Everyone is safeguarded and is as safe as possible. But again, there are different rules in england, if you are in scotland, in wales. That of people are saying it is confusing. The bigger thing is that there is not a rebellion inside the tory party about some of the extra things put in place, on the fact that the Prime Minister is gaining too much power. Debate. Big story is the ruining beauty rest. Right now, your first word news, ritika gupta. Ritika President Trump and joe biden will go headtohead for the first time in the president ial debate in cleveland tonight. The president unwittingly has n,ne a big favor to bide lowering expectations. He has painted biden as sleepy, which we have lowered expectations for menu have not seen him since the democratic convention. And a scaledback 2. 2 trillion proposal has been the legislation is designed to move along talks between House Speaker nancy pelosi and secretary of the treasury steven mnuchin. More details coming up from the New York Times investigation of President Trumps taxes and income. The time says he earned more than 4 million from his time on the show the apprent ice, which the Administration Calls the times reported a political hit piece. And the Trump Administration may impose more sanctions on iran. The u. S. May target more than a thousand banks and declare the entire area offlimits. Global news 24 hours a day on air and at bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. Day. A quiet futures, negative four. Bonds not giving us much. Yields 0. 694 . The dollar a little bit weaker. We are watching the turkish lira to new record weakness off of military affairs. Francine looking at pound, not moving by much, but it is gaining a touch, strengthening a touch. European shares are down, led by banks and other cyclical stocks. I think maybe some of the Market Participants are taking a bit of breath, given that the global death toll from the pandemic exceeded one million. Investors are also putting hope on the 2. 2 trillion stimulus package from the democrats. We will see what happens tomorrow morning when we wake up. Tom it was 1960, in the debate of john kennedy and richard nixon. Many people drawing parallels to this important debate. In cleveland, at the case western reserve university, our kevin now, cirilli. First question, this came up twice yesterday why is the president having limited preparation . Kevin hes going to wing it. I was speaking with forces last night regarding the president s debate strategy. If you look back traditionally to incumbent president s, they typically do struggle in their first debate. The both sides, President Trump as well as nominee biden really lowering citations. We head into the debate with the president outperforming amongst hispanics given his 2016 levels and among white workingclass voters. Iscontrast, nominee biden outperforming in white suburban africanamericans, comparatively speaking with Hillary Clinton in 2016. He has managed a lead above what Hillary Clinton was pulling at in this particular part of the cycle. Tom i looked at the vectors of national polling, and i guess i stored i guess i sort of toss them aside for state polling. You are integral predict about this. Tell us about ohio as a battleground state. Kevin here we are in cleveland, the allimportant battleground state of ohio, which has traditionally been going more in a republican electoral direction over the past several cycles, but this is where joe biden needs to pick up votes. If you look at the catholic vote, a heavy catholic constituency here . Here. Trump by a single percentage point among catholics. And important to that will be the discussion of judge amy coney barrett, a catholic conservative. Many different battles to be waged that will erupt during the first debate. I also want to know the volatility baked into the election, investors now prepare not just for a november prolonged political battle but one that may last even into december as a result of the Supreme Court fights and as a result of the fiscal stimulus fight that is also happening in. He background of the elections francine is ohio still a swing state . You look at what happened in 2016, i think the president won by eight points. Is it now solidly republican or are there new swing states . Kevin i think there are new swing states. I think ohio is a state that democrats do not want to count off. You look at a state like arizona, where democrats have been incredibly competitive in. Samples some polls have biden beating trump in the battleground state of arizona. I am also watching carefully florida, becoming much closer than i think republicans would have liked to have seen, to look at the hispanic vote in florida, particularly cubanamericans that is another constituency both campaigns are monitoring. Pennsylvania, where the Biden Campaign is headquartered, a state that is crucial to democrats and to bidens coalition that he is trying to put together as well. Francine i think the moderator had to select six topics that were announced by the commission on president ial debates last week. The records of trump and biden, Supreme Court, covid19, the economy, race and violence, and the integrity of the election. What will be most contentious . Kevin all of them. I mean take your pick. But Chris Wallace is someone who has a reputation for preparing meticulously for these types of debates. He had a debate last cycle that garnered him wide praise. Format,in terms of the 90 minutes uninterrupted, this sidesopportunity for both to really make their case. But it is also, more importantly, joe biden has to prove that he can handle the marathon that is a president ial debate, and the president has to defend how he has handled covid. The those are the two bars for the candidates. Tom debate to debate, the moderating is uneven. There is huge acclaim for Chris Wallace. What will you look for from nist wallacece from mr. Tonight to stay control in control . That first and foremost, he is storied and has a reputation of holding whoever he is interviewing to task. 10,000 toters, the 20,000 undecided voters in these battleground states are able to understand divisively decisively the policies a President Trump or a President Biden would an act. And secondly that the political theater and political noise do not overshadow the importance of an american tradition, one that dates back decades. And it is crucial to the election process. All the pundits are saying that debates do not matter they still matter, because there are undecided voters. And it is a test of american democracy, in order to see how these two nominees which direction they want to take the country in. Tom you are in cleveland. I will be taking a surveillanc e nap so i can stay up for the cirilli show. I know you will head to the rock and roll hall of fame. Its good to be in cleveland and check out the rock and roll hall of fame, right . [laughter] kevin it is good to be in cleveland, because it is back on the trail. Even just driving around, and you see the yard signs i was on the famous east ford street last night. So much of cleveland shut down as a result of the pandemic, but talking to some of the locals, they have a much different perception of this race than what i hear inside the beltway and with my friends up in new york. That is why this is so incredibly important. And they are both coming from their entourages. Underscores the importance of the Supreme Court pick. He will also defend on a National Security front as well. Tom i just slipped into my puny brain china growth . Even know whot the doobie brothers are. Im going to google. Tom thank you, kevin cirilli. Talkve much, much more to about here. David westin leaving our david westin leading our coverage. I know he is really interested in the backandforth of the first 10 minutes of that debate. From london, from new york, this is bloomberg. Tom good morning, everyone. Bloomberg surveillance. Francine lacqua listening to the doobie brothers in london. Im tom keene in new york. Joining us now, howard ward. Are you long equities and can you buy at the margins this morning . Howard tom, obviously we are long equities. We are in a bull market. Having said that, this is a bull market under some pressure. For fourwn in the s p weeks. Years expected earnings, i think i would be more comfortable adding to stocks if we had another 5 down in the market. I would rather be down 15. I would let hot air out of the market, especially leading up to the election. And with all of the uncertainty leading up to the economy. Tom it is not about punditry at gabelli, it is about quality movement. Tell us about managers ability to adapt. Howard it is very much like the have and havenots we have read about in the paper. A number of companies, particularly on the growth side, have actually benefited from the covid shut down. Lots of Information Technology stocks, some financial tech ce type some ecommer stocks, like amazon this has been a big boon to them, remarkably. On the other hand, if you are in the airline business, hospitality business, bars, restaurants, you are hurting. Even the nations Hospital System is suffering daily cash bleeding of unprecedented proportions. The haves have become expensive stocks, the havenots not so expensive. But the uncertainty a lot of people would like to have to invest in those stocks is missing. There is no vaccine. Yeah, we will probably have something to show for that over the next six months, but it is uncertain. The average vaccine is a 10 year process. The fiscal eight, which was so important as a pillar of strength, getting this rebound going, that is evaporating. Unless we get another deal, a lot of these bars and restaurants and hotels, small businesses, are going to be going out of business. A rebound so far, and i think that will be challenged with the balance of this year, especially without any additional fiscal aid. I know they are working on something in washington. My guess is the stock market will go down enough at some point in the next month to get a deal done. Francine what is the Market Pricing in in terms of stimulus and in terms of elections . Howard first of all, on the election, i do not think the market is pricing it does not seem to care. , frome calculated that the stockmarket standpoint, markets are looking at corporate earnings more than anything. Plan would reduce earnings by about 7 . Not really a game changer. 21 times get maybe earnings instead of 20. Certainly high income individuals would feel differently about that. They may say it is a game changer. But for the stockmarket overall, i do not think it is. Cannot seei just that stockmarket market having discounted a lot. We will see. At some point, the stock market does need to come to grips with the changes that are very likely to happen in the tax code. Francine does that happen close to the election . What does it track . Id i think it does think this next month will be a struggling month for the stock market with a lot of volatility. I think the Economic Data is more volatile than ever. I think wall street estimates are guesstimates now more than ever because of the unknowns. We had a stock market that had its fastest 35 decline in deepest,ollowed by the shortest recession on record, then the biggest 100 day gain in the stock market, which was 45 , followed by the biggest sixmonth advance, 60 . The volatility is there. The Economic Situation as such, i do not think we can just dial extrapolation of todays good news on the economy for the balance of this year and next year. I think peak growth was in august. I think we are slowing down in the economy. It is a matter of how much we slow. And it will take a long time to get unemployment back under 4 . Tom that is what i want to go can you acquire shares of Apple Computer after this pullback and before the new product announcements . Howard apple, of course, was part of the stock split mania in august, which also included tesla. That come of course, is absurd, because as many of you know, that does nothing for the fundamentals of the company or its stock. Your ownership stake has not changed. Not triggered the 1999 run while it is still a Little Pricey at about 30 times forward earnings, i think you can buy there, because the new 5g phone due to hit the market next month is going to be a blockbuster, with perhaps one third of all iphone owners upgrading next year. So we think this is a good time now. You can buy apple here, after the pullback after august. Tom we will advance this dialogue with mr. Ward. Mr. Ward with gabelli. Coming up, the debate tonight. Too busy calendar. Jobs day friday. Jason furman in the 1 00 hour at the kennedy school, teaching economics at harvard. Futures flat. The terminal is boring. The dollar is weaker. This is bloomberg. Ritika this is bloomberg surveillance. Im ritika gupta. Whether tosidering buy into a ridehailing joint venture between bmv daimler. Bloombergs learned there have been earlystage talks. The Challenging Market could make it ethical to agree on a price. Lvmh countersued tiffany weeks after pulling out of its purchase of the jeweler. The luxury goods maker said the decision was driven by the french governments request to delay the deal making. A trial is set in delaware to determine whether lvmh must go through with the deal. Francine thank you. There is not much going on in the markets. A couple Market Participants are focusing on the potential stimulus that could be coming from the u. S. It could be underwhelming in terms of the amounts. At the same time, they are looking at the number of increases in cases around the world. Also looking at overall european stocks. They are pretty range bound, but they are dropping. Looking at banks and cyclical stocks down. Tom just moments ago, the turkish lira dropping like a rock. A stronger turkish lira, in aggressively from 7. 5. I do not have any news flow, if that is direct intervention from the central bank or from the government, but that is of note. Please stay with us. In the 8 30 moment, bob woodward joins us on rage. This is bloomberg. So youre a small business, or a big one. You were thriving, but then. Oh. Ah. Okay. Plan, pivot. How do you bounce back . You dont, you bounce forward, with serious and reliable internet. Powered by the largest gig Speed Network in america. But is it secure . Sure its secure. And even if the power goes down, your connection doesnt. So how do i do this . You dont do this. We do this, together. Bounce forward, with comcast business. Tom good morning, everyone. With us is howard ward. With decades of experience on the excesses and value of the equity markets. We have been talking technology and particularly apple. There are different stories but what i find fascinating is amazon. The earnings consistency. The cash generation of apple as well. Compare and contrast amazon and apple, or are they really two separate beasts . Howard they are two separate beasts. They happen to dominate their own little fields. In the case of amazon, they are the leader in ecommerce but also the leader in amazon web services, web hosting businesses. Apple dominates the highend of the Consumer Technology market. Whether you are talking laptops or iphones or electronic watches, apple owns the highend. With tremendous brand loyalty. No sense of losing that number one position. They are different. Peern is much more of a tech stock pure tech stock than apple is. Mario was there for the breakup of standard oil. Kelly wrist the breakup of these giant can we risk the breakup of these giant Tech Companies . Howard anything can happen but i would simply point out breaking up some of these companies doesnt necessarily result in a lower total valuation for the shareholder. It doesnt necessarily end up hurting the shareholder if it were to happen. I would put a low probability on that happening. With this congress anything can happen. I wouldnt be making Investment Decisions based on that assumption. I think is creating a buying opportunity and a number of stocks. In a number of stocks. Many bargains are names like facebook at 25 times next year, google at 26 times, microsoft at 32 times. Even amazon, the high earnings multiple was 23 times precash flow next year. Amazon is entering their stage of their lifecycle where there cash flow starting to grow at a very strong rate over the next several years. These are stocks that are very the parts ofe in the economy that mostly benefited from covid. Google because of some of their advertisingdriven business, but we have seen outstanding results from the others. You can throw netflix in there as well. That will be the priciest of the group. I will value that had 36 times next year. Subs worldwide, compared to comcast in the cable format and they have about 28 million subs. The scale is obviously with netflix. Over time their average cost of serving their marginal customer goes down and the average revenue goes up. They will get into a cash flow position and a couple of years. Because of covid the time they reach that precash flow period has been pulled forward. That is another one i think for a longterm investor over the next handful of years should be a very good performer. Are you expecting more u. S. China wars on tech . Could that be the ultimate thing that gets valuations down . If apple is somehow banned in certain parts of china and things like that . Howard the china situation is on a bad trend. To tensions with china seem get worse by the week. One thing apple would have Going Forward and so might starbucks and other u. S. Companies heavily involved in china is they employ a lot of people in china. That is important to the chinese government. Is there a redline the u. S. Can cross where china would go ahead and in some fashion sanction or recommend to the people they avoid those products . Yeah, that is possible. It looks like the demand for apple products in china is on the rebound right now. Lets hope it doesnt happen. I am concerned overall about the rising tension between the United States and china. Longer that is a problem. Longerterm, that is a problem. Francine breaking news out of the Prime Minister. He is giving a speech as we are talking at the university of exeter about plans to boost productivity and deal with covid, post covid, and how the country could build back better from the coronavirus. He is also speaking at education. Lets get to the bloomberg first word news. Cleveland,ight in President Trump and joe biden faceoff in the first president ial debate. A tiny faction of voters say it is likely to change their minds. Likely tohey are not be swayed by the debate. Only 3 say it is very likely. The global death count has climbed over one million. Actual fatalities could be almost double that. Ability to hide in with no sign the disease outrun measures to accurately quantify cases. A wildfire in northern californias wine country has tripled in size. It has forced thousands of evacuations and is threatening property in a reason devastated by fire three years ago. It has burned more than 36,000 acres. In hockey, the Tampa Bay Lightning won last night. Hey be the dallas stars 21 named the most valuable player of the playoffs. Global news, 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. This is bloomberg. Tom thanks so much. Bob woodward will be with us at the 8 00 hour. We will talk about compare and contrast across his 19 books over many decades. We get a wonderful briefing. This is incredibly welltimed. An hour with mahamed younis, they are editorinchief at gallup. Looking forward to speaking with him. Futures 2. Dow futures at 23. 97. L yield is. That does get my attention. Good morning. Ritika this is bloomberg surveillance. Coming up today, dan amar. This is bloomberg. Tom good morning, everyone. Interesting day for politics. Francine lacqua. The Prime Minister speaks right now, advancing the story on the pandemic in the united kingdom. We await tonights debate. I am thrilled to bring in the gallup editorinchief. They do things differently at gallup. Mahamed younis joins us. I love your work on the general mainstream. I would have suggested vice President Biden with mainstream, and donald trump went to victory not being generally mainstream. How does generally mainstream fit into tonights debate . Remember,e have to when you go back to the facts and the basics, any time there is an incumbent president the election is always about the performance of that president first and foremost. When you look at those historic comparisons, President Trump seems stuck at 42 approval. That is just shy of the lowest Approval Rating of president has seen in modern history t o to win reelection, who is president obama with 49 in 2012. Overall satisfaction is that a 20year low. The Economic Confidence index, americas attitude about the Economy Today in the future, is at 16. It dropped from a high of 40 before covid hit. The Wells Fargo Small Business index, the real economy, continues to plateau in the negative. When americans look at their personal lives, things remain very difficult, very tough. Those metrics dont look good for the president. Bee you said, what used to sort of mainstream or expected in previous cycles, i think this cycle has proven to be different. Tom what do they need to say tonight to sway the battleground states . I dont look at the national polls. Help me with the battleground state dynamics and what needs to be said or not said tonight. Mohamed one of the things that really needs to be hit hard today by both leaders is how will the government manage the various crises facing the country. We have asked the same country for 28 years, if the government should do more or less to solve the countrys problems. This is the First Time Ever a majority of americans actually set the government should be doing more to solve the countrys problems. We are at 54 . 56 of independents think the government should be doing more to solve the problems. When you think about the topics laid out for todays debate, the economy, the pandemic, race and violence in america, all are areas where americans expect the government to do more at a rate we have not seen really ever since we started asking the question. I think that will be the first topic on the minds of both the speakers and the audience. How are you going to turn this country around . Francine what do people identify as the biggest concern regarding if someone if the government has to fix the problem, what is the number one problem . Definitely we asked that question every month. Covid and the economy continued to be one in the same at this point. 19 sayive americans, racism and Race Relations are the number one problems facing the country. Acontinues to be high high we have not seen since the 1960s. A very close second will be the state of black america. Not just with policing but also with the wellbeing metrics. Black americans life evaluation is declined in the trump years. That will be an important topic of focus. Tom one think you have done is the engagement of the american public. Are we engaged in this election . What does it mean for turnout for both parties . Mohamed we have seen in the past few weeks americans focus on the election and political news in general. We have seen americans at a rate of six in 10 want to be able to vote by mail. We definitely see peoples attention shifting towards the election and a heightened interest in wanting to participate. See theingly, we dont same levels we saw in 2008 for critical groups like young people and others. The demographics of the turnout will be very key this time. Its also impossible to predict because of that mailin voting variable. We probably have never seen in modern times as Many Americans voting by mail, cannot necessarily on the day of the election than we have in the past. This election is exceptionally difficult to predict. Tom do people care how much a president pays in taxes . Mohamed thats a great question. Thatnk in another era would have been the october surprise. Its important to keep in mind critical part of the president s metrics on the beginnings is that the system is sort of rigged and smart americans get around the system. That narrative has a pull, but not with everyone and certainly 750 will have sticker shock to it. We should keep in mind, most americans have pretty much made up their mind. There are very few americans at this point that will be surprised on either side. I dont expect it to be a game changer for this election. Francine what is more important to americans . Policy or character . Mohamed it is certainly outcomes. If there is one think most americans expect, ironically, from the president and assess after their own personal approval is how the economy is doing. That tends to be the most important thing. Right after that is health care. When you think about what is happening with the economy and health care, in a normal election those of the most important topics. In this election they only take on a heightened importance. Those will be the key messages both campaigns will zero in on in the final weeks. Francine thank you so much, as always with some great insight. Mahamed younis, gallup editorinchief. We will have more on the debate and the election. Watch our live coverage continuing on bloomberg with our special coverage of the first president ial debate that begins tonight at 8 30 p. M. New york time. This is bloomberg. Ritika this is bloomberg surveillance. Firmte Security Software is having an ipo. Intel. To be a unit of in 2016, a majority the company went to tvg, valued at 4. 2 billion. Tesla will dig its own lithium in nevada for batteries. Electric car company is dropping a plan to buy a mining company. Elon musk said the company has mining rights to more than 10,000 acres in nevada. Thousands of workers at j. P. Morgans consumer unit can work from home a little longer. They have been told they dont they come back to the office until next year. Thats in contrast with their wall street operations. They have been ordered to come in to work. That is the latest Bloomberg Business flash. Francine as we continue to track the virus, bloomberg has developed a partnership with Johns Hopkins. They have been at the forefront of the International Response and we have everyday insight from experts. Today we are joined by andrew mertha, International ResearchCooperation Program director. Good morning to you. Are we underestimating a significant shift in the chinese economy because of covid . Andrew i think we might be. What we are seeing is china is doing a number of things to dig itself out of the hole that the whole world found itself in. One thing we are seeing is there is likely a doubling down on stateled versus marketled development. We are seeing stimulus not necessarily going to people for increased consumption but rather it is being channeled to larger infrastructure projects. We are seeing a rise of inequality that is leaving chinas 175 milli Migrant Workers vulnerable. Andre seeing cadres officials sent over the country to ensure if and when a second wave of covid, localities are ready to take on the challenges. Put a ratcheted down expectation of Economic Growth for the rest of the year. It looks to me like they are hunkering down for what might be challenging environment for the economy in china and globally. Francine is this because of the stimulus . The countrys decision to help Business Owners instead of workers will have longterm repercussions for china. Andrew thats right. Part of it is political in that is a constituency that is that matters and its concentrated in a way that is politically it has some kind of residence in the halls of leadership in beijing but also something is more directly measurable. It is the way things have been done for decades. It is hard to break recent habits. Toseems to me we are seeing some degree more of the same. Francine all eyes are on the president ial debate later today, this evening. Early tomorrow if you are in london. How much will china actually play into it . How will it sway the u. S. Election . Andrew nbc news had a pole that or be one in five undecided contested states really see china as a security threat. It is something that is substantively, all things equal, does not necessarily suck the air out of the room during the debate. It is a very salient political issue. That, for myope is expectation anyway, is that while President Trump is tough on china, that Vice President degreelso demonstrates a of toughness simply because china itself is digging in. One of the things xi jinping is good at, probably the best poker player that holds National Office in the world today. ,nsofar as he is bluffing President Biden, if elected, should avoid the same mistake his former boss barack obama did which is extended all the branch to china unilaterally. It and dug in and got tough when it would have been better for everybody if china had responded in kind. Francine thanks so much for joining us, andrew mertha. Check out the bloomberg for the latest information. Tune in every day for exclusive conversations with Johns Hopkins experts. The other story with china is the world most worlds most indebted there were liquidity fears that led to a lot of investors questioning what was happening with the developer. We saw the developers shares tumbling. Investors are still betting the company is too big to fail. Reporting assive it is concerned about this potential developer possibly facing a cash crunch. Up next, Jonathan Ferro and Lisa Abramowicz for more bloomberg surveillance. Worstcase scenario is a doubledip recession. It is not our base case, but it is worstcase. Investors expressing their views are starting to show more bearish sentiment. Rates maina verizon. That is an rates may never rise. That is entirely possible. The unemployment stats are everywhere. September has been a month of consolidation, and nothing october is going to be the same. It is going to be bumpy. This is bloomberg surveillance with tom keene, Jonathan Ferro, and Lisa Abramowicz. Jonathan from new york and london, for our audience worldwide, good morning, good morning. This is bloomberg surveillance , live on bloomberg tv and radio. Alongside tom keene and Lisa Abramowicz, im Jonathan Ferro. It is fight night in cleveland, ohio. The debate in about 14 hours time. Quite the spectacle lined up. 1960you go right back to when this world changed with tv and