That. What is really important, moving from the United Kingdom to the United States, presumed to be august into september. I noticed the music use for bloomberg surveillance, you start talking, and the market flips from red to green. But the backdrop of this, and this goes to the stimulus impulse we are seeing right now, is gold doesnt go up. To 1814. S today up jonathan the reopening rotation has stalled. The steepness in the yield curve coming into june has faded. A little bit of nervousness starting to build in the last several weeks, the past month. Lisa we are seeing that in the mobility data, the soft data that people are increasingly looking at to gauge Economic Activity in the United States. This is leading to some skittishness around oil in particular. Coming up, i am very curious to see what we see in terms of crude Oil Inventories in the u. S. At 10 30. 1 00 p. M. , u. S. 10 year notes getting auctioned off, 29 billion. This follows a three year auction yesterday with a yield at a record low for the United States for borrowing at 3. 19 . This evening, President Trump will be hosting a dinner with mexican president lopez over lopez obrador. Ent very interesting, and this is very much on the forefront, the cooperation between nations on how to combat coronavirus, which is spreading in both countries and is not necessarily isolated to one territory. Jonathan and i understand mr. Trudeau will not be there, which is interesting considering we are talking about usmca. In this market right now, we do turn positive by three points on s p 500, up by one point up by 0. 1 . If you just look at the people waited s p 500 in the individual youtituencies, if just look at the equal weighted s p 500 in the individual weituencies start the conversation this morning with Tony Crescenzi of pimco. Talk about what is slowly starting to creep into this market or broadly. Anthony when one does look at the nasdaq, the does to be rays of hope in the market place. Going back to tell us about the state of markets, both to the idea of liquidity provide by the Central Banks. Radical uncertainty versus ordinary answer. Uncertainty. Inary the ordinary level of uncertainty, we still dont know what the future holds for this virus, but it doesnt feel as radical at the moment. Ago, when we spoke to the idea of liquidity, we know that story quite well. Finally, the confidence angle, this comes from us human beings. Itthe wealth of nations, was people going out there, trying to be happy and enjoy themselves and better their lives for their families. Markets,hat is driving and these are typical drivers of markets. The key is the uncertainty element and the degree to which it dissipates. One could say markets are in a given a Holding Pattern the surge of cases in the United States, but the lack of search elsewhere is what is probably keeping it from being work. From being worse. Jonathan do you see Business Confidence starting to fade as the reopening stalls in many states across america . But whensome extent, we look throughout history, and the terrible situation in 19 17, 1918, once the virus past, people went about their daily lives. Scenario forrse many nations. You see rebounds in the aftermath there as well. So many cases in history were human beings have gone about their business once the uncertainties and anxiety of related sources went away. One shouldnt expect this to change. It is somewhat hopeful if you think about the technologies, the nasdaq. There is this idea of 5g technology, and who knows . Maybe there will be product of it he growth maybe there will be productivity growth from companies that help us do things better. Tom i will take jons observation there about how the s p 500 doing versus glory stocks. One of the most important ones of the year for me was at davos with bob prince. He talked about a dampening of everything in the Financial System because we are at the zero bound. I am certainly observing a lethargy in the u. S. Bond market. Are we becoming japan like because of the changes we have seen in bills, notes and bonds . Tony Central Banks have crossed the rubicon as the bank of japan did many years ago. Monetary policy, to some extent, is the new fiscal policy. It is not a terry finance this go policy it is monetary finance fiscal policy. The government buys the bonds to gain that funding. It is the alchemy of monetary policy. I call it the keynesian endpoint. Nations such as greece learned on most 10 years ago that it could not borrow from markets in the way that japan, the u. S. , and the rest of europe is. It reaches the keynesian endpoint. Investors are saying again that it is ok to print money to buy the bonds that governments need to issue, that they will be able to stave off this endpoint for longer, but when will it hit the fan . Many could say perhaps it already has. That it prevents spending of the sort that would provide for growth in the long run. Currently there is a lot of money being distributed to , but the benefit to the economy will not be longlasting. Aad system, a new broadband system, a new tunnel to manhattan, things like that would provide longlasting benefits to the economy, and the indebtedness prevents that sort of investment. Lisa so the keynesian endpoint, another way of saying when does that matter. Your answer is it already has dampened productivity. Theyre has been a question about debt insecurities in the system and how violently things can reprice. We are not seeing that right now in bond yields. When do we start to see the next violent repricing at a time when the fed is really dampening that volatility in a major way . Tony its a really good point to bring up. Chaotic endings to credit cycles, it may become the norm because of the existence of large amounts of Debt Securities that the Financial System can handle. They must pass through from time to time, so selling will erupt again someday for some reason, and the system will have to try and it finds it difficult to do so, in part because regulators have told intermediaries, dont hold that many securities. We dont want you to. These investment banks have changed their business models. Think about Corporate Bond issuance this year in the united in my Investment Grade the United States, Investment Grade, 1. 2 trillion. Double last year. Who will buy those when they want to sell . So the idea that there will be chaotic endings to cycles in the future when they end, so investors should always leave dry powder for those periods to gain a flight in their portfolio to gain out for in there per polio. Jonathan thank you for joining us. That is Tony Crescenzi of pimco. We are having a discussion about judgments on the future. In about 30 minutes, the chancellor of the exchequer will talk about doing more. Lisa if you take a look at 30 year yields in the united , they have come in to where japans yields were, which raises the question on why not borrow more. Why not spend more . Investors are handing them free money, and i think that is the dilemma. To tonys point, yes, it matters with productivity, but what is the alternative at this point to spending . Jonathan and the man for duration is fairly resilient. We had a 30 year jgb auction in japan. It went fairly nicely, even when all of the fiscal authorities around the world are still pushing to do a whole lot more. Tom theres no question about it, that the Financial System is in operation. Gain, we see gold at 1800 i am fascinated i the difference between how they do fiscal stimulus in your country versus my country. Will hear from the chancellor in around 20 minutes, here on bloomberg tv and radio. Baritle later, ebrahim or a little later, ebrahim rahba ri from citi in a conversation you do not want to miss. Seeing ahe u. S. Is coronavirus surge in three states hit hard by the pandemic. Temporary testing sites are being set up that could help experts get a clearer picture of how the coronavirus is moving through the population. Officials are weighing how quickly to roll back the economy. In brazil, president Jair Bolsonaro is defending his handling of the virus despite the fact it has killed millions and has left him with the virus. E has called it a little flu the Trump Administration is considering another way to punish china for imposing that National Security law on hong kong. Bloomberg has learned some top advisors to President Trump want to undermine the hong kong peg to the u. S. Dollar. Some think the move would only hurt hong kongs think and the u. S. , and not china. Allstate is boosting its property and liability operations. They have agreed to by National General holdings for about 4 billion in cash. Premiumes out to a 69 over National General over National Generals close in the u. S. Yesterday. Global news 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. Gupta. Ika this is bloomberg. People are getting nervous again. Business leaders are getting worried, consumers are getting worried, and there is a real sense that this might go on longer than we had hoped. Jonathan Raphael Bostic there, sounding some cautious words yesterday alongside Federal Reserve colleagues. Good morning to you all. Alongside tom keene, together with lisa abramowicz, im jonathan ferro. In your equity market, we build on some of the gains of the last hour, advancing around 0. 1 . A mild move higher after a choppy session overnight, up around five points on the s p. Breaking lower in yesterdays session to around 0. 65 . Exchange, theeign u. S. Dollar is mixed. The euro advancing not even 0. 1 . Sterling going nowhere 12 minutes away from hearing from the chancellor. Tom i am quite taken by the resiliency we are seeing in dxy today, a 96, almost up to a 97. I dont want to oversell it, but we have a little bit of a safe haven tone out there, even with green on the screen in futures ever so slightly. Right now is an important conversation, and it is with max nisen of bloomberg opinion, who writes brilliantly on health care and the virus. What is so important to me is , theacophony of stories cacophony of news flows. Which is the one that matters on this pandemic . There are a few, and it depends on what issue you are following. I think that the thing to always look out for is the overall trajectory of the virus, and having good metrics for that. The most important thing to keep in mind is how long it takes for data to turn into trends. How much data can lag, and how easy it is to take any bit of information that confirms your priors or your hopes, and focus on that as opposed to taking a longer, broader view. I think the example that stands out for me is that people have been really focused on the sort of downturn in the trajectory of death rates in the United States, indicating that that is some reason for diminished worry going forward, when really, it very much is a lagging indicator, one that is already ticking up in hotspot states. It shows that this is really the same virus we have dealt with the whole time, just facing different conditions, and you have to kind of adjust for that whenever youre looking at the data. Lisa when we talk about the data, we are also talking about the renewed federal push for a boost in testing to gauge just how widespread the virus is. And yet the more testing that the United States does, the longer it has been taking to process these tests and get the results back. If anyone goes to their local md or whatever you have, it might take five or six days. By that time, it is almost useless. How big of a policy concern is this . Enormous, and it speaks to the lag in the data we are seeing. Anything you are seeing now, even on cases, which is one of the more trying pieces of data, even that leg subs even that lags substantially, and even more when there is an acute outbreak. People have to know so they can change their behavior. If they are waiting a week for a test, they may make the natural assumption unless they are heavily some thematic, well, i am ok. That is how you get really broad and concerning community transmission. Especially as we hope to return more broadly, that is when you really get a quicker turnaround on tests so people can actually get informed and responsible. Jonathan the approach around the world seems to be different still. It is july, and yet what we see in the United States is different what we see in australia, beijing. Why is the approach so different , even though everybody is talking about the same science . Max it comes down to the extent to which you listen to that science and the recommendations of Public Health experts. If different people were setting policy in the United States and they were listening to health experts, we would have policy that was closer to australia, china, and would have from the start. I think that is really what it comes down to because the science generally has been consensus. Tom this is really important, these statements you are making. I will try to keep the politics out of it as well. There is a sheriff out there, i cant remember the details, and in theno masks, last 24 hours, has turned around to masks. What would happen if the president showed up to an event with a mask on . How would that change the dialogue on the science, as you put it . Max i hope it would change it substantially because this is the thing on which there should probably be the least amount of disagreement, just wearing a mask when you are in a congregant setting, especially inside. It is such a small step, and one that data has grown to support more strongly over time as people have these sort of natural experiments in germany and in the United States, that have provided pretty convincing evidence that on a large scale, masking does work against the virus. It is in line with everyones priority, which is getting back to normal, having the most open economy you can through what will still be a significant wave until a vaccine. Jonathan we have to accept that authorities on every political spectrum, whether it is health authorities, politicians, everybody messed up the messaging on masking when they made the public feel guilty about buying masks because they protectave enough to health care workers, and now they are telling everyone to cover their face. How did we get it so wrong several months ago . Max that was one of the really big errors in Health Communication from the very start. I think the evidence was a little bit less concrete, and there was genuine concern about mask shortage. If you look at areas having more success in containing it, it did give her early indication to the fact that this was droplet based , and that masks would have been useful. That is how science works. People update based on evidence. That is what should inform policy, and what should inform behavior rather than fighting about what happened a few months ago. It is a mistake, but one that since has been rectified in communication, and we should use the evidence we have two hopefully convince people that this is something that needs to be part of daily life for some time to come. We all want to be able to get back to normal life. Jonathan max, appreciate your input. We all want that, for sure. Quite clearly, it is a messaging problem we are still trying to recover from, not just in america, but elsewhere, too. Tom of course, we see that with a serious infection in the president of brazil. Tony crescenzi was going on on the history, on adam smith and such. There is a whole history in this nation of antiintellectualism and antiscience that we are living right now. Jonathan that is not unique to america, tom. I can tell you that. That is shared worldwide over the last decade or so. From new york city, good morning to you while. Equity futures unchanged. This is bloomberg. Jonathan weve got a choppy session this wednesday morning. Good morning to you all. This is bloomberg surveillance. Live on bloomberg tv and radio, alongside tom keene, together with lisa abramowicz, im jonathan ferro. In your equity market, we stall out a little bit, unchanged on the s p. Positive just a single point. The csi 300 streaming together a seventh straight day of gains. Outside of equities, outside the bond market, look at the gold market. Briefly through 1800 on gold. 1801. Ow, right now, we are waiting for rishi sunak to address parliament. 1. 2542. Tom i am glad you mentioned that. Of citigroup has been with us many times, working with Catherine Mann and a great team on petroleum and hydrocarbons. Let me talk about a graver idea of stimulus and endless debt, even at a low Interest Rate. Currency just assume appreciation or potential devaluation . Ebrahim good to be on once again. That is a great question. My short answer is no, it does not. That is a point we have been making for our currency forecast, that in many cases, it is the ability to stabilize the economy through these very aggressive stimulus measures that will pull in capital and have support for asset prices. So i dont think it is true we should assume currency depreciation. That being said, i think the aggressive actions by the fed have certainly been one major that creates more confidence to invest in the dollar. So i think it has certainly contributed to the recent selloff. Tom the mathematics of this lift in gold off the march lows, when you look at gold, do you ascribe it simply to the common low real yields across the entire system . Is that what is driving gold higher . Ebrahim i think it is certainly a very important factor. If you look at the charts, you see that they correlation with real yields continues to be very strong, and even more recently in the last few weeks, the latest increase in gold prices has been coming alongside the previous decline in real yields as well. You have the price driver on the real Interest Rate side. There is a massive increase in central bank liquidity. , but alsoeal yields to some degree, some of the curved occurrence. Reasons people are looking to shun the dollar in this environment, it is belief that the u. S. Comes the source of instability as the reopening effort starts to stall. Weve had so many guests on this program in the last 48 hours talk up the shift away from the United States towards europe and elsewhere because of how badly the reopening process is going in america. For that reason, people are looking to fade the u. S. Dollar. Does that resonate with you . Ebrahim i would say a version of the argument resonates with me, but probably it is a little more flattering to the u. S. Tohink we should continue ascribe a fairly exceptional position to the u. S. Outlook. We think the u. S. Economy will bounce back earlier and more strongly than much of the rest of the world. What is true from an investment standpoint is that the rest of the world is unusually heavily exposed to the rest to the u. S. There are a couple of clouds on the u. S. Horizon, including a fairly uncertain election, but it makes a great deal of sense to diversify away from the u. S. We are seeing some diversification given these unusually high valuations and high exposures from the u. S. We also think that should give you some further upside for the , but iainst the dollar dont think it is equivalent to writing off the United States. In fact, we think the u. S. Growth exceptionalism probably left comingme legs out of the election. But for the next couple of months, it does put the u. S. On the back foot. Lisa the weakening of the u. S. Dollar has been something a lot of people are trying to understand in order to figure out how long it has to run. At bank of america global research, they came out and said that the fed stimulus, as you were talking about, compressing real rates was the main driver of the weakening in the dollar, which raises the question, how much curvier how much further can the fed depress real yield in the months to come . So what is the answer . Ebrahim as for real yields, i should say we were a little surprised how much further they have declined. In particular, the decline in real yields of late has been driven by a pickup in inflation expectations. In an environment where i think many of us expect inflation to pick up, the real driver in the decline of real yields is probably running out of steam, and that means may be the nominal Interest Rates have to do more of that work. Bulk ofo think that the the move has taken place. There might be another 10, 20 basis points in there, but we really dont expect a lot further in terms of real yield downsides. But it is also not the only driver. But i was alluding to in terms of drivers of the u. S. Dollar down, i think there is also a shift in terms of expectations of growth, perhaps some optimism for eu measures coming into play as well. So if the dollar sells off, increasingly has to come from some of these other elements rather than a further decline in real yields. Jonathan Ebrahim Rahbari hear from citigroup. In a moment, we will hear from the chancellor of the exchequer in the u. K. , rishi sunak. Well wait for the chancellor to unveil the next moves in the u. K. On the fiscal front. Tom i dont think there has ever been a moment since i have been doing this where there is such a stark difference on how governments operate. Dr. Nt you to explain with rahbari right now the massive fistfight over fiscal stimulus here versus how britain, with a majority government, just moves it forward. Explain that, and go to dr. Bari rahbari ongo to dr. That. Thethan i think that is major difference, to keep it really simple. With that in mind, we have to discuss how policy needs to evolve when you go from a situation of being shut down to reopening, you need to go from insulating did come any to insulating the economy to stimulating the economy. Ebrahim that is a critical question. Once again, i think probably an area or eventually, the u. S. Will have an advantage. That is because i think the ability of the economy to adapt is probably a lot more active then it can be across europe. We should keep in mind that over the last few years, the end result in the u. S. Has very majorbeen in agreement on easing. I wouldnt write off the expectation that that is what will happen in the u. S. For phase four as well. Obviously the election makes everything a little murkier, but certainly had expectation that we will see another 1 trillion or so in stimulus in the u. S. Tom we are thrilled you are with us at this moment for the strugglengdom, as they forward, as Carl Weinberg said earlier this week. Just a basic question for you, and maybe for dr. Mann as well. Can the United Kingdom forward the United Kingdom afford this blunt salvation of their market . Can they support stimulus forward to support the unemployed . Ebrahim i think the short answer is yes. When we talk about the ability of societies, economies, and government to support additional fiscal easing, the alternative of not doing enough is a lot more costly over time. I think that applies to the u. K. Despite the very large deficits. There is a question, however, about the ability to sustain growth in the u. K. That question, alongside the is morerade relation, astute than elsewhere. The u. K. Has to afford more persistent support for the labor market in the coming months, and in fact, there has been a question mark over how long some of the exceptional measures to support jobs, but also wages, will continue in the u. K. Lisa a lot of people have been talking about sterling. I know jon has mentioned this as the emerging market currency of thepe, given the fact that United Kingdom is unified behind fiscal stimulus, does want to commit to bringing jobs back. Will that give more stability to the currency, especially at a time when you see the entire world suffering with the same issues . Ebrahim we think in the shortterm, some of these factors are supportive for sterling, but against the backdrop where most investors really have been very bearish on sterling for a long time, us included, i should emphasize we still think the position the u. K. And habits in the Global Economy right now is a pretty fragile one, and the prospect of potentially negative Interest Rates over time, and probably more brexit attention, will probably weigh on sterling once again. There might be a bit of the window to get fiscal stimulus. You get probably not a whole lot momentum, and that may give you this window of sterling normalization. We think of it really is more of for the window, but time being, it looks like sterling may have found its bottom. Jonathan chancellor sue not chancellor sunak addressing the house of commons right now, saying we will do all we can to give everyone a job. You can follow that live on the bloomberg terminal. We will continue to give the headlines. The total plan is worth 160 billion sterling. These are huge numbers, and they are going to get bigger in the months to come. I think the worry that most people share is that some of the effort of the last several months has done a fantastic job of offsetting the income. We will see will we see that collective will, or will he transition away from that too quickly and open up an air pocket of consumer demand later this summer . Is that a fair you have not just for the u. K. , but perhaps in the u. S. As well . Ebrahim it is certainly a concern, and probably my secondary concern. My first concern is that some of these measures turn out to be insufficiently effective. So anyway, it is more in the direction of we are not doing enough not because we are doing less over time, but because even more stimulus would be required over time. That said, theres clearly room for policy mistakes. I think that is probably most evident in the u. S. , where we have expectation, but no certainty that more stimulus will come along. But in the u. K. , there are these question marks that you alluded to earlier on. Are we able to pivot towards something that actually leads us into self resigned growth as opposed to just making sure that no more jobs are lost in the short term . Jonathan Ebrahim Rahbari of citi, fantastic to catch up with you. What we are seeing in the u. K. Right now is just an example of what we will see play out in the United States in the months to fiscalnd worldwide, as authorities continue to underline their commitment to do more to help this economy. We will bring you more of the headlines from the chancellor of the exchequer in the u. K. As he addresses the house of commons on whats next. This is bloomberg. It is part of our fight to rebuild after coronavirus. Mr. Speaker, let me now turn to the detail. We are seeing demand for refined product come back in a very aggressive way, and that continues to increase as people get out and about and he can tie and the economies continue to open. Jonathan the Energy Secretary on the situation as we continue to reopen and normalize not just in the United States, but worldwide. Good morning to you all. Alongside tom keene, together with lisa abramowicz, im jonathan ferro. In your equity market, up around eight points on the s p 500, up about 0. 25 . Following some comments from the chancellor of the exchequer on is all. Next steps, it about policy as you go from shut down to reopen come you go from insulating the economy to stimulating the economy, and you have to try to incentivize the return to work. The administration very much in the center of that effort. This is what we are hearing from the u. K. At the moment. They are going to offer a 1000 pound bonus per employee for firms bringing staff back. A total Retention Bonus plan could be 9 billion sterling. Quite clearly, what we are trying to do is not just offset the shock to income, but also incentivize the return to work. This is important because it is not just a conversation for the u. K. It is what we are about to see play out in america over the next few weeks. Tom particularly if you take out hospitality and such, it will be interesting to see how you go from furlough to layoff, or from layoff to a job. It is just going to be an exceptional dynamic. But the key dynamic is the process in the United Kingdom where the majority government is extremely different from what Kevin Cirilli is going to report on in washington. Right now we want to look at oil. We want to look at hydrocarbons. One of the great truisms is you have to head your risk along the way. Rebecca babin is with cibc private wealth management. She has a really interesting career with goldman sachs, pimco, and now cibc of hedging out in hydrocarbons. Thank you for joining us. I am absolutely fascinated that with your experience, if you feel like the oil and gas business is so dead it is never going to come back, doom and gloom and all of that, that it is almost worth not hedging. . S that true rebecca i dont think that is true, and i will challenge at least the first premise. You still need to actively hedge your Commodity Exposure if you are investing in energy equities, and you still need to be very cautious about how you pick your securities because there continues to be a bifurcation in the sector of who is going to survive and whos not. Theres no doubt the group and the sector is in the middle of a transformation. It would be completely ignorant to not acknowledge that things are changing. However, that does not mean the sector does not still present significant and compelling opportunities, and always, you want to hedge where you can opportunistically across that. Lisa i want to get into some of those opportunities and the weeding out of the weaker players from the strong within the shale patch. We really want to paint the picture of where we are in the supply demand dynamic. You are seeing unprecedented decline in shale output in the United States. You are seeing those output cuts implement it across the middle east this month, and yet you also see sudden decline in demand, with gasoline demand lower than people expect it over. He key july 4 weekend rebecca i would say where we are in that balance, the first things you mentioned, which is the fact that demand came back off the lows more quickly than people feared, and we have had supply cuts and opecplus start to really comply with all of their restrictions. That is pretty much priced into the market. What is more uncertain is the second point you made in regards here is notgo from spectacular, especially with the peak of summer driving season. From United Airlines last night, they walked back some of the slight increases they had said they would put in place for august, saying they saw a lot of demand, particularly inchoate related states. Thirdly, california, texas, and florida are the top three gas consumption states in the United States, making up over 25 of gas consumption. As we see cases rising those states, we might start to see data that has been fueling the in wti and brent started to fade a little bit. Lisa so if this data is a harbinger of what is to come with respect to gasoline demand, how low could you see crude go at this point . What that mean in terms of bankruptcies in the shale patch . Rebecca i think the difference between now and may be the selloff we saw in april is the market is much more prepared for some of this data to slow down, and we have opec now all working and singing from the same song sheet, so i dont think you see the same type of volatility we saw in april. We could see something trend wti, and may0s in mid 30s and brent. However, that does have a Significant Impact on bankruptcies. I think you will see a larger percentage of Companies Start to file if we fall into that category across the shale patch. We need wti out on the longer part of the curve to be above 50 to save some of these Companies Currently in jeopardy. Appreciateebecca, your time this morning on an important conversation. Thisca babin of cibc on market. Shift, evolve as we try to reopen economies and get people back to work. The chancellor announcing, moment announcing a ago an incentive to bring employees back. As you look at the labor market, theres a particular demographic that is going to be hardhit in the months and maybe years to come, the younger demographic who will find it hard to get experience and get an entrylevel job. Something the u. K. Are looking at doing is a Kickstart Program to pay firms to hire young people. I do think this is a marker for fiscal authorities elsewhere to see how they follow up some of these ideas come to the surface as we move forward. Tom like so many things in this crisis, this is something that was there before the pandemic, and the pandemic has just massively accentuated it. I have been talking about this. Or years, about look at me nobody is ever going to retire. You will carry me out of here in the surveillance casket. It is tough for kids. Everyone watching those that. Jonathan a bit dark, but it would be an honor to carry on working with you threw twoyearold, old, old age through to your old, old, old age. Tom and what is great is it is tottenham blue, the color they got. Jonathan we will talk about this later. From new york city this morning, good morning. This is bloomberg. What we are seeing at the moment is the sugar high. It doesnt really tell us about the mediumterm trajectory for economies. We know there are large sways of the price data that are being made up, literally made up. Its got to be the real economy that performs. Otherwise, none of these companies will be able to make it through 222 anyone. 2021. Through to this is bloomberg surveillance with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. Tom good morning everyone. Will you are with us. A