Happening with the vaccine story. Depending on which market you were looking at, one is winning out. Here in europe, the bulk of equity markets are writing higher today, and its been a good week. The ftse 100 being dragged lower by names like hsbc, which is certainly down quite sharply. That obviously relates back to what is happening in hong kong. A big impact there. You can ripple that out into what is happening as well within the commodity space. Copper trading down by over 2 . U. K. , data out of the some deficit data that is terrifying, but in some ways to be anticipated. Again, the market has largely priced that in. We are going into a long weekend. Do you want to carry risk over this weekend . The pound trading 1. 2177 on the cable rate. Vonnie hong kong chief executive carrie lam spoke a short time ago, addressing the unrest caused by chinas new National Security legislation. For more on what carrie lam is saying and what exactly is going on in china, lets get to our first guest, stephen roach. How do you view the most recent developments out of china . Is it something that the market will price in . Stephen good morning. They are certainly a tempting to decipher a number of different signals going on in the last 24 hours. Weve had a trifecta of of developments. Congressnal peoples and failure to provide a growth target for the First Time Since proposed newe National Security which has dramatic impact on hong kong independence, autonomy, and role as a Financial Center. Tordly, the u. S. Efforts firmsen to delist chinese from listing in u. S. Markets, you put them altogether together and you have just got a confluence of events which raises real questions about not only our relationship with china, but chinas relationship with the rest of the world. The hong kong selloff is just one indication of how disconcerting that is appearing to be. Is there anything more sinister about this episode then about previous episodes . It got heated before the coronavirus pandemic, and then calm that little bit. Are you seeing something more sinister here . Stephen i dont know if sinister is the right word, but we are in a cold war. This is exactly the type of confrontational development on both sides of the relationship that you would expect in a cold or in a cold war. Thead with great interest latest u. S. Statement on our relationship with china. The white house released a 20 called they United States strategic approach to the peoples republic of china. This was a cold war manifesto by the Trump Administration, and when you are in the midst of a chinas, actions like new proposed National Security delistingg kong, the ,f threats by the u. S. Senate the u. S. Administrationa , who isto huawei already on the entity list, these are the kind of escalating frictions you would expect as the trade war has gone into a thenavirus war, with all of allegations and threats the madeo trump nexus has towards putting the virus squarely on the chinese authorities. Unfortunatery escalating turn of events between our nation and china. Stephen, you talk about the fact that this was a trade war that has morphed into something of. Has it now morphed into a capital war . You talk about listings, the issue of pension money not being funneled into china. The u. S. Has huge amounts of firepower at its disposal when it comes to capital markets. Do you see this becoming a capital war . Stephen i think that is already apparent right now. Theres an economic war in terms of trade flows, and i financial war in terms of access to our markets by companies in terms of listing and providing capital to china. The question we need to address strategically is what do we gain type ofs, and what behavioral change do we inflict or expect out of china in response to this. I think you can debate that. It is not clear what we gain from this if china is able to transform its economy into more of a consumer services, Technology Driven economy, and investors or companys what to put dissipate in that out. We really impose fundamental change on chinese behavior by those actions, that is debatable. Guy lets talk about what this means at a more granular level. As you say, we are maybe already morphing towards a capital war. If you run jp morgan, what does this mean for your business . If you run hsbc, what does this mean for your business . Hsbc has a huge domicile in hong kong. Huge exposure to asia. Also looking to see if expand their presence in china. Do i now put that on hold . Do i expect that to not grow into the kind of business i wouldve anticipated . Ofphen i was in a position being the chairman of Morgan Stanley asia, so we were dealing political types of pressures when i was there, although they had they have certainly intensified a lot. The focus of all of these multinational Financial Services firms i think is to deepen their businesses domestically in china , working with Chinese Companies and their own Capital Raising activities, looking over their shoulder at pressures that may washington, and mindful of the risk this might have on crossborder listings and Crossborder Capital flows. If anything, this is a time for all of these Financial Services firms to deepen their relationships inside of china and hope that reason will prevail at some point and allow the crossborder flows to work in a more orderly and predictable way. Vonnie you write that the guy is now cast that the die is now cast. Theres optimism later on that we will get to, but before we get to that, what are the tectonic shifts you see for america and china as a result of this rupture this rupture . Stephen ive been studying this relationship for 25 years, and this is by far the worst state anything,n in, and if as we are seeing overnight and likely to see in the weeks and months ahead, it is going to get worse between now and november 3. This has become one of the top issues in the president ial campaign. Look no further than the republican partys own strategic election document, the socalled corona big book, which was leaked on politico a few weeks ago. Attacked china is the main thread of the campaign. So theres no reasonable hope to repair this relationship between now and november 3, and we will see where it goes afterwards, but we are embroiled in a good oldfashioned, increasingly nasty cold war. Vonnie will the chinese currency be used as a weapon . Stephen i doubt it. I think the renminbi, as you pointed out in the lead to this discussion we are having, is we getting in the offshore markets, but that is a normal reflection of what the news flow has been overnight, and that is not surprising, but i did not suspect, given chinas emphasis on maintaining stability in its financial system, that it would weaponize the renminbi and use the sharp devaluation to boost its economy. , and theher levers work report delivered a few hours ago underscores the breadth of those letters those leaders. Those levers. Guy one thing important to china is its access to the Global Financial system, and it generally does that via hong kong, or has up until now. Are you surprised about the moves being made by the chinese to thisies with regard legislation that could be applied to hong kong . Is there a danger that the u. S. Responds on that, and the peg goes, and maybe hong kong as a Financial Center starts to degrade . Stephen it is a disappointing development. Theres no way to really characterize it as anything else. Bit fromback a little the intensity of the moment and think about these increasingly destabilizing demonstrations that have been evident in the streets of hong kong over the past year or so. China know anything about , china is about stability, not instability. So we see this imposition of law on the hong kong system from beijing. It is not as shocking a develop. Eant as you might think it is steadfast and focusing on to come up with a recipe for stability on its own accord, and certainly bubbled this extradition law as triggering instability, and has been unable to successfully resolve it. Guy do you worry with the november election fast approaching that this will be taken as an excuse if we do see the situation it in hong kong escalating . From beijings point of view, you can see why they may want to impose this. Thats why they may want to oppose this why they may want to impose this. But from the washington perspective, there is also an election to be thought of. D. C. Ry that as a result, or senators see this as an opportunity to remove that special status currently in place. Stephen they may do it. Outcome ofthe washington right now is a fools is fairlythere widespread, bipartisan sentiment against china right now, so this proposal that made its way through the senate now has to go to the house, and we will see if the president wants to sign it or not. We have seen nothing but belligerence and frets and threats from the congress and the Trump Administration with respect to china since the trade war began in 2018. Coronavirus has just been another unfortunate escalation of accusations and largely unfounded conspiracy theories, which have intensified the animosity that many politicians feel with respect to china. So i wouldnt rule out further escalation. The question is what will we get a sense ofother than satisfaction that we are tightening the screws on china . Will this damage the chinese economy and the development of china . That is certainly something to debate. I doubt it, though. Vonnie think youve thank you very much for your time today. That is stephen roach. Coming up, we are live in hong kong. This is bloomberg. Financialas the Market Reaction to those incidents, i think we may not be over worried because the stock market goes up and comes down. What is important is the robustness of hong kongs regulatory system, and i have been insured by the financial secretary and the chairwoman of the Hong Kong Exchange here that the system is robust as ever. Hong kong chief executive carrie lam speaking a short time ago. Lets bring into the conversation bloombergs yvonne man from hong kong. China has decided to take a much harder line. How much of a surprise has this been to those living in hong kong . Yvonne the market seems to be surprised, but most people in hong kong were expecting Something Like this to happen. It has been sometime since this bill that was stalled, since 2003, was forced to scrap it. Goingers have been through their own scuffles just to try to appoint someone, let alone pass any legislation. It signals perhaps that their patience is running thin. They are frustrated by the months of unrest, by lawmakers who have failed to get through this legislation, so the new is to skip the legislative process. Vonnie carrie lam said this morning hong kong will remain a free society, but we know before the apex of the coronavirus pandemic, protests were massive across hong kong out of fear of what would happen. What can people do to protest now, given that theres still the threat of coronavirus out there . Will they protest . Yvonne we have already heard calls from the prodemocracy front. We have seen some activists in the streets, handing out leaflets to people, educating nationalt this security law. We have heard some protest gatherings being planned over the weekend as well. Hong kong still has the social distancing measures in place. They only limit public gatherings up to eight people, so if we see a big group going on over the weekend, that could potentially lead to some arrests from police. Something to look out for over the weekend. Remain they have concerns that hong kong will remain a free society, so we could see more demonstrations that have already returned in recent weeks. Guy is there a sense in hong kong that washington has the protesters back . That washington is concerned about what is happening in hong kong . To what extent does that feed the fire a little bit in terms of the way these protests may take vice . May take place . They continue to call on the u. S. For their support. We have heard from president trump, saying if the law goes through, the u. S. Will address this issue very strongly. They threatened to renege on the phase one trade deal. The big issue is whether the u. S. Is serious about withdrawing Hong Kong Special status. We were speaking to experts about this. If beijing were to do so, they believe that perhaps their punishing hong kong and the businesses here more so than hong kong believe that perhaps they are punishing hong kong in the businesses here more so than china itself, just ramping up beijings existing plan to absorb hong kong and make it another state in southern china. Wayerhaps the tool in the the u. S. Can actually retaliate on beijing are quite limited at this point. That is something we have to think about, as this hong kong issue has further inflamed trade tensions. Vonnie thank you for staying on top of anything. That is bloombergs yvonne man. Later, we are live in beijing with the view from there. Lets check markets now. He is kailey leinz. Kailey it is a broadly down day for equity markets. Tensions really weighing on Risk Appetite as we head into the weekend, with major averages in the u. S. Lower by a few tenths of 1 , following the worst day for hong kong stocks since 2008. Weakness in u. K. Banks that have heavy exposure to hong kong, the tensions could impact revenue targets, taking hsbc and Standard Chartered down, as well as prudential, which is down more than 8 come on pace for its worst day in about two years. Alibaba is lower by more than 4 , posting just 22 growth in sales in this quarterly report. That is the slowest growth ever. Deere slightly higher. Its results were better than feared. Agricultural machinery holding up better than thought in the face of the pendant. After forecasts were really in line. Footlocker not so lucky, down by more than 6 after reporting a 43 drop in comp sales in the First Quarter. Finally, oil is lower today, given that uncertainty around china growth. Even if it is down on the day, it is up on the fourth weekly gain for oil and around. This is bloomberg. Vonnie just want to bring you through some of the Market Action over the last few hours. We have the offshore yuan we getting, above 7. 15 right now. Tensions ratcheting up in china. Down 0. 3 percent. Plenty of positive stories. You can see crude is down 4. 4 . This is bloomberg. There are times when our need to connect really matters. To keep customers and employees in the know. To keep business moving. Comcast business is prepared for times like these. Powered by the nations largest gigspeed network. To help give you the speed, reliability, and security you need. Tools to manage your business from any device, anywhere. And a team of experts here for you 24 7. Weve always believed in the power of working together. Thats why, when every connection counts. You can count on us. Guy from london, im guy johnson, with vonnie in new york. This is bloomberg markets. Lets check the bloomberg first word news with ritika gupta. Ritika china planning to, limit the first phase of its trade deal with the u. S. , despite rising tensions and the coronavirus outbreak. The centerpiece was a promise to buy more u. S. Goods and services. Even before the pandemic, analysts questioned whether those targets were realistic. Now those look even further out of reach. The u. S. Will inform pressure today that it is withdrawing from an armscontrol treaty designed to promote transparency between the u. S. And russia. The 35 nation agreement gave countries permission to fly in each others airspace to collect data on military activities. That stoped concerned about the reemergence of deflation. Ans central bank passengers arriving in the u. K. Will be forced to quarantine for two weeks and face fines of more than 1200 if they break the rules. The plan is designed to stop travelers from reintroducing the coronavirus to the country after becoming infected overseas. Officials say the measures will be reviewed every three weeks. Global news 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. Im at a cuba im riddick a cuba im riddick a cuba. This is im riddick a kuchta im ritika gupta. Bloomberg. Guy leaders and china are using the International Peoples using the National Peoples congress to highlight what they see as success in containing the virus and underscore the strength of the Chinese Communist party as it faces growing international and domestic clash over the hand domestic backlash over the handling of the pandemic. We are joined by selina wang from beijing. Not wondering whether or the news weve had out of the npc today comes as something of a surprise. We have dropped the economic forecast. We have dropped from the reference to taiwan, and weve got this new hong kong situation developing as well. Is this a group of people that feel that they have to project authority at the moment, that they have to project power as a result of what has been going on over the last few months . This is a you said, highly choreographed event. The purpose is partially to protect strength and power to the domestic people, as well as the rest of the world. What you are seeing is especially symbolic because it shows that china has successfully contained the virus outbreak. You see thousands of officials in an to beijing impressive array of coordination, but i see say, the gdp target when it comes to that in particular does not come as a surprise, but it is a big deal because this is the first time they have been dropping that target in decades. It serves as a guide for policymakers and local officials in terms of setting their investment and spending, so the fact that they are dropping that really just underscores the scale of the outbreak and how much disruption it has really caused. When it comes to other parts of billion ine had 500 spending bonds to boost infrastructure investment. You have a big focus on employment, as well as increasing that budget deficit to 3. 6 , more than 3. 6 . We can touch on hong kong a bit more later, but the timing of that bill, the announcement they plan to pass that bill, does come as a surprise. They are picking this particular moment to be so assertive and aggressive on this. Benie these things tend to planned for weeks and months in advance, including the statement, including any actions. Do we know if anything was added or subtracted recently, given the most recent developments between the u. S. And china . For example, the Foreign Ministry tweeting yesterday was pretty unprecedented. Selina it is very hard to say, but that gdp target, we had reported weeks before that china was considering dropping that target, given that it is too much of a risk to list a specific number there. If it is too high, it increases the debt load. If it is too low, it is an admission that they wont meet their own target of doubling gdp this decade. And it comes to u. S. china relations, they did mention that china is going to continue to uphold that phase one trade deal , which does show a glimmer of can beat trade relations that one thread of cooperation amid this rapid spiral in bilateral relations. The big question there is if it is even realistic for china to be able to reach that target increasing 200 billion dollars worth of purchases of u. S. Goods over the next two years, given the current economic environment in the u. S. And china, and around the world. Just in terms of what this all means for the chinese stimulusnd for what the markets can expect, in , that was a huge part of driving the Global Economy back from the brink. Just in terms of size and scale, what can we expect from china . What are analysts and economists saying about what will come in terms of that Stimulus Program . Stephen if you compare it selina if you compare it to the wake of the Global Financial crisis, they have been very clear they are not going to unleash that much stimulus because they dont want to run up the Financial Risks and the debt load. You are seeing moderate stimulus which was outlined by the premier in terms of continuance of those special Government Bond purchases. They are continuing prudent but strong Monetary Policy easing, see you have seen cuts in the loan prime rate, and the Monetary Policy, in increasing the money supply. But the really big focus is jobs and employment. An increasingly important part of that Chinese Communist rule and legitimacy is rising employment, rising wages. Abouting to bnp paribas, 130 Million People in china were laid off or furloughed as a result of the pandemic, so this is very important to them. They said they want to increase jobs this year by 9 million, less than last years 11 last years 11 million target. Vonnie our thanks to bloombergs selina wang in beijing. For more on this story, lets bring in Bloomberg International economics and policy correspondent michael mckee. More broadly, with everything that has happened this week, from china to domestic data out, what did we learn about the Global Economy and where we are at . Michael we know that we are still struggling, and the idea that we would get a vshaped rebound is probably not going to happen. China has locked down more people as they are getting a sort of second wave. Have seen that another Southeast Asian countries as well. That is something to keep in mind. The other aspect is that china has been one of the engines of growth of the world for a number of years now, and it is not going to be. The bloomberg Consensus Forecast for growth is just 20 now. In 2021, they are expected to grow 8 . For now, they are not going to have that extra buyer out there that the world had been counting on. It means Slower Growth overall for everyone. Guy talking of buyers, as the u. S. Tries to sell more and more debt, china has traditionally been a reasonably substantial buyer of that debt. Is there a danger here that that could be put at risk . Everybody is trying to manage their economies at the moment. The chinese are going down one route. They are not going to stimulate heavily. The u. S. Is going down a completely different route and is going to need a lot of buying for that paper. Michael it is hard to know exactly what is going to happen. So far, we have seen uptake of u. S. Paper. Nobody is worried about it. The chinese have primarily been buying over the years to keep the yuan stable to the dollar because they havent pegged it. To try to keepy the currency in line. They havent been doing that for some time now. A by small amounts, but the last report was a small decline from china. As long as they dont start selling off huge holdings, and people dont really expect them to because then they lose money, it shouldnt really make a difference. There should be enough buyers elsewhere in the world. Vonnie is covid an opportunity for the u. S. And china to see some warming of relations once again . If china, for example, develops a vaccine that is dependable before the u. S. , clearly the u. S. Will need chinas support, right . Michael well, you are asking a question that a lot of people are asking, and answering sadly, no at this point. It could be an opportunity, but the two sides dont want to seem to work together. There are issues that seem to preclude that. The president and secretary of state are very strong against china these days, but that is in part because it is an Election Year in the u. S. The chinese responding to that with nasty comments about both of them. We will see if the two sides could come together, but probably next year would be the first time you might see some kind of reset. The danger is if china doesnt follow through or cant follow through on its phase one commitments, the u. S. Administration might go after them even harder. Vonnie michael mckee, thank you so much for the context. Michael mckee is bloombergs International Politics and economics correspondent. This is bloomberg. Vonnie live from new york, im vonnie quinn, alongside guy johnson in london. This is bloomberg markets. Broad markets rising pigeons between the u. S. And china rising tensions between the u. S. And china. Joining us is bloombergs james seyffart. There is one tf higher right now. What is it one etf higher right now. What is it . James theres different ways to slice and dice these stocks. All of these make it very difficult, and different etfs have different exposure to different types of rocks. Holds stocks traded on hong kong in hong kong, and that is down 2. 3 . E from ishares, holds stocks in hong kong, and that is down the lowest. Guy Goldman SachsJust Launched their first set of core equity beta products in the United States. Walk me through the pricing of these. These core beta products, are what most people tend to think about when they think etfs. They are supercheap market beta exposure. You slice them into different areas. U. S. Equities, international, emerging markets. Goldman just jumped into the sandbox, and it is a big deal. They priced pretty far above where they expected. We expect them to press very cheaply. Bny mellon also launched recently, and they have a couple of etfs that are zero. We expected goldman to be down there, but they basically decided they werent going to go down there. This area is donated by vanguard and blackrock. One basis point change in fees can move billions of dollars, and goldman basically decided we are not going to compete on price with this move. Why do you think goldman went that route . What is the strategy . Know for cant certain, but there has to be some sort of strategy here. These products are completely redundant. Theres at least 10 etfs very simmler to what they have offered, and they are just not worried about offering the cheapest product. What we think they are going to do is sell these as packaged portfolios to clients. What other clients have done is follow this model where you otherassets from products with competing issuers and bring them to their own products being offered. Does goldmans move on pricing change the market . Do others follow . As you say, this is dominated by some very big players like vanguard. James time will tell, but basically, what this tells me is that goldman has excepted they are not going to compete with like rock and vanguard on cheap beta products, so they are just going to offer more realistic beta pricing. There are other issues out there. First trust, for example, doesnt really try to compete on price. They are very successful. Byoa model, bring your own assets, goldman has competing products, so even if they move money over, it should be successful. These products arent that expensive. If you look in the u. S. , they are charging seven basis points, where the average is 11 basis points. Emerging markets are charging 34. Where the average is they are not supercheap, but they also didnt go extremely expensive either. And relative to a couple of years ago, these are incredibly cheap prices. Thank you very much, indeed. Bloomberg intelligence etf analyst james seyffart. Vonnie it is time now for our stock of the hour. Heres kailey leinz. Kailey deere is off its highs of the session, but still higher by about 1 after its First Quarter results. It really just could have been a lot worse. Deere makes farm equipment. It is very sensitive to the Global Economy, but demand for Agricultural Machinery is proving more resilient than expected in the face of the coronavirus pandemic. Sales did fall 18 . Profit dropped, too. Plus, the company is keeping costs down, and pricing is better, so that helped on the margin. All of that was good news. Another big surprise, the company reinstated its fullyear earnings guidance. Today, saying its forecasting profit of 1. 6 billion to 2 billion. That was just shy of estimates mind a lot of the numbers arent great. Deere expects 2020 worldwide ag Equipment Sales to fall between 10 and 15 this years. They see a sales drop of between 30 and 40 . Despite all of that, analysts and Bloomberg Intelligence say the fact that they reinstated this guidance is a positive sign, and they think it may actually be a little bit conservative, given the strengths we have seen this corder. Another thing analysts are noting is how strong deeres Liquidity Position is. They have raised about 4. 5 billion, plus, with capital expense and operating expense reductions the company is making, they have really bolstered optimism about liquidity. They are wellcapitalized to get through this period of uncertainty. One other thing we have to note on manufacturing and production issues in the face of this virus, are they actually operational . Executives set on the call that all of their global facilities are operating, but with a few at lower capacities. That is your stock of the hour. Guy thank you very much, indeed. Lets go from tractors to planes. Coming up next weekend, the coronavirus pandemic has the Airline Industry facing the worst crisis in its history. I am going to be hosting a special report with ceos, policymakers, Industry Leaders weighing in on the future of flight. That is next friday, 7 00 p. M. New york. This is bloomberg. Vonnie live from new york, im vonnie quinn, alongside guy johnson in london. This is bloomberg markets. Time for futures and focus. Oil retreating from the highest level in two months after china did not set its target growth. Chino s is bobby a is bob iaccino of path trading partners, normally at the cme. China ising like dispensing with Economic Growth forecasts knocks it will 30, are we good . Bob good morning. I believe we are. We are measurably higher for a reason, and part of that is because demand is coming back, as well as the perennial drop we have seen in rig counts in the u. S. , along with commitments of production cuts that have exceeded expectations. I think we are well on our way to 37, even 40 in terms of wti. Probably not much higher than that until we see concrete demand as opposed to expectation of demand. Vonnie exactly. The situation isnt getting any better, and now we have china piling on, not giving an official forecast. Our own forecast at bloomberg talking about a one handle for growth. Can oil possibly hold onto anything near a 40 a barrel price at that rate of growth . Bob i dont believe it can hold onto a 40 price. That is why i am looking at that as saying we can possibly get there. Maintain orders even if they run into an economic slowdown, see you are likely looking at prices falling through 40 because china will likely commit to the orders they have placed. We havent seen a huge decline in how far we are in terms of storage above the fiveyear average. That has to happen. In the short term, i think you will see us Holding Prices above 30, regardless of what happens in china. Vonnie steel saw a shocking month in april. Copper down another 2 now. What is the outlook, and what are you doing in terms of putting on trades . Bob copper is a different story simply because copper is actually a form of currency in china when they are active, and when their gdp is up in the 6 to 9 range weve become used to. Copper does have more downside than crude oil because it is so tied to china. Even if they keep the flow of copper at the current levels, it is likely to fall. Weve had copper mines closed in places like peru, the largest minor of copper. Those were not necessarily given a date to reopen, but they will reopen. The supply of copper is actually decrease,ncrease, not amid slowing purchases from china. So i think copper has downside. Vonnie and steel . Is there any commodity that interests you right now from a long position perspective . Bob gold and silver. More gold than silver. I believe gold can probably rise 15 from where it is now simply because of the correlation to the expansion of the Central Bank Balance sheets across the globe that perception of devaluation. I think gold has definitely got a tailwind. Vonnie we are already at evan at 1736. 10. Bloomberg business flash. Will freeze hiring and raises for the rest of the year. Shrinking spending on information technology. Ford throwing a lifeline to the auto parts suppliers it uses facing a cash crunch. It has paid bills early to make sure that crucially needed parts keep flowing into its factories. North American Auto industry is restarting after that two month shut down. That is your Bloomberg Business flash. What have we got coming up for you . We are goingto get back to the markets and see what is happening with this china story. Daniel morris, bnp paribas investment strategist, will be joining us. That is next. This is bloomberg. Mberg. From london, im guy johnson, with vonnie quinn in new york. We are counting you down to the european close here on bloomberg markets. European equities just above the flat line this morning on the back of what is happening in china and hong kong come and we see the impact on what has happened with the chinese equity story as well. The hang seng overnight down by 5. 5 . European equities now back to flat. Weve got enemy copper weve got l. A. Me copper weve got lme copper down by over 2 . The mix in terms of the sector story for equities here in europe i truly reasonably positive in europe actually reasonably positive most european markets have outperformed u. S. Markets this week. Vonnie here in the u. S. , we will have to see how the next fee hours go. Right now we are down slightly for the s p 500