Be expected to make some marks around the top of the hour some remarks around the top of the hour. Forward, march. Ladies and gentlemen, the , Speaker Nancy Pelosi of the United States house of representatives. Rep. Pelosi it is with profound sorrow and deep sympathy to the haveurg family that i the high honor to welcome Justice Ruth Bader ginsburg to of in state in the capitol the United States. May she rest in peace. Ladies and gentlemen, ms. Denise graves, accompanied by miss laura ward. That was house Speaker Nancy Pelosi giving a few remarks at the casket of ruth bader ginsburg. It is not the statuary hall at the u. S. Capitol as she is lying in state, the first woman in history to do so. There is an ongoing battle as to who will be filling the seat and how the senate will vote on that. For more, we want to bring in bloomberg reporter emily wilkins, congressional and government leadership reporter. Where is the conversation on who might replace Justice Ginsburg on capitol hill . Emily we are expecting trump to make his announcement around five a clock p. M. On saturday. The front runner who we have all heard about his Amy Coney Barrett. She has been previously vetted by the administration and strongly supported overturning roe v. Wade. Obviously, a lot of americans feel very strongly about antiabortion, and a number of them are also trump supporters. This is something that is very important to trumps base. Other names on the list include Barbara Lagoa from florida. She would be one of the first latina women to serve on the court. At this point, it doesnt like she has met with trump the same way that Amy Coney Barrett has. How far away or how close his Public Opinion to the views of those being vetted . Views there are lots of that is not just about abortion, although that is a case that a lot of people have their eyes on. You are right to point out that a majority of americans do support the right to have an abortion, there are also a lot of americans who feel very strongly. They might not be the majority, but they will come out and vote solely on the antiabortion candidate. This is a really big block of voters, and they are very strong on this one single issue. Alix all of this in the backdrop of President Trump alsod in the polls, you had a fox news poll that he is slipping in some swing states, walk me through that dynamic in the middle of a Supreme Court pick, what congress is all was while congress is also trying to move forward with some sort of stimulus. Emily there are sort of pros and cons either way. The question a lot of people have been asking is will they fill the seat before the november 3 election. There are definite advantages to that. Right now, they have the majority. They have the votes. They can get this nominee through. After the november 3 elections, there is a chance that Martha Mcsally from arizona could lose her seat, and that would allow the governor to replace her. That changes the numbers a little bit. On the other hand, we have seen plling that has seen that suggests the American People think that they should wait for the next president to confirm. It is very clear they have the votes to go forward now, and there is very strong interest in getting this done among republican leadership. Alix and maybe a little bit of give room in stimulus conversations. Emily wilkins, thank you very much. The reason why stimulus becomes so important is you have jp morgan and Goldman Sachs saying if we dont get stimulus, we will downgrade the growth forecast for the year. Goldman sachs specifically have their growth estimates at 3 . Ning us is youre typically the most bullish economist i can find out there. You agree that we see that lved if we dont get that stimulus . I think one thing we are seeing so far in september, consumers are still pretty flesh. Savings rates were still pretty high through august, and spending hasnt fallen off much yet. I do think we are going to see a sharp deceleration in growth in the first quarter, but we are coming off of such a huge youund in q3 that, mentioned goldman, they have their forecast from 6 to 3 , but 3 is going to be rounding error in terms of where q3 gdp comes out. Guy i am hearing some very high numbers. Around 35 , and the consensus has been steadily moving in that direction. But the rebound was faster and more vigorous than initially expected, so the numbers are definitely going to be pretty strong for q3. Alix you are definitely more of a glassful economist right now. I guess the question is why. You could look at it either way. Confidence is Still Holding up in the business community, but that could start rolling over. How do you make a successful gdp call without knowing the right path of vaccines . Stephen it is very tough right now to forecast the economy. As those at the fed have said, the course of the economy really depends mostly on the course of the virus. But i am optimistic that we will get a vaccine and or that the virus will tail off as we move into 2021. Instinct thatgut at some point along the way, it could be a year from now or two years, or even longer, but at some point we will pass this and get back to something approaching normal. Getting back to that prepandemic type of economy that we had. Guy what is your outlook for inflation . Stephen i think that is a big question. I think it could go either way. Im a little more concerned than the fed is that we could see a pickup in inflation, but i would say they would welcome that. They have made that very clear. So we may very well get above 2 inflation on a yearoveryear basis at some point later in 22 iyone, but i in 2021, but dont think the fed will respond very quickly to that. Alix what is going to make people spend . Stephen i think people want to spend. They are being constrained to some degree. What is going to give them the wherewithal to continue to spend, especially if we dont get the fiscal stimulus we talked about, is going to be continuing recovery in the labor market. People need to get their jobs back. We need to get the Unemployment Rate back down to a more normal level. As with growth, the recovery we have seen in the labor market has been faster and more vigorous than what i think people expected several months ago. The news so far has been good. Hopefully it will continue to track on a good path. What do you think of the current savings rate, and how much pentup demand using there is within it . Do you think people are going to be nervous to spend, or want to go out and do it . Stephen this has been the unique feature of this recession. Weve never seen this before, where personal income is higher than it would have been in the absence of the pandemic. That is a testament to the generosity of federal benefits, both the rebate checks as well as the very generous jobless benefits. Youhat starts to trail off, need to see a handoff to the labor market. But as of august, which is the last data we have, the savings rate was still very high. I think consumers do have a reservoir of funds to pull from, and that is i think why we are seeing, at least so far in september, the highfrequency data suggest that Consumer Spending is Still Holding up quite well. Was afor a moment, there narrative that europe was handling everything better, and that their labor laws were better, and they were going to come out of the pandemic better. How do you see that conversation developing as virus cases are rising, things are getting more urgent, whereas here, were still seeing some flareups, but so far looks contain . How do you model those two . Stephen for most of the summer, it felt like the u. S. Was the worst, handling at the worst, and now things have turned around a little bit. I think from the u. S. Standpoint , what we are seeing in terms of the virus is that we still have a high number of cases. Would say aperts high degree of spread, but hospitalizations have continued to tail off, and the people getting the virus are less subject to getting gravely ill. Thinkll bodes well, and i it bodes well for confidence Going Forward as i think, was we get a vaccine and as the economy continues to normalize, i do have a sense that people will be willing to get out and spend and do the things that they have been unwilling to do through most of 2020. Guy we are going to leave it there. Always appreciate your input. Stephen stanley of amherst pierpoint, thank you very much. A delayed u. S. Election result may be overdone, coating to Goldman Sachs. Its as investors will have enough information on Election Night to determine the likely victor. Going us now is colin moore, cumbia thread needle columbia threadneedle Investment Global cio. Do think it is newsworthy, but we believe we will have a good indication, maybe not on Election Night, but within five or six days, of where the verdict has gone. Alix how do you deal with that when you are looking at pretty aggressive options pricing within the equity market, and longerterm volatility throughout november and even december . Do you trade around that . What do you do . Colin we have gone the other way, of you have to almost ignore it. I recognize that those implied volatilities suggest some uncertainty, but i really dont think you can trade around it because trying to guess what the outcome would be is, to me, a mistake given all of the implications on taxation, etc. I thick it is far better to stick with the portfolio you believed in in the first place. Guy lets turn to a vaccine. When do i position my portfolio for the arrival of a vaccine if they are going to be an almost binary event . We get a candidate, we think around how they are going to work, or is this something i need to average into . Colin it is important to know when, but i also feel it is how money vaccines become available, and that affects potentially the number of people who could be vaccinated, and the willingness to take the vaccine, of course. Those to me are by far the bigger questions than the election itself, and they will 2021y determine how well works out economically, and therefore for the markets. So our base case is maybe emergency use late this year, but widespread use around the middle of 2021. We are assuming somewhere that 60 to 80 efficacy, but we understand is nowhere near 100 , and these vaccines never are a mind we are assuming maybe to vaccines will be available. Maybe two vaccines will be available. I think your previous speaker was talking about this pentup demand from the savings rate, a willingness to go out and spend. There has to be the confidence to do that, so you combine those together and end up with a pretty robust second half of 2021. Alix that obviously calls into question, what is priced in in terms of that individual sector . Barclays upgraded carnival, rilke mirror be in carnival, royal caribbean, all of those for the same point. Upside could be significant, like the companies arent going to go under basically. How are you playing that . Colin i was surprised at the willingness of people to get back outside again and get together. If we combine what you are saying about the cruise ships with maybe casinos and things, there seems to be greater willingness for people to do that than i had thought. Ut i think it is a core i dont know that they will get that marginal visitor, which helps a lot with the revenue. Clearly, there will need to be restrictions on the number of passengers because just how comfortable will people be crowding into a dining room, etc. . So i think they will be able to get up and get functional again, but i think it will be at reduced capacities compared to normal, and given some of the leverage, that is still a tricky situation to be in. Guy the virus is exploding again in europe. Does that worry you . Do i need to extrapolate that into the United States as well . Colin yes. We still believe there is too much opening ahead of the r number being low enough. In our projections, we did expect this initial kickback up in activity at the initial v, and that doesnt surprise us because there is pentup demand. We understand that was being unleashed. But then because we are really beginning to open up a little too early, and my opinion, because the reinfection rate can still be too high, that is why you end up in this elongated recovery, which i think will take us right through into 2022. So i think you will get the same effect in the u. S. I agree we are treating it better. Weve got better protocols now. But i still think we are going to see this rather slow recovery. There was some discussion a few minutes ago about the rate of q3 being very high recovery, and i agree with that, but i think you will be a big surprise in q4 when it slows down quite dramatically. But wel expect growth, expect growth globally to slow quite a lot in q4, and then q1 again. Alix where do you go for protection . What do you do . Colin that is a tricky one. The number of Asset Classes that really look attractive are pretty limited. They are not necessarily hugely overvalued, but not looking particularly attractive. I still prefer Ig Investment grade debt over equity in a lot of areas. I still think there is some room for attraction of spreads, where i think most equity markets, particularly the u. S. , is probably a little overvalued. Within the market, theres huge differences between those Growth Stocks and the rest. If i was trying to pick broadly, i think the equity market in europe versus the u. S. Is probably a little too high. My general preference toward ig and some selective equity markets come with maybe a little more emphasis on europe then weve had for most of the last 10 years. Guy how asymmetric is the risk in the bond market right now . Can yields go lower from here . People keep saying they cant, and yet they continue to do so. Theyve been locked in a reasonably tight range of late. What is the risk if you have a chunk of bonds in your 6040 . Colin if you are talking sovereign debt, the big question is can u. S. Yields trend toward zero or negative as well. Our contention is that they did thoughd to do that, even there will be this slow recovery. It will be recovery, and we dont need to go to negative rates. The quick question for us looking at credit is if you take a look at Investment Grade bonds, does the 10 year yield begin to back up a little bit in terms of yield . How much can credit spreads come down . The tradeoff we are making there is yields will go up because the economy is showing continued signs of recovery, and that will encourage spread to come down. But i wouldnt necessarily invest in straight rates and treasuries, but i think ig in europe and the u. S. Looks quite attractive. Alix really good to check with you to chat with you. Thank you so much. This is bloomberg. Alix diverging story between the u. S. And europe playing out today. Virus fear is in europe. In the u. S. , we are getting some traction. Euro is the weakest since july. Equities are down, their worst weekly drop in two months. All of that negative sentiment, and he really saw that in etf flows. U. S. Equities actually saw their biggest outflow ever, 20 i . 8 billion. Ever, 25. 8 billion. Im sorry, the third biggest outflow ever. Guy a lot of money going in, so i guess that was probably pretty fast money. Youve the thing here is got elevated levels of volatility, particularly around the election. Elevated volatility usually means wider spread. Weve been having a conversation throughout the first when he five minutes of this program, talking about the idea that may be that volatility spike we are getting is the kind of plateau around the election that may be overdone. That starts to come down on the vix curve. Maybe you actually see spreads tightening back up again, which would be fascinating. It is going to be interesting to see what this money does is it reverses back into the space. Alix especially as you see Investment Grade flows holding up, but if you dont have the spreads widening out materially, then why not go buy stocks . It is not going to change the game when you have significant financial repression coming from all central banks. Guy the idea that the fort hopefully you affect thats the idea is that the portfolio affect is what the idea that the portfolio affect is what they are trying to achieve, we have been hearing a lot of people talking about coming in and buying up european banks. European banks are having a pretty bad day today. Alix really bad. We will break that down in the next hour as well. This is bloomberg. You can go your own way go your own way your wireless. Your rules. Only Xfinity Mobile lets you choose shared data, unlimited or a mix of each. And switch anytime so you only pay for the data you need. Switch and save up to 400 a year on your wireless bill. With the carrier rated 1 in customer satisfaction. Call, click, or visit your local xfinity store today. If i could, baby id how can i, when you wont take it from me you can go your own way go your own way your wireless. Your rules. Only with Xfinity Mobile. Alix live from new york, im alix steel, with guy johnson in london. This is bloomberg surveillance. Three major event happening in d. C. Deal,s a major stimulus President Trump announcing his Supreme Court nominee, and the president refusing to agree to a peaceful transfer of power. The winner of a november 3 election will be inaugurated on january 20. There will be an orderly transition just as there has been every four years since 1792. Isnt,l because if there you potentially could see that wind up in the spring court, which makes President Trumps Supreme Court nominee even more important. Lets break all of that down with someone who can give us a low more detail. We welcome steven wermiel, American University law professor. He focuses on constitutional law. Does a couple of pieces to this. How does the election wind up in a constitutional crisis . What would that look like . Steven thank you for having me. The president i think is almost lawsuits inile which mailin ballots change the outcome from the tallies on election day of in person ballots. I think that is one of the things he is not committing to accepting. He has built up a whole case about how he thinks the absentee and mailin ballot process is filled with fraud. There doesnt seem to be any evidence to support that, but i think he will have a team of lawyers ready to sue in states where that outcome changes. So those cases will get fast andked in federal court federal appeals courts, and work their way up to the Supreme Court. That is just one example. Guy will this process be completed by january . Steven it has to be completed by january by law. The new congress has to be law,d on january 3, and by i believe has to certify the results of the election, i think it is january 6. And the president , by law, is inaugurated on january 20. So one way or the other, Court Decisions have to get resolved and the process has to be done. Alix which then makes the Supreme Court justice pick, as if it could be, even more important. There are two ways i am thinking about it. One, who is the likely nominee . And how dogmatic is that individual . Many times, Supreme Court justices are labeled as right or left, but their decisions are much more nuanced. Steven you are right. It is hard to imagine anything would drive the stakes here even higher than this already extremely volatile Supreme Court fight, but how this person might participate in decisions on the election obviously is a big part of this. Runners, the leading candidate seems to be Amy Coney Barrett, who is a judge on the u. S. Court of appeals in chicago. She is a notre dame law professor, very conservative, very highly regarded in conservative circles. She has been a very successful professor, wellliked by her colleagues and students. But again, very conservative on a number of issues. The other leading candidate seems to be Barbara Lagoa, a judge on the 11th circuit, which is based in atlanta, but she sits in miami. That seems to be more of a politically driven choice, if that is the way it goes, because they feel she would help President Trump with the cubanamerican and hispanic vote in florida, and may other parts of the country. How they would vote in an election case is really hard to tell. We dont have much track record for that. Court stray can the from Public Opinion for it loses its legitimacy opinion before it loses its legitimacy . Steven im afraid we might be about to find out. I think the court is probably on the verge of getting perhaps to be the most conservative in over a century, going all the way 1890s,the 1880s and and i think that wiley majority of the senate will confirm President Trumps nominee, the court may be becoming more conservative than the country is as a whole. We worry about the credibility of the court and how that plays out, but we have a long tradition in this country of following the courts decisions, even when we critique them and criticize them, so it remains to be seen whether this really challenges that credibility. I think there is some risk there , but it is a little bit too soon to tell how that will play out. Alix if we could round out the conversation with more nittygritty, i think we will see bear Market Participants on november 4 looking on a statebystate basis of what lawsuits are there, what are they contested issues, how voting actually went, and we are going to need help to do that. When you take a look at North Carolina, for example, where you are already seeing boating voting, seeing and black voters are seeing Something Like 4 of their mailin ballots rejected, how are states changing the rules here . Steven what you are describing is the other side of the litigation, which is there will byost certainly be lawsuits democrats and Voting Rights groups in North Carolina and other parts of the country that say that the way ballots were being excluded and thrown out violated the rights of voters and was done in an unfair way. It is just going to be a very bitterly contested set of cases, i think, after november 3. The one thing that might blunt that somewhat would be a landslide outcome one way or the other, which might make the seem lessthe lawsuits likely to make a difference. But whether that will happen or not remains to be seen. I think it is too late for states to change their laws now to do anything that will be specifically useful for the november 3 election. A number of states have opted to allow widespread mailin ballots. More than the normal number. But every time that happens, that is going to prompt lawsuits by the republicans contesting the legitimacy of that. So im afraid to say i think we are in a mess, and we will certainly end up in the courts, and we will have to see how that plays out. Guy professor, we are going to leave it there. Thank you very much for your input. Steven wermiel, American UniversityWashington College of law professor. The u. K. Putting london on its watchlist today of potential pandemic hotspots. On the virusmore resurgence in europe. This is bloomberg. Ritika this is bloomberg markets. Coming up on balance of power, we will hear from aflcio at 12 30 p. M. In new york, 5 30 p. M. London. This is bloomberg. On the bloomberg first word news now. Russian president Vladimir Putin is calling for an agreement with the United States to promise not to engage in cyber meddling in each others elections and internal affairs, but u. S. Officials say the kremlin is already trying to interfere in novembers president ial election. Bloomberg has learned that russian officials are growing increasing the rate about the prospect of a joe biden presidency, and what that would mean for sensitive issues including nuclear arms. China is hoping to produce more than one billion doses of Coronavirus Vaccine next year. That follows an aggressive Government Support program for the construction of new factories. China has 11 vaccine candidates in human trials. True of them are currently in the final trial. Even the British Royal family isnt immune to the effects of the coronavirus pandemic. Palace says Queen Elizabeth and her family are facing a 45 million hit from the pandemic, partly due to a shortage of tourists. Buckingham palace has already introduced a staff pay freeze and a halt to hiring. Officials have said buckingham s aging infrastructure is at risk of a catastrophic failure if it is not replaced. Greta thunberg is back. Joined protesters outside of Swedish Parliament to kick off a day of socially distanced climate protests. Tos invited to speak leaders at the annual World Economic forum in davos. Global news 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. I ritika gupta. This is bloomberg. London facing another lockdown after reporting 620 new covid19 cases on thursday. The total number of cases in the u. K. Topping 6600, the highest number in a single day since the start of the pandemic. Joining us for more is dr. Ashish jha, Brown University school of Public Health dean. Thank you for your time today. What does europe need to do to control the virus . It is spreading and spreading fast, not only of u. K. Covered but in the u. K. , but in france and spain. The measures boating the measures being put in place are being called lockdown like. . S that enough thing is we good know more than we did, so we dont have to lockdown everything, but we do have to close indoor gatherings, restaurants and bars. We do have to make sure people are wearing masks, and we do need to push on getting more testing out there to identify cases in transmission. If they do these things, i do think they can get those outbreaks under control. Alix where have they been falling short . Dr. Jha i think they have been too slow to act. Much of the Hospitality Industry in france, for instance, remains open. I know they are closing things in versailles, but when you have our gel breaks, you cant really afford to have Indoor Dining and bars open at all because they are very conducive to spreading the virus. I think they have been too slow and not being aggressive. Guy we are now seeing pushback in marseille, coming from small businesses, restaurateurs, etc. Pushing back very strongly. Youre seeing it elsewhere as well, certainly in madrid, here in the u. K. Do you think a compliant public is willing to deal with the new restrictions that are coming into place . Dr. Jha this is all about leadership and communication, and about helping people understand that you can either act now or, if you choose not to act, or if you are not compliant, things will get worse , hospitals will get overwhelmed, and then you have to shut down a much larger part of the economy. So theres no way out of it. We are in the middle of a pandemic. Cant just will your way through this. There are control measures that have to be implanted. Public policy leaders, government leaders, i dont become done a good enough job communicating is at stake here. Alix when you took a look at what is happening in europe, are there areas basically, it takes me back to march, where we saw all of the rises in europe, and it was like, no, we will be ok. Six weeks later, it hit the u. S. Really hard. Is that our fate, too . Dr. Jha america has had a bit of a different trajectory because we never quite locked surge. And then we had thsu bui ink the stakes in the u. S. , like new york, massachusetts, that have followed the european pattern and think the pandemic is behind us and that we can move on, i think europe is a very important lesson that if you let your foot off the brake, the virus reemerges, and if you dont act quickly, it can get very bad very quickly. Guy i spoke to the ceo of lufthansa earlier on. He is about to start trialing rapid antigen test. He think that is the route to reopening north atlantic travel routes. Do you agree that will be possible if we can get Rapid Testing . Where else can we apply Rapid Testing that will maybe allow us to track a different way of dealing with the second round . Dr. Jha i have been pushing for that kind of Rapid Testing really since march or april. I think it is great. I think it is great that of tonda is doing it. It. Hat lufthansa is doing even with Rapid Testing, it may not be enough, but it is still a really powerful tool. What wend issue with are seeing now come professional sports has them, the white house has them. They have them for Business Class passengers. And yet, Public Schools do not have them. Nursing homes do not have them. It is creating this divide that isaac is going to cause a lot of social upheaval. Weve got to be thoughtful about how we deploy these. There are many places that can use them. Alix is that the framework for how we are going to deal with the vaccine . Dr. Jha i think it is going to be a real problem if what happens with the vaccine is business travelers and wellconnected people get them first, i think youre going to see a lot of people very angry. You are going to see real political costs of that. I dont think that is how we should do it. We should do it based on risk, based on who needs it first. But i am worried that the way we are dealing with testing, making it essentially a private endeavor and not a public good, if we play that out with the vaccine, it is going to cause a lot of problemss. Guy what is your assessment of the ability of companies to rollout testing in a big way with these rapid tests . They cost seven euros each. If it is that kind ofs cost structure we are dealing with, surely there is something that ithave, if we can, we made massive effort to scale it with an earlier on. If we can scale this process, what impact would that have . Dr. Jha it would have a profound impact. This has essentially been my argument at least since may. It we couldve had the u. S. Government really way in, use the defense production act, put in resources, help these companies scale up, we couldve had schools open, businesses open, restaurants actually be safe because if you could get a rapid test and know that you are negative, it would make it much easier. We havent done any of that. We have sort of let the market trickle along. The market has made progress. It wouldve been really hopeful to have the government weigh in and be useful as a source of both Additional Capital and additional supplychain material to help Companies Feel this up faster. Alix you definitely dont want to do a nasal test before you go Indoor Dining. So if the government is not going to do that, where do we get it . How quickly can we get it . Dr. Jha markets are efficient, but they cant ramp up as quickly as we need. This is why we need more government resources. I think we will get to millions of tests a day by the end of the year, but those are all mostly spoken for. We will not be able to use them in schools. We will not be able to use them for essential workers. Unfortunately, i dont think that a lot of the benefits of those rapid tests will be widely available to the market people until probably sometime in 2021. Alix thank you so much. Great to catch up with you. Great perspective. Still ahead, gold sitting right now at a 100 Day Moving Average as it continues to decline. Thank god its friday. Its coming up next in todays futures in focus. This is bloomberg. Ritika it is time for the Bloomberg Business flash, a look at some of the biggest is the stories in the news right now. Some of wall streets biggest hedge funds are opting to keep their workers home into 2020 one. Companies like j. P. Morgan chase and citigroup are ramping up attendance at their offices. Staff at bridgewater associates, de shaw are unlikely to be back until next year. Thanks often have their own buildings, but hedge funds usually work in shared locations with less control over how the lobby and elevators are managed. U. S. Orders for durable goods increased in august at a slower pace than expected. The Commerce Department says bookings for durable goods or items meant to last at least three years rose 4 from the. Rior month they were restrained by declines in orders for cars and military equipment. In the western u. S. , many cant find face masks to make it easier to breathe. The coronavirus pandemic decimated supply, and stores have had a hard time sourcing in 95 masks since march. Fires marked the beginning of one of the worst wildfire seasons in history. That is your latest business flash. Alix thanks so much. We are going to take a look at gold, sitting right around its 100 Day Moving Average. You get dollar strength, i one point today hit its lowest levels since late july. Joining us now, scott bauer, prosper trading academies ceo. Longerterm, i think it is a buy here. It has been lockstep inverted to how the dollar has moved over the last few months. Uncertainty so much headed our way over the next 5, 6 weeks leading up to the election. Furtherthat, and this gold price weakness is possible, but these uncertainties are. Ikely to intensify going to be very bullish for gold. Guy silver has come down massively. Is that a buy as well . Scott i think silver got way ahead of itself as the commodity space rallied. It was kind of a catch up to the gold market. I dont know if it is as much of because when is the economy is picking up, it is that industrial matter that industrial metal, and i am not sure that we are seeing that. People are singing up things may get worse before they get better. Im not so sure that silver has the same fundamental backing that gold would over the next four to six weeks. Alix what is the upside potential, short and longterm, for both . Scott shortterm gold, i think we can recapture that 1950 level over the next few weeks, especially if the dollar starts to weaken a little bit. Longerterm, i think 2000 plus is certainly in the cards. Guy how do i trade gold around the vaccine . Scott very difficult he, and very risk defined. If a vaccine happens, that is going to be a wonderful thing for many reasons. That probably hurts gold. However, i dont see that happening up until the election time. So longerterm, maybe you get short gold if it rallies back to that level. But doing something based on the vaccine, that is a difficult trade to make. There are so many other risk headlines ahead of us before a vaccine is going to happen. I think you really have to be focused shortterm. But longerterm, when we get a vaccine, that is probably bearish for gold. Guy we are going to leave it there. Greatly appreciate your time. Scott bauer joining us on what is happening with gold. European equities generally down as we head towards the end of trading here. London the one exception. Alan ruskin, Deutsche Bank chief International Strategist is going to be joining us next. Looking forward to that conversation. This is bloomberg. Guy live from london, with alix in new york. We are counting you down to the european close on bloomberg surveillance on bloomberg markets. Blended being added to the coronavirus watchlist. France has 16,000 daily new infections. The Spanish Government asking madrid to tighten its restrictions. European stocks under pressure, with the exception of london. We are sliding into the weekend. The euro stoxx 600 banks index heading an intraday record low. s ceo tells me he expects Rapid Testing at airports to allow longhaul flights by yearend. We will hear from him later in the program. Lets show you what is happening. The stoxx 600 is down by 0. 6