Assets. It markets off about 1 . We will do that in the data check in moment. Life goes on. It francine, i think it has been under discussed, the challenges in the United Kingdom and lockdown. How locked down is the United Kingdom . Francine these are challenges to what we have seen around the world with countries, governments empower grappling with how soon do you ease the lockdown. Yesterday, there was a bit of excitement, certainly in the capital, because of the reopen toward the end of the month. There is no plan on schools. There are three grades, peoples that have gone back from june the first. We thought we would hear from the government of the u. K. A gradual plan on the rest of the year. If you are eight or nine years old, you would go back here, and it would be gradual. The government said they would not they did not want to a lot of guidance. They would leave it up to the schools to find out what is best. Tom absolutely confusing. The United Kingdom really looking out to september and the analysis of when the kids go back to school. Right now, we will analyze the news with our first word news in new york city. Here is ritika gupta. William barr has publicly contradicted President Trump. That the Fox News Secret Service told the president to go to a bunker in the white house during a large protest. President trump denied that saying he merely went to inspect the bunker. Senate democrats proposed a Sweeping Police Reform bill before presenting the legislation bill. Before presenting the legislation, a meal for george floyd. His death has arced several weeks of protests. As 25,000 stores in the u. S. Could close permanently this year. Thats almost three times as many as last year when closures set a record. A retail and tech firm says most of the closures are expected to ur the coronavirus demonstrated an industry where retailers were already struggling. Boris johnson will set out his plans for easing the National Lockdown after officials were did the lowest number of daily coronavirus deaths since restrictions were imposed. Last month, johnson said nonessential retailers could open june the 15th of the threat of the virus continued to recede. Global news, 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake on bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. Im ritika gupta. This is bloomberg. Francine, tom . Tom look at equities, bonds, currencies, commodities. It is a currently it is a pullback. Im not going to call it a risk off. , call it a 1 move, 30 spx. Three. Ures negative another day, a little pullback. Pullback in european stocks, and we saw that at the beginning, a lot of questions about why the rally and how it could be sustained. If you look at treasuries, they are advancing with golden yen, europeanook at the credit risk in midmay, something i dont watch often, so it is something i really interest me. At 107. 87. Yen tom it is a tuesday with the news flow to readjust, recalibrate, and look forward. On the politics of america, there is no one better to do that with then our Kevin Cirilli, bringing him out of the surveillance bunker where he has been for the last two to four weeks. Want you to recalibrate how democrats feel of the memo terry memory of secretary clinton simply losing. The delicacy here is Vice President biden needing to address progressives and gets moving to the middle, for example, saying im not going to defund his. How does the Vice President migrate to the middle in the coming months . Kevin there was palpable anger formerout math of secretary clintons luster now President Donald Trump amongst the progressive wing of the Democratic Party. There is anger this morning at the former Vice President , saying he is not in favor of defunding the police. When i talked to progressive activists, they have always been skeptical about the team the former Vice President is assembling himself with. , theer, in contrast democratic strategists who are more centrist or establishment are breathing a sigh of relief. Clinton lost wisconsin, michigan, pennsylvania, ohio. The police vote is so important. Police unions are so incredibly in order to get elected there. Reputas to, one, together the obama coalition, including high turnout of africanamericans, but also believe. Tom kevin, in the old days long ago and far away, back in your areiest days or before you thought of, you ran to your wing and came back to the middle. That is standard american politics. Are you telling me that does not work anymore . Kevin rip up the script because this will be a turnout election, tom. On both sides, whether it is president or former Vice President biden. They are saying they have to boost their turnout. Whats interesting about bidens decision, he went the route saying he not only wants to bolster africanamerican turnout but he cannot defund police. When i talked to republicans yesterday, they were saying bring this on. They like this challenge because they think trump will say he is much more in favor of police than bidens. Thats biden would be biden is. That ify, we will say you are a moderate republican, elected in a suburb, for example , the few remaining left our suburban republicans, they are looking across the aisle right now to try to come together to pass some type of bipartisan reform in the wake of the george floyd killing. Francine kevin, the election will be decided on a couple of states. What do the polls in the states telus and does it all depend on the running mate for joe biden . Kevin in terms of the polls, biden has the significant, and a slight advantage in some battleground states. That is at the president ial level. For a global audience, in terms of seeing how the house and senate will vote, we talked so much about how covid19 has hindered biden and trumps ability to get on the campaign trail. It also hindered senatorial and gubernatorial candidates from being able to get out on the campaign trail. Precovid, people were talking about Mitch Mcconnell going to lose in a kentucky race. That is now a pipe dream for ,emocrats because mcconnell because democrats havent been able on the local level to crisscross the state. A lot of talk on whether or not the senate would go back to democrats. Its unclear because of the impact on a local level, campaigns because of the virus. Francine Kevin Cirilli there, chief washington correspondent. This is bloomberg. Tom bloomberg surveillance. Good morning everyone from london and new york. Youre looking at the markets, lots of good get coming up. Daniel juergen is scheduled i believe in the 10 00 hour. I dont know when i know that will be a must watch for global wall street. Right now, he has been known for and his Goldman Sachs data for doing acute numerical research. He is jens nordvig. Right now, we have to congratulate him on industryleading research on out frontearly data with terrific research on the spread of this horrific virus. Nordvig can give us an update. We have 14 states in america, small or rural states, less dense states, having a bad bout of the virus and in case growth, and they are doing it in open economies. I would suggest, much like what sweden did. What have you learned in your study of sweden, and what does it mean for you, what does it mean for alaska . Jens we are getting a ton of questions on sweden, because it is an early example of a country that tried a different model. A couple points. The first point i would make, the policies matter. Sweden took a different policy path, and the virus took a different path as well. They have had more cases than the neighboring countries, norway and finland. A different strategy makes a difference. That has been the first point. We can see that very clearly. On the other hand, i think the most important indicator to look at is what is the pressure on the hospital . Look at the data they have, they have high quality uata from i see you use ic use. At the end of april, it has come down to roughly half of what it was at the peaks even though they peak. Even though they have had a different strategy and have been open all the time, schools being open, at least for young kids, and people going to work much more than we have seen in the countries and states that have had locked down, they have not been overwhelmed at the hospital level. I think that is the key indicator. Then, there are politics, tom. Is this something that is supported by the population . So far, the government is popular. Theres no pressure in the government changing tune from the population. A support this track taken. What is the age distribution characteristics . If you were to fly out say to Salt Lake City today and advise the utah government, how does age fit into the success or failure of the swedish model . Jens we have seen all around the world the fatalities unfortunately, among the elderly, and even sweden, you can see the reason why, when you compare countries across the world, we have had more fatalities. Its a lot to do with the act that Nursing Homes in that country have always been hit. When you compare it to norway, for example, they have had fatalities in their Nursing Homes creating a huge difference. If you look at the broader population, the fatalities are low. That is the reason why the government of sweden is willing to continue with this strategy. They feel ok. They made changes around the nursing home, but broader population, the hospital can take it. In the last couple weeks, they closed the emergency hospitals they set up that they dont need. Up because they dont need them. When you think about what this will mean for the state and u. S. Opening early states in u. S. Opening early, we can see cases growing rapidly and a number of places. Arizona is one of them. We note part of that is testing but not all testing because the ratio has also gone up. Aboute a big debate whether the hospital pressure will become a real issue. Hospital pressure is going up in some state. The key question is, how big is that pressure going to be . How much extra capacity could be added. We learned from new york that a lot of extra capacity can be added and are you really going to have republicans and governors in the states in second round lockdown. Markets, the markets are telling you no chance, if you look at the rally we had over the last two month. That is the big question, is that assessment . Francine what is the perfect way maybe not the perfect way but the best way of reopening the economy . Is it right for people to go back to work before opening schools . The u. K. Is a different approach. If you look at every country, it is so different but they almost have the same affection rates infection rates. What should open first and last . Jens the key thing is that everybody should be careful during the reopening. Its not like night and day where we were worried about the coronavirus and we go back to normal now. There are things you can do where you normalize the Business Environment but you are careful in the process. There should be no handchecking or hugging. People should be wearing masks. If you open offices and factories, there should be social distancing in the office. Of hugeen many examples outbreaks in crowded workplaces. That is something that should be avoided, even if you go down the route of reopening. There are all of these things that are special details that early matter a lot. One thing we can see in the data, we track a lot of these mobility indicators. And just because the mobility of people is coming back to normal, that doesnt mean the transmission of the virus going back to normal viruses going back to normal. There are all of these details about how humans behave that are different. I mean the Statistical Analysis is highly nonlinear. I think thats very important right now. Tom Leslie Vinjamuri jens nordvig, we cant say enough about your research on this pandemic. In the 7 00 hour, we will look at the markets and thrilled that robert will join us from nuveen. Really need to get out front on when to sell and get out. Im sort of thinking, when should i dollar cost average into the market . One of these days, i will also into the market. This is bloomberg. Tom bloomberg surveillance. Francine lacqua and tom keene. Jens nordvig with us. It is always about the dollar. The bull market in the dollar and dollar strength, is it over . Jens we definitely have a for the dollar. As we can see today, the ups and downs are very much linked to what is going on in the equity market. We have a tight correlation on what is going on on risk assets and what is going on with the dollar. That is nothing new but has been pronounced this year. The explanation is really that the most important driving variable for the dollar is pretty much what is going on with Global Growth sentiment. Global growth sentiment was historically bad during march and part of april. Over the last couple weeks, we have recovered, so people are starting to pencil in reopening globally and that has global expectations growing and the dollar has taken a meaningful hit on the back of that. That is the big picture dimension. We have to do the analysis on top. There have been important flow variables in europe. Those flow signals have been quite euro bullish over the last few weeks, added to the euro, which is also a part of the dollar trend. That is important. We have to talk about the recovery fund, but there are things going on in europe that have been important. We even saw euro stoxx outperform last week. That doesnt happen often, but that shows theres something going on with policy in europe giving many investors some hope. Jens, there is a lot of positives but what about prospect of deflation . Jens what was really quite remarkable about this recession, lets call it a recession, is that policymakers have been so incredibly aggressive and very quickly incredibly aggressive. Just look at the u. S. Credit market. We have literally a complete credit spreadhe wide and for a few weeks. It now, they are back in normal territory. The policy response is powerful. In an going to be environment well activity where activity will be normal. Policymakers have done what they can. I would say we are in a low inflation environment. I do not think it is anymore deflationary then we have had deflationary risk in the past. I said , thank you sovig much. We are thrilled he was with us this morning. We have much more coming up. Olivia blanchard is scheduled to be with us in a few hours and we are looking forward to that conversation. We want to mention gideon rose will join us from Foreign Affairs magazine, who has been truly industryleading, and the conversation on this pandemic, linked into the economic collapse. Gideon rose coming up next. A pullback, finally, day after day finally, after day after day up. Futures are 30ish. This is bloomberg. You doing okay . Yeah. This moving thing never gets any easier. Well, xfinity makes moving super easy. I can transfer my internet and tv service in about a minute. Wow, that is easy. Almost as easy as having those guys help you move. We are those guys. Thats you . The truck adds 10 pounds. In the arms. Okay. Transfer your Service Online in a few easy steps. Now thats simple, easy, awesome. Transfer your service in minutes, making moving with xfinity a breeze. Visit xfinity. Com moving today. Ncine lets get the first word news. In congress are questioning the need for a multitime stimulus because of the surprise rebound by u. S. Job markets. Lawmakers will have to decide the extra approve benefits. The Senate FinanceCommittee Takes up the matter today. Slammed President Trumps handling of the economy. He said the president inherited the longest economic expansion in history from the obamabiden missed ration administration. He says President Trump is turning his back on the middle class for corporations and the wealthy. At 1. 25 million for the Minneapolis Police officer. He is expected to enter a plea at his next court appearance. North korea is shutting off communications with south korea. It hasguns regime says carried out hostile acts. Kim werecritical of attached to balloons. Than 2700 more journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries, this is bloomberg. Thank you so much. Every month i have to go out and resell the most read magazine to keep you a breath of a good crosssection. That is Foreign Affairs magazine. Toeon rose is kind enough join us. He is the one who pieces it together. It is a look this month at the world after the pandemic. That he is aiate chair at the council on foreign relations. He was shocked at the debt build up. How do we have a world with all of those trillions and trillions of dollars of global debt . Always for theas kind words. It is a great question. We have a wonderful piece that talks about the age of magic money. What has happened is you are right. We have taken on dramatically more debt than anybody ever what hasas possible, made it acceptable in the short run is low inflation. Those debt burdens are not actually going to be dramatically disastrous for peoples for people unless the inflation comes back. Whether this massive influx of money coming into the system, whether that is going to be supported by low interest rates. Then people are in trouble. I make a joke, theres no such thing as a free lunch. Is no you address there such thing as a free lunch when we come out of this crisis . This is a great question. Everybody thought japan was going to do horribly over the last 20 years economically. Theyve managed to not do nearly as badly as people have thought in a variety of ways. We may be going for a different kind of future than people expected. When thequestion is consequences of the disasters of the last few months get priced by the public around the atld, all of that anger people and governments who have failed to do well comes out. Where will it be directed . That is the big question. We have a great piece in the issue that is essentially arguing you will probably not see a lot of international conflict. At least not as much as people think. The crisis has affected everybody. You will see a lot of domestic turmoil in states that didnt respond well. Since very few states have outlook is for lots of domestic turbulence over the next stretch. Rippled through the policies and political economies of the world and people try to make sense of who exactly is responsible for all the bad things. Inwarde is it more looking . We talk about protectionism or is it a way to stimulate your own economy within your borders . Gideon the countries that did well in responding to the first phases of the crisis were ones that had strong state capacity, a National Cohesive consciousness, and leadership that actually works. You need all three of those things. South korea, germany, you had a few examples of this. Didnt have the social cohesion, or the leadership to be able to respond effectively. They have suffered dramatically. Who will pay the price of that . It is much easier to see the leaders who will be in deep trouble after this. Putin may be in more trouble. The politicians in each country are trying to deflect blame from themselves onto others. The race that is going on is the race to define the narrative about who is responsible for all of the bad things that are happening. For the politicians having screwed up our inclusion with each other to blame each other. The question will be, will leaderslook at their and say yes it was the bad foreigners . Or will they say we need to cooperate better and we want leaders who wont divide things. We just dont know where the passions and anger will come. Tom a really important issue on the pandemic with the Foreign Affairs magazine. This has been widely anticipated not only by wall street and all of the Greater New York area but truly globally. Tiffanys out with a really financials set with including a huge rebound in china in may. What is really extraordinary is the language of tiffanys as they tried to prepare for lvmh. They will do a journey with lvmh. I dont know where journey got into this. In mergers and acquisitions it is never a journey. Francine francine we have some sad news for a lot of oil experts and oil investors. We just found out from the oil former company, the chief executive ian taylor has died. We have interviewed him many times on bloomberg. We knew he was having a long battle with an illness. We just found out he has died. 1985 andr joined in became chief executive in 1995. He had been a longtime chief executive. We will have more on that shortly. Marks the launch of bloomberg green magazine. The issue explores ways stimulus spending and active response can be used towards climate recovery. Byalso features an essay Michael Bloomberg on why the Coronavirus Crisis will be a turning point for climate change. The magazine is available on bloomberg. Com and the terminal. Rose. Back with gideon the latest issue is titled the world after the pandemic. It discusses how to learn from covid19 failure before the next outbreak. We are talking a little bit about how a lot of leaders will come under scrutiny about how they handled the lockdown and how they have handled human lives. If you look at the protests, everything we know in terms of globalization, how different were will our world look because of the pandemic . That is fascinating and one that is impossible to answer. Everyone knew the markets absolutely were going to be the best. As political market is just hard to predict as the economic market. , what is thects shape of the political recovery . Or the geopolitical recovery . Is it a v, l, nike swoosh . Riseve seen is a dramatic in lack of cooperation, international scapegoating, play itthering, lets all again together in a few months. We have done that. What comes after that . If we believe these policies some people believe these are the bringers of the shrinkage in the return to National Boundaries and reshoring activities. I dont think north korean type selfreliance as an ideology is effective for the 21st century. I think there are ways you could deal with things like supply change by diversifying them internationally rather than simply reshoring them. What you are going to see is some kind of reaction against the immediate panic. Then the question is will there be any kind of resurgence of cooperation . Or will things go even further into tension . Will they just slog on for the next couple years with everyone angry and upset with no one actually changing things directly . Given what you have just said, what does that mean for the u. S. Election in november . You read my mind. Every single author in the issue points to the extraordinary importance of agency and personal decisionmaking in this crisis over the last several months. We have seen the importance of leaders around the world. Unfortunately, there are far more examples of leaders who have not led well then there are ones that have led well. Perhaps thewe have most bizarre example of a leader who has essentially refused to lead at all in the middle of a giant national crisis. Know, the u. S. Is large right now. This is not my problem right now, this is someone elses problem and it will go away. If that attitude continues the world will continue to spiral out of control. If the u. S. Adapts a more constructive role, it is possible things could be pulled back together because we all benefit from connection with cooperation. Was joe of the things biden out of the bunker, is there a Democratic PartyForeign Policy or is there a democrat foreign theory that is evident . Gideon there are a lot of voices that want a dramatic change. Think the biden administrations Foreign Policy will be radically different. It may well be more committed to what we used to call liberal internationalism than its predecessors. Turbulence of the last few years has pushed the republicans to the right, it has pushed democrats further into an embrace of the opposite. That mean some kinds of constructive use of government to solve problems. Will be the hallmark of bidens Foreign Policy. Into athey get stuck political debate over the china question. That will be more of who is a scapegoat and will the public respond . They need government help and government support, how will that change the individuals that want and will have with their government. We will see them intervene a lot more. We have realized in this crisis is you just cant think of government, societies, politicians. We are tied together in the world and the policies. The solutions to the kinds of problems we have now, how to control Public Health while managing to support economic recovery. There things the public really needs to have done. Hopefully what we could look forward to, the greatest lack we have right now is a public constructivet is and rather than reaping the political benefits from tension. The problems are real but it is about how you respond to them. Governments cannot do it alone. Maybe we could move forward. Francine thank you so much. Gideon rose joining us this morning. The johns speak with nurse manager. E we speak about covid19. This is bloomberg. Pg e has become one of the companies tofile announce it is leaving San Francisco for neighboring oakland. Aimed it is a move aimed at lowering costs. The company will lease the building in oakland with an option to buy. Above the marketed range and raised 468 million in its ipo. Vroom is valued at more than 2. 5 billion. The coronavirus pandemic may make people more likely to buy cars online. Wendys will revive its famous commercials from the 1980s. The slaughterhouse is closing forced wendys to focus on chicken for a while. They say things are back to normal. That is the Bloomberg Business flash. Francine thank you so much. As we track the virus, bloomberg has developed a unique partnership with a leading authority on covid19. Johns hopkins has been at the forefront of international response. Everyday we bring you experts Public Health and emergency preparedness. Thank you so much for joining us today. Report thatis who took many by surprise. It is rare to have a symptom list person pass on the disease. I actually read the press release from the who and i do having some validity that the asymptomatic population does not transmit the disease is very important to the reopening process. What do we still not understand . If youre just a citizen trying to figure out what you need to to . Who should we listen we were told not to wear masks, and then to wear masks in certain places. What are you certain about that we need to do to make certain we are safe . Neysa i always talk about a few simple things. One of them is wearing the mask. And handstancing sanitizing. We had Johns Hopkins are starting to reopen for our outpatients on the more wider basis. Those are three of the topics we actually had to be reviewed on. We had to sit down and speak measuring outut six feet so we could really be social distancing for the importance that it was. One of the important things that we noticed was the transmissions that we have seen among employees primarily are in situations where social distancing, like a breakroom, may not be as strict as in another area. Tohave really gone down those days. The masks, the social distancing, and the sanitizing. Would you send kids back to school there was appropriate social distancing . Neysa children are sort of the variable. It is difficult for children to understand social distancing. I dont know the answer to that. There would have to be work about how you could get that message clear to children and how children could do that on a consistent basis. Thank you so much. In every day for exclusive conversations with Johns Hopkins experts for an inside look at battling covid19. We are looking at live pictures of hong kong today. It marks one year since the june 9 rally in hong kong which sun estimated one million residents march. Second protest game later days later saw violent clashes between demonstrators and police. Democracy activists face even steeper odds with looming security. We will continue bringing the very latest from hong kong throughout the day. We will bring you the latest on the markets. U. S. Equity futures are following on worries that the rally in risk assets overshot the recovery. , more bloomberg surveillance. Sino cast on Bloomberg Radio and television from 7 00 a. M. In new york and 12 00 p. M. In london. This is bloomberg. Mandatell, within its , continue to support the recovery with all appropriate measures. What is important is adapting to what central bankers are doing these days. Imbalances isbout at some point, they reversed. This is true about income inequality in the u. S. , too. This is bloomberg ,urveillance with tom keene jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. Jonathan good morning. With equity futures negative, we are live on bloomberg tv and radio. Alongside tom keene, im jonathan ferro, together with lisa abramowicz. Little reminder, this morning the stocks can go down as well. , we see rightge