Fines for not wearing a mask. Jimmy lai tells bloomberg he was arrested on trumped up charges. Our interview with the next didge tillman owner shooter. They push back against a groundbreaking green between israel and the u. A. E. To norlanderalize relations between the two countries. President trump says there is more to come from diplomatic efforts in the region. A very good morning to you all. We are just under an hour away from the start of the cash Equities Trading session here in europe. Lets have a look at where we are on the futures. It looks as if we could see in downside moving at the start, but we are generally drifting when it comes to the Global Equity session from asia to europe. We are expect to go see a little weakness. Some of the futures suggest it could be weaker down about. 2 or. 3 on a futures. Programs a different dynamic in the ftse 100. Lets have a look at u. S. Futures as they point to a little bit of weakness at the start of the u. S. Trading day. We see strength coming through on those futures. It was weak nelson in yesterdays session, weakness in yesterdays session, setting us up. Lets dive into that it shows us where we have been on the asian session. South korea is leading the board in terms of losses. The Australian Market made some morganza. We are fairly flat overall in terms of the asian session. Fiscal stimulus in the u. S. A bit more data to deal with, whether that is improving data in the u. S. Mixed data coming out of china. All of that in. Mix. Dont lose sight of the underlying virus story where we see increasing case numbers coming through in parts of europe where previously programs we thought things were conditioned. France, greece, spain, folks focusing on those earls. Laura cooper joins us. We do seem a little rudderless in this last 24 hours of trading. Into friday. What do we think it is going to take to break things . We seem to be firmly in summer mode, low volumes coming across various markets. More between this ongoing washington standardoff. It is clear that we are not going to see any kind of nearterm development on that front. But then on the other hand we are seeing up side data surprises coming from the u. S. So jobless numbers beat yesterday. We do have this deluge of data today kicking off with jewel retail sales in the u. S. If we were to see another kind of surprise beat on that one, that could provide some uplift to sentiments heading into the weekend where it is all about the trade review. I think it is really kind of directionless is really the way to put it this morning. What is going to matter . What matters most to markets most as we look for the next move in the market now . We have china talks, chinau. S. Trade talks coming on a number of fronts. Not just trade. A lot of focus on the u. S. Stimulus story, although there dont seem to be any dates in the calendar to look ahead to. What is going to matter most to markets . I think right now the escalation on the trade front is likely to be contained. I think if we look at the 2019 playbook, the u. S. Was in a very different position in terms of their economic outlook, their growth trajectory is different today. They are likely going to keep that contained. I think it is more a case on the stimulus fund. When they look at stocks it zers appear that a lot of good news is priced in, and that does lead equities vulnerable to this negative news flow. I think breaking it down, clearly fiscal stimulus is needed to kind of maintain this momentum that we are seeing. But as well when we look at 2020 earnings estimates, they are likely still it too high. We have seen annual e. U. S revise them after earnings beats. Then we have the political risks around the u. S. Election. It is really unclear whether or not some of the potential policies we could see under a biden win. The market are likely sing win about that sanguine about that. In the near term it is about the stimulus. Now that the senate is on recess until early september. We are likely to see clear Forward Guidance from the fed. It leaves markets vulnerable to the down side. We see treasury yields year an eight week high. How do you think that move stands up to the latest news around the virus . I suppose some of it is Getting Better in the u. S. And worsening slightly in europe. Country are reflecting the prospects for a stern economic recovery. This is being reflective when we look at this rotation into sicklyal stocks in the u. S. And in europe. I think really Going Forward what is going to be crucial is whether we do see a vaccine. I think a vaccine is going to be needed to kind of propel this upward lift in yield. I think ultimately, though, given the fact that we are seeing just this economic uncertainty, the fact that we are seeing Central Banks kind of wanting to maintain these easy financial conditions that we are going to see really rangerebound treasuries Going Forward without kind of that catalyst on the up side to kind of break them out of that on a sustained basis. Laura, thank you very much. She was joining us with a look at the markets there. From one laura to another. Lets get a news update. We stay here in london with laura wright. Thanks. Israel and the united arab emrate have agreed to begin normalizing relations. The u. S. Hailed it as a key step toward peace in the region. At one time sides will hold a range of talks in coming reams. Israel has adreed to suspend its efforts to and exthe west bask. Palestinians criticized it. People arriving from malta and other countries have to isolate as shall days. It comes as the u. K. Is easing more lockdown measures and having more penalties. L. Yale university illegal discriminates in its undergraduate programs. That is a letter. It says it useses race as the determining fact torre. They categorically denied claims of discrimination. Under the bloomberg quick take, powered by 2700 analysts and journalists. This is bloomberg. Laura, thank you. Laura wright here in london. Coming up on the program, jimmy lai says he was arrested on trumped up charges. We bring you our interview with the Hong Kong Media tycoon. This is bloomberg. Welcome back to the European Market open. 50 minutes until the start of the trading day. Futures look fairly mixed. A little built of movement to the down side. Euro he futures point higher. Pro democracy activist jimmy lai says he was arrested on trumped up charges in an interview with bloomberg tv. He says he bees overwhelmed by the outpouring of popular support. He also said he thinks the National Security law has already had an intimidating effect. I dont know what they are trying to do. Those people bought the share. It is an expression of support for the company. Think they knew that. The rally was not there. It is just people want to up the s and buying stock. I asked people first when i came out from the police station, i said look, dont buy. You lose money. They just show support. They bought our newspaper at 1 00 in the morning they lined up at the stands to wait for the pucks of it. This is just hong kong peoples support for the newspaper and of the n of the anger rate of the mutual and for myself. The rally in your shares seems to be a bit shorty term. Did you ever consider in the last couple of days, i know you were preoccupied, but possibly issuing more shares to take advantage of this. And do you also have any plans given the uncertainty surrounding your future of divesting . You own 71 according to the latest data on bloomberg terminal of next digital . When people suggest issuing new shares, i think this is a very dishonest way to do it. I tell them that is not our business. Now, what is the future of apple kelly . We will proceed. There is no doubt. You serve a role in this community. You have been critical of the government. You have been critical of china. In an International Financial center, many people say you need accidenting media. You need a platform for these kind of voices to be heard. Are you practicing since the National Security law self censorship and monitoring what you are saying on your digital plate fomples . We cant do that. That diaw is general. En people want to really toe the line. It is a low line for you to toe. We cannot change what we have been doing. We dont think what we have been doing is wrong. You know, we are just practicing the freedom of peech. We are giving the community here a voice of their own. If that is a crime, we cant do anything else. Cow have plans at all to divest any of our holdings . Like i said, at least from march of 2019 is the latest data we have on your share holds on the bloomberg terminal. 71 and change. Dow have any contingency plans to divest or sell those shares . No, i dont. I wont divest my holding in echo daily. We have our presence in taiwan. We are the biggest newspaper in paper nd online, the and online. That is what we would have to ivest. What are the contingency plans . Say for example if you are convicted, we have to talk about that prospect . Yes. If i am convicted, i think the business will go on without me. That was the hong kong democracy activist and founder and chairman of next digital jimmy lai speaking to bloomberg tv. Fascinating conversation. Lets get back to some of the data on the european story. How bad did it get for europe in the depths of the coronavirus lock down . We will find out at 10 00 a. M. This morning with euro area g. D. P. Numbers are released. The survey numbers sees a 14. 1 slump from the previous quarter, and the euro is Holding Steady above 11 to the dollar ahead of that release. Joining us now is evelyn a bank of America Global Research economist. Great to speak to you this morning. As you look ahead to this data, what do you think the story will be, the narrative . The overall number will hide a lot of Different Levels of performance from one country to another. But what will the narrative be . Good morning. I think it is relatively less. It is the second quarter. We know already what that one was. I think the story forward will be the one interesting. We are relatively worried about that one. We think q3 growth will be easy because q2 was lockdown. It is normal that growth was very bad. Q3 will be reopening, so growth will be strong with 8 slightly increase in q3. You only compensate for a small part of what you have lost in q2. This is really where the story is going to be. How fast and how far can this recovery be . We are skeptical. In our forecast scenario, we have minus 7. 9 for this year and 4. 3 for the next. By the end of 2021 we do note get back to where we thought we would be a year ago at the same time or where we even were at the end of q4. That really is the part we need to watch out for. That is interesting. That helps us cut through the quarter on quarter katie and look at the underlying story if you like. How nervous are you about the underlying virus developments. We watched various parts of europe with sw, from france, to germany, to places that up to now have had a very good crisis such as greece. Are you concerned about you about local flareups in these countries . We are. To a certain extent when you increase mobilities when you reopen your economies, it was to be expected that we would get new infection rates again. The problem is we do not have a perfect tracing and tracking system in place. Potentially even cross border, and that makes things very complicated. Our base case is predicated on the assumption that tracing and tracking can avoid you from getting local breakouts growing bigger. You get the kind of surgical approach to lockdowns, to outbreaks, and there by you keep it sort of under control. What we are seeing at the moment is everything us a little bit more worried because we have the impression that the increase in cases is broader based. What we have learned in u. S. Data, and what we also learned in the swedish example and what we are seeing in europe is consumers responding quickly to. That we saw Consumer Confidence in the euro area, and no longer in some places and declining. If that is due to increase in the virus, that would potentially make us respond in our very own way and take our own precaution even without lockdown. That we con not dissect. Both factors would suggest there are risks to recovery. And there is a risk that we are plateauing early. We are watching the virus numbers closely for the risk of this response. And what kind of up side surprise could there be to your numbers, or up side revision to the numbers you have at the moment if we see a vaccine . I guess that depends on a calculation of how long the vaccine takes to roll out and how consumers will behave in the meantime . Yes. We just released that this morning. The vaccine is tricky. The timing matters a lot. In our base case that i just talked about. We assumed some sort of pontiff vaccine or treatment and tracing and tracking next year. The scenarios is about the timing of the vaccine. What if we do get a vaccine in january, and it is available without supply constraints and distributed quickly so by the end of q1 we have a sort of inmanute. In our scenario that could bump g. D. P. Growth higher. Maybe we are talking about 4 bnp 3 or 5. 5 in our next years number. It would be a confidence effect in q1. In q2 it you would front load. You might go to the restaurant. You may travel at more than before. But all of that, it would bump g. D. P. Growth higher, but the point i would make is that we will have lived with the situation for more have been damaged in the economy. Unused labor be it in the form of unemployment or short term week will be high. That comes with disposable income losses. You cant shrug off all of that after one year of virus. So yes, the vaccine in early 021 would be an up side, but within limits. All right. Interesting analysis. Thanks evelyn. Bank of America Global Research. She stays with us, and we will get further thoughts from her on what is going on in the euro zone. Boris johnson is lifting the lockdown in england, but can he keep virus numbers under control . We will discuss next. This is bloomberg. Welcome back to the european open. We still have 35 minutes to go before the start of the cash Equities Trading. But it is friday. Boris johnson is resuming lifting the lockdown in england. Casinos, theaters and bc parlors will be allowed to reopen. But there are tougher penalties for hakem who break social distancing rules. Travelers from the netherlands will have to quarantine for 14. Evelyn is still with us. We will get back to our consideration on the euros, but your thoughts on the u. K. As the latest headlines here are about reopening parts of the economy. What is the underlying eek story at the moment . Are you looking for the bank of england to do . Will stimulus play a bigger role . The story from an economic perspective, us that is a systemic shock. The virus hits everyone in a similar fashion. What we expect in the u. K. Is the bank of england will respond to the weakness with further easing. Their last report or their last communication was a little bit milked. The presentation was hawk i guess, and the press conference was raur dovish. We think given where we expect the bank of go, eek land. That means 100 billion of q. E. In november, a rate cut to zero and a cut in the p. F. X. As well. This is our base case because the economies really need all the support they can get from budgetary, fiscal and monetary policy. Yes. And so from the u. K. , we will wait to see whether we get physical tal stimulus. You have had time to look tu eurozone bailout funds. How is that going to be in shoring up the economy . It is 700 billion euro at 2018 prices. That is more than 5 of e. U. G. D. P. We think the recovery from the next generation is very powerful in terms of political message. Europe has become an option again. You eliminate the immediate down side risk in terms of physical given the plan is over six years. We are not sure how much impact it can deliver very early on. Ok. Interesting signals though. Evelyn, thank you so much. Bank of America Global Research economist. This is bloomberg. Welcome back to the European Market open. Mix. Es u. S. Futures point higher. Eu Foreign Ministers will hold a meeting to discuss the situation in belarus. At 10 00 a. M. This morning london time we will get the second reading of the euro area gdp data. At 10 00 am, russias largest crude producer publishes its secondquarter results. It is set to return profits by gains may not be enough to offset the companys earlier losses. And u. S. Retail sales figures for july. They are expected to read gain continue rebounds. 7 31 in london. Time to talk about one of the companies that has reported earnings. The Danish Company looks to deleverage amid the coronavirus uncertainty. We are joined with the Maersk Drilling ceo. To speak with you. Outlook pping your keeping your outlook. What visibility do you have around this . We have very clear visibility. As we have said, we do not expect to have any significant contract that will influence the outlook. What you are looking at is what is in the book already. What about next year . Will impactthat 2020, but what about 2021 . Anything you could tell us about how that straightens out . Big call most of the Oil Companies put when covid hit us, we see companies on the way back. Especially norway, where there has been some tax relief, virtualize new investments. It is in the territory and with customers that we tend to work for. We have a lot of talk about filling the pipeline for 2021 and we do see it also in other areas where we pulled. N the handbrake some of the customers in the areas on deepwater are doing the same looking at how they can get back with the project they put on hold. Your numbers, you have taken a noncash impairment charge. You say that reflect the current market situation. What is that based on . What does that represent . A technical adjustment in the account. Danish, wes with the have to look at that every time we publish accounts. For us, every half year. We had withlook ebita, abbott. This is the if petition for the future. That is afflicted in the impairment we have announced. We have seen your rivals going to chapter 11, preparing for bankruptcy. Other companies could follow. Is that setting the stage for consolidation . Is. Think it it is what we expect will happen. First of all, we see the oil majors have been out projecting that they expect Oil Prices LowerGoing Forward. They will have to work with contractors who are able to help them lower the cost of their products. Many chapter 11s on theway, we do expect American Companies will take the opportunity to restructure the company both to create the larger units, but also to make sure the supply side is going down. And yes, given the right opportunities, we will be ready to be part of that. You have said this morning you remain alert to any opportunities that may arise. Have you seen anything of interest yet . We have not entered into any deals. They probably would not have been value creative. The expectation from sellers has been far beyond what buyers like us would have been wanting to do. We are in the midst of the restructuring. It is often difficult to do any kind of deals there. There will be companies coming out that are going to be interesting to talk to. Weve course also are alert to the fact the new owners may want to structure their business in a new way. We are ready to engage in those kind of talks. Anna things to watch. How many rings do you have operating at the moment . How do you see that developing . Well, in the first half of of year, we have utilization 66 and for the latter part of the year, i think the numbers are a little bit below that. Thanks very much. Really good to speak to you. 736 here in london. Lets get a Bloomberg Business flash for you. Is suing apple and google from a Longstanding App store rule saying payments must be made through apple. Toc begin offering customers settle. Says apple and google are anticompetitive. Over trillion dollars to settle u. S. Diesel issues in fallout from vehicle production. Billiony includes 1. 5 for Environmental Protection agency. The rest of the classaction investigation brought on by consumers. India plans to restrict huawei networks. M its 5g it comes as relations between the countries hit a four decade low following Deadly Border clashes. Thanks very much. Program, his plans make it more secretive. Filings do today. By next quarter there may be fewer funds to report. What does reduced visibility mean . Anna 20 minutes to go until the start of cash Equities Trading. U. S. Futures point to the upside. The global push to develop Coronavirus Vaccine is accelerating. It may not be the end of the crisis. The ceo of novartis spoke with francine lacqua. I see this as shades of gray as we look at the vaccine. We will likely have a vaccine that is viable sometime before the, lets call it the middle of next year. I expect a vaccine may not have the optimal efficacy. It will not be fully characterized. What i believe is with 70 vaccines in development, by next year we will be able to have a vaccine we are confident in. Practice, wens in have to make difficult calls. Efficacious enough, what is safe enough, and with limited supplies, who will need the vaccine in the nearterm . Is there a danger we are developing a vaccine without fully understanding the virus . It is difficult to know who to vaccinate first. Cells andd it with t others with antibodies. We are moving at breakneck speed. There are many open questions. Typically the experience has been to develop a novel vaccine takes 10 years. It takes that long because we want to deeply characterize the vaccine, understand in many populations, in phase two studies, then go to phase three studies and follow these asians for a year. Patients for a year. We are skipping phase two and going to largescale phase three studies without understanding the biology of the virus. I think given the scale of the pandemic, i understand why that is being done, but i think it is really important we support regulatory agencies to have rigorous standards. The worst thing would be we roll out a vaccine to fast, you lose public trust for a future vaccine for covid, and perhaps more importantly, we lose the Broader Public Trust in vaccines in general, which have saved billions of lives over the last century. You helped develop the h1n1 vaccine which only took six months. Is that because we had a different basis . When you go back in time, with influenza pandemics we have built up so much, we have manufacturing facilities, technologies we deeply understand. In a sense what we do with pandemic influenza is we have the architecture and we change the cassette of the virus. We know pretty well we are going to generate a strong effective immune response. In this instance we are doing everything new. Platforms are new, the virus is new, the human population has never seen this kind of virus before where it is, influenza, we have influenza every year. We did not noting succeed in developing a vaccine for the first sars outbreak or mers which happened two years ago. Only partially in respect to ebola. Withve to be humble figuring out is a vaccine safe or effective. Ceohat was the novartis speaking with bloombergs francine lacqua. You can catch the full episode of leaders with flacqua during the first week of september. Lets get a Bloomberg News update. Calling on the u. S. Government to require masks for the next three months. He says that approach could save more than 40,000 lives, adding, it is not about your right. It is about your responsibility. Donald trump saying it would be unenforceable. Israel and the United Arab Emirates have agreed to begin normalizing diplomatic relations. The deal was brokered by the u. S. A key step toward peace in the region. The sides will hold talks in the coming weeks. Israel has agreed to suspend its efforts to annex parts of the west bank. Palestinian officials called the move a betrayal. The white house has no plans to do away with payroll tax altogether despite donald trump saying he would repeal it permanently with another term. The idea of doing away with the tax is unlikely to get support in congress. It could drive up the deficit trillions of dollars. Plus spell the end of Social Security payments. Controversy in the u. K. Around student exam results. Boris johnson is defending his governments handling of scores, but students are complaining they may have had their grades downgraded. Teachers gave an estimate which was put through an algorithm. Global news, 24 hours a day, on air and at quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. This is bloomberg. Anna thank you very much. By the end of the day today, u. S. Equities must submit their holdings to the sec. This might be the last 13f report as we know it. Regulators are proposing a change that would reduce the number of firms that need to report. The sec says the cost is too onerous. Joining us to discuss is dani burger. How would this change what we usually learn about Investor Holdings . We get a lot less insight into who holds what. A huge number of firms will no longer have to report. The threshold has been proposed to raise to 3. 5 billion area currently it is 100 million. A lot of wellknowns like tempora, soros, they would no longer have to report holdings. When it comes to visibility of ownership of stocks, one of the sectors that will be most affected is energy. We will not know. We will have about 16 or so less of energy data on who owns those stocks. The other big sectors, we will not get much visibility, include health care for example my consumer services, according to ihs market. Iss is an issue to know what being crowded into. Goldman sachs for example, they have a proprietary model that follows Hedge Fund Holdings and a lot of it is based on 13f data. It will be harder to determine what is crowded, but you can invest in based on the hedge funds. When it comes to types of hedge, alternative hedge funds will know less about what they are doing. A lot less visibility into them. So we make it fewer clues as to what others in the market are doing. Learn if it is passed or not . Filed proposal was first last month and now enters a 60 day comment period. We have another month the public can still submit their concerns. After that we will learn the fate of this bill. So far just 10 days after they filed according to goldman sachs. They are over 230 comments against the proposal. The fcc chairman who was handpicked by donald trump has really made it his mission to take pressure off of smaller firms by making their regulatory requirements for filing, for showing Different Holdings and things like that, to take those pressures off of him. Off of them rather. Do not be surprised if because of that we do indeed see this passthrough despite the negative comments. Anna thanks very much. The lastway from trading session of the week in summery feel in terms of the volumes we are seeing. The Market Driving narrative as well. Stocks to watch, including daimler. The company paying more than 2 billion to settle. Welcome back to the European Market open. Eight minutes to go until the start of cash equity trading. Lets get to the market and focus on what we expect at the start of the trading day. Annmarie hordern joins us. Let us start with easyjet. Easyjet is getting cash. They completed this leaseback program and the sales of 23 aircraft. They are going to get north of 600 Million Pounds at the upper end of anticipated. The funds will be used to maximize liquidity. This is something the Airline Industry needs. This could further help strengthen easyjets financial position in the wake of the pandemic. There are plenty of businesses trying to shore up their finances area finances. We have had news overnight around u. K. Quarantine. New countries added. What impact to be expect . We have to watch the entire travel industry today. Hotel groups and intercontinental as well as the tunnel operator and of course the airlines like easyjet, ryanair. The u. K. Has added france, the netherlands, and malta on the 14 day quarantine list. If you are in one of those countries, when you come back, you are going to have to selfisolate for 14 days. Thinking about how this could impact the leisure index, in saw the index dropped more than 3 . Thats going to be a key focus in the market open. Anna we will keep an eye out for that. Traveling from the u. K. To france will be interested. And daimler. This story keeps going, doesnt it . Certainly. It is a huge headache for the Auto Industry that is already trying to shore up finances in the pandemic. Daimler, theyre going to have to pay 200 billion for emission issues. It resolved issues that started when the u. S. Started to step up their examination of the Auto Industry following the scandal of 2015. The u. S. Auto industry, Auto Industries around the world, are still far from out of the woods with u. S. Regulators. But daimlers financial headwinds, this does not help, but it is relatively minor when you look at what daimler is paying when you look at what vw had to pay. Keep an eye on the mining sector. Impact in relation to other European Markets. They offer alltime allure to income investors. We have seen a dividends cut by many sectors including this one, but the minors deserve more credit for Balance Sheet strengthening in the past five years. In focus thisor week. Coming outcome of the market open. Futures points. To the upside. Nasdaqures, s p and futures up by between 0. 2 and 0. 4 . European futures point to the downside. States we united continue to see positivity. That was the focus of the jobs data we got out of the initial jobless claims data yesterday. The open is coming up next. Anna one minute until the start of cash equity trading for this friday morning. Is added to the businesses, beauty parlors can reopen. 3200 poundsssue fines for not wearing a mask. Was arrested on trumped up charges. Palestine pushes back against the groundbreaking agreement between israel and the uae to normalize relations. President trump says there is more to come from diplomatic efforts in the region. Welcome to this hour of the program of Bloomberg Markets europe. Future suggesting we would be weaker at the start of the trading day. There is not a great deal of conviction. We seem aimless and Global Markets the last 24 hours. U. S. Futures point to the upside but not so much. That does not translate easily into what is happening in europe. Lets look at where we are on European Markets. Stoxx 600 opening to the downside by 0. 1 . The ftse 100 down 0. 3 . We have seen the ftse 100 nsx story in there. The cac down. He ibex down by 0. 4 we do not have a great deal of earnings news, but we have had a and withean corporates daimler and the like, it is interesting to see how we get movement at the start of trading. Easyjet, an interesting move, down 5 at the start of trade. European equity markets are opening slightly to the downside after a directionless close to the week in the asian session. Provide anyll that momentum for european stocks. We will speak to shanti kelemen, director of investment, Brown Shipley co. We have a gdp number out later. A second reading, and therell be huge diversions from germany to spain. How does the gdp numbers we are seeing come through in europe and build here Investment Strategy . Shanti jv numbers are something we look at gdp numbers are something we look at. How does that match up with what is affected. What we have is a multispeed recovery by sectors even within sectors there is diversions. Within countries there will be diversions. One of the things that is interesting is countries that have reopened have different rates of infection even with fairly similar strategies. It is a number that is important to us, but we recognize forecasting is difficult because data is volatile. We do not know what governments will do in the future in terms of lockdowns. We are thinking about what our earnings forecasts for 2020, 2021, 2022 when we think about investing for the future. Anna looking into the future, bes is a question that may tommy and nearterm. Too nearterm. Mm we have these new rules from the u. K. Around quarantine. Not specifically around quarantine from france of u. K. , the netherlands to the u. K. , it underlies the narrative that further restrictions might be necessary in europe. Shanti we believe companies that are the strongest that have strong Balance Sheets and market shares will come out on top. In the travel industry is actually challenged, but that view does apply to them. We would not want to invest in peripheral players with a weaker Balance Sheet. We think the stronger players will be able to raise capital and do merger acquisition. With travel it is subject to the virus which we cannot predict. It is subject to government decisions. What we are seeing in the u. K. Is the government wants to do what it can to avoid a lockdown. Localave been swift to a lockdown and travel quarantine. That will continue in the future. Onwill probably weigghh bookings. The difficulty is the infrastructure is not there in the u. K. To take those holidays in terms of facilities. I cant speak from experience. Let me ask you about the euro. Eurodollar some progress to the upside. Its eighth set for straight week of gains, the longest winning streak in 16 years. Does that upside continue . We think the dollar will continue to progressively weaken. The euro will strengthen a bit. , andve the Recovery Fund that is a huge step forward in terms of issuing bonds at the european level. We think that takes away residual risk about the eurozone that is present in the euro, or european equities. We think that is a big step forward. When you look at the dollar, we have continued government and action and difficulties making decisions where they cannot agree on additional stimulus. We have a huge amount of debt coming into the u. S. And we have the virus more under control in europe. The mobility data in europe is better than the u. S. Indicating that europe will continue to improve whereas the u. S. , we worry Economic Activity may ratchet down as they try to control the virus. Anna shanti kelemen, director of investment, Brown Shipley co. With us here this friday morning on Bloomberg Markets europe. We turn our attention to United States next. New u. S. Jobless claims fell below one million for the First Time Since march. We will look at the state of the u. S. Economy next. This is bloomberg. Anna welcome back to Bloomberg Markets europe. Into the european trading session, and European Equity markets under pressure. The futures picture down 0. 8 . The cac down 1. 1 . Negative,es flat to given they spent much of this morning in positive territory. Here is laura wright. Laura daimler is paying over 2 billion to settle legal issues, the latest fallout on vehicle pollution. 1. 5 billion with Environmental Protection agency. Classaction litigation by consumers. Out byis set to be shut india, they plan to restrict the Chinese Telecom giant. Comes as relations between the countries hit a four decade low. That is your Bloomberg Business flash. Wright ink you, laura london. About the state of the u. S. Economy. Nancy pelosi and donald trump are putting down opposing wages on where the economy is going, and who gets the blame if it goes south. They are 1 trillion apart on a stimulus deal. Republican when negotiators are ready to meet in the middle, democrats will fit down. Perhaps we mistook them for damn. Dy who gave a unless they see the reality of what it means in the lives of the American People, what good is it for us to agree to something that has no relationship to meeting the needs of the American People . Meanwhile, new u. S. Jobless claims fell below one million for the First Time Since march. More americans are seeking work the at the peak of financial crisis. The economic rebound remains gradual. Shanti kelemen, director of investment, Brown Shipley co. Is still with us. How essential is another round of stimulus from the u. S. Congress . It will depend on the size, but how essential is it . Shanti Consumer Spending is a huge part of the u. S. Economy, and what drove the economy over the years before the virus. It is important. An view is they will get to agreement and introduce stimulus, even if that is just 1 trillion, that is still 5 of u. S. Gdp, fairly significant. There is consensus around having some form of increased unappointed benefits and having additional checks sent to americans. Those of the most important things for individual consumers in terms of keeping spending up and enabling people to make rent payments, food on the table, things that are vital. Anna in terms of your assumptions about whether agreements between democrats and republicans on this matter, on fiscal stimulus, i suppose it gives you mixed feelings when you look at positive data out of the u. S. Initial jobless claims are better, retail sales are better, does that remove some of the impetus to find a compromise . Shanti i do not think it will for the democrats. Both sides probably note they need it. The data is slightly improving. There are a lot of jobless claims and high unappointed. That far exceeds what we have seen in europe because of the different ways they have been able to support wages. There, itt will be could drag on into september. With the election coming up, both parties want to be seen to do something to be cooperating and helping the American People in order to be reelected. Anna i was reading analysis morning that said as treasury yields move higher in the u. S. , maybe this means a barbell is appropriate where you capture banking names that might rise with higher interest tech, the techs boom some might see continuing. How do you approach u. S. Stocks at the moment. Shanti we have a bit of a tilt toward growth oriented stocks. Weve ever technology and health care within the u. S. Allocation that we have. Wellally, growth performs when growth is scarce, that is what we are seeing now. Growth is hard to come by within equity market. You can see violent swings back to value style, but we reduced our health care allocation a bit because we wanted r equity allocation to be a bit more aggressive in case there are positive announcements about mobility coming back and vaccine developments. We do not think those are fully priced into market. Anna thank you for your time. Shanti kelemen, director of investment, Brown Shipley co. She will continue the conversation with us on Bloomberg Radio at 9 00 a. M. U. K. Time. Coming up, countries are spending billions on a Coronavirus Vaccine, but the ceo of the novartis is warning a vaccine may not be enough. This is bloomberg. Anna welcome back to Bloomberg Markets europe. European equity markets moving to the downside, down 0. 8 . 1 . Cac down the German Market down 0. 5 . The ftse 100 down 1 . The german utility increase profits in the first half of the year. Matt miller spoke to the cfo. There is so much money around from the fiscal stimulus programs and support from Central Banks that prices are going up. Equity markets for other enterprises. To see not expect unusual opportunities to buy existing assets at a low price, not in our industry. You see matt you see inflation because of the green new deals. Is it becoming more competitive . It is becoming more competitive. You have seen the announcement of the big Oil Companies, knows the prize they are interested because it is an attractive sector given the Market Growth we can expect in the next decade. What is needed to be successful, you need the expertise, which we have. Money. S no scarcity of the Market Growth is there. Competition over time increases. It as a challenge. Matt what about demand . At thed there was a lull beginning of the pandemic, how does demand for power look now . We see by the half year, core downts, power demand is around 5 , in some markets a bit more. It is too early to tell. We will see coming out of the summer break. Year we see an impact of 3 to 6 . Lower demand from last year. We are volume. That was matt miller conducting that interview. Lets look at the movers this morning. Names, of these travel we have seen the new quarantine rules come in in the u. K. Easyjet in focus, selling and leasing back aircraft. It is down 5. 3 . Turning to technology, epic games is suing apple and google after the tech giants removed the fortnite game from their app test, in a case set to anticompetition. Apple claims epic broke the rules when it offered its direct purchase plan. Epic has accused the tech giants of running a duopoly. Alex webb joins us. How did we get to this where these tech giants are having a public debate over store commissions with a popular game maker . Antitrust conversation brewing about most of the big tech companies, apple, google, amazon, in apples case it focuses on the revenue slice they take from the apple store. Drops to 15 . A lot of developers are not happy about this. Ibmargument is when dominated the pc market in the 1990s, they did not take a cut of every piece of software that could be installed in an ibm computer. Apple is very much, what is apple doing to justify this . This is very much a duopoly. Here onat is at stake terms of the apple side of things . What is at stake for the apple store as far as revenue exposure and mobile games . Alex not much at all for apple. Makes been reported apple about 360 billion 360 million year from fortnite. They make 270 billion in revenue. Apples actual revenue is concerned, the bigger concern might be you have 100 million fortnite users. If they are going to choose what theirhone to buy based on ability to download fortnite, they can still download fortnite on android. Even though it is in google plays store, samsung has its phones operating on the Android System but also has a samsung store. Different stores you can download things from if you are an android user. Realistically it is around the fringes of the reason people might by smartphones. Itis unlikely, but alone could curb apple sales. It is more the image, the cool factor for apple. Talking morestart perhaps that does not play well. And it points toward apple increasingly wants to generate more revenue from services. Ofle is offering a series description bundles. Alex our colleague got this apple great story, but has different services. Apple music, apple tv plus, arcade, their own gaming subscription service, and they are readying a subscription were you bundle these together to get tv, music, and it will be cheaper to get them individually. There will be a tiered version where you can add apple arcade. Keeping people tied to their devices because the more people who use tv plus and apple music, the more likely they are to buy an iphone. If you can tie them to apple services, that positions them further. Amazonn a similar way to trying to generate more loyalty to some services around their businesses. Alex webb joining us with a number of angles on that apple story overnight. Coming up, normalizing relations, israel and the uae make a potentially historic breakthrough in the relationship in what is hailed as piece in the region. Peace in the region. Including protests from palestinians. Not everybody united in praise, but significance to talk about. European equity markets are weaker this morning, down 0. 6 . 0. 9 . Wn u. S. Futures stay flat, although nasdaq futures outperform. This is bloomberg. Anna welcome back to Bloomberg Markets europe. 30 minutes into the trading session that sees us lose ground in europe, down 0. 6 on the stoxx 600. We are focused on one sector, travel and leisure, down by more than 2 now. We had a great deal to focus on with the u. K. Quarantine story shining a broader like on the fact all is not well in europe generally when a comes to the fight against the virus. We are seeing increasing caseloads in certain parts of europe. We see reaction travel and leisure, down 5. 5 . Geopolitics,k to there have been developments to talk about. Israel and the uae have made a potentially historic breakthrough in their relationship. It is hailed as a crucial step toward peace. This is a historic moment, not since the israeljordan peace treaty was signed more than 25 years ago has so much progress been made toward peace in the middle east. Anna not everyone is thrilled by the agreement. Palestinian officials call the trai asion able betrayal. What are the finer details of the deal that has been signed to normalize relations . It signals we can see a swap of investors and commercial ties that would include air travel. For israel, it would mean temporarily putting on pause the annexation in the west bank. Depending on the outcome, we have to see how successful these countries are in limiting these normalizing of ties. This, clear of winners are these three countries, a big victory for joeld trump, falling behind in the polls, and this could potentially give him a boost, especially if they have more of a pomp and circumstance signing relation. Joe biden praised the agreement but he did not praise donald trump, and says it follows multiple administrations building ties in the middle east. The Big Questions are, what does a temporary annexation mean . And what does it mean for the remainder of gulf arab states . , saudiger uae neighbor arabia, what does it mean for Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman . Changeow does this broader relations in the middle east . Annmarie clearly this puts iran back up against the wall. We are at this point in relations to the fact there have been growing distrust amongst arab gulf countries about iran. We have seen them working behind closed doors because of distrust. Sentimentntiiran that will be escalating if other gulf arab nations were to join this pact. The palestinians immediate said this was a betrayal and recalled their ambassador in the uae because of this. This morning we heard turkey give their position, they say they are backing the palestinians. Many are praising it as a historic breakthrough. Thank you very much, annmarie hordern. Stick with politics, eu Foreign Ministers will hold a special meeting to discuss the situation in belarus later today. Germany and the 20th have called for renewed sanctions on the nation, and the this comes as authoritarian leader claims a landslide victory in the president ial election that led to a violent crackdown on protests. Euning me now is bloombergs editor in brussels. We have seen protest activity taking place through the beginning of this week. Many people locked up. What do we expect from todays meeting . Good morning. Byn the 27 ministers meet videoconference, we are not too many deliverables. They will mostly discuss the situation, and most likely they will put off concrete decisions on sanctions until another meeting which is expected at the end of the month. A decision expected at the end of the month, but will we arrive at sanctions . Countries led by lithuania are pushing for a mediation process with belarus. Their hope is that they can andcalate tensions sanctions will not be necessary. They have made it clear that if things do not get better, they want sanctions on the table. It is unlikely the eu would move quick enough to impose sanctions at todays meeting, but it is something that will be discussed. And a lot of countries will join the list pushing for sanctions. Areen, the Czech Republic in support of sanctions. You. Thank up next, back to work. What does the pandemic have to do with Career Development . We will speak to an occupational psychologist, maire kerrin next. This is bloomberg. Anna welcome back to Bloomberg Markets europe. 39 minutes into the trading session at is losing a little ground. Stocks in europe down 0. 7 . The ibex showing weakness. A Bloomberg Business flash with laura wright. Paying over 2is billion to settle legal issues, the latest fallout from vehicle pollution. Includes 1. 5 billion with an agreement with the Justice Department and Environmental Protection agency. Softbank is pumping 1. 1 billion into wework, as the company weathers declining membership. Spot, it isright seeing renewed demand for Companies Looking for office flexibility. Our link also so cheap, not even apple can resist. The latest tech company to join corporate insurance for 5. 5 billion. The iphone makers sold bonds including a 40 year security. That is your Bloomberg Business flash. Anna thank you very much, laura wright in london. In hong kong where media tycoon jimmy ly says he was arrested on trumped up charges. In an interview with bloomberg tv, he is overwhelmed by popular support. He also said he thinks the National Security law has already had an intimidating effect. I dont know what they are trying to do. It is passion of support. Back. New it would drop us. Le want to support they are buying up the stock. When i came out from the police station, i said do not by. Do not buy. You lose money. They bought her newspaper at 1 00 in the morning they bought our newspaper. They wait for the publication of it. Hong kong people support. Support for the newspaper and. Xpression of anger sharesrally and your seem shortterm. Possiblyonsider issuing more shares to take advantage of this. Do you have any plans given the uncertainty surrounding your future of divesting . You on 71 according to the latest data you own 71 according to the latest data. I think this is an honest way to do it. What is the future of apple daily . We will proceed. There is no doubt. You serve a role in this community. You have been critical of the government, critical of china in an International Financial center. People say you need dissenting media and a platform for these voices to be heard. Are you practicing selfcensorship and monitoring what you are saying on your digital platforms . We cannot do that. The National Security law, people want to toe the line. Change what we have been doing. We do not think what we are doing is wrong. We are practicing the freedom of speech. That is it. We are letting the community hear the voice of their own, that is what we have done. If that is a crime, we cannot do anything else. Do you have plans to divest any of your holdings . At least from march 2019 is the latest data we have on your shareholdings, 71 and change. The you have any contingency plans to do vest or sell those shares . No. I will not divest my holdings in apple daily. We have digressed. We have our cousins in taiwan, the biggest newspaper in taiwan. And online. What is a contingency plan . If you are convicted, we have to talk about that prospect. I think business will go on without me. That was the hong kong democracy activist, founder and lai speaking to bloomberg tv. Engleeekend stephen speaks with pivotal figures chasing the story. It was an historic moment when Democrat Joe Biden picked Kamala Harris to be his running mate. Harris is the third woman ever to be picked as Vice President of nominee, the first black and indian woman. As a woman in the put fear, she is facing criticism. Our political reporter covers the stories, why such criticism to senator harriss announcement so significant at this time . 2020 is shaping up to be another record year for american women in politics. I bring that up in context to senator harris because as she ,ade her announcement, 24 hours less than 24 hours after she made the announcement she was labeled as mean, mad, nasty, angry, aggressive those were some of the comments described about her, and a lot of them echo what prior women running for Major Political office like hillary clinton, sarah palin and Geraldine Ferraro faced to their campaigns. Many people, especially the younger electorate, feeling need to call this out given that a record of female politicians are running on both sides of the aisle. They will potentially be subjected to similar attacks. Even before senator harris was named, a growing movement of women were preparing to not just make this about senator harris, but use this time to educate people and call people out when there is sexist or racist terminology being used toward women in positions that men sometimes are not subjected to. It is important to think about the language used in these situations to describe peoples character. On the subject of diversity, you have been speaking to the ceo of times up which fights against workplace harassment. What did she tell you . Interesting, we heard from several Business Leaders this week in reaction to senator harris. It was notable hearing from ursula byrnes who called this moment something to cry about in a good way. I spoke to times up, and i want to play a little bit of what they told me, and why it stuck out. Called President Trump senator harris it sounds like it is not a sexist word, but it plays into the idea of women not belonging running for leadership. It is sending that message not just the senator harris but our daughters. And to our sons about how they see women in leadership. That is why culture change requires us to call this out. Was times up on thursday with me. The bottom line is we know that women should be able to be successful in driven without labeled as too aggressive or ambitious. Throughout this election season, we will see more people speaking up about it and being conscious of the linkage we are using. It is sending a message to the next generation about how society sees women in positions. We have 80 days to go until the election, you can anticipate there will be more focused on senator harris and all the women running in the selection. In this election. Anna thank you very much. Up, we speak with kyle swap this is bloomberg. Anna welcome back to Bloomberg Markets europe. He stoxx 600 is down 1. 2 some continuing weakness to intensify for European Equity markets. U. S. Futures down 2. 4 . The global push to develop Coronavirus Vaccines is accelerating, but it may not mean the end of the crisis. The ceo of novartis spoke to my colleague, francine lacqua. I see it as a state of gray as you look at the vaccine. We will likely have a vaccine viable some time before the mid of next year. It could be the end of this year, but i expect it may not have the optimal efficacy, will not be fully characterized or have largescale manufacturing capacity. Developed bycines the end of next year, we can solve those constraints and have a vaccine we are confident in, largescale manufacturing. What that means in practice, we will have to make difficult calls. What is efficacious enough, what is safe enough, and in limited supplies who will need the vaccine most urgently in the near term . Those are complex discussions we need to have with the Public Policy community in the coming months. Is there a danger we are developing a vaccine without fully understanding the virus . It is difficult to know how it mutates or who to vaccinate first, given we do not know if people fight with t cells or antibodies . We are moving at breakneck speed. There are many open questions. Typically the experience has been to develop a novel vaccine takes 10 years. We want to characterize the vaccine, understand the patient populations, do studies, go to largescale phase three studies, and follow the patient for a year. Andre skipping phase two going into largescale phase three studies without understanding a lot about the biology of the virus. Given the scale of the pandemic, i understand why that is being done, but it is important to support global regulatory agencies to have rigorous standards. The worst thing would be to rollout a vaccine too fast, lose public trust for a future vaccine, and more importantly lose the Broader Public Trust on vaccines in general which have saved billions of lives over the last century. Francine you helped develop the. 1n1 vaccine in six months did we have a different basis for that . Influenza pandemics, we have so much knowhow, manufacturing facilities, technologies, we deeply understand. What we do with pandemic influenza, we have the architecture set up. Then we know pretty well we will generate a strong and effective immune response. In this instance we are doing everything new, platforms are new, technology is new, the virus is new, the human population has never seen this kind of virus, whereas we have influenza every year. There is a lot more complexity with this vaccine development. We did not succeed developing a vaccine for the first sars or mers, and only partially with ebola. To we have to be humble in figuring out if a vaccine is safe or effective. Anna that was the ceo of novartis speaking with francine lacqua. You can catch the full episode in the first week of september. Breaking news from indonesia, it is to finance its 2021 deficit with central bank cooperation. The government has asked the central bank to help fund the deficit. Will this caps on, explicit cooperation between Central Banks and governments. Will they water down various mandates they have been given . That is the picture out of indonesia. In europe, equity markets are weaker. U. S. Futures point to the surveillance is next. This is bloomberg. England,ry t france, and the netherlands limit travelers, but some museums and theaters can open tomorrow. Backlash. Reallyk against the is agreement with uae can normalize relations. Lai, hong kongs jimmy says he was arrested on trumped up