Stimulus. Is there fiscal stimulus in the United Kingdom . Francine there is fiscal stimulus. One of the first things we covered a couple of weeks ago was this treasury and bank of england acting together. The u. K. Probably has to do more, but they were at the forefront of it and they acted in a coordinated action of fiscal and lending to businesses. The loans and credit lines will make a big difference but it depends on when the economy gets back on its feet and when people start going back to work. You put cash into businesses and suspend payments, but at some point people have to go back to work. Tom the president talking of back to work near easter, or part of work part of america back to easter. Gdp for the stimulus and the United States commitment is a huge 5 of gdp and even up to package. Trillion a 2 trillion package. The Trump Administration and u. S. Senate agreeing on the rescue package calling for almost 2 trillion in spending to boost the economy. Deal. Last, we have a after days of intense discussions, the senate has reached a bipartisan agreement on a historic relief package for this pandemic that will rush resources onto the front lines of our Nations Health care fight and inject trillions of economy to help american workers, Small Businesses, and industries make it through this disruption. Viviana the senate is expected to vote. It still has to pass in the house. Inpatient u. S. Business leaders have an economic shutdown they are concerned about and they have Donald Trumps ear, who wants to open the country back up by easter. Are thend West Virginia latest to order residents to stay at home. In the u. K. , the British Government plans to close parliament in the latest attempt to slow the coronavirus. They were scheduled to take an easter break. Global news 24 hours a day, on air and quicktake on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. I am viviana hurtado. This is bloomberg. Tom thank you so much. Sleepless in washington, Kevin Cirilli joins us, lots to talk about, about this legislation we saw in washington. Americans will get some form of individual check in the mail. Carry that forward to the mystery of this deal and this dangerous phrase Small Business. How small does Small Business have to be to get assistance . Different,y grant is but that has been a debate on the Senate Banking and house committees for years. 500 billion dollars of this package will allow for there to companies. D aid to 350 billion will go to small and mediumsized businesses and there is a different sound between loans and grants, something Small Business communities want to see 0 interest on federally backed guarantees and a grant. That is something i am told by sources working on the bill that was worked on until the final minutes of this. Tom well said. This is really important. If i look across Team Surveillance globally and we are all going to get a 1200 check, i dont see that. If i have if i am a Small Business and i have a gross of 3 million and i am netting 1. 2 million and i have taxes, do you have any idea how big the check is in the mail . Of thathe employees Small Business will likely get that 1200 or 2400 dollars plus the 500 for child. This has crippled the economic anxiety around the country. This has been what has grabbed hold and attention because the ceos and Business Leaders of the example you just gave are having to decide unthinkable decisions, to keep folks on the payroll or lay them off. That is where folks like senator mark warner pushed to have a new price for banks. They said a loan is not good enough for Small Business owners. Forget about wall street. It is Small Businesses that will be impacted and it is not good enough to get a loan with a low interest rate. It has to be a grant. Windowixmonth period where they could get a grant and it is an incentive not to lay off these workers, because if you can deal with this for six months, here is a grant, keep folks on your payroll. Dont lay them off or furlough them, and we will get through this. The question is whether lawmakers and policymakers can communicate that down to the local level. Washington bureaucracy is already difficult to read ough so it is a difficult directing people in the administration and educating congress to get this done fast so they dont have to lay people off. Francine i think there was another bill last week about all americans having paid sick leave, food assistance, and free coronavirus testing. Has that been implemented . Kevin that message has reached everyone in terms of pretesting, two weeks of sick leave, and everyone staying home. The folks implementing that are not lawmakers. In terms of paid sick leave, it is their employers so that is where this massive form of education in realtime. Business leaders that the csuite level cannot use the playbook of the prepandemic. There are some other tools to combat this. Massive, massive agreement between democrats and republicans. Republicans. Now the hard work of implementing it begins. Tom one final question very quickly, and i assume we will get another to our pref press briefing. Will we get back to work by easter . Will Kevin Cirilli work an honest eight hours on april 12 . Kevin no. I will not predict, i will just report. There is a divide between what President Trump and medical officials are saying as it relates to the coronavirus, so im taking it day by day as everyone else. Tom Kevin Cirilli with a five hour workday today, our chief washington correspondent. Equities, bonds, currencies, commodities, after the historic lift yesterday, i am looking at currencies and oil. As with our oil article of the day out on twitter. Physical delivery of oil is different than the Financial Market calculation of oil, and it is way below what you see for west texas intermediate and brent. Right now, we are thrilled to bring you christopher verrone, the number one guy on the street in trend based chart analysis. He knows catching a knife in the dark is a hazardous exercise for wall street. Have we reached bottom . Are there indicators the knife has hit the ground and you can get back on a rising trend . Christopher i would make two points. This is a historic, oversold condition. The s p has only been this far below its 200 Day Moving Average two times in history. You are starting to see the sentiment data flip as well. We got the latest bullbear survey and there are more bears than bulls in that survey. We have the sentiment streams, the pricing streams, and something important happened over the last five or six days. Even though the s p was grinding lower, fewer and fewer stocks are making 52week lows and those of the positive diversions you want to see in the area code of some tradable bond. We got the response yesterday. Tom i look at the fundamental side. Says ignore the ita ciber maneyv and says get on board the sayscials subramanian get on board the financials. Do i want to go value hunting right now . Arestopher the leaders still very much the leaders. Tech and health care were both good going into this and are good and will be good on the other side. Semis madee new new movement this week. As far as the financials go, financials coming out of this event will look different than the financials coming out of 2008 2009. Then, the financials cooked up the government as a shareholder and if you are looking for leadership you never want the government as a shareholder. I like the prospect of on the others of the tech and health care trade, owning some banks as well. They are better positioned to be a secular leader on the others of this than they were in 2008 2009. Francine this is on the assumption that it is a vshaped recovery or the lockdown is how long . Christopher as we have been telling our clients, anyone who says they know is lying. This is an unknown that we have not seen before, but what we know is when the fundamental gets thrown out the window, all you have is price, so using the leadership data and the relative data to understand what groups or sectors are coming out as leaders will be essential. We are encouraged to see stuff tech and health care to outperform. I think it is a good longterm message, very different than march of 2000. Techhole market went with and tech never recovered for eight or nine years, a different story from right now. Francine what do you do with streaming services . Are they the real value now as people join more . Christopher we put out two different baskets, the stayathome basket of stocks, the streaming services and video games and amazon and alibaba and those have been tremendous out performers. About a week ago, we put out the asia reopening for business index, a look at the stocks in japan and hong kong with lots of exposure to large gatherings or crowds. Bottomed 10 to 15 days ago, so the japanese and macau stocks, you are starting to see improvement in what got hit hardest and first. Looking at that for signal for a message on Risk Appetite will be important. Tom christopher verrone, cannot say enough about his effort in trend based technical analysis. Without question, as we spoke to ingela rest mucin rasmuss yesterday, peter hotez will join us from baylor university, one of the leaders on variola g and epidemiology. Virology and dme allergy. Epidemiology. This is bloomberg. Bloomberg surveillance, tom keene in new york, Francine Lacqua in london. We are working in a lockdown london and a lockdown in new york. Thank you for listening on our radio product and all of our Digital Products including sirius xm and on television, tv. We are thrilled to bring that to you on the bloomberg. Many of you logged on to the terminal through your cell phones. With us now is christopher verrone. Gold is to the moon. Is there a technical construction to gold right now or is it indeterminate . Christopher it is very determinate and the answer is higher, and i suspect we will see new alltime highs in gold not before long. If you look at gold and many other currencies whether it is yen or aussie or cabs or euro, gold made alltime highs. We have to look at gold in an uptrend. It is outperforming equities. 15 , stockst 14 or up 11 or 12 , so on the beta rally gold has outperformed. Is gold telling us after there is an us inflation problem longerterm . We are seeing that in the stabilization of the breakeven rates as well. Francine what do you do with treasuries . Do treasuries go negative . Christopher i dont think they do, but here is what is important. If you look historically at the prior announcements of quantitative easing in october of 2008, 2010, and 2012, the announcement of qe put the for about bond yields six to 12 months and put the highend in defensive groups. Utilities and staples tended to underperform. That is in line with what we have seen the last four or five days. Japanese yields have gone up. Inventedand japan deflation and bond yields are not making lows. That seems strange. Tom what are you seeing in the faang stocks . What is their technical construction . Christopher they are still leaders and as we said last week , the leaders are still leaders. A lot of these names are still 20 bove the December December 2019 lows, and they are outperforming. Google and netflix standout, and microsoft longerterm is in an uptrend. Tom christopher verrone, thank you for a generous part of this halfhour. It is the most interesting new york city. It is absolutely stunning, this distance you can see in the new clearer air of new york. It is just extraordinary, the miles and miles that you can see across new york and in the tristate area as well. You can see tv if you are on the bloomberg terminal, the quickest way to get to our conversations about the medicine , economics, finance, and investment of this historic moment. We will have much more this morning and this from london and new york. Stay with us. Us. Francine good morning, good afternoon, good evening. This is bloomberg surveillance. We are just getting a headline across the bloomberg terminal from nhk in regards to japan. Japan, according to the tokyo residentshe has asked to stay inside this weekend. The data check, a lot going on, on the markets. We are seeing a second day rally because of the stimulus package in the u. S. Futures up, european futures gaining 1. 4 . It is not the 4 highs we saw an hour ago, but they are holding onto gains, wti climbing toward 25 a barrel, and treasury turning lower, dollar falling for a second day. Tom it will be interesting to see the Market Reaction when we come out with greater information of the 1100 some pages of legislation from washington. We have much more coming up, peter hotez scheduled to be with and a timely conversation with Raghuram Rajan on the faultlines of this medical crisis. Please stay with us. From london and new york, this is bloomberg. I hope we can do this by easter. I think that would be a great thing for our country, and we country, and we are all working really hard to make that a reality. We will be meeting with a lot of people to see if it can be done. Easter is a very special day for many reasons. I think the notion that we thed be back to normal in month of april is absolutely inconceivable, so i want to give people the truth because i think it helps us all really get our expectations right. Tom we say good morning to all of you as we listen to voices in the last 24 hours on the medicine of the moment. Will join us from the university of chicago, and joining us now is our interview of the day in this moment for fromogy, Peter Hotez Baylor University coming to us from houston, thrilled you could join us. Applyingthe president his medical prescription. How removed is the president from the world of peter hotez . How removed is the president from the world of dr. Fauci . Peter how removed is the world the president from the world of tom and bloomberg . You are sitting in one of the epicenters of the covid19 pandemic. Casesk about 5 of the are in new york city which accounts for 60 of the cases in the United States. In this steep ascendancy, i am sorry to say, and your hospitals are being overwhelmed. Your residence and nurses are getting sick because of exposure to the virus. The president comes out with the statement where hell or high water, done in april. It is not backed by the data. My recommendation has been to least onet publichealth health victory under your belt, mr. President , and hold off on that kind of statement. Lets see how things go in new york over the last month next month. New cities are popping up. We are seeing new are lings with the beginnings new orleans with the beginnings of an epidemic, and the icus in atlanta are being overwhelmed so we may be sitting the cities seeing the cities. Lets let a month go by, it may be at the end of april take a end back may be at the of april take a step back and see if that is realistic. Tom the tension between the big cities of america and across Rural America or lesser urban america, Stephen Riley from the Imperial College of london, the tracking of the virus from wuhan or new york city out to the remoter parts of america, is it just a given that these other cities in farming america will see this virus . U. S. , it far in the seems to have mostly played out as an urban epidemic, mostly in areas of high concentration. I looked up on wikipedia of all places the most densely populated cities in the United States, and it roughly correlated to where we are seeing this virus. New york city is at the top of the list, San Francisco is pretty high. That may reflect where we are doing the testing and we dont know what is going on in the rural areas. The general trend is this is very much an urban epidemic in the United States, and that is very important in terms of making a plan for where you are going to intensify social distancing control, and how you go about making decisions for whether you want to reopen the country as the president said. Understandhat do we i am in london and i am italian so this was definitely the epicenter, slows down and goes back up. In london, the tests are not exactly wide so it is difficult to understand how much of the population is infected. What do we know or not know about the virus . Peter what is really interesting is when you look back at what the chinese told us , and they told us by putting up server, iton a pretty much has reflected the situation globally. They told us the elderly, older individuals were at risk, those with underlying conditions, diabetes and Heart Disease and hypertension. That has been true. They told us that Health Care Workers were getting disproportionately sicker than other populations. What i mean by that is in wuhan there were 1000 Health Care Workers that got sick and of those 15 of those, 15 were severely ill and required the icu. We do not understand why they are getting sicker, whether it is being exposed to higher amounts of the virus. Saw that with sars and mers and now this in hospitals, so we knew that was coming. The only difference we are seeing in italy and the United States from what i can tell, is a higher percentage we would have expected of younger adults getting severely ill. U. S. Ding to the cdc in the , the first wave of this epidemic in the u. S. , one third of the patients were under the age of 44. That is an Important Message to get across, because you are hearing a narrative in many circles that it is only among Older Americans and therefore, you are seeing collegeage kids partying on the beaches of miami and going on spring break, and now we are realizing they are also at risk as well. Youthne these are without any other pathologies . Peter that is a good question. That,c does not specify so again, we are in a steep learning curve with this virus and this is always the toughest thing a nation faces, dealing with an epidemic of a brandnew pathogen. It is extremely serious among young people as well. Fully understand how this virus is transmitted, whether fecal and oral routes are an important route of transmission or whether the virus can remain airborne for large periods of time, and we dont have a vaccine. If you are serious about controlling this virus, you have to do everything until you know everything about it and have a vaccine. We are trying to accelerate a vaccine. In my lab we have developed a vaccine and dr. Val she said dr. Fauci said it could be 18 months. As long as we are working hard as we are working trying to get our vaccine ready for clinical trials, that takes time as well, so trying to accelerate new technologies for this epidemic is quite challenging in addition to learning how it is transmitted. Tom we have a set of headlines coming out as we see people visible in the public getting sick. Individual from the United Kingdom, the prince of wales. Francine this is according to the press association, the prince of wales has tested positive for coronavirus. Sad news out of spain. We are used to these Daily Press Conferences where people say or authorities in spain and italy and various countries tell us how many deaths in 24 hours. Spain reported its deadliest day with 734 deaths in the space of 24 hours. Hotez, i noticed this morning in the log Financial Charts of the Financial Times and new york times, the glide path of the United States is remarkably like spain. New york is remarkably like madrid. What does the United States have trajectory ofe italy and spain . Peter the Lesson Learned is that we need to social distance and test early. Analyses coming out of china suggesting that the longer you allow transmission to ison before you intervene directly related to how big a surge you were going to have in your hospital. Let me explain. In wuhan where transmission went on for six weeks before anything meaningful was done to try to pictureswe all saw the , hospitals completely makinglmed, no icu beds, life or death decisions on who gets a ventilator. That was true in northern italy and will be true in the u. S. That is why we were jumping up and down saying we have to get the tests out because we know, as opposed to other cities in china where we picked up transmission within a week and were able to do the social distancing at that point. Without a vaccine or other countermeasures, all we can do is go back to the 14th century when quarantine was developed. We have got to socially isolate people. To take too seriously what the president says about reopening the country on april 12 because if we are still seeing cities pop up, that will be the time to hunker down even more. I am being asked a lot tom i am going to have to cut you off. We are thrilled you could be with us, dr. Peter hotez. It was my book of the year last communityntle book of by the author of faultlines a definitive book on the financial crisis. Raghuram rajan wrote a beautiful book, a primal scream on the need for Community Called the Raghuram Rajan joins us. Your book was shockingly prescient about the broken community of america. It is not out there and it is not working now. What are the best political practices now to get the third pillar to help us in this medical crisis . Raghuram we need to make sure that all resources are applied to tackling this crisis. What we learned is everybody matters. We need to make sure there are no clusters beyond our reach and that we bring the epidemic under control everywhere in the United States, and not just in the United States, in the world. At some level, we have social distancing between people but we see increasingly the need for a connection between people so that the efforts of the government, the efforts of the community abroad to help people out during this time of great stress. I look at the community distancing of the nation. As you look at the president and secretary mnuchin deals with finance, how do you dovetail the faultlines of finance, economics, investment, into the social fabric of the nation . Raghuram our origination, we stress to take care of the problems of the weakest. That is why the fiscal package has direct transfers for people and to unemployment insurance, etc. The name of the game now is to help the weakest, help the Weak Companies get through this if they are viable so when the recovery happens, they are there to help us with the recovery. What our nation is about, helping individuals and communities survive a disaster which individually they simply cannot. Difficult is it at this point in time we have all seen the curves and how you flatten it but how difficult is it to know how long we are in lockdown and what kind of recession we will see and what kind of recovery we can expect . Raghuram at this point, everybody is guessing. It depends on whether we follow the chinese and south korean pattern or something different. A lot of eyes on italy to see if italy can push back and stabilize and bring down the number of cases. We get some sense of how long it will be from that because we are western democracies. There is the question about the second wave, what if we managed to suppress the first round and find when people go back to factories there are new clusters . How do we deal with that . China, we are making sure they are dealing with it effectively and do not have second and third waves after letting people go back to work. People are bracing for at least a four to eight week period where there is a substantials shut down and we go back to work slowly. There are worse cases where we do not manage to suppress the pandemic and things get worse. Heard this isve probably not a recession and we are trying to pause the economy which seems like an impossible task. Will this be worse than 2008 or should we not compare it . Raghuram it is not comparable because the immediate effects can be quite devastating. Fall in gdp to 12 in the First Quarter in china and we could see something similar in the First Quarter in western democracies. I think the question that is different is that unlike these other countries, unlike the great recession, there is hope at the end of this that when we get back to work, if in fact the pandemic has been tackled, there is a hope we get stronger growth. That was not true during the great recession. Tom Raghuram Rajan with the university of chicago, cannot say enough about my book of the year the third pillar, an exceptionally courageous book about the community and loss of community in the world. York thisn and new wednesday, this is bloomberg. This as bloomberg surveillance, tom and francine from london and new york. Lets get straight back to Raghuram Rajan. At some of the things that policymakers around the world have done together with fiscal policy, monetary policy, is there a lack of coordination worldwide, and if there is, is that because this is a Health Care Crisis and it is difficult unless you shield your business and offer credit loans and guarantees, it is difficult how you see it from a world perspective . Raghuram there is clearly a lack of coordination and some of it is understandable. You want to get medical supplies for your own country before you think about the rest of the world. Everybody is trying to get ventilators but rich countries have production facilities within their countries or can get access to them through money, but think of the poor countries that start with the shortage and are dealing with the same crisis. The problem with the global crisis, if you have hotspots of infection, it comes back to it eventually so we need to eradicated across the world rather than only in the rich countries. As weeans that over time get resources in our own countries, we need to think about the rest of the world and make sure to tackle this around the rest of the world. That means getting resources to the poorer countries in the world to make sure they have a fair chance at fighting the epidemic. Medical resources require Financial Resources and hope that at the end of this they will get back on trade also. Rightne but what is the form for this . Forum for this . Is it the g7, g20 . Raghuram the lack of coordination is every country is overwhelmed and focused on what it needs to do within its own country. Many countries are behind the curb curve and trying to catch up. This is a new situation. Countries are putting all of their resources to tackle it and do not feel they have anything spare now. Thinking aboutbe what is happening in the rest of the world and making sure that in industrial countries, it doesnt come back to the emerging markets and developing countries once again to new waves of infection. The right body would be the g20 but it seems to be somewhat paralyzed right now. Francine how much do you worry about countries like india . The lockdown of 1. 3 billion people is something we have never seen before, but the emerging economies have a number of ventilators that is far lesser than we have in the west. Raghuram this is a very serious concern because not only does the lockdown keep people from going to work, it keeps them at home and home is not that pristine isolated place but can be a slum where people live together, and it may be hard to prevent infection from spreading. Moreover, people without livelihoods, how do you get money to them so they have money to spend . Food into those areas when you have prevented public annsport, so the issues are order of magnitude more difficult. The question is, what do you do . Francine thank you so much, sir, Raghuram Rajan. Francine this is bloomberg surveillance, s p futures erasing games and a similar pattern with european stocks, despite government rescue passages packages. [ one more time by daft punk ] woo [ laughing ] woo play pop music no way dude, play rock music yeah woah no matter what music you like, stream it now on pandora with xfinity. And dont forget to catch trolls world tour. Lets party people one more time we had a deal. The Trump Administration strikes a deal with Senate Democrats and republicans on a stimulus package. Banks scrapping dividends to help money flowing into the market while e. U. Leaders inched toward a rescue deal. Is this rally different . Investors might have to give up hope of a back to back rally. Welcome to bloomberg daybreak americas on this wednesday. I am live from brooklyn, new york. We came in and felt like we were set up for a two day rally. The best rally for the dow since 1933. Hopes gave way earlier, target suspending buybacks and cutting its 2020 outlook. Unable to have visibility on what the virus will mean. Youre going to want to sell stocks, by bonds, sel