President trump aggressively denied the story, with, i believe, four sources cited early in the article. It is amazing how one story can shift a dialogue. Francine shift the dialogue, maybe, tom, but i dont know what impact it will have on the polls. Polls, it is one of the interesting conversations in an election year, banks realize they could be one of the most volatile moments in the markets, if you look at the states or whether there is a broader change of heart toward change of mind when it comes to that november election. H, brilliant on that yesterday, talking about the swing state polls as the thing to watch in september. Right now in new york city with our first word news is karina melcher Karina Mitchell. Karina republican the democrats have agreed on one thing secretary Steven Mnuchin and nancy pelosi are working to avoid a Government Shutdown before the election. Up a vital holding stopped spending bill clears the way for the government to stay in operation at the start of the new fiscal year. Meanwhile, President Trump has denied a magazine account that he disparaged americas war dead losers. According to the atlantic a, the president try to get out of a visit to the graves of American Marines killed in world war i in france. He reportedly said, why should i go to that cemetery . Losers. Led with the president calls the account a total lie. The suspect in a shooting of a white print rightwing been killed. He was a vocal supporter of the farleft antifa movement. Sawu. S. Labor market improvement in august, which answers further onsite gains are diminishing without the stimulus payment. The monthly jobs report is out at 8 30 a. M. New york time this morning. Economists are projecting an limit rates dropped below 10 for the First Time Since march. Global news, 24 hours a day, on quicktake,loomberg powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. I am Karina Mitchell. This is bloomberg. Francine . Tom . Tom karina, thanks. Equities, bonds, currencies, commodities. Other parts of the greater market not participating. Futures rebounding up 22, dell futures of 37. I am going to call that highs for the session. To 24, and then we blew out to 33 yesterday, 31. 52 right now on the vix. Quietrket shows a real since, perhaps waiting for the jobs report, francine. Francine yeah, tom, i think it is all about the jobs report, and it is also ahead of a holiday in the u. S. , of course, on monday, so we could see a bit more volume when it comes to european trade. Trade is more subdued maybe than last week. Investors holding off making trades before the jobs data and maybe before the u. S. Holiday weekend. European bank stocks actually rallied after news that two banks are exploring a 14 billion euro merger, tom. Tom the jobs report coming up into a half hours. Joining us now is Catherine Mann of citigroup, their global teeth economist, chief and she has codependency analysis of china in the United States and then proving at the oecd she can do Market Economics like nobody else. It is a rare abuse. Catherine mann joins us this morning. Lets go over the jobs report here. Lets go over the nuance of what we will observe at 8 30. Catherine well, you know, the question is, you know, how many people come back to work and how many people are coming back on the pandemic unemployment assistance program. The decomposition between those two programs i think is a very interesting one to pursue, because if you go off of one end onto another, you are not improving your job situation. I do think that is an important piece of information. Yesterday, thet Economic Policy institute, folks, when you take the better news of the unemployment claims and then your jobless claims, and then you add on the pandemic report, you really dont get much of a decline. Catherine mann, in the jobs report, we have always had the greenspanschairman on employment rate, and then the Unemployment Rate. What is the Unemployment Rate right now of the United States of america . Catherine well, you know, there are a lot of people on furlough, and one of the important questions Going Forward is how many of those furloughs turn into firing, because that will make the Unemployment Rates go even higher, and it is a situation which will affect peoples excitations and their consumption patterns. We have heard some announcements from some large hospitality and of course the airlines about going from furlough to firing. We have got Small Business arguing that, you know, if not more assistance, they are going to go under, so this jobs report is important, but i think, you know, in terms of valuations and so forth, we have got to look beyond just the what happened this week, what happened this the longerterm, and the longerterm is not looking good right now in terms of support for the function and therefore investment and growth in the u. S. Economy. Francine catherine, good morning from london. Are these jobs that are permanently lost, are they companies that are going bust, or are they Just Companies downsizing . Catherine well, on the Small Business side of things, you know, there is a lot of turnover and Small Business, that time iod between going bust and Small Business do go bust. Those jobs are lost to the time, and the time can be a very long time. At very low income levels as well. That is one of the problems here, people at the lower income levels, the ones who are always on the edge, are the ones who are carrying a particular burden this time around. For the furloughs to firing, that was, again, hospitality, airlines, those are still quite a bit at risk. I mean, airlines and only about 50 travel rates, and, you know, if you ask people, are you worried about going to a large group gathering, 85 to 90 still say yes, so that is not good for going to entertainment or going to, you know, the concert venues. That is hospitality. Francine when you look, catherine, at, you know, what happens the next three to four months, lets say the rate of are thens goes higher, winter months the crucial months . Catherine well, i mean, what is interesting right now is that winter months are coinciding with what many of the Vaccine Developers are saying are potentially very good months, for actually coming through with a vaccine, so they are balanced between, you know, the winter months with the regular flu and the vaccine. That is an interesting balance to consider. But i do come back always to how do consumers respond . You know, just because there is a vaccine, does that really make them think that, yes, i am going to go back and do things i used to do before . Certainly some seem to be perfectly happy to go out there and mingle and have fun and would go to the concert venues, would go to sporting events, but the older generations, it seems, much more concerned, and when it comes down to it, the old people have a lot more money than the young people do, and so that has implications of spending patterns. Tom Catherine Mann, linking in this jobs economy to aggregate demand and the greater sense of gdp, on the back end of the equation is the Catherine Mann netable, exports. It is not pretty right now. How large is the dampening impactof the clouds of the collapse of world trade going to be . Catherine next month, i would say trade is completely on the back foot, but our Early Warning indicator throughput index does indicate that there is some coming off of a bottom. Now, you know, i think we have to be very careful, because coming off of a bottom still means trade contraction of about 5 . Isl, trade contraction of 5 better than trade contraction of 15 , but it still represents a contraction. This is a very important ingredient not just for the United States but also for a lot of other countries around the world, and, so, you know, collectively, this trade contraction is something we are viewing is a very severe headwind to the global economy. It may improve a little bit, but, again, this notion of rebound is a very different word than recovery. Rebound just means to get back to where you used to be, and that was not a great place. We did not we have not made up any losses at this point. We are still not hold. Tom Catherine Mann, whole. Tom Catherine Mann, thank you so much. I want to address the codependencys of our international economics. Nationalkudlow, our economic structure, he will look at the codependency of the clinicals is and as he looks into todays clinical season as he looked into todays jobs report. Look for that with Jonathan Ferro in the 10 00 hour. This is bloomberg. Good morning. Francine this is bloomberg surveillance. Tom and francine from london and new york. Still with us, Catherine Mann, chief economist at citigroup. When you look at the World Economy right now, where do you see the most scoring, and how deep will that scoring actually carring, and how deep be . That scarring actually catherine one ofcatherine the important disconnects is the at which our own economist sadie the level countries get back to precovid level of ddp is maybe next year or 2022, but no one is talking about getting to the precovid level of unemployment for the precovid level of employment, and i think that disconnect between people thinking their economy from the measure of gdp is going to be coming back no one says that for unemployment, and that says that there is an extended period of time where we are going to have very high Unemployment Rates, and we know that the scarring from the Global Financial crisis, which is a whole lot like this in terms of the gdp dynamics. That scarring was particularly damaging to the younger generations, because they are the ones who are not getting the first job or are not getting the raise or are not getting an opportunity to develop into their careers. So, in some sense, the younger generations are the ones who are most scarred. It happened in the Global Financial crisis. I am concerned it is going to happen here as well. Francine could it be ugly . How does this differ from what happened in the financial crisis . We were in a much better place. Catherine well, i am not sure we are in a much better place. I mean, from a standpoint of banking, you know, the stability of the banking sector, yes, we are in a much better place, but in terms of where we are in unemployment, where we are in business investment, where we are in consumption, we are not in a better place. We have higher inequality, we have got lower productivity growth, so we are not actually in a better place. And of course one of the things that the Federal Reserve is trying to do through its policies is trying to avoid having a whole range of financial meltdowns, perhaps in what still isnto a very fragile recovery in a global economy, so, you know, i would say we are not in a better place right now. [laughs] is thetherine mann, codependency shattered . I just moved, and 98. 2 of the junk i bought was made in china. I think the rest of it was made in vietnam. With all this trade uproar, this administration, have we shattered our codependency . Catherine the trade relationship has changed dramatically, although the codependency, which back then, yourars ago i suppose furniture is 10 years old, i dont know that was with regard to goods. Now we have a codependency that is still there, and we are trying to rip it apart, with regard to technology and Information Technology and ai and those sorts of things. Very there still is a strong codependency between the u. S. And china on that, simply because of a lot of production being there, but also some of the higherlevel technologies. So of course the issues with regard to, you know, the Large Technology companies is the breaking apart, the efforts to break apart that relationship. Side, there isl the deeper thing on codependency with regard to financial flows, as china, as it has been added example, and, for up waiting the shares as they are expanding the ability of u. S. Companies, Financial Institutions to enter into their financial markets. So if anything, there is a deepening on the prospects of financial flows, even as, you know, we know that there are some pieces of legislation with regards to having china in certain kinds of portfolios, and of course some concerns with currency, countervailing duties, and some concerns with on the china side with purchase of treasury securities. Tom right. Just because of time, dr. Mann, i have got to get this in. It is so important. What is our best practice of technology codependency . What would you recommend is the best u. S. Practice with china . Catherine so i think the issue there has to be about full transparency about what is going on inside the box. That is necessary not only to assuage concerns about National Security, but it is also necessary for companies to be able to work together, so that has been a challenge, because, of course, inside the box is very proprietary, but there are standards setting bodies where it is the nerdy people, who do have the wherewithal to talk to each other about what is inside the box. And that is inside the algorithms. And i think that is the way we have to go. I think that is the way we should go in order to have a deep relationship on the Technology Side and of course bringing in other economies, europe, australia, etc. And japan. But i dont hold out hope that that will happen. That would be best, but i dont hold out hope that that will happen. Francine catherine, when you look at your projections, you know, in terms of your gdp inflation forecast, how do you model a possible second lockdown . Livednd lockdown likely like we lived in march, april, in the western world, something we are discounting at the moment. Catherine i think we are not going to have a second lockdown. Europe,countries in japan, so forth, these are countries that have been able to target efforts to problem areas. In the United States, there is simply not going to be a whole scale lockdown, the whole states will take a much stronger role choosing the strategies that is seem to be the most appropriate one for them and have a much lighter hand because of the economic damage would be too great. And also, there is a terminus hope that, you know, the vaccine is around the corner. Tom dr. Mann, thank you so much for the brief on the American Labor economy and of course breaking work on china. She is chief economist with citigroup. Coming up as well, someone who can keep up with dr. Mann, someone down at new york university, the laureate paul romer, fascinating on the changes in our world, and the 10 00 hour. It is jobs day. Stay with us until 8 30. This is bloomberg. Karina this is bloomberg surveillance. I am karina. Mitchell with the Bloomberg Business flash. They need more time to build a strong case. Some are concerned barr wants the case this month for political reasons. Charges against Goldman Sachs dropped in the 1mdb scandal. Last, goldman paid malaysia 2. 5 billion to guarantee the return of 1. 4 million from 1mdb asset fees around the world. Misleadingaccused of investors while raising billions for the investment fund. China has joined the yum china has joined the ranks of selling shares in hong kong. The operator of kfc and other restaurants traded 2 billion on the listing. It is waving a ride of enthusiasm for ipos. They get a big bump from jack mas group. That is the lumber business flash. Bloombergine . Business flash tom, francine . Tom karina, thank you. Equities, bonds, currencies, commodities. The 29,000 level. The vix came into points earlier, one point now, 32. 31, and yields up about a basis point well. Francine . Francine tom, i am looking at european stocks rebounding, treasury rising. I know you mentioned that. Interesting what happened in europe, because we did not have a selloff earlier on, and now bank stocks at a rally, after we have that kaichen kens bank bank in spain and are talking about merging, and it will take a step, but it is something we need to look at for emerging stocks for a third day. Coming up on the open, a full line of guests, including rick rieder of blackrock. That hour with jon ferro, that is at 9 00 a. M. In europe, 2 00 p. M. In london, and this is bloomberg. Valuations, particularly through the technology landscape, have gotten through some particularly its ordinary levels, so i think it is not a surprise. Between growth and value has been on the table for a while. It means have we been able to hold a significant lead as we coming to favor where they stay in favor. Prices impact and continue to go up, their volatility goes up, too, which is not a normal relationship. It is usually inverse. And the fact that we, you know, upended tony, 30 years of that relationship and are starting to get that, that made me nervous. Barry the craziness in this 2020 summer of love for investors was getting out of hand, and of course there is the robinhood and aaron against robinhood shenanigans that have been going on, so it is not a surprise. Julian if you have to Much Technology in your portfolio, now the time to take it off. Downside outside, movement here. James we are looking at a rotation out of the outperformance, sort of a blast from the past, if you will, but we are looking at those stocks. Susan it is the beginning of a healthy correction. We have not really seen a dramatic pullback. Bill uncertainty is the enemy of markets. Tom to your opinion. That is what we do here, conversations, when theg markets blowup, crater, row, plunge, whatever it is. Mr. Ackman and a host of other on the market. She is a claim. Gina martin adams rationalizes her approach. She has Bloomberg Intelligence and chief equity strategist. Gina, a correction down 10 is down 26,000. A bear market down 18 , collette dowd 24,000 as well. We are nowhere near that. How have we lost where the real correction is . Gina that is a really good question. I do think that when you have these extraordinarily volatile moves in stocks, it does create a degree of fear, and we have had actually extraordinary voluntarily this year. To see a 4 to 5 correction, depending on which market you follow in a day is extremely rare, in particular in the mid of an uptrend. Ofwe have experienced a lot volatility in 2020. I think over the longerterm, we have lost sense of what a correction is, mostly because the stock market has premuch gone straight higher for 10 years straight, meaning go back have10, and although we had a decent amount of volatility of several significant corrections, 50 to 20 even, in general, the Market Performance has surprised most of the consensus. There is this bearish tone and they are sentiment that continues to overwhelm and bearish sentiment that continues to overwhelm what the market has done and what the market is telling you, so any correction is embraced as something significantly more ominous than it is. Tom i like your phrase. I think that goes to the heart of the matter. Right now, gina martin adams, michael has something i thought was brilliant. He talked about the financial is asian of derivatives that have overtaken the cash market financialization of derivatives that have overtaken the cash market. In 1987, the financialization was portfolio insurance. Do we have unknowns in this market right now, wrapped around derivatives, that makes this a dangerous place for the regular investor . Gina i dont think we have unknowns in the derivative space. You do have new products that somewhat unknown. The stats are new product and have been accelerating pretty rapidly. We have not had any new issuance of equities. Obviously, some names aside, new issuance is still extremely slim, so of course theres very little cash equity to invest in. So the supply of cash equity is somewhat slim. The results of that, as demand accelerates, prices accelerate. Nonetheless, investors are getting more creative with the types of products that can be issued. Obviously, etf issuance is continuing to rise. We are looking at other alternatives, as companies are not utilizing the equity market to raise capital to a large degree. That theot say Financial Derivatives market in particular is a danger zone. I mean, i know we heard that in the 1980s, we heard that again in the 1980s, we have heard that for much of the last decade as well. It is a normal part of the progress of markets, it is just on this particular climate, we do not have a lot of cash supply, so you are seeing other alternatives getting issued, but not necessarily derivative alternatives. More about packaged products that are appealing to an investor looking for, you know, looking for Investment Equity ideas. Francine gina, good morning from london. How much volatility or market mayhem will be see just before and just after the u. S. Election . Gina that is certainly what investors are betting on. I think that there is this prevailing sentiment that 2020 will look like 2016 in one way, shape, or form, potentially more volatile than 2016, and that has absolutely shown up in a volatility position and options positioning around the election. I think that, in general, investors are anticipating a blue wave taking over washington, but perhaps not an easy transition of power. Aroundot of volatility the transition, and that is what the positioning is about. What is intriguing as we are not we dont seem to be trading at all on potential policymaking in 2020. We are not trading at the sector level, at least from my work, it does not appear that we are trading at the sector level on actual policy change occurring into 2021. Instead, it is really more about volatility and fear around the transition of power more than anything at this particular moment. What happens to equities and to positioning, if there is no clear winner . Gina yeah, i mean, i think it is messy, right . That is what the volatility markets are telling you, if there is no clear winner, you probably have a market that is very choppy and extremely volatile, as we work through that process of determining who the winner is. Also there isink something to be said for the fact that in the months leading up to the 2016 election, the market also corrected pretty materially in september and then basically traded sideways to down into the election before we of relief. N sort once the event is past, then the market price is pretty quickly. I think that most many of our elections for the last several days have been very, very close to it i mean, you can go all the way back to the 2000 time period , when we did not precisely know a winner, and we had to wait to find the winner of that particular election as well. So, to some degree, markets are accustomed to uncertainty around elections. I think this is not as much about not knowing who a winner is as it is about markets getting nervous around transition of power, in my opinion. Tom gina martin adams, thank you so much for the brief this morning, with Bloomberg Intelligence, our chief equity strategist. Right now on this job day, a briefing, your first word news coming here is Karina Mitchell. Karina there is now an informal agreement to avoid a u. S. Government shutdown at the end of the month. Bloomberg has learned that treasury secretary Steven Mnuchin and House Speaker nancy pelosi will work to keep the government from closing right before the election. That reduces the chance of market turmoil at the end of this month. Meanwhile, joe biden drew an explicit contrast with President Trump and his trip to kenosha, wisconsin. The democratic president ial candidate spoke with jacob blake, the black man shot in the back by police, and promised sweeping changes to fight racism if elected. The president has focused on the writing and looting that have at inges over shouted riot and looting that have at times overshadowed peaceful protest. Angela merkel is receiving pressure to drop gas from russia. Merkel is awaiting to see about the poisoning. She is waiting to see if the case should be treated separately. In france, the government could extend the Furlough Program it created to protect jobs during the pandemic, according to the finance minister. He indicated authorities are willing to spend more than 119 billion included in the weighted stimulus plan. He also said the French Economy could perform better this year than forecast. Global news, 24 hours a day, on air and at bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. I am Karina Mitchell. This is bloomberg. Francine . Tom . Francine thank you, karina. Coming up, we talk of the pandemic, backtoschool, and of course vaccines. This is bloomberg. S is bloomberg. Tom bloomberg surveillance. a jobs day at 8 30. It will be an important jobs day, culminating with Jonathan Ferros discussion with mr. Kudlow in the 10 00 hour. Some of it does pull into the economy and to the jobs economy, and that is about this pandemic. Andrew pekosz has been wonderful to give us perspective, with Johns Hopkins university for your do i want to get back to the core matter, which is social distancing. If you are wearing a mask, what is the appropriate distance . Prof. Pekosz well, i think, practically speaking, six feet seems to be the number that most people are quite familiar with, and i think all the data suggest that, you know, if you maintain that come along with a mask, you have at least two things in place that will help prevent transmission. So that is the simplest thing to try to get across to people as an effective means of practicing this physical distancing between each other. Tom we are going into a colder season, the 90degree temperatures in new york city are breaking, and things get a little chill. What is the chart of temperature and virus . Where is the break point on that, and fahrenheit, if you insist, or do it in celsius for francine. Prof. Pekosz it differs for each virus, but it is very clear that with sars cov 2, the virus that causes covid19, we have had a lot of that spread of virus in the u. S. Under conditions like you just described that are extremely hot and humid. With viruses such as influenza, we expect a seasonal seasonality of that, and there is data suggesting that cooler temperatures and lower human helps transmission. We think those things are also true for covid19, but the reality is, so many of us are susceptible to infection that even under less than ideal transmission conditions, the virus sees enough people that it can cause disease and spread in the community. Francine dr. Pekosz, how much do we know about long haulers . The media is getting, i guess, wiser, and starting to look into this. Once you have had covid, is that it . Or are there a significant number of people who have had to live with legacy or repercussions, whatever you want to call them, for 3, 4, 5 months, or even longer . Prof. Pekosz absolutely, and this is, again, something that you only start to realize as you move into a pandemic. Many people are suffering two weeks, four weeks, even longer than that, from the virus infection, an important other aspect coming together is aspects, how the virus infection can affect your heart, and there is certainly now more and more evidence suggesting there are long term damage to other organs that maybe are a result of direct infection or simply a result of the immune response that the virus generates as it is working its way through your lungs. So certainly we have to think about this disease as more than just a virus that can cause death in a certain percentage of the population. It causes severe disease in relatively Healthy People at a good present, and it can cause these longterm effects in relatively Healthy People, so we need a more holistic view of the true impact of this virus on health in general and on public health. Tom if we have a flu shot for all of the other flus, why cant we have a flu shot for this terrible virus . Prof. Pekosz i think we are in the middle of trying to work out exactly what it takes to do that. There has been some fantastic work that has been done at very fast rates to try to generate vaccines, and we know what those vaccines can induce certain immune responses. Our big question, though, is are those immune responses that the vaccines or inducing, are those enough to protect you from infection . And, importantly, are they enough to protect you from infection in a way that is going to prevent you from even spreading the virus . Because it is possible that the vaccine could still protect you from disease but still allow you to spread the virus. That is where the phase three trials that are undergoing now with vaccines are going to be very critical, because they are not going to just look at safety, they are not just going to look at are you inducing antibodies to the vaccine, they are going to look at protection. Are people who get vaccines less likely to get covid19 than a control group that has gotten a placebo . That is something we need to wait for those results to come through before we really invest in a widespread vaccination campaign, because we want to make sure that the virus that the vaccine is efficacious and not just able to induce some immune responses and providing an unclear amount of protection. Francine andrew, what about, you know, the reports about five different countries, people had a second infection with covid . Are they also able to pass it on to others . How much do we understand about that . Prof. Pekosz yeah, so the last two weeks, we have seen a number of these reports come as you just mentioned, francine, about people who have gotten a confirmed second infection. This is different from people who are are rna positive for a long period time after their first infection. These are people who have appeared to have cleared their infection and have evidence that they have gotten a second infection with a different genetic strain of the virus. These are very rare, to date. What those will give us is the opportunity to study peoples immune responses, so we need to find those people, understand how they respond to the first infection, and why that immune vulnerable tothem this second infection. Again, i think this will be a rare occurrence so far, but those represent important cases that could be studied, so we can learn even more about what it takes to generate a good immune response to the vaccine, and that will help go to the virus infection, which will help drive our work on the vaccine front. Francine andrew pekosz, thank you so much, of Johns Hopkins there, be sure to check out on the bloomberg, and tune in every day for exclusive conversations with Johns Hopkins aspects experts for a look at battling covid19 coming up on tv and covid19john bolton p coming up on tv and radio, john bolton, the former National Security advisor. This is bloomberg. Advisor. This is bloomberg. Karina this is bloomberg surveillance. I am Karina Mitchell with the Bloomberg Business flash. Broadcom has a bullish forecast. Broadcoms products include components for smartphones, servers, cars, and software that run the biggest mainframe computers. Chinese banks are planning their record bond sales this month. The Worlds Largest lender wants to replenish capital levels weakened two struggling businesses. Plans to raise him was 29 billion they plan to raise almost 29 billion, the second highest ever in china. Virgin airways plans to cut hundreds of more jobs. It could be a 40 reduction of the workforce since the start of the pandemic, likely to be announced today. Comes one day after Virgin Atlantic got final approval for a 1. 6 billion rescue package. That is the Bloomberg Business flash. Francine thank you so much. Bloomberg economists say the august report could deliver the last payroll report before losses strike again. Joining us now is bloombergs yelena shulyatyerva. Yelena, thank you for joining us. What are you looking for in the payroll numbers . Yelena we are looking for a small number. We are looking for consensus. We are simply expecting, you know, job growth, growth to slow down significantly, and to have negatives as soon as september. We are talking about the seasonal factors here. It is just that, you know, if you look at the nonseasonally adjusted numbers, they start think, andugust, i they dont really grow in september, and in october, they bump up. So i think we need really need to think about this in terms of seasonal and how this time around, it is not going to be as strong as in the previous years. Are these jobsa, figures going to be more confusing from that one because of seasonality and what you were explaining . Yelena i think it will be more confusing, simply because this year is so different from the previous years, and it is probably not going to see as much backtoschool hiring. We are not going to see as much as Holiday Season hiring. We are simply not going to get that much, so all you need to do is probably look at how much improvement you get in nonseasonally adjusted data. Francine how much of these job losses are going to be permanent, jobs that will just actually never come back . Yelena so it will really depend on how the economy is going from here, how many cases of covid19 we are going to get from now on, and how much of aggregate demand is out there. Also,ig variable here is you know, the stimulus package, which is still hanging in limbo here, so i think we will see a huge impact from the discontinuation of a prop up of 600 a week in those jobless benefits. As personal income declined significantly, it will affect personal spending, and in turn, it will affect jobs as well. Yelena, when are we going to see some kind of normality, or when will it take for us to go to some level of job creation that we saw in january 2020 . Yelena years. I would say by the time we receive the september jobs report. A lot of people who lost their jobs back in april will become longterm unemployed, so you will Start Talking about skills accuracy and longterm unemployment, things like janet yellen was looking at back in the previous, you know, cycle. And you will just it will take longer to recover from now on. The rebound that we saw in the last month was great, but that will slow down significantly from now on. Francine yelena shulyatyerva there, Bloomberg Economics senior u. S. Economist. We did have quite a phone when it came to equity markets yesterday, certainly on the nasdaq quite a fall when it came to equity markets yesterday, certainly on the nasdaq. The focus is u. S. Jobs, looking at the volatility, actually the number of trades that are being done. They are a little bit smaller than expected. This is partly because of the jobs data. This partly is because we have a long weekend over in the u. S. Coming up later, Jonathan Ferro in a conversation with Clarence Lawrence kudlow, coming up at 10 00 a. M. In london, 3 15 p. M. In london. It is all about that jobs report. This is bloomberg. T. This is bloomberg. I think theres much more rationality in the equity market when we look beneath the surface. Ou should expect some i think the narrative is a healthy thing. More fiscal would be nice to have. I dont because a need to have. The fed needs a partner, and the partner is fiscal policy. This is bloomberg surveillance with tom keene, Jonathan Ferro, and lisa abramowicz. Jonathan for our audience worldwide, good morning, good morning. This is bloomberg surveillance , live on bloomberg tv and radio. She sent a reality check. Lisa abramowicz. Tom keene has been in cashs whole life. Thatenvious of a market