This is an important part of our federal government and we need to make sure these people are being tested early so the infection chains can be terminated as well as focusing on caring for the people infected. Francine the u. S. Is divided when it comes to mask wearing, whether it is effective, whether it infringes on civil liberties. Will this change the United States and the regulations around it . Andrew i hope so. You see me with my mask. Masks ands clear that social distancing work to reduce the risk of transmitting sar scov2. On, we getmic wears fatigue for these things. We have to realize there are effective ways we can limit transmission of this virus and we have to double down and devote ourselves to utilizing these things in an effective way. Low point fora you was the back and forth in the debates over the ventilator. I am sure you know the horrific sound of ventilators under distress in any given hospital. If the president deteriorates and goes on a ventilator, we are afraid of those things from february and march of this year. Do we have a better knowledge of use of a ventilator if someone gets pneumonia and has this virus . Andrew it is clear getting on a ventilator is a poor prognosis for a person, but we know there are a number of Different Things we can do instead of putting a person on a ventilator, which has shown a better prognosis in terms of outcome of disease. There are a lot of things that can be done before a ventilator becomes a necessity. All of those things are associated with better outcomes. It. We greatly appreciate i find it extraordinary how our conversation on this medicine is different than it was in february and march. Even dummies like you and me are smarter. Francine in february and march, we knew so little about the disease. We learn every day, thanks to people who are doing deep research. We do not know enough to understand why it hits people badly, but we understand the treatment much better than five or six months ago. Tom it is jobs day. We have good conversation coming up. Mohamed elerian, university of in thege with jon ferro 9 00 hour, along with Lawrence Kudlow. This is bloomberg. Coming up later today, larry kudlow. This is bloomberg. The president and first with the coronavirus. We continue our coverage today. One of the reasons you can start a News Organization and become acclaimed like Matthew Winkler is to figure out where the story is going. The essay needing adjustment off the president s shocked announcement. Matt winkler joins us on covid19. What did you learn about the efficacy of masks . Effective are very and of all of the countries in hadgroup of 20, china has the greatest correlation between containing the virus and getting its economy moving again. You can see that in their economic data. Thea had the virus first at end of 2019. Since then and since the Global Pandemic became what we are familiar with, china has done more than anyone to reduce the rate of growth of covid19 and get its economy back on track. China will be the only economy in the group of 20 that will grow this year. If you look at the economists we thaty, it is the only one will have a Significant Growth and 2022. 2021 francine is it fair to compare how china has handled the virus, given that china can be more forceful with tracking some of their citizens and keeping them at home . Other people for to determine. Our data comes from the Bloomberg School of health. It is data everyone is sharing. China is in that data. We are not doing anything anyone else is doing, we are just looking at the group of countries, what is the correlation between containing the virus and making the economy perform better . It is true countries like south korea are doing well. They will have to wait a little while to get there economy on a track that is comparable to china. Germany, the same thing. There is no question the specialistss your insistedted out, that on mask wearing and Contact Tracing have had stellar results, reducing the growth of covid19. At the same time, their economies have not performed as well as china has. There isrobably right, no question an authoritarian regime that can tell citizens and insist they behave a certain way has an advantage here. Francine are there things we should be learning from china and how to reopen the economy and track and trace . Matt you answered your own question, which is, once china realized it was dealing with a Global Pandemic, it was probably as rigorous as any country we insisting on protocols all of its people had to follow. To that extent, it has succeeded. As you know, a lot of countries, particularly the u. S. , the notion of wearing a mask is tragically enough a political issue, which it should not be. Francine thank you so much for joining us with this important piece. Matt winkler, bloomberg editorinchief, emeritus. It is jobs day. Economists will join us at 7 30 in new york. This is bloomberg. This is bloomberg surveillance. Bank of america will stand by its planned that it will avoid cuts while its biggest rivals have workforce reductions. The bank will continue to manage headcount through attrition. The biggest banks are muscling in on smaller mergers and acquisitions, winning assignments on transactions of 500 Million Dollars or less. In the first five months of the year, the Big Five Banks have more than 9 of the global small and midsized segments. Clear passport for a factory in germany. The plant faces no major hurdles before getting a green light to build electric cars year. Ivists and residents ranging from deforestation to noise pollution. General motors may revise its deal with nikola. There valuation plunged after allegations of deception. The Company Shares are down by more than half since the deal was announced. That is the latest Bloomberg Business flash. Francine this is the data check we will be looking at all day. There is a reversal up to the depths of the losses we saw in markets. Futures are turning lower. The focus is on trump, the fact that he tested positive for coronavirus and some traders are trying to assess what it means for the election. , am looking at treasuries Rising Crude Oil extending losses. Trump is 74, overweight, and male. These factors put him in the high risk category of covid19 patients. The market has a lot of questions, little answers and it is jobs day in the u. S. We will bring you some of the other various things we are looking at, including pound because of brexit negotiations. The other thing i am looking at, if you look at what this means for the election, we are expecting to have an update on what the biden camp is doing, given they had a debate a couple of days before trump tested positive. Oming up, Lawrence Kudlow that is an interview you do not want to miss at 9 30 a. M. In new york. This is bloomberg. So youre a small business, or a big one. You were thriving, but then. Oh. Ah. Okay. Plan, pivot. How do you bounce back . You dont, you bounce forward, with serious and reliable internet. Powered by the largest gig Speed Network in america. But is it secure . Sure its secure. And even if the power goes down, your connection doesnt. So how do i do this . You dont do this. We do this, together. Bounce forward, with comcast business. This is a new economic cycle, the new bull market. This is a bull market that is under some pressure. People dont like the fact that they dont know what their next six months are going to be like. It is possible for unemployment to rise and gdp to grow at the same time. The fed is going to have to be highly accommodative for many years. We are not going to be out of the woods, but things are slowly grinding higher. This is bloomberg surveillance with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. From new york and london, for our audience worldwide, good morning. This is bloomberg surveillance , live on bloomberg tv radio. Negativetures down 46, 1. 35 . Overnight, everything changed. Tom we are going to have coverage through the morning, overlaid with our always important job covers as well job coverage as well