Last night leasing a 2. 2 trillion dollar relief proposal last night. Joining us is emily wilkins, bloomberg congressional reporter. This mean something can get done, or something wont get done because it further polarizes any talks between pelosi and mnuchin . Emily i think we should look at this is a little bit of a lastditch effort on the part of the house. They have come down from 3. 4 trillion down to 2. 2 trillion. Theyve made it very clear they are serious about this. They have some Democrat Members in these very difficult races, having to go home and face constituents who are really hurting right now, so they are pushing for something to get done. Pelosi has said that the republicans need to come up on their offer. They have been this way for several months, so it is kind of now or never, but things dont ticket levy optimistic at this point. Guy do you think there is any chance that the president pulls a rabbit out of a hat tonight if he starts talking about what is happening with stimulus . Emily he could potentially. Hes has said he wants to get this done. He believes it would help him with voters to get another round of stimulus checks out there, get more funding for small businesses. He had to bid to move forward with some executive orders. The problem is at the end of the day, congress controls the purse strings, so theres only so much the executive branch can do on their own. Guy we look forward to the Coverage Later on. Thank you very much, indeed. , appreciate the coverage throughout. Consumer confidence data rising to one a 1. 8. To estimate was 101. 8. The 90s. Te was in joining us now is Julian Emanuel , btig chief equity and derivatives strategist. We have clearly the big trade right now on volatility around the november election. Everybody trying to figure out whether or not you want to be buying and selling. Do you buy or sell volatility around the election . Are you a buyer or a seller . Julian we think volatility is reasonably fairly priced, but that means there is going to be volatility. From our point of view, if you look at the last couple of days, i would say the sole rationale for the market rally is number one, people probably got extended in their positioning a little bit the wrong way thinking quarter end would be a selling event. It is not likely shaping up that way. But more importantly is basically reviving the hopes of stimulus from near zero in the wake of the controversy over the Supreme Court to what may be close to 5050 at this point. But from our point of view, whether you do or you dont get stimulus, the market is likely to stay volatile with perhaps a downside bias after the election , to the extent that it is unclear, contested, or perhaps both. Alix there was a really interesting piece out talking about how the vix actually seems to return to some kind of calm in december, whereas options on the s p tell a different story, of a longer election cycle and more uncertain. What is understood and priced in . Julian in terms of options skew, theres been a little bit of a renewed bid to downside puts, but frankly, when you about what the market is actually realizing in terms of volatility, it is much lower than where the price of volatility is. So if you are betting on long volatility strategies, it is costing you money every day you wake, said every day you wait, so that is probably why you have that discrepancy. But our conversations for at least the last month have more in how do you had yourself over inauguration day, which is january 20. Guy just thinking about tonights debate and how i should frame it from a market point of view, if biden does well, do i sell volatility because it will widen the spread in terms of the polling and make it look more secure, and therefore it is more likely we will have no contested election . If the president does more, do i buy volatility because it is going to narrow the pole and make the whole process more contentious narrow the polls and make the whole process more contentious . Julian i think really it is being more comfortable with the idea that the uncertainty is going to persist. Clearly, if the president does better, or Vice President biden sort of shows low energy or something along those lines, you can expect the narrowing of the polls. But the bottom line is when the average of the polls are 6 , 7 the way they are, with not a ton of movement, that really doesnt say much about what the actual outcome is going to be on november 3. It certainly said very little in 2016 about what the outcome was going to be, and investors really just have to deal with that reality. Alix that is a great point. I know we were all looking at one thing in 2016, and it played out very differently. Do you want to be averaging into risky assets . Is that the right play, to play some kind of volatility . Julian we would rather see some more weakness in the market. Our view is that the last several days or sort of a countertrend rally in what we believe is a correction that has further to run, likely a test of the s p 500s 200 day moving 3105, 3110. Nd whether it comes before or after the election is likely a function of whether or not we do get stimulus. If we dont get stimulus, we would expect that downside test to come sooner rather than later. At that point, we would start to warm up to areas like health care, which have been very unduly punished by the propensity for politics to change the debate. Guy do you think stocks have the most volatility around this phase, or that other Asset Classes are likely to be even bumpier, for instance foreignexchange . Ian the dollar has been first off, we have to step back and look at positioning. The dollar short positions are, in our view, and they have moved in lockstep in opposite for the most part of the entire summer, to the long positions in the nasdaq. The longer the term given the deficit financing needs and the likelihood that you are going to have a continued global synchronized recovery, next year we would expect dollar weakness. However, if you go back to the beginning of september, what you see is Dollar Strength in risk again, itso for us, is sort of volatility around a baseline in terms of the dollar. But for us, if you think about it, particularly given the incredible quiet in the fixed income markets, the likelihood is the equity markets will bear the brunt of any volatility we do see in and around the election. Alix i want to go back to some headlines that came out. Federal reserve president from philadelphia Patrick Harker was talking about the need for fiscal stimulus. That is critical. You were saying that earlier as well. I guess my question is what is the timeline for that . It was critical back in july when we thought the first rolloff was going to be terrible, and it wasnt, and now we know that the 300 is going to be rolling off at the end of this month, yet Consumer Confidence jumped over 100. Everyone seems to think we will get something. Doesnt the timeline matter . Julian the timeline does matter. As in Everything Else in 2020, the subtext is the virus is the overriding element here. If we managed to suppress what a lot of people are thinking about as a second wave, you can put the timeline off into the future. But when you thick about small businesses, particularly restaurants and so on that are operating outdoors, and whose restrictions are likely to become more onerous, airlines as well, as we get further into the winter, it is going to be vital to keep those businesses with a lifeline so that when we get to the spring, presumably there is some sort of medical advance, that these businesses will still be around to power the economy forward. Guy just your take on expectations for a vaccine. A few weeks ago, every vaccine hedge had the market turning one way or the other. The news seems to have faded a little bit, but i am wondering where expectations are because the experts we are talking to her certainly downplaying the impact it is going to have, at least in the near term. All of thehink with political controversy around a vaccine being announced before or after the election, the pharma executives involved have taken pain to ensure the public that whatever the timing is, it is likely to be robust and well tested, which would obviously push any sort of announcement out past the election. Our expectation is that you are probably going to hear something at least on a preliminary basis before yearend, with the idea that some time in the first half of 2021, which talks to the importance of the stimulus in the here and now, that there will be some sort of reasonably widespread rollout. I think that is more or less where investors have their minds set. Alix Julian Emanuel of btig, stay with us. We will get your thoughts on tech, more on the dollar in the last half of the year. This is bloomberg. Ritika lets check in on the bloomberg first word news. Electionard warns that day could trigger a series of events in the u. S. He spoke to bloomberg tv this morning. My take on what is going to happen november 3 is anything can happen. Trump can win. Biden can win. There could be total confusion and chaos for not just days, but maybe weeks or, god help us, longer about who is going to next, longer, about who is going to be the next president. A wildfire in northern californias wine country has no more than tripled in size. The blaze has forced thousands of evacuations and is threatening a region devastated by fires three years ago. It has burned more than 36,000 acres. The pandemic has battered new york city businesses, and it is expected to get worse. There have been almost 6000 closures. This fall is likely to see more of the same. Businesses are burning through private loans they tapped in march. Meanwhile, barclays calling the socalled end of the American City a myth. The bank says that with the exception of new york and san francisco, housing prices are rising in both cities and suburbs. Global news 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. Im ritika gupta. This is bloomberg. Alix thank you so much. As we wind up expanding here in new york specifically, obviously dealing with home prices not rising as much as bankruptcies picking up, as we open restaurants indoors and Public Schools are open today for the first time in person, do things actually get that are, or do we just stay like this, or even worse, when we have crops of outbreaks coming up in new york city . We shut down again do we shut down again . Guy i think it is really hard to judge. The u. K. And europe really trying to find a balance here, and the balance seems to be towards greater levels of lockdown, but not complete lockdown like we saw earlier in the year. The sentiment seems to be keep schools open, keep businesses open, but all of the fun stuff, eating outside, that kind of thing, going to bars, that is the first that is likely to fall foul in these new regulations. I think we will probably be able to go to the office in london. We will probably have our kids in school. But Everything Else looks like it will have a very tough time. Alix this is according to the partnership of new york city, that says the pandemic could close permanently as many as 1 3 of new york citys businesses, a truly staggering amount. Also, new york city needs the state aid, which means we need the federal weight, which brings us all federal aid, which brings us all back to stimulus. Guy will we get any hint of night into nights debate . Some suggesting the president might use this as an opportunity to deliver that, but as we also heard, this is ultimately a decision for congress. We are also getting news that is weakened the turkish lira to a fresh low against the u. S. Dollar. Enian new services actually, the service out of russia reporting in armenia is reporting that an armenian fighter jet shut down a turkish f16. As you can see, that is once again sending the turkish lira lower. More on that to follow. This is bloomberg. Ritika time for the Bloomberg Business flash. Im ritika gupta. Historye biggest offer for a japanese company. The company will spend 40 billion to buy shares it doesnt own. That represents a 40 premium. It is a move that may help the Prime Minister push to lower phone bills. Billionaire peter thiel will even aftert grip shares of his Data Mining Company begin trading tomorrow. He will have full control over any individual or investor group, and an unconventional awarding structure will award additional power to thiel and gratuity. That is your Bloomberg Business flash. Guy thank you very much, indeed. I need to clarify something which i got wrong a moment ago. Armenia is saying a turkish f16 shut down one of its jets, a russian jet. This is according to the news agency. I incorrectly had the fighting the wrong way around. According to the report, the pilot of the jet was killed. As a result of which, we are seeing the turkish lira at a fresh record low. The other piece of breaking news we just started to get over the last few minutes is details of a settlement between j. P. Morgan and the u. S. Government authorities. It is going to pay 920. 2 million in a record u. S. Spoofing case. We are not getting much of the action, as you can see, and the share price of j. P. Morgan. Alix no, but this is truly a staggering spoofing case for j. P. Morgan, and the way that the individuals were caught was very much like how you would set up trying to get a mob ring. Whereole spoofing idea is you show there are lots of trades in the market to help bid up demand, but then pulled the orders right away so it artificially inflates the prices. The article in the bloomberg about the tales of it the details of it, fascinating. Guy it is well worth reading, as alix says. Lets talk about what is happening in the market right now. I wonder if we got an effect yesterday . As we come through to the end of the month now, i wonder whether that has now faded out of the market. The nasdaq has lost over 6 in september, its worst month in six months. So how should investors position going into the rest of the year . Still with us, Julian Emanuel of btig. What does september teach us, do you think . Julian it really took a lot of the for al a lot of ae froth out of what had been very speculative, Technology Led market. You had the rise in the nasdaq almost parabolic in august, along with the rise of the volatility index. You look at it, on the one hand, Technology Stocks deserved their gain this year because when we think about what might have happened to the economy without technology, it is very easy to make the case that the collapse we had in the secondorder due to the virus, that you would be scraping on the bottom instead of recovering vigorously as it appears the Third Quarter will be. But on the other hand, the multiples now and the valuations 2021y are reflecting a that is not likely to materialize in terms of earning gains. Our view is that the economy will recover. If that materializes, you are likely to have rotation into more cyclical areas. Alix in the pure shortterm regard, are we looking at a short squeeze in the nasdaq 100 . Regardless of how everything plays out with the virus. Julian that has definitely been part of the narrative of the last two days, a dramatic increase in Short Interest after months of very little Short Interest. Whether it is a hedge against some of the outstanding positions or some of the deals we have seen in recent weeks, that is a matter open for debate. But whenever you have that kind of dramatic increase in Short Interest, the probability of a short squeeze always rises, and that is certainly part of what we have seen the last several days. Guy while this has been happening, breadth in the market has been increasing quite substantially. Do you expect that to continue to be there . Julian ultimately we do. There really are a lot of reasons to be optimistic about equity markets, but again, we are going to have to get through what could be some of the most profound uncertainty in politics in not even years, but literally almost centuries. Alix based on that, what is the best safe haven . Treasuries arent going to cut it necessarily. Gold hasnt really played that role in the last couple of weeks. Julian i think this is one of these times where, and we have said this time and again, when you have strong rallies to the september highs, up 83 in the nasdaq, up 63 in the s p 500, if you as an investor are feeling a little bit queasy about the degree of your shareholdings, cash is ok. It doesnt yield anything. We understand that. But then again, part of the narrative around treasuries is the yield really isnt there either, and that is a longerterm risk that ultimately, if we see higher rate, we do think that will drive more people into equities. But a little cash is not bad at this point. Alix julian, thanks very much. Coming up, President Trump and joe biden facing off tonight in the first president ial debate. We will discuss some key things to watch. This is bloomberg. So youre a small business, or a big one. You were thriving, but then. Oh. Ah. Okay. Plan, pivot. How do you bounce back . You dont, you bounce forward, with serious and reliable internet. Powered by the largest gig Speed Network in america. But is it secure . Sure its secure. And even if the power goes down, your connection doesnt. So how do i do this . You dont do this. We do this, together. Bounce forward, with comcast business. Alix live from new york, im alix steel, with guy johnson in london. This is bloomberg markets. We are about four weeks from the u. S. Elections. The first president ial debate is tonight. Unicredit had a report out that talked about why the tax issue is so huge when it comes to personal income. This chart along the horizontal line shows the top 0. 1 , the top 1 , all the way down to the lower income scale of 10 . The lines show the different years and the tax rate for those different incomes. Earnersan see, 95 of actually pay a pretty steady tax rate of 25 . But the top earners saw their , 75 come down from night from 1950, 75 , all the way down to 25 under President Trump. The other issue, as we well know, is Corporate Taxes. Joe biden wants to increase the Corporate Tax rate to 28 from 21 that President Trump issued. That would actually make the u. S. Come right behind france in terms of the highest Corporate Tax rate overall. Biden will do other things, like offering incentives to manufacture in the u. S. , as well as penalties if you are going to manufacture somewhere else, but i love the response. So far, impact anyimpacting any plans capex plans. Guy certainly, those numbers are going to go much higher. We are waiting for the u. K. To be doing that, and we are going to be talking to the institute of fiscal studies a little later on in the next hour. For now, we are going to go to california. Lanhee chen, Hoover Institution fellow and director of domestic policy studies is joining us. How big a gap do you think there is between the two sides on tax . I see differing reports suggesting that the gap when it comes to the tax story Going Forward could be quite limited. What is your assessment . Lanhee i think part of the challenge is we dont have a great sense of what President Trump would want to do in a second term. He hasnt been very specific necessarily about his tax policy plans. I do think it is pretty clear, at least on the Corporate Tax, there are differences. The biden team would like to roll back the president s tax cuts on the corporate side, i think would be felt pretty broadly across the many income distributions in the u. S. Difference is currently on the Corporate Tax i. On income tax, biden has made no secret of the fact that he is interested in raising the top marginal tax rate. That would be a difference as well. Jan that, we dont have a great sense, as i said, because the details are still fuzzy from the white house and the trump campaign. But certainly a difference in philosophy the very least, in terms of where they would like to go with taxation as well. Alix on a corporate level, how do they approach some kind of tax policy, where it feels like anything is going to be contentious, and at some point, tax will have to go up to pay for stimulus when it comes to coronavirus . Lanhee in the long run, the challenge is we have created significant fiscal pressure, and if there is additional policy and acted a Biden Administration , that would place even more strain on the fiscal picture in the u. S. , which would at some point result in tax increases. On the Corporate Tax side, the theger challenge is lack of certainty around where that Corporate Tax rate will be. That is probably the bigger challenge than the rate in and of itself, the fact that it to 27 orctuate 28 , and if we have a supplicant publican administration, it could come back down again. But fundamentally, i think the biden team sees that Corporate Tax rate as a political opportunity for them, as well as a policy opportunity. Something they can raise without taking too much political heat. Guy how do the revelations of the last few days about the president s tax affairs affect how the debate will be handled . And how does it limit both sides or provide but opportunities for both sides to get out in front of this tax story . Lanhee in every campaign, there is a septemberoctober surprise. There is something that affects how that campaign, the trajectory of that campaign, it appears that this tax story is that surprise. Limit potentially how impactful it could be. The vast majority of americans have already made their mind up about who they are voting for. Even in the states that are adequate battleground states, the percentage of undecided voters is pretty small. Recent polling suggests for example, and the state of michigan, it is about 4 of voters. In michigan, about 2 of voters. The second thing i would say is we have kind of gotten used to this view of President Trump in the u. S. Which is i think people know where they stand on him. People understand what his point of view is. I dont know that it is going to change many opinions because i think people suspected all along that President Trump probably hadnt paid very much in taxes, probably had taken advantage of the u. S. Tax code. I am not sure that information at this stage changes. It is inconvenient for the trump campaign. It will be a topic at tonights debate. But i dont see it affecting the overall scope of the race. Alix what rhetoric really emerged over the last 48 hours, particularly as we look at who President Trump owes all of that money to, with the debt coming due . Concerns that you have a president deeply in debt who is going to need to find money somewhere, and obviously has to pay off that debt. Is that a real story, or Just Campaign rhetoric . Lanhee there have been insinuations since day one that there was something involving the russians, something involving other governments, certain chinese entities as well. What i come back to is that the fundamental dynamics of this race are very well set already. Those who are inclined to believe that the president is somehow exposed or the president somehow has liabilities in this regard will continue to believe that. I just dont see it changing many minds at this point, unless there was a smoking gun piece of evidence, which i dont believe there has been in any of the reporting. Itis very good difficult is very difficult to see how this impacts the race in any way in the states that matter. You could argue that 2 undecided or 4 undecided is an important factor, but that number i think is steadily going to decline, and i dont know how many people are genuinely undecided versus leaning one way or another. I dont think theres enough here necessarily to change the dynamic. Guy how do the democrats change that . Do you think theres anything they can do with this that will allow them to land critical blows on the president , for instance in tonights debate . How did they manage this story . As you say, it is a surprise. We werent expecting this news. We thought the audit was still ongoing. How do they turn this into some been useful . If the president simply going to , how do they taxes Democrats Use that story to provide a different line of attack . Lanhee it has to go to this sort of disconnect between who trump presents himself as, and perhaps who the facts say he is. For example, there has been some conversation about how successful of a businessman was President Trump when he was citizen trump. I think that set of issues could be explored, that disconnect between what the reality of his tax returns show and what he claims regarding his career in business. Or, for example, a disconnect between somebody who claims to want to drain the swamp, get rid of special interests, but has taken advantage of the tax code that has allowed him to pay very little or have very little actual tax liability. I think that by exposing that disconnect between the image the president presents and the reality presented in the taxes, that is what the democrats have. I am not saying it is a significant possibility that there will be a lot of opinions changed, but the bending on diminution, that is but tia, that on the minu is not going to be what most americans Pay Attention to. Alix thank you for that. Tune in tonight for bloombergs special coverage of the president to debate at 8 30 p. M. Here in new york. David westin doing triple duty on that. Also want to update you on some headlines here. According to an aide, pelosi and mnuchin did discuss the stimulus package. The s p taking a leg lower on some of those headlines, so we will see how that plays out, particularly in the debate. Guy out of the u. K. , governor bailey from the bank of england is speaking on one of those webinars we all now know and love, suggesting that the Third Quarter, we could see some outperformance relative to expectations, but that the economy is going to slow down. The pace of the recovery is going to slow down after that. He says as a result, he has not made up his mind on negative rates. He says it could have an effect on the transmission mechanism, and he cant easily put a date on the end of negative rates review. Suggesting that there are other tools that are still there. We will come back to that a little bit later, but coming up, we are talking about the bet against fossil fuels. We are going to assess one of the years strongest performing energy funds. L is going to be joining us next to discuss. This is bloomberg. Ritika this is bloomberg markets. Up, james furman, former chief white house economist. This is bloomberg. Lets check in on the bloomberg first word news now. Im ritika gupta. Jp morgan has agreed to pay more than 920 Million Dollars to resolve u. S. Claims of market manipulation in futures and treasury securities. The bank also admitted wrongdoing. It is the biggest penalty ever for the illegal practice known as spoofing. The global death toll from the coronavirus has now climbed over one million. A researcher at the university of melbourne says actual fatalities could be almost double that. Ability to viruss transmit and people who show diseases of the has meant an inability to accurately quantify the disease. According to the institute for fiscal studies, it is highly possible that Government Spending will make up about 45 of gdp by the middle of the decade. It hasnt been that high since the 1970s. Global news 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. Im ritika gupta. This is bloomberg. Alix thanks so much. Rounding out the Third Quarter, wanted biggest Third Quarter, one of the biggest losers are energy stocks. One hedge fund shows you can still make money in the asset class. Hite hedge asset management. Joining us now is the man behind the call, james jampel, Hite Hedge Asset management founder. Lets just take a quick look back here. How did you get to 25 gains when the sector is down . James our philosophy here is too short the losers in the decarbonization trend. We have come to the increasing realization that the fossil fuel industry has a lot of similarities to the sort of horse and buggy industry around the turn of the century. Leastes sense that the risky way to make money off of energy is too short those that are likely to be the biggest losers in the world of decarbonization. Guy i am curious as to what happens next. We have clearly seen energy costs coming significantly lower as a result of coronavirus, and i am wondering whether that has got the longterm story a little out of whack. Where we are now, what is the risk of a countertrend rally in this that will affect some of the shorts youve got on at the moment . Have Energy Prices swung too low because of coronavirus . James well, we dont think so. We are not in the business of prognosticating prices, and we do look at the futures curve, and it does suggest that oil prices will rise slowly into the near future. Whenever you are taking a stance in a declining industry by betting against it, there will be cyclical or dead cat bounce is that you can see. But given the controls in place, we believe that we are able to manage that in the history of our fund, and we have structures in place to make sure we are ready for that should it occur but our general thesis is that fossil energy is sort of the classic value trap in that a lot of the things that would drive earnings expectations and andiples really changed, you cant rely on the history to pretty future to predict the future. It could be in the 8 to 10 range or a little less. What are you long, what are you short right now . Short in general, we are the most overvalued and in the carbon value chain at all times. That includes oil, coal, natural gas, and ranges anywhere from exploration and production to , bothsing, transportation ocean and pipeline, refining, refined product transportation, retail and select users of carbon. In order to present a position that is not 100 short, we had step position with a highly diversified long basket designed to take as much volatility out of the fund as we can. Assets the bulk of those lie in europe or the United States . James most of the energy names and most of the Energy Market cap is here in north america, so that is where we focus. Alix is there something to be said for short exxon come along shell . Exxon, long or are you looking at specific technologies . James we consider ourselves industry experts, having been at this for over six and a half years now. We think we are good at identifying who in the short to medium run is going to outperform others. I really cant go into specific names on the call, but if you think about the election Going Forward, certainly if you look at joe bidens policies, they are quite negative for those with exposure primarily in the u. S. , and maybe not as negative for those Companies Whose operations are outside of the u. S. Commodities are commodities and other assets are an inflation hedge . There are those looking for exactly what the outlook will look like from here. Energy is part of that and exponentially. Part of that mix potentially. James we think there will be better places to go, quite frankly, if you are looking at commodities as an inflation hedge. The supply dynamics for the oil industry are really weak. We have discovered that there is plentiful supply. We used to talk about peak oil, back when i started the fund. Clearly we are never going to run out. The demand picture is increasingly in question. Of you sawuple at a couple of weeks ago. So there are ways to play inflation with commodities. With the fundamentals as we get this one, we think that is not the best place to get them. Alix how do you Value Companies accurately, when we dont know how the transition is going to play out, we dont really know what demand will be . James i think you have to look for strong current cash flows and resiliency. It promised the promises of future cash flows in the oil business should be taken with a huge grain of salt. , theseain scenarios Companies May or may not lose their social license to operate, but we think it is quite likely they are going to lose their social license to make a lot of profit. We would think that you would want to look for a lot of current cash, a lot of return of capital to shareholders in the short run if you were to go this way. Guy how similar is this story to the tobacco story . A lot of people carried on owning tobacco stocks despite the social stigma because they kept kicking out a lot of cash. James there are some similarities, but some key differences here. One of the key differences is that tobacco as an industry was always a very high margin business. It was always somewhat of an older couple he somewhat of an oligopoly. Frankly, it wasnt an existential risk to the planet. It was a risk to a socioeconomic group that had less voice in government. That all said, the key that really ended the tobacco trade is the scent of vaping as a substitute. That is exactly what we are seeing in the fossil fuel business now, with solar, wind, Energy Storage and ev. Substitutes are rapidly advancing. You have governments pushing them, subsidizing them. And many billionaires like elon musk are basically selling us a dream, raising billions of dollars in capital, and whatever the success of tesla is going to be, we are not going to learn we are not going to unlearn what tesla has learned about battery technology. Guy we certainly are not. We got to leave it there. Thank you so much for joining us, james jampel. This is bloomberg. Alix time now for futures in focus. Joining us now is Vincent Cignarella. Where are we headed as we wrap up the Third Quarter into the fourth . Vincent what we are looking at, and this is really interesting coming into this quarter, is hedge funds very overweight short dollars, which means long euros. The situation going into debate might offer an infringing might offer an interesting twist on that. Should trump win the debate, there is counterintuitive trade in the market that normally, if the president would win, you would think it would be a risk on event. In this case, a closing of the gap between the president and former Vice President would suggest the potential for a contested election and a risk off move, which would be better for the dollar and negative for the euro. Alix youre right, i would not have thought that. We got a headline that new yorks daily positive rate is over 3 for the first time in a month, on the day that schools are open in person for the first time. How sensitive is that for the headline . Vincent it will be is if it will be if it continues. Nguyen pelosi and minow seen and mnuchin are resuming talks, but nothing is going to get done today, so we are moving that into the fourth quarter. With the virus in new york city being very big, theres the real possibility that, if it were to spread, a sensibly Governor Cuomo would shut things down again, which, for the global economy, would not be good. You. Good to see thanks a lot, Vincent Cignarella of bloomberg macro squawk. This is bloomberg. Live from london, im guy johnson. Alix steel is a new york. We are counting you down to the european close on bloomberg markets. The governor of the bank of england says the u. K. Economy probably outperformed expectations in the Third Quarter, but expect growth to now slow. Despite this, he still hasnt reached a judgment on negative rates. The turkish lira hits a fresh record low against the dollar as one of the countrys fighter jets shut down an armenian aircraft. And the u. K. s institute for fiscal studies warns that the u. K. Is heading for a big tax hike and a bigger stake. We will talk to the reports author. Equity markets beginning to nose over on both sides of the atlantic. A number of competing factors coming into play. Earlier on, we were basically marking time, waiting for the debates. But now we are getting numbers out of new york that are a little alarming in terms of t