Little bit. We are seeing btps with a little but of a bid today. Euro with an offer. It is interesting that stocks are higher and the dollar is higher as well. Crude is also tracking a little bit higher. We are trading on the global 27. 95. K at european markets probably in a bit of a Holding Pattern right now. We are going to carry on the conversation on what is happening with some of these big global banks that are reporting numbers. James gorman of Morgan Stanley was the latest entry into the story today. We will be hearing from mr. Gorman very shortly. This is bloomberg. Welcome to our Bloomberg Television and radio audiences, live from new york city. Im erik schatzker. Morgan stanley reported earnings this morning, and it was mostly a strong performance, given the extraordinary period weve lived through, the volatility in march. With us for an interview is none other than the firms chairman and ceo, james gorman. Thank you for joining us. James thank you for having us. Erik you had the coronavirus. You spent a month at home, running and 80,000 person firm. How are you doing . James you know, im doing great. Thank you. I am completely recovered. To be perfectly clear, i had the virus, but i was one of the lucky ones. I was not hospitalized. My lungs did not get infected, which was a real blessing. Unpleasant, it certainly, and those could certainly, in those conditions, is manageable. My heart goes out to those who had out as fortunate or who Underlying Health issues, and the elderly who have struggled and have tragically passed away. I just wish everybody well who and wish them to stay hydrated, stay rested, and wish them the best. Erik i second those wishes. Ray dalio told me yesterday that this is much worse than the 2008 financial crisis. What kinds of base Case Assumptions are you making at this point for the recession and the recovery . James im not sure i agree with that. The economic impact, the gdp decline is obviously much worse, but it is obviously so specific, and it is built around the virus. What kind of world will we have when we have immunity from it, when we have the right testing . Theres so many unknowns now, whereas back in 2008, it was a fundamental collapse of the whole financial system. Had the system not been rescued, who knows what longterm damage might have been done to the economy . Tragicse are both truly situations. From our perspective, and running a company, theres a few things youve got to focus on. Weve got millions of clients trading trillions of dollars all over the world. Our plan has to work. We have to be able to facilitate clients doing that so they can manage their businesses. They have to have the ability to manage their own liquidity and funding and capital needs, and we play a Critical Role in that as the number one equity player in the world, etc. , with 90 of rns please at home of our employees at home, we had a most no issues. Testamentremarkable to the tech ops team. We voluntarily cut back on our buyback to zero. We thought it was best to preserve our capital to support clients in need. We are obviously doing everything through our communities and organizations like ours that have resources should be doing. Our teams are coordinated, given the remote isolation everyone is going through, and we spend and a normas amount of time communicating with them spend an enormous amount of time communicating with them, starting to think about what the future might look like. Erik it is clearly not as bad, or you dont think it is going to be as bad for Morgan Stanley, and perhaps the banking industry, as the 2008 financial crisis was. What about the broader economy . 5 Million People filed for first time Unemployment Benefits last week, 22 million since this began. How do you fathom or even model the kind of dislocation unemployment on that scale is going to produce . To the globalck Economic System is something we havent seen since the great depression. As you point out, it is far more dramatic than what occurred during the financial crisis. And in addition, we have this Massive Health crisis which is working its way around the world , with at times devastating consequences. You cant model this. What youve got to do is preserve your capital, understand the risk you are taking on as a business, and manage that with your whole team. Working together, we have daily operating committee calls, Risk Committee calls constantly. The whole team is organized around how we ensure that we are doing our job for our clients, and that Morgan Stanley remains stable during a period of incredible dislocation. Erik what will you need to see before it feels like the right time to go from a conservative posture to something with a little more Risk Appetite . James well, we are taking risk all day long. We are supporting our clients. By doing that, we are taking risk. We have a 900 million balance sheet, so it is not like we are not in the risk is in us the risk business. We are conservative coming to our risk profile and conservative managing through it. Firstly, the Health Crisis has to get resolved. You have to see the flattening of the curve in the shape of the curve change in several countries around the world. We have started to see that in taiwan and korea, in singapore, germany at looks like. But we need to see that, particularly in the u. S. Just look at what has gone on in new york city. Number one, the Health Crisis has to be dealt with. Morer two, you have to see of these poor folks have been laid off all around the world. Look at the number you referenced in the u. S. This morning, 5. 3 million unemployment claims. These folks have to get back to work. All of the thousands of Small Businesses. When you start to see that, then you will start to see confidence creeping back in, but it will be slow. This is not going to be a rapid turnaround. Erik it took almost six months for the market to hit bottom after the lehman weekend. We are only six weeks into this crisis, and already we have seen a powerful rebound. What are the chances you think the market has already hit the bottom of this crisis . James oh boy. [laughter] that is a tough question. My gut is that the equities markets, absent a devastating shift in the health situation, the equities markets have bottomed. That doesnt mean we wont retest those bottoms. We could easily do that. But the volatility you are seeing in the markets right now, 2 to 4 a day, it was 6 to 10 a day a month ago. Fixed income markets, aided by the help of the central markets, have stabilized. Much more liquidity in the system. Is that the markets were at their highest point of instability three or four weeks ago. That could be retested. I think it is unlikely from a liquidity perspective to be retested, but we live in an extremely uncertain world for the next few months. But every day there is progress in a country, every day you see declining rates of infection, is a very positive day to getting the world back on its feet. Erik hedges help your firm offset some of its credit losses in the First Quarter. How hedged is Morgan Stanley at this point, and what kinds of protection have been put on . Going to go im not into details about how weve hedged the institution, but needless to say, it would be imprudent not to have done that. It mitigated our losses by approximately 1 3 across our trading businesses. This is something that, if youre in this business when, frankly, nobody can tell me what the market will do tomorrow, anybody who thinks they know what it is going to do over the next several months is dreaming. So you have to be conservative and mitigate your downside risk. Erik even though those hedges are much more expensive to put on now than they were, say, in january or february. James sure. Thats why you by insurance for your house, particularly if you live in a flood zone. Erik Morgan Stanleys institutional clients drew down billions of dollars in revolving credit lines over the course of the First Quarter, and as we learned today, theres billions more they can draw. What were those conversations like, particularly with those clients who were not drawing down because they needed the money, but because they were either thinking himself prudent, fearful, or even panicking . James i had some of those. The ceos i talked to, theyve got to do weston theyve got to do whats in their best interest. They are entitled to draw them down. Obviously not all of them wanted to do that, but theyve got to operate in what is in their best interest, and that is what a number of institutions did. Do i the grants that . Not at all do i begrudge that . Not at all. That is what we are in the business of doing for our clients. Erik 80,000 employees are working from home, a staggering figure, when we have seen repeated across the industry, and many industries, for that matter. It is amazing, though, that it has come, by your admission, with no loss of capability. What i would like to know is how does that change the way you think about the way this firm operates in the future . James you know, weve just started, and i guess it is a good sign that we are starting to talk about the future. The last couple of operating committee calls have been focused in part on what the future might look like, and we are starting to sort of play out what that could be. Howrly, weve figured out to operate with much less real estate, number one. Do i think everybody is going to be working from home . No, i think the mentoring, the connections, the team bonding, the brainstorming, the creativity that comes from being in groups of individuals, likeminded and not likeminded, that is how a Great Organization drives. But can i see a future where part of every week for a lot of our employees will be at home . Absolutely. It saves on commuting time, gives them more capacity in that regard. People have been functioning extremely well. It is a grand test. Somebody said to me the other day, if you had asked us in january to tell all our employees as a test run, 90 of them to go work from home, and lets see what happens, nobody would have taken that risk. You would think the whole place can stop. If we were forced to take this test, and guess what . We came out the other side of it. So that tells you an enormous amount about where people need to be physically, not just all the time, but some of the time. Im still a huge fan of mentoring and bonding and having teams together, and the creative surges that come from having people working together. Conclusion a natural that a firm like Morgan Stanley, and perhaps other firms in your industry, are not going to need as much of a footprint in places like manhattan, london, hong kong . And thats a thing about the character of this industry is going to change permanently as a result . James no, i dont think that. I will take the two parts of the question. I think we will have less footprint. I think that is highly likely. Weve proven we can operate with effectively no footprint. On the other hand, as i said, i want most people in the office most of the time, so no, i dont think the character of the industry will change as a result of that. I think what has been informally done with the number of employees migrating to a day at home will become, over time, much more of a formal structure that we probably evolved to. Erik on behalf of Bloomberg Television viewers and Bloomberg Radio listeners worldwide, i want to thank you very much. James gorman, ceo of Morgan Stanley. This is bloomberg. Guy from london, im guy johnson, with vonnie quinn in new york. This is bloomberg markets. A lot of data out earlier on. Markets seem to be largely ignoring it. Abigail doolittle, over to you. Abigail certainly an interesting market day so far. If we take a look at the dow, you are going to see that index is sharply lower, while the s p 500 down a little bit less. The dow down about 1 . The nasdaq, however, outperforming. Up 0. 3 . The dow transports down. 1 down 2. 1 . Investors continue to digest the jobless claims data weve had over the last three weeks, the normandy of that number, the Economic Data yesterday. It feels like it could be an inflection point. However, the engine that has been keeping this really going lately, the faang stocks, and especially amazon. Really incredible, hitting another alltime high, the best four days going back to 2016. It really interesting nuance to make of amazon with a climbing. Investors assuming the company will be very well with the global lockdown. On the other hand, if that is the case, it may suggest that the economy could have a longer time getting restarted. Keep an eye on those faangs because if they lose steam, it could be a problem for the markets. Finally, Morgan Stanley. Erik schatzker was talking to james gorman, ceo. That stock has been down not just today, but recently, on those results. Over the last four days, down 9. 6 . Big trading come but it is not clear whether that is going to last. Vonnie thank you for that. The grim Economic Data continuing to really flood in now. Jobless claims hitting 5. 2 million last week. The philly fed index nose diving, and Housing Starts plunging. Lets bring in Bloomberg International economics and policy correspondent michael mckee. Moving on what james gorman of Morgan Stanley just said, a circumstance that no one could have protected and no one would have wished for has forced firms to take decisions that they wouldnt otherwise have, but they have really become success stories. Example, Morgan Stanley realizes it doesnt need all of the real estate it has. Michael i thought that was a fascinating comment, and it points to the discussions that will come out of this. How do we redesign the economy for new realities . Not just the fact that maybe we dont want to all sit next to each other in cubicles anymore, but do we need to . Would people be more productive having some time at home . That is going to be something everybody is going to be looking to. But mr. Gorman also noted the chart there, that weve had an enormous number of jobless claims. 5,245,000. 22,034,000 in the last four weeks, and that almost completely wipes out all of the job gains of the last 10 years. That is the thing he was looking to first, in terms of restarting the economy. Youve got to get the Health Problems solved. Nothing happens until you get that solved. Once that is solved, it is going to be a very slow ramp up, and he wont see the economy getting back to anything close to what it was like until all those people who lost their jobs have been absorbed back into the labor force. Guy can i just stay with the real estate theme . Housing data today was weak, but you can kind of understand why. A lot of sites have been shut down, a lot of people cant move houses right now, as a result of which, youre going to see week data. The Housing Market has been a strong part of the fed transmission data. But i am also aware of the fact that america is short of housing right now. Once we see a bounce back, once people start to get back into the labor market, we are going to see those sites reopen and the housing data is going to bounceback quite strongly. Mi reading that correctly . Michael i thick you are. I was talking with a builder who said the idea that housing is going to remain depressed is probably not true because while you may be reluctant to go to the movies or go to a restaurant where you are all crowded in, you may have been saving for some time to buy a house, or you may be in the process of buying a house and it has simply been interrupted. It is a big, onetime purchase. You will probably go ahead with that. It is just going to be shifted later into time. With Interest Rates as low as they are, and they will stay this way for a very long time, you are not going to get anything cheaper, so you might as well continue with that. This isnt the normal kind of stimulus the fed looks to come about hopefully it helps. Hopefully if real estate picks up quickly, people buy furniture and other furnishings for the house, and we do see that ad into the economyd that add into the economy. Vonnie the philly fed index took a nosedive as well. At what point is it all priced into the market . Michael that is a good question. We havent seen a major reaction in the markets. We saw one yesterday. The bad retail Sales Numbers was a bit of a surprise because you would think it had all been priced in. On the other hand, we have the president holding out the possibility of a News Conference today to announce his plans for reopening the economy. He doesnt get to do it, but is somebody talking about it like that . Maybe giving the markets some hope that these numbers are temporary. Wasan noted that, that this as fast a stop as we had ever seen, and deeper a plunge as we have ever seen, since the great depression. But it happened so quickly that hopefully, we get out of this period of medically induced coma very quickly. Losing ground more quickly than we do in a normal recession. Ever, thank,ee, as indeed. We are going to carry on the conversation when it comes to big banks. We are going to dig into the numbers with devon ryan, j p. M. Securities senior analyst. That conversation is coming up. This is bloomberg. Awesome internet. Its more than just fast. It keeps all your devices running smoothly. With builtin security that protects your kids. No matter what theyre up to. It protects your info. And gives you 24 7 peace of mind. That if its connected, its protected. Even that that petcamera thingy. [ whines ] can your internet do that . Xfinity xfi can because its. Simple, easy, awesome. [ barking ] the gdpconomic impact, decline is obviously much worse, but it is so specific and built around the virus. What kind of world will we have when we have immunity from it, when we have the right testing . There are so many unknowns now, whereas back in 2008, it was a fundamental collapse of the whole financial system, and had the system not been rescued, then who knows what longterm damage might have been to the economies . Morgan stanley Ceo James Gorman discussing the impact of the virus pandemic on firstquarter earnings. Lets get more details on what is happening with other banks as well. Going us now with some analysis, devon ryan, Jmp Securities senior analyst. He has a market outperform rating for both Morgan Stanley and goldman sachs. U. S. Banks are holding up right now. My question is, how sustainable is that . Devin thanks for having me on. I think theres a couple of things going on here. You have the First Quarter extreme backdrop in asset prius asset prices. This steep drop happened, both institutional balance sheets, but also retail balance sheets. I think that contributed to an extreme move in asset prices. That negatively affected results quite a bit, but on the other that, you saw great trading activity from all of the banks, and i think that shows some of the natural hedge in the Business Model. This is very different today than what we would have seen 10 were ago when firms leveraged substantially more, had riskier islands on the balance sheet, didnt have the capital cushions they have today. I think the Banking System is performing quite well. The quarter was extreme. Theres going to be some lingering negative effects. Equity markets are still down point to percent, Interest Rates are low, and we think will remain low. That creates headwind on the other side. You may not have the same degree goingk to market issues forward in the First Quarter, and that is one of the things that drove result as low as they were in the quarter. But all things considered, i think the banks did pretty well. Goldman yesterday, Morgan Stanley today, and all of the other large banks that have reported. Guy we are just seeing a headline saying the Small Business loan program is now out of money, which is certainly something that d. C. Needs to get around to fixing pretty quickly. What do we know about, in aggregate, what credit losses are now going to look like . Do you think some of those credit numbers are going to have to go higher . Devin credit numbers are going to go higher, without a doubt. You have both the covid, what is happening in the Energy Complex as well, a number of highly with risksompanies from a credit perspective. Heavily to quite reflect the backdrop, but there were some accounting changes as well that affected the provisions. We will probably have more elevated provisions on a go forward basis, something that companies are talking about, and you really have to dive into the scenarios that companies are applying. It is all a bit subjective, but they are going loan by loan. So there will be higher provisions. The good news is the banks have phenomenal capital positions, so they are going to whether that quite well. I think theres bigger, questions around how long it takes theres bigger economic questions around how long it takes to pull out of this. There should be a recovery, but are we getting back to where we came from . Maybe not. That could lead to more elevated credit than we have seen for some period of time. If you look at the Banking System today versus a decade ago, such a different position. The natural hedges in the model that you are seeing right now just around businesses like trading or when you get a flight to safety, essentially your clients move more money to cash. He saw huge increases in deposit balances during the quarter. That provides mitigation to some of the Net Interest Income issues and some of the credit issues that will likely continue to come here. Vonnie i just want to reiterate that the Small Business loan program has run out of funds. Congress obviously is stalled. The president does want to add another 250 billion to the initial 349 billion. We knew yesterday that way over one million applications had been approved since the beginning of the program, which was april 3, but obviously, a lot more need to be improved at a lot more are looking for funding. What can banks do to help the economy get back on track . Theres so many fed programs out. Theres this sba program that benefits banks too, honestly. Get your tellers on the computers. Get these applications processed. Are the banks working as hard as they can . Devin i think they are. If you look at all the steps they are ticking, both in terms of normal business to support their clients, i think it has been pretty tremendous over the last month and a half. The government as well as taking unprecedented steps to try to lessen the blow and step in. Theres been a pretty coordinated effort between government, the fed, and the banks to really try to step in and support clients under the can, andwhere they business lending is one example. Theres a number of other examples, if you look through earnings. Companies have been detailing what they are doing for customers, but also the communities with this. They are really trying to put themselves in the best position here. To really help customers and communities in this really challenging time. I think youre seeing that across the organizations, both in what you saw on the First Quarter, but i think theres a lot more to come as well. And to your point, it really is in their best interest as well. Theres a number of motivations here, but i think it is in the companys best the best interest to get here,onomys footing back to have companies repay loans and have a new paycheck coming in. Vonnie i know you were listening to james gorman on Bloomberg Television a few moments ago. Did you get the feeling he might try to renegotiate some leases . You get the feeling that the bank can almost 100 work without real estate at this point. Devin it is an interesting question because i think this working from home, essentially being forced into that position, has been so much smoother than probably any company across the economy was thinking, just how abrupt it was. Banks are no exception. For a number of these companies, theres going to be questions around real estate footprints andstaffing, travel budgets entertainment. There may be room to change the frameworks a bit, and that could lead to some expense savings, but just how people are doing business and how smooth it has been in this kind of Virtual World i think could have a number of lasting impact. Think companies are more focused on serving their clients today and making sure that employees are healthy and able to function remotely, but i think there will be a lot of deep thought coming out of this around opportunities for the Banking System to maybe be more efficient and leverage the Technology Even more. Vonnie we have to leave it there. Thank you so much for your time today. That is devin ryan, Jmp Securities senior analyst. Coming up in the next hour, we continue the conversation about the Global Economic outlook and get the prescriptions from just alina georgieva from kristalina georgieva, the imf managing director. That is coming up at 11 00. This is bloomberg. Guy this is bloomberg markets. In the next hour we will be speaking to the airbus ceo, guillaume faury. This is bloomberg. York, imve from new vonnie quinn, along with guy johnson in london. This is bloomberg markets. Time for our stock of the hour. Heres dave wilson. Dave here to talk about bank of new york mellon. This is what you would call a trust bank. They are all about keeping up securities, processing trades, that sort of thing. Comes fromr revenue what they call investment services. Analysts were expecting revenue to be down in the first, as well as earnings. Bny mellon delivered positive surprises on both fronts. Profit eating projections and signals coming out ahead as well. What benefited bank of new york mellon was all of the volatility in markets last month from all of the trading that went along with that. They talked about, among other things on their conference call, u. S. Trade volume was up 50 last month from the pace in january and february, and the amount of global settlement of trades they did was up 40 in that same period. But that altogether, and they had a 10 increase in fee revenue for the quarter. That benefited them at a time when net interest revenue was falling because Interest Rates were down. As opposed to other banks that have had to set aside billions of dollars for potential loan losses down the road, they only had to make a loan loss provision of 169 million. They are clearly in a much better position than the biggest u. S. Banks when it comes to being able to deal with what is ahead as a result of the coronavirus. How the talk about assets that they have either under custody or administration, that is really the trust bank ,ide, rose 2 on the quarter while their Investment Management side, their other ,ain business assets, were down a lot of that tied to losses coming out of the stock market. You put it altogether, and it is a set of results that people werent anticipating, and you see the shares take off as a result of that. Bank of new york mellon has been up as much as 9 in todays trading, one of todays top performers in the s p 500. Guy and it is interesting when so many other banks are trading lowers today. Thanks very much indeed. Dave wilson with our stock of the hour. The German Government has unveiled a 30 billion euro backstop as commercial Credit Insurance to keep trade flowing and prevent bankruptcies. The ceo of europes largest z said thelian industry is still set for massive losses. The coronavirus has hit our industry like a meteoroid impact. It is really a systemic impact on the economy. And we are the world market leader. The Business Model normally would suggest that we cut our 400 billion for the industry alone, and that would create a domino effect that would lead to increase in insolvency. So the government has clearly learned from the 2008 and 2009 crises. , we leader in the industry set up a program that prohibits these behaviors from occurring. It is a very important measure the government has taken. I can only congratulate them because it will help us to stabilize, particularly mall and meet stabilize particularly small and mediumsized companies. Matt miller here in berlin. Wouldnt you be able to do that even without this . Dont you have the resources . Or is the scale of defaults so big that allie ons that allianz needs to government to step in with a backstop . Actually, we dont need that. It is important to understand that the way the credit industry works and Insurance Industry works is allowing us to manage risk their way we really want to come a particularly allianz. The problem is the following. You have seen in the Capital Markets over the last few weeks that people will then behave in a very procyclical way. For example, if we cut exposure lines, people will further reduce trade, and that may lead to insolvencies that we would not cover, so the economic effect would be highly detrimental, but in the end would be safe. That is unfortunately an outcome of the industry Business Model, and we have had, learning from the 2008 crisis, and told the government that if you dont want a domino effect, there needs to be a Publicprivate Partnership to make this thing happen. In fact, it is not a protection of our balance sheet. What we are doing is extending lack of credit that we would normally not hold. So this makes sure that any decisions that are made around trade financing that dont make things worse than they already are. Does the insurance sector need support that goes further than this . Is there an area of the Insurance Industry or perhaps another geography where you would like to see something similar to what is happening to germany . We wouldonally believe actually need a solution like this on the european level. The french government has also enacted something, but it is much more limited. There are areas, and we will talk about it once we are through with the coronavirus shortterm impact, because this is a massive earthquake i would compare to a meteoroid impact. There are certain covers that we have today in germany and other that cannot be insured with normal policy wordings. Where you need an industry solution with Publicprivate Partnership. We need to look across a number of sectors and exposures and say, how can we make sure we cover better the needs of society when you have systemic effects . Systemic risk is not something the Insurance Industry can ensure. We need to rely on diversification in the portfolio. Just imagine that we would not have one in every 10 cars having an accident every year, but everybody having an accident, then modern insurance would become unaffordable. Pandemic is a systemic event that does not have diversifications. For the industry cannot model, it cannot really work. To your question, we do not have is a Company Large exposures, and i dont know about any others. Losses for the industry, and my personal opinion, are going to be massive. Theres a lot of debate insurers are putting up. I can tell you that business interruption, travel, media and entertainment coverage, there will still be huge losses for the industry coming. It just takes a while for those to materialize. 2020 is not going to be a record earnings year for the insurance. Vonnie that was the ceo of allianz. Lets go to the latest headlines surrounding the coronavirus. For that we will get to viviana hurtado. Viviana the imf calling it the Great Lockdown global recession, and we are seeing more fallout in the economy. Here in the u. S. Last week, about 5. 2 5 million americans filing jobless claims. The total, 22 million jobs vanishing in the month of the lockdown. World leaders are balancing a gradual reopening of their economies with containment of the spread of covid19. In the u. K. , officials saw signs it may be past the worst as total coronavirus cases crossed the 100,000 mark, and it is expected to extend its lockdown. Germany and spain cases climbing. Spain is planning to keep most of the restriction measures in place. In asia, there are pockets of new waves of infection. In japan, prime ministers shinzo abe declaring a state of emergency because the rate of infection is spreading. Singapore reporting its highest daily entries daily increase in cases. Business leaders are saying widespread testing is necessary to that end. Jeff bezos telling amazon shareholders in a letter that it is developing covid19 testing for a First Step Towards regular testing of its employees worldwide. President trump says he will unveil guidelines to relax stay rules thursday. He is pointing to signs that the is plateauing in part of the country. Guy still ahead, the Economic Data out of the United States, none of it is good. That is next. This is bloomberg. Guy from london, im guy johnson, with vonnie quinn in new york. This is bloomberg markets. Another round of disappointing data out of the United States today. Lets get to what that means for u. S. Equities. Lets welcome bill baruch of Blue Line Futures into the conversation. More disappointing data, but i guess we probably anticipated much of it. The Market Reaction broadly kind of neutral. Nevertheless, the u. S. Curve over the last few days has continued to flatten. The message coming from the rates market is that things are not ok, yet equity markets arent saying that. What is your read of the data, and of how that is being priced into different markets . Bill theres two things here that have stood out the most to me. Higher in had the rip equity markets last week. Treasuries moved lower, but it is very shallow. Looking at the 30 year bond, it was a very shallow touch lower, and that set up for the next leg higher developing right now in the 30 year bond, which is going to flatten the curve. I like treasuries. I like the 30. I am long tens and 30 through a number of strategies we use. But additionally, you look at the market broadly, it is only a handful of stocks pushing equities higher. It is amazon, netflix, some health care. Amazon is just amazing, seeing what that stock has been able to do. But the entire market, the s p 500 will not be able to track just amazon. Theres a signal of weakness to come here in equity markets, and i would like the 30 year to leg up one more time. Guy aside from the 30 year, where do you see the best risk reward right now . Bill in the treasury curve, this morning guy more broadly. Not just in the treasury curve. More broadly across assets. Bill well, actually let the treasury curve. I like being long the 30. Our Program Actually got long the 10 year today through an option strategy. I think there is some upside here. In the immediate term as well as the intermediate term. Additionally, if you have been long equities, there are places to reduce some risk. I thicket a smart to reduce some risk at these elevated levels i think it is smart to reduce some risk at these outdated levels. Crude is also on my radar. You have options expirations in may. Interest inngth has keeping a floor in the may contract. What i am looking for is june to close that spread. . 50. S weaker, down about i am looking for a target to the downside in june about 23 50 cents for june oil contracts. Guy opec says it sees demand for and 30 years. We thank you for your time. Vonnie we have a great our coming up. We are counting down to the european close, of course. I will be speaking to the managing director of the imf as the World Bank Spring meeting takes place in washington, d. C. , but of course, they are remote these days. And you will be speaking with the airbus ceo, guillaume faury, coming up at 11 30 p. M. Eastern 11 30 a. M. Eastern. We will get a very broad look at the Global Economy from the institutional to the company side. This is bloomberg. Guy from london, im guy johnson, with vonnie quinn in new york. We are counting you down to the european close on bloomberg markets. European markets midrange. Weve been in a very tight range relative to the recent swings we have been seeing. We are up around 0. 6 . That is tiny compared to some of the huge swings. We are seeing a tightening of btpbundund the spread. The euro is on offer, the dollar catching a bid. Crude a little lower, down by 0. 8 . Opec warning of dramatic demand destruction. Vonnie lets take a look at where we are in the u. S. Because it was a very next market earlier on. We seem to have at least changed our tune when it comes to the s p 500, now up 0. 3 . The nasdaq is up 1. 25