Little, too late. European Officials Say it is too lockdownrelax restrictions. The german finance minister says he is prepared to offer aid. Read on the screen in asia for the third day in a role. Weakness in european and u. S. Futures. After gains in their cash trading yesterday. Investors mulling this grim milestone in terms of the outbreak. Jobless claims out of the u. S. , 10 million ssericans laming joblessne over the past two weeks. It could be noisy data because it does not take into account the full stale scale of the lockdowns. The dollar index above 100, Holding Onto Gains from the past two gains. Record to jump as President Trump talked about saudi and russia cutting production. The state ofto fourwith coronavirus, months after surfacing in wuhan, china, it has infected one Million People across the world. Italy and spain amount for almost half the deaths. The u. S. Accounts for a quarter of the cases. For a quarter of the cases. With some virus carriers preventing presenting few symptoms and many countries unwilling or unable to conduct widespread testing, the number of cases is likely higher than one million. People who aree positive and china showed no outward signs of illness. The Asian Development bank says it could reach up to 4. 1 trillion or 5 of the global gdp. The u. S. Economy will strongly rebound amid the pandemic. Pentz told bloomberg the spike in jobless claims is temporary pence. Privatese of the Public Partnership we forged with these vast commercial labs, your listeners know well. Labcorp, quest, others, we are testing over 100,000 americans a day. Very significant breakthrough happened this weekend, moving with record speed, the fda approved admit a pointofcare test. It is literally a 15 minute test that people can have administered at their local doctor office. We are identifying thousands of Laboratory Machines around the country. We are making sure we are totributing those, not just areas seen and impacted today, but we want to distribute those. They are making about 50,000 of them a day. We want to distribute those two what isere we can do the kind of surveillance testing that would allow states that currently dont have a significant outbreak to be forewarned and forearmed. Do the kind of contacted tracing that would limit the exposure and spread. We aret point is, literally tracking every single coming number of cases out, where they are coming out. I have received a briefing this morning county by county, statebystate by state analysis. That is informing our only with theot Strategic National stockpile but with healthcare distributors around the country about where we are sourcing and focusing everything from personal protective equipment to all the supplies are healthcare workers need. We are focusing it were the outbreaks are. We are working closely with governors to support their personal whether for protective equipment or field hospitals. We will continue to do that around the clock. Lets talk about the personal protective equipment and ventilators at the same time. Coordinating, monitoring, encouraging. We have heard from some governors states are having to bid against each other. Is very thought we should have a Central Location that will decide where they go . When the president signed the National Disaster declaration, he stood up fema as the lead coordinator of our nations response. Fema has been working closely with governors to process requests, not just from the National Stockpile but we are working with distributors around the country. We are directing them in many cases where we need that personal protective equipment to go. We established with the president called an air bridge. Readingbe 51 flights and supplies for healthcare workers. Down sunday at jfk. Monday in chicago. Landing in miami last night. Those flights are going to continue to come in around the clock. What we are doing is we are taking 90 of those resources and deploying them to go directly to the point of need where hospital workers are asking for and requesting personal protective equipment. Use theway we can strength of the private sector Distribution System and the direction of our Logistics Team at fema to meet this moment. As we track the initial outbreak was the seattle area, washington state, california. Greaterepicenter is the new york city area. We are working to bring the supplies in. Increase production at home and directing them where they are needed most. That was Vice President mike pence speaking to bloomberg. Fed president says unemployment could rise as high as 15 . That is after 10 million americans lost their jobs. Thatuld get jobs numbers will be negative for the first time in a decade. Great to have you with us. Thank you for joining us. Lets start with the grim milestone in the out rake in terms of cases globally right now. Corona phase one of the crisis is over. Lockdowns could last 23 months, what is your base case for phase two . Does it get worse before it gets better . Indeed, stage one is over, we mean the first adjustment of markets to this new paradigm. Iscing in a recession probably mostly over by now. Thee and beyond fundamentals, the movement has been magnified by deleveraging. It was more classically centered in fixed income markets. They are connected. Selling,e of forced deleveraging, probably peaked out into the fourth week of march. The market has staged a rally. There is more pain shortterm potentially ahead. Shorttermn potentially. We saw a rally largely driven by oil markets. Some value parts have staged a comeback. Dawns when italse comes to value and cyclicals. To see to buyed into value and cyclicals right now in the market . Premium ise risk high at the moment. If you look at valuation spreads, the movement by historical standards was happening at literally light speed. The premium is typically at levels which are observed during a recession. The transition is for memo and tell him to turn around the economy. The second aspect, and the bigger picture, it feels like we are increasingly moving toward you see interference from can getnts as to who dividends. You wonder who will be picked and choose to be saved as opposed to let down. There might be value traps and markets. It is quite an unprecedented situation. Devastatingother number out of the u. S. Yesterday for jobs. 10 Million People claiming initial jobless claims. We look ahead to the nonfarm payroll. Because it noisy does not completely encompass the lockdown. Wages, terms of the given it is largely lowwage workers. That number might not be completely accurate. , if we dohat in mind get an Unemployment Rate in the mid teens in the u. S. Which would surpass the 10 peak of the financial crisis, what would a 15 Unemployment Rate mean for your Portfolio Allocation . I dont think such data drives the markets. In ators have factored rapid deterioration of employment. The key Market Drivers shortterm is the extent to which it can be contained. Suspect, is ahead compared to the u. S. The second aspect of course is the policy response. What you have seen in europe, the loan programs, switzerland is a good example, the Loan Companies hit by the complete loss of revenue almost overnight have already used the to plug their gaps. That is absolutely essential. These guarantees are turning into compensation for staying with us for the hour, thank you so much. The first word newss. Confirmed infections have topped one million. Deaths are exhilarating and much of europe. Areinfections in italy starting to slow and intensive care admissions have declined in spain and france. Officials say it is too soon to relax restrictions. A massive increase. The current capacity is under 13,000. 250,000r short of the target. Hancock describes testing as missioncritical. Tesla deliveries fell less than expected. They handed over 80 thousand vehicles in the last three months. Down 21 from the record at the end of 2019. It estimates. Expecting an average of 78,000. Powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts and more than 120 countries. A tweet from President Trump sent oil markets soaring. But did the market get ahead of itself . Stay tuned. Are now testing over 100,000 americans a day. We are literally tracking every single day the number of cases that are coming out, where they are coming out. That was u. S. President mike pence speaking to bloomberg. Lets get to the risk radar. To be fading. Ing u. S. Futures in the red, down 1. 5 . Lower, too. To open slipping eightld basis point. The dollar index above 100. The massive trump bump oil got yesterday fading a little. Sticking with oil, it is trading lower after President Trump sent prices soaring. He expected russia and saudi arabia alone to cut 10 Million Barrels a day. Moscow says it has not reached any deal with the in cuts. It should be an easy one. And maybe 10 and it may be more than that. I was told it may be 10. It may be 10. It may be more than that. It may be be 15, maybe as high as 15. Any trumps are seeing driven oil cuts as to little, too late. They suggest any deal is likely to be lower than headline cuts suggest. Joining us is annmarie hordern. Great to have you with us. What are the prospects of a deal between the major producers . I think you are right saying the market did get ahead of itself. Lower inking a leg both contracts. The idea they could come together, it is very complicated. You saw that immediately after trump treated tweeted. Other members as well. Maintaining if they cut, everyone has to cut with them. The u. S. , maybe brazil, etc. It would be very tricky. On top of that, how do you get agreeing of producers to an output cut agreement. It seems impossible. And potentially illegal. First of all, there are those challenges coming to outlook output cuts in the first place. Even if we did get there, what a deal do anything to lift prices . The short answer is no. Much higher than even a 20 Million Barrels a day we were hearing on the demand weakness side. I asked one of the Texas Railroad commissioners, he said to world needs to cut close 2025,000,000 barrels per day. They say it is too little, too late. We dont know how much demand is being lost. Nothing to really lift prices. It is too little, too late. Thank you so much. Lets get the business flash. Disney putting thousands of workers in unpaid furlough. Will continue to receive company benefits. They will be eligible for unemployment compensation. Bond sale,biggest tmobile has sold 90 billion in debt to help finance its acquisition of sprint. Formallyompanies completed their merger wednesday. The grocery stain is focusing its attention on running its business. No timetablesold for restarting talks with bidders. Stockpiling Grocery Store shoppers went to a record in march. U. S. Futures point lower after a bump from energy shares. Dollaryen, unchanged as the dollar Holding Onto Gains. The trump bump in oil fading slightly. Coming up, providing, italy and spain could get financial help. More on that next. This is bloomberg. This is bloomberg daybreak europe. As the global case number has hit one million, the epicenter is in europe. Spain,ce, italy, and new infections slowed in italy and intensive care infections to clyde. Declined. Italy is of particular concern. It had the weakest outlook of the member states. That was before the viruss drug. Says hencial minister is willing to offer quick Financial Aid to minus all the red tape. Do you see this as perhaps a sign of hope europe might be able to come together to fight this crisis . Absolutely. They are going the right direction. Moment for cohesion when the pandemic is finally contained. Is most impacted by the shutdown. Hit extremely hard. They will require fiscal support for quite some time. But kind of af protracted oneoff. I have argued for many years that essentially it was designed for another era. Werehen public deficits inflationary. Is only one benefit to revisitemic, it is to that criteria. From have some comments italy, replying to the letter. Saying it is time for the eu to be bold. What does a bold eu mean for investing in European Assets . , it cannot be proceeding with transfer from private sector healthy Balance Sheets to private sector Balance Sheets. It requires from public Balance Sheets to private Balance Sheets. In this spirit, it is important people think outofthebox, out of the traditional macroeconomic policies. The. Period to which the situation compares to is the 1940s, during the war effort in the u. S. , when the budget deficits were over 20 of gdp. It has to be we are out of time. We will be back with you in just a moment. Good morning from london, i am nejra cherish. Infectionsnavirus surpass one million. Mike pence says more than 1000 americans are being tested daily. We look at the economic toll in today possible job reports. Tocow said it has not agreed Goldman Sachs says it is too little, too late. Sayserman finance minister he is willing to offer italy and spain quick Financial Aid. A third view of declines in asia. We did see some green on the screen. Led largely by energy shares. That looks to fade in todays session. Coronavirus case and death toll is being focused on. The dollar heading for a weekly gain. The 10 year yield slipping a basis point. We are seeing the trump bump, a record surge, fading in todays session. It has infected more than one Million People around the world, over 50,000 lives have been lost with half of the deaths occurring italy and spain. The Asian Development bank says it could reach up to 4. 1 trillion or 5 of gdp. The u. S. Vice president pence says the economy will rebound strongly after the pandemic passes. That is despite mounting unemployment. Funds are being offered to families who are struggling. I want to tell the American People help is on the way thanks to the president s leadership and strong bipartisan help. We passed a historic relief bill that will be speeding 82 american families. The average family of four will ofeive a direct payment 3400. There are going to be loans which will operate as grants. During the course of the coronavirus epidemic, businesses , Small Businesses will be able to keep people in their payroll. We will get through this. We have supported Unemployment Insurance benefits. We are working closely with governors to make sure those who are impacted have the support to see their family, to see their businesses. Course of the coronavirus. We believe as americans put into practice the coronavirus guidelines. Closer every day be we will be one day closer to putting the virus behind us. Our priority is the health and wellbeing and lives of the American People. The president has every confidence as we help people through this time, the economy will come back stronger than ever before. We will stay focused on defeating this virus and giving the American People and our Health Care Workers the tools to do just that. Lets turn to that battle against what the president has called the invisible enemy. Classified intelligence information china set in information about how bad it was. How Many American lives might have been saved . Hadhere is no question china been more forthcoming than they have been, about the impact and the scope, not just to the u. S. But the world, it would have made a difference. That being said. We did have a team on the ground in february. We drew conclusions from that. Very first coronavirus case emerged, someone who had been in china in a matter of days, the president stood up, force suspended travel. Would issue travel advisories for south korea. Of travelers from those countries. All along the way, the American People have seen this president has been willing to take decisive and at times unprecedented action to put the health of america first. Bringing a whole of government approach and a whole of america approach. We are seeing american businesses step forward as never before. That is where we will keep our focus. Believe if theyre ,ery american does their part, if they do their part to heed state and local authorities, to engage in social distancing and mitigation efforts, we will put the coronavirus in the past. We will bring our nation back. Pence the u. S. E Vice President speaking to bloomberg. We have had a headline, italy planning up to 4 billion euros of stimulus. The country has been in lockdown since march. Italian officials talking about restrictions having to stay at a high level. Not everyone has thrown in the towel yet. Joining us with more is dani burger. Positioning is always important. We have already seen the market bottom. We are seeing a signal to buy. Is complicated, as it always is. They are reducing signs of capitulation. There has been 150 billion worth of outflows, by far a record. 90 billion in bonds. That might just be the start. They still havent reached a level since the financial crisis. When comes to institutional investors, signs say there is no capitulation. There is a survey showing clients are highly bullish. It is the most bullish reading they have gotten which is incredible. That suggests there is more selling ahead. Those investors saying valuations are attractive. They have not thrown in the towel yet which means we might see another bottom worse than we saw in march. Thank you so much. Lets get to the first word news. Toppeded infections have one million. Deaths are accelerating and much of europe. New infections and italy are starting to slow. Intensive care admissions have declined in spain and france. Officials say it is too early to relax restrictions. Findingand china is more asymptomatic cases. Testedt of five people showed no obvious signs. So called precinct emetics issymptomatic transmission making it hard to control. It has not reached any deal with saudi arabia. Moscow is planning for oil prices to be 20 a barrel this year. It will ramp up borrowing to make up for the shortfall. U. K. Secretary matt hancock pledging to increase testing to over 1000 a day by the end of april. It is short of the 250,000 250,000 a day target i the prime minister. Powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts and more than 120 countries. As countries around the world have gone to varying states of lockdown, members of the public have been forced to stay home. Retail revenue has collapsed. 88 midmarch collapse of could last four months. That means retailers may see secondquarter revenue erased entirely. Retail sales in hong kong down with almost no recovery in march suggests there is no quick recovery insight. Global retailers are feeling the pain. It is considering whether to layoff thousands of staff later this month. Meanwhile, h m has closed thousands of stores and several of its biggest markets including germany and the u. S. And has withdrawn a planned payment. Andill speak to the ceo discuss the numbers out soon as the outbreak continues. That is at 9 30 am u. K. Time. Lets get a quick check of the market. Third day decline for asian equities. U. S. Futures lower. Led by energy shares. Energy europe looks to a lower opening. The dollar index heading for a weekly gain. Oil giving up some of the gains from the record jump yesterday, the trump pump. Todaysins fading and session. Coming up, the u. S. Doubles the Small Business rate after complaints from lenders. We will discuss the Relief Program next. This is bloomberg. Get this. We have supported unemployment benefits. We are working closely with governors to make sure those impacted have the support to see their family, to see their businesses and to see their communities through the course of the coronavirus. That was mike pence. The u. S. Has doubled the Small Business rate after lenders complained the previous rate was below the cost of funds. Today, the march jobs report is expected to show payrolls fell for the first time in nearly a decade. The reference time was before widespread layoffs. Anothercourse after painful initial jobless number out of the u. S. Joining us is a Portfolio Manager at columbia thread needle investments. Thank you for joining us. First the Small Business administration bumping up Interest Rates lenders can charge. Is this going to bring any relief to small banks in the u. S. Which have suffered quite a bit of pain . Good morning. I think the certainty should help but it is important to keep in mind it is not intended per se to be a moneymaking exercise for banks. Help smallded to business customers which are the lifeline survive. This is all about helping the banks cover the cost of doing business. To becertainly not meant a profitmaking exercise per se. Make is a good point you with the stimulus. Not just in the u. S. But the rest of the world. Limitation, other than giving a lift or stimulus. If we look to small and Mediumsized Companies in the u. S. , how bad is it looking right now . Are hearing and terms of conversations with the companies have very little visibility. One of the things we do know is today as an example, the appointment numbers, this is going to look bad, for the most the firstas ready for part of march. Datahould be expecting the to get even worse. Absolutely. The other challenge for investors, when they look at the s p 500, you cannot put any kind of pe number. Is so uncertain. When you look at the earnings of the small and Mediumsized Companies you look at, are you changing the way you assess them and may be looking more at Balance Sheets . You have to be looking at Balance Sheets. Number one is to ensure their scenarios. Collectively we are all operating in a place where 2020 earnings are effectively in analyzable. One of the takeaways one could have in terms of how risk markets have treated so far is investors have conceded 2020 will be horrible. At this point as an investor i think first and foremost it is about Balance Sheet analysis. Trying to engage gauge how these is disses will perform in 2021 and beyond. The russell 2000 had its worst quarter ever in the first quarter. What does a bad performance for small and mid caps mean for the Broader Market . Of thecomposition russell 2000 is more domestic and higher data. In many ways, this tells us about expectations for the u. S. Economy. Even more importantly, it tells us a lot about willingness to take risks. Benchmarkent the continues to underperform, one can conclude expectations for the economy are rather muted. Investors arede not really in a place where they are willing to take in a lot of risk right now. It is mainly made up of consumer financials. Generally, these are three very beatendown sectors. What are you doing in the portfolio at the moment in terms of companies you are holding. First and foremost, valuations were rather attractive. Hasany ways, not much changed. About combing through the universe. Understanding competitive dynamics. Positioning with the companies that are going to be secular winners. If we get a 15 Unemployment Rate, and i know it is going to be noisy, how bad could things get. I think it is about trying to gauge how things are going to look. In the short term, given the composition, these are companies who through no fault of their own are going to be at the scene of the crime. Forwardrformance moving is going to be driven by Investor Expectations of how 2021 looks. Works. Extent stimulus it has a positive impact. Expect the could russell 2000 should have enough left as a result of that. U. S. Equities Portfolio Manager. Great to have you with us. Ratingsp, a major agency out with its latest call. We discussed next in your morning call. This is bloomberg. Question that had china been more forthcoming than they have been, about the impact and the scope and the nature of the virus, not just of the u. S. But to the world, it would have made a difference. President. S. Vice president mike pence. Its baselineusted assumption. Restrictedll be between 23 months. That will cause deterioration in the labor market and personal income. What will result is a slew of defaults continuing through 2022. They estimate oil will stay range bound between 2530 dollars. In the worstcase scenario, sectors would continue to emerge in Major Economies and push meaningful recoveries jan to 21. You make the point we are still in a secular bull market. Will that remain the case if we have continued lock downs . Crocs i think it is extremely unlikely. Indeed, the longer the slow down, the deeper the damage to the economy. In particular, private sector Balance Sheets. Aspect ise critical the extent to which the policy response is appropriate. When you see headlines about stimulus, we should make it clear this has been guaranteed. Unemployment benefits. We need to more of this. Good andomething sufficient to help the private sector get over that crisis. Cio of julius baer, thank you so much. Breaking news from h m saying tens of thousands of workers are to be affected by the coronavirus outbreak. The next sales for march decreased by 46 . At 2. 5 billion dollars. We will speak to the group ceo later today. It does see a secondquarter loss because of coronavirus as well. That is it for daybreak europe. The dollar heads for a weekly gain. This is bloomberg. Good morning. Welcome to Bloomberg Markets european open. Im an edwards. Alongside matt miller in berlin. Matt good morning. The market say it takes more than a tweet. Oil prices retreat with stocks and futures as investors reassess their optimism over the possible end of the price war