Lets take a quick check of the markets. We started off on a green note but we have been deteriorating ever since. 4 . P 500 down the nasdaq down just six points. This is all to do with crude oil. Down for 4. 5 . I wanted to show the context, 1900 anading toward ounce again. Before the debate tonight, both thehe campaigns released tax returns for people. Joe biden has released his tax returns. We will be going through that. For more on these volatile markets, what we anticipate in the weeks to come, we are joined of manr Van Dooijeweert solutions. What do you make of these markets . What are they trading on now, given we got no new consumer data, a lot of conflicting data out there . Peter there is a lot of uncertainty. From my perspective, and option market participant, the uncertainty feeds through pretty quickly in the market. Whether you are worried about the election, pandemic, Economic Impact, whatever you are worried about, there seems to be a lot of it. Are closer to the highs that they are to the lows, so the downside is significant. Vonnie you are responsible for deciding asset allocation, where to look for value, hedges. What aspects of the market have jumped out to you in the last couple weeks . Our clients are focused on bonds in their portfolios Going Forward. Most investors have relied on bonds to provide some diversification benefit and return during when the equity market is selling off. With yields particularly low right now, they may not be that reliable Going Forward as a risk mitigating device. That is pushing investors to consider alternatives, whether pushing into Options Markets, owning volatility, gold, or the fx markets. The things that we used to do statically in our equity bond portfolios, we may have to do more actively Going Forward. Vonnie like what, for example . Peter it was easy to say that allocation, i 40 expect bonds to protect me from an equity decline. If we see rates start to pick up, we could see gold and other equities fall because they had been supported by fed intervention and language. Maybe implicit yield control. If that is the case and rates go higher, we could see things fall. That diversification benefit from bonds may well reverse and become more of a penalty to portfolios. Then we would see all assets falling simultaneously. You need some kind of a plan for that. Vonnie hedges are providing less value these days. Have you changed your definition of what a hedge is . Peter you are right, the Options Market is very expensive, and i think for a few different reasons. First, the factors we listed before around the uncertainty of the pandemic and the election. Secondarily, some structural changes in what we are used to seeing in supply and demand. We use to see institutions sell a risk premium, Retail Investors buying shortened volatility, which ended spectacularly in 2018. That means there is less supply in the market. Maybe you have options more increasingly to deal with bonds and the bankruptcies we see ahead. It may meanhedging, it is time to sell parts of your portfolio, or use other techniques like usurers or other systematic energies. Vonnie we are seeing a small number of hedge funds outperform the market big. Many of them with the same strategy are really just eeking out again, if at all. Why is that . Peter i wont comment on individual hedge fund strategies, certainly, there are winners and losers in every situation. What we are focused on is helping clients navigate with the risks they have, how to navigate through the more difficult times. What solution they can use, whether hedges, futuresbased implementations, as opposed to why one hedge fund outperforms another. Some have a clear place in a portfolio, so they do well in times of crisis although they may give back some of their gains as the market stabilizes. I am more focused on the utility benefit of these, hedges and otherwise, and how they help investors accomplish their goals. Ofnie does your impression what the market will do change dramatically on who the next president is . Peter it is an interesting debate. We have seen a lot of pieces put up by different investment banks. Farobably would not go as as to opine. A democratic sweep might be worse for the markets followed by stimulus which helps things. That was a comment made by one of the investment banks. Probably the biggest fear in the market is simply no election results. 75 ofre around americans dont expect a result the night of the election. Maybe it is getting overpriced the idea that we will not know anything for a few weeks. The market may just be relieved to have a clear outcome, and then we can move forward. If the outcome is unclear, we have that 2000 election scenario where we have a lot of uncertainty but even more press coverage of that, which would be certainly difficult to deal with. Vonnie thank you, peter Van Dooijeweert. Lets get to Mark Crumpton with first word news. Mark all eyes will be on cleveland, ohio tonight when President Trump and joe biden faceoff off for the first president ial debate. White house aides say the president is preparing for tonight show. Some have encouraged him to adopt a more measured tone. For mr. Bidens part, bloomberg has learned he is preparing to face tough questions about how he would approach china if elected. Meantime, a new poll shows mr. Biden a leading President Trump in the pd key battleground state of pennsylvania. According to the poll, biden has a 55 to 45 lead among likely voters. In 2016, the president won pennsylvania, wisconsin, and michigan by less than 1 each. Secretary of state mike pompeo says relation between the United States and greece are the closest they have ever been. He was in greece where he met with the countrys prime home. Er at his greece has been looking to the United States and the European Union for support in its dispute with neighboring turkey, which it accuses of encroaching on its sovereign rights in the eastern mediterranean. The Tennessee Titans and Minnesota Vikings have suspended in Person Team Activities after three titans players and five staff players members tested positive for covid19. The nfl says both teams will set up practices today following the test results. The titans defeated the vikings on sunday. No vikings players or personnel have tested positive. Titans are scheduled to play the Pittsburgh Steelers on october 4. Global news 24 hours a day, onair, and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. Im Mark Crumpton. This is bloomberg. Vonnie this is bloomberg markets. Im vonnie quinn. Judge Amy Coney Barrett began meeting with republican senators on capitol hill today in the initial steps of the confirmation process that President Trump wants wrapped up before election day. Justuch can be done with 35 days before the president ial election . Jill schneider reports. A President Trump can think 2017 Senate Rule Change for his shot at filling the supreme seat. After democrats blocked a vote to approve his first nominee, neil gorsuch, Majority Leader Mitch Mcconnell invoked the Nuclear Option by calling for a simple majority vote. That allowed republicans to confirm gorsuch and paved the way for trumps second appoint a brett kavanaugh. Foul sitecrying president. In february 2016, president obama tapped marek garlin to fill the late Justice Scalias seat. But because it was an election year, republican senators used to hold confirmation hearings. Democrats a republican should be bound by their own logic this year. Either way, Senate Republicans will move quickly. A report found the nomination process historically takes just under 70 days on average. Most high court do make the final cut, since the Supreme Court establishment, more than 70 have been confirmed. Vonnie the Supreme Court will obviously be one point of questioning into nights debate. We are joined from the venue by kevin cirilli. Got joe bidens taxes released on his website. Clearly, they are being prepared for transparency the tax question, should it come up. I imagine it will along with the Supreme Court. What else is up for debate . Prepolitical jabs already being treated before joe biden even steps on stage with President Trump. The release of his tax returns, no doubt, a response to that New York Times report that has raised questions about the president s paying of taxes over several years. The president s Reelection Campaign saying essentially that it is fake news. Beyond that, they say it presents an opportunity for the president to pivot to something that has been an issue that he is comfortable with, the economy. Pulling ahead of joe biden by Single Digits on the issue of the economy. When it comes to the pandemic, joe biden is significantly ahead. Look or both candidates to really hammer home on both the pandemic for biden, as well as the economy for President Trump. If you look at battleground states, joe biden is emboldened by a new poll that came out earlier this morning in pennsylvania that has him leading President Trump by 10 Percentage Points. After the debate concludes, joe biden will go out on a train door in parts of ohio and pennsylvania, a clear sign that he is looking to make inroads with workingclass voters. Meete will biden look to the bar, beat the bar, or will he try to go all guns blazing tonight . Kevin i put that question to several on joe bidens campaign, and they say they are hoping to draw a more measured contract with President Trump. They will be debating each other for 90 minutes, moderated by Chris Wallace of fox news who has a reputation of being a meticulous debate preparer. He was moderating in the last cycle. Beyond that, issues pertaining to the Supreme Court, as well as geopolitics with u. S. China relations, and to some extent, Energy Policy could come up even the wildfires out west. The respective campaigns, they will also be playing to their bases. I would note two things. President trump is outperforming amongst his 2016 levels among hispanics and white workingclass men. Joe biden is outperforming 2016 levels compared with Hillary Clinton among africanamericans and white suburban women. This is the contours of their race as we head into what is no doubt the fourth of the first debate. Incredibly important for both of their campaigns, even though the number of undecided voters remains increasingly small. Vonnie i want to point out the symbolism, if one were to think about it, where the debate is taking place. Amazingnnan had an story on the cleveland clinic, at across the way you have picture of american deprivation, immunity is where the life thantancy is 22 years less other demographics in cleveland and elsewhere. Kevin this is a battleground portion of the hawkeye state. Anecdotally speaking, on the famed east sports street, once the home to lively restaurants, small town restaurants, is barely open now. With regard to the clinic, there is a deep sense of pride here in cleveland for that clinic, the Economic Impact it has on this community. A lot of pride in terms of the staff that has now supported a socially distanced debate. There will be no spin room. It will all be outdoors and largely virtual. This is the first time we have had this debate in these conditions. A very different feel here on the ground in cleveland. Vonnie thank you. I know that youll be there all night for us. Tune in tonight for full coverage of the president ial debate starting at eight 30 on Bloomberg Television and bloomberg radio. Still ahead, we discuss the strain on business on new york city and the possibilities that it could get worse with albert togut. This is bloomberg. Vonnie this is bloomberg markets. Im vonnie quinn. Point, thety, at one epicenter of the coronavirus, is still reeling from lockdown. Businesses are battered across the five boroughs. Joining us now to discuss the of togutalbert togut segal segal, legendary in the bankruptcy community. He has worked on the bankruptcies of enron, gm, westinghouse, and so many more. Is this the worst you have seen it in new york city, have there been worse times . Worse at the not moment, but it has the potential to be the worst thing ive ever seen in my life, im sure. Vonnie what does that outcome depend on . How many months of coronavirus lockdown, what level of both . Albert what is interesting to us in the restructuring immunity is, once the pandemic started antilockdown began, we expected there would be a flood of filings. Even though there have been some by mostly retailers and people great energy sector, the rush of filings you would have expected have not occurred. , itrying to understand that can tell you, for my firm and most others, when we were approached in march and april about potential filings, people were believing what the president said. There would be a vshaped recovery, it would be quick. So the advice that we gave to any business with a line of credit was to draw down on their as liquid ast possible to ride out the storm. Governmenturse, the passed some relief legislation that resulted in getting money to Small Business peoples employeesd their pockets. Theof that has softened blow. Having said that, at the end of the summer, a lot of the benefits ran out. It is becoming very apparent this is not going to be a vshaped recovery at all. We are not going to bounce back to where we were immediately. So the companies that had liquidity are running through their money. Employees, the customers, businesses are running through their savings. Everything is going to come together in a bad way, i fear. Be only saving grace would if we get a viable vaccine that is taken widely and comes very soon. It doesnt look like we are going to have that. Vonnie that is terrifying and desperately sad, particularly for Business Owners and their clients. When are you anticipating the next rush of bankruptcies, the sign of the new year . Latet it could be in the fall or early spring, but in the winter, for sure. Just the big not company that we know and have heard of, from chucky cheese to california pizza kitchen, but also small family owned restaurants, law firm bankruptcies. Medical,appening with dental practices . Is that happening, too . Albert not yet, and hopefully not ever. In the case of law firms, we can work remotely. I do trustee and bankruptcy work. I conducted examinations this morning by zoom. Legal profession, we are doing ok. For medical doctors, its a different story. Have a toothache, you have to go to the dentist. People are not going to the same degree that they did before. I happened to see my dentist a week ago, and he told me that. But they are coming in. Doubt in a Service Business like a dental office, or law firm, that is not very capitalintensive, they may start disappearing. Vonnie in these restructurings, can some of these businesses come back . The 300,000 businesses in new york, the prediction is 100,000 bill disappear permanently. So the answer is no. Vonnie thank you so much. Difficult conversation, difficult times for everybody. I appreciate your time, albert togut. Coming up, we will be talking about the president ial debate between President Trump and Vice President biden with jason furman. This is bloomberg. Mark im Mark Crumpton with bloomberg first word news. Has released his most recent tax returns. The returned show mr. Biden paid just under 300,000 in income taxes in 2019. The New York Times reported sunday that President Trump paid 750 in income taxes in both when he 16 and 2017 and paid no income tax at all in 10 of the previous 15 years. To president has refused release his tax information. Meantime, mr. s sons are defending their father. In separate interviews, eric trump and donald trump, jr. Says his Fathers Company pay millions of dollars in payroll, real estate, and other taxes. They acknowledge she has used appreciation tax credits and other provisions of the tax code to reduce his personal tax bill. German leaders are trying to figure out how to keep the countries coronavirus outbreak from accelerating two levels being seen in other european countries. New infections in germany have hit the highest level since april, although the numbers are still well below what they were at the height of the pandemic, they are raising alarm bells. Officials are weighing new measures, including limits on social gathering. Northerne in californias wine country has more than tripled in size. The blaze has forced thousands of evacuations and is threatening properties in a region devastated by fires just three years ago. The fire is located north of san francisco, which burned more than 36,000 acres. Global news 24 hours a day, onair, and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. Im Mark Crumpton. This is bloomberg. Amanda live from toronto, im amanda lang. Welcome to bloomberg markets. Vonnie we are joined by our bloomberg and bnn bloomberg audiences. Here are the top stories we are following from around the world. The first u. S. President ial debate between President Trump and joe biden face off with 35 days until the election. Harvardrman of the Kennedy School joins us to discuss the race. We dig into how Atlantic City and upper got a hotel casino and Borgata Hotel casino and spa are faring. Fresh concerns on demand that some of the worlds biggest traders worn a recovery is still a ways off. Loyal lower today. Oil lower today. Amanda we are seeing yesterdays leaders beat todays decliners, so in this down market, pretty close to session lows for the s p 500, we have energies and financials leading us to the downside. They were the groups that were stronger in yesterdays session. Still in session is the u. S. Stimulus package. Nancy pelosi and secretary mnuchin are back in a room, as far as we know. Will there be a deal, what will it look like if americans are left without a stimulus . Oil is one place that we are watching where Global Growth and demand is showing up. Less emotion, just hard data. Oil dipping we have down to some key levels. West texas also falling. Levels that are highly unprofitable for many western producers but also expectations of what happens. Iscourse, the political file in focus as well. We have the first president ial debate today as we have donald trump and joe biden facing up against one another. Jason furman is with us, a professor at the harvard Kennedy School. He was the chair of president obamas council of economic advisors. How much do you think a night like tonight moves the dial, if at all, or is it more entertainment value . Jason historically, it has moved the dial. A type of person that has not made up their mind yet, cannot decide if they like donald trump or joe biden is an interesting type of person. Who knows what changes their mind, when they change it. It could be tonight. Tonight, isome point am certain the president s record on the economy will come up. He has a way of spending it to make himself look good, the stock market and so on. What will joe biden say to that, what is his economic platform . Is a first of all, there negative case against trump, the mismanagement of covid. Vonnie what i mean by the question that is all ive been hearing. A few details like pell grants, but mainly it is going on the offensive against trumps economic performance. At some point, there has to be a biden plan. Say, it iss about to more important that joe biden explained to the American People what his plans are for a stronger u. S. Economy. A lot of it centers around public investment, arastructure investments greener economy. His tax plan will close a lot of loopholes, some of which are damaging for the economy. He can link that to President Trumps tax returns and personal behavior as well. Of course, against the backdrop of this economic emergency of the pandemic that continues, and the fiscal stimulus that so many have called for. How do you think any of that colors what happens tonight, voter thinking thinking . Voter, i would a be mad to think that we started with a response to the pandemic but then it disappeared after august. Biden is not in the congress, he is not president. He can talk about what he can do next year to rebuild the country, a many year project, but separately, people are hurting right now. Withe those negotiations pelosi and mnuchin work out successfully. Vonnie what happens if they dont, how much worse will this get for the lowest tier among us . Jason there is a huge fiscal cliff that we went over in august but it did not turn into an immediate fiscal cliff because many families had saved the money. There was a certain amount of cushion. They were able to smooth their way through, but that cushion is running out. For some come along gone. This will increasingly take a toll on the economy. Subtract a couple Percentage Points from growth in the fourth quarter. Fourtht from jobs in the quarter. Probably not the difference between a recession and boom, but it is a pretty big difference. The longer they wait, the bigger the consequences. There has been a sense historically that an incumbent with a decent economy does fairly well. If people feel like their job and Economic Outlook is stable, the political situation remains stable. The pandemic is a bit of a wildcard. Is that a total game changer in favor of a biden presidency, or new voters look back on how i was doing under donald trump, t around covidu policies . Scientist, iocial find two things interesting. Are you compare where you today compared to 2016, you are likely worse off today. The job situation is worse, gdp, etc. Rot. You look at the trajectory of the economy since march, phenomenal. Millions of jobs added, we will get a huge growth rate in the third quarter, so the economy is fixing itself. What will matter . The level of the economy relative to a few years ago, or the rate of change on the economy . How much do people think covid is a natural phenomenon that just happened, or if it was exacerbated by mishandling from President Trump . I dont have the answers to those questions. Vonnie to get back to the economic plans of each candidate because they will be crucial. You said the biden plan is to close some tax loopholes. What else . Give us some more details. Investmentsoposes in education, infrastructure, an aggressive plan on caregiving. That is actually really important economically. It is a constraint on our economy that families have Children Home from school, have no one to care for their children. If you want to enable growth of the american workforce, which is one of the ways that the economy has been slagging, you need care, prek,hild and the like. Investments are long overdue that he is proposing. To hearwould you expect anything new by way of economic proposals from President Trump . Know. I dont i dont ever want to predict President Trump. He is among the more unpredictable people in the political system. He has been talking a lot about a health care plan, we have not seen it. He has talked about a middleclass tax cut. There is no proposal for one. Maybe one of these days he will come out and say here is what my plan is. Maybe the people in the white house will find out from him on tv, the same time that we find out about it. Vonnie any idea how joe biden has been preparing . He has not been in the public eye all that much recently. Does he perform tonight . Jason i worked with him on 2012, andp in 2008, he put a lot of work into it then, wanted to know all of the , and, all of the specifics really pressure test his arguments. Were they persuasive, were they true . My guess is he has taken this debate equally seriously. Have not been involved in this one. We have to leave it there. Thank you, jason furman. Former chairman of the economic council. Professor at the harvard Kennedy School. For for a special special coverage tonight on Bloomberg Television and bloomberg radio. In the gamingead industry. How the Borgata Hotel casino and spa is faring in the pandemic. This is bloomberg. Vonnie this is bloomberg markets. Im vonnie quinn in new york. Alongside amanda lang in toronto. For gaming and Casino Industry has been hit hard by the pandemic although most of reopen. Headwinds remain as travel still remain. Joining us now is melonie ducre johnson, president and coo of Borgata Hotel casino and spa. How is it being the president of a casino that cannot be thriving right now, what is the situation . Challenginghas been to take over the property during this pandemic. There are many restrictions in the state of new jersey, Atlantic City proper. Borgata has faced challenges, but the entire gaming industry has not faced a challenge like this in the history of gaming. What we are doing right now is preparing for the best. At the forefront is the safety of employees and the safety of our guests to ensure that when a guest or employee enters our property, there is a sense of safety and we are going to be healthy. Amanda give us a sense of how many of your practices have changed that are very covidspecific that may add to your cost, lower the number of patrons you can serve. The true challenge in the market are the limitations of occupancy within the casino. We are limited to 25 occupancy. We have only marketed to customers who wanted to talk to us through digital, database marketing, social media. Our restaurants are at 25 capacity with six feet of social distancing. Any limited access into fine dining, casual dining, Quick Service areas. We only yielded our hotel rooms order to take care of that 25 occupancy on the gaming floor. Implemented a comprehensive, multilayer, sevenpoint safety plan to mgm resorts international, and we designed that plan in conjunction with medical and scientific experts. Vonnie i am sure that every is. Dot was put on the what does it mean in terms of the Business Model for payouts, did you have to scale back on payouts, did you have too close certain types of games that are not worth having played because they dont generate enough revenue to pay out . Melonie it is not necessarily the closing out games but the social distancing aspect on the gaming floor. We have closed every other slot machine for social distancing. In our table games, we have limited the number of positions to 50 . We are also using poly carbonate barriers to protect our dealers and guests as well. It is the social distancing. Everything has to be socialized six feet apart. One of the things happening in canada is there is much more targeted response as we hit our second wave. Clubs,st closed strip for example, limiting bars. Places like these and casinos are on the list, hotspots for transmission of covid. Are you worried there might be more targeted closures . Casinos may not be a part of a road closure, but if we see some more movement, casinos can be on the list. Venue has to be 25 occupancy, or 25 individuals. Max, individuals is the that is a limited amount. Night clubs, theaters, we are not doing any Convention Sales to limit the exposure to our customers. Vonnie who is coming . Jersey,eslie from new are you getting tourists, outofstate travelers . Melonie fortunately, atlantic larges located near two metropolitans. One third of the countrys population is within driving distance from philadelphia, new york. Many of our visitors are driving in from philadelphia, new york. Guests a niceour getaway to have a nice form of entertainment, if you choose not to fly. We have definitely seen a rise in Online Gaming, a boom for businesses focused there. How are you trying to capitalize on that aspect of the market . Melonie unfortunately, year to date, we have seen an increase in Online Gaming of 174 . While we were closed in the pandemic, our customers still wanted borgata, so they chose Online Gaming apps through sports, online casino, and poker. Vonnie what is next, what are you hoping for . There are Certain Industries that are lobbying for quicker be openings but is questionable whether that is the right thing to do on that particular score. Are you lobbying, where do you want to get to in order to become more profitable . Melonie as far as profitability, in september, month to date, year over year slot revenue is at 86 of the prior year. Table revenue is 53 of prior year. It is not lobbying for a quicker opening. We want to ensure that we have safety first. We are abiding by every protocol that has been established and enforced by the state of new jersey. It is safety first, not necessarily opening and expanding and increasing the number of positive covid cases. You withreat to have us for this. A great snapshot of a big business. Melonie johnson of Borgata Hotel casino and spa. Oilre seeing the price of below its 100day moving average. Why some traders are morning about demand. This is bloomberg. Amanda this is bloomberg markets. Im amanda lang in toronto. That was fast. After leading the gains yesterday, energy is the leading declines across the broad market today, as concerns about demand seem to be mounting. Front and center are some of the biggest names in the oil and gas center. Scarlet fu has a look at what is going on. Scarlet halliburtons share price is down 5 . Energy is the worst performing sector for the day and month. In september, down 15 . Companies are all down. Low oil prices plus weak demand means it is hard to pick up revenue. Energy names are off of their lowest in five months. Big cap oil for names, is offering percent. Exxon mobil at their lowest since early march. Barrel,ed before 40 a a nice round number, but technically, it is at a precarious level. It is below its shortterm and longterm trendline. Today it slipped below its 100day moving average. In the shortterm, we know supply and demand is unfavorable for oil because there is an increased demand from countries like libya and russia, right when european government will be restricting travel because of more infections. This after demand dropped off of a cliff earlier this year. It is a combination of everything. Deliveries of Online Purchases have picked up but that is not enough to make up for the dropoff in driving and flying. Makes up almost half of crude oil demand in the u. S. Biggestg to the three independent oil traders, consumption will not recover meaningfully for another 18 months. Down the road, companies are seeing oil demand peeking around 2030, but most of that will be met by clean your Energy Sources rather than fossil fuels. The softnessterm, in stocks is exposing what was driving oil prices. The rise in stocks helped to lift prices, but now there is selling off because of pessimism over government stimulus, concern over the rising infection count. Vonnie certainly something to bear watching. Scarlet fu, thank you. Crude oil right now trading just below 39 a barrel. The nasdaq has crawled its way back to flat. We are down. 2 on the s p. The dollar index just below 94. More markets, next. Mark i am mark with bloombergs first word news. All eyes will be on cleveland, ohio tonight when President Trump and his democratic rival joe biden faceoff for the first debate. White house aides say the president has spent the day preparing. Some aides have encouraged him to adopt a more measured tone. Bloomberg hears he is prepared to face tough questions about china. The in for full coverage of debate starting at 8 30 p. M. On Bloomberg Television and radio. The United Nations secretarygeneral urged the International Community to address the economic devastation caused by the pandemic. Reversing years of development. His comments came a day after Johns Hopkins university revealed the global death toll for covid19 has topped one million. A mindnumbing figure