Transcripts For BLOOMBERG Bloomberg Markets Asia 20240713

We are looking at a contraction for the year between 1 and 4 . Looking at where china is, reality starting to bite, trading lower right now. Pmi front and center. Chinas economy has been damaged. A lot of the world still is shutting down. The downward revision in expectations may only be just beginning. Nikkei, lower by 4 . Jitters also there in the market. For globalmism governments to cushion the blow from the coronavirus outbreak. Lets flip the page, take a look at where we are in terms of the dollar. Easing a little. Theaussie below 60 to dollar. Is,ng a look at where crude down by 1. 5 there. Traders weighing the extent of against the 2 trillion stimulus package. The oil glut meaning we are running out of space to store. Yvonne things turning south now. It was after we saw global stocks register a rare back to back again on wednesday. Asia looking mixed. Japan seeing substantial pressure now. Lets get more context with david ingalls. Things are starting to turn a little to the downside right now. What are you watching . Dispersion is quite substantial. When we say mixed, it is not like 0. 5 . We are looking at 2 to 4 on either side. As far as liquidity is concerned, we are not out of the woods just yet. At crossooking currency basis swaps. Aboveially, the line is zero, then the demand is not as extreme as it once was. Other thing i would point out as well, markets are still reacting. To your point, it was bad data out of singapore as well as perhaps headlines coming out of hong kong as well. Plus the timing and the ability for the u. S. Government to execute that massive stimulus and get the money to where it matters. Japan is seeing some sharp losses today. What stands out to you there . David japan is interesting. You look at some of the heavier weighted stocks, seeing pressure. You have softbank. Back at moodys for cutting their debt rating as well. The olympics playing out as well. Downikkei getting pulled by various threads, if you will. What is important to remember about japan is that that is precisely what we will be talking about the next few weeks. Point, who is eating hot pot now with the virus going around in hong kong . That is going to play into the story as well. We are going to Start Talking about the credit default swaps and at least a perception that some of these Companies Might come into severe financial distress. That is something we are watching. A direct impact on what people are holding. That is one to watch as the earnings season continues to go on here. Oflinda lots to track, lots items on the macro agenda today. Give us the top three. David singapore, you mentioned that already. Quite a substantial contraction. I mention hong kong exports. Trade numbers are coming out. Limited little bitty to the market. That is one to watch. Cut mighta pboc rate be forthcoming. But perhaps the most important today will be the initial jobless claims out of the u. S. That is going to give the initial visualization of the shock of the economy there. The expectation is we are going to be well over a million. Goldman has an estimate of 2. 25 million. Canada actually recorded a million jobless claims last week. That is going to be one to watch. And obviously the scale of the response to offset that. Haslinda david ingles, thank you so much for that. Just want to bring you the latest on the trading happening in indonesia. The gti currently up more than 3 . The market has been under a lot of pressure. The rupiah among the worst performers in the world. Asking policymakers to do whatever they can. Now lets get the latest on the u. S. Stimulus package as Jodi Schneider has the latest developments. Where do things stand now . It looks like they have a final draft and they are hearing from people in the u. S. Senate and house that they expect a vote on this shortly in the next day. We expect something similar to that yesterday and there were still some wrangling that had to be worked out. Didntpublican senators like some of the unemployment provisions in the bill. It appears that it has worked out. Secretary mnuchin said he expects this to pass. The president said he would sign it as soon as it gets to his desk. Contains more than approximately 2 trillion in Cash Payments, tax cuts, tax deferrals, and assistance, particularly for small businesses. Mnuchin secretary saying the payments can get to americans in three weeks. Is that realistic . It probably is. Obviously this is a huge crisis in the u. S. Youve seen Unemployment Insurance lines. States pay Unemployment Insurance and people have not even been able to get into the phone lines and the websites. They are just crashing. There is a desperate need for this money. The Cash Payments of 1200 with 500 per child will go directly to families. For people who lost their jobs and who really need this money, it will be a lifeline. The u. S. Is pretty well set up to get these checks out when they need to. They have people filing information and it should be something they could do not overnight, but probably, the secretary set about three weeks, that is probably relatively realistic. Yvonne what is the latest on the spread of the virus in the u. S. . What areas appear especially vulnerable . Weve seen new york be really and epicenter and now neighboring new jersey is said to be a real concern. We are also seeing some other. Reas of the country louisiana, new orleans in particular. There is a spike in cases there. A spike in cases, a spike in the number of deaths, and a spreading of the virus. Some experts are saying it could be weeks, perhaps even months before these lines really flatten, but we are starting to see a number of areas where it has spiked. That greatly worries health officials. Saying Anthony Fauci was , prepare for multiple waves of infection. Jody, thank you. Lets look at the first word news. New zealand is facing its biggest economic decline on record with warnings gdp could contract as much as 10 . The Unemployment Rate jumping to levels not seen in almost 30 years. Coronavirus forces a nationwide lockdown. The infection has hampered tourism. Deadliest day its yet as the number of virus deaths surpassed those reported in china. Topped 3400. Se and italy has been severely hit. Germany approved Emergency Powers to tackle the crisis, setting aside constitutional debt limits and earmarking 170 billion of measures to protect the economy. Asian governments are struggling with the virus fallout. Australia fears a recession. Malaysia is giving people indoors at least through april 14. Thailand seeing its most severe contraction and now sees the economy shrinking by more than 5 . China is restarting services in the province where the coronavirus was first reported. Rail links are coming back a day after the government announced the lifting of lockdown in all but the epicenter city of wuhan. Longdistance buses are back on the road, taking workers back to their jobs as long as they have filled out forms seeking permission to travel. Of ahere are new warnings severe economic reaction to the delay of the tokyo olympics. Economists say the delay will wipe 18 billion from the economy. B. N. P. Paribas adds that the uncertainty means it is not clear if the gains the games will happen next year. Still ahead, more countries on lockdown as virus deaths top 20,000. But how much more punishment can markets withstand . We will dig into the economic and policy outlook in asia, next. Harris says wall streets crash was predictable and sees a new asset bubble on the horizon. Dont miss that discussion and our other great guests coming up later. This is bloomberg. Haslinda singapores gdp fell 10. 6 , contracting the most in a decade. Singapore is one of the first countries in asia to report gdp data as nations measure the Economic Impact of the coronavirus. Joining us now is economist deyi tan. But is a deep contraction, it is likely to get worse in the second quarter, right . Deyi right now the expectation is that year on year it will probably decelerate further. Expecting 6. 5 year on year. Covid cases in europe and the u. S. And that will weigh on the economy of singapore. Haslinda the question really is how much more the government can do. The second stimulus is expected. The government will dip into reserves. How big must the stimulus be . Think policy willfully offset the growth impact from what is caused by a Public Health challenge. But it can prevent things from getting worse, which is what a lot of Central Banks across asia is trying to do. Helping the most , giving taxtors rebates, and providing subsidies. I think a lot of these measures will continue to go on. But we dont expect this to drive growth. It will only prevent things from getting worse. Growth can only happen with the containment of the covid19 situation. Haslinda getting some lines coming through from the aide for Mitch Mcconnell, saying the senate is going to vote tonight on this virus stimulus bill. And therelot of talk has been a hold up due to these issues like unemployment, but it seems like the senate could vote tonight on this virus stimulus bill. Lets talk more about the stimulus measures. Are kind of bringing forward this meeting for next monday now. What moves we of could see from the central bank . Thats, we do expect is not unlike what other Central Banks in asia have done. Banks ineen several their policy meetings. We are expecting them to bring the appreciation to zero. At the same time, they will lower the midpoint on the policy to previous levels. Unprecedented. E yvonne you mentioned about how e. M. Asia itself is a victim to the picture we are seeing when it comes to this coronavirus outbreak. The dollar issue is one they have to contend with as well. They have ample reserves. They have current account surpluses. To what extent are they actually sheltered from liquidity issues . Deyi i think overall the situation for asia is probably still manageable. Has initially started as a Public Health challenge has led to a credit crunch. There will be some economies where the issue is not favorable. Some economies will see stress. But overall i dont think they are looking for an extended credit crunch situation. The Central Banks have been quite aggressive in terms of improving the funding situation. Covidant control the situation, but they can alleviate funding stress. They are also undertaking qe, putting into place funding, so all these have helped financial conditions improve since last week. The other silverlining for asia is that if you look at the dependence on credit markets, compared to europe and u. S. , asia generally is not as dependent. In china, 85 of lending is from banks. Only a smaller portion is from credit markets. Where there is dependence on credit markets, because of the experience from the asian generally, weis, are not expecting the credit crunch to hit the asia region at this time. Haslinda you mentioned the be ok. They said they will provide unlimited equality liquidity and also said it is not too late to call this qe. Was this a surprise move . Wouldnt say this is a surprise move. They announced measures to provide liquidity to the markets. On, they were also expanding intermediate lending. About korea, the thing is, from a conventional policy tools perspective, they dont have too much space left. Inflation is also low. Bok will have a challenge. The other result that they can rely on is unconventional on es like qe or rely before we let you go, just to touch on indonesia, the rupiah has been smacked and some say indonesia has been to slow in implementing stimulus. Your views on that . Deyi i think indonesia faces a challenge of needing to balance growth versus managing stability risks. Stimulusour point on is what is happening on the fiscal side. Is probably more effective compared to monetary policy. Indonesia, that is what has constrained them from doing more. The reason is how do you manage providing growth support . I think that is the delicate balance that indonesia policymakers are having to deal with now. Tan,e thank you, deyi joining us on the phone. Just want to bring you some live pictures out of beijing. The Chinese Government holding a News Conference about International Corporations when it comes to covid19. We havent seen any details so far, but perhaps china is going to be helping in this global fight. Perhaps they are leading that charge against some type of coordinated response. We will bring you some updates once we do see it. We will bring you the latest. This is bloomberg. Heres the latest business flash headlines. Softbank has lashed out at moodys after having it debt lowered by not just, accusing the agency of being biased. Moodys cut softbank just days after Masayoshi Son revealed a Program Designed to fund a massive share buyback. Moodys singled out the scale of the plan at a time of severe market risk. Netflix is reducing video quality in india, australia, and some latin american countries to meet surging demand. Netflix is the biggest driver of internet traffic in the world after youtube. And taking a look at where the markets are right now, asia mostly lower after the first backtoback increase in at least a month. This is bloomberg. We just heard from the China Foreign Ministry Vice minister speaking to the press. They are saying they are ready to work with other g20 countries on the virus. This is of course after we heard them lift restrictions in wuhan. The locked down there. Perhaps china is calling a victory when it comes to the containment measures have seen. Perhaps that could be modeled. Which we have seen in parts of italy, of course. China ready to step in and help out with aid. And bringing medical help to the rest of the world, as well. We were talking about the singapore about singapore grappling with the followup from the coronavirus. Gdp, falling at an annualized 10. 6 , far worse than median estimates. Wednesday, they reported 73 new virus infections. The single biggest daily spec. Official see 19 of the new infections are of people who traveled overseas. Macao found new cases, increasing the total number 230. Studios hollywood illustrate the locked on in india. They are warning it will hit the country hard. Deutsche bank says the economy is set to shrink next quarter. Periods gdp in the june could contract by 5 . India has not seen a contraction in at least two decades. Of classicalstate as been the first to lose leader from coronavirus. North Korea Remains insistent there are no cases of coronavirus in the country. They shut its borders two months ago. They say not a Single Person has tested positive since. State media has regulated , and kim jongun warned of the danger at the end of last month. Asia, mostly lower. We are seeing losses in japan. We are hearing from Mitch Mcconnell the aid will be signed tonight. All that is contributing to the losses. Comp,hai c coming days,n the it would help banks profitability and encouraged cheaper lending. India openednd how later today. They searched the most since may after thousand nine yesterday on the back of expectations of that. They close up 7 . It has been pretty volatile in india. Taking a look at where we are in terms of features, the s p futures, pointing to a lower open, those negotiations on the stimulus package are still in play. Yvonne the who has issued a rare criticism to the worlds response to the coronavirus pandemic, saying they waved the first opportunity to contained the infection. Governments to maintain locked on despite the latest for us. Go atrely hear that who its members like that. Go at its members like that. Why would they do so . Because look at the numbers. Seeingis still increasing numbers. 73 are now at 470,9 worldwide cases. More than half of the deaths, as well, are in italy and spain combined. 21,000 plus deaths are in those two countries alone. As all as the united states, they had weeks of head start to prepare. The who is saying, listen, we did not have things in place ready, the supply chains were not ready, the equipment procurement processes were not in place. This is what the director general set said, we squandered the first window of opportunity, the time to act was a month ago or two months ago. Criticized inghly those early days for not calling it a pandemic. They were cautious on doing so. We all know now with 470,000 cases, it is a global pandemic, but he says as well we are not running out of time just yet. Citing countries that have fewer than 100 reported cases. He wants the say economy and everything back up and running by easter, but the who says the last thing any country needs to do is reopen schools and businesses, only to close them again over the resurgence of cases. They have been reporting perhaps we could be hearing more tighter restrictions when it comes to social distancing. Maybe more details on the ban of rs and restaurants, as well. What can we expect it from the government . Tothis is a critical period make sure these new infections, singapore, we have singapore with a number of new cases as well, 73 new infections. When here in hong kong, they just had this outright ban pretty much on foreigners coming in. Who are not identity cardholders. They want restaurants and bars to stop having aggregations of people congregations of people. This is a difficult thing to do. There are so many people involved in the restaurant business. More than 200,000 is the estimate alan zeman indicated. With the uks doing is offering subsidies to these industries that rely on alcohol sales. You breakeven at best in the restaurant by not selling alcohol. Alcohol is where you get your profit. Im not going to predict what the government might come out and say. They already pretty much tightened up the borders. The rest has to go towards limiting social interaction. Stephen engle in hong kong, thank you for that. Of thee, the eminent end lockdown in the original virus epicenter is spurring investors into action. The resumption of movement in will hunt is seen as a potential outlet for other markets that have been disrupted by measures to contain the virus. Lets bring in our china correspondent, selina wang, in beijing. Which sectors are winning so far . Selina investors are getting excited that the lifting of the means the worst of the pandemic is over. They have been gradually adding consumer stock and becoming more optimistic that the Consumer Sector may be able to lead a Factor Economic recovery. Youre seeing that play out in discretionary spending, such as sports where, beer, automakers. They are getting automakers. People can buy these cars and micro workers camera dashcam returned to the factories. Workers can return to factories. Inyou take a look at stocks breweries, sports where makers wear makers,. These dips t buy yet. Yvonne President Trump said he will stop using the term chinese virus. Can this ease tension between beijing and washington . Selina it is another sign the two sides may be willing to deescalate the blame game. Change the not broader picture of the technological dispute these companies are mired in. Or this titfortat battle. If you look at trumps rhetoric, he has flipflopped a few times. Earlier, he has praised that she had praised xi jinping earlier, he had praised xi jinping for his efforts. Sparsely purposely calling it covid19. Now though trump is declining to use the phrase, the secretary of state, mike pompeo, did recently call it the wuhan virus. The background here was that we had this rare public dispute between two chinese Foreign Ministry folks, one floated the idea on twitter the virus had come from the u. S. Army. The Chinese Ambassador to the u. S. , saying that rumor is crazy. Geopolitical analysts say on both sides come other countries are trying to fulfill their own political agendas instead of deflecting blame. Yvonne selina wang, thank you. Coming up, promises of unlimited liquidity may helped cause the next big bubble. We hear from ceo, richard harris, coming up next. This is bloomberg. Yvonne u. S. Policymakers took a president action this week, unleashing an array of measures to keep the economy going. There is a 2. 2 trillion fiscal package sent to be voted on in the senate. We are still waiting for that vote. Market once again fuel an asset bubble . Joining us is richard harris. Always great to have you and always great to get your insight, especially with something that has abled that is abled call like that is a bold call like that. I dont think it is going to happen tomorrow. We may see another downlink. Biguse we have seen a chunk of good news with the announcement of the increased stimulus. After that, it takes time for that money to reach people. You have to think that these are extraordinary sums of money. You are looking at 2. 2 trillion from the u. S. . Another 1 trillion announced by germany. By the time you out of china and japan, you begin to see enormous stimulus to the global economy. Something in the order of bringing in another japan. It already exceeds the gdp of japan. You are looking at adding the worldss largest economy to money that will actually end up in the stock market. So you have to think that we are going to have inflation all over again. Doesnt the fed have to do something . With this insatiable demand we suffer the dollar, there is a sense that they need to do this, alleviate some of the stresses out there. Theres a bunch of reasons to bring the currency back down. I am not too sure it was the dollar. Governments are very concerned about a decrease in unemployment , and that is going to be a major issue. They decided to deal with this by trying to pump money into the economy, pump money into companies. That is true and that is a strategy, but you have to wonder, maybe the unemployment would have a better way other than throwing money at the and deal with all the consequences later on. Haslinda you talk about how trillions are being thrown in, but these are extraordinary times. In a time where we are seeing economies close down and in a time you would never really even times, we have Something Like 2. 3 billion people under lockdown. Unsustainable. I think that perhaps the narrative is going to move from the containment narrative, which china began with an has spread around the world, to may be saying perhaps we should have some herd immunity. This is what china is doing. Xi jinping said we have to get back to work. Maybe the relative lack of information about casualties coming out of china is an indication of that perhaps, we tod to go to work we need workct the vulnerable and toward herd immunity. If the policy change happens, we will see the market chu would up chew it up. Yvonne the we look at the market for any indication the crisis is over . Last week, we had this goldal situation of falling and bonds falling as well, which seemed to indicate people were basically selling but cash. What happened in the last few days is gold has started to take up, which is a positive sign that people are rushing around for cold, hard cash. Of course, that is part of the reason why other central mexico going to put liquidity into the economy Central Banks are going to put liquidity into the economy. I think normally, you see gold go up, bonds continue to depreciate while equity markets are going down. Mentionedchard, you longerterm, there is a risk of the fed overstepping are doing too much when it comes to liquidity. Im wondering, how soon can they get out of this . House and could the fed get off zero Interest Rates . If you look at overnight index swaps, they are pricing in funds such a zero for at least two years. It took seven years for the fed to get off zero after the gold financial crisis. Really take ons the idea that maybe every now and then, the world needs to go into recession. That we cant have money at zero all the time. Money has to cost something, otherwise we end up with a whole swath of Zombie Companies that dont particularly work when there is a downturn. We are going to have to get to some sort of state, and maybe this is time to clear out the kitchen sink. When money has to be priced properly. When we have to see a clear out of the economy. We are in a situation where capitalism is working again, with this massive nationalization of what has been happening, all we are going to see is governments continue to support the private sector. Yvonne back in february you send your top three ideas were long bond, gold, and stocks. Are you sticking to that . I think so. At the moment, it is difficult to sort of say change the strategy, because we dont really know where the markets are going. The best thing for most investors to do if you dont need the cash is to sit on your hands and waited out wait it out. I think looking further out, gold is still interesting. Especially because of the bubble. Equities, some of the interesting areas, farming, tech, all of these sort of things are probably where you should be. And even the bond market. Haslinda gold at 1600, currently down just a tad. Richard harris, thank you for your insight today. Plenty more to come, including some of asias biggest allies running for the drop in passengers. Details, just ahead. This is bloomberg. Not to a travel industry deep in trouble. Fleetss are using their to transport cargo, smartphones, even korean strawberries. We have a guest from singapore. Tell us more. For the past year years, ever since the Global Financial crisis, the increasing number an increasing number of airlines have used passenger planes to ,aul cargo, be it components fabric, textiles, smartphones, so 90 of their Passenger Capacity has basically left unable too sitting, be transported where it has to go to, so airlines are basically taking the proposition of using passenger planes now to haul all and now using passenger planes without any passengers. Supplies are in urgent need in many areas around the world. Haslinda obviously they had to do this or resort to Something Like this. Is it enough to offset the collapse in passenger operations . Obviously not. Its not going to be enough to really turn the fortunes around for these airlines. What this does is it does help generate revenue basically to offset some of the losses that we might be seeing. Whatever relief they can get, cash they can get right now at this point, is actually good for the airlines, and that is one of the reasons they are doing this, because it does help to offset it. Yvonne with learned as well when i came to the fiscal package that airlines could be part of it. Tell us more about that. How big a lifeline could that be for the industry . Basically, and what we have seen, it shows the government in the draft we have seen, it shows the government is looking at loans and cash index as well. That will entail some sort of conditions that might help airlines are not. That will be the decision or the air or not. That will be the decision of the airlines. Some have said this year alone, 52ines are set to lose billion in revenue because of the spread of the virus. The package is welcome. In what form, that would be up to the airlines themselves to ask. Yvonne staying in the aviation sector, investors welcome the stimulus bill. Boeing is helping the money helps boeing is helping the money helps offset the demand for travel. Coronavirus delivers a shock to the auto industry. Further. Ays it may cut global carmakers are being warned to prepare for a big drop of sales this year. Around 10 Million Units below january estimates. We are seeing here a mixed bag when it comes to risk assets. Indonesia, really outperforming after they came back from the holiday. The rest of the region, still mostly lower. Kospi, slightly positive. Seeing more signs of help come through. Contraction. Re was more to come. This is bloomberg. Haslinda it is almost 11 00. 8 30 a. M. In mumbai. Im haslinda amin. Yvonne im yvonne man. We are entering the less session here in hong kong. The u. S. Moves closer to a 2 trillion stimulus package. Mitch mcconnell says the senate will vote after a lastminute dispute was settled. Haslinda the World Health Organization says governments are wasting time, but china is getting back to work. Yvonne reports say china will do more to bolster the economy amid the virus. It may cut the hmart deposit rate to encourage banks to lend more money. Haslinda asia, looking pretty mixed. China down almost half a percent. Hearing in the u. S. , Mitch Mcconnell saying the deal could be signed sometime soon. The yuan, hovering at the seven level. The kospi up by 6 10 of 1 . Its flip the page and take a look at where we are in terms of lets flip the page and take a look at where we are in terms of the msci. If you can set of a contraction we are seeing in the economy, a contraction of more than 10 for the first quarter, some say the. Ontraction may accelerate not looking good. We are seeing the china comp higher by almost 7 . Playing catchup. Jci, of about 7 . Some say that the president has been too late in his stimulus. That could weigh on the economy going forward. Yvonne lets take a look at india futures. We will see how this plays out. We check checked if the last couple of times, we are seeing futures slightly higher. We size st stalled session yesterday. After hearing and was going to go to a 28day locked down. We did see the rupee was shot yesterday for holiday shut yesterday for holiday. Ing is calling for 80 against the dollar for the rupee. Hat could be a new record low eight basisds, down points, 630 right now. Lets get the latest on the stimulus package. Jodi schneider has the latest developments. Jodi Mitch Mcconnell and Chuck Schumer have said there will be a vote tonight, and there will be passage tonight. Nancy pelosi, the democratic leader of the house of representatives, the speaker, said it will go through the senate and President Trump will sign it. There was a fight about Unemployment Benefits on the senate side. Republican senators were concerned that the flat 600 in Unemployment Benefits would theyit some people and would be given more than they actually made, but they were persuaded to basically drop that fight. It will go through. Get an amendment on the bill. Looks like it will go through and it will pass this evening and go to the house. It is a 2 trillion package. A massive package. Be 1200 checks to individuals. 500 per child. There is help for small businesses. There is a tax deferrals for corporations as well. The 2 trillion price tag is quite massive come a it also comes down to the speed of which it can actually go to the american people. Mnuchin sayretary the payments could get to americans within three weeks. Jodi thats right. He is saying they will get them quickly. That is probably given the level of the crisis in the u. S. Both in economic terms and health terms. That probably can be done. They have everyones tax information. So this is probably likely to happen, and it is needed. We have seen state unemployment offices flooded. The websites have really been overwhelmed. People without their jobs have really been taking benefits. With the economy largely shut down, this has really become an economic crisis as well as a health one. What is the latest with the spread of the virus in the u. S. . Give us a sense of the areas which are most vulnerable. Jodi obviously, new york state remains an epicenter. Hospitals are starting to be very strained, not having the equipment they need. Retirede asked for Health Workers to come back to work, because they badly need them. We have seen the virus stretched out to neighboring new jersey. There has been a spike in cases there, and other parts of the country including louisiana, new orleans. While the curve seems to be flattening in some parts of the parts arend other spiking, nobody sees an end in sight in the growing number of cases or deaths in the u. S. In the coming weeks. Haslinda Jodi Schneider, thank you for that. The who has issued rare criticism of the worlds response to the coronavirus pandemic, saying countries wasted the first window of opportunity to contain the infection. The organization is urging governments to maintain lockdowns despite the cost. Stephen has the latest. Not surprising. We heard were seeing a spike in cases. Thats right. The World Health Organization is out saying stop wasting critical time. They did have a window of opportunity. Countries around the world after theafrican initially, with spread, we have no 470,973 confirmed cases according to the Johns Hopkins resource website. Also, 21,152 deaths. More than half of those i might add, coming from italy and spain. Two epicenters in europe that really rubbed it many weeks after we knew what was happening in china. This is the criticism coming from the world organization. Which by the way has been criticize itself for an utterly are degrading for not earlier declaring a global pandemic. But there is a silver lining. There is still time to act. They say there is 150 jurisdictions or countries with 100 or fewer infections right now. So there is still time to act. The last thing one country needs is to reopen schools and businesses, only to close them again over a resurgence of cases. That is what we are seeing in places like singapore and hong kong. Have been imported cases and clusters of cases in japan, as well. As welland we heard that perhaps we could be hearing more restrictions on social distancing. We have already seen the likes of alcohol sales being banned and restaurants and bars in hong kong. With as well, a country lower amount of cases, they are also ramping up more measures. Youre seeing big metropolises in asia, tokyo, they are asking people not to go out this weekend even though the weather is warm and there is Cherry Blossom viewing. 41 new cases reported yesterday. They have the most in japan at 212 cases right now. Also 73 , fractions on wednesday. They have some social distancing was. On wednesday. Ns they have some social distancing laws. Hong kong is reporting new directives could come from the government to limit the size of crowds. They have already blocked foreigners from coming in. Those without a hong kong id card. They have proposed banning alcohol sales at pubs and restaurants. That has been highly criticized by the industry, of course, which relies on alcohol for their revenue. You dont make money in a restaurant by selling food, you do it with alcohol. In hongn 200,000 people kong tied to the food and beverage industry, which suffered its first revenue for your loss last year after the sarssts since the outbreak. We could see more clarification on the ban of alcohol, which even cabinet members have been criticizing. That is not the way to do it. The way to do it is like other jurisdictions have been doing, like germany, you cannot have a crowd of more than two people in germany, but limit is numbers. It is tough in a city like hong kong. Is theis a most densely populated place on the planet. But banning alcohol, im not sure that is the right way. Yvonne stephen engle, thank you. Joining us from hong kong. Growth in singapore set to contract by 4 this year. Thenation grapples with fallout from the coronavirus. The latest that it shows gdp far worse than the median estimates, set to deliver a second stimulus package later. Wednesday, reported 73 new virus infections. Their single daily biggest bike. There are warnings gdp could contract as much as 10 and the Unemployment Rate jumping to levels not seen in almost 30 years. Those are the estimates from bank in new zealand bank of new zealand. The infection has hammered tourism. Spain suffered its deadliest day yet as the number of virus deaths surpassed those reported in china. Fatalities rose and topped 3400. Italy has been severely hit. The death rate has dropped slightly in the past 24 hours. Germany approved Emergency Powers to tackle the crisis, setting aside constitutional debt limits and earmarking 170 billion of measures to protect the economy. Haslinda there are new warnings of a severe economic reaction to delaying the tokyo olympics. It will hit consumer sentiment, leading to recession and rising unemployment. Economist say the delay will wipe 18 billion from the economy. B. N. P. Paribas adds that the uncertainty means it is not clear if the games will happen next year. North Korea Remains insistent that there are no cases of the coronavirus in the country. The reclusive nation shut its borders to months ago and now says a person has tested no person has tested positive since. Warned of the danger at the end of last week. Plenty more to come on the next show. We will be speaking on the u. S. Avoiding a recession. This is bloomberg. Haslinda welcome back. You are watching Bloomberg Markets asia. A pretty mixed session for the first time in four weeks. Our next guest is covering the loss ground in the first part of the second half of the year. Max bondurri, founder and ceo at sgmc capital. Gdp is getting , tell us about your optimism. Are optimism is on the mediumterm. Shortterm, there could be the first earnings announcement, from Global Companies and justre probably going to put it out and limit on the virus. Basically, that is when we think we are going to have the recess in terms of valuations. But around that time, we hopefully will see the peak in terms of iris cases across cases in europe, hopefully. From that point in time, we think the recovery could be relatively quick. Lasts one or this two months, maximum. That is the best case. If that does materialize, obviously we are going to be in therapid Recovery First half of the second half of this year. Rapidlylly recovering half of the ground we lost since then. In the shortterm, we might be looking at the recent lows. Haslinda who will get to the bottom first, max . Will he be asia, the u. S. , europe . Probably asia. Asia because of the simple reason that the virus impact has already occurred. We have seen cases rising, but that is mostly because of people coming back from europe and other parts of the world spreading the virus again a little bit. If you look at the chinese stock exchange, one of the bestperforming year to date. Europehat, you see bottoming before the u. S. Assuming that the fiscal packages we expect will be implemented will be done relatively quickly. And probably the u. S. Will come at a later stage, because they are starting to feel the impact now. Yvonne you mentioned the fiscal stimulus. We have been waiting for it for days now. Do you think that is what is needed to put a floor on stocks now . Usefulill be definitely to finding a shortterm floor over the next few trading sessions. That is already fully priced into the market. Ist the fiscal stimulus coming and is happening. But of course, then people are going to be looking at the first earnings announcement. That is really one the market might correct a bit more when the market my correct a bit more. Thanks to the Massive Action of the global Central Banks and governments, that will help in not allowing the market to this market crash to continue further. We dont think we are at the final bottom yet. Yvonne the data is looking pretty dire. The singapore Growth Numbers today seemed to show that perhaps we could be seeing worst things to come. In terms of the impact on earnings, do you think the market fully discounted the earnings impact yet . Not fully. What we think is that they are pricing in a big recession in europe, pricing in a relatively recession in the u. S. , and one in asia. Not everything is priced in yet. It is materialize in, we will be guided by and Forward Guidance we will be seeing over the next few weeks. If we say of the situation for two or three months since it started, it is going to a loan out many of the s p 500 companies to go into control. The Financial System is likely not to be as intensive as many people now fear. To the downside. If the virus persists, we are going to see lower evaluation across the board. Second, max. On a we are getting live pictures out of the sea. We are learning the u. S. Senate is beginning a vote on the record 2 trillion stimulus bill. It took a couple of days. There was a dispute over thatloyment benefits seems to be talked about. At least now, people are starting to vote. If it does past 10, it gets to the house tomorrow, then they pass it. If it does, it gets to the office of President Trump. We will wait for those votes to kick in and bring you the latest. Once they do pass it. That is the latest out of the sea right now. Lets bring in max from singapore. He talked about deploying cash. How would you put money to work at the moment . Infractions. Obviously dont do everything at the same time. In fractions. A beasley, dont do everything at the same time. Obviously, dont do everything at the same time. Strong companies with fundamentals and strong Balance Sheets and the potential of good growth once all of this is taken care of. Tech companies are one of the big recipients of cash that we microsoft,estors, google, all of those are actually going to do extremely well in the current environment. Even their environment after coronavirus the environment after coronavirus, you are still going to see the changes a little bit. Because it isrse, likely to bottom earlier, there are some valuations that are extremely attractive both in the energy space, but also looking at some of the tech names in europe. Those are likely to do well. Once again, do it cautiously. Take advantage of volatility. The privilege of adding risk, take advantage and take it we a week week by week. Haslinda max, thank you so much for that. Max bondurri, founder and ceo at sgmc capital. Speaking to us while being quarantined right now. We are still monitoring the senate vote on the u. S. Stimulus bill. You are looking at live pictures right now. The senate has begun to vote on the record 2 trillion stimulus bill. Another headline to tell you about, this is data from Johns Hopkins. The was coronavirus death toll has passed 1000. Were seeing an escalation in the numbers for that. Youre looking at live pictures again of the senate. On thell be voting record 2 trillion stimulus bill. More to come. This is bloomberg. Lets do i check of the a quick check of the business flash headlines. Softbank has lashed out at moodys after having its debt lowered by notches, accusing the agency of being biased in creating misunderstanding. Moodys cut softbank just days after Masayoshi Son revealed a Program Designed to fund a massive share buyback. Moodys singled out the scale of the plan at a time of severe market risk. This company has procured 10 million antivirus masks and will donate them to the medical community in the u. S. Those for the work they have been doing. Cook added apple has been able to use the Global Supply chain to find the equipment the u. S. Needs. Lets watch what goes on on the senate floor and is he right now. Those votes, still coming in from the u. S. Senate, which has begun voting on the record 2 trillion stimulus bill. Cash handouts, jobless benefits. This is a massive stimulus package, the biggest we have bigger than what we saw during the Global Financial crisis. There were disputes earlier about the Unemployment Benefits. Came toe seeing when it these provisions, they were perhaps too good and encourage people not to work. They would get more money in the benefits than actually making it on the job. Votes, trickling in, of course. It will head to the house tomorrow before heading to President Trumps desk for its signature. We will keep you updated. U. S. Futures, lower. We will take you through markets and india open, coming up. The india open, coming up. This is bloomberg. Shouldnt you pay less when you use less data . Now you can. Because Xfinity Mobile gives you more flexible data. You can choose to share data between lines, mix with unlimited, or switch it up at any time. All on the most reliable wireless network. Which means you can save money without compromising on coverage. Get more flexible data, the most reliable network, and more savings. Plus, get 300 off when you buy a new Samsung Galaxy s20 ultra. Thats simple. Easy. Awesome. Call, click or visit a store today. Yvonne you are looking at live pictures of the u. S. Senate which voted on a trillion dollar aid bill. This agreement of unemployment good, being seen as too encouraging more to go without work. Earlier, we heard from stephen speculationmissing from senators. He wanted the amendment to the stimulus package. Vote on that amendment has already taken place. The senate has voted to pass a trillion dollar stimulus bill that vote is still ongoing. China is restarting services in the province where the coronavirus was first reported. The government announced lifting of the lockdown in all but the , which must wait two more weeks. Backdistance buses are taking Migrant Workers to their jobs, as long as they have permission. Asian governments are struggling with the virus. Government is dealing with he is struggling with the virus and has had a contraction. It sees the economy shrinking by more than 5 versus an initial projection of 3 . Hong kong is bracing for a new wave of infections with 24 cases reported on wednesday. Officials say the infections are among people who have traveled back to the city from overseas. It brings the total cases to over 400. Macau has found five new cases in the last day, tripling the numbers. The european state of kosovo has acome the first to lose victim to the virus. Had ordered a curfew and ,anned public gatherings defying the president s call for a national emergency. Lets look at the markets. The big headline today is that they do have the votes to pass this record stimulus bill in the u. S. Once we do official voting and all of the votes have we are seeing a little bit of Market Movement when it comes to u. S. Futures but we are still headed lower by about 1 . We are seeing a little bit of marketthe dollar g steve now that we know we are getting closer to the low being passed. Dow futures are still down and u. S. Yields are still rallying here. We are watching some of the stocks as well. We are seeing japan come back from the lunch break and extend the losses to more than 4 . Singapore is more off the lows of the contraction and the ftse is down by. 8 . The hang seng is down 170 points. Markets are the key today. Looks like we could continue that today. The rupee will be resuming trade today and we will see if we test those record lows once again. India at risk of a recession now lets get more market context with our coanchor. Lots of drama in the market. Why is japan important to watch . There is the olympic story we are tracking. Its 820 points, 4. 2 down. The makeup of the movers here is representative of key themes to watch over a couple weeks. Consumption is one that will get hit quite badly. We have singapore gdp numbers down as well. Floor is on the uniqlo is on the floor. That takes me to the softbank story. They said there were concerns over the debt load of softbank. We knew this before this essentially took place. It had downgraded the softbank Credit Rating two notches as well and we know they are downgrade. These are some of the things we will be tracking as Companies Come out and give you profit warnings. The next natural step would be to look at whether they can actually afford the debt and what price. Softbank is, to others, has massive gold and can liquidate. Reports suggesting the pboc may cut by the rate, will it help . We know they have not moved on that rate for four or five years. They moved on the deposit and the benchmark lending rate. The pboc might be looking at moving a guy as well and it could come in the next few days. Dont be surprised if they dont. But instead of just adding stimulus, it gives incentives to lower their rates. Bank margins are just getting squeezed. The rate has actually come down points while the deposit rates have remained the same. It does make economic sense poie deposit and we could see it happen quite soon. What are you watching . Kong released trade numbers later today. Still lines coming out of central bank and the korea is coming out in different ways. Korea is continuing to flush the markets with liquidity. And on top of that, is something we dont need to spend a lot of time on but initial jobless claims the u. S. Are arguably the most important data point to watch. That is going to show you the scale and scope of this economic shop we are looking at. Theyre looking at the other forecasts coming through and its probably going to be a very low number. We will see what kind of sticker shock or we get. Votes in the sea are still ongoing on the senate floor. This record trillion dollars stimulus package, it looks like they have it on have enough votes to get it passed. There were disputes about Unemployment Benefits, but this seems to be going through. The key part is how quickly can this come to the people . Was saying its likely we can get those Cash Payments in about three weeks or so and it certainly will help. From jobless payments to bailouts for the airlines is something the industry is looking for. But this is unprecedented. In terms of dollars, it is the biggest package we have seen in the u. S. This will be up for approval before being put up on President Trump desk. Thousands andsee the death in the u. S. We continue to see the number of cases widen and spread in new york and new jersey. Is also worried about the southern hemisphere. As sudden banks revised qe they are increasingly looking for the bank of japan message at bond yields. Curran,ing in enda joining us now. This took a leaf out of japans playbook. Why . All of the Central Banks are being forced down the same path. Its our first recession since 1991 and Central Banks have had to go into the world of they arex policy matching the benchmark rate and what japan did. Japan moved away from targeting a quantity of bond purchases which work targeting the yield curve. You can keep the target where you want to at the front end of the curve without having to go into the bondbuying spree. It is certainly a great relief. Thank you so much for that. And we are counting down to the opening of the session in india. India stocks have surged the most since may of 2009. They close up 7 . India stocks havefutures are tet now. The economy is headed for a recession, some say erin this is bloomberg. Some say. This is bloomberg. Indias threeweek lockdown a its billion population is is the widest step taken by any government so far. Lets get you an update of the situation. How are the numbers looking in india . Are 606atest numbers impacted by the coronavirus. It s say coronavirus say india is not testing widely enough to these numbers may not be accurate. But most say india lockdown early enough in the lockdown early enough that it is within authorities controls. As to how the lockdown is across the country, theres a lot of confusion stemming from the potential services. The stock markets are working fine in the Financial Markets are open and operating. ,upplies are running short theyre not letting people to the markets. But supplies are a problem, definitely. Theyre saying theyre not getting the potential for us to produce gloves at thats something parties need to look into urgently. Apart from that, another major issue would be indias informal labor force. These are millions of Young Indians earning little wages. They do it to support themselves and their families, and if the country is in lockdown, then they really needed to ensure they can provide food for their kids. That something that would be a problem for the government going forward. Getting those across would be something government would need to be looking at constantly. Indian Economic Data could also be affected. Jeanette rodriguez, thank you for that. Markets have just opened up, lets get right to mumbai, where we are standing by to take us through what to expect. Good morning. A sigh of relief and markets are just opening. Got this contract which expires a good amount. There are a lot of shops sitting in the system. Open at levels above nearly 40 points. The financials, which bounceback i think this is a need stop right now, and for the broader markets, it is a positive opening. , the incessant selling to asian equities in the last few sessions has been coming down and they have been coming a lot of positions on the futures side. You. E thank our next guest expects market dislocation continue in the shortterm. Bring in our investor lets bring in an investor from it seems like news of this lockdown was actually welcome news to investors why . I want to wish everyone healthy times ahead. Healthyveryone is during this lockdown. Then, we can all think about how wealth and wealth can be generated. But to give you perspective , thisthe spanish flow daily virus sequencing happened very quickly. We have already started human trials across the world. People are testing out and its antidotes. It means a lot of the public will be affected by this and the Indian Economy was reeling under a slowdown. So it is important to understand how businesses would be impacted by this dislocation the tapping dislocation that is happening. Has said it could be a new hot zone when it comes to these infections. Is the question went to start buying . Let me put this in perspective. Let me characterize these businesses into three types. Category a which is a business with high cash flow, low debt, assetlight. Those are the businesses with Consumer Staples and i. T. For it. Instants. Instance. Then you have Asset Classes with high debt Like Airlines and commodity businesses. Those would be most impacted during this time where we have a shut down. The moderate businesses would be in between. Its important to understand where one should look at which businesses and which businesses will be able to weather the storm better. A second. We are seeing that the u. S. Senate passed that record stimulus bill in the senate. Its close to midnight there. Late hours there, they finally got this through. Disputes seem to have been worked out and this bill now heads to the house. Certainly, it seems like the market has already priced this in. U. S. Futures are still down from. 6 . The dollar is losing steam, but not a whole lot as well. Lets bring back in our guest. We talk about the potential in the indian market, but we have seen a record exit amounting to about 6 billion in march alone. Have we seen the last of it . We have to see where they will find comfort. They are looking at their own home markets right now. Hopefully, they would find some easing of the liquidity pressures to run out of emerging markets. For us, we still need to assess the impact that businesses will have because of the virus spread. I want to touch on the indian ruby. Rupee. The exchange on rate and the implications . Whenever money is flowing out, the rupee will be under pressure. But again, these are all shortterm impacts. On,eed to keep an eye hopefully, we will be in a better place a year from now. So over the next 13 years, we will get out of this. Its hard to say at this point in time but yeah, there is pressure and we continue to see that in the shortterm. Like, initially when initially, thee, meltdown earlier this week happened so fast. Its ratcheting down the earnings downgrade. At where the analyst target price is about you see this huge gap between targets and the reality. Is there a sense that we needed to see further downgrade, or is there a sense of mispricing it . When we have been doing analysis over the last 34 weeks , obviously, a 21 day lockdown means there is no revenue. Whether the 21 days continue and people start feeling better , then we canut control the virus to a certain extent. Yes, from our analysis and understanding and the businesses we look at, we are expecting 1025 earnings. Market has fallen only we since its peak, so are seeing the markets factoring in this impact or not . The virusdepends on and how businesses react during this time. Thank you so much for that. Taking a quick look at the markets, jumping them up indonesia is jumping the most since 2008. It was in a holiday when the rest of asia surged yesterday. They are jumping the most since 2008. It is down off of its lows on the back of the contraction in gdp numbers. Drug manufacturers in china may have cut production by as much concerns thatg much needed could be in short supply. The malaria drug has seen a round of supplies, it in such that india has banned exports. We are in mumbai. Why did india bar exports of this drug . India is worried about its own supply. Population,massive and if the disease takes off, that could be a real problem. The medical body here has already recommended frontline take it as aorkers prophylactic as they are treating and interacting with covid19 patients. So on the expectation there will be more patients, doctors would need more of this drug to take. They have stopped domestic supplies from going abroad. A lot of debate about this. Does this drug actually work in treating the coronavirus . Theres a lot of debate about this. Is, its early days on all sides. There was one Clinical Study of 40 coronavirus patients which did show the effectiveness of clean thend helping virus from peoples systems, but it was only six people who shove the effect. Who showed that affect. But there was another study in china that showed no effect on patients. In fact, one patient who was given the virus progressed to a more severe case. To figurearly days out if this drug is actually effective. Will there be shortages, do you think . I have actually heard that, in south america, there have already been shortages of this drug among patients. Otheralso prescribed for conditions, such as preventing malaria. As the worlds biggest suppliers , they are based in india. Its an Indian Company and most of the worlds capacities here. Spoke to the head of the Largest Company that makes this says they are going to work with the government to increase capacity and then we are getting into the rest of the world. All right. Check on theick markets and focus on the u. S. Side of things the senate did pass that trillion dollar fiscal stimulus package. Seeas unanimous and we did futures off the lows. A lot of questions as to whether this has been priced in. Out as see if this plays the rest of the asian region. U. S. Stocks are back up to the session highs. Things are turning more positive. Thats it from Bloomberg Markets asia. Daybreak middle east is next. The markets are turning upward. This is bloomberg. The following is a paid program. The opinions and views expressed do not reflect those of bloomberg lp, its affiliates, or its employees. The following is a paid presentation brought to you by rare collectibles tv. After four devastating years of intense and deadly battling, the allied powers of the united states, france, and england had prevailed over the central powers, germany, austria, hungary, and the