Published in scranton, pennsylvania. Always a tough coal mining economy there. Scranton, pennsylvania at 15 , but you know it is much higher. Normal, andre near willech will it directly address this American Labor economy. Sequentialespite the month on month improvement we have seen, we expect to see some elevated jobless claims again in around 90 minutes. One of the main things people are looking at is the continuing claims, which are expected to tick lower, a good thing, but not that much lower. We will get those numbers at 11 30 a. M. A lot of people parsing the numbers under that, in terms of people getting relaid off after getting rehired. The u. S. Is also selling 30 year bonds. Yesterday, the auction of 10 year notes came with a record low yield of 0. 65 sent. Interesting to see whether the demand will be there for even longer dated bonds amid a deepening deficit. Heading to his childhood home near scranton, pennsylvania. Interesting he is taking a more moderate approach then some more leftwing democrats are calling for. This is coming at a time when he is trying to present himself as an alternative to President Trump, really taking the selection to a referendum on President Trumps tenure rather than a more progressive platform. And the president trying to frame him as the trojan horse for the radical left. We will catch up with Kevin Cirilli a little later this morning. We begin the program by talking about this market. We can bring in rob waldner of invesco. You have been clear, using it is time to move to a more cautious stance on risk assets. Why . Rob thank you for having me this morning. What is driving markets is really policy. About treasuries a moment ago. Real yields in the treasury market are very low. If you look at real yields that continue to decline, we have fiveyear real yields that big 100 basis points. 10year gilts, 80 basis points. Continues to that be active in the market, which is the reason we have gotten this big ounce off the bottom. If you look at june, it becomes very clear the data is what is driving things. We saw Investment Grade continue to rally. Investment grade spreads tightened by about 24 basis points or so in june. High yield did not really as much. Bank loans kind of went sideways. Ig isason for that is very closely tied to fed policy, so our mantra has been i what the Central Banks are buying has been buy what the Central Banks are buying. The fundamentals out of these are not that positive. Paribas talking about nominal yields can stay where they are. The visible Interest Rate that we see. Yet come with rising inflation, those real yields can drive ever lower. I have trouble believing that is a stable process. Will that be a stable process, or do you look for bond price volatility . Think, is trying to make sure it is as stable a process as possible. Take the move index, a measure of treasury volatility. It is at its lows. The fed, with their Forward Guidance in their policy Going Forward will be to try to maintain that stability in the short end of the market at least so that you can have these real yields continue to decline. Obviously there is a breaking and where they may lose control, but that will be well in the future in our view. So they will control the level of nominal rates to some extent. As Inflation Expectations rise, that means yields go down. What does a cautious stance mean at a time when there markets withn extremely high prices, and the riskiest assets where you see companies closest to default priced as such . How are you cautious in this environment . Rob we would advocate to own what the fed is buying. Own what the Central Banks are buying. In europe, it is corporate bonds. In the u. S. , it is ig, it is mortgages. Central banks are driving that. We are a little more cautious on assets that are more dependent upon the economic recovery. The economic recovery clearly bottomed. Ame good news is we bottomed little less down in the United States in terms of the economy as much as we were fearing. But it is not clear to us at all how this reopening process is going to go, especially given the viral pickup we have seen in some states recently. Jonathan lisa touches on something really important. Everybody is crowding into the same trades. Not the first. Wont be the last to come on this program and talk about following the fed, going into u. S. Investment grade area do we need to think about redefining what is safe in the smart in this market . Rob im sure that when i came on the program the last time, i would have said exactly that, fed iss buy what the buying. In june, that work. In july, that will continue to work. Safe, that ist is a fundamental problem for the market because the safe asset now has very little yield to it. As we think about building portfolios, i think it is a portfolio construction question, but with such a low rate of yield for the riskfree asset, we need to think about other assets we can use to support that, and Investment Grade bonds, spreads are over right now where the risk of imminent default is not there. The volatility comes in spread, is managing that volatility. That seems pretty safe to us. Tom where is the unsafe asset . I get the idea of ig, but where do i not want to be in fixed income . Rob well, i think the things you might want to that require so rather than say dont want to be there, where you really have to do your fundamental work is in assets that are more directly tied to specific sectors of the economy. We know the highyield default rate has picked up, running about 3. 5 now. That is not a big number, but hidden in that, there are idiosyncratic issues. No defaults have picked up in energy and a couple of other sectors. Those things that are tied more directly to the economic outcomes, we need to do your homework on. Lisa i find this conversation so interesting because, to your point earlier, a lot of people are following the fed. Initially it was trying to front run the fed. Now it is follow the fed. You are seeing this in flows incoming into the biggest indepth into the biggest Investment Grade etf. Week alone, on of the 202 million overnight. This trend has not gone away. At what point has the fed fully been priced in, and are they going to be unwilling to continue to backstop credit markets, and how does that rearrange what we are going to see Going Forward . Jonathan it is important, and i think rob waldner is addressing the portfolio question of that. In the next downturn, what is going to give me that Downside Protection in my portfolio, with 10 year treasury yields stuck between 60 to 70 basis points on the 10 year . Rob you make a great point. Theres obviously much less downside for yields and portfolios right now, see you have to be a little more sophisticated in how you build your portfolio. Investment grade is a good way to think about adding some safety, but the traditional way of using treasuries as your riskfree asset, to your point, is 100 valid. There is much less downside available in yields right now, much less underlying protection. Jonathan rob waldner, always appreciate your time. Theres a real problem here, and that is dealing with two sharks. The first shark is the shut down. The first stock is the shut down. The second stock is lowered capacity for an extended time, and that is what we are wrestling with right now. Tom i saw a Goldman SachsResearch Note 10 days or so ago, but theres a massive mystery about some aggregate demand within the United States into the third quarter. I would say within days, we are going to start to hear the experts try to frame out q4, which to me is a complete and total mystery. Jonathan a lifetime away. Lets get to the end of q3, shall we . Somewhere close to the election this november. We will talk about the upcoming election and a speech from Vice President joe biden in scranton, pennsylvania. We will catch up with Kevin Cirilli. Down five on the s p, negative a little more than 0. 1 . Alongside tom keene, together with lisa abramowicz, im Jonathan Ferro. Radio, seenomberg on bloomberg tv, this is bloomberg surveillance. The first word news, im ritika gupta. Joe biden will call for a moderate approach towards reviving the u. S. Economy today. Bloomberg has learned that in a speech in pennsylvania, the democratic president ial nominee will stay away from more ambitious proposals pushed by progressives. His plan covers several areas that include a push to buy american and incentivize american jobs, clean energy, childcare, eldercare, and racial equity. The u. S. Has set another record for coronavirus cases. According to the new york times, more than 55,000 were reported yesterday. The rate of positive tests in california has jumped to more than 7 . Governor gavin newsom warned that it could quickly spike into double digits. T because president mexicos president has sealed an Unlikely Partnership with President Trump. He called for more north american trade integration and hailed President Trump for his kindness and respect. Mr. Trump remains unpopular south of the border after calling mexicans criminals and racists during the 2016 campaign. It was a recordsetting first half of the year for hedge funds, and not in a good way. Hedge Fund Research lost 7. 9 on an assetweighted basis. None of the four major strategies made money. Event driven funds were the worst performance, losing almost 10 . Elon musk addicts that tesla may crack the autonomy puzzle this year. They said that the electric car maker is close to developing selfdriving vehicles. Tesla is in a race with alphabet, general motors, and others to develop the first 100 driverless car. Global news 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. Im ritika gupta. This is bloomberg. I think the world has seen the true colors of the Chinese Communist party, and i and convinced more than ever that the free people of the world will understand the threat that is presented. Jonathan secretary mike pompeo taking up a prominent position inside the administration as a china hawk. How will former Vice President joe biden position himself a little later in his speech in pennsylvania . Good morning to you all. Alongside tom keene, together with lisa abramowicz, im Jonathan Ferro. Live on Bloomberg Radio and tv. In your equity market, down just three or four points on the s p, off by a little more than 0. 1 . Politics front and center, the economy and the former Vice President. Tom it is going to be really interesting to see, and we are so advantaged to have somebody that really understands the tapestry that mr. Biden will try to set in scranton, pennsylvania. His parents did not work for done their mifflin, of course course,er mifflin, of the iconic Paper Company at the center of the office, but he knows scranton, pennsylvania because he lived it just so. Kevin cirilli, why has the Vice President selected scranton for this president ial speech . Kevin from a practical standpoint, it is socially distant and he is able to get there from philadelphia, where the campaign is headquartered. From an optical standpoint, this is a workingclass type of community that the president wants to win over. Remember, trump won pennsylvania, the first time a republican has ever done it since 1988, in 2016. Weve got to focus on the policy here. Jared bernstein, the longtime Economic Advisor to Vice President joe biden, for years now, has crafted a moderate, centrist approach to reopening the economy. It focuses on workforce development, infrastructure to some extent, and of course, racial inequality. He is trying to bridge the progressive and centrist wings, and he has been relying on some other folks. Based upon my reporting, former commerce secretary Penny Pritzker has also been secretary teddy pritzker has also been working with the former Vice President. Tom i have the clearest memory of that first tuesday in november for years ago, staring at the screen and staring at and suburbs in philadelphia knowing that something historic was happening. Can those suburbs pulled towards joe biden . Need toemocrats outperform in the suburbs around the country, not just outside philadelphia. Think you are seeing such a concentrated effort to win back the suburbs. We saw it in the midterms, and that is why they were able to make gains in the house of representatives. Now with the senate in play, we are really focusing on the suburb in towns like scranton all over this country. Jonathan free trade does not wean elections in 2020. The former Vice President has got to try to convince the american electorate he will be harder on trade situations with china. China, china, china. That is the president s way of talking about it, and it resonates with the public. How does the Vice President change that today . Kevin democrats are saying they want to win back allies in the global order, with europe joining the United States to pressure beijing into behaving more like a good actor. They are saying that it cant be just a go it alone approach. It has to be america with europe, with coalitions, from the world health to nato to every coalition we have seen. Republicans are pushing back on that. President trump says only he can be as tough on china. , thatms of the usmca deal is a message that republicans want to take to states like michigan and wisconsin because that is something President Trump campaigned on, that he would get rid of nafta. He is going to try at every twist and turn to link joe biden to nafta when he can. Aboutwe are finding more Vice President joe bidens platform, and it seems like it is not that radically different from President Trumps when it comes to Economic Policy and trade. Is he trying to paint himself as the status of come about without the drama . Is he trying to paint his campaign as a referendum on President Trump rather than getting people enthusiastic about him and his platform, per se . Kevin that is absolutely correct. When i talk with sources on the Biden Campaign, that is exactly what they are saying. There is a phrase in washington during the obama years, no drama obama. Biden is really trying to inherit that in many ways and suggest that he would provide the certainty, not just for the markets, but too Many Americans who have really overwhelmed by what has been going on. But look for those debates because i dont think trump is going to take that lightly. Jonathan he is not. Does the former Vice President convince the american public, the electorate, that he will be tough on china and trade when he was in the administration for eight years and they gave them a pass on all of those issues . Kevin and not just when he was Vice President , but also when he was on Senate Foreign relations. There is this whole record of his time in congress as well that will be openly debated. I think what today marks for the Biden Campaign is a set of policy proposals that are going to come out, and the Foreign Policy one will be incredibly interesting to report on and to discuss as well. But as of now, it all comes back to this coalitions. I think theyy, have been enjoying the luxury of having President Trump being out ande at the forefront waiting in the wings, so to speak. Looking for progressive reaction. What will progressives say on this front . Moving forward, can he continue to unite the party, but have progressives on his side in what is increasingly going to look like a moderate economic approach . Jonathan great to catch up with you. This is where it starts to get difficult for the former Vice President. The pandemic in america has been a mess. We can all agree on that. The president has looked a lonely figure. That has allowed the former Vice President to allow the referendum on this presidency to play out. When he steps in and steps up, that is when it starts to become a choice. If progressives pushback, that is fuel for the president to say this man is a trojan horse for the radical left, dont quote for him. Dont vote for him. Tom lets be clear, but bloomberg led this morning with a terrific summary of this important speech by Vice President biden. What you see there that is so important is his team of economic values are economic advisers are clearly centrist in nature. I dont see Economic Advisors to him of the liberal left that President Trump would critique. Jonathan and i dont think the president is going to allow the electorate to define joe biden as a moderate. That is where the tension will be, and detention starts to build seriously a little later. From new york city, good morning. Equities down 0. 1 . This is bloomberg. Jonathan from new york city, we are live on bloomberg tv and Bloomberg Radio. This is bloomberg surveillance. Alongside tom keene, together with lisa abramowicz, im Jonathan Ferro. Two hours away from the opening bell this thursday morning. Good morning to you all. We bounce back a single point on the s p 500. Really choppy price action through the week so far, but one dominant factor in all of it, big cap tech in america absolutely dominating. In the bond market, treasury yields shaping up as follows. Around 60 minutes from the claims data, we come in a single point on the 10 year to 0. 65 . I will get straight to the gold market. What a story on the last several months. 1809 ishe day, but where we trade now. That has been one of the stories of the market in the last several months. Tom i am glad you mentioned it. 1820 earlier. I would also note renminbi 7. 0200 this morning. Right now, get out the calendar. , and on the way to earnings season. It is total chaos, but we need perspective, and we get that from the bank of america and their equity strategist, jill. Erry hall Jill Carey Hall i love your recent Research Note. I want to go to the minutia, the wiggle room corporations have with capital expenditures. The way they do this is they reduce them in crisis. Is that what is happening now . Thanks for having me. Overall cash deployment has come down. We have seen about 20 of the s p 500 suspending buybacks. We have seen a little over 10 of the index suspending evidence. Capex has really been an area that corporations have cut back on. When we look at what happened last quarter, spending was essentially last quarter, capex spending was essentially flat. When we look at capex guidance that some companies will give unplanned spending, that is extremely weak. Very few Companies Giving and out to begin with as overall guidance, but the ones that are, it is pretty close to 2009 levels. There is that disconnect between the improvement we have seen in the ism. Tom what i note is mr. Buffett and Berkshire Hathaway take on dominion, and dominion is going to deploy the millions of mr. Buffett over to a more conservative tone on their Balance Sheet. Would you expect that to happen throughout all of corp. America . Jill when you look at the bank of America Global Fund managers survey, investors have really honed in on Company Balance sheet. Theres a lot of leverage out there, particularly down the market cap spectrum. Investors have been wanting companies to use excess cash to clean up their Balance Sheet over other cash uses. We have been in this lackluster capex environment, so there is sort of demand for that as well, where companies can invest in areas that it makes sense, and certainly that in a fishery for companies that beneficiary now, apanies, but right lot of companies are really being cautious on deploying big projects given the uncertain environment, so we are not boomng for a big capex this year, but if Economic Conditions continue to improve, we will be watching closely to see if that suggests a pickup. Jonathan we are seeing that this morning. Walgreens cutting over 4000 jobs, suspending share buybacks. Bed, bath beyond cutting stores as well. We see this every single day. Is this why you think we need to own the mecca cap stocks with the the mega cap stocks with the strongest Balance Sheets rather than something more fragile but anything surface . Jill we look for more versatile strong caps right now. Rop is stillbackd more concerning. Large cap earnings should fall about 40 yearoveryear. Smallcap earnings are going to be falling a lot greater. Analysts are looking for 100 yearoveryear decline in earnings for small caps. Recovery certainly benefits small caps, so if we see a more sustainable recovery and we stop seeing a pickup in cases, that could be positive, but obviously, theres a lot of fear right now about the rise of cases. Small caps have been generally underperforming since early june. Escalating trade tensions are another risk, and one of the key reasons smaller stocks underperformed in 2019. You also have really expensive valuations for small and midcaps, at record highs right now. A lot of the Economic Data on reopening suggests you are starting to see stalling or decelerating trends for Small Businesses. As he mentioned, Balance Sheets are a lot cleaner for larger stocks. You have a lot Higher Quality for the s p 500 relative to smallcap benchmarks. That is still something we are thinking about right now, but certainly if you are an investor in small caps, still opportunities that if we do see a bit of a tactical rotation into value, that is something we expect could work across the market. But being more selective within small caps makes sense, just given that a lot of the value stocks have become increasingly synonymous with leverage and risk. Lisa your comments make a lot of sense. Your caution makes a lot of sense with the Bigger Picture of the pandemic and the accelerating job losses in some sectors. At the same time, valuations have reflected this. There is a theory out there by jp morgan that really, the surprise could be to the upside if we get a stalling out of the pandemic betterthanexpected data, and you could see small caps rally and some of the mega tech stocks selloff, given where valuations are. Why is that flawed, in your opinion . Jill i think if we see a much more sustainable recovery, that is when, when we have looked at sizes of outperformance, you tend to see smallcap stocks, value stocks tend to rally during those early recovery stages. We obviously saw some early innings of that, and now that is called into question. One risk this time is that small caps were just a lot worse position to going into this crisis then they were going into a lot of the prior recessions. They had record leverage ratios theyve never had before. They benefited from qe and all of the access of cheap capital. They are a lot lower quality today. It is a crisis that hurt Small Businesses, so there are additional risks there, as well as around trade. Tom this is a huge deal. Mentioned walgreens with layoffs and on and on. The chancellor of the exchequer spoke about yesterday. Vice President Biden is going to speak about it today. What is the elasticity of those job cuts to the revenue line of small, mid and large cap . The answer is smallcap is going to get absolute crushed on this, right . Jill i think the labor market backdrop and the data we have been seeing, decelerating for Small Businesses is a big risk. For the market, we think theres a lot of risk. We have seen all of the stimulus moving out into year end. If volatility picks up around point,ction, at this even for the s p 500, the market is trading above our tournament hundred target year end. We are more neutral on equities at this point, and think it makes sense for investors to really pick those spots. Tom one final question, then. I am distraught this morning because i have my pasta maker on order ats or with public at table, and they announced they are going bankrupt. It is going to come in and amazon box. What does the capex reduction, what do job layoffs do to the top line fundamentals of apple, amazon, and the others . Are they immune from this dynamic . Amazon and some of those companies are the ones that have been the capex spenders during this crisis. Commodity oriented areas have cut back significantly. In terms of capex beneficiaries, you have certainly seen a slowdown off the board in terms of more cyclical spending in the commodity complex, overall spending on tech. But if we are in a more permanent work from home type of environment, certainly some of the mega Cap Tech Companies have benefited. We are equal weight tech overall. We think tech looks very positive fundamentally, but obviously that is one sector where there could potentially be regulatory risks that tech has largely escaped up to this point. One of the reasons we have been equal weight in addition to the very strong run. Jonathan brilliant catching up with you as always. Love hearing from you. My best to you and the team at bank of america. Carey hall there. Keene, ive tried that pasta a few times over the years. Lets talk about the cuts. The second wave of cuts is something a lot of people are worried about, and it is serious. It is a second stock for this economy. Tom jon, you were brilliant yesterday on the chancellor of the exchequer. All of them did a great job in their analysis. Kara weinberg was brilliant on this this weekend in the highfrequency economics. This is the tip of the iceberg. Forget about united airlines, walgreens. They are all going to be taking marginal cuts. The revenue line of consumer lines instantly. Jonathan we will talk about this. Alongside tom keene, together with lisa abramowicz, im Jonathan Ferro. On Bloomberg Radio and on bloomberg, this is bloomberg surveillance. The first word news, im ritika gupta. Ofmber of corunna vice Coronavirus Infections worldwide has gone over 12 million, and 1 4 of those has been in the u. S. Texas and california accounted for almost 40 yesterday. To Supreme Court is expected rule today on President Trumps tax records. The issue, whether congress and a Manhattan District Attorney can see tax returns and other financial documents the president has fought to keep private. The president has lost so far at every step, but the record hasnt been turned over, pending a final court ruling. Chinas to be let top diplomat blasted u. S. Foreign policy towards beijing, accusing the Trump Administration of being driven by mccarthy style paranoia. Suggested getting the two economies back on track and called for cooperation over the coronavirus. Parliament has given Boris Johnsons cabinet power to curb the disease. The Domestic Security Agency has been given the authority to resume Contact Tracing critics say he is undermining democracy. Walgreens posted worse than expected results for the third quarter. The drugstore chain will cut 4000 jobs and end share buybacks. In march, the pandemic prompt people to stop up to stock up on prescriptions and to live paper. Since then, prescriptions have fallen because of fewer visits to doctors offices and hospitals. Global news 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. Im ritika gupta. This is bloomberg. All develop the common nice developed economies are now seeing very loose fiscal policies, so who are you going to depreciate against . Jonathan blackrocks report harrison there. Who is going to try to devalue their currency, and what against . From new york city, good morning to you all. Alongside tom keene, together with lisa abramowicz, im Jonathan Ferro. In your equity market, up a single point on the s p 500. We advance not even 0. 1 . Treasury market as follows. Yields come in on the 10 year to zero. 0. 65 . G10 10 year to in g10, elder weaker. In g10, dollar weaker. We talked about this earlier. The first shock was the lockdown. The second stock is being below capacity for an extended time. Companies have got to react, and they are reacting in the last 24 hours. Tom no question about it. What we try to do with our great looking team here at great booking team here at bloomberg surveillance is give you the right guest at the right time. We do that now with claudia sahm. She studied at michigan, which in itself is a really twisted thing, and we are thrilled that dr. Sahm could join us today because she has outrageously frank about the state of labor and housing economy right now. Thank you so much for being with us. Joe biden is going to go out today and give a speech to drag the Democratic Party back to the center. In terms of Economic Policy, can he succeed in doing that . Claudia first of all, thank you for having me on the show. In terms of whether joe biden can succeed, i just want someone to succeed that is in washington, d. C. He is in a position to help set an agenda, but we need congress, members of congress and the Current Administration to act. They have got to send out more money this summer. How does a democratic voice , and clearly you are associated with that form of politics i understand you are, at bernstein, working with Vice President joe biden how does Economic Policy sell to disaffected republicans . How did they do that . How do they pull freemarket republicans over to a more government centric solution . Claudia democrats dont need to. The American People are all pulling towards policy. We have millions of families that are struggling. They have lost income. We have Small Businesses failing. We have state and local governments in absolute budget crisis. We do not have the Public Health issues under control. You dont need anybody in d. C. To tell you we have a problem. We need d. C. To really figure out how to act and do something. There is a longstanding adage that we are all keening we are all keynesians in a foxhole, and we are all deep in a foxhole. We side with the c. A. R. E. S. Act. They went big and they absolutely have to do it again, and more, i think. Lisa more money, and this is something a lot of people are saying. The question is, how do you direct that money . What of these policies . One thing you have advocated for is to send more checks to americans. Basically, additional helicopter many rounds. A lot of people say it is getting closer to modern monetary theory. Why is this the approach that you think is what is required here rather than a targeted approach to encourage employment . Claudia at this moment, we need both policy approach. We absolutely need to get money to those families and businesses and communities that are hardhit. We absolutely have to extend the enhanced jobless benefits, and we need to go big and broad to pump hundreds and billions and trillions of dollars into the economy. You have got to get it to everybody. That is the reason why i think the rebates, another round of recovery rebates would be highly effective. I have research already on the 2020 rebate. These things worked. Support, and big we do it in a recession. Manyis the moment where economists from left to right, and those who have been at the frontier of modern monetary theory, in a moment like this, we all hold hands because we are in a recession, and we have to get actively capacity, get people back to work. Lisa while holding hands, perhaps, no one is a deficit hawk anymore. There is a question, though,hen you start spending money when you are near borrowing costs, at some point it does drag on growth. That does seem to be what studies show. How big of a drag to set seem to be . Should we be concerned about how much we spend and the deficit we incur . Claudia absolutely not, not for the United States. We are in a privileged position. Studies show that high debt load low up are not based on the United States. Those have not panned out in our erience, but what he saw but what we saw in the great small,on is it was too and it lasts for lifetimes. Tom you are too modest. Claudia, youve got to stop with the bashful, modest stuff. Did the definitive research out of michigan on the efficacy of stimulus by paycheck. Clearly, President Trump wants this. Do we do by better by stimulus directly in paycheck, or is there a claudia sahm path . Claudia we need to send out money. We just need to get it into peoples bank accounts. The unfortunate reality is we have millions of americans not getting a paycheck, or their paycheck has been cut. We know from after the Great Recession the payroll tax cut was the least effective. Biggie tax credit was less effective than the 2008 tax rebate the income tax credit was less effective than the 2008 tax rebate. I am all for keeping business is going so there are jobs to come back to come up at the way to help workers and families is getting them money. , appreciateaudia your insight this morning. Really important perspective. Tom, important decision that needs to be made, and we saw some of them yesterday in the united kingdom. Just a flavor of how policy is going to evolve in the months to come. Tom what did you think . Jonathan i think he came up with some smart policies to incentivize rehiring. The criticism is it might not be enough. I dont think even the chancellor thinks his job is done. Even after this month, what washington does this month, once washington does whatever washington is going to do, most people believe they are going to have to come back as well. Tom theres got to be another round sooner. Jonathan setting you up this thursday morning for the price action. Not much of it overnight. Choppy overnight in the equities market. Futures unchanged. Good morning. This is bloomberg surveillance. The economy is not ready to be taken off of the balance keeper here. Otherwise, none of these companies will make it through the 2020 crisis. The covid crisis and survival economics has lined up golden functions going on. Right now, the biggest tension as the war between china and u. S. For global positioning. Lisa this is bloomberg tomeillance, with joh keene, lisa abramowicz, and Jonathan Ferro. Tom good morning. Tom keene, Jonathan Ferro and lisa abram