Pandemic could do lasting harm to u. S. Productivity. And bnp paribas warns earnings will see a big hit from the outbreak as it takes more than one billion dollars in charges as a writedown. Economyr view, the getting back to normalization will be happening at the best at the end of the year and a return to gdp to normal will not be before 2022. Voice of guidance for those numbers. Warning that profitability could drop as much as 20 this year. Between 15 20 is the warning. In the dropping by 14 quarter but it is the announcer 9rovision covid1 provision. When you think about what has come so far, santander, 1. 6 billion. Deutsche bank was 500 million. What you see here is para bof taking a smack at the equity side of the business. Fixed income commodities rising by 35 . Those are the top line numbers. Let us get to lars maca henil. Were three projections impacting. The cost of risk. 500 million. Literally affect is leading to the accounting. Our portfolios are growing linked to what the markets do. They went down. This was a negative affect which normally would pay for backup when the market returns. 9nd the third impact of covid1 is when it comes to the decisions taken by authorities to strongly recommend that dividends be paid which would have an impact on our dividends. Guy will we have to see further provisioning . I know we are getting into macroeconomic territory. If you look at it, the based that we see now is on the confinement that we are seeing. The question is how will we get out of this . In france, this will start next week. A lot will depend how this d econfinement will work. It all depends on how this will go. It will really depend on the speed at which the recovery appens and if there is not next step in the crisis it is just a little too early to say. Guy nevertheless, it looks like be slow andg will gradual. Governments around europe are publishing guidelines for corporations. To bring workers back into the facilities. Given the and likelihood that economies will be operating smaller, Certain Companies will have trouble dealing with those requirements. Will you expect them to suffer more going through this . Depends on the sector. The way we look at it is we looked at how they were in february. If they were good in february, we continue to see how they will fare where the coronavirus is active. Is, how the question will they move through this period . Will they pick up less or more . That is the uncertainty. But in our view, the pickup of the economy back to normalization, it will be happening at the best by the end of the year and there for a return of the gdp to normal will not be before 2022. Madame lagarde is making a lot of cheap money available. What are your expectations about how that system will work . How you will access it . Role inwill it play a the transition . Is there areu see a lot of steps being taken by the supervisors to make sure that banks can play a role. 2008, theyisis in had a hard time with the crisis. Now, banks should not be suffocated so they should be able to transmit the money and be able to play their role. That is what you are seeing taking place. There are some changes in the requirements so banks can play their role and banks can pass on the money into the economy. You see that all of the steps are being taken for banks to play that supporting role to get out of this pandemic. That was bnp paribas cfo lars mocoachenil. The estimate was four point eight 3 billion. A little stronger on the First Quarter revenue that the First Quarter adjusted ebit a number comes in at one edge of 54 million euros, down 32 year on year. Not a huge flow in terms of numbers for adecco that we were warned this would be a tricky set of results because we are seeing the first concrete indication of the effect of covid19 and the outlook will be super important especially as we look ahead to what is being called an unimaginable jobs report for the end of this week at of the u. S. We will talk about all of the employment trends. We will speak to adecco ceo alain pays coming up shortly. Coming upehaze shortly. Manus we will see of governments have to do more in terms of reemploying. They are putting out their 2020 guidance. They see a bottoming out in the business in the Third Quarter. They talk about the adjusted number. For 500 63e was million. Secondquarter revenue up by 5 . The Companies IncludingSiemens Healthineers on the way to delivering antibody tests. They see a bottoming out and the Third Quarter but they are pulling back from their 2020 guidance. We will have that conversation with the ceo of Siemens Healthineers. Bernd montag. They say the numbers are no longer valid from todays perspective and will not likely be achieved. Bernd will join a shortly. The markets have priced in a risk on momentum this morning. I dont know if the valuations back up to the movement, do they . On you arerisk seeing a across markets is a different picture from when we sat here yesterday. Easing oftly by the lockdowns in california. There are still a number of markets closed in asia including japan. U. S. Futures are on the front foot. A late turned around which was not reflected in europe because europe closed in the red which is perhaps why europe is a little more on the front foot. Perhaps there will be an element of catchup play. Equity trading futures unchanged. The yield may edge up. And a weaker dollar across g10. The aussie was outperforming and that is still higher. The rba kept rates unchanged. Oil seeing a big move. Five days of gains. The best in almost nine months. A number of things playing into that is including opec plus production cuts. As well as the easing of lockdowns starting to take away some of those demand concerns. Manus a staggering 77 . Let us get up to speed with the first word news. Internal u. S. Government projections seeing a surge in virus cases. [indiscernible] is washing its hands of these projections of according to an internal document. Officials say it does not match up to date analysis of the task force. Running with is criticism from opponents and allies. Want to see a Risk Assessment before staff returns to the office. Members of the prime ministers own conservative party are urging him to ease the lockdowns and start getting people back to work. Another threat from the coronavirus has emerged. Like lots. Doctors around the world are noting a rash of blood clotting disorders. Days aftero manifest the virus has ended. It is not unusual for infections to raise the rate of clotting. Global news, 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. Coming up, Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley economists see signs of the World Economy is starting to recover from the coronavirus. We will discuss this next. This is bloomberg. Manus it is daybreak europe. Goldman sachs and Morgan Stanley economist say there is evidence that the World Economy is starting to recover from the coronavirus. The restrictions placed on businesses and consumers. That as governments increasingly ease back on virus restrictions and open up their economies. , Senior Executive capital. T arctk two major houses talking about the foothills of recovery but what is the bigger risk the Economic Data versus the consumer . Consumer confidence is key and that has been shattered. Seen the data coming in on consumer confidence. The numbers for retail sales are important. But no surprise. One of the main risks we are facing is the aspect of the market which is looking at the Financial Market and considering it as a positive recovery relative to the real economy. People like Warren Buffett have warned about the future. It still remains that we do not know the extent of the coronavirus and how long it will be here and if there will be a resurgence of the virus in the fall. It will be unlikely to see vshapedt a recovery type of situation. We could have a prolonged period of low growth and low consumption. Do you know great to speak with you by the way. Goldman sachs cautions that the biggest Downside Risk to the outlook is that infection rate real excel or rates sharply as the economy reopens because recent analysis confirms that much of the medical improvement has resulted from lockdowns and social distancing. Are you braced for another letdown in assets . The thingsnk one of we have to look at is the market is convinced there is a central the fed,in place the ecb, the boj they have all essentially put their money on the line saying they are prepared to backstop the market with credit. The question that remains is at one point in time do we shift into a gdp issue regarding debt . That will come in with italy. That question marks of how long governments can sustain the amount of spending they are into now will come question especially if the lockdown produces a revival of the coronavirus curve. In my point of view, it is very victory claim an early because there is a difference in the Financial Market and the real economy. Have 16 or 17 unemployment. A year ago you would have been hardpressed to believe me. Between a distinction the real economy and the financial asset economy. Aed, if we look at what Deutsche Bank is saying they willhe length of time determine if the crisis moves from being a liquidity crisis which the fed, many would say has prevented a liquidity crisis, it could move to households. Reevs the risk of a olution of a solvency crisis . Seeing that already especially with regard to airlines. Toloyees are being asked take selective resignations or find work elsewhere. Of the assistance much of the assistance given to theorations were based on liquid fixation of the staff. I think we will see a stress on the employment market especially with the debt market in july and august. Will stayd abukarsh with us. You say there is a disconnect between the real economy and the Financial Markets. Legendary short seller, carsten block agrees with you. Coming up next, we speak to adecco ceo, alain dehaze. This is bloomberg. Manus welcome back to daybreak europe. We have just had the adecco numbers. You grieved our viewers. Recapping them. 32 yearadjusted down on year. Firstquarter revenue 5. 1 4 billion. The estimate was for 4. 83. A bead on the revenue side. And in terms of the adjusted at the debt adjusted ebita. Dehaze, theo alain ceo of the adecco group. Great to have you with us. I want to get a sense of where we are when you talk to your customers. Your profits, at your adjusted income is down by already 2 . What has been the worst collapse . Give us the backdrop to that 32 drop year on year in your adjusted ebita. ,lain to answer your question it is good to look at the results of the First Quarter and the revenues were down 9 . Ofrly coming from the month march where the revenues were down 19 . In europe, we experienced a to bedrop, 30 decline compared with north america which was at 9 . On the contrary, japan remained 7 growth. H latin america also in the First Quarter was still at 13 . Transitionctivity in was up 4 . Activities, the general assembly, up 7 . It is clear that the impact started mainly in europe and then spread to north america. That is how you have to see it and it continued and we have now in april revenues down 40 . And with countries having the strictest lockdowns like france, italy, and spain having the biggest impact on the activity around 50 60 down and the others having a reduction of 30 40 of their activity. That is the picture. To date. Nejra thank you for outlining that picture globally for us today. In terms of looking forward then , you did say that the countries with the strictest lockdown had some of the biggest impact on hiring activity. What are you seeing in your trends at the moment that tells you the picture of recovery as we start to ease lockdown in some areas of the world . Think is that the Second Quarter will be difficult but we expect it to be the trough. We see that yes, some of the countries are starting to open slowly but some others are still in the full lockdown. Sign see a kind of early of gradual stabilization but still with a lot of o solarity everywhere it is too early to talk about recovery. We can talk about early stages of gradual stabilization. Manus we caught up with the ceo of salesforce and he said governments must now step in and incentivize aggressively to get were tos to rehire higher. I know there are sideload siloed around workers around. What do governments have to do to incentivize rehiring . Many governments are applying the recipe that germany upside in 2008, supporting temporary unemployment. This measure is spread all over the world come in europe and elsewhere. To do was the right thing to allow economies to rebound quite fast. Second, we are very active with governments around that. It is to make sure that people tend go back in a safe and healthy environment. We are in conversations with governments to make sure that protocols are distributed, that people have no fear to get back to work and gradually, we see economies opening up. I think the measures in many countries have been taken and now we will see how it gradually recovers and if all of the measures are followed. That is the point. Nejra you said today that you believe it would not be appropriate to initiate a Share Buyback program at the current time. In provide an update later 2020. Can you update us on whether you will take any cost that cash saving measures like some of your commit like some of your competitors . Alain we have entered this crisis from a position of financial and operational strengths. We have a very strong Balance Sheet and good liquidity and we also have a good and robust infrastructure. We have many people working from home. Nejra alain . Alain we are also using the government scheme nejra we need to leave it there. , ceo of adecco group. Thank you for joining us. This is bloomberg. Manus good morning from bloomberg headquarters in dubai. I am manus cranny. This is daybreak europe. Here are your top stories. Global stocks rise as california says it will begin lifting its lockdown on friday. Worldwide cases rise. Surgeite house rejects a in the outbreak. Tove mnuchin has a plan issue a trillion dollars to support the economy. The feds Thomas Bartlett says it could do lasting harm to u. S. Productivity. Says thearibas earnings will see a big hit from the corona Virus Outbreak as it takes more than a billion dollar charges in writedowns. Economyr view, the moving back to normalization will happen at the best by the end of the year and therefor a gdp return to normal will not be before 2022. Nejra welcome to daybreak europe. Global cases of coronavirus has passed 3. 5 million with more than 251,000 deaths as countries around the world move to ease restrictions on peoples movements. Hong kongs leader carrie lam says that time has come to left social distancing measures while italy has started reopened its economy. Earlier this hour, we got secondquarter results from Siemens Healthineers. Companycal technology saying they020 view see a bottoming out in the Third Quarter. Joining us now is bernd montag. Great to have you on the show. Thank you for joining us. We will discuss the numbers in a moment but i wanted to start about asking you about the ramp coronavirus antibody testing. Can you give us some guidance on when it will be ready to roll out . And also the impact on the current quarters earnings . We expectest clearance for it at the end of this month and we can ramp up Production Capacity up to 25 million in june. Of course, this is an upside for our business but it very much. Epends on the medical need manus good morning. Che also has a similar test. They hope to make 100 million of these by the end of june. What will the price things and the marchings what will the pricing and the margins be on this . Time tohis is not the. Iscuss pricing as well as our competition doing the same thing. It is really about helping. Pricing will be on the regular of a test. It will very much depend also on the customers who ultimately perform the test. But firstpside for us and foremost, we want to help in this very critical situation. Upside,ou talk about bernd but we were already discussing last week i know it is a Different Company but there was a question between making profit but also helping the world through the pandemic. Is it definitely an upside you will see from these kinds of products . Or could the cost potentially offset any sort of revenue you might make from it . Maybe you know that we also had to withdraw our guidance for the year. I mean againstde the negative impact of the pandemic. This is an area where we have a net new opportunity while in other parts of the business we are impacted by the pandemic. We of course want to recover the costs we have for developing the test. Opinion, they wrong season to optimize margins and to have a contest, a public contest on who has the best are the fastest test. It is about who can help in the fastest way to make the world safe. Manus i think we really do and thete the toll message you want to deliver this morning which is about delivering health and delivering a product that will help us all. Thise interested in what means for the business and i think that is what the shareholders are keen to know. Can i ask you about the rebalancing of the business . You also have hospitals canceling nonelective surgeries. Focusing on the pandemic. You pulled the guidance. Is this part of the reason why you had to pull the guidance because the whole nonelective side of the business is in flux . Give us a sense of what is being pulled back in terms of imaging or therapies. Bernd our business has been impacted in different ways. As you rightfully say, there is a significant reduction in elective procedures. That impacts us directly. Episode. Id per patient here we see the business going down significantly for the time being. It will recover once elective procedures come back and you also of theide covid related testing. But in the end, it is more of a negative than a positive. On the imaging and the therapies business, this is a bigger investment if you wish and here hospitals some hospitals delayed installation of this equipment simply because they are busy taking care of the pandemic. This is a temporary effect. We also see there will be pentup demand because we have a we saw order book a push out of deliveries and orders. That our Service Business is more stable. Nejra right. Bernd it is a stabilizing sector. Nejra that makes sense. Every day,w things every week about this fibrous. At the moment, there are discussions about the fact that coronavirus causes blood clots that can cause harm to other organs even after patients have recovered from the corona virus itself. Some are talking about the clots being things that cause complications in the heart and lungs as well. There will always be opportunities for yourself and others in the industry to develop new products so i wonder if youre getting into any other aspects of coronavirus related medical issues what are you looking at . Bernd im glad you asked that question. I want to remind you that we are in a truly unique position as a company. We are working in vivo and in vitro. We have a lot of digital capabilities. When it comes to fighting a disease in its entirety, it is about understanding the molecular piece. Technology tong see what is happening in the lungs. When it comes to blood clots, we includingong position flat analysis but we also have a strong position when it comes to cardiovascular treatment. There are worries now that there will be strokes in younger patients and this is something we are very active in with our research. Trying to understand it all. Manus bernd, thank you very much. And as you say, now is not the time to talk about margins on your testing. Thank you for your time and we wish you well with the development and delivery of the testing. SecondQuarter Sales, earnings decline. It will be harder. It will be a tough time in terms of the time ahead. They areer sales saying to us that they are going to reduce their inventory. Let us look at some of the breakdowns. First Quarter Sales crumbled by more than 17 , this is hugo boss. A loss of 14 million. The estimate was for a loss of just under 12 million. On the sales side, First Quarter remains above the estimate. 555 million. They are talking about the guidance. Getting ready for a pronounced decline in the Second Quarter. By 50 . Les him floating Second Quarter fx adjusted sales will drop by 50 . Will implode by 50 . Sales quarter fx adjusted will drop by 50 . Nejra fascinating set of numbers and if we get to. Organic revenue down 3. 6 . 1. 9 one billion, First Quarter sales. We are looking for the guidance. In terms of the 2020 view for beiersdorf, it looks like they have withdrawn their 2020 view as well. Europe is loosening coronavirus restrictions but the easing of lockdown measures could take weeks or months. Getting back to work might ease pressure on economies it is far from business as usual. Publishing about the economy. The comments likely market the end of potential caps. Other states are discussing potential measures. About to roll on the ecb easing program. It will decide whether the country will decide to participate in asset purchases. The case has been pending for a most have a decade but the coronavirus has given it more drama. The ecb says this could head off the current crisis. Global news, 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. Coming up, we are going to talk about oil. We have had a fiveday rally, the best series of gains in more than nine months. This is bloomberg. Manus this is bloomberg daybreak europe. Nejra cehic is alongside me in london. I cannot tell you what we talk about in the commercial break. [laughter] come a spring on the upside. Day five of a rally. Signs that the worst of the supply block might be over. As production cuts start to take effect with the opec plus deal. Into effectl come in theory. Here we go. A stock market rally. The longest run of gains in nine months in the oil market. Good morning. I think there is a lot of confusion regarding the oil market. To [indiscernible] after the beating it took last month, there are changes in allocation and contracts. I think in general that we are after the massive drop in equities. Obviously, we are seeing some suppliers cut production in oil. They are coming alongside that equation. Backdrop of aobal potential period of slow growth. Until we see normalization of the economy in the next few weeks or what the impact truly will be on the economy over the summer, i am not one of those people who think [indiscernible] int might possibly be true slow liquidity. I dont think it will merit that type of growth. I am a bit more bearish. Earlier you were saying to us that you see a disconnection between the real economy and the Financial Markets specifically at what he. We were saying that a short sell he madeith you because the same comment and the last 24 hours. If you were to see a sustained rise in the oil price and i know youre not convinced that will happen but with that be the point when you would become more convinced that we are going to be back in a sustained bull market with equities . With what you are seeing right now in oil, [indiscernible] they are normalizing. Normalizing. Is telling you right now that we are still in a phase where we do not have growth. The oil market effectively is before there it was 20th of april. I dont think we can say we have a growth story in oil. That negative numbers in oil. Oil is in the same place it was a month ago. Pivot back to the dollar figure . The whole story about equities and commodities running together you have a dollar b of and you say the dollar has further to drop. But apple, facebook, and Harley Davidson are warning about the strength of the dollar. Is there a risk of outright dollar intervention . It is a straightforward question and you have a minute. Go. At the end of the day, there is uncertainty. Despite massive intervention. Thee has been flight into dollar. The u. S. Aok at it, economy, the government, and the fed have been proactive in dealing with the crisis. If you look at it from a macro point of view, it is still very progressive towards an asset market. Money to the part that is active. Nejra great to have you with us this morning, saed abukarsh. Risk radar. Risk on. Grain on the screen. U. S. Futures are higher after a late turnaround. It looks like europe will also have a green day after closing lower yesterday. Futures indicating the yield could edge up on the 10 year. We talked about oil on its fifth day of gains. What is the reason for the risk on . On the easinging of lockdown to california . This is bloomberg. Nejra this is bloomberg daybreak europe. Debt from the pandemic has topped a quarter of a million but signs of optimism have emerged in the u. S. As new york reports of the fewest infections since march and california is starting to loosen its lockdown. Let us go to the east coast. Annmarie hordern is in new york with the latest. Let us start with what californias governor announced. The governor is talking about it being an optimistic day. The first u. S. State to shut down the economy and now we will see a loosening of these measures for friday. Retailers will be able to sell books and retail items but also curbside pickup. These are modest steps. Allowing shops and restaurants to resume normal operations. He says it is because the data has pointed to them being able to do this. California reported on monday 39 deaths. The lowest tally in three weeks. But the governor has come under immense pressure from protesters and local leaders as well especially with what happened last week with the Orange County beaches. A flock of citizens the wind to the heatwave. Local politicians shutting them down. Putting out will be the full california guidelines on thursday for some of these easing measures to happen on friday. Manus this is the very personification of an unsynchronized reopening of the Global Economy and the u. S. It just has never been done before. Good morning. Can we talk about the latest report that the white house is rejecting . It is a grim and devastating report but as you say, the white house is disclaiming it. First published in the New York Times but it really shows that over the next few months we could see an acceleration of the virus. In june, they are saying more than 200,000 new cases possible. What thear more than country is currently experiencing but it is unclear who produced this document. It was first obtained by the New York Times. The document carries the seal of the Homeland Security department. The Washington Post reported some of these projections coming from Johns Hopkins university. That University Said this is all preliminary. To helpoing to fema with scenario planning. And that it should not be used as a final one. Back to you. Time hasfortunately, gotten away. And and theinflows the revenue implosion and the words of warning from b. N. P. Paribas. Bloomberg daybreak Europe Market open is up next. There are times when our need to connect really matters. To keep customers and employees in the know. To keep business moving. Comcast business is prepared for times like these. Powered by the nations largest gigspeed network. To help give you the speed, reliability, and security you need. Tools to manage your business from any device, anywhere. And a team of experts here for you 24 7. Weve always believed in the power of working together. Thats why, when every connection counts. You can count on us. Anna good morning. Welcome to Bloomberg Markets uropean open. Im live in london alongside matt miller in berlin. Matt good morning. The markets say lift the lockdown. Europe and u. S. Futures rise. A number of economies move toward easing restrictions. Lets get your top headlines for you off the bloomberg terminal. Europes new normal