Talking a lot about throughout the rest of the hour is what is happening with wirecard. Was lower yesterday and today down another 20 . We will get the details in a moment. We also have a wellknown face in the united kingdom, david the ceo, we will talk to him about what is happening with the refugee policy in the United States and around the world. We will see a significant report on the crushing defeat delivered to the British Labour party at the last election. We will get davids take on the prospects for his party and where it goes next. Certainly, it has been something that we have been spending a lot of time over the last couple of days talking about and that is wirecard. Alix one of the biggest stories of the morning. The latest headline, a lawsuit against wirecard and the former ceo, marcus brown. Lets dig deeper into the issues surrounding wirecard with scarlet fu. Can you talk us through where this started . Either missing or does not exist. That is the big question. It does look like investors are giving the German Company the benefit of the doubt because the stock has cratered over the past two days going below 2000 euros. Billioniped out 10 worth of market value. What happened and why is it coming to a head now . There is the 2. 1 billion unaccounted for. Overnight, two banks from the philippines that were holding the money said that they do not have it. And that wirecard is not a client. Wirecard faces a crash crunch. You mentioned this morning the ceo marcus brown resigned. Wirecard has been hailed as a European Company with steady revenue growth. Less than one billion in 2015. The replacement has a lot of work to do to make sure that clients and customers continue to stay with them. Marcus brown has much of his own personal wealth in wirecard. He is a billionaire on paper because of it. A 7 stake in the company. Apparently his shares were pledged as loan collateral. Jupiter investment and citigroup and deutsche bank. Bloomberg news is reporting that wirecard lenders may hire outside consultants as they prepare for what could be the possibility of a default. Guy . And guy thank you very much. This carryon our conversation with an analysis of where this story is going next. We were joined by Neil Campling yesterday, the of mirabaud ofurities the cohead mirabaud securities. He has been one of the most skeptical analysts on what has been happening at wirecard. Thank you for joining us again to give us an update on what is happening. I want to come to marcus brown in a moment. But lets talk about the news you brought us yesterday which caught you by surprise and that was the issue surrounding the loans and the deadlines that exist today. Do you have any more clarity on what is happening with that deadline . I do not know when it is and what impact it could have. Neil i think all that we do deadline is the today to produce the final Financial Report for the fiscal year 2019. It is pretty clear now that that is now impossible for wirecard to produce. As you pointed out at the top of the show, a lot of banks that had exposure through the various instruments out there whereby they would be likely to enter a situation of negotiation and discussion. But what we cannot get away from is the fact that we could be looking at a situation where the core business of wirecard is not what it first appears. That if missing 2 billion is just the tip of the iceberg. Hours, we have had the suspension of the former coo. We have had the resignation of the founder and ceo. Is ave found that there missing 1. 9 billion euros from the Balance Sheet. We have found that there is documentation related to two asian banks. This morning we found out that both of these asian banks say record ofhave no wirecard as a client and that there are no deposits. Even if we look at the Philippine Central Bank who have also confirmed receipt of report on the wirecard issue in an entitled report on crimes and issues, this is not seen today, it was back on june 9. We need to be aware that every time we are looking at the headlines coming out, we have to keep going back and thinking this is in many respects not news. We have had so many red flags for a long time. As you say at the close of Business Today we are 24 minutes away, 30 minutes away from the European Equity market close. Would you expect a statement at that point . If it closes today, wooded reopen on monday you think . Iil just at the caveat that do not know the individual requirements for the german exchanges. Having seen examples in the u. K. , i would have thought it would be most prudent to request a suspension whilst they are effectively trying to find out exactly what is going on. It might actually be a reason why you have seen a rally to a degree this afternoon in both the stock equity and the bond as well. There has been money made on the borrowed side and gains from the situation, you would probably looking at your own risk profile, you are thinking that perhaps there will be a suspicion that will take place over some course of time. Suspension. I would be surprised if there is no request for a suspension. And whether we get a statement this evening or perhaps into the weekend, perhaps we will get a statement from the regulator. We also need to remember that there is a Wirecard Bank as well and they hold deposits for clients. , there is alsoe a duty in many respects to protect the deposits in the Wirecard Bank side of the business. Not least before we get onto wondering about what happens with the core business and the customers and the licenses and Everything Else that are at risk for the company. Point and ia good highlighted before the segment is that there is a lawsuit against wirecard and i cannot imagine that it is going to be the only one that we are going to see. What happens . How does this play out in terms of the government getting involved in all of this . In the u. S. , the government would have to get someone involved. What kind of risk is there here . Neil the total money that we are talking within wirecard, we assume it is 1. 9 billion euros, it is no longer exist it does no longer exist. The total wirecard rebound sheet clearly has some cash as far as we can tell, but not more than a few hundred million euros. There is obviously counterparty risk for a lot of different angst involved in the various debt instruments different banks involved. Financial industry in germany, it is small. There was also Reputational Risk as far as how the industry is concerned which is one thing to be aware of. Back and look at a range of fund holders and debtholders and equity holders. We also must remember that the stock has been one that was not devoid of controversy for a number of years. There have been in number over the course of time that have maintained that there are issues over the business and many of bese have been found to against the company and Everything Else. This is not going to go away overnight. Interim ceo has been on the job for five hours. Alix exactly. What really can he do at that point. Definitely going to watch that into the close as well. This is bloomberg. Guy i am guy and alix steel is in new york. There was an eu leader summit to discuss the rescue rescue program for the union. The question is was any progress made. Lets find out what the details were. We are joined by maria from brussels. What happened . We know that the summit was going to be a nonevent. There was no expectation for any major break through and we did not get any. But it is interesting that Angela Merkel is leading the negotiations because germany is leading and presiding the rotating presidency of the european council. This is a negotiation she is leading and she wants to get it done. That was the message to the rest of the 27 countries. She had a very pessimistic tone in the call with the rest of the european leaders saying that there is perhaps we still do not know how big this is going to be and we need to be aware of it. She also said the reason need to get this deal done quickly and by quickly she means before the end of the summer is because she is predicting a lot of turbulence toward the end of the year. There is the u. S. Election, potentially a brexit negotiation and negotiations to be done with china. The message from Angela Merkel was clear. Lets get it done now and get it done in a way that we can take one issue and focus on the rest. Alix thank you for that. We early appreciate it. Looking at the eurodollar, no movement yet that we will discuss this more with poul director. Department we will break that down even more. This is bloomberg. Guy lets go to breaking news. It looks like a bloomberg story. It looks like america is looking billion thatnd 2 could come out next week. I think it is being worked on by citi which is going to run the book. It looks like a fiveyear secured bond, it cannot be repaid for the duration of that five years and kicks out an 11 yield which is pretty chunky. If you believe that america is going to survive, you can take your view on this, obviously that is a very high yield. The sector looks Airline Sector looks stressed. Stocks, abouto 1. 1 . Alix definitely trying to hang on for survival. To the recoveries taking place today, Angela Merkel had warned eu leaders that if they failed to reach an agreement on a stimulus package, a consequence would be dire. We want to break this down more m. Thomsen. What would be considered a victory today in these conversations . Poul i think it is important that leaders recognize the need a forceful response at the european level. The details are under discussion but i think there is going to need to be forceful response. I think going into the summit that was what was hopedfor to get it. I agree it would be important to get a final deal before the summer break. Angela merkel having some fairly harsh words for colleagues, warning that if there is no agreement before the summer that the european economy will face dire consequences. Would you agree with that assessment of the situation and how dire . Do agree that the proposed Recovery Fund is an important additional element of what has so far been a very forceful european policy response. We have had a significant response at the national level. Also with the earlier response at the european level through the support from the commission of labor markets, this additional very large fund would complement the very strong measure we have seen so far and we should add the ecb going outside of the fiscal. This is indeed critically important. We are still facing a significant downturn. You will see oscillating downward, it is too early to see by how much. But this european economy is taking a very severe hit and i would agree that we need to continue with very forceful policy stimulus. Enough . It is this package and the individual packets of germany, italy, and france going to be enough . Poul i think that is a very strong response to how we see the situation right now. The uncertainty is huge. There is some significant Downside Risk and we are aware of them. Risk of hit and the some spillovers that we have not seen so far thankfully come into the Financial Sector. If these things happen, more will be needed. Austria has said that if there is to be money distributed, that money needs to be tied to reform, not just consumption. Lets think about that for a moment. The american response has been very much to maintain consumption. It is a critical part of what is happening in terms of recovery in the United States. Is it a mistake at this point for the chancellor and others to suggest that there should be Strings Attached to this money or should the money simply be dished out to try to keep consumption going, try and keep the velocity and the economy, though it has been sadly lacking . That we have to recognize the area is not a Political Union in the sense you have it in the u. S. One would need to compromise between several Member States. It is about the transfer of some Member States to others. Compromise needs to be reached. I am not going to go into one or the other side of that, but the situation is different in europe compared to the u. S. Politically. That is one of the things you are seeing now. That, but theate u. S. Is focused on consumption. The u. S. Is focused on simply sending checks out to try and keep people spending money. You saw that in the retail sales data that came out last week. Europe has a different way of doing things. The systems in germany and elsewhere have kind of kept people attached to their employer. Im wondering how you think money should be spent, whether it is possible at this stage to see which is more effective. Poul i think you also need to recognize the fundamental differences between the u. S. And europe in the economics structure. Stabilizers in europe are much stronger. It is built into the way that the economy is structured. A more forceful restructuring support of income through the automatic stabilizers in europe. Understand how investors need to look at this timeline. You were mentioning before the summer break, if we do not get something concrete before the summer break, is that it . Is it like a risk off if something does not happen the way that we need it to . Poul given what we are seeing, it is very desirable to get it before the summer break. I agree that the negative effects are only gradually feeding to the economy. There are some risks looking ahead. The earlier this is in place, the better. I would certainly support the urgency of getting it done before the summer break. Guy as you say, significant risks do exist. Yet the ecb is kicking out huge amounts of money and did so yesterday that will reinforce the link between the Banking System in europe and the sovereign bond markets. We have seen that end badly in the past. Im wondering whether you are concerned that if europe does not manage to generate a significant economic recovery does that doom loan between the Financial Sector and the market end up becoming a problem again . Poul first i want to stress that the Financial Sector in thane is much stronger during the Global Financial crisis. There has been significant strength in the Balance Sheet so far of the Financial Sector in europe. On your question of this doom loop, this is one of the reasons why we stress that there needs to be a comprehensive response and on Monetary Policy fiscal policy. I think it is interesting that we have actually seen more recently that the sovereign spreads which went up for the countries with high debt have started to come down. I am confident that the announcement of the intention to have this Recovery Fund is part of it. Guy poul thomsen, thank you very much. This is bloomberg. Guy it has been switching over lets talk about how the session has developed. It is a little more positive than the history books would suggest on a witching day in june. Looks like we will finish in positive territory, not by much, but up on the day. Weekly, obviously a different story. It has been a very bouncy week. S p 500 up by. 6 . 365 is where we are trading up. 6 . Is withs look at where we are the main indexes around europe on the week to give you an idea of the distance traveled. Ftse 100, and cac are all up around 3 and the dax are up around 3 . We certainly started the week on then the fed and kicked in and things really changed. Lets talk a bit about what has happened today. Today has been witching on both sides the atlantic, an Expense Ratio for a whole range of options that tends to cause fairly significant volume spikes. You have certainly seen that today. As you can see. If you look along the histograms, you can see those very elevated points relative to where you would normally expect to be. That is where the volume has come through. A much bigger than expected spike expected on the close as well. You can see the lumpiness of the volume as we have seen some of those expectoration skating in. In terms of single stock land, what has been going on with wirecard. I am watching to see what happens in terms of statements after the close. Over the last five days, wirecard is down nearly 73 . Absolute battering. And we still dont know exactly what will happen. There may be a short covering. People with the shorts may be covering them as they are word about what could happen after the close and into the weekend. That is the distress story. Lets look at the Mergers Acquisitions story. Cuomo, new york will enter phase two on monday. We will talk about that later on. Lets talk about the deal flow, what it looks like. We have seen an incredible equity rally. How is that feeding through into the dealmaking arena . And with the credit story as well . Is it igniting animal spirits or are people still word about covid . Coming up joining us now is philip drury. Were also joined by sonali basak who joins us from new york. Thanks for joining us. It. Eally appreciate equity markets have been on a tear. Credit has been on a tear. What is the Risk Appetite when it comes to Mergers Acquisitions . Philip first of all, thanks for having me today on the show. Veryally has been meaningful across equity markets and credit markets, there is no doubt. But there is still a very uncertain outlook, and it is the m aook which has caused volumes to reduce very, very meaningfully at this moment in time. Having said that, the Capital Markets have really kicked in. The last 15 weeks, we have been on a real journey with our clients, starting off with the bank led liquidity as the market started to slow down. It then fixed itself through liquidity and the bond market really picked up both in the emea. Nd also across we have seen record volumes across Capital Markets. Then the equity recap really started. U. S. Equity volumes have been recordbreaking. Muchhas been very u. K. Focused in the beginning of this recap wave particularly in small and midcap. I think Continental Europe will see more equity activity in the summer and postsummer. But Mergers Acquisitions is where activity has led. Well you would expect animal spirits with equity markets and credit markets having rallied as much as they have, it is the outlook and lack of certainty and the threat of a second wave that has not allowed the m a witht to really kick in battle said, alex and a couple of weeks ago spoke to your colleague sonali with that said, alix and i a couple of weeks ago spoke to your colleague. When will we start seeing distressed m a as some of the of cash starts to slow down . Philip there is no doubt that when the markets are open and given the uncertain outlook and tightening of credit, you would andcipate corporates sovereigns and supernatural would come to the market as they have. We have seen a more accelerated than capital needs. As it relates to m a activity, there is a financing market. Ot covidrelated liberty tieups in the u. K. Where good stories, good value creations and good synergies can be created. Deals can certainly get done. We anticipate a pickup in activity in m a as we get into the second half of this year, but really, it will be 2021 when we start to see distressed to asset sales or we start to see growth combinations in the sectors that have really been working through covid, health care and also technology. Sonali a great outlook for the end of the year. I want to talk about something happening right now as well, dying. There is a lot of tension in the market with buyers looking to get out of certain assets. Citigroup, tiffany and lvmh what is your outlook trying to gete out of the deals that have been impacted by the covid pandemic . Philip i think that, again, you point to the overall outlook. There is a lot of speculation around deals, not all of it well grounded in the facts. Whenever you have an uncertain period of time and have deals that have been consummated and are yet to close, you do get speculation that is not all factually correct. But having said that, there is no doubt that deals have either stalled or have not been consummated because of the uncertain outlook. We are tracking a similar level in terms of deals not consummating as we did coming out of the Global Financial crisis. What is going to fix that . Greater sentiment in terms of corporate outlook, and in terms of earnings profitability to back the rise in the equity markets, and to underpin these very high multiples we are trading at right now. A lack ofis fundamental earnings outlook. Alix so, if you tie it all together, let us bring in a few other things that are not covidrelated. One is the tension between the au and china over Mergers Acquisitions takeovers. The other is the u. S. And au over the digital tax. You also have brexit. And protectionist rhetoric everywhere you look. What does that do for the psychology of someone in the csuite who wants to expand their business . Talk, there is a lot of crossborder activity has been very slow year to date. There has also been a lot of chatter about chinese intentions. Given the attention we have seen escalate on the heels of covid between the u. S. And china, there is more discussion here in europe about whether we will have more inbound from china. I think that is logical. At the same time, you are right in pointing out the more nationalistic intent around Critical Industries within europe and the actions that some in the e. U. Have put into place around protecting those Critical Industries. I think that can be expected especially in the more distressed sectors one those sectors are receiving state aid. It is natural that you are seeing protectionist activity to prevent crossborder, particularly in those companies which are receiving state aid. Alix fillets, great to catch up with you. Philip drury, thank you for helping us bring that interview. Hair mexico is weighing a u. S. Bankruptcy filing, after the collapse in travel air mexico. They negotiated some payment deferrals with less hours in april. Now there is potentially a chapter 11. We will bring you any updates. We want to bring you an update on what is making headlines outside the business world. Here is ritika gupta. President trump is not giving up on ending daca, the program that shields 670,000 young, undocumented immigrants from deportation. The president said the administration will be submitting enhanced dust to the Supreme Court shortly. The court ruled that the admin station violated federal law when it ended the program. The Trump Administration to court today to try to stop publication of former National Security advisor john boltons logbook. It is set tellall book. The book is set to be released next week. The administration argues that the book contains classified information. Bolton says the government is speech. O stifle free it looks like the trade deal between the u. S. And china is back on track. China plans to speed up purchases in farm goods under phase one of the agreement. The Shopping List includes everything from soybeans to corn and ethanol. Chinas purchases fell the highest due to disruption from the coronavirus outbreak. The u. K. Is showing signs of emerging from the outbreak. The government lowered its covid19 alert level by one rank. Officials say the virus is no longer spreading exponentially, after almost three months of lockdown. This amounts to some real excision of social distancing measures, something that had already been happening with the opening of nonessential shops this week. Global news, 24 hours a day, on air and quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. I am ritika gupta. This is bloomberg. Guy . Guy thank you very much. We will get more details on the u. K. Story in a moment. This is how european stocks have closed. A positive session. We had witching today, there has been heightened volume and. Spikes of voting throughout the day a positive session and a positive week. The ftse up 1 . Cac up up. 4 and the. 4 . We have seen a downgrading of u. K. Ovid risk today in the you will have their briefing at the top of the hour coming from 10 downing street. We will bring that to you on the cable at the top of the hour, dab Digital Radio around the area and around the world on the bloomberg terminal devices. This is bloomberg. Guy welcome back. Close watching the here on bloomberg markets. Guy johnson london and alix steel in new york. Lets talk about what is happening in terms of the refugee crisis around the world and the effects covid is having. Clearly, the pandemic has highlighted vast inequalities across the globe. Governments, the private sector, cranking up plans to try to deal with the issue. Joining us now is the ceo of the International Rescue committee to give us his take on what is happening. The former u. K. Foreign secretary, david miliband. Thank you very much indeed for taking the time today. Lets talk about the effect covid19 is having on the work you are doing. We had a problem before. How much worse is a problem now . David thanks very much. The International Rescue committee is a global humanitarian charity that helps refugees or the internally displaced fleeing from war. Numbers ofecord people fleeing from persecution, violence and conflict. A Record Number of refugees announced by the u and million. , over 29 a Record Number of Asylum Seekers and a Record Number of internally displaced, 42, 40 3 million. That means that for the First Time Since records began in 1945, more than 1 of the worlds population is fleeing from conflict or violence. Not economic migrants, but people fleeing from conflict. This represents a real crisis of diplomacy. That. Adds to these are some of the most vulnerable populations in the world. Spreadee the disease from the richer parts of north america, europe, now into latin america where the disease can run rife, and massive concerns in south asia pakistan, bangladesh, afghanistan, significant concerns in africa nigeria, africas largest countries these are with weak Underlying Health conditions and weak health infrastructure. Only 100 ventilators in congo, a country the size of western europe. The alert we are sounding is boththe world is suffering from the crisis in diplomacy that it still Record Numbers of refugees, and the pandemic that threatens to keep misery on people. Of alix in the developed world, we have seen Central Banks cut rates to zero or below. A ton of stimulus come in in forms of payroll protection here in the u. S. , or direct Employment Benefits like in the u. K. Or europe. We have seen emergingmarket Central Banks like brazil cut rates to record low. We are still seeing stimulus come out of emerging markets. What other levers can be pulled here, realistic levers that can be pulled . David you are right to say that there is a macro part of this. People like the Prime Minister of ethiopia have been talking about the need for renewed or extra debt relief or other macro measures which are matters for the world bank and the imf. We published a report today showing that just taking the next six months, there is 1. 6 billion needed in developing countries to prevent hunger turning into starvation for some of the most Vulnerable People in the world. A cash transfer. In refugee hosting states, 760 million. We have used u. S. Figures and shown that schemes let universalbased income have a counterpart in the developing world as well. There is a second part of the equation, which is that we need greater investment in Preventative Health care. We have to get the handwashing stations, the soap, the testing, if possible, covid testing and Isolation Centers that can stop the disease running rampant and overwhelming alreadyweak health systems. The third part is social consequences. To give you an example, the level of violence against women and girls is skyrocketing. I was on a zoom call with our team in south sudan. Workers. 900 local volunteers added to the local staff we have. The levels of violence against women are growing fast. This is a time when the world needs to be stepping up to address the weakest links in the chain, and at the moment im a governments are so preoccupied dealing with their own problems that they are not thinking beyond their borders. It is not just shortsighted, it is myopic. Guy is there a lack of leadership from the u. S. . David yes. Of course. Guy lack of leadership from the incumbents of the white house . I would like to hear your reaction to the earliest excerpts we have seen from mr. Boltons work as well there is definitely a lack of leadership, not just from the u. S. But from the more powerful aspects of the global community. The groups leading industrialized countries could not even agree on a statement on whether to censure the world health organization. 80 of the World Economy are frankly. , in the u. S. Has decided that this is a time to declare war on the world health organization. That will not do anything to stop the pandemic. G0 world, areal leaderless world. The greatest danger to the most vulnerable to the world. We all suffer from this. In the end, this is the disease of a connected world. It needs to be address all over the world if there is to be a building of a new normality. The threats on the International Aspect of this crisis needs to be fundamental. China last week held a summit with 12 African Leaders and made announcements about vaccines. But we need International Action now to prevent the disease not just infecting people, but a couple ofle questions on the u. K. Guy is it a mistake to merge the foreignnto office . You were formerly at the foreign office, this is the department for International Development difid. Is that a mistake . Second question is, what do you think of the report published today about the liberal party and the mountain it has to climb if it has to win the next election . David on the evolution for the dfid out of the foreign office, when it is not broken, dont fix it. The department of International Development is a leader in global aid not just policy, but implementation. It is an effective lever and also a very good source of soft power for the u. K. It is a mystifying decision even if we were not in the pandemic. In the middle of pandemic, the danger is that the bureaucratic reshuffle gets in the way of delivery at the frontline. On the second question on the labour story, i havent read the report your referring to. But it sounds like it recognizes the scale of the problem. The labour party has lost four elections. Eight through our the last election with a set of promises that were not believed in rendered the party and electable. Unrendered the party electable. If the report is the First Step Towards realism about what labour needs to do, then that is a good thing. Guy david miliband, we will leave it there. Thank you very much thank you. Has of the International Rescue committee. This is bloomberg. Save hundreds on your wireless bill without even leaving your house. Just keep your phone and switch to xfinity mobile. You can get it by ordering a free sim card online. Once you activate, youll only have to pay for the data you need starting at just 15 a month. There are no term contracts, no activation fees, and no credit check on the first two lines. Get a 50 prepaid card when you switch. Its the most reliable wireless network. And it could save you hundreds. Xfinity mobile. Guy Pay Attention to the banks over the next few days. We are about to get a speech in the u. S. Which could potentially frontrun, give us an idea of where the fed sits on dividends, alix. What are you paying attention to if you are an investor in u. S. Tax . Alix yes, the reports talked about how banks give out more than their cash flow because they had to put so much money aside for potential bad loans because of covid. What do you do with that Going Forward . All right, that wraps it up for guy and me here in the u. S. And in london on this friday. Friday. Coming up after this is balance of power on Bloomberg Television and radio. David will speak with congressman al green of texas about police reform. This is bloomberg. Is is bloomberg. David from bloomberg World Headquarters in new york, to our tv and radio audiences worldwide. I am david westin. Welcome to balance of power, where the world of politics meets the road of business. Joining me is scarlet fu. Up a smidge but not dramatically. Scarlet we did open higher at the open. But we have slowly been pairing from those advances. Unless things fall apart, it looks like we will end the week with gains overall. The s p 500 with the fourth gain this week, the nasdaq with five Straight Days of advances. That good news prompted investors to bid up at the open. You have the e. U. Beginning stimulus talks. In the conversation between the u. S. China relationship not falling apart. What you are looking at here is volume. Average volume at time for the s p 500. It is picking up today after a fairly light week