And lisa abramowicz, im jonathan ferro. Is one of the worst charts in the world. With the Stoxx Bank Index hitting a record low, you wonder where that folds into the system. Jonathan theres a line i remember from the former ecb president mario draghi, when he turned around and said rates have to be lower and out to be higher in the future. It was 2014. They just went negative. They are still there. Will we generate an economic recovery on the continent that leads to higher Interest Rates . The answer right now is not any soon. Tom bring up that chart. It is really an elegant chart. This is the thing that we were talking about. It is the xaxis of all of this. Whether it is the european back malaise pushing back 12 years, even 14 years, it is the duration of these agonies we have to focus on. Jonathan weve just never recovered. This week, the equity benchmark , the daxurt, germany since then, we are down, we are down almost 6 . Tom how do you measure the mystery of what is going on and what . Going on in washington . Jonathan weve got it on about credit. This week, we had a change. I think we had about 40 basis points spread widening in highyield. Just some cracks emerging. Lisa the biggest highyield bond etfs saw the most drawn since the february turmoil, raising a question about what this signals ahead. Takens is just froth off the top, or a material shift given that we dont have another round of fiscal support in the offing, and we are getting a resurgence in virus cases. Jonathan and what are you getting in the treasury market . A move lower of just a single basis point on the 10 year yield. Isnt that a story . Not much of one in the sovereign debt market right now. Lisa we are looking at the data to try to understand what the next leg will be in terms of on fields, as well as economic coverage as economic recovery. 1 00 p. M. , the bakers hughes u. S. Rig count. In some ways, this is a gauge of mobility. President york fed williams speaking to a group in rochester about the prospects of entering the labor market at this incredibly tenuous time. This to me as one of the most Untold Stories of this entire recession, which is if you are a College Graduate graduating from high school, what is your prospect given that entrylevel jobs largely been eradicated from a lot of the sectors that were traditional hirers . Jonathan couldnt agree more. Lets get straight to the price action. Things picking up. Equities breaking down on the s p 500. We head towards a full straight week of losses. 0. 8 . , in Foreign Exchange the story of , stronger dollar, the strongest going all the way back to spring. 1. 20 wasnt so long ago. Now we are nowhere near it. Tom also, swiss franc goes weaker. Swissie ate euro a handle that is really profound. Turkey got their act together and stunned experts with a substantial Interest Rate increase yesterday, so turkish lira finally stronger. Jonathan lets get the conversation started with amy wu silverman, Rbc Capital Markets equity derivatives strategist. Fantastic to catch up with you. This market is not too concerned about october or november. Very preoccupied with december. Why, amy . Amy good morning. December seems to be the focus. Part of it is there is this december 14 deadline, with the state electors are supposed to submit their ballots. Obviously the conversation has gone on for quite a while that we are going to have a contested election, where the mechanics matter a lot. One nuance i would point to is this is very true for s p and vicks, which have been present s p and vix, which have been present a higher volatility for longer. This is not true in the russell. That is prettyk interesting because the market has been so much driven by this tech versus value trade that is not being reflected in those industries. In those indices. Play in big, or is it just another small factor . Amy we sort of saw the market react to some of the beta that came out, as well as health comments. If i could add a third layer to that, there have obviously been substantial option dynamics at august, and even earlier, referring to the softbank trade, as well as the retail option buying. The third sector that i see in play is also that i see this options dynamic we referred to as gamma. We saw that exacerbate the move, and we are seeing it exacerbate the move down. In mainly tech names, but as goes tech, as goes the market because of the heavy weighting it has had in the market in recent times. Lisa you talk about how 2020 volatility has largely been focused on what you call the man stoxx. Do they potentially suffer man stocks. Do they potentially suffer losses, or just underperform to the rest of the index . Amy so far, it has been very resilient. One key point that we look at two kind of look as a litmus test to that answer is how option call prices weigh over option prices. Those have all been inverted throughout the entire summer. We now start to see that change, and particular in the faang man names. It makes me think that if there is a reversion, it will come hard. Tom very simply here, are we seeing a breakdown of the bull market . Are you talking intermediate bear or outright bear . Amy from our perspective, when we look at how the options went from complete exuberance to now back to average levels, the investors expressing their views are starting to show more bearish sentiment. That is obviously on a very shortterm basis, so everything will look at in terms of the option prices are always one months to three months. But if you look at those, we went from peak exuberance to historical relationships in terms of how exuberant they are, to now even slightly bearish. As we headed to an election and we get to focus more on index trades as opposed to single stock trades, i can see that turning us into an environment where people are much more focused on hedging and focused on the downside risk. Jonathan amy, great to catch up, especially this morning. Amy wu silverman as we break down just a little bit. Process that worldwide, as we get you. For the opening bell in new york , equities breakdown 25, 26 points, down 0. 8 . Not Much Movement in the bond market, but that is not use but that is not news for you. Eurodollarrket, 1. 1639. The underperformance is very real. The character and catalyst of this selloff is so different to what we saw in the previous three weeks, when it was about a tech shakeout and basically nothing else. This is about the fundamentals now. The outlook for the economy in europe, the restrictions around the economy because of the virus, and the character of the selloff is no longer just about tech. That is a shift this week, and i would say it has dominated the conversations ive had all through the trading week. Tom no question about it. To triangulate that for you, dxy off to new strength. This is the major weighting of currencies. Is bloomberg dollar index not yet out to record strength. You do eurodollar as your data check. Eurodollar really going to test those lows of two or three days ago. Jonathan a 1. 16 handle right now. I have to point out, you and i have had this discussion about how consumers might disengage. How would they respond not just to policies how would he respond to this policies . Already, consumers starting to ration items in the way they did in spring of this year. I dont think anybody should be adding panic to the situation. The government have been very clear themselves that the measures announced this week are nothing like the measures announced in spring of this year. I think the problem right now is that many people sit here, even with calm, collected heads, and believe the restrictions in ousted this week are just restrictions announced this week are just the start. From new york and london this morning, this is bloomberg surveillance, live on bloomberg tv and radio. The first word news, im ritika gupta. Paris police have arrested one person after a knife attack that left four people wounded. It happened near the former offices of satirical newspaper charlie hebdo, where islamic extremists killed 15 people in 2015. Police arent sure whether todays attack is related. London police have launched a Murder Investigation after a Police Officer was shot and killed inside a Police Station today. Croydondent happened in , south of the city. The suspect was shot and is in critical condition. It is rare for Police Officers to be shot and killed in the u. K. , which has strict firearms loss. The last Police Officer killed in the line of duty was constable keith palmer, who was stabbed to death in 2015 during an attack outside parliament. Supreme Court JusticeRuth Bader Ginsburg today becomes the first woman in American History to lie in state in the u. S. Capitol. She will be the first jewishamerican to lie in state, and just a sec. Up in Court Justice. The first just the second supreme Court Justice. Thousands of people paid their respects. She died last week at the age of 87. Global news 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. Im ritika gupta. This is bloomberg. We continue to look at solutions, and as it relates to the restaurant and broader hospitality industries, we think those industries dont need more debt. What they need is Economic Relief because they are shut down as a result of covid. More ppp money targeted to businesses that have decreased revenues would be very important to saving jobs. Treasury secretary Steven Mnuchin there on the fiscal effort. Equity futures are breaking down , particularly in the last 60 minutes or so. We are off by 0. 75 . Break down on the dax by 1. 8 percent. On the cac 40, down by a similar amount. In italy, off by 1. 5 . 1. 1633, down 0. 3 . , this conversation around the fiscal effort is absolutely bizarre. Secretary mnuchin said if the democrats are willing to sit down, im willing to sit down. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi said we are ready for negotiation. Then House Democrats are coming out with a 2. 4 trillion package. I am not sure what kind of negotiation that is. Tom well, it is a negotiation of desperation. Right now we are going to put some focus on it. Kevin cirilli knows that every vote matters. It was 8000 votes in the Third District of iowa that led to a massive upset of david young, the republican. Did i hear the knocking on the door yesterday of the speakers chambers as the congressman from iowa said wake up, lets go . Kevin i think you did. Thats precisely why democrats likely next week are going to pass this 2. 4 trillion fiscal support bill. It gives democrats an opportunity to say that they have lowered by 1 trillion their threshold, and that they are willing to have some type of negotiations. I was paying attention to senator ben cardin from maryland. He said that realistically, it is going to be unlikely that there be any type of deal before the election. 11, got my i on december when the continuing resolution expires, the shortterm resolution. So there is a fiscal cliff, so to speak, coming up in december. That is likely going to provide a lot of momentum for their potentially to be another round of stimulus because remember, the Airline Relief come the student debt relief, the Small Business relief, the energy sector, to some extent, all of those other programs that have been left over from this stimulus that people are still utilizing, that is set to end at the end of the calendar year. Tom conor lamb of the 18th the district pennsylvania, 1000 votes, maybe 2000 votes. How many are out there . Kevin that is where the economic conversation and the fiscal conversation really is on a collision course with the Supreme Court, as well as, to a lesser extent, health care and other issues that are going to come up in cleveland on tuesday at the president ial debate because for conor lamb, the economy in his district is obviously something that is front and center of many of the swing voters who elected him into office. But democrats are also trying to mobilize here. I would note very quickly that after the confirmation of Justice Brett kavanaugh, republicans picked up seats in. The senate meanwhile picked up seats in the senate. Meanwhile, democrats picked up seats in the house. Strategists feel that a Supreme Court pick helps them in the senate. Obviously it is a junkball in the house a jump ball in the house. Lisa our job is to try to distill what matters markets. Youre so good at that, and that is why we keep harping on the fiscal support package that is or isnt forthcoming. We are talking about this 2. 4 billion dollar plan that democrats put out. It is a democrats only plan, far away from the demands of most republicans. It is dead in the water, isnt it . Kevin before the election, yes. I dont like doing the estimates that the analysts do, but i would say theres about a 20 chance that there be fiscal support before november 3. Those chances dramatically increase above 50 to get Fiscal Relief by the end of the year, sometime after the noise from the president ial election settles, and before and around the timing of december 11. Even beyond that, in the First Quarter of next calendar year, based upon the conversations ive had with the Biden Campaign , as well as sources in the Republican Party, that likely around march, there would be another conversation a brown fiscal support conversation around fiscal support. The noise is loud coming from the central bank. When you hear the top officials at the Federal Reserve saying the needs to be more Fiscal Relief, that catches the attention of people like senator pat toomey, a republican from pennsylvania who was very fiscally conservative, but also could be the next chairman of the banking committee. I think those types of republicans are definitely paying attention. Congress and french hill that we talk too frequently as well, they understand the needs to be some more Fiscal Relief. Theyve just got to get through the nosy season between now and november 3. Lisa the other noise is and very trump saying strongly saying they commit to a peaceful transfer of power should it come to that. How big is this fissure right now . Kevin i was thinking about this when i was on a run yesterday because this reminds me so much of when president trump, then candidate trump, threatened to run as a thirdparty candidate should the Republican Party not fully support him in what was a very crowded 2016 president ial field. What you are seeing now i think is an opening argument, so to speak, and a preparation of sorts for republicans, as well as for the president coalition around the countrys the president s coalition around the country, that this could potentially be a very litigated election process, and both of the campaigns are preparing for a legal battle that could end up all the way to the Supreme Court. Tomorrow in the 5 00 p. M. Eastern hour, the president is set to name who you would see who he would like to see replacer Ruth Bader Ginsburg. Jonathan that is how tom and i used to prep for this show as well, go on a run together through central park. We would pop out together, go for a quick run. Get across the road, pull out two cigars and sit down. [laughter] and then we would stumble back into the building and pretend we got some exercise. Kevin, great to catch up. Get a bit of water, pour it over his head. Just pretend hes sweating a bit. Keene, does she still listened to this . Tom no, shes getting ready for kelly and whats his name. Jonathan equity futures breaking down a little bit on the s p 500, heading towards a fourth week of losses on the s p. Its a killer, especially when you are about halfway through that cigar. In the bond market, 0. 6 on tens. This is bloomberg. Jonathan from new york and london, this is bloomberg surveillance, live on bloomberg tv and radio this is bloomberg surveillance, live on bloomberg tv and radio. Alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, im jonathan ferro. S p, we are down zero. 7 four weeks of losses we are down 0. 7 . Four weeks of losses on the s p. Int a six basis point move 10 year. What role does treasuries have in your portfolio . In Foreign Exchange, the euro coviding the concern with restrictions coming through in places like the United Kingdom this week. Eurodollar coming down 0. 3 . Ago0 feels like a lifetime for Foreign Exchange traders right now. Tom i love what you say about portfolio construction. Into q4, that is going to be the huge story. Intangibles, tangibles, real estate whatever. I dont know how you construct a portfolio without a bond anchor to dampen equity vol. Right now, with dow futures 221, this is a joy. Bennenbroook nick ek 10 years ago was fx strategist of the year. It was a big deal. He got a red ferrari and looked great in new zealand. Then he did it the next year. That is absolutely impossible. Just ordinary extraordinary. Nick, i want you to give me a dollar vector right now. Ive got dxy out to new recovery strength this morning. Are you still looking for a weaker dollar . Nick over time, for sure. With respect to what that means we are global economy, going to get umps along the road, and we are clearly seeing a huge supply in the equity markets, but so long as we are on track for recovery, and we eventually get hold of the vaccine and covid parts, we would expect he weaker dollar. Tom we are going to work on the audio, but i look at the dollar dynamics we see right now on an international basis. Do you see tepid economic growth, or can it be china to the rescue . Nick we are looking at 6 gdp growth. I wouldnt let tepid. China for sure is leading the way. I think theres a silver lining. If growth does disappoint, theres always the chance that policy makers, including the Federal Reserve, could ease policy further, especially with this new approach that they have. We do think Monetary Policy, fiscal policy will remain supportive and should help equity markets stabilize. Jonathan it is 2020, and that means we have some technical issues establishing a connection with our guest. We are going to reestablish that connection. But isnt that the truth, that we have difficulties all around the functioning of programs like this, how people get back into business, and i think this week was a real change to hear the Prime Minister of the u. K. Talk about six months, six more months. That was a real wakeup call for most of europe, not just the United Kingdom. Tom no question about it. You also fold into that the trade tensions, visible. We dont know what the election outcome is going to be, but you really wonder when you fold in unilateral Decision Making in trade how that folds into the pandemic, and lets be optimistic, a pandemic recovery. With that, do you get unit regrowth in trade, forgetting about what price dynamics do . Right now it is almost like volumes of trade is the issue, and so much of that is scarcity. It is going to be interesting to see. We are seeing scarcity, no question about that, in the u. S. Jonathan i think certain politicians and governments feel emboldened now to pull back and work for supply chains to shift them even more because they found themselves not at the mercy, but highly dependent on one country for a whole variety of goods, specifically the farm industry, and that country with china. Think it was a lot of fuel for the argument that a lot of that needs to come home. Ive spoken to a lot of people who think there is a new industrial policy coming that will push those industries again. You can already start to hear it down in washington. Tom unless you get economic recovery, there is no question you are going to get that. I want to switch to your observation on portfolio construction. I dont think a lot of our viewers and listeners understand the dampening, the constructive dampening you get with a fixed income allocation. That mathematics is out the window with a nominal yield where it is, and the horrific real yield that we have. Jonathan lets make it really simple for a lot of people outside of the institutional world, and maybe they are just frequent listeners and watchers of this program. An equities breakdown, the bond market typically provides that offset for you. That support, that balance. Equities, 40 into the bond market. People are questioning that repeatedly because they believe, given where treasury yields are right now, there isnt enough downside to offer you that counterbalance, that protection in the portfolio. My question for the people that have the doubts about treasuries would be as follows. I understand in the last four weeks we havent picked up much of a bid, but i do remember a years ago, nine or 10 years ago having the same conversation around the bund market, and the german debt market carried on rallying. So i dont want to doubt the ability of the treasury market to rally too much, but certainly the price action of the last four weeks has backed up the argument that the support wont be there in the way it used to be. Tom theres no question about it. All you need to know is lisas world, highyield and ig is priced to perfection, and that leads to distortion and distorted signals. Lisa perhaps not. The dollar has actually been the ballast for the portfolio, even though the turmoil is stemming from the United States. Jonathan i would agree, and that is where people have been wrong. Theyve been right on the treasury market, the consensus view. Where they have been wrong, when things hit the fan, people by the u. S. Dollar. Nick is back with us. Lets build on that. So many people out there doubting the dollars role when things hit the fan. The timingng to be again . Nick i think so. Although we think the dollar will soften over time, there are a few technicalities we need to get through for the rest of this year. One is a pretty sizable correction we are seeing in the equity markets, and of course, there is some focus around the uniqueness of the president ial election coming up, and whether or not we will get a result on the night of the election or whether it will take a little while after that. I think all of that uncertainty is playing into this temporary strength, so although we do think the dollar softens over time, with think it will be stable, maybe even slightly stronger over the next several weeks, but we view that as a selling opportunity in the longer term. Lisa theres also a challenge to the narrative that took hold over the summer that the euro was offering a comparable offset , the idea that the fiscal union was getting more closely integrated. Is this narrative being challenged and turned on its head right now . Say perhaps market wise, yes. But i am still a believer in terms of the policy response of the European Central bank, and also the various governments. If you look at germany, france, italy, they have all instituted measures at the national level, and i think still the european wide rescue fund is going to be important over time. So for me, the policy fundamentals come up with Monetary Policy and fiscal policy are supportive overall of eurozone economic recovery, even with some of the disappointing economic figures we have seen from that region recently. Jonathan good to hear from you. Appreciate your patience this morning. Nnenbroek thereof wells fargo. The bank index over in europe, alltime lows. Intraday record low is what we kissed around about an. Hour ago i think the biggest about an hour ago. The big issue here, we have not generated a recovery good enough in europe to have higher Interest Rates since the financial crisis. Why would this time be any different, at a time when the Federal Reserve is indicating they wont be hiking rates out to 2024 . What hope does the Banking Sector have to turn things around in the way they couldnt in the previous years . Bank, he hastsche been heatedly against this experiment, it is an experiment in 12 years, make it 13 that we are coming up on. The bottom line is on the xaxis, it aint working. You see that in the book values of these banks. I would suggest if you had those european banks away from the society of europe, over in the more roughandtumble United States, it would have been a merger frenzy years ago. We just havent seen it. Jonathan we start to hear about it a little bit more. 2014, that is when rates went negative in europe at the ecb. They stayed there. I can only think of one central bank that went negative and got back out, and i think it was the riksbank. Once you go there, it is so difficult to get out. When you hear central bankers saying that rates have to be low now to be higher in the future, someone showing that is true outside of the United States because what we have seen from g10, it is difficult. Tom it is Creative Destruction and trying to ignore it. The chancellor of the exchequer really pushing towards some form of Creative Destruction. I am going to go back to a conversation i had with secretary of treasury geithner a million years ago about quarter to quarter, avoiding clearing the markets of zombie banks, zombie industrial countries, and zombie simulcasts on tv and radio. Jonathan is that what this is . [laughter] tom im selling it. Not today, with futures at 17. Jonathan futures bouncing back just a little bit, down 0. 5 on the s p. Worldwide, equities softer in the United States, bouncing back a little bit. Volatility, the whipsaw of the last 24 hours. We will continue to discuss it. Good morning. This is bloomberg. Ritika with the first word news, im ritika gupta. London has been named as an area of high concern, calling on them to abide by the rules set up by Prime MinisterBoris Johnson earlier this week. Those include working from home when possible and keeping to the rule of six. Leaders across europe are grappling with how to bring the coronavirus back under control. Paris police have arrested one person after a knife attack today left for people wounded. It happened near the former offices of satirical newspaper charlie hebdo, where islamic extremists killed 12 people into 15. A trial is currently underway in paris of people accused of helping the attackers. Police are not sure whether todays attack is related. Russian president Vladimir Putin is calling for an agreement with the United States to promise not to engage in cyber meddling in each others elections and internal affairs. But u. S. Officials say the crim one has already tried to interfere in novembers president to election. Bloomberg has learned russian officials are growing increasingly learned about the process increasing we worried about the prospect of a joe biden presidency and what that would mean for sensitive issues, including nuclear arms. Greta thunberg is back. She joined fellow demonstrators outside Swedish Parliament today to kick off a day of socially distant Global Climate protests. She began her solo protests in 2018 and students around the world began following her lead. Global news 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. Gupta. Ika this is bloomberg. Bloomberg surveillance this is bloomberg. Ultimately, this is a medical situation, a medical challenge for the economy, for the society , and hopefully for the equity market. Jonathan david coston there david kostin there of goldman sachs. We are counting you down to the opening bell, about one hour and 43 minutes away. A little bit of a bounce off of session lows on the s p 500, but a breakdown nevertheless, down 16 points and off by zero point 5 on the s p. The pain has been in europe through this week, thats for sure. I ams a chart of sterling looking at right now. Cable turning around a little bit, now unchanged on the day to 1. 2743. Noisep getting some good on the european side of things. I dont know what you think of this headline. The u. K. Had useful exchanges with the eu in recent weeks. That is coming from a government spokesman. Tom that headline could have been written six hours the day after i left the restaurant the day after brexit. That is the markets, and we will keep you a breadth. It is now time to go wonk because one of the great problems of this pandemic is simple, sometimes incorrect, sometimes accurate, but nevertheless simple explanations. Theres nothing simple about what the acclaimed university of is doing in microbiology. It has been decades of excellence, and sequestered at the university of washington is the fuller lab. We are thrilled to get truly one of the worlds experts on this alphabet soup of dna and rna and mrna Vaccine Research to join us this morning. Deborah fuller, thank you so much for rejoining us. What is the progress made at the fuller lab and at other labs in the last number of months . Dr. Fuller we have made a lot of progress in our vaccine candidate. We demonstrated success in preclinical studies and in animals, demonstrating that the vaccine is able to induce protective levels of antibody, and that vaccine is scheduled to enter into phase one Clinical Trials next month hopefully. In terms ofccines mrna vaccines, moderna has a phase 3 Clinical Trial still in progress, and they are anticipating to be able to look at initial results of that in terms of efficacy of the vaccine sometime in november. Tom we are miles beyond avon 1970s. E in the should we use the same timeline now for Vaccine Development that we used decades ago, or is there a new timeline that you can inform us on . Dr. Fuller the timeline has accelerated for development of a vaccine in this era of a pandemic, and that has been really accelerating due to basically overlapping the phase one Clinical Trials, so you are starting phase ii two before phase one finishes, and phase 3 before phase two finishes. What they are starting the mat is when they have enough data to show that they are meeting their criteria in terms of safety. Now that we are entering into phase three trials, the need to show safety, as well as a benchmark for efficacy. They are going to be looking at early points in terms of how many people have become infected. Have a ticker that goes on, and when they had 150 or 200 people infected in their phase 3 trial, they are going to look at the ,ata and analysis and determine do we have more people infected in the Placebo Group then we do in the vaccine group, and how many more . Is it 50 efficacious in this early look . And if they do, they may be going to the fda and potentially requesting emergency licensor of that vaccine. Lisa we do not have a vaccine, and probably will not get mass distribution of said vaccine until well into next year. In the meantime, was it a mistake to allow colleges and universities to reopen . Dr. Fuller i think that even when you take the most cautious measures in terms of wearing masks, handwashing and social distancing, i think it is very difficult among young people to adhere to all of those requirements. I think that colleges have done their best in terms of trying to conditions ande recommendations come but it is really left to the individuals as a group, as a population to adhere to those standards. And if they dont, this is how the virus spreads, by not adhering to those. Lisa everyone is getting tired of this. No one really was to keep distance and wear masks that are uncomfortable, though it is important to do so. You see people get more lacks around the city here. We are starting to see resurgence is a virus is in parts of new york city. London has engaged in further restrictions. Are we into think are we entering into a really substantial second or third wave in the next few months . Dr. Fuller i think we can. People are getting exhausted, but it is important that we have to hold the line with the weapons that we have to fight this virus, and that is masks and social distancing, and keep holding that. With the vaccine coming on, hopefully before the end of this year, that can help to accelerate shutting down the pandemic, but we are still going to have to maintain these practices. It is just something we are going to have to get used to and Work Together as a population to help basically it is like an alien invader, and we need to Work Together to be able to shut it down. Tom dr. Fuller, thank you so much. Deborah fuller, leading researcher at the Washington School of medicine. The dollar is really front and center for me. What a recovery. Some indices off to new highs, but others just buttressed right up there on dollar strength. Jonathan the story yesterday for me was just a massive turnaround we saw in a really small amount of time on the s p 500. What, ir, bounceback on have no idea. It was just the volatility. Remember the volatility of a few years ago . Its the story of a long time ago, and i am not sure when it comes back. Tom we just wonder, on the average, which is 19 to 20, and of 12, 12, 12, you wonder where that new level is. I am not quite sure. Jonathan lets get a snapshot of the market. We bounceback on the s p 500, 12. It gets better as the session grows older. We are down 0. 3 . Eurodollar off by 0. 3 . It is a weaker euro. Still a snooze in the bond market, 0. 66 yield on the 10 year. Could have said that every day this week, i think. From new york and london, this is bloomberg. Worst case scenario, there is a doubledip recession. It is not our base case, but it is the worst case an area. The treasury market is overbought if you consider the projected growth rate. All Central Banks can do is print money in the end. We know there are millions unemployed, but the unemployment cracks are everywhere. This is bloomberg keene,lance with tom jon ferro, and lisa abramowicz. Tom the quote of the week for