United states, and it is simple. He wants to get this thing done now. Jonathan he was asked specifically about some of the details in a News Conference yesterday evening. He took a sidestep. He is leaving the swing to secretary mnuchin. Weve got a real fiscal test, and yet this equity market is still doing ok. Futures this morning up 11. Tom it is an absolutely fascinating tape. Point, lisa is going to talk italy, spain, something. Look at where the vix is. Crisis over. Jonathan dr. Talk about the data 90 minutes away, initial jobless claims. To seehis will be key the deceleration, potentially even decline in job growth. At 11 00 a. M. , the other backdrop is the widening deficit in the United States. The u. S. Treasury set to announce their plan to set sales of debt. Later today, Major League Baseball is kicking off with a shortened season, the shortest since 1878. The think is against the Washington Nationals cardboard cutout fans. Jonathan it is the shortest season since 1878. Thats the best part of this for me. Can they keep it this way . Tom for those of you worldwide and in the National Hockey league, can we have a moment of silence for the premier league that absolutely nailed this . Jonathan that was your moment of silence. That was it. Theyve done a decent job. I agree with you. Tom liverpool had that Television Last night. I believe they want. There will be a tots celebration in a bit. Jonathan i will get the price action and move into the markets, if you dont mind. Up 0. 3 on the s p 500. Eurodollar breaking out. Through peek of life 1. 16. It is approaching that level again. The dollar breaking down. In the bond market, take a look at the italian 10 year. A break of 1 . What is important here, if you believe in the fiscal backstop in europe, italy should start trading more and more like a sovereign. The spread over spain doesnt make sense if that is your argument. That is the spread to watch, italy over spain. To what degree can that spread close . Tom i know you like math on thursday. If you take the yaxis on that italian piece, you get a curved line. Accelerationere is in that move as a sovereign credit. Thethan lets help conversation this morning with sebastien page, t. Rowe price head of global multiasset. 70 people come on programs like this and talk about an expensive stock market. Can you talk to us about an expensive bond market, please . Stocksen right, look expensive for sure, but bonds to me, especially treasuries and safe bonds in general, look even more expensive. If i go on my bloomberg and look at the real yield for the 10 year u. S. Treasuries, i get 88 basis points. If i invest in safe bonds in the u. S. Right now and i hold, i am going to lose money. We end up neutral between stocks and bonds. We dont think stocks are in a bubble necessarily. Tom any time say the real yield, we have to defer the next question to jon ferro. Jonathan if that how it works . Is everything pricing off of the deeply negative real yield in america . Tom generally speaking, when the discount rates come down, all else being equal, and that is a big all else being equal, valuations come up. Whether you look at nominal or real yield, depending on how the expectation changes, you can in theory justify your valuations. That explains part of the rallying stock. To peter hooper at Deutsche Bank essay this morning that showed if we get into this compression of yields, we make it a massive need for stimulus. The calculations of Deutsche Bank for stimulus are extraordinary. Do you just see that out there, that we run out of options and bonds and weve got to go to ever greater fiscal stimulus . Sebastien i think thats correct. One of the highest estimates i have seen for the global stimulus measures between fiscal , monetary, all over the world is 24 trillion, if you include some potential measures. Think about that, 24 trillion. The size of the stock market webally is 50 trillion, so are talking about stimulus measures that represent half of the total market cap of the global stock market. We are getting more money relative to stuff to buy than ever before, and we are getting it three times faster than ever before. Lisa i am buying your cause here and saying stocks perhaps look better than bonds. So why are you selling stocks right now . Sebastien we benefited from the recovery, and there are risks to this rally. To be clear, we are neutral. We think now is not the time to be a hero, if you will. Some of the key risks are what you are talking about on your channel this morning, the political uncertainty. The stimulus relative to fiscal in the u. S. And the deadlines we are heading towards. It looks like a cliff. We need 1 trillion to be confirmed asap. The number one risk is the course of the pandemic. We have learned that this is not a oneway process. The recovery from the pandemic is not a oneway process. So there are risks. Sentiment remains fairly low. Believe it or not, this has been kind of a paranoid rally. If investors were still bullish and stocks were in such a bubble, why would value stocks, the cyclical stocks i know you talk a lot about it on your show why would cyclical stocks be down relative to Growth Stocks if investors were so bullish . If you get sentiment indicators, whether it is positioning more surveys, they have improved, but they are still in the bottom quartile of their history. So a lot of this uncertainty is priced in. Lisa what would make you deploy some of your cash into stocks right now . Sebastien we did have some dry powder, and we are looking at really, it comes down to the course of the pandemic in the u. S. We are looking at improvements in the political situation and just better valuations as well. If we were to get a pullback, that would give us an opportunity to add back to stocks. Depending on the reason for the pullback, of course. By the way, we do have some cyclicality under the hood. We are neutral stocks versus bonds, but actually long some of the Asset Classes that do well in the recovery historically and that havent done well yet. We are talking an overweight overweighttocks and emergingmarket credits. So where valuations are attractive, that is how we are playing this market. Sebastien,t this, as cash as an asset. You are telling me equities are fully priced, bonds fully priced. At t. Rowe price, is cash a legitimate asset . Sebastien it is an asset when you want to have shortterm dry powder. A lot of our investors are very longterm investors, and they amounts of cash for frictional issues. But we have learned in this recent selloff that having dry powder when things get really bad and you dont want to have to sell credit, it helps to have in aon hand to buy stocks market selloff, which is what we tend to do. Jonathan what do you make from the quoted Morgan Stanley . Over time, cash becomes risky as opportunity costs mount. Not everyone enjoyed the best performance performance for the s p since 1938. Some people believe if you stick in cash, there is some career risk. What do you say back to that . Sebastien completely agree, and i am talking about a diversified portfolio were you id 5 where you add 5 . In this market, now is not the time to be a hero. Investors should not go all the way to cash. Ultimately, if your time horizon atrelatively long, we look six to 18 months, stay diversified. Stay invested. Jonathan fantastic to catch up with you. Cap to get you back on the program soon. Looking ahead, initial jobless claims, 1. 3 million is the estimate. That is a problem. We are stalling out. Tom i can honestly say six days ago, when we last looked at it, i never would have thought i would say this week was more important. And we see stimulus, the shortfall on twitter which goes across all of that media, cocacola with revenues down 28 , the jobs this the jobless claims numbers may be the most important single statistic in america. Jonathan and the conversation around enhanced Unemployment Benefits is so flawed. The idea that it distances devises that it disincentivizes a return to work, i understand the concept, but here and now, theres very little evidence of it in the aggregate data. If you believe that, explain the less payrolls report. By were wages down . Wages were down because the low wage segment came back to work. Tom this is a big issue on 600 a week or 125. Whatever the number, it is huge. It is enormous come of the difference between Living Expenses in new york city versus name another geography. Jonathan i would go one step further. I think there is a political argument republicans are trying to push. Their message, we think you should be paid more to be at work than out of work. If that is the argument, make the argument. But if you are going to say it is stopping people returning to work, that might be true in the future. With unemployment where it is right now, with the amount of people out of a job and the amount of jobs available, i am not sure the data is there to back that up. Tom i agree strongly the data here is suspect. The modeling i have seen this for 21 and implement. Jonathan we will touch base with Kevin Cirilli and washington, d. C. In just a moment. Coming up shortly, Ralph Schlosstein, evercore cochairman and coceo. This is bloomberg. Ritika with the first word news, im ritika gupta. China may retaliate for the closing of its consulate in houston by closing the u. S. Consulate in hong kong. The editorording to of the global times. Comments have frequently been a tipoff to at the government does. President trump now expanding federal Law Enforcement operation to chicago and albuquerque, new mexico. That sets up a showdown with state and local Democratic Leaders who have denounced the president s federal agents in portland, oregon. The president says his goal is combating violent crime, a move seen as an appeal to his conservative base. British Prime MinisterBoris Johnson trying to head off support for scottish independence. Tensions have been growing between the government in london and edinburgh. The coronavirus pandemic and holding other referendum. Tesla reported positive earnings for the Fourth Quarter in a row. Still, that is not good enough for ceo elon musk. He thinks tesla isnt growing fast enough. Shares have quadrupled since march. Global news 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. Im ritika gupta. This is bloomberg. We are setting out clear expectations for how the Chinese Communist party is going to behave, and when they dont, we are going to take actions that protect the American People. Jonathan mike pompeo is not holding back, coming out swinging towards the Chinese Communist party through much of 2020. From new york city, good morning. Alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, im jonathan ferro. , twois your price action hours and 12 minutes away from the opening bell in new york. Equity futures up for a fourth day on the s p 500 coming into thursday. We are up 13. We had some way to the s p 500. You 10 year yield, 0. 6 . Eurodollar showing some 1. 1588, up 0. 16 on the session. It speaks to the breakdown of the dollar more broadly. Tom the breakdown is tangible on the blended index, dxy. No question it is breaking down. I look carefully this morning at the tradeweighted Deutsche Bank index for the dollar. It is range bound. Yes, it has come down abruptly, but it still hasnt broken through. Right now in washington, this could be a two hour conversation today with misters really with mr. Cirilli, our chief washington correspondent. Let me talk about china right now. What is the risk that the u. S. Overreaches here . Kevin i am not sure any republicans or democrats see an overreach. As theey see this risk for xi jinping, especially as xi jinping is going to face some economic pressure and china. I think from a broader, longerterm strategy, it is really about developing an emerging markets. I think that is where the mark warners of the world, the democrat from virginia, previously working in telecommunications, i think that is where you see a lot of the conversation move in the short and longterm. Stimulus, isncy on it properly understood in washington, the timeline of 23, 27, july 31, and the first few days of august when the rent is due . Jonathan i was kevin i was speaking to some staffers yesterday, with democrats, and they feel they have some momentum on their side in terms of garnering the support of the American People to get the stimulus across the finish line, especially as it relates to Unemployment Benefits. When i talk to republicans, theres really two camps. Even the Heritage Foundation camp is somewhat lenient about providing economic stimulus and relief to people right now who desperately need it. But they also want to make sure that for individuals who are able to go back to work, he you are able to go back to work to keep their jobs, that they be able to have incentive to do so and that companies not be left on the hook should they be wanting to provide those types of jobs for their workers. Jonathan the team in washington at bloomberg with you reporting that maybe we get a shortterm extension. That is what the administration is looking for. What are you hearing . Kevin that is likely going to be the conversation dominating in the next 12 hours here in washington. There are some significant breakthroughs made last evening in terms of a shortterm extension. Yesterday i made the comparison to there being a Government Shutdown, a lot of drama and ultimately some type of breakthrough. This is straight out of the Government Shutdown playbook. It is kicking the can down the road, setting off another cliff for lawmakers to get some urgency to get behind. Lisa this comes along with a handful of stimulus bills coming from Senate Majority leader mitch mcconnell. What is the thinking behind a handful of bills rather than one large one to counter the democrats 3. 5 trillion proposal . Kevin this is leader mcconnells playbook, get a bunch of bills and shove them through and try to get it over the finish line. By lumping things like liability protections, things like tax credits for companies that are going to have to be weighing whether or not to have layoffs by the end of the year, he feels that he can get democrats and President Trump to the negotiation table to move it with even more speed and urgency. Jonathan i wonder if this is actually sensible policy. New last time that the huge divide between democrats and republicans could have been addressed pretty quickly if they stripped some elements out of the package and put it to one side. Do you think doing a series of bills makes things a little more efficient to get things that we agree on out of the way now . Kevin yes. However, if you get one lawmaker, whether it is a far right or far left individual holding up the calendar, that is where the piecemeal approach runs into significant problems. Tom one final question. What are you going to look for today on the hill . We are all wrapped up in the back and forth, and as i said earlier, the handtohand combat. What are you going to look for . Kevin i am really interested in the payroll tax cut. I do think it is separate from this broader piece of economic stimulus. However, i think it is a longerterm strategy that goes beyond the shortterm, beyond the urgency for Economic Relief because it speaks directly to the middle class. It is a debate that many republicans have wanted to have for years. I am just seeing how they sell that. Jonathan i get it. I just dont know ace in the republican that has said they endorse it. The only person is larry kudlow. Kevin because President Trump wants to get on the debate stage in a couple of months against joe biden and say i am for the payroll tax cut, you are not, and the middle class deserves a few extra bucks in their paycheck. That is the strategy. If thaty curious to see garners any momentum on capitol hill. But right now, i agree with you. It is a nonstarter for many republicans, including senior republicans. Jonathan great to catch up with you. Busy week down in washington. Tom, this is a nonstarter. The democrats arent going for it. The republicans arent going for it. I am trying to understand why the administration is pushing for it. I think they know it is going to be really difficult to achieve. Tom a lot of this is out of michigan. Michigan is really looking at this, and here is the summary. The most efficacious way to do this is to put a check in the mail. That is all there is to it. Then theres some issues where people say they dont spend it, but theres been a lot of study in this. You are correct, no one out there talks about payroll tax cuts. Jonathan the other issue is that once you give something to someone, you cant take it back. That is the struggle they are having in washington right now. They could have said this is what we will do with unemployment insurance. We will cap it at a certain amount, say it has to be a certain percentage of your previous paycheck, and go forward with that. It was too complex to process it that way. Tom we are all living our experiences. What i see out there is Small Business flat on its back. The urgency of this i cant calculate. Jonathan i agree with you. Coming up on the program, Ralph Schlosstein, evercore ceo and cochairman. This is bloomberg. Jonathan from new york city, this is bloomberg surveillance. We are live on bloomberg tv and radio. Alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, im jonathan ferro. On course for a fifth day of gains in this equity market. The market screen as follows on the s p 500, up 0. 3 . In the bond market, unchanged on the 10 year at 0. 6 . We talked about dollar weakness over the last week or so. In foreignexchange and g10, the dollar doing ok. The euro break at has been the story for many. Eurodollar through 1. 16 briefly. We got that print yesterday. Right now up 0. 1 . Tom euro stronger versus the yen. Euro swissie has been very tight and range bound. I am now joining us, and really looking forward to a good conversation with the guy who has put together a firm of continued success. It is evercore isi, of the great ed hyman, and he is Ralph Schlosstein, cochairman and coceo, looking like he just played a set with michael eisner. We are thrilled he can join us this morning. I want to talk first about your senior chairman, roger altman. I think it is underappreciated how lonely you guys were when you set up evercore. Schlossteinman and do at that time that was so different . Ralph well, i wasnt there. I joined 11 years ago. Back fromerally came his stint at the treasury and thought that the world needed a more oldtime investment bank, one that focused purely on advice, and the very first presentation he made 25 years ago, the first page had the integrity. Ty and ive been here 11 years. The first thing i was allowed to do was change quality to excellence, so now it is excellence and integrity. But it is a great business model. We have people that actually do. He work tom that is a huge distinction, and certainly we have seen that with ed hyman and the others of your principals. How do you readjust and recalibrate out of this pandemic, given the competition of the major banks . Done well, what we have over the last several years is to dramatically broaden the things that we can advise our clients on. One activistumber practice. We are the only independent firm with equity underwriting capability. In the quarter we just finished, we did more underwriting revenues than all of last year, which was a record for us. We have debt advisory. We have restructuring. Advice on hedging. Capabilities in everything that a company would want to do. Tom one important question, and this has come up day after day. You guys have been massively benefited by the stimulus of Jerome Powell and by the leadership of congress. How do you move forward with the american public, with new york wall street and global wall street benefiting so much from the stimulus . Ralph that is, i think, a really important issue. A massiveclearly been effect on the capital markets, both the equity market and the debt market, and that has certainly benefited the trading activities and the shares of the , soe firms and of all firms we have this massive inequality. It was necessary to stabilize the economy, but it has had a much greater effect on the wealth of the wealthy then it has on the wealth of those in need. Jonathan did that compromise your ambitions in any way, shape or form . Ralph no, i think we have to continue to do what we do, but it does, in my private life, make me supportive of people and of policies that are focused more on more equal distribution of wealth in this country. Jonathan give us more detail on that. Is that a shift to the left for you . Ilph know, i asked no, actually worked for Hubert Humphrey in the senate and worked for president carter in the white house, so i wouldnt call it left. Im a conservative on fiscal policy, but i do believe that we need to do more for those who are underserved in terms of income, health care, housing in this country. Lisa given the fact that you are a fiscal conservative, what would you say to companies raising record amounts of debt in order to survive this time, becoming more indebted ahead of a period of slowing growth . Ralph i think the most important thing for every company to look at in the period we have just been through is liquidity. Do we have the cash to survive . And 2009, we learned that Financial Institutions failed not because of capital, but because of liquidity. , we haveeep recession learned also that that phenomenon is more widespread. We spent a lot of time in the last four months Encouraging Companies to put more cash on their balance sheet. The conundrum. We are heading into a period of slowing growth. Why not just file for bankruptcy . Why not renegotiate the debt loads now to reduce the obligations rather than putting their entire capital models in a more precarious situation . Ralph there is some of that going on as well. Issue in termsl balanceo solve ones sheet issues depends upon the output for the business. Type downturn a v and then recovery, then it is just a matter of having the cash to survive to the other side of the chasm. Other businesses obviously are going to be more seriously and permanently impaired, and for them, bankruptcy and recapitalization is the right model. Tom the heritage of evercore forward is on John Weinberg and you. Mr. Weinberg, that name is magical and always associated with goldman sachs. I would be honored if you would comment on the retail experiment at goldman sachs. Can institutions be all things to all people . Ralph do you really want me to comment on that . Jonathan he would love you to. [laughter] shoes,if i were in their it is not the path i would choose. There are two parts of the retail experiment. One is collecting the bottoms. That makes sense because deposits are a much more Stable Funding source than going to the institutional market. I think that is a very sound thing to do. They are paying for much more stable liabilities or borrowing. The lending side of it, i am not a big fan of. ,t is a very crowded business and coming late to the party in my view. Tom as you know, bloomberg surveillance is all about the conversation with experts. We all know your acquisition of ed hymans services a number of years ago. Tell us the intellectual component value of the future of global wall street. How much does it matter that experts will be needed . Ralph it is interesting. We are in every business that meets the following criteria. We compete solely on the basis , yourr ideas intellectual, and your relationships. We are the walking example of an intellectual capital firm. We have two major businesses, the Research Business which you just asked about, and the Investment Banking advisory business. Both of those are fundamentally driven by intellectual capital. Tom one final question. This is of critical importance. We have a viewer that emails in right now, jon from coventry. He suggests i ask you, do you think i could pull off the beard ralph this was a point of pull off the beard . This was the point of debate prepandemic. Ralph you are asking about you . Tom yes. What do you think . Ralph i dont know. You should probably ask those near and dear to you. Tom i did. Jon said no. [laughter] congratulations, Ralph Schlosstein with evercore. Ralph great talking to you. Jonathan i thought it looked good. I remember saying to lloyd blankfein, thank you for making stubble ok. In 20, weve got to make that shift here. It is normal in europe. Tom dont get me started. You had me going yesterday. There are buttons i can push, beards and judy shelton. Lisa there you go. Jonathan weve got to talk about this market. Equity futures up by around 10 points on the s p 500. This breakdown in the u. S. Dollar and the breakout in gold is all coming together with a lower real yield in america. Tom this is a lot of fancy theory, but all youve got to know is it is a surreal moment and the markets are starting to react to it. I go back to the blunt interest of aggregate demand. In thehe revenue deltas airlines, cocacola and such, and it just leads to lower for longer. Jonathan low rates for a whole lot longer. Coming up, we have got to talk about china, the next move after the United States orders the shutdown of the consulate in houston. Up next, Meredith Sumter of Eurasia Group. From new york city this morning, good morning to you all. Alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, im jonathan ferro. Equity futures out after a eak,day winning str adding some weight, up about thorough. 3 on this thursday morning. Heard on bloomberg radio, seen on bloomberg tv, this is bloomberg surveillance. Ritika with the first word news, im ritika gupta. The world has now gone over 15 million coronavirus cases. The u. S. , brazil, and india account for nearly half of all infections. Texas reported the most ever in one day. In florida, Governor Ron Desantis says schools may delay reopening if they need to protect against the risk of the virus. In the u. K. , a pair of lawmakers says Boris Johnson had no plan for the pandemic. The economic response was rushed and reactive, despite it being identified as a top risk for years. The fight over the chinese consulate in houston shows that hardliners now have the upper hand in the Trump Administration. Advisors have pushed u. S. Policy towards its most antagonistic in decades. U. S. Officials say china has a history of espionage and intellectual property theft. In an exit from a video released today, joe biden discusses the death of his son with president obama. The contextded in of protections provided by obamacare. He says he wonders what it would have been like in the middle of treatment to have insurance ran out. He says that could have happened before obamacare. The parent of mercedesbenz plans to make an operating profit this year. Secondquarter results signal that diner weathered that daimler weathered the industry slumped betterthanexpected. Global news 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. Im ritika gupta. This is bloomberg. I have enormous respect for the chinese. I think theyve built an incredible country, economy. But they are not perfect, and i think the Trump Administration has been stronger on china then any Previous Administration in many years, and i think that strength is in certain cases very important to be demonstrated. Jonathan bill ackman there, Pershing Square capital founder and ceo. Alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, im jonathan ferro. I think we are all sick to death of this rising u. S. China tensions. Tensions have been simmering for the best part of two and half years as this administration has confronted the Chinese Communist party. Tom it has been a very careful ramp up. To your credit, i would mention mr. Farrow has been mr. Ferro has been way out front on this. Meredith sumter is the Eurasia Group head of Research Strategy and operations. Course, a profound knowledge of china. What can you add to the conversation . You see the punditry. It is in the zeitgeist right now. What can you add on this thursday morning about this consulate titfortat . Meredith great to be here with you. This is a remarkably unusual escalation, a closure of a consulate outside of wartime is rare. It is one of a myriad of actions to try to put the bilateral relationship on a fundamentally different course. We heard comments that this is strong, but is it effective . What is key here is you see this unswerving u. S. Pressure and speeches from Key Administration officials over the past several weeks. National security advisor ,brien, attorney general barr and of course, secretary of state pompeo, who has called the relationship fundamentally detrimental to the United States. All of this tells you you should expect the u. S. To continue this escalation with china through november, even as most u. S. Officials recognize that President Trump is currently on track to potentially lose in november. Their actions could fundamentally alter the course of the bilateral relationship on the people of change. ,onathan from your perspective are these surgical or are they reactive and unpredictable . Meredith from the u. S. Side . Jonathan yes, i am wondering if there is an ultimate objective, whether this is just ad hoc. Meredith i wouldnt call it ad hoc, but i wouldnt part of a i wouldnt call it part of a grand strategy at all. What is clear is the president has given a green light for his officials to get tough on china, thinking about help them in the polls, although he has been disappointed by that. But president has been very clear that his phase i one trade deal is off limits. So you see this titfortat escalation being pushed by the u. S. Side that gets right up to the breaking point, but is not meant to go over the line. The risk is they could go over the line without knowing that they are doing so. Lisa what happens if the phase as trade deal gets rejected, lee miller of the china beige book thinks it will be soon . Meredith in the immediate term, there is negative Market Reaction and fall off. This is not what President Trump wants, neither is it what wants on the chinese side. What is key here is the phase one deal is increasingly a less relevant barometer of the u. S. China relationship. Even if that deal survives, the broader relationship has pretty much fallen apart. That is going to be the case regardless of whether you have a Trump Administration or a Biden Administration that will come into office and inherit quite a challenging bilateral relationship. All day onld go this, but if it comes down to a game of chicken, maybe you go back to cuba and the cuban missile crisis with mutually assured destruction. It comes down to who is going to blink first. How does that play out . What is the process of how you get through a game of chicken . [laughter] meredith well, from beijings perspective, they are just trying to manage that game of chicken through november, looking at poll numbers and hoping they are going to have a change in u. S. Political leadership. We willthink necessarily have a fundamentally different view of that sort of confrontation with china, but it will be handled in a much different way and a much more manageable way for beijing. Jonathan weve got to wrap up by talking about the response from beijing. Last week, the United Kingdom announcing plans to freeze out huawei. We have learned that china is responding by having a blackout for the English Premier League this coming weekend, the last game of the season. I am wondering other they keep going towards sports. They did this with the nba as well. How effective do you think this strategy actually is . Meredith talk about a game of chicken. China has problems across a whole host of its relationships externally. The question is, does beijing realize the strategic error that they are making . At a time when the u. S. s positioned visavis china and frankly the rest of the world has been at odds with what the rest of the world wants, this could have been an opportunity for beijing, but beijing has fundamentally failed to capitalize on that on the part of using politics and its own political incentives to try to coerce other countries. I think that is going to have negative spillovers. Tom are you telling me that china is going to blackout Crystal Palace and the tots . Thats unamerican. [laughter] jonathan meredith, thank you. Ist meredith is touching on absolutely vital. Whether the chinese president , the leader of the come in of party, is overreaching. Europe for a long time sat on the fence. The United States got more allies. The u. K. Starting to go with them a little bit more. Are more countries going to come with them as well . Tom i am going to do a massive shout out to elizabeth economy, way out front on the idea of the fragility of this experiment by the leadership of china. Jonathan i have no idea if that is ultimately where we end up, but that seems to be the direction of travel. Jonathan it is interesting lisa it is interesting that the u. S. Is gaining more support. I will say the focus of the economy is centering a lot of people on the idea that certain things are off limits to preserve the economic recovery. An hour we are around and 30 minutes away from the opening bell, with equity futures coming in, still positive by about eight or nine points on the s p 500, up 0. 25 . Elsewhere, 10 year treasuries down by 0. 6 . We are really sticky down there. 0. 59 . 1. 16,o approaching breaking that level in yesterdays session. Pretty much flat, giving up the gains of the morning so far. We are on course, up nine points on the day, up 0. 3 on the session. Coming up next, a conversation on credit you do not want to miss. Lale topcuoglo joins us next on bloomberg. Fiscal stimulus gives us that shot in the arm and buys us time to get there. The next part of the v may flatten out a bit because then you reach some social and psychological issues about peoples confidence, and that i think will take some time to recover. We talk about a correction. At this point we are talking about a normal amount of turbulence in the equity market, which would be about a 10 correction. This is bloomberg surveillance with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. Tom good morning, everyone. An interesting