Yes, a fed meeting at 2 00. None of it matters. What matters is the drama, the guys fromof four Silicon Valley lined up in front of congress. And oh yeah, the stimulus. What has your attention . Jonathan funnily enough, the Federal Reserve, but only because somebody people are playing it down. A lot of people have shaken their head. What was the last three months about . We are about to see a shift away from the accommodation we have seen towards much more Forward Guidance, and the commitment, the shift in the reaction function to formalize that commitment to low for a whole lot longer, and i think that its important. Tom the queen of the xaxis, lisa abramowicz, is here. Are we going to go out to 2023 today . Lisa the question is where. Are we talking about the front end . Clearly they are not going to raise rates anytime soon. What are going to be some of the measures they look to to decide what their policy is . Are they going to set inflation pegs . Are they going to set implement pegs . And is 2 set employment pegs . And is 2 inflation relevant . Tom we are going to do full facing credit here right now, but what has ig done . Lisa not much, and that is because they flatlined. This belief that they will you depressing borrowing costs, you are seeing Companies Take advantage of that. Going forward, at what point do fundamentals start to matter again . Tom jon, do a data check, and then why dont you with the real yield, your property that we see on the weekends, why dont you bring in are good guest. Jonathan you see how he does this . Gives me permission to do a market check. Tom you do a market check jonathan i am going to take this slowly. Equity futures look like this this morning. We are up 0. 2 on the s p 500. Single currency, we rolled over in the last few minute. A bit of Dollar Strength kicking in. 1. 1721. Ar, yields up a single basis point, 0. 59 on the u. S. Tenyear. Lets bring in priya misra, Td Securities global head of reits strategy. I think you agree with me that this is more important than people are letting on later today. What are you looking for in the News Conference with fed chair jay powell. Priya it expect dont expect the changes in the statement. It is all about how he sets the stage for Forward Guidance and how does he frame the. Hughey see frank how does he frame qe. I have been waiting between the lines. A lot of fed officials have been talking about more accommodation one way to provide more accommodation is to change the narrative from being about market functioning, which it did agree, to now provide accommodation to keep longterm rates low. I think if we get that shift in narrative, the markets are going to understand that the fed is going to move further out the curve. I think we have started to price this in. If you look across asset, the dollar, gold, real rates all telling you that the market is setting up for effectively normal qe, which is the intent of qe is to turn longterm rates low. I think you really need to hear that from chair powell. Jonathan when you hear governor brainard say things like we need to shift away from stabilization to accommodation, do you hear yield curve control . Priya i think she has been a proponent of yield curve control, and we working it was going to happen this year, but from recent communication, not everybody is on board. It is a new policy tool. How do you get out of yield curve control . I think it is going to be in the toolkit, but something they can do from the existing tools is link Forward Guidance to inflation, effectively suggesting a much more dovish reaction function. If they had this in 20, they would not hike. I think they can in 2016, they would not hiked. They can effectively provide accommodation, giving them time. I think they may have to do that next year. Lisa this is huge, the idea that the fed could say we are going to actively try to suppress longerterm borrowing costs for the United States, basically monetizing the United States debt. That would have a torpedo effect on the dollar, wouldnt it . Priya i think part of the week this is the market listening to the fed and saying that is probably the next step. But absolutely, i think if they are clear that they are going to keep longterm rates low, that should weaken the dollar. A lot does depend on what is happening globally. If Global Growth is going to research, that is going to take the dollar weaker. I am not sure that Global Growth necessarily picks up, so i think that will put a floor on the dollar. Plus, we have an election coming up. Tom tell me about the labor economy. Im sorry, it is part of their mandate. It is not good. Thedo you take the prism of labor economy unfolded over into lower for longer . Priya i think generally it is part of their mandate. When we look at the labor market, i think we have seen the improvement from reopening, also from stimulus. Our fear is the labor economy is going to start to stall. As we reopen to a new normal, parts of the labor economy cannot get back to normal. Tom but this is important. Ive got to make some news here. Are you in the glide path of steve major at hsbc, or what we see out of some of the people at jp morgan, for a lower 10 year yield that could threaten zero bound . Priya yes. I think for the zero bound, it is a little bit hard, but we actually do see lower 10year gilts in the near term. You are seeing the recovery stall, and you have a dovish fed that is going to start buying up the curve. It could actually julie it could absolutely touch in the nearterm. Jonathan how do you have some kind of call on the year curve when you have a fed step in with yield curve control, even if you think Inflation Expectations are going to pick up because they will tolerate higher inflation . Havent you got to tolerate the fed . Priya right. I think there is a reaction function component, and then there is the data. We cant extrapolate from any of the economic data. The improvement seems to be all about reopening. We are looking at these highfrequency measures to try and estimate. We are all becoming virologists. Looking at the rates. But if you clarify the reaction function, the market can look at the data and start to price in what happens to rates. We are also seeing supply demand. I think the buying becomes extremely critical to how and where exactly is the tenure where exactly is the 10 year. Lisa we are all becoming epidemiologists because this is a health problem. If the fed comes out and provides even more accommodation, what does that do at this, with near record low borrowing costs across the board . Priya i think it buys time. Lets say we get a vaccine soon, and i hope that we do. It could take a while for that to be effective for consumer confidence, Business Confidence to come back. Until we get get the Public Health response, until we are actually going back to normal, then they can take it back. Isaac that is the key to prevent some dive in conditions because suddenly there is optimism about a vaccine. So they can be more preemptive. You can take risk premium out and help risk assets. We have done a great job so far, but i think they may have to do more on treasuries given how much supply is going to come down the pike. Jonathan we love catching up with you. Priya misra there of Td Securities. Lisa knows what tom hates, the idea that a central bank will pick a point at the long end of the curve, just sit on it and not let it move. Tom it is a trite experiment, but we are not japan. Jonathan but the treasury market is not the jgb market. Tom i just dont get it. Jonathan you brought up the payrolls report in the coming weeks. Let me bring you the estimates on that. I think despite is going to be interesting. The high estimate is 3. 3 billion. The is one million. Just how practical that payrolls report is right now, between people who think we might get a negative and for the month of july and some people think might get more positive reads. Tom i think it is all out there. It is crazy what we are going to see on august 7. My bowtie has been a disaster all morning. Jonathan what is wrong with it . Tom it doesnt look good for radio. Jonathan do you think we should switch one day, for a Charity Event . Tom we should do that. Lisa what charity . Tom this is a french startup company. Theederated hermes, one of two. Lisa what charity should that go to . Jonathan people will have to write in. I would love to do that. I think it would suit you. Coming up on this program, tom porcelli, Rbc Capital Markets chief u. S. Economist. Heres the price action. S p 500 futures up nine. We advanced by 0. 3 . The dollar making a bit of a comeback in the last 30 minutes or so, stronger on the day. That means eurodollar comes back down to 1. 1726. The 10 year, 0. 59 . We are really trapped in this very tight range, still in and around 60 basis points. Outside of that, futures up by 10 on the s p, and gold just a little lower, down 0. 1 . From new york, this is bloomberg. The first word news, im ritika gupta. Senate republican leader Mitch Mcconnell insists that businesses, schools and other organizations need protection against coronavirus lawsuits. That has bogged down talks over a new stimulus package. Mcconnell is demanding that changes to Liability Law include in legislation. Policymakers will turn their attention to how to jumpstart post recession at the fed. The fed releases a statement at to a em new york time at 10 00 at 2 00 p. M. New york time. Amazon Ceo Jeff Bezos plans to Tell Congress that his company is an american Success Story with a relentless focus on customers. The worlds richest person will strike a patriotic tone for his appearance before the house antitrust subcommittee. The u. K. Is moving to step up supplies of future coronavirus vaccines. It signed a deal with partners at gsk and sanofi to prepare as many as 60 million doses of their experimental shot. In hong kong, the economy shrank for the Fourth Quarter in a row. Andcoronavirus pandemic caused global news 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. Im ritika gupta. This is bloomberg. The fed is really the only game in town at the moment. No one is looking at the data. No one is necessarily talking about the election yet. Not that many people are back in their office, and yet the market is just shrugging their shoulders and saying the fed is going to be there to backstop it. Hendersonthe janus head of global bonds. The only game in town. Ahead of the market open, equity futures up by around zero point 1 on the s p 500. A little bit of a lift. We are up 12 points, let me correct myself. Eurodollar, 1. 1726. 0. 58 is your, yield. I think it is really interesting what chairman powell is going to have to say in this News Conference, added expectations that they will have to formalize Forward Guidance. Tom linking in labor to what we see with the fed today, tom porcelli Rbc Capital Markets. What do you see right now, and what do you see forward . Tom p one of the interesting things that i think is probably underappreciated is if you look at Something Like wages and salaries from the personal income spending report, you would think that obviously, just looking at those in isolation, that they have fallen. And they have fallen pretty dramatically, about 10 from the precovid level. But when you add Unemployment Insurance from the personal income and spending report, what you actually see is that wages right now are about 5 above where they were during the precovid period. Theres been a significant amount of backfill from a lost wage perspective. The reality is much of that has been saved. You can see that quite clearly in the incredibly elevated savings rate. But theres a lot of ammunition out there. I think until people really feel comfortable about where we are from a covid perspective, i think it probably winds up sitting in savings at the. Jonathan how do you expect the chairman to navigate the News Conference . Tom p hes done a pretty good job of treading pretty carefully. Thats been true for the last several fed chairs. They really havent inserted themselves that dramatically into the fiscal conversation, although you can say, relative to even prior chairs, they are much more inserted than historically speaking. But we think chair powell would continue to tread very carefully, driving home not that z, bute doing x, y, or that help is necessary on that front. That is where we are. We continue to see fiscal stimulus as a reality. We dont think this is the last program. There could easily be another one by the end of the year. Lisa priya misra was talking about how another aspect of chair powells testimonies today may be with respect to market functioning, how qe has traditionally been used to smooth out the kinks in the market. That clearly is not a problem anymore, based on where borrowing costs are. When did that become a fallacy, based on your experience at the new york fed . Tom p how do you mean . Lisa in the sense that it is no more about arkin functioning, bond purchases. Now we are talking about lowering rates in order to encourage risktaking appetite. Tom p the fed has been pretty clear about this. Qe is now officially part of the toolkit. It was funny they sort of acknowledge that only recently, but that is the reality. I think that is going to remain part of the backdrop for the foreseeable future. Begs the question, what are they going to need to be on that . I think that qe in its current form, thats it. It is the equivalent of, in terms of usage, fed funds. It is now a standard part of the toolkit. I dont know if there was ever a fallacy associated what it was trying to do. I think it was always pretty clear from our perspective theory from our perspective. I think they are just stating the obvious. Tom k to go back to my original idea here, if we get your Unemployment Rate to go to wherever youve got it, may be down to 6 unemployment, does that dampen wage growth, salary growth, benefit growth in america . Tom p we do think that the unemployed freight is going to remain relatively elevated. By the end of the year, you will be lucky to get down to 8 , so we do think there is some dampening effect. Tom k so what do wages do . Do we end up with something a little more robust because of all of the stimulus . Tom p i think you have to disentangle these ideas because i dont think you necessarily need wage pressures to see a robust outcome from a gross perfect because of all of the stimulus in place. One of the things we have been fond of highlighting is if you look at the level of savings prior to covid, seasonally adjusted, etc. , at an annual rate, we were running at 1 trillion. That is where savings was in the quarter prior to covid19. Today it is about six times higher. Think about that. It is six times higher. That is obviously the of stimulus the effect of stimulus. Theres quite a bit of ammunition that the consumer can unload and not be able to prepare Economic Activity in a really robust way. I think it is a really interesting part of the conversation. One of the things we have been saying about q3 is that you were going to see a pretty rocksolid bounceback. Consumption grow at 0. 0 pace for the three consecutive months in the third quarter, you still see about a 30 increase in. That is how much higher the june level was relative to the early part of the Second Quarter levels. So you are already starting at a very high base from a growth perspective. But if you throw in the idea that the consumer actually unloads some of that savings, we were talking about looking at a cartoon initially high q3. A plus 100 it in q3. Let me be clear, that is not going to happen now. The very one sided conversation about the rising case counts has really quelled any of that idea that you could see this enormous burst higher, but that is what you would have been staring at. Again, just to wrap that whole idea around your original, that has nothing to do with the organic wage pressures. That is fiscal stimulus. Jonathan i am pleased you cleared that up at the end because you know people would have written a story that tom porcelli is looking for 100 gdp growth in q3. [laughter] , Rbc Capital Markets chief u. S. Economist. He kept going back to that point, the amount of savings on the sideline. What is the catalyst to get that to snap back into consumption spending . Tom k youve got the washington derby, the text derby, the fed derby, the the tech fed meeting, and the stimulus. It is the story america right now of the haves and havenots, in terms of comfort within this pandemic. It is just historic. Jonathan jonathan well said, tom. Coming up on this program, megan greene, Harvard KennedySchool Senior fellow. This is bloomberg. You doing okay . Yeah. This moving thing never gets any easier. Well, xfinity makes moving super easy. I can transfer my internet and tv service in about a minute. Wow, that is easy. Almost as easy as having those guys help you move. We are those guys. Thats you . The truck adds 10 pounds. In the arms. Okay. Transfer your Service Online in a few easy steps. Now thats simple, easy, awesome. Transfer your service in minutes, making moving with xfinity a breeze. Visit xfinity. Com moving today. More voluminous hair instantly. All it takes is just one session at hairclub. Introducing xtrands. Xtrands adds hundreds or even thousands of hair strands to your existing hair at the root. Theyre personalized to match your own natural hair color and texture, so theyll blend right in for a natural, effortless look. Call in the next five minutes and when you buy 500 strands, you get 500 strands free. Call right now. upbeat music jonathan from new york city, this is bloomberg surveillance. We are live on bloomberg tv and radio alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz. I am jonathan ferro. Futures drifting higher. A little bit of a lift in the last 20 minutes. Up. 33 on the s p. Inre is zero move settling around 1. 1729. The euro move. 24 hours from now well have jobless claims america. The estimate 1. 40 3 million. We have stalled. The improvement is not there in the last couple of weeks and for many people that is a concern. Tom the single message. High frequency data really matters right now. I agree with you, claims tomorrow at 8 30 is a huge deal. Taking economic and folding into the megan greene. She joins us right now. Your twitter feed is great. You have a spectacular retweet from new York Magazine of evictions and of rents to be paid august 1. How much are the elite in washington missing the tangible reality that x percent of america cannot make the rent august 1 . Megan they are missing it in terms of eviction protections, but also in terms of extending enhanced Unemployment Benefits, which as you know the republicans are still fighting about within themselves, let alone between the republicans and democrats. I think the point there is this cash cliff for a lot of people on the ground is getting caught up in party politics. Tom our last conversation we talked about the build in savings rates. That is the family people building up their savings. You have any estimate of what portion of america is struggling . Megan it is impossible to come up with that number because it is such a granular question. , the statistic you cited, 25 of people are not making rent payments in new york city, have not done so since march. Scale that up across the economy , it is a lot of people. This question on whether we should give people 600 a week or 200 a week, the answer is to go bigger than smaller because consumption is the biggest piece of gdp and i think we will see that will have fallen off a cliff. Lisa we talk about employment. Tom has done a good job of talking about the haves and havenots ahead of the fed meeting. Why weext column is create so many crap jobs in the u. S. And what we can do about it. Are we seeing that in the pandemic. On the other side we expect the crap jobs to be the one that gets the most traction rather than the better, higher paying jobs. Megan that is not an official title. It is not a judgment im making. Low hours, low wage jobs. We have increasingly shifted towards lowwage, low our jobs we are creating, and we need to figure out how to upgrade those jobs. We need to figure out how we can create new jobs that are already high hour, high wage jobs so people can make ends meet so we do not have these Hourly Service workers hit so hard in the face of a crisis. It is going to be difficult, but now is the moment we need to be thinking about it, particularly in the runup to an election. We need to be thinking about unionization, market concentration, and retooling the economy or sustainability in Climate Change is a nobrainer. It was a nobrainer before the crisis, now more so. Tom early morning. Inathan, i know you slide 6 52 to get ready for Bloomberg Radio and television. Even the conservative framework is saying put the stimulus on right now. Even conservative economists are saying do not let up on the stimulus. Jonathan continuing claims set around 60still million. That will be a concern if that is the number. Megan greene, if you went to one of those fancy testimonies and there was a conversation about the 600 enhanced Unemployment Benefits does incentivizing people going back to work, holding back labor supply, what would you say to them . Megan there is no evidence for that. I do not think that is the case. I do not think the numbers play that out. Furthermore we have had a bounceback and jobs, but that is largely because the ppp loans did what they were meant to do and lots of people were hired. It is not like to it is not like new jobs are created. People if they could find jobs, they would be. They are not hanging out on unemployment, which has expired and may not be reupped instead of going out and getting jobs. That is completely wrong. Jonathan given where we are with this recovery plateauing, flattening out and away many people anticipated. You went from shutdown to reopen , and then you flattened out, what is the optimal policy response . What would you suggest . Megan in terms of fiscal policy, reupping has already been done given we are still taking out of a hole. Most important of all is the virus. Until we can contain that, until we come up with treatments or vaccines, there will be no economic recovery to speak of. Confidence is key and we will not have that return until he managed to get the virus contained. It is not a question of a quick stimulus. It is more a question about social distancing and locking people down and addressing new cases as they spike. Powell isr today jay expected to come out with an accommodative stance. Perhaps he will talk about the stimulus in washington, d. C. At this point, do you think the more accommodative Federal Reserve is helpful or hurtful in taking pressure off of washington for a fiscal stimulus which is what is needed to get the economy back on its feet . Megan neither, honestly. I think the fed has done its job. It has gotten rid of the dislocation in the market and has gotten borrowing costs to low levels. There is not much more the fed try to goad than congress into doing their job and passing some kind of stimulus. I do not think there is a huge moral hazard at this point in terms of the fed having done the heavy lifting and congress not worrying about it. I think Congress Knows they need to pass another fiscal stimulus bill. I do not think the fed can hurt or help at the moment. Have had like eight conversations on this today. The moral hazard is the massive financial repression we have off the nominal yield in this country. We destroyed the concept of saving. We made Dividend Growth in the 10 year yield. This is not normal, is it . How do we extricate ourselves from this massive negative real yield and a near zero nominal yield . Megan that has already happened. That has been the case for a while. That is not down to todays meeting. The answer is we do not extricate ourselves from this for a while. Borrowing costs need to remain low given the economic crisis we are facing. I think we are stuck in this for a long time until we see unemployment come down. I would not be surprised if unemployment picks up in the july payrolls report rather than going down further. Until we see inflation, which i do not think we will see for a long time, we might see some but not significantly among above the fed target. Jonathan a quick lesson with you. I will be the student, you are the professor. The experience of japan and europe of negative interest rates. Tom porcelli of rbc was on the program. If we want to negative in the Federal Reserve and had negative deposit rates in america, would people save more or spend more . Megan firstly, i do not think that will happen. I did not think we will have policy rates in the u. S. Negative policy rates in the u. S. There is little evidence in europe and japan negative rates have pushed people to spend. I think we could end up with an increase in savings and that exacerbates the spending glut we have globally. That makes secular stagnation even more here to stay than it already is and it will keep rates low for a long time. I think it would cause people to save but i do not think we will have that move. Jonathan megan greene there, Harvard Kennedy school fellow. Isnt that the issue . The negative rates in europe and japan have not led to the outcomes president mario draghi started talking about we need to be low now to be higher in the future. Rates have gone lower since then. Not higher. Tom it is a longer question then we have right now, but what i would suggest is everybody listen to david folk from deutsche banks. It is not in the textbook. It is made up. It is an experiment and ongoing. The effect on incentives is unmeasurable. Jonathan the pressure on Central Banks will increase. Septa rollover. You heard megan greene looking for a negative print perhaps. Lisa, the headlines about the layoffs have been building over last couple of weeks back to airbus a number of weeks ago. We are seeing more evidence this morning. Lisa boeing saying they will cut more jobs in addition to the 10 workforce reduction they announced earlier. They are slowing production because people are not flying. This puts the heart of the deflationary feel. What can the fed do to get this going if people are not going out . You and i both, this is the right sized side of things. Businesses look at the economy and understand it is not getting back to normal anytime soon and they right size the business. Tom i have never seen the unit to sweezy right now. Today, the unit decline they had was shopping. It is cliche. It is new territory. Jonathan some of it is depressing. Coming up, capitol hill. The fiscal and the tech hearings. That is where the focus is today. At 2 00, fed coverage on bloomberg tv and radio. Coming up on gold, Dennis Gartman. This is bloomberg. Ritika with the first word news, i am ritika gupta. Mitch mcconnell has drawn a line in the sand on a new stimulus package, insisting his proposed changes to Liability Law be included in the legislation. That has bogged down tops between trumps representative and the democrat. Nancy pelosi says it shows mcconnell is not serious about reaching a deal. Mixed views on the coronavirus pandemic front. Florida reported a Record Number of deaths, but new infections are down in two states, california and arizona, and a positive test rate in texas is lowest in a month. Mixed views on the coronavirus pandemic in the u. S. Joe biden says he will pick his Vice President ial nominee next week and tells reporters he will let them know as soon as he does. The president ial nominee has pledged to pick a woman run a mate. The candidates include four black women, among others. Visa is starting to benefit from the slow opening of American Cities but the Credit Card Network is not ready to predict what the next weeks of spending will be a. Will be. In hong kong, the economy shrank for the Fourth Quarter in a row. Hongnavirus pandemic kongs gdp fell a worse than expected 9 in the Second Quarter from a year ago. Ae Unemployment Rate went to 15 year high. Global news 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. I am ritika gupta. This is bloomberg. One of the reasons we are cautious on the market in the s p 500 overall in terms of not expecting more upside through year end is we expect there payback from the stimulus we have seen, the biggest stimulus is behind us. On then Jill Carey Hall stimulus behind us and ahead of us. Later i will be catching up with samantha azzarello. Looking forward to doing that on uber tv later on. Onve an important gas bloomberg tv later on. You have an important guest. Tom Dennis Gartman. This is the most important conversation on gold. This is the equivalent of Gary Shilling on low interest rates. A shout out to the bulls and the equity markets. Gartman nailed gold. He went further and said not only own gold, but own it in yen and euro. We get an update from mr. Gartman. Off of your reports, you are out of gold. How can gartman be out of gold . Dennis i am practicing social distancing in the gold market. It has become too crowded. Yogi berra was talking about a restaurant in new york and said nobody goes there, it is too crowded. I cannot get people interested in gold two and three years ago, and out it is frontpage news. Now is the front page of every report, it is the front page of magazines, it is the lead article on radio and television, and i think it has become too crowded. Tom how much of a pullback you need to see to become enthusiastic again . Dennis i have always told people in a bull market there are three positions, really long, modestly long, and neutral. At this point i am neutral. How far down to ic it how far down joy need to see it go . 1775 toded back to 18 to 1800, i would be a buyer. Do i think we will get that kind of correction . We will. Highl say 100 for many and im a buyer again. Tom what is the cattle lisa what is the catalyst for a selloff . Dennis the market is way too crowded. Nothing more than that. You might see the fed become ass accommodative, discussing less expansionary policy towards its balance sheet, some kind of comment from a federal official might do it. A turnaround in the dollar to a stronger dollar which i do not think will happen. , weakness in it the stock market might do it. Too many people are involved in the gold market. There is one position everybody has, that as long and people have to be taken out of that trade. Lisa weakness in the stock market causing a selloff in gold. Does this mean the correlation between gold and a risk off feel in markets is broken . Dennis sometimes gold and stocks go up together, sometimes they go in contravention to each other. For the last couple of months, as gold has gone up, so has stocks. I think there a great probability that conventional movement, that Consistent Movement will continue a while longer. I think stocks are extremely expensive. If stocks start to tumble, you will get a selloff in the gold market. Tom what people do not understand is the Dennis Gartman newsletter was 12 pages long each day and the back three or four pages were on the political philosophy of the nation. I know there will be four hipsters in front of congress. Rumor has it you were going to be the fifth horseman and you are not there. What is congress doing going after the value add capitalism we have seen out of Silicon Technology . Dennis is a bad decision but they will do it anyway because that is leftwing philosophy that seems to dominate the news media. It will be terribly ugly, almost as ugly as what we watched yesterday with the attacks upon mr. Barr. I do not think it will be a pretty day. Tom you and i remember the bloomberg headline where the Justice Department walked away from the microsoft litigation years ago. What is your advice to these guys about how to patiently get through this . Dennis that is exactly what they should do this. Patiently get through it. Try not to smirk, try not to laugh, try not to walk out. Answer the questions with yes or no answers and to be as genteel as you can possibly be. Tom genteel, you own that. I want to go back to the equity markets where lisa was before. You say they are overpriced but they have a bid. I have to participate in a 401 k . Im not trading like doug kass, i know you are on the couch doing the robinhood thing. If i am in a 401 k , i have to participate. How do i do that . Dennis it is still a bull market and still a long torn a longterm bet on the benefits and the attributes of the american system. Five years from now stocks will be from the lower left to the upper right of where they are now. Shall they be from the lower left to the upper right in the next six months . I have my doubts. I think being less exposed after 30 rally in the nasdaq makes sense to take some of that off the table. Raise a little past, cannot hurt you at all. Lisa lisa emails in and says when you get a chance, tell us to go along gold again. Mr. Gartman, brilliant on the moonshot we have seen in yen and the euro as well. Dow futures up 41. Have amazing how you call or a belief and then you have to wait for it to occur. Most people do not have that patience. Lisa this idea of a crowded trade is by design right now. The fed has created a crowded trade. I am wondering at what point do you fight the fed. That is what you are doing. Mistake orting for a people to realize perhaps they have too much faith in the fed, in physical support, and that could be a potential trigger. The flood of the flood of liquidity, the earnings yield, the dividends you get on stocks are starting to looking good to investors. Tom youre absolutely right about you do not know how you get there, you make a call like long gold. You do not know the eight ways you get to that successful outcome. You never do. Trade,u get the crowded which certainly we see within the moonshot of gold right now. I am not giving an opinion on gold. I know lisa is. I am not. Lisa you have gold bars in your bedroom. I have oil, you have gold. What we have today is an exceptionally busy goal an exceptionally busy day. We have the fed meeting at 2 00. Incredibly good guests involved. Before that, a Double Barrel 12 00. We will have the tech hearings, they will be extraordinary. The introductions will be there. While they are introducing the tech hearings, lawrence cop will join us. He has with General Electric and this is an important conversation, much more than ge culp onwrence industrial america. Dow futures up 38. Gold 1975 an ounce. This is bloomberg. Good morning. Jonathan from new york city for our viewers worldwide, good morning, good morning. The countdown to the open starts right now with 30 minutes until the opening bell. Equity futures positive. 33 on the s p 500. What a day we have coming up on capitol hill with tech hearings and the fiscal debate continuing. Jay powell facing off on a News Conference and we are looking for him to build on the words of governor brainard, the ship from stabilization to accommodation. Like we will shift and Monetary Policy from. Tabilization to accommodation. Onathan governor brainard people trying to work out what it means for the coming meetings. Lets begin the program with michael mckee. Michael a lot of people divided over what governor brainard