Transcripts For BLOOMBERG Bloomberg Daybreak Europe 20240713

Steps. Morgan stanley and wells fargo join european lenders in pledging to preserve jobs during the crisis. Deutsche bank says it will pause future cuts amid its restructuring. Welcome to bloomberg daybreak europe. U. S. Futures on the back foot today after the best threeday gain in mere nine decades for the s p 500. The dow is technically in a bull market but it is 25 below the february 12 record. In terms of asia, a mixed picture. Following that emergency 75 basis point cut by the bank of india. A big drop in industrial profits in china. That is the news overnight out of asia. The 10year treasury yeild slipped five basis points. Risk off coming back into these markets after the powerful risk rally. We ask the question whether it is a bear market after the devastating rest jobless claims numbers, so weakness in the dollar. The dollar is hedging for its biggest retreat since 2009. Gold has its biggest weekly advance since 2008 after the effects of the funding squeeze and oil heading for a weekly gain as well. The u. S. Has overtaken china as the nation with the most confirmed cases of coronavirus. According to Johns Hopkins, the u. S. Has more than 85,000 positive tests. They propose a risk classification system to help businesses return to normal. Fight the coronavirus is signed into law. Jerome powell said in a rare nationally televised interview, when it comes to this lending, we are not going to run out of ammunition. Nancy pelosi said the house will move quickly to approve the Senate Rescue plan. We will have a strong byartisan vote and hopefully noon, we will be finished. That will depend on how carefully we have to come into the floor of the house to vote. Hordern joins us from new york. Great to have you with us. Just update us on what we need to know overnight in terms of the numbers of u. S. Cases. Annmarie we got that latest data from Johns Hopkins with the u. S. Overtaking china, where the outbreak again, on the number of confirmed cases. Nearly 86 thousand confirmed cases in the united states. Half of those are coming from new york state. New york is becoming the epicenter of a pandemic in the united states. We are seeing a lot more numbers in new jersey as well as california and on top of that as well, more hot spots like michigan and illinois and to the north of us, canada. 72 . Cases served the concern is that now this will accelerate even more in the united states. The World Health Organization talked about the u. S. Becoming the epicenter. Meantime yesterday, we all focused on it. Devastating u. S. Jobless claims numbers. President trump predicting the nation will get back to work pretty quickly. He is still talking about the end of locked down by april 12 and easter. How realistic is that . Annmarie what he is talking about with governors and he wants to have these guidelines sent for local leaders about basically some counties that could get back to work where we are not seeing the high number of infection rates like we are seeing in new york. Dr. Anthony fauci, who is really leading the charge on the health front, he was saying in an interview on instagram with even curry that basically, you treat new york city a little bit differently than you treat nebraska, so basically, trump wants to offer these guidelines. You are talking about this devastating look at this chart. Devastating unemployment jobless claims numbers. Everyone i am talking to says it can get even worse. Some people cannot get on the line. It came out just about an hour from jayer i heard powell. He went on the today show, clearly trying to reach a broad set of americans. His message, which was different from trumps, was that we cannot get americans back to work as long as the virus is spreading. He says the virus will dictate that timetable. The other big message to the American People is that the fed was not out of ammunition. Nejra annmarie hordern, thank you so much. Joining us for the hour is the senior economist at baron berg. Errenberg. Jobless claims could get even worse from here. Have the measures that have been taken so far both by the fed and also by congress, are those measures going to be enough to stop mass layoffs and mass bankruptcies . [indiscernible] the two key objectives, while the world is locked down by policymakers, is to make sure to minimize the rise in unemployment and reduce the risk of bankruptcy to as low a rate as possible, making sure firms can get credit, that they have plenty of cash flow. Dictates is what will the weight of this recession and at the moment, the containment measures are in Global Demand and supply. They need to pair to do whatever it takes rise long as it takes. The fed has signaled unlimited q. Week. That is a good step. When it comes to the congress, 2 trillion is hopefully enough. We will see coordination were basically governments issued debts and bonds to finance these policies and eventually, those bonds simply migrate to the Central Banks Balance Sheet. Remainrk borrowing costs low so the private sector can get what they need as governments gear up. Being called a helicopter credit drop, what the fed are implementing at the moment. I was watching an interview with all the time on my hands, of course, being in locked down. I was watching a long interview he wasll gates and saying, in what he called rich countries, there is a possibility we could be out of this isolation period in the space of six to 10 weeks. That might be an optimistic scenario but if that were the case, how quickly might we see the fed on wind some of the measures it has taken if it does some of the measures it has taken if it does . Kallum [indiscernible] health crisis, which is number one. We will see it in Economic Data across the world. The nearterm drops will be spectacular, exceed anything that we saw in the first phase of the financial crisis, hence you have this huge policy response. However, underneath all of this, you have a fundamentally healthy Global Economy. If policymakers succeed in giving their keeping their economies afloat, once the containment measures are lifted, the rebound on the others could be equally spectacular, hence policymakers need to be ready to do what it takes to contain Inflation Expectations, to manage the upswing. Central banks need to withdraw some liquidity injections faster than we have been used to. Perhaps it means on the fiscal side, you withdraw spending. Time, we ares needif in six mos having that conversation, i will feel very lucky indeed. We need to keep an eye on the next two months and see what policymakers have to do to get us through that. Nejra if things do not actually get better and we look at the worst side of the scenario, what more can the fed do from here . I spoke to a guest who said they can look at buying commodity futures and that would help with the dollar funding squeeze. Kallum the thing that we have to be very wary of is that the [indiscernible] that is the reason why you have [indiscernible] to pay their wages. You have to be careful that the credit crunch. The is what accelerated 20082009 recession. So far, policymakers are doing what it takes to stop that. This question is whether they have enough ammunition. As long as Inflation Expectations are well anchored in the market is ready to accept dollars, which it clearly is, it has all the ammunition it needs. It can simply print the money in order to stimulate markets, in order to introduce liquidity tight areas. Re what matters here is whether or not over the next quarter or two, they can afford to get us through this and the simple answer to that question is yes. This will not be a permanent recession. Eventually, the virus will run its course. We dont know how long that will be. If governments are willing to do what it takes, they can afford to do what it takes. The central bank is an important tool. Really, this is a fiscal question rather than a centralbank question. Nejra Kallum Pickering from berenberg staying with us for the hour. Turning to the outbreak in europe, e. U. Leaders struggle to agree on a concrete strategy to contain the fallout from the coronavirus as they push for more radical steps and a credit line from the bailout fund including proposals such as joint debt issuance. Leaders are leaving key details to be hammered out by e. U. Finance ministers. Joining us, maria tadeo. Good to see you. Was anything at all agreed between e. U. Leaders on the call . Maria no. It was disappointing. It was underwhelming. If you look at the picture in europe in which a recession is very much going forward, if you look at the number of people who are pretty much still dying on a daily basis, european leaders were simply not able to put anything to paper yesterday. What is emerging here is there is a Huge Division when it comes to corona this is the focus of the debate. There are countries in europe that file credit line that is down to a bailout fund, it will not be enough. They want new tools and they want it now. I am thinking of countries like spain, italy, badly hit, but also france. Christine lagarde is on board. There is a lot of pushback from countries like germany and the netherlands. The way to go about this is through the efm and they dont tonk that is anywhere close happening and that is creating a false sense of expectation. Angela merkel also said at one point during that call it was disappointing and we did not really get any details on anything. Nejra we are very much focusing on the u. S. Overtaking china for the most coronavirus cases worldwide. What are the latest numbers from italy and spain . Maria there has been an increase in the cases. It has been pretty remarkable. In spain, over the pace of the week, more than 40,000 cases being added to that tally. The government warned that it reflects the fact that we are testing more people. The same happened innately, where there was another spike in the number of cases but if you look at the number of deaths, they are stable now. They have become a little bit more flat. To say that we are close to a peek at this point is probably premature because we are seeing the data still continue to be very volatile and we are not actually seeing any indication of declines that we see are stable and form a trend so its very volatile. Our reporter, maria tadeo, in brussels. We will be speaking to the Vice President of the European Commission and we will be speaking to moscovici, the former e. U. Commissioner for economy and Financial Affairs about jointly issued debt and the g7. Dont miss those interviews right here on bloomberg tv this morning. Lets get to the first word news. President donald trump says the g20 discussed the importance of data sharing during the coronavirus pandemic. Leaders from the worlds richest nations have planned to inject 5 trillion into the Global Economy, committing to do whatever it takes to overcome the fallout. Steven mnuchin reiterated he wants u. S. Financial markets to remain open despite the wild volatility fueled by the ongoing outbreak. He says the consensus is in the best interest for trading and stock and other assets continuing. Mission added he is focused on helping mortgage firms expected to be hardhit. Cash. K. Is offering to pay grants of as much as 2. 5 thousand pounds a month. He announced a three month plan he expects will cost 9 billion pounds. 3. 8 million workers will be eligible for the grant, 95 of. Elfemployed workers venezuela is Nicolas Maduro says traffickingfor drug is a false accusation. It follows the u. S. Offering a 15 million reward for information leading to the leaders arrest. William barr said the maduro regime is awash in corruption and criminality. Global news, 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. Coming up, relief for thousands of bankers. More european and u. S. Lenders we have what you need to know, next. This is bloomberg. Nejra this is bloomberg daybreak europe. I am they were to pitch in london. The best three days for the s p 500 in three decades. Amid this bear math get, market, futures on the back foot. The 10 year yields dropping some weakness in the dollar, heading for its worst week since 2009 and oil heading for a weekly gain and gaining today. Lets turn to what you need to know today. Major u. S. And european banks are hitting the pause button on job cuts. Staff have enough to worry about with the spread of the coronavirus. Joining us to discuss his dani burger. Thousands of bankers can take a breath of relief. Morgan stanley and citi saying they would put their planned job cuts on ice. Part of the reasoning here are certainly altruistic. Deutsche bank, in a memo to its employees, saying it did not want to add to the duress their employees were already feeling in the current situation. Another reason, certainly political. Keep in mind they are receiving nearly unprecedented government aid, so doing job cuts in that sort of environment is very politically sensitive. Some of the major european banks to do this, to put the job cuts on ice, including deutsche bank, are also socgen. They said they would reduce some of the job cuts along with commerce bank, but a total freeze also coming from hsbc. For these european banks, it is a difficult time to say they will do this because these banks have wanted to cut jobs as part of their program to reduce spending and get back to profitability. In that context, not everybody is striking the same tone. Unicredit is going ahead with its plan to cut 6000 jobs by next month. Peopleo according to familiar, still planning to cut jobs and its markets business. Narrow. Nejra. Nejra thank you so much. The call between leaders was not as fruitful as hoped and they struggled to agree on a concrete strategy contingent to contain the virus. They are pushing for more debtal steps such as joint issuance, something Christine Lagarde is backing. She warned the crisis we are facing is of epic proportions. Callum Pickering Kallum iskering from berenberg still with us. If the political wrangling continues, the ecb is going to be forced to take more measures that might risk Financial Stability . Dont know if Financial Stability is necessarily a risky, but the ecb is the one that would have to step up. Europe has a problem. This is not news. It is fortunate that european leaders could come together. It would be a good device to allow stronger members to provide some coverage for the weaker members, but two things are quickly important. First, governments are not seeking the usual budget rules. They have been put to the wayside for the time being. Countries like italy would easily be able to run as much as a 10 or 12 deficit this year and no one would blink an eye. Alongside that, you have the ecb itsh is saying as part of emergency corona q. Week, it will buy up whatever bonds it likes. There will be no issue or limits. We can buy greek and italian bonds. Together, that is a usually powerful device. It is more of a political issue, european leaders coming together. They present a legacy afterwards but it is not an economic problem. Nejra to the point that you make on the pe pp and the corona kiwi and the limits being put to the side, is that a case to be made that may be the esm credit financing and the argument around that that could potentially lead to outright monetary transactions, thats not necessary because pepp is enough, or should all tools be used, as Christine Lagarde was saying . Kallum this is about confidence. Lenders need confidence. This is why the loan guarantees are so important. It is the most powerful tool that the eurozone has. If esm is part of that, so they can come up with some deal where countries can get, say, a 2 loan, 2 of their gdp on the esm, that would open the door for those countries, so it would be good for europe that all the tools at its disposal are ready to be used. But you are quite right. Between the ecb and shifting the rules to the wayside on the budget, those are very powerful things. There is a positive reaction to this. A second virus shockwave is threatening to hit chinese factories already. It is already hitting because of what we are seeing in the european economy. If we get a second wave of a hit to chinas economy, will that put your base case of a stable Global Economy into question . Kallum fundamentally, the Global Economy is healthy. This is one of the good things to keep in mind heading into this crisis. On sustainablean growth path. If china has a second wave, that would be unfortunate. [indiscernible] to get its economy through that second wave. Policymakers have a choice now. There is a recession which is inevitable. On top of it, we have a financial crisis which would prevent a rebound once the containment measures are lifted. This is a policy choice. Government and Central Banks [indiscernible] so far, we see evidence that are making the choice that this would just be a recession. Downturnnot track to financial crisis. Nejra Kallum Pickering from berenberg staying with sp or to up next, we will turn to the u. K. Bank of England Holding Interest Rates. The chancellor unveiling a full package of measures to help the selfemployed. This is bloomberg. Nejra this is bloomberg daybreak europe. I am nejra cehic in london. In the u. K. , the chancellor says he will do whatever it takes to pop up as misses. He announced 9 billion pounds of support for the selfemployed. Sterling staying strong after the bank of england held Interest Rates at a record low. Kallum pickering from berenberg is still with us. The stimulus coming from the chancellor surpasses what europe had during the financial crisis. Will the fiscal stimulus be enough to allow the bank of england to do no more . Kallum probably not. It will probably trigger the bank of england to do even more. If you watch how many bonds Central Banks are going to buy over the next couple quarters, just look at debt going to issue. I would not be squeamish about this. The u. K. Is only going to run what resembles a wartime deficit during the next couple of quarters. That 5 or 10 deficit you see in a normal recession, those are far too low. In world war i, world war ii, the u. K. Was running a 25 deficit. If we get to 15 or 20 , the government will have to issue a lot of the bank of england will need to scoop that debt up. I would not be surprised if we get an extra 200 billion. Nejra Kallum Pickering from berenberg staying with us. Lots more to discuss and getting a quick check on the Market Action, futures on the back foot the start ofit Something Big or actually a false bottom . We will be speaking with Robert Kaplan and Raphael Bostic exclusively today. Do not miss those interviews. This is bloomberg. Good morning from london. I am nejra cehic. This is bloomberg daybreak europe, and these are todays top stories. The u. S. Overtakes china on global coronavirus cases. Afterquity futures drop the first threeday rally since midfebruary. E. U. Leaders clash on financial burden sharing as the highstakes summit ends with few concrete steps. To stabilize the economy. Italy reports new cases, the most in five days. And Morgan Stanley and wells fargo join european lenders in pledging to preserve jobs during the crisis. Deutsche bank says it will pause future cuts amid its restructuring. Welcome to daybreak europe. The best three days for the s p 500 yesterday. The dow is in a bull market, but is this a false bottom . Green on the screen and asia, playing catch up to the u. S. Session yesterday. Indian stocks rallying after an emergency cut by the r. B. I. Industrial profits dropping in china. U. S. Futures are still in the red. The european futures pointing to the green right now. The dollar posting a fourth day of weakness, heading for its biggest weekly retreat since 2000 nine. Perhaps it is heading for its best week. The 10year treasury yeild slipping five basis points. Now, the u. S. Has overtaken china as the nation with the most confirmed cases of coronavirus. According to Johns Hopkins university figures, the u. S. Has more than 85,000 positive tests. This grim milestone comes as President Trump poses a risk classification system to help businesses return to normal. The fed is poised to put trillions of dollars into the economy once the aid package is signed into law. Jerome powell said, when it comes to this lending, we are not going to run out of ammunition. Nancy pelosi told bloomberg tv that the house will move quickly to approve the senates passed rescue plan. We are very proud of the legislation. That will only depend on how carefully we had to come in, in small numbers, to the floor of the house to vote. Have in europe, leaders struggled to agree on a concrete strategy to contain the fallout from the coronavirus as france, spain, and italy pushed for more radical steps than a credit line from the bailout fund, including proposals such as joint debt issuance. Leaders are leaving key details to be hammered out by e. U. Finance ministers. Treasury secretary Steven Mnuchin reiterated thursday he wants u. S. Financial markets to remain open even if the coronavirus fuels while volatility. In the stock market, only one thing is constant. Itss p 500 just recorded quickest threeday advance in nine decades. The dow already started a fresh bull market, technically up from the lows after more than 2 trillion in value was created in three days. Gety fink says the time to back into equities is now. He took a longterm view saying that Institutional Investors should start adding risk. He did acknowledge a longlasting impact from the pandemic and said another round of stimulus will likely be needed. Joining us now is the u. K. Managing director at charles schwab. Thank you so much. Goingigns are the market to look to to know if what we are seeing in u. S. Equities is a false bottom or not . Time fors a confusing retail investors, and if you think it will be the typical metrics people look to in terms of technicals and valuation metrics, you could say that those are less relevant in this pandemic driven market. What we are suggesting to our clients is that one of the key ofngs to look to the numbers diagnoses of covid19. Fundamentally, the resolution to this issue at the world is dealing with is a medical one, and things will begin to turn whenmarkets become consumers spend more, activity resumes, and that will not happen until we see that curve flattening around the world, so we think that this is probably, from an investment point of view, something that is very dependent on the health care approach and the approach taken by countries all around the world. Nejra richard, if you are focusing on the health care approach and you have President Trump planning to rank counties by virus risk, he has a back to work drive, wants to end locked down by easter, parts of the country, theres a possibility they may relax social distancing. When you hear that, does that make you more reluctant to start buying equities now, as larry fink is suggesting . Richard if you are talking about buying equities now, the majority of our clients are investors rather than traders. And there are some opportunities in the market right now, but the majority of people who are impacted and affected by what we are seeing in the last few weeks are typically longterm investors who have seen their portfolios drop across asset classes. Now, what we are recommending for those clients is to of investingt part is understanding you will get periods of volatility such as this. This is an extreme one and it is difficult for investors to fully understand, but our recommendation to clients is to just ensure that you are appropriately asset allocated, to ensure your portfolio is well diversified and aligned with your investment goals. That is the fundamental message and it does not really matter what is happening either in counties or states across america on a health care basis. From an investment point of view, whether to buy equities now were not, is not really as relevant as whether or not your overall portfolio is diversified. The point i was making is if the economy reopens and then you get a resurgence of cases, and that is what investors are looking to, it might mean that we take another leg lower in equities but i understand you also say investors are waiting on an all clear signal to get back in. How much are you advising investors to look to the credit market for signals on whether and when to buy equities . Richard it is very difficult. In terms of fixed income and debt, that market is driven by for Interest Rates, and credit risk. At the moment, both sides of that equation are highly volatile. It is very difficult for either valuefind or stability in that market. So looking to the credit market is qs is going to be cues going to be difficult. Fundamentally, taking a step towards the stimulus package that it made its way through washington this week, it is probably the likely cause behind the threeday rally that we have seen. Fundamentally, what we are considering, the stimulus package is more of a rescue deal. So this market goes both for fixed income and for equities. It will only really find its footing once the pandemic so thisreceives and we start se recedes and we start seeing cases dropped. We have seen positive things for those countries around the world. The reality is that this is going to take time and there is no immediate fear to the markets providence. Nejra in the meantime, what about your sector views . Are there any sectors you are downgrading or upgrading at the moment even as we do see a very correlated and sentiment driven market . Richard yes, we have recently downgraded financials. Primarily due to Interest Rates. Interest rates for longterm Interest Rates for financials typically tend to the broader market. They obviously borrowed shortterm rates, longerterm rates. We reduced financials. We upgraded utilities for similar reasons. Utilities. Typically stable earnings and higher dividend yields. Up. Ave simply moved them but you know, we are comfortable with our clients investing in utilities, and we have Held Health Care at that rating for quite a while. We are confident there is value in that market and the fundamentals are good. Now, in terms of the devastating jobless claims number we had yesterday, richard, and how that translates into the consumer sector, would you be completely avoiding realrs like housing, estate, consumer discretionary, for example, at the moment . Or are you looking for an opportunity where you could enter those sectors . Richard for us, to be honest, when we look at our recommendations to investors, we think diversification is by far the most appropriate course for all investors, so we would never exclude any particular asset class at any given point. That said, we do consider certain areas to be obviously offering lower opportunity at the moment, and so, it will be a wild until the consumers are back on their feet, so to speak, and spending and contributing in the same way for the economy, so you know, what we would typically guide our clients to do is just manage your diversification and asset to theion, and then look cues and markets to try and identify the return to normalcy. You can borrow warren g. Hardings phrase. Those kind of things, we would be looking at consumer confidence. Retail sales will be a key figure to look at over the next 12 months, i think, and as you look at those figures, you will get an idea of just how the new normal has been absorbed once the issue is resolved, but coming back to the stimulus package, that stimulus package can only do so much and we are dependent in those areas that you talked about. Completely dependent on those restrictions being lifted. Nejra thank you so much for joining us, richard flynn. Lets get to the first word news. President donald trump said the g20 discussed the importance of data sharing during the coronavirus pandemic. It is from the worlds richest nations planned to inject 5 trillion into the Global Economy, committing to do whatever it takes to overcome the fallout. The Federal Reserve is set to drop trillions of dollars into the u. S. Economy. A massive program of helicopter credit. Aid package ishe signed into law. The actions are unprecedented and go way beyond anything it did during the 2008 financial crisis. The feds Balance Sheet could double to nine to 10 trillion. Nicolas maduro said his u. S. Indictment for Drug Trafficking is a false accusation. It follows the u. S. Offering a 15 million reward for information leading to the leaders arrest. William barr says the maduro regime is awash in corruption and criminality. Global news, 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. As policy enters uncharted territory, centralbank action is getting more technical. The ecb is mulling omt. The fomc is unleashing its see pff cpff. Jargon are trillions of dollars being put to work to show the economy from the coronavirus outbreak. Lets start with the fed. Its new programs include the commercial Paper Funding Facility and initiative to buy shortterm debt directly from u. S. Companies. The primary dealer Credit Facility is for purchasing a wide range of securities from the big banks and brokers dealing directly with the fed, and the money market mutual liquidity facility authorizes the purchase of high quality assets from the fund to relieve shortterm funding stress. We will break down the ecbs actions a little later. Lets get a quick check of the Market Action. We are seeing u. S. Futures on the back foot after the best and quickest threeday rally in nine decades. In the u. S. , the dow technically in a bull market. It dollar weakness on this the screen. The u. S. Past a grim milestone with the number of cases surpassing those of china. We will take a look, a global look, at the global coronavirus crisis, next. This is bloomberg. Omberg. This is bloomberg daybreak europe. I am they were to pitch in london. A grim. Passed milestone with the number of cases surpassing those in china. Worst Case Projections dont match those in china. Isorah birx said the u. S. Five times bigger than italy. On that basis, it would mean into they should have close to 400,000 deaths, which is not close to the current number. Joining us now is the Principal Research associate at ucl. Great to have you with us. What should be the u. S. s approach from here . Some people far more informed than me on the subject to say that what the world and the u. S. Should be focusing right now are two things, testing and isolation. With that completely. If there are enough tests to test everyone, we would have a really good handle on how many people are infected, who should go out, who should stay in. Until that happens, the safest approach definitely is self isolation. We need to prevent the spread, flatten the curve. We have all seen what happens when Health Care Systems get overwhelmed. Nejra absolutely. Yet you have President Trump pushing for a reopening of the u. S. Economy by easter, april 12. The potential ramifications of course are exactly what you have referred to, pressure on the health care system, if we get a resurgence of cases. What could be the actual fallout if this does go ahead . Jennifer it is too optimistic to start business as usual so quickly. We need to keep locked down, and i think if we do not, what you will see is a surge, and you will have more damage because you will have a much longer epidemic in your borders. I really think easter is not at all a good idea, and i think other people agree with me. Thing thatthe other a lot of people are saying is that this is not going to be the first pandemic epidemic. Of course, we have had other similar respiratory diseases in the past but if this is going to keep happening, how should Health Care Systems and governments be preparing themselves for future pandemics right now . Jennifer i think that they will keep coming. This is definitely what most people agree with. The only thing we can do is to be prepared. To be prepared for a pandemic about which you know nothing requires a lot of scientific research, money into research. We need diagnostic tests that can be deployed in a plug sort of way so diagnostic tests for the cair kind of viruses we thik are coming. We have known about coronaviruss for years. We knew about sars and mers, yet we still did not have vaccines. Research is what we need to come to our rescue in the future. That jennifer, how is it parts of asia managed to contain the virus so successfully in a matter of a few weeks . Jennifer the countries that were successful were either completely locked down or doing massive testing, massive contact screening, surveilling people who were walking around, gps trackers on them. They were really, really hardcore surveillance efforts. If we are not doing that and we are not testing, then of course people will spread the virus because they do not know they have it. At the moment, most countries like the u. K. , the u. S. , and a lot of countries in europe, rn locked down. Realistically, how long do you think those lockdowns will need to continue to actually stop the spread of cases and to flatten the curve . Jennifer its impossible to say, but we are looking at months rather than weeks. The question is, how long will people be able to tolerate this locked down, at the moment . It is hard. I am teaching my child, doing a fulltime job online. It is difficult. I think it is almost unprecedented what they are asking us to do. On the other hand, i do believe it is necessary. But keep in mind, there are drugs coming down the pipeline, a vaccine coming down the pipeline. With any luck, some of these drugs might work. Do we actually know for sure in terms of the seasonality of the virus and how its actually spread . Jennifer we dont know anything for sure. What i can say is that, first of all, we are seeing spread in countries. Singapore, australia. These are not cold countries and the virus is doing pretty well. As far as how it spreads, a little bit of uncertainty. Initially, we thought it was only through droplets being expelled from sneezes and coughs. A recent study last week maybe they can spread as an airborne virus where it lingers in the air, settles down on objects, lives on objects for days. So we are not really sure how it spreads. I think the main way it spreads is still thought to be through droplets, but we cannot discount the fact that there could be an airborne component. Nejra jennifer rohn, Principal Research associate at ucl. Lets get a quick check on the Market Action and what action the dow technically in a bull market. The s p 500, fastest threeday gain in nine decades. Futures in u. S. On the back foot. Green on the screen in asia. The dollar heads for its worst week since 2009. Oil and gold, weekly gains. This is bloomberg. This is bloomberg daybreak europe. I am nejra cehic in london. The historic surge of glob loose jobless claims. Barclay warrants next thursdays data could be double that figure. Here with the details is bloombergs dani burger. Dani thats right. Everyone was gob smacked by the jobless claims yesterday. The chart was wild. Caughtge kickoff really people not necessarily by surprise, but it is shocking nonetheless, but after that shocking figure, we look to next week. What is it going to be . Theres a lot of highfrequency data that can give us a clue and that is exactly what barclays strategists have been looking at. They specifically have been tracking new york city calls where people can ask about unemployment insurance. They say that compared to last week, this week, those calls have doubled. It is not a perfect relationship. Sometimes, it is. Sometimes, its not. This can certainly give us an idea of the magnitude and direction of what we should expect next week, nejra. Nejra dani burger, thank you so much. Jennifer rohn from Kallum Pickering from berenberg is still with us. Kallum the daily data on consumption,ore traffic around the world, it gives us a handle on the developments in realtime. When it comes to the macroEconomic Data, we need to look at retail sales, industrial orders. Seems like industry is doing a bit better than Domestic Services and retail with the way the shutdowns are playing out. Markets are often moved by whether or not data is better or worse than anticipated. For analysts, everything is at best guess at the moment. It what we should keep in mind is a few things. The broadbased shock, that is what the data is telling us. The nearterm hit is worse than the financial crisis. The risks are to the downside. The risks are only in hindsight when we realize how severe this hit is. Will weennifer rohn see another drawdown in equities soon . Kallum [indiscernible] so much for you joining us, senior economist at. Erenberg coming up, we will be speaking with Robert Kaplan and Raphael Bostic exclusively today. Do not miss those top interviews right here on bloomberg tv. This is bloomberg. When you move homes, you move more than just yourself. Thats why xfinity has made taking your internet and tv with you a breeze. Really . Yup. You can transfer your Service Online in about a minute. You can do that . Yeah. And with twohour Service Appointment windows, its all on your schedule. Awesome. So while moving may still come with its share of headaches. No kidding. Were doing all we can to make moving simple, easy, awesome. Go to xfinity. Com moving to get started. Matt good morning. Welcome to bloomberg markets. This is the european open. I am matt miller, live in berlin. The u. S. Overtakes china with the nation is the most coronavirus infections, as worldwide cases top half a million that we know of. U. S. Futures drop after the doubt drags itself into a bull market after just three days. A huge again, and futures down a little. Eu leaders strug