Anna edwards is in for jon ferro and lisa abramowicz. Ferro taking the entire month off. Lisa only taking half the month off. We are thrilled anna edwards could join us today as well. Remember when augusts were boring . August is no longer boring, is it . Anna i remember when all of europe went on holiday in august, but no longer. We got alltime highs on u. S. Stocks. Is that really out of kilter with the underlying u. S. Economy comes with the underlying global ok . Omic story, and is that tom the persistency across yields is amazing. Yields come up 4, 5, 6 days, and they roll over and come back down. We are not through to new lows in the last number of weeks on yield, but nevertheless, watching that very closely. We will get to that with an important guest any moment. David malpass with us later in the hour. I want to go to a story which we have been covering the last number of days. For me in america, it has gone radio silent. That is belarus. This is between poland and russia, with this huge uproar over an election, where the leader took an 80 vote. Onthere any Forward Motion our knowledge of the future of belarus . Anna we had leaders talking, and there are a lot of leaders in this conversation. President putin has been. Peaking to merkel the president of belarus as if in a lot of troops on his border with two different you countries. That is seemingly added to tensions, but they are getting together to talk about this, and hopefully things can deescalate from here. Tom tori clark leading our coverage in moscow and across Eastern Europe for this continuing coverage. Maybe off the radar for those of you on radio and tv in america, but nonetheless really important. Particularly on nato as well. In the United States, Convention Coverage will be one of our themes here in the hour. Let me do a data check here. The yield comes in to basis point. To thatg to get inflationadjusted yield in a moment. 1. 0 5 . Historically, that is not the textbooks. Dollar, i am going to call it stable. Terling, maybe that is why ferro, it is amazing what he can do with a 1. 32 sterling. To help us synthesize this, to get you through august and into biancoumn is jim furby juncker jim bianco for Bianco Research out of chicago. I love what you said about the sitting back of where tips about this enigma of where tips are. Jim the problem is the Federal Reserve is the biggest player in that market. Since march, they have bought 25 bought 250have billion worth of tips. If youre looking at the outlook for inflation or for the economy, you have to be careful. It is a bit distorted because the biggest buyer is the central bank. It shouldnt be ignored or not looked at, but it has become more complicated to try and understand it. Signals tom what other signals have value to consider inflation . James you would have to go away from the signals that are not with the central bank. The university of Michigan Survey or the Consumer Confidence survey or the Commodity Markets themselves, Central Banks are playing in those markets, and those are turning higher. They are expecting more inflation as we move forward from here. Theres definitely signals on the horizon that inflation is coming. Carefulbe a little bit with over reading the tips market. I wouldnt rely on some of those nonmarket indicators. Anna good morning to you, jim. How confident are you that inflation readings, we just got some out of the u. K. This morning, inflation a little bit stronger than had been anticipated, but that might be shortlived. How confident are you that inflation readings are enough accurate information, given the way spending patterns have shifted so much. That thet statisticians rely on might not be the baskets that you and i consume. Jim jim thats exactly right. What we are consuming now is what we werent consuming four or five months ago, so there could be a bit of a distortion. But at the end of the day, lets member what is going on, which is the fundamental for pushing inflation higher. We havent higher we have a higher unappointed rate. The economy is at a lower level than it was a few months ago, and we are stimulating the economy by giving people either stimulus checks or extra unemployment. , and weveess supply got demand being stimulated. That should lead to higher prices, otherwise known as inflation. I think that is what a lot of the surveys are telling us might be coming. What we knowone about the way Central Banks want to keep the cost of funding death low at this point, do we really see inflation coming meaningfully . Say expectations have bounced up from the lows of march, but that doesnt necessarily mean we are off to the races from here. Jim that is a good point. I thing we will see meaningful inflation probably the second half of 2021 or into 2022 as the economy strengthens and all of this stimulus starts to add in as well. The central bank, especially be Federal Reserve, will go to an average inflation target. They will say to percent is not their target, it is their average, so they can run it above 2 . They are not going to change policy one inch. They are just going to announce that the policy is changing. Tom this is like when the white sox are better than the cubs, and that only happens once a century. Is there any evidence out there whatsoever that governments can reflate an economy, that governments can somehow magically make percent or 3 make 2 or 3 inflation up here . Jim theres no evidence at all. We havent seen that in 30 years. I think you should go to the other side of the equation, too. Theres very little evidence that the governments or the Central Banks could stop it if they wanted to stop it. Tom what is so important here is the fed in their timeline. Do you just assume their timeline is way out where the ortgeist is, that it is 23 2024 . Jim they want to keep sewer rates out to 2023 or 2024, but if they are only going to do it one meeting at a time, theres going to be no inflation, and then when it starts to percolate too much, they will change on a dime. What i suspect is when it is all said and done, they will be moving on inflation a lot sooner than they think, probably in a year to 18 months as opposed to two or three years. I want you to address for our listeners and viewers this stock market. It seems to be uniquely and differently unloved. How do you participate . Back. Am going to push i understand people have said it is the most hated market ever. We are seeing that prepandemic, but there are plenty of instances or signals that the public is in it in a big way. The type of retail accounts which now accounts for 25 of all of the volume, which was practically nothing a couple of years ago. They are in it in a big way. They are in it in a big way, and the concentration you see in the faang stocks. Those are almost 1 4 of the s p. They are in that market, and i think as far as your question, the reason they hated it, those bottom 300 companies, i think they are still struggling with the economy to return to normal, but those top companies, they are stayathome companies, and they are doing very well. They are pushing the whole index higher. Bianco there from chicago this morning. Is this happening in the United Kingdom . Are people on the couch daytrading apple . Anna not as much is in the u. S. We had that from a guest last hour, that that was one of the reasons why the u. S. Stock market was outperforming european stocks. We see that to a large degree. Equities areopean made up of very different sectors. Sament see the daytrading phenomenon. Tom only she can take over for two people as well. This is a wonderful guest coming up. You really want to stay with us on radio and television. Sometimes i guests shows up, and you are like, yeah, yeah. Then they open their mouths and they are just brilliant. Henrietta treyz will be with us on the policy after the two conventions. Henrietta treyz on what happens the first wednesday of november. Please stay with us. It is a simulcast, bloomberg radio, bloomberg television. Stay with us. Good morning. Karina with the first word news, im karina mitchell. Joe biden shooting down President Trumps attempts to paint him as a puppet of progressives. Democrats formally nominated biden for novembers election. The Virtual Convention included testimonialsfrom the partys old guard testimonials from the partys old guard such as bill clinton. If you want a president who defines the job as spending hours a day watching television and on twitter, you got your man. In a real crisis, it collapses like a house of cards. Covid doesnt respond to any of that. Two beat it, youve got to actually go to work and deal with the facts. The Trump Administration sees a path to a pared down 500 billion stimulus deal. The package would eliminate the biggest areas of disagreement between republicans and democrats. It would include financial help for the postal service, aid to schools, and money for businesses to keep workers employed. Democrats may also agree to a smaller deal. Meanwhile, President Trump raising questions about the future of that trade deal china. The president says he called off last weeks talks with beijing. He says he doesnt want to talk to china right now. He called chinas handling of the coronavirus unthinkable. Outbreaks in florida and california are showing signs of easing. Hospitalizations are down almost 30 from a peak in july. Target posted its fastest sales growth ever in the quarter. Sales were almost three times higher than the average estimate. Adjusted earnings also had an alltime high. The ceo says School Shopping season started more slowly than usual, but sales were up more than 10 this month. Global news 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. Im karina mitchell. This is bloomberg. Pres. Trump i postponed talks with china. I dont want to deal with them now. With what they did to do this country into the world, i dont want to talk to china right now, ok . Tom the president of the United States. The president always makes appearances, trying to stay within the news cycle. Certainly mr. Trump is no exception. He will have his moment here and, more in a number of days. On policy, and may be less on the convention, but on the stimulus nonevent, it is wonderful to speak to Henrietta Treyz. Every it is almost aims almost game theory. I am fascinated by the incentive of Speaker Pelosi right now to compromise. What is her bias this morning to compromise with republicans on some form of stimulus . Henrietta thanks for having me this morning. I think compromise is an interesting word because mostly we are seeing that she is staying at the table. I get questions like this all the time. Theres really no alternative. You have to say that. Neither republicans nor democrats can step away and say, you know what . The pandemic is fine. They have to engage in at least the perception that they are having a dialogue. But what i can tell you is that there is no negotiation happening right now. Democrats are going to come in on saturday and vote on a usps package that may or may not include some unemployment benefits. That is still as far apart as we have been for the last five or six weeks. The samethere is Henrietta Treyz power meter. Who holds the power here . Henrietta in my opinion, the Minority Party always holds the power. A great component of this for investors is that we have a Government Shutdown looming. If it werent for a Government Shutdown, i would say that both of the two sides are fighting more of a political war than an economic war. I think we are going to be fighting through at least september 21. That means several weeks of expired unemployment benefits. The payroll tax suspension is obviously not being implement it across the board, and we will be dealing with a much starker picture in late september than we are right now. Each side thinks they are winning this debate, to your previous point. The republican conference is much more poignant than they have been much more buoyant than they have been over june, july august. Tom all of the payroll tax people are like one in five jobs in america. Whatever the ratio is, it is a small number. Are these people at a Virtual Convention, is the president building a scaffold at the white house, do they understand the pain that is out there with claims tomorrow . Henrietta i dont think so at all. I think you heard a lot at the Convention Last night. Frombly most powerfully jill biden. Students are trying to get back to school. The expired Unemployment Insurance benefits have been lapsed now for almost four weeks. That is the principal focus on main street, and definitely not in d. C. , where november 3 is all we can talk about. This is surveillance exclusive, when Henrietta Treyz abandons her childrens first day of school to come on bloomberg surveillance. Anna edwards, youve got to be dazzled by that. Anna we are privileged. [laughter] thank you very much. We will let you go shortly. Let me ask you, what plays well at the ballot box in november around the way that these two parties handle this need for fiscal stimulus, if that is the right word . Is there the trap that one party could mishandle this and then be blamed . Henrietta that is essentially right. The interesting component for the last three or four weeks is the event where the republican conference is not catering to what Speaker Pelosi and minority leader schumer want is so much more powerful and a much more driving force galvanizing republicans, uniting the idea of a win right now, that it is creating enough room to put out a skinny package. The idea that they are not giving into pelosi is a really resident election platform for the republican conference right now, and that is why youre seeing them stick to this idea that they are not going to pass a 2. 5 trillion package. With that is actually doing is shaking another chance to release a skinny package that will be Unemployment Insurance benefits, the ppp funding, business liability to keep the government open into december. That is a helpful step. We have 75 odds that we will get a deal by the end of september, but it is at least five weeks away, and it is not come to look like either of the bills we have seen so far. But the idea that the republicans are winning by bucking policy i think is the most important point. Context,m a european we got a lot of fiscal stimulus here as well, and there is always obsession with how much of it will be earmarked for green projects, how much of it goes in the environmentally friendly direction. Is that going to be a focus after november, do you think . Henrietta i see that mostly in the restaurant space. Minority, veteran, female owned businesses, that will definitely be a component. That will be part of if they are ,lected, a biden harris ticket and pelosi as speaker of the house this november. Tom Henrietta Treyz, always brilliant. Henrietta, take care of your children. Youve abandoned them. Ive been looking at this number , and i should have also done this in our so ago. Yesterday, walmart showed up 97 digital sales. The statistic for target is up 195 . I dont know how you sustain that. A pandemic, i get it. It is a oneoff. But these are shocking numbers. Anna you asked me if people were here trading. Maybe they are not daytrading. Maybe they are doing online shopping. That is going to make the difference between the retailers to survive and thrive out of this, and those who dont. Tom this is a huge mystery here, the game changing. And on ourd economy political economy, our conversation of today coming up. David malpass is the World Bank President. Mr. Malpass has spearheaded the effort toward aid and reaction to the pandemic. We will get an update on the pandemic, and update on 2021 for his world bank. Red and green on the screen with futures. Theres a shift on the market with the real yield ever lower, 1. 06 . That is changing on this wednesday morning. On bloomberg radio, on bloomberg television, the simulcast. This is bloomberg. Experience the ultimate sports hub. Where you can find games, news and highlights. All in one place, right on your tv. The xfinity sports zone. Use your voice to search every stat and score. Follow the teams you love. And, even get notifications with breaking news alerts and more. With the xfinity sports zone everybody wins. Now thats simple, easy, awesome. Say xfinity sports zone into your voice remote today. Yeah. This moving thing never gets any easier. Well, xfinity makes moving super easy. I can transfer my internet and tv service in about a minute. Wow, that is easy. Almost as easy as having those guys help you move. We are those guys. Thats you . The truck adds 10 pounds. In the arms. Okay. Transfer your Service Online in a few easy steps. Now thats simple, easy, awesome. Transfer your service in minutes, making moving with xfinity a breeze. Visit xfinity. Com moving today. Tom bloomberg surveillance. Abramowicz,ro, lisa and tom keene. Jonathan and lisa are off. We need one person to replace them. Anna edwards in london. Spearheading all of our work in london. We have red and green on the screen. A low bit of turn to the market. The real yield is being tested to new lows. We are not back to new lows. There has been a three day adjustment from the yield recovery to a lower yield on global close on Global Growth worries. Right now our conversation with World Bank PresidentDavid Malpass. I was talking without eric martin, and he was certain a key topic was debt relief for beleaguered nations. To begin, give us an update on the urgency of debt relief for many troubled nations. Tom, and anna, good morning. The deepest urgency is for growth and reduction of poverty. Countrr to get there, ies need new investment. One obstacle to that is the debt burden. If you are a new investor and you know your money is going to go to help pay off old debt, that creates obstacle to the new investment. We are tried to find relief from the debt service, meeting the payment the countries has to make, these are the poorest countries in the world. They do not have the resources to fight covid. To reduce their current cash flow payments, but also looking yet reducing the stock of their debt, which would give a light at the end of their tunnel. Thisyou are an expert on as an economist for bear stearns. You and i both know sam fisher in 1998 wrote. We know the work of bill rhodes when he was at citigroup on debt work. Is it the same policies and procedures from another time and place, or is the World Bank Working in debt workout from a different process . David is different. I happen to talk with bill rhodes last week. He is doing well and was involved in many of the previous debt restructuring. Treasury80s, i was at during the latin debt crisis. Those were syndicated bank loans. They had a different restructuring process, and also a different dynamic between creditors and debtors. The banks needed the repayments in order to maintain their equity capital. , beginning innd 2004 urso, there has been a huge buildup of debt in 2004 or so, there is been a huge buildup of debt in the poorest countries coming from china and eurobonds. Those are more difficult to restructure and the dynamic between the creditor and the debtor has shifted in favor of the creditor. The problem this causes for new investment is the creditor is theing there wanting 107 on dollar, and that creates a bait challenge in terms of creating light at the end of the tunnel for the poorest countries. Tom you have on your website a phenomenal box chart of these troubled nations and their relationship with china. This is a delicate question and i hope you come back to bloomberg surveillance after my rudeness. How intrusive is the Trump White House in their negotiations with china for you at the world bank to have a constructive work out of troubled nation debt with china . How much does the Trump Administration get in the way . David i would not frame it that way. The u. S. May have issues with buta, for example on trade, the world separately recognizes we are all trying to Work Together to get wrote in developing countries to get growth in developing countries. Over last 10 years or so, china has made many loans into developing countries, with terms that are not transparent and with terms that are higher in Interest Rate the countries can afford. Onechallenge is a technical there was the whole world working together to find a way through this. China needs to participate. Saide g20 in april, they they were always engaged in this. Getting each of the chinese lenders, getting each of them on a board is a challenge. And i amre pushing, glad you raised the website, we are thinking that transparency will help. Examplen disclose, for when Central Banks make swaps between each other, that is a debt. Some of those swaps are debt and could be disclosed as debts and should be. When ecuador does a restructuring, as they did last week, there are other creditors not included in the main restructuring, and the terms of those other restructurings should be disclosed. This way people can look at it and get a better outcome. Anna david, good morning. ,hat transparency should help maybe facilitate those conversations with china. In the current climate, do you get any sense the chinese are going to join with your effort to alleviate the debt servicing burden for the poor nations . David certainly. Many of the china creditor agencies, they are participating in the dss side with the restructuring terms that other countries are using. Some of them are not. That creates the challenge we are working on by disclosing that. In other words if there can be more information, i think we will get a better outcome. Other things we are working on is in the longer run, the most debt constraint countries need a reduction in the stock of debt. What we have been talking about is chinas participation, and all the creditors participating in a moratorium on the repayments from the countries. , the countries are just adding that amount onto the end of the loan. There is not stop relief. With the Interest Rate environment as low as it is right now, the net present value is not a good metric of trying to figure that out. We are looking at ways to do a reduction in the actual amount investors willre come into the countries. We look ahead to the meetings that always take place in the fall, the imf and world bank meetings, should we look ahead with that kind of time horizon to see an extension of the dssi, and should we go further than that, should we hope in october to see something on the underlined investment . David yes and yes. I spoke with the g7 finance ministers on monday. They are favorable, and i think the g20 will be favorable on an extension of the debt service moratorium. To have step is harder agreement to actually do haircuts or writedowns. That has happened in the past. In the 1980s, and the latin debt crisis, it got to the point of haircuts, but it took so long the countries were in deep deep trouble by the time that happened. One of the things we are trying to do is accelerate that so you can get to a good outcome sooner. This is important, and i would like to mention other things were working on, range of areas. One is the inequality of the current global crisis. It is hitting the poorest countries and people the hardest. We are working hard on that with big new search in World Bank Group lending to these countries. The other thing i wanted to mention his vaccines, which are so important. The financing the world bank has available for things like health care, and we have done over 100 programs in april and may, those could be used for vaccines or therapeutics. That,rld concentrating on putting more money into those efforts is useful. Tom i do not mean to make a joke about it because this is tragic stuff, but if you look at john burns murdochs wonderful work with Johns Hopkins university, there is bolivia, there is panama, there is latin america, and then there is this World Bank Country the United States of america up there with the pandemic. What would david pass what would David Malpass in the world bank do to help the United States not to have the United States have these ugly debt statistics like these impoverished nations . One thing we should recognize is we are in new territory. The pandemic is new and the severity is new. It is coming at a time when many developing countries had too much debt. U. S. , iink about the think you move through methodically with ways to allow the businesses that can reopen to reopen, the schools to reopen where they can. That becomes an important part of peoples productivity. You want to raise the productivity. ,n the long run you need good well targeted investments in the u. S. And everywhere. That comes from transparency. If you know with the investment is in the u. S. Ive advocated the disclosure of our outlay projections. A huge amount of money goes into these funds and you do not know what the outlays are used for, what the projections are for the future on those outlays. They become a burden on the allocation of investment. Countries, we need a way they can move investment from the old sectors, the prepandemic sectors into the new sectors. That is a core of what we are working on. Tom we have to leave it there. David malpass, thank you for the update with the world bank. This is a fascinating conversation. We will be with David Rubenstein, cofounder of the carlyle group, on his conversation with the director of the smithsonian institution, one of our great philanthropists in conversation with a history of the nation. Stay with us on the simulcast. This is bloomberg. Karina with the first word news, im karina mitchell. Democrats have made it official. They have nominated joe biden to take on President Trump in november. Biden received the delegates needed in a rollcall that was a trip across the nation. Joe biden will be a president we will all be proud to salute. With joe biden the white house, you will never doubt he will stand with our friends and stand up to our adversaries, never the other way around. Tonight the party will hear from senator kamala harris. We will hear more from the postmaster general about his decision to suspend changes to the mail service until after the election. Inis dejoy will testify front of congress on friday and monday. The Trump Administration is considering private sanctions on venezuelan oil. Bloomberg has learned the measures could target crude swaps with companies in asia and europe. Of u. S. Sees the contents tankers carrying oil to venezuela. Venezuela cannot produce its own gas because of widespread mechanical failures at refineries. Saudi arabia is keeping up the pressure on opecplus nations that have been exceeding their output targets. King king solomon salman opec and its allies will discuss compliance. Global news 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. Im karina mitchell. This is bloomberg. The challenge is to make sure the smithsonian has the Stable Funding it needs. Because of the pandemic we have lost millions of dollars. People are not going to the restaurants and shops which has an impact on our research and our staff, so making sure we have the strongest financial model. It means we have to rethink some things. Tom combining academics and africanamerican history with also the operation of it all. Of thech, secretary smithsonian institution. This is a fascinating and deeply important interview for the nation on two accounts. It is peertopeer with David Rubenstein, but far more than that, the philanthropy of David Rubenstein to the nation. I want you to explain when you walked into that museum and you saw your emancipation proclamation and your 13th amendment of Abraham Lincoln sitting in that museum. What was that like . Wasd i was very proud i able to provide those to the get thend help them africanamerican Culture Museum off the ground. As you know, that museum cost about 540 million, half of which came from the federal government, half of which came from private contributions, and i was pleased to be part of it. It is an Extraordinary Museum and lonnie bunch started from scratch. That museumead of and now he is the head of the entire smithsonian. Is thee inside story reason the Washington Redskins exist is so there is something more controversial than the smithsonian in washington. How will mr. Bunch drive forward the smithsonian to stability and more modern institution . David about 60 of the money comes from the federal government. Making sure congress is happy is always important. Then we get a lot of thrilling tropic contributions a lot of philanthropic contributions from allow the country. Because the museums are closed we have lost Revenue Sources from shops we have in the museum. And 10re 19 Museums Research centers. Those museums have been largely closed. Does jar open. Twonational zoo is open are open. ,he national zoo is open reports there may be a new baby panda. The space museum at dulles is open. There are reports the other museums will gradually open. , inie is a friend of mine was a chairman of the board of the smithsonian when lonnie was selected to be the new secretary and ive been on the board for a dozen years and chair for three years. Anna good morning from london. What is the smithsonian, what did lonnie tell you about what they are thinking about doing around racism and adding to the stock of education on that subject. In the u. K. There has been a lot of soulsearching about the people we chose to put on forms in recent years and the statues in civic spaces. It is important those people, if they are toppled that maybe they find a place in a museum so people can learn the residence of history. What is the museum thinking about doing . Someonet is appropriate from london is on the call because mr. Smith some mr. Smithson was british. He provided money to create the smithsonian in the mid1800s. It is named after him. The bank of america has recently given the smithsonian 25 billion and the smithsonian is trying to raise another 25 million for 50 million to have a conversation and dialogue about race that will go throughout all the museums of the smithsonian, the 19 museums, but try to have a frank conversation about race at the smithsonian, but not just about smithsonian racial matters, but the entire country. No conversation will solve all racial problems. There is no doubt there will be Racial Discrimination for some time in this country. It is a beginning and it is an important beginning. Anna it is an important part of the conversation. How they managing to return to anything like normal operations . I know one of the things you talked about was the way teamwork shown through, and this is something ive heard from a number of leaders in business, that although the pandemic has thrown up incredible challenges to business leaders, it has also shown a light on resilient and teamwork in a way perhaps normal times do not. Is that something you took away from your conversation . David absolutely. As i like to say, nobody does not like the smithsonian. In part because attendance is free. There are no admission prices, and that is because congress is putting up the money. People have fond memories of going there for free, and many others have similar memories. Today what we want to do is get the museums open again, that is what lonnie bunch is trying to do, but we have to do it in an appropriate social distancing way and a way that will not lead to viruses, employees getting sick or the people attending. Every employee will have to wear a mask. Those coming to the museums will wear a mask. We open them up gradually over a period of time and see how it goes if we make mistakes we have to correct them. It will take a while. As other organizations figuring out other museums, the smithsonian is the Museum Everybody is watching because we have the Biggest Museum complex in the world. These are wonderful conversation with business, finance, and washington leaders. Lonnie bunch of the smithsonian museum. That is tonight at 9 00 p. M. As well. After that, our Convention Coverage. David westin providing leadership with Kevin Cirilli and others as well. It is a fascinating it is fascinating where this leads out , one year, two years, what elements we will see sustained. Itll be something to see how they get through wednesday and onto thursday. , does the Democratic Convention have any buzz in the zeitgeist of london . They do not come through a great deal, in honesty, to the person on the street. We care very much about the format and how that is going down because we work in the media and we pour fort through the details and what kind of excitement i have heard it reported on in Mainstream Media in the u. K. A lot of focus on the personal story of joe biden and how that was told by jill biden yesterday. That seems to be coming through in the u. K. That may be has not been told very much before. Thank you forrds, helping us with the market check. Of lisahe sum abramowicz and jonathan ferro. Let me do a data check. Red and green on the screen. Nasdaq a little bit red. Fractionally higher. Spx up two points. I am rounding up. Some enthusiasm. Three basis points. Regime with per flattening. I would notice the 10year tips, that inflation approximation has gone to a greater real yield. We are not quite there yet. I am watching the real yield carefully. You heard jim bianco talk about that earlier. On oil, what a great conversation. Even better, edward morse of citigroup, an update on oil and commodities. Dr. Morse will appear in the 10 00 hour as well. Thank you for listening on radio and watching on tv. This is bloomberg surveillance. Taylor from new york city for our viewers worldwide, i am taylor riggs in for jonathan ferro. The countdown to the open starts right now. We begin with the big issue. Investors giving into momentum and getting behind the fastest bear Market Recovery on record. We retrace the entire bear market. Very strong momentum. We have come a long way. It has come back faster than most expected. We are in an earnings recovery and an economic recovery. If you look at retail sales, you look at housing activity. Until we see the key indicators start to buckle. I think markets will stay quite elevated pure you have to look at the technicals. Not whatndamentals are is driving the market. If you have a ton of cash, you have to put some in. They are not getting any interest or yield or