I wanted to point to the mexican peso. Has not moved much today but we are keeping an eye on the earthquake that struck the country. Now lets get a status report on the credit markets. 13 u. S. Companies sought bankruptcy parks section protection last week. It comes even with the intervention of the fed which has injected liquidity across the markets and given borrowers. For more insight, lets bring in srikanth sankaran. The last time we spoke, we were already seeing a calming in the credit markets. Where do we go from here now that the fed has backstopped entire curve in the credit market . Srikanth our thesis over the next 12 months is we get a grind tighter with respect to spreads. Our call is for credit markets to deliver positive exit returns across investmentgrade and highyield markets. Effectively, you want to be more selective, but at the end of the day, this is an environment where you have to look at rerisking portfolios in times of weakness rather than missing out when the markets are already exuberant. We would be looking at it with a long bias. We think this is an environment where credit markets tend to outperform. Vonnie what do you do with the companys filing for bankruptcy protection, do you take those as examples of where we may see continued bankruptcies if the year goes on . Srikanth that will be an important dichotomy in the markets. Yes,ay we frame this, defaults are likely to go up significantly. Based on our forecast, talking about 9 in terms of 12month forward default rates. This would make it the second biggest spike in terms of default rates. There is once you have had a big shock like this, both in terms of what the market prices in and how the rating agencies have responded, a lot of these distressed credits are already priced to a high probability of a default. At the same time, a lot of these downgrades to trouble names have happened to a large extent. There will still be jobs to default. But this 10 default rate, assuming a 60 loss rate, does not translate into a 4 to 5 loss rate in our forecast. We are talking 2 . What we think happens is the majority of these defaults will happen from the markets which are pricing in distress. An eighth of the overall highyield market is still priced to distressed levels. If you apply a majority of these less to these names than . 40 on the dollar, . 70 to the for the other names incremental impact on losses, even when the defaults materialize, ends up being lower. The second thing is the higherquality credit has not lost market access, so that means a lot of the pain tends to be compartmentalized. Vonnie for those extreme cases, is there always a buyer . At what point are there no more buyers anymore . Srikanth there is an Investor Base transition we have to think about it transitions from the traditional high leverage loan buyers into the more distressed community. At the end of the day, the calculation they end of doing is looking at recovery values. That translates into some degree of an Investor Base. It is a price discussion rather than there is no Investor Base for these assets. Assets have tod go through some sort of a transition in terms of who the holders are. Associatedically with price action, and we are seeing that. The anchoring from the fed with respect to the investmentgrade market has positive implications for the higher leveraged portions of the curve. Vonnie how do you think about u. S. Versus europe . It would appear the fed is hitting the mark where the ecb may not be. Srikanth our preference is for u. S. Over europe in the current point in time. Coming into the last couple of years, the thinking was european corporate have been more conservative with respect to usage of the Balance Sheets. Right now, the way we would frame this is, the feds direct intervention it will not be the same magnitude as the ecb with Corporate Bond purchases but it is more than a backstop, a credible safety cap for u. S. Investment grade. Coming into the back cap of the year, the corporate mindset, even in the u. S. , will start to shift to a more credit friendly outlook, focusing more on Balance Sheet repair. That is leading us to be much more constructive with respect to the u. S. Markets compared to europe. Vonnie thank you so much, always great to have your thoughts. The head of Corporate Strategy for u. S. And europe at morgan stanley. The Bloomberg Global summit hisst invest some of happening right now. In june where the long climb, and you equated the richmond fed, thomas barkin, where the economy road the elevator down but will have to climb the stairs back up. Is that the way that you look at the recovery at the moment, that it will take longer and not be as rapid as some people hoped . That is correct. There are a lot of things that we know, a lot of things that we dont know. We expect real gdp to come back to 2019 levels by the end of 2021, so there is going to be a lot of repair to be done in the system. There are sectors where the degree of purdue debility is very high in terms of what may happen. Sectors, retail, oil and gas, leisure, gaming, where there are a lot of things we dont know. As much as i would like to tell you we can predict Consumer Behavior and how people will use anything from airlines to movie theaters, we just dont know. Next 12i think of the months, the error rate has to be much higher in terms of production. You said there were some areas where you felt fairly confident. What would be the areas where you think you can predict, think you know what will happen . Sectori think the tech tells you everything you need to know about what has been predictable. The situationk to we were on march 15, 16, if you would have told us the nasdaq was up 10 on the year, i would have been shocked. The recovery of the stock market has been nothing short of extraordinary. Tech companies seem to be doing extraordinarily well and for the most part unaffected by recent events. Do you think that valuations are justified . You sent surprising. That would sound like you dont think tech stocks should be quite that high again. An expert onrdly tech stocks but lets talk about credit defaults. You have seen an enormous amount of issuance in the credit the end of march 2 today to today. We had breached the liquidity cap. Then there will be a long cycle from where we will be to think about solvency and the businesses and what they can achieve. If we know anything from history, we know it is a long cycle, there is prepared to be done, and some sectors will be profoundly affected and will need restructuring. Just think of the airline sector. When are we going to see each other in the flesh . I dont know whether it is two weeks away or six months away. Part of it is also the virus, of course, where, your perspective of how much we have done in understanding the risk and keeping people safe, there are things that we dont know. As you see cases picking up in 26 states in america, there is a lot of unknown in terms of peoples behavior, what they are willing to do or not. You say the best risk return you at the moment have the fed by everything, supporting the market. Where do you see the best return given what you have said about credit, that you are worried about that . Manny i would point out one thing which is interesting. If you look at the u. S. Cycles, distress is a long cycle. To ability to deploy capital restructuring situations is actually the opportunity to deliver outsized returns. Tothis time, you dont have hurry, but it is something we are focusing on. If there are opportunities to buy cheap businesses and cheap credits because of all the factors that were mentioned, and the ability to put them into the correct structure with the correct liquidity, i think the industry will deliver outsized returns. , for theseen that First Time Since the s l crisis in 1991, then the asian crisis tech unwinding in 2001, 2002, and then obviously a lot in 2009. Thrive outpimco will of this market and find plenty of opportunities to invest money. Of the famouse winners from what happened in 2008, 2009. Is there one particular area that you think will work for you as it did for you then . Is there something you want to focus on this time . Bode very wellwe in credit. At the time, there were a lot of sleepless nights. Humbledto be incredibly in terms of where we go forward. But there will be plenty of opportunity to buy cheap assets. Also to avoid risky sectors and actually be defensive and making sure that we dont own things that break. Think about the Housing Market. Housing is in pretty good shape. If itole mortgage market, provides an opportunity, is pretty steady. Housing in the u. S. Does not have enough supply. Are reasonably stable, given what we know. Now the role of Central Banks. It is being called the age of magical money, and what it points out is, after the last financial crisis, Central Banks printed a vast amount of money. This time we are close to 10 trillion and we had really been through a year as opposed to a decade. How does that impact your thinking . Surely, at some time, people have to unwrap that. It is impacting us a lot, we have seen with the ecb has done, how it has neutralized the risk of virus in the country. If we had this conversation 15 years ago, we would have tried , and we would not have come close to where they are today. Can i come back to italy . Debthave vast amounts of against gdp, 130 . It has problems in the financial tradingand yet, it is admitted guilt spreads miniscule spreads. Sense in aakes mutual station system where the ecb is essentially buying a lot of bonds and driving the price down. It is no surprise. Ecb as ahink of the way to transfer credit risk away from the best credits, germany and the netherlands, to weaker credit, and having the ability to borrow and by assets buy assets to a level which is driven by a lot of purchase. Think thee, we italian Banking Sector is in good shape. There are things in italy which are working the right way, there is an industrial sector that will need to recover from post situation, but a lot of Good Companies in italy, and should be a good exporter. There are things working in italy also, so i dont want to give you a bleak picture of what i think the italian picture is. Hopefully, there will be more surprise in terms of competitiveness and being able to grow the business. In america, to what extent do you feel you are betting against the fed . The fed is sitting there underwriting so much. Does it make it difficult or someone who is an active fund manager you are not just buying an index. We me say dont bet say dont bet against the fed. But that has not bought much. They have signaled a total commitment to step in, if need be. You have to give them credit because the world looks like a a very different place beginning march 17. They acted swiftly, and we needed it. Maybe the total crisis of liquidity we saw in the first two weeks of march was due to the fact that people were home, but i also think it was due to an anonymous and of stress in the system and some think that no one had been confronted with, except for our colleagues working in asia through the flu. Flu swine to their credit, they acted swiftly. They buy in the end, you could argue, it is more important than the actual amounts theybuy. Underestimateo the amount of restructuring that we will need in the streets, in terms of setting up the business, leverage ratios, figuring out how much they can buy back, headcounts, figuring out sourcing. You will know that better than me. The next six months, there will be a lot of noise about china. So outsourcing will also be a big issue. We may see some inflation down the line. A lot of valuable stuff coming into the picture. When do you see inflation coming back . Is it coming back because so much money has been implied, asset prices are so high . Manny at some point in time, you see some inflation. Of course, it is linked to the economy, but it is coming that slowly to the 2. 4 level over the next couple of years. The days of the inflation that we grew up with argon. I do not want to sound anything but measured in terms of what we say about inflation but it is something we will have to look at. We dont think the fed will raise rates for a very long time. What is the trigger . Look forers would you on inflation, what kind of early indicators would you look for . Manny i think a continuing number of data points where you would see inflation coming back itsthe fed has learned lesson from hiking too fast in 2005, 2018. The fed will not be keen to create a temper tantrum. We think they will be measured in what they do. They will need to see real signs of inflation before they do anything. We talked about the fed, Central Banks, but the government has also been pumping money into the system. Are we livings, in an age where governments will just borrow more money, will there have to be a kind of reckoning . For the foreseeable future, you will see governments with the Balance Sheets. One of the examples we can think about is the japanese example, where you have a very high leverage ratio at the government level, the government owns 50 of the gdp in circulation, and rates are equal to zero. If you look at the japanese example, it is not the example that you want. It is certainly not the outcome that you want to see happen. Finding other solutions than monetary practice. You say this is a time when reform will come to government in the west . Manny you hope so. You Hope Congress can think about the issues. Structuralng about reform, tax code, mobility, these things really matter. It is true for the u. S. And europe. Europe,etitiveness of the fact that in a global market, will need to have European Companies being competitive, which is not a given. I think that will be addressed reform, not by anything else. I think there is a view to say, monetary theory is great, but it is only a part of the equation. There are other Structural Reforms in the two have been that, in a global market, one needs to do. Vonnie that was the pimco ceo manny roman. Here on bloomberg tv, as lockdowns ease, only a trickle workersstreet returning. The cautious approach to bringing them back. This is bloomberg. Vonnie new york may have entered the second phase of its gradual reopening this week, but in the major office district, many are not coming back. For the future of wall street, lets bring in andrew mellon. You want to run several financial districts in the city yesterday. Were people back at work . Andrew they are few and far between, but yes, we have started to see people come back to work. There was a little bit more traffic coming into grand central. Yesterday, i was told by staff. A few of the banks have started to bring traders back or started to make plans to bring people back. We are not quite back to where things were in early march but slowly we are getting there. Talking about tens of thousands of workers. Many have suggested it will take a long time. Several companies saying some workers may not ever have to come back to work. Are any of those Financial Companies . Ers there are a few Financial Companies that have put it out there. Ubs said a significant share of staff may end up working from home permanently. These are things that Financial Firms and other companies are now,ng now, weighing after seeing that it works pretty well to have people working remotely. It comes down to which weighs Financial Companies can help compensating their employees to do this over the longterm. Vonnie this of course means other businesses that depend on wall street are also waiting on these workers to come back. Anders absolutely. Shoeurants in manhattan, cobblers, hairdressers certainly waiting for everyone to come back. Vonnie it is a great story and i urge everyone to read it. Phase two begins monday. Plenty of anecdotes from wall street to midtown and other areas. Anders melin, thank you. Coming up, we will be hearing from kewsong lee of the Carlyle Group, coceo. We will also keep our eyes on these markets continuing to make records. The nasdaq up 1. 5 . This is bloomberg. You doing okay . Yeah. This moving thing never gets any easier. Well, xfinity makes moving super easy. I can transfer my internet and tv service in about a minute. Wow, that is easy. Almost as easy as having those guys help you move. We are those guys. Thats you . The truck adds 10 pounds. In the arms. Okay. Transfer your Service Online in a few easy steps. Now thats simple, easy, awesome. Transfer your service in minutes, making moving with xfinity a breeze. Visit xfinity. Com moving today. Mark im Mark Crumpton with bloomberg first word news. A massive 7. 7 magnitude earthquake hit go this morning, sending residents of the capital being into the streets and triggering a tsunami morning for the coast of central america. Wasusgs says the earthquake centered in oaxaca state. There are no reports of damages or in injuries but communications have not yet been reestablished. Dr. Anthony fauci, americas top Infectious Disease expert, testified before a House Committee today about a timeline for a covid19 vaccine. I believe it will be when, and not if, we get favorable candidates with good results, we will be able to make them available to the American Public , as i said to this committee months ago, within a year from when we started, which would put us at the end of this calendar year and the beginning of 2021. Mark todays hearing took place as the u. S. Recorded 2. 3 million coronavirus cases and more than 120,000 deaths with rates of infection increasing across states in the south and west that were among the first to reopen. In florida, the coronavirus pandemic is showing no signs of slowing down. 103,000e has more than confirmed cases and more than 3200 deaths. Cases rose 3. 3 in the past 24 hours. Florida has had nearly 24,000 new cases in the past evan days, the highest level since pandemic began. The second president ial debate between President Trump joe biden will be held in miami. The events original host, university of michigan at ann arbor, pulled out because of concerns of the coronavirus pandemic. It will be a town hall style debate on october 15. The candidates will also face september 29 at the university of notre dame in south bend, indiana, and on october 22 at Belmont University in nashville, tennessee. Global news 24 hours a day, onair, and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. Im Mark Crumpton. This is bloomberg. Im amanda lang in toronto. Welcome to Bloomberg Markets. We are joined by our bloomberg and bnn bloomberg audiences. Here are the top stories we are following from around the world. The bloomberg and best global summit. We will hear from the Carlyle Group cofounder, kewsong lee, on the state of the private equity markets amid the pandemic. Lets take a look at markets, amanda. We have a positive session after a little bit of back and forth in the futures markets, commentary over whether that deal with china is intact. Sentiment,a positive hope for a new stimulus package coming. We are seeing some enthusiasm. Techs leading the way across the market, Consumer Discretionary right behind. Amazon, home depot both moving higher. Energy also getting a boost, that is helping in toronto. Of course, we are keeping our eyes on we heard from the Apple Developers conference yesterday but watching for commentary about where we go on the Housing Market among other things. The big number that many are watching today is the pmi. Have we seen the bottom in manufacturing . That is one of the questions we are answering as it hinges back to the 50 level. A lot of talk from central echoing comments we have heard from the u. S. Federal reserve about whether or not the worst is over, and we can move beyond that. I want to go to the bloomberg invest global summit. Alix steel is in conversation with kewsong lee. It looks like a majority of respondents expect [indiscernible] 40 wshape recovery. Do you agree with that . If that is the case, what does that mean for someone who has to put billions of dollars into the market . Kewsong there is so much that we dont know yet. There is a chart else back because i think the worst is over in terms of april being the low point. But a sharp bounce back does not mean a vshape recovery. When we are seeing in china for instance, and that is the best example of something close to a vshaped recovery. Given consumers skittishness, factors involved regarding change behavior, we are seeing the economy come back to a 90 level organically. In the u. S. , i think it will be more challenging. Andrestart is going in fits starts, a lot of the still dont know. Ofmendous issues in terms how we contact trace, mitigate of the virus in the future, liability issues that have to be worked out, and the possibility of a jobless recovery. I really dont know but i certainly dont think it will be vshaped. The bottom looks like it will be vshaped, but i think we will struggle moving on. I dont think we get to precovid levels for a couple of years, given the nature of the recovery that will be difficult. Does that mean that in china if you are back to 90 , youd expect that to go down a little bit before we get a recovery, or are are they are they on the last part of the w . The thing to appreciate in china, if i was to ask you, how much money was spent by the government to get that recovery going it is virtually nothing. They managed their recovery on a very organic basis. If you look at europe and the united states, tremendous amount tofiscal stimulus required be injected into the economy. So they have a lot of ammunition to go. You also have to understand, china is the the export portion of their economy has remarkably shrunk over the past 10 years. Something like 40 down to 20 . Given that, china has a lot more going for it then you think, and there may be a chance it does not hit a recession this year. Unfortunately, the united states, we will have more fits and starts. I do think the resiliency of our economy is such that we will power through this but it will not be a classic vshaped. I would be more in the check mark shape with some squiggly lines. The second part is not as dramatic and jagged. So does that mean from an investment perspective, he would rather be investing, a better chance to put money in china, than distrust in the u. S. , distressed in the u. S. , europe . The question is not are you investing or not. We are always investing. It is being selective and understanding where you want to put your money to work. There is a difference between investing aggressively and investing wisely. We are in a longterm business, we have balanced respect to. That is what our investors pay us for. We have been very selective about being aggressive in the credit asset class, particularly in the opportunistic strategies. We Like Health Care and stack, particularly in parts of the far east. , not asbeen deploying aggressively as some may say, but pretty darn active. But investing is not only putting money to work. Its also trying to understand how to exit appropriately. ,e have been pretty successful even during these times with pandemic, with respect to ipos. Zoom. Ample, also, m a in japan and other parts of the world. We are always selling, always buying, but its about being selective and targeted, investing wisely with a longterm perspective, which is what were trying to pursue. John manny and the touched on this, but talking about the decoupling of china, it could be with the eu, the u. S. How does someone like you look at that conversation . I will bring this into my answer, but if i were to ask you are the audience to close your eyes and go back to precovid i know it seems so far away. Alix i cannot do it. Kewsong i long for that. If you go back to the fall of last year, and you were speaking to manny or me or others, the trends we would be talking about would be low global growth, low rates, disinflation, no inflation, abundant energy, the impact of the destruction of technology, polarization, nationalization, populism. Also trade tensions and decoupling. Now if you open up your eyes and you are in the crisis moment, none of those trends have changed. It is still low global growth, low yields for probably a lot longer than we imagined. Disinflation. Abundant energy. Foxou are watching cnn or before the crisis, you are still watching cnn or fox in the middle of this crisis. That goes to the whole decoupling and the tensions between the u. S. And china. I think this is clearly an issue for all of us with respect to a major paradigm, the globalist framework is at risk and is changing. I do think this is something which is not going to be for the better. We are all better off if the two largest economies in the world, these two large ecosystems can figure out how to constructively engage to the Mutual Benefit of both, and the world. But clearly, there are issues right now with respect to that relationship that our leaders need to resolve, moving forward. In terms of investments in the u. S. , to capitalize off of that, where are the opportunities . Warehousing, inventory, manufacturing, where are the opportunities . Sectors, itterms of is simple to say health care and technology. If you are looking for growth longerterm, you cannot help but think there were opportunities in the far east. But i like to talk about the five cs. Cyber,commerce, cashless, collaboration. Those are all trends that are picking up. Irrespective of what industry you are in, if you can pick up on any of those trends, you are you have an interesting business model. What we have noticed during this haves is that many trends accelerated. Ability to be disruptive has actually increased. A lot of the opportunities we are looking at now tend to be more growth oriented. The traditional late stage, very large private equity buyout deal , is something that will be more , as we try to find our sea legs with respect to future earnings, as it relates to our assumptions as to where all of this is going. In thewth investments sectors i have identified, the themes i talked about, are all very interesting and compelling. Alix this is a question from an audience member, and i was trying to get there. Private equity was very tough for most firms. As there been a suggestion for underwriting new deals . Who has more control . How have contracts changed, etc. . Mark to market faster than sellers. Transacting in terms of the traditional private equity deals will just get harder, which is why you see volumes fall. With respect to investment return requirements, it all really depends. Stable, safe company, resilient company, we might be willing to pay even more for those companies that may otherwise would have because it has been proven they can get to a crisis like this, navigate through and continue to grow. Those are very valuable companies. What im seeing happen is almost a bifurcation between the haves and havenots. It may well be that Certain Companies and Business Models command higher multiples, where we are willing to pay higher prices, except lower rates of returns, versus the havenots. Bea world where rates could zero for a long period of time, the real interesting question for investors to answer is going risk, what is the right premium, what are the right return expectations for marys different Asset Classes . If you think rates are going to be zero for a long period of time, you cannot help but think there will be compression over the longterm with respect to returns. As it relates to carlisle and what were looking to do, it is all about the ceos finding the right companies in the rights of others. Well feel we can do that and partner with them over the longterm to build their businesses, the returns will work out just fine. Alix another audience question talking about china. As we walk forward to a u. S. Trade or nontrade deal, do we go the route of decoupling is a trade deal does not work out, particularly as we get closer to the election does that create more or less opportunity for you, here or china . Kewsong given our footprint in the matter what, there will be opportunity for carlisle as it relates to change, the environment, as disruption occurs. Investors are able to find opportunities when that happens. I reallyg a step back, hope that does not happen. I hope it is really important for both sides to make these one work. It is almost symbolic at this point that both countries have the will to enable phase one to happen. I do think the rhetoric needs to come down from both sides. This was just touched on in the last interview. There is this notion that we need to 100 on shore. I think the argument needs to be the narrative needs to be more about resilient supply chains. Resilient supply chains do incorporate an amount of on shoring, but for American Companies to be truly competitive in this global marketplace, we need Global Supply chains. If you talk to a lot of ceos, that is exactly what they appreciate and understand. There are a lot of complications as it relates to the u. S. China trade deal, potential impact of decoupling, but stepping back, i want to say, i think its one, thatthat phase part of the agreement gets fulfilled, and that we carefully think through the right narratives as it relates to the resilience of supply chains and forward moving forward. Alix so, yes, but please dont let it get to that. [laughter] you talk to any private equity person, any major investor, six months ago, precovid, all of the talk was about esg, focused on a lot of the environmental investing. Becomelike now the s has almost more important coming out of this. Im interested in what carlyle is doing and thinking in terms of investing in bsg but also esg, but also ranking the companies that youre interested in . Issong as far as carlyle concerned, theyre all important. Its about having maximum impact. The whole notion of impact is it is not a product. We think about trying to have impact in every single company, every investment we make by simply having a philosophy that our job is to make businesses better, across the board, from revenue to costa capital efficiency but also in terms of diversity at their boards, what they are doing with respect to climate change, sustainability practices. For instance, we have one company where we have put in place a capital structure, Bank Financing structure, whereby if that Company Improves its ability to be more sustainable with respect to some of its manufacturing processes, the cost of financing actually comes down. So the banks have motivated us, motivated this company, to continually improve on its sustainability practices. If that happens, the cost of its debt falls. There are lots of ways that we are trying to push our way of inking into investing processes, but it is an integrated mindset, it is not a product. It is a mindset of appreciating that our job is to have positive impact. Our job is to drive a total value creation. The only way to do that is to adopt a mentality of, lets make is this is better. It is all aspects of esg that are required to do that. Rudimentary sense, if you were already investing in a company that has no minorities on their board, would you know go to them and say you have to get some on your board in three months or i am drawn my investment, even though they had good cash flow and was a Solid Company . An important is topic, something that we have been working on for many years. A handful of years ago, we implement it a policy that in all the companies we control, we wanted at least two directors with diverse backgrounds on their board. E made tremendous progress in the u. S. , close to 90 of our controlled companies now have at least two directors with diverse backgrounds. We are now in the process of upping that even higher. This is not something that we just started. We have already been doing this, but we have more work to do to continue to drive improvement in this area. Let me just address why this is so important for us. , diversity of background, diversity of experiences is exceptionally important in a business like ours because we are in the judgment business. We are in the decisionmaking business. World, youcomplex want as many different viewpoints, perspectives, and you want the benefit of those divers experiences and insights helping you make those judgments. In our experience, having diverse boards, leadership really enables us to make better decisions. If we can do that, the superior judgment result in better investment results, which obviously is to the benefit of our clients. This is an important topic for us because it is a statistic or theme of the day, it is at the very core of what we do, which is to make great Investment Decisions on behalf of our clients. Alix how active would you be in the . Vonnie alix steel with the carlyle coceo kewsong lee. Go. Can follow that on live lets bring in sonali basak to get some reaction from what we heard. The comments from the private equity person really interesting to kewsong lee, optimistic about private equity, but it looked pretty dicey in march. Yesterday, Steve Schwarzman told our jason kelly that there of a big v in terms recovery, and now kewsong lee says there is a bounceback. Why does this matter for the industry . You are seeing bankruptcies in america sort to a record, surpassing 2009 levels. If private equity cannot keep their Portfolio Companies under control and investment in you to to make sure they can weather the storm, then how do they invest more aggressively in the future . I thought his comments were well made, the list of concerns that you may have had before the pandemic, things like low interest rates, the potential for deflation, polarization, trade issues, they are all still with us. In some ways exacerbated slice slightly, but the same issues. Does it feel for private equity, that the issues they are dealing are what they were dealing with at the end of 2019 . Sonali another thing that he said that was important was it could take a couple of years to get back to 2019 levels. They are factoring in another era of uncertainty. So what does that look like . Carlyle and their competitors flock to what they think is certain in this environment, which is assets like cloud, ecommerce, cashless and cyber are all things that the coceo said. But a lot of their rivals are also floating to these assets. Vonnie in his fascinating. He talked about liking health care and technology. We have seen many bankruptcies. Obviously they are looking to combine the two, health care and technology. Had beenarlyle invested in one medical which i believe have gone public. Focused an Online Health care provider. As we know in the Healthcare Industry right now, not all things are created equal. You have that big in vision problem for kkr as well because a lot of Health Care Advisors were forced to close up during this pandemic. To ask theant esg,ion that vonnie asked, how they need a diversity of thought. How does private equity stock up on the front . Sonali it is still very much a club, but carlyle has the most women in their senior ranks. It is significant to hear kewsong lee talk about it. Also he is one of the few asian executives in a private equity firm as well. We do want to see a bigger commitment from the industry at large in terms of their operating companies, and the companies they own, since they are owning an increasing swath of america and internationally, really. This is something that we will want to watch. They arepressure putting on their Pension Funds to seek change, because their voices matter, too. Amanda great to have you with us, sonali basak. You can continue to watch the Global Investor summit on live go. Vonnie today, we had a couple announcements of actual mandated changes. Blackrock saying 30 of their employees across the company by 2024 will be black employees. That is really important for companies to set a standard on that. It should be theoretically easier to put some on the board. We are up 1 on the major indices. The nasdaq weeding the way, 1. 6 , mainly thanks to apples riproaring session today. This is bloomberg. It is to acquire p. M. In new york, this is Bloomberg Markets the close. Im caroline hyde. Romaine im romaine bostick. Taylor im taylor riggs. Confusion that sunday futures slumping by saying it is over for the u. S. China trade deal and forcing President Trump to step in on twitter. The view from the trump administration, we get reaction to that trade confusion and much more from u. S. Treasury secretary steven mnuchin. He joins bloomberg invest this hour. Betting on the check. U. S. Stocks nejra a two week high at an alltime record. That as investors zero in on a report that President Trump is pushing for a second round of stimulus for americans. All of that and more coming up. Romaine the nasdaq at an alltime record. It opened at an alltime record. The big question is whether or not investors will want to build off of these highs and push it higher and cash in their chips now. Chips that are up 48 th