Tom i would really suggest oil is important, but complete we secondary to the implosion that we saw yesterday and american jobs data. And the french data not much better. Right now, for global wall street, it is about calibrating the slow down and the nonrecovery out in the third quarter. And also, its the follow on from the rents that werent paid. There were massive upsets this morning. Francine i dont disagree. But oil can make things worse. Lets get straight to uber first word news in new york city with viviana hurtado. Viviana we do begin with oil. Opec putting together a Virtual Meeting of its members as President Donald Trump calls for a court need cut to end the historic crash in crude prices. Two delegates telling bloomberg the meeting will be held on monday. Saudi arabia insists it will only cut if others do. This includes the u. S. Of thetoric streak economy adding jobs for one under 13 months is probably ending as tom was mentioning. The march jobs report coming out at 8 30 a. M. New york time, economists surveyed it last month, 100,000 jobs lost due to the coronavirus. The actual situation is likely to be worse. Employers were surveyed before the heavy layoffs. Now to a grim milestone. The coronavirus has infected one Million People worldwide and that is after the emergence in china. The number of infections is much higher because many countries are unable or unwilling to conduct testing. The death toll is more than 53,000. Local covid19 infections rise. The secretary. , mac hancock pledges testing for 100,000 people a day. The government being criticized for acting too late to battle the pandemic. He just emerged from isolation himself after falling sick with the virus. Thanl news powered by more 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. This is bloomberg. Viviana, thanks so much. The data was jumbled today. Shops recalibrate their economic calls. Oil is a big deal. , pulling back on oil. What i really underscore, francine, is that through all of resilient dollar and even a strong dollar particularly against hypersensitive em currencies. Francine we have to spend a lot more time looking at high sensitive em currencies because the Health System is not as up to scratch as it is here. The impact could be that much bigger. Stocks are dipping with u. S. Futures. Investors figuring out the latest corporate and economic turmoil caused by the pandemic. The dollar strengthening. I would point to march payrolls as the one thing that we really need to watch. They are expected to decline for the First Time Since 2010. Data is unlikely and showing the full extent of the impact. It lets get to paul donovan from ubs wealth management, a global chief economist. How ugly will the Employment Situation be in the u. S. . With that not start is a really difficult why not start with an easy question, francine . That is a really difficult question. I believe it will be above european unemployment for a few months. What policy has done in europe is generally to try to protect jobs, prevent unemployment. Whereas the buyers of u. S. Policy until very recently has more being focused on dealing with the consequences of unemployment. And we are seeing that come through in these numbers. Unemploymentnd 15 is entirely realistic and it could be higher than that as we go through the two or three months of lockdown and the immediate aftermath. Francine how can we measure the full extent of how bad it will actually be . People are getting paid and furloughed, they can keep afloat. If they can, we will have solvency problems. The criticals difference, i think, between europe and the state so far. It europe is generally furloughing people. You may not get full pay on furlough. You may not get much money at all. But what you do have is the knowledge that your job will be there for you when the government changes policy. When the government starts to encourage growth again. In the United States, i think thee is a risk that some of unemployment is caused by business is failing and you dont have that certainty that you will have a job at the end. The saving rate will be higher. You will be reluctant to spend throughout the downturn and unable to spend as we go into the recovery phase. The optimistic spin on initial jobless claims is that the numbers have been going up so with a sort of furlough in an american accent. Companies have been firing early and aggressively to make sure the Company Still survives. The company that fires you in march might hire you in may again. That is still pretty economically damaging, but less damaging than Companies Failing and people losing jobs as a result. You and ubse learning with your particular bond operation . What have you learned about the followed of furloughs and firings over to a lack of rent being paid and what we have seen in the last 48 hours, the beginning of the implosion of the Mortgage Market. What do you observe this morning about the immediacy of the collapse in trust . Again, different policies in europe then the states. It has been a move toward mortgage holidays. People in difficult situations have been given a three month to six month holiday. If you are given a holiday, thats fine. Your mortgage now lasts another six months. We just pretend the next six months never happened and off we go again as normal. Worksas very well that very well with a furlough. And of course, you do have that risk in regards to rent and in regards to mortgage payments. The number of people losing their jobs is so dramatic and can be an issue. Shouldnt panic, necessarily, about a very sharp rise now. On, that is carries where it gets really serious. Tom can you say that we will mimic the mortgage holiday process of europe . That is primarily a political decision. In my view, it is fairly logical. Theurope, the cost of mortgage holiday was born by the banking system. In america, if you had a formede holiday, that is by a larger group of people. Ofks can whether the cost select mortgage holidays and on a casebycase basis. When youe complicated have a Mortgage Market in the United States. I am sure with enough administration resources, you could come up with a solution. But it is more complicated to do in america. Tom well said. Morning in america, this is front and center, percolating all across new york and wall street. This complete collapse of new york pricing and certain etfs and other indicators like that. I am sure this will be a topic for jon ferro as he speaks to lawrence kudlow. Thats after the jobs report. Of course, mr. Kudlow is leaving the white house with a number of policy prescriptions including the fixation of saudi arabia. Early front and center after the jobs report is the stark inability of people to keep their jobs. Please stay with us. This is bloomberg. Francine this is bloomberg surveillance. Tom and francine from london and new york. We are talking a lot about the u. S. , some of the figures that we may see a little bit later on in terms of jobless claims. We will get back to paul donovan and ubs management. I wanted to ask about europe. There is so much fight between italy and some of the countries that corona has hit. Can we talk about Debt Forgiveness or will we see italy in a Bailout Program once this is over . That it isnt think the only way. I think there are institutional mechanisms that with a bit of tweeting can possibly help provide common assistance. We have seen the commission talking about raising calls as well including the markets that are not quite corona bonds but led by the European Commission with the government guarantee. I dont think we need to fixate on corona bonds. I think we need to focus on the Financial Assistance across the euro area in the way we have already seen europe come together with common medical assistance and common programs for purchasing medical equipment. Of cooperation is there in the european union. I think that is clear. It is perhaps not quite so easy to engineer on the fiscal side. I think there is a recognition that there is a crisis that we can manage collectively. Francine what is your take on splitting Government Debt . It seems politically insurmountable at the moment, but i see a number of research, including City Research that says this could be a way to make sure we are dealing with the crisis and at the same time, not putting the economy on its feet in five or 10 years. We have to get some sense of perspective here. The debt increases we are are notabout necessarily quite as alarming as some of the debt increases that we saw back in 2008. One of the reasons for that is even though this is a horrific crisis in humanitarian terms and in terms of the Economic Impact, it is also a crisis with a finite time limit. It does not create an openended obligation. And a lot of the damage, once the damage is done, within a couple of courses, you can to a more normal environment. Italy, for example, having 150 gdp ratio, it is a burden. Is a disaster for italy. Japan has it debt to gdp ratio of 100 and might be domestically financed like italy. It is not a problem. A 250k. In 1945 had percent gdp ratio. And again, managing that with no particular problem. Im not necessarily looking for this to be a debt crisis in the way that 2008 was. I think there is an argument for sharing the burden, but im not convinced that we need to be panicked about this level. Francine Paul Donovan Tom paul donovan, what is the to do list for the Prime Minister . Guest getting better, one hopes. The u. K. In terms of the Economic Policy response, i think has been pretty effective. With the possible accusation of undue patriotism, the uks economic response was a little chaotic but one of the most effective in going very early. Tom that would be true. Guest the problem is that the u. K. Government has been increasingly criticized for the health care response. The focus is testing. Shift awayre is a from the economic focus. There will still be a lot of attention to make sure implementation of policy happens quickly. That is still going to be a priority. But i think that we probably move instead to more focus on the economic side and onto the medical side, making sure ventilators, protective equipment, the nhs is running effectively. Tom do you assume dollar resiliency . Guest i dont. Timing partly because of of the second phase of this, the u. S. May be lagging behind. The u. S. May have higher on employment then europe for some time. Europe yment then than europe for some time. None of that necessarily lends itself to dollar strength. Once you go beyond the liquidity that initially comes in. And, of course, there are two other factors. Reducing dollar demand. The price of oil. And regardless of what happens on monday, i rather suspect that we will not see a 35 million or 45 million barrel reduction in oil. Regardless of where we are with trade negotiations and everything else, global trade is not going to go back to where it was very quickly. Global trade is dollar funded. I think it would be wrong to assume beyond the liquidity demand that the dollar is able to hold on to gains. Francine what action should ,pecplus with the u. S. Take paul . If there is underinvestment, does it shoot up to insane levels . Guest this is quite a complicated question. The price of oil in absolute terms is neutral for the economy because all the change in the price of oil does is transfer money between oil buyers and oil sellers. High oil price, sellers get lots of cash. Low oil price, they dont get so much. Oil buyers are better off. The Economic Impact of this is complex. But what it is for the moment is disruptive. Frankly, i could do with a little bit less disruption in my life. The disruption and the uncertainty caused by the oil price and the oil sector in terms of equities and the uncertainty around investment, all of that is frankly unwelcome. The best thing i think opec could do is give a degree of certainty about where the price is going to be. And calm the markets in that sense. And whether the price is high or low, the certainty is the more important thing. Do we see a surge in investment in the future . Im not convinced by that. I do think that the sustainability shift in the Global Economy has duration. I think it lasts through this crisis. And if that is the case, then i think the move away from Oil Dependency which has been very rapid over the last 10 years, will probably continue. Focus is still going to be on Sustainable Investment in Energy Rather than necessarily ramping up investment in oil in the future. Francine thank you so much. Always valuable, paul donovan. If you have bloomberg, check out the function tv. You can watch all of our interviews live. Click on our charts and interact with us directly. Just go to tv. This is bloomberg. Francine viviana you are watching bloomberg surveillance. We begin with shares of tesla. Today, they are surging. First Quarter Sales came in better than expected. At last month, elon musk introduced tesla deliveries. That came at a time when authorities began urging future car buyers to stay home. Now to apples u. S. Retail stores. They will stay closed and work from home procedures will stay in place. That will be until early may. In march, outside of china, taiwan, and hong kong, apple closed 458 stores. That is your Bloomberg Business flash. Francine and tom. Tom i am that you mentioned the apple store. It really extraordinary to see. See companies extend out through april and touching into may as well. On the data front, decidedly mixed. Oil is riled by an opecplus meeting that you will see earlier later today. Securities is grim and emerging markets are being watched is well with the resilient dollar. Good to hear paul donovan give us a brief on the dollar. And the dollar out into the future. We will give you the data up to the jobs report this morning. It will be much, much more information today. Jobs and sales with florence kudlow with jon ferro in the 9 00 hour. Stay with us. This is bloomberg. Theres no place like home. Especially when xfinity has you covered with fast, reliable internet. With advanced security to help keep you secure online. And with the most tv shows, movies and streaming apps all in one place. With simple Digital Tools you can get the help you need or even trouble shoot your services on your own. Download the xfinity my account app or just say help into your xfinity voice remote. We are working to make things a little easier on everyone. Download the xfinity my account app today. The lockdown is more or less producing 3 negative growth obviously after the lockdown will finish, the rebound will be immediate. Tom bloomberg surveillance, good morning, everyone. Tom keene in new york, Francine Lacqua in london. David westin yesterday speaking with the Vice President of the United States. This is extremely fluid for our global audience, and i cannot convey how the messaging out of washington whether the executive branch canegislative change over three or four hours, so even though this is a current comment by the Vice President it is already dated. David, i can tell you, is that because of the Public Private partnership we forged with these vast commercial labs that your listeners know well, labcorp, testingoche, we are over 100,000 americans a day, but a very significant breakthrough happened this weekend. Speed,moving with record the fda approved Abbott Laboratoriess pointofcare test that people can have administered at their doctors office. We are in the process of identifying thousands of Abbot Laboratory machines around the making sure we are distributing those not just to areas seeing an impact today, but we want to distribute those as Abbott Laboratories is making about 50,000 tests a day now. We want to distribute those two areas where we can do what you had so had implied, surveillance testing that will allow states that do not have a significant outbreak to be forewarned and forearmed, and to do Contract Tracing to limit the spread of the coronavirus. The answer to the other part of your question, we literally are tracking every single day the number of cases coming out, where they are coming out. Already received a briefing of county by county, state by state analysis and that is informing our coordination not only with the Strategic National stockpile, fema, but with Health Care Distributors across the country about we are focusing and sourcing everything from personal protective equipment to all the supplies healthcare workers need. We are focusing it where the outbreaks are and working closely with governors to support their requests for personal protective equipment and field hospitals, and will continue to do that aroundtheclock. lets talk about personal protective equipment and ventilators. Coordinatingyour and monitoring, is there consideration being given to centralizing . Is there a thought we should have a Central Location under you at the task force to decide where they go . Thehen the president signed National Disaster declaration a femaeeks ago, he stood up as the lead coordinator of our nations response. Closely been working through its regional administrators and governors to process requests not just from the national stockpile, but we are working with distributors around the country and directing them in many cases where we need that personal protective equipment to go. We established what the president has called an air bridge, about 51 flights from the world bringing in supplies for healthcare workers. We were wheels down sunday at ,fk, monday at your cargo landing in miami last night, and those flights will continue to come in literally aroundtheclock. We are taking 90 of those resources and deploying them through distributors to go directly to the point of the are where hospital workers asking for and requesting personal protective equipment. Useit is a way that we can the strength of the private sectors Distribution System and direction of our Logistics Team at fema to meet this moment, and as we track the initial outbreak was the seattle area, washington state, then california, and now the epicenter is the Greater New York city area. We are working with distributors to bring the supplies in, to increase production at home, and directing them to where they are needed most. That was francine the u. S. Vice president mike pence speaking to david westin yesterday. The new coronavirus has infected more than one Million People worldwide. As repercussions hit further reaches of the economy, Alastair Campbell argues Prime Minister johnson to take a cue from new york Governor Cuomo, saying in times of crises, people look to leaders for constant strength and for kong, composed, calm, us polite. Joining us is Alastair Campbell. We heard from matt hancock he is trying to test 100,000 people a day, more than anyone in europe. Are they catching up . Alastair they are trying to, but my worry about yesterday is it is just another case of overpromising and under delivering. One of the most important principles of communication in a crisis is not to overpromise, is to be brutally frank about the problems. That is why ive been so admiring and respectful of the way Governor Cuomo has been communicating. Boris johnson has caught the virus and has not been as public then he has previously, but the style of communication is still very much, lets try to get the media to focus on what will happen in the future rather than what is happening now. What is happening now is important and i feel that our government and trump is the the style of not communication for campaign it is the style of communication for a campaign. Crisis management, you have to take confidence for the decisions you are making and the person who is doing that jets most, Prime Minister merkel is doing that well, the Prime Minister in new zealand is doing well, and johnson and trump need to learn from them. Francine you are talking about communication. Does communication in this prices hinder politics . And if youmunicate keep people safe, it doesnt matter how you communicate unless you are not keeping people safe because of your communication. Alastair that is what is happening. Particularly an crisis, communication has to be embedded in the strategy. One of the reasons we are struggling at the moment is ,ecause going back a few weeks Boris Johnson was boasting that he visited a hospital and shook hands with coronavirus patients. He would say to people going to the cheltenham racecourse festival, which gathereds tens of thousands, hundreds of thousands of people, it was fine. Then he said the next week we are shutting schools and do not go out, the next messaging becomes a problem. I think we have had the same in the United States with mixed messaging from donald trump. It is not that communication is more important than strategy, but communication has to be embedded in the strategy. Tom wonderful to have you with us. I want to go back to tony blair before iraq and the disaster of that moment, something you had to deal with, and do this on a day where mr. Corbett today, tomorrow, yesterday, exits the labour party. More towards socialism . Will we tilt away from individualism and towards a sense of community . Alastair i hope so. I do think one of the most interesting things emerging in terms of peoples outlook at the ofent is a proper valuing people who normally tend not to be valued. We had a thing in the u. K. At 8 00 last night, and last thursday, pretty much the whole country people standing on their doorsteps and clapping, a simple thing, clapping and i was playing a musical instrument. Likerday was key workers refuse collectors, cleaners, people who teach in classrooms, assistance, the people who have the power and have the money think they are masters of the universe. Who is more important and powerful now . Cleanershe doctors and now more than the basketball players nothing against basketball players and in fact at the moment, we want our politicians to lead but they have got to show they are worthy of trust. So much, greatly appreciated, Alastair Campbell. Greatly appreciate you joining us today. It is an extraordinary jumble this friday, i cannot convey enough the dynamics in the United States, whether in economics and a markdown to gdp, or in the financial space where we see immense challenges, including in oil. Suggestingearlier, the opecplus meeting was today. Monday feels like today but i believe that call will be on monday. Francine it is a Virtual Meeting, a call maybe with video attached. We are talking to sources on the ground. That is what a lot of our opec team is trying to do, and opecplus delegates anonymously have set a global cut of around 10 Million Barrels today would be a realistic target. Saudi arabia has been insisting the deal must be broad and want other producers on board for obstacles, trying to mop up a global surplus. The meeting will be open to all producers, not just those from opec and its allies, but it is not clear if the u. S. Is prepared to join the Virtual Meeting or not. Later today, a you do not want to miss on the all employed in conversation you do not want to miss on the all important unemployment numbers, larry kudlow with Jonathan Ferro at 2 30 p. M. London, 9 30 new york. Viviana you are watching bloomberg surveillance. A story breaking on the bloomberg, and opecplus delegates saying an output cut of 10 million barrel cut cut of 10 Million Barrels a day is clear. U. S. Arabia will cut when and others shoulder the burden. Opecplus is putting together a meeting on monday after donald called for a historic cut. The Trump Administration doubling the Interest Rate lenders may charge Small Businesses for the relief loans. The rate is 1 . Rateenders complained the of one half of 1 was too low for their funds. The white house likely to urge people to cover their faces in public. The advice would be aimed at those living in areas hit hardest by the coronavirus, after Research Shows the virus may hang in the air after someone sneezes, coughs, or speaks. Demandair traffic following in february the most since the 9 11 attacks, travel following 14 . International air the Coronavirus Crisis is the biggest the Aviation Industry has ever faced. Global news 24 hours a day, on air and quicktake on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. Hurtado. Ana this is bloomberg. Tom thank you so much. Bloomberg news has a wonderful las andm, led by javier ba will kennedy. Julian lee, his dynamics are worldclass. I am going to cut to the chase. Wrote morris of citigroup one of the most scathing notes i have seen in the last six hours and said the president is wrong, he will not get it done, and we lack ofconsider massive demand, massive uncoordinated oversupply, prices to the teams, and even this teens and even the single digits. How do we get down to unimaginably lower prices . Julian the way we get down there is if there isnt a deal, and i share some of ed morris skepticism, then we will run out of space to score the oil that people are producing but consumers arent using. The problem will be that when we run out of storage space, prices will have to come down far enough to stop people from ,umping, and it very likely that will be into single digits. Workdoes this only particularly on a monday virtual opecplus call if the plus of washington climbs on board and allows oil supply cuts in the United States . Julian i think it probably does only work that way. There are two reasons and one is politics. The saudis have been beaten over the head for decades for not producing enough, and they are i think frankly fed up with it, and not surprisingly. The second is the United States has become the worlds biggest producer, and if you try to introduce global output cuts but leave out the biggest contributor to production, you are just making the job even more difficult, so there has to be some way in which u. S. Producers can be broad brought into this agreement. Francine who speaks for the u. S. Producers . There are thousands of shale producers. Do they speak with a common voice . Julian i dont think they do, but we cannot have everybody sitting around saying everybody else can cut but i should be exempt. If that is good for all of the shale producers, why isnt it good for saudi aramco . They all need higher prices. The Texas Railroad commission is one organization that perhaps through someate kind of apportionment to scale back in texas. Other state organizations perhaps could do that in other oilproducing states. The federal government made have a role to play in the federal off shoring of the gulf of mexico but without some input from the United States, this deal will not happen. Francine is there an ideal price that saudi arabia and others will be targeting . What is the price where everyone would kind of manage . Julian i think it is always impossible to find a price that suits everybody, even in normal conditions, and these arent normal. First off, it is not so much about price at the moment as about the physical store the consume and oil that is being produced. This is, if you like, much more the logistics problem at the precise moment then a price problem, so i am not sure anyone is looking at a price target. What they are very much more concerned with is a volume target. Thank you soee, much, greatly appreciated this morning. So much more to come, and one of the things we need to do on this jobs day is consider what is next. The fed has led on policy decisions as well. Stay with us on this jobs day, this is bloomberg. This is bloomberg surveillance. Attackingdonald trump 3m over unspecified problems with its production of protective masks, tweeting the company will have a big price to pay, but did not say why. Peter navarro said the administration has concerns about worldwide production being delivered to the u. S. Donald trumps Family Business asked Deutsche Bank about delaying loan payments. As of 2016, the Trump Administration owed about 340 million to the lender. That is your Bloomberg Business flash. Francine we are seeing a bit of news on oil, oil surging as producers eyeing a 10 million barrel a day output cut. 10. 3 to 33 ame barrel. Stocks are still under pressure. U. S. Futures, the latest Corporate News is trying to figure out what kind of economic turmoil we will see from a pandemic that has affected more than a Million People worldwide. Eight we get to Carl Riccadonna joins us next hour and everyone recalibrates off the jobs report, including the markets where we have seen a jumble in the yield and a flattening of the yield curve. Nudgey take. Oil surges. Next, peter hooper will join us from Deutsche Bank. This is bloomberg. Morning, in just two weeks, america has given up all the job gains since 2016. Economists it just adjust. Suggests a 15 Unemployment Rate and a tepid summer rebound. The president works the phone. Getexpects and hopes to the price of oil elevated. Citigroup and Edward Morris suggest further collapse. As wimbledon is canceled, Governor Cuomo will make the u. S. Open Tennis Courts a 350 bed hospital. Good morning, everyone, bloomberg surveillance, from my home in new york and her home in london, tom keene and Francine Lacqua. We continue to see the weeks extend