Warning of more damage. Vonnie similar story here in the u. S. We are seeing a nice rally continue on the s p 500, up 4. 9 . The worst performers include viacom and cbs. Viacom went to market without cbs. Rallyingoleum company 21 . Boeing is another big help, particularly for the dow. The 10 year, 81 basis points. The dollar index, down at 1. 5 , some currencies really just flying today. Offshore trading at 7 08, a little lower than it was earlier today. The fixing was much weaker than it has been in the last several sessions. Thes get more details on session in global markets, here with us is taylor riggs. Taylor i want to talk about the major averages. The dow has rallied more than 20 to effectively pull us out of the bear market. We are still off 25 from the peak. As you mentioned, tech having some weakness yesterday but turning that around and getting some strength today. You are catching a bid for the 10 year, movement of money going into both equities and bonds, which is interesting. Take a look at the s p 500 over the last three days, now seeing the best three days since 1933. As you said, perhaps the whisper number, what is going on with the unemployment claims is a lot worse and everybody feels like uestimating. I want to look at the way the u. S. Is leading the way. In london, you are only up 1. 5 or so. Asia is faring worse. Really, it is a u. S. Leading the gains, which has been the story really for the past few years. You see that in the msci world index xus, which is only posting half the gains as the u. S. Market. Finally, a look at some of the individual stocks we are seeing. A lot going on underneath there. Carnival cruises is up 20 . Said hetanley analyst found a lot of air carriers mentioned 40 times, but no mention of the cruise industry. So it is really interesting to see some of these. As well as oil, settling the icahn to change up the board. So a lot of movement in some of the stocks underneath. Guy the boeing move is absolutely sensational. We have been watching carnaval here in europe as well. Taylor, thank you. Lets turn our attention to the eurozone bond markets. We have seen huge moves in spanish, greek and italian bonds, after the is to be revealed details that it had started its pandemic emergency purchase plan. The numerals are much more areible the new rules much more flexible than the market had participated and will allow the ecb to purchase bonds and purchase short dated paper as well. Lets bring in david page, he joins us now from london on the phone. David, or you surprised at how flexible the ecb is being . David yes and no. I think we had been expecting that to come three. We had been the sugar has been a lot of talk about whether the ecb was suffering from debt issues and whether the rules would be relaxed. The fact that the ecb is making changing its policy to accommodate in the short term for these issues, is probably the most politically friendly but eventting some though, it is a Material Change for the ecb and we can see the reaction from the markets on the back of that. Guy just a repeat of what we have seen in previous cycles for europe. Governments unable to take coordinated action. The call going on now between european leaders. We are not going to see them taking the option of coronabonds , the option of euro bonds, joint debt once again, and that is a missed opportunity for the eurozone. Is the ecb still the only actor in europe when it comes to taking crossborder National Action at this point question mark is the ecb dont want that can really help the euro zone economy . David it is certainly the only one that can move quickly enough deploy thems to serious arsenal, the Balance Sheet that has come through. Up until a few weeks ago, it would have seemed incredible to see the ecb using the balance employing, but it is the only agency that is able to move quickly enough in this context. This does not resolve the problem. What the ecbs doing to its Balance Sheet should be viewed as Monetary Policy, although it is starting to blur the realms and moving across the different through. Policy coming but when you look at the mediumterm, these countries will still see significant indebtedness. We still see individual governments making significant commitments other economies. That will build up a ledger for these governments to work down in the coming years, and that will be difficult. If you think back to the debt crisis in 2010, a couple of , the demandthe gfc shock and damage done to the economy this year could still reverberate into a sovereign debt issue as we look further down the line. The ecbs actions in the shortterm mitigate that, but there is still a significant role for europe to play. Vonnie in some ways, we have seen this picture before, and we didnt have that much will for help and the less fortunate economies at that time. What happens now to the likes of italy and potentially spain, even france . Do they get housed out by germany, or will germany stand pat, even though this is a disease that could have infiltrated every country to the same extent, it just hasnt yet . David i think that is it. There are two key differences. First is there is an argument going back to the sovereign debt that it wasously, just rewards on those governments. It was an argument that was made. Nobody is to blame for hogarth coronavirus. Coronavirus. Ts that is one of the key differences will see coming through. I think governments will have to think about, and the other noneuropean governments that have always been resistance, will have to think about the flexibility of european health. The other point is that, we also are seeing a problem vonnie somebody is scraping you. David sorry. The second problem is we have seen what happens to the european irena when we dont see appropriate policy come through. N comee seen extremizatio through in politics across europe. Europe, we risk still having those political problems. So europe has more reason to step up to this challenge. Vonnie what does it do next . It has the right to buy everything at this point. Is it up to some set of Fiscal Authority somewhere, is it up to germany . David from the ecbs perspective, it looks reasonably clear that they will make sure the governments are able to fund themselves. It will continue to provide fiscal stimulus and backstop the economy as needs to be done. I think that becomes the shortterm play here. What we then have to see is how much damage there is and how longterm the damage is. If we are in a situation where growth struggles to recover from previous levels, where we start to see the government stress come through again, the ecb is not going to always be able to provide what is effectively still Monetary Policy to take the edge off the crisis. Guy what is the longterm trajectory in terms of rates . We have seen a number of people talking about it in the last 24 hours, the huge amount of debt being created. Bigu. S. With a big package, packages it europe as well, though on a national basis, does that mean we will have to see rates very close to zero for a very long time as a result of what is being done to protect us from the virus . David i think that is right. This. O issues around certainly, for a long. Of time, that is lucky to be the case. What the authorities are desperately trying to do is provide some offsetting growth. It will not come through in the next couple of quarters, while the economies are on lockdown, but some rebound in growth afterwards to allow for inflation to pick up. We need to see growth that can recover. Nominal growth to start to the nominal debt coming through. The goal will be, and it has been since the Global Financial crisis, to revise inflation. Obviously, we have seen the Federal Reserve and the ecb both moving towards trying to lock in positions which have got higher inflation targets. And the u. S. Federal reserve trying to see average inflation above the target for a period of time after a issue. It does create a greater inflationary environment down the line. The problem is in the last decade or so, it has been a difficult to achieve that above target inflation. With the coronavirus, there are many things we dont know about it. We are expecting a short demand hit which translates into an economic slowdown. That is why we have seen such a large stimulus package, by the monetary authorities to try to revive growth through that. Be thehould not postshock impediments to growth as we saw before. That should help growth of cover mediumterm. Ultimately, that is something that is going to unwind the process of rates, but it will take a long time. Guy david, thank you very much indeed. It was interesting to hear the bank of england talk about the longterm negative effects of the virus. David page, head of microeconomics over at axa investment managers, thinking for your time. Next, we will talk with congressman greg walden, the ranking republican on the house energy committee, i had of tomorrows key vote in the house on that giant stimulus bill. Later in the hour, we will have an exclusive interview with ubs ceo. Manus cranny spoke to Sergio Ermotti about what he is seeing regarding opportunities in the markets. This is bloomberg. Vonnie live from new york, i am vonnie clean with a guy johnson in london. This is the european close on bloomberg markets. Now that the senate has approved the 2 trillion stimulus package, the next step is for the house and leader speaker pelosi. She said she hopes the bill is passed by noon tomorrow. Kevin cirilli joins us now. Great that was a interview with david westin and speaker pelosi. Now we are joined by congressman greg walden, a republican from oregon. The speaker is saying that by tomorrow, this vote will be across the finish line. Are you optimistic that there will be little to no opposition on this legislation . Rep. Walden i think everybody get thisds the need to help out to people who are filing for unemployment, businesses that are suffering, our communities that need help, First Responders that need the p. P. E. , we got to get vaccines out there come a invest in new testing and new cures, and all of that is wrapped up in this package. I think you will see an overwhelming vote for this. Certainly, we are troubled, when you are talking trillions to be spent, you have broken the bank, but in this has to happen. We have to get this done. We have never faced a contagion like this in the United States or across the globe. I think you will see this pass overwhelmingly, and we will begin to take a look at what needs to be done going forward. But this is a huge stimulus, but it is also a huge bridge and a big safety net. It is all three in one. Congressman, you are the Top Republican on the energy and commerce committee. What is in this legislation that relates to the energy sector, and what is being done to help refineries all over the country . Rep. Walden i think there was i wish there was a lot more in here. We had advocated to purchase oil while it was cheap and put it in the national stockpile. We could buy it at whatever it is now, 24 a barrel. We couldnt get it done. I think it made perfect business and economic sense for taxpayers. What we did get done is turn off selling oil which we bought at a high price for a low price. That is about the only energy provision. Our oil patch needs some help through this crisis as well. We could have done it and then it smartly for the taxpayers by investing in lowprice oil to going to the strategic reserve, which by the way, Congress Taps into every once in a while to selloff that high prices to find a need of government programs. We could have had a real win. Ere so that one fell on the cutting floor. Unfortunately. This just to follow up on , to press you on this, there is a lot of talk of about, in 60 days, there might be another round of stimulus. What are the parameters of the next round of stimulus, and what the hope to see included in those talks . Rep. Walden first we need to see how this plays out. Lets see where we are 30 days from now. Fundinghave the overall of the government for this fiscal year to get done as well. I think we have to look at supply chain vulnerability. I know my friend across the hashannah ae championed this as well. We have vulnerability for critical medicines and equipment. Moreld like to see outreach on broadband to our Rural Communities can actually take advantage of the important telehealth provisions we put in here. Kevin congressman, so glad you brought that into the conversation. In the past day or so, you pushed wireless broadband providers to make maximum amount of data available. What can wireless broadband providers, what do they have to do over the next week or so while 80 million americans shelter in place . Rep. Walden some of them have done this, at t does, and others are as well, lifting their data you to useing t your wifi hotspot at home unlimited. They are waiving fees and penalties. The carriers are coming together to do really positive things and work with the f. T. C. Has been terrific with his keep america connected plan. Here is a thing to understand, if everybody just has unlimited wifi cap sport at all, you are going to overload unlimited at all, you will overload the network. We have to get well we and other agreement we had to get huawe i out of our networks. We need to know where a countries not served by our broadband. In our state of oregon, you can learn online, it just doesnt count, because our schools are not set up to make sure every child has the materials and support. We are experiencing these big gaps which many of us knew were there for a long time, but we are expanding broadband, which is important. Kevin congressman walden, thank you for making time for us. Been busyt you have especially as it relates to the broadband issues and energy front as well. Guys, back to you. Guy thank you very much indeed, kevin cirilli, joining us from washington. 10 minutes to go until the european close. This is bloomberg. Vonnie live from new york, i am vonnie quinn, along with guy johnson from london. Time for your latest business flash. The big japanese automakers took a hit to their Credit Rating today. Moodys downgrading toyota, honda and nissan. This comes a day after smc cut ford to junk. Bonuses could drop 40 or more of across the financial industry this year. Johnson Johnson Associates says a perfect storm is taking shape. A global recession and broader industry shakeup will crash bonuses. Jp morgans equity derivatives theers are making a hole in pricing. Generated 1. 5 billion in revenue this year, almost all from equity markets in last years first quarter. It is a snapshot of the way the Coronavirus Crisis is shifting fortunes on wall street. That is your latest Bloomberg Business flash. Check and markets, it is a broadbased rally. Every major sector in the s p 500 is higher and for the most part, by several percentage points. The best performer is carnival. Occidental right after it. Jonesof course, the dow industrial average is up 4. 9 , the best performer today. Followed by nike after that outlook and earnings from nike. Home depot is up 8 as well. Nasdaq is up less than the others, 2. 6 . The vix is at a quieter 59 right now. Guy talk about carnival, it is one of the bestperforming stocks year in europe. The dax,se 100, and all up. The dax is lagging a little bit, but it is the travel stocks really surging. The most beaten up stocks are really bouncing back the most strongly. We are closing down the european markets here, but it looks like it has been another solid session. Are we starting to form a base, that is the key question a lot of people are trying to figure out. The last five days, the ftse 100 is up nearly 12 . 50. 5 x in germany is up over the last five days. It will be fascinating to see how we close out. Up the dax in germany is 15. 5 over the last five days. To secure is in talks a credit line worth more than 10 billion. To secure is in talks a credit line worth more than 10 billion. This is bloomberg. Berg. Good morning oh no, here comes the neighbor probably to brag about how amazing his Xfinity Customer Service is. Im mike, im so busy. Good thing xfinity has twohour appointment windows. They have night and weekend appointments too. Hes here. Bill . Karolyn . Nope no, just a couple of rocks. Download the my account app to manage your appointments making todays Xfinity Customer Service simple, easy, awesome. Ill pass. Royal standard on both sides of the atlantic. Airbus today, we see what is happening with boeing in the United States. Carnival up by 9 . Insulating novo is maintaining introduction. I want to mention as well, a huge move, vonnie, we are seeing in european bonds today on the back of the ecb decision. Very flushable pandemic emergency. The bond market an even bigger focus. Vonnie guys, thank you. I want to point to some of the asset moving, including the s p the s p 500 up 5 , and the 10 year yield staying in that range. Weakening below today, 99. 50 four. Obviously sterling and the euro, big beneficiaries there. The euro up 1. 3 . Sterling is back up to 1. 2 1 100 when 40. 121. 40. To whit, have a look at the offshore. After a very unusual fixing, a today. Ker lets get more about what is happening with ecb. In talks for the confidence lenders, what is happening with dividends. How dividends are going to be dealt with in this time of difficulty. Lets talk about the broader picture as well as what is happening in europe. There is a call taking place between leaders. We will get a Group Briefing later. Are certainly watching this story, incredibly carefully, because we find ourselves in a situation, once again, we have seen it before. It is the ecb that is having to do all the heavy lifting when it comes to the paneuropean approach. Every thing else is being handled on a government by government basis. All the risk is left with the most Vulnerable Countries spain, italy, greece. Vonnie it is so interesting. Both the u. S. And europe, we have seen formal central bankers and central banking heads way in. A couple weeks ago. We had john shaw we had jeanclaude trichet, and mari draghi. A lot of goodwill on this regard from central bank. Now to bloomberg exclusive. Investors and clients are we go to manus cranny. Investors managing the situation come in an effective way. We do see people taking opportunities. Come our point of view, if you look historically from risk rewards point of view, there is not many times where credit has been made constructively, and we see people taking advantage of that. But also i have to say that many clients have been very disciplined in speaking to their longterm asset allocations. To doill reevaluate how are preparing wide opportunities there. With stocks or situations or sectors particularly impacted. I see also clients starting to take opportunities and step in, buying some opportunities. To we are also trying understand work manus we are also trying to understand where we are in the bank and the bank system. Mustier saying is that a narrative, sergio, that makes sense on your assessment . Set aou look at ms. Ta letter . Sergio it is difficult for me to comment, but i would say i think it is quite legitimate and understandable to have such a debate at this point in time. End,f course on the other one has to the idiosyncratic situation of each single country, each single bank and order to make such an assessment. Of course, at this time it is very difficult to manage because of the stigma that you may or may not create around any actions you take around this topic. I am glad to see that we are extremely a very Strong Capital base. Also to toextremely support the economy. Ubs ceo, Sergio Ermotti speaking with manus cranny earlier this money. Lets get back to the ecb and whether or not the ecb is the only one capable of action. Here in europe on a paneuropean basis. European leaders once again seem to be divided on the issue of paneuropean bonds. Are talkingound, we euro bonds in the past. They seem to be taking decisive action. European leaders did the ring once again. We are joined on the phone by maria tadeo, joining us from brussels. I have seen this movie before. The leastends up with strong European Countries shouldering a huge burden, and it looks like we are going down that road again. There is going to be no paneuropean risktaking. This is a big problem for europe, it strikes me. I would sayis point two things. European leaders are on the call, at we have been here before. The idea of eurobonds floated in the past, it was during the euro crisis, at the height of the euro crisis. Thatthere were real fears europe could actually break up. Is a call,rue, there and what we understand is that so far there has been no agreement around this. There are a few things that have changed from then until now. One is of course the fact that the European Central bank yesterday, overnight, came out very strong, saying the new qe program will not be affected by the issue limit. That is huge. That is something all the traders i spoke to this morning said is a very good thing for italy, and on the short end of the curve is a good thing. Difficult, more there are countries that we know of that will tell you a credit line is no longer sufficient, and there is no incentive for a country like italy to tap into a credit line when you have the European Central bank and you do not want to take the political stigma as it is bailed out. That is a political situation. And the fact that you have in thelike macron, back day, who is saying i like the idea, why not explore it. Though, weoblem is end up in a situation where italy, greece, spain, portugal end up taking on a lot of debt once again. And once we get through this crisis, the Financial Markets turn around and go, you have got too much debt and we are going to penalize you for that. The ecb can probably take mitigating action, but nevertheless, it took do scope it took two years after the financial crisis back in 2007, 2008, and people are beginning to worry we could see that happen again. What are you hearing in brussels about how they can deal with this problem . Maria again, two things. When you pose that question in terms of are we going to see a rerun of the euro area debt crisis, youre breaking up because of coronavirus, at this point officials will tell you the situation is different, and the town has shifted over the past two weeks. The recession is unavoidable. That is clear. The bounceback could also be equally equipped and strong. Having said that, if you read our point from mario draghi yesterday, he also said as someone who knows very well, governments will have to get familiar with the idea that public debt is going to increase. There is also going to be questions about corporate debt. There is going to be questions about potentially right in our corporate debt, and the market could have again those questions about sustainability in the mediumterm. Having said that, what we are hearing from europe, the mood from europe, is at this point you have to protect the economy. You have to protect jobs, and that should be the priority. These countries do have the resources, but this is more of a political question in terms of do you want a signal that you are taking in more risksharing, or do you want to do a credit line . Do you want to provide that liquidity . That is something we should keep in mind. This is not the german saying we do not want to put the money forward, this is a question of how do you frame this. Now that the European Central bank has stepped think of anything that is not really it will look like vonnie you are saying there is no incentive to take the finance ministers or the leaders up on their offer of a credit line, right, maria . Maria yes. This is moving, it could change over the next 24 hours. I would not rule out that we do not get a statement from european leaders today because there is no agreement. At this point it is not a surprise, but there has been some relief because of the European Central bank yesterday. Vonnie maria tadeo, thank you for keeping up today on the latest moves. Look at the european markets, these are they final numbers in europe. We finished near session highs. We have seen some evidence of a thawing out of the credit market, that is good news. We have seen positive news coming out of the european bond market as well today. All of this painting a picture, a little more positive as we come toward the end of this week. What a week it has been. In terms of what comes next, we are, at the top of the hour, going to take to the air with a cable show. We are expecting a briefing in chancellor of the exchequer on how the selfemployed are going to be helped at this point in the u. K. A lot of criticism from the u. K. s Prism Program for helping businesses, far too complicated at this point. We will hear what the chancellor has to say on that shortly. This is bloomberg. Guy johnson in london. Even at torontos virus time, and massive loss of jobs, the Morgan Stanley is saying it will not cut its workforce this year. Latest, a great story. I am wondering if the headline is not that the Morgan Stanley ceo is telling the staff that a job this year is he saying they will lose layoffs next year . They will do layoffs next year . We have not seen a bank ceo make such a bold statement that they will not reduce their headcount this year. That is barring any performance or breach of conduct issues. We saw bank of america saying they would be hiring in their othersr business, following suit, and the word around the street, the question to james gorman going by the end of the year . Guy im assuming there is some signaling going on with the folks in washington, if there was any hint that banks would be laying people off, i imagine that would not go down particularly well. Particularly as the programs are being put in place. Effectively going to be disturbed at by the banks. They are the conduit. Banks start laying people off, that will not play well in d. C. Morgan stanley is a big investment bank. As opposed to a big consumer bank. Jp morgan, bank of america, citigroup will be looking closely at their headcount numbers at the end of the year. Vonnie this as 90 of Morgan Stanleys employees are working from home. Phenomenal how that has ramped up the last couple of weeks. Sonali basak is staying with us. Who stands to gain and who may lose from the 2 trillion stimulus package that the house will vote on tomorrow . Joining us via skype is charles read thed when you combination of what the house and senate wanted, what stands losersyou as winners and Corporate America wide as far as main street . I think with how well main street and Small Businesses will do out of this meeting, there is a meaningful allocation for those two parts of the country that need it. On the corporate side, one of the concerns that we have is while the half 1 billion for the bailouts, there will be an oversight. One of our concerns is who picks the winners and losers . In answer to your question, the clear winners will be the airlines, boeing, varying by partisan consensus. That they need to be rescued. And then i think the following, below that, the other priorities will be the hospital the hospitality hotels, restaurants, etc. I would add that the Auto Industry is a bipartisan support bipartisan priority. Once you get below that, it gets tricky for winners and losers, eating there is not complete but meaning there is not complete bipartisan by ends, for example, the shale industry. It gets trickier, and we are concerned about it. The other thing to mention is there is 1. 3 trillion from treasury asked for assistance or there is a mismatch between the amount needed and the amount allocated. A you said there is not only mismatch, but that you believe congress may look to a another round of stimulus. When we look at the losers of the current bill, where can we see money start to go, and which industries will be most heavily aid tog now for extra specific terms and industries . Charles i think we will see industries that do not get primera priority treatment in the first round, some of the industries, boeing, that i mentioned earlier. As the money starts to run out or takes longer, commerce will have to go back for a phase four. They know that. The leadership on both sides acknowledge that privately but also somewhat publicly. I think in the end we will need another 2 trillion, not just for Corporate America. It will be for main street and for Small Businesses. We have oncern that the fourth round is that while this phase three happened at work speed, it may not feel that way, but the way washington works, this was work speed. Getting to a forefront of stimulus will take much longer. The competing priorities between the democrats and republicans will be much more at play. There will be a bigger risk of delay in the next round. And i think in answer to your question, there are a number of companies and industries that may not have the luxury of that time. I think the shale industry is one that stands out most as not having enough time. Guy the bank of england today warned of longterm effects from the virus and its impact on the economy. A lot of people are anticipating that we get avshaped recovery, that the bounceback seems very strong. Do we have to call that into question . A lot of people are talking about this, and i am wondering if it doesnt become a reality, our people ready to find themselves in a different place . That a lot ofnk people, a lot of commentators are getting a bit ahead of themselves on a vshaped recovery. We may say that we may see a vshaped recovery in the Financial Markets, as they will discount a lot of the good news that will be coming up earlier. But in terms of economic recovery, or the economic fallout from this unprecedented Global Pandemic is going to take longer. Despite the unprecedented amounts of stimulus being thrown at this. There will be 5 million americans plus that will be laid off. There is no way they will all get rehired 2, 4, 5 months from now. I think we will see permanent changes, semipermanent changes, travel will be and consumption patterns. Travel will be affected longer, i think. I think the reality is that we are looking a three to five month prolonged downturn, and then a youshaped recovery. The actionk some of that is being taken in terms of sorting out small business, that is usually problematic in terms of the timeline. This as we need cash now. Myers, and our thanks to sonali basak. This is bloomberg. Guy visit the european lets get a market check now with kailey leinz. Kailey looking at the equity markets, you would never so we saw that we would never sink that we would never think we would see a it seems to be outweighing that. Were looking at the major averages hire between 4 and 5 , the third day in a row of gains, s p on its best three days since all the way back in 1933. The dow is actually up 20 on recent lows. That is the technical definition of a bull market. The bond proxies are outperforming utilities, leading the way as we see the 10year yield lower by six basis points. We are seeing stocks and bonds moving in the same direction. Vonnie thank you, kailey leinz with our market check. Theng up, ruth richards, ceo on the wild week that it was in credit markets. We will talk this locations and all sorts of interesting phenomenon in the markets. This is bloomberg. Lets get to first word news this afternoon and House Speaker nancy pelosi tells bloomberg she has no doubt whatsoever that stimulus bill will pass the house friday she says they will be finished by noon after predicting a lively debate. She tells bloomberg she hopes the next round of legislation will include funding for infrastructure in addition to money for state and local governments. The legislation was approved by the senate in a 960 vote wednesday. China is temporarily barring foreign nationals from entering the company the country to curb the spread of coronavirus. Domestic virus cases have dwindled in china, but it has to contend with reported infections from recent overseas arrivals. These individuals have accounted for the majority of chinas new cases for more than a week. I ran is banning travel ran is being iran is banning travel district or measures come after millions defied calls to stay indoors and went out to celebrate the persian new year. The president morning of a second surge