Down the fort. Action, and as well in those money market funds. I was looking at the statistics. Money market funds pulled in 150 billion this week, while surpassing the peak of 2008. That is where we are seeing the stresses this week. Everyone just wanted cash. Francine whats amazing also is that the conversation started with small and Mediumsized Enterprises that may actually need support. Are we going to have governments take over in chunks some of the Big Companies to make sure they are safe . We will have plenty more on the markets and the economics of things, but lets get straight to the bloomberg first word news in new york city was Viviana Hurtado. Viviana the highest death toll from the coronavirus is in italy, surpassing chinas numbers. Italian fatalities topping 3400 is a nationwide lockdown continues. Europe remains at the epicenter of the disease. France reporting a 41 rise in deaths. Spain, an increase of get percent. Now to the state of california, and governor gavin newsom. Hes ordered all of the states 40 million residents to go into home isolation. The move is the most stringent measure in the u. S. So far to curb the spread of the disease. It allows people to leave their home for groceries and medicine, but otherwise, requires limited social interactions. Businesses not deemed essential are to be shut. The cap negotiators of postbrexit trade talks between intain and the eu are now isolation. David frost isolating himself, according to a british official. Mr. Frosts counterpart Michel Barnier announcing on twitter he tested positive for the disease. Sellingtors stock in january after receiving private briefings about the coronavirus. This sparking concerns that they put their financial above the completed sales ahead of time when the white house was downplaying the threat of the outbreak. They denied any wrongdoing. Global news 24 hours a day, on air and at tictoc on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. Im Viviana Hurtado. This is bloomberg. Francine thank you so much. That was, theres a little bit of relief when it comes to stocks. The dollar actually ending its rise for now. Overall, this is the picture in europe. They are gaining some 4 . I think it started in the u. S. Yesterday when you had some Companies Like twitter and netflix rebounding by at least 5 . It is not over yet. I think what traders may be looking at today is reassuring words from President Trump, asically trying to sure people that he is helping during the crisis. The mood can shift, but certainly, it is a very big different from what we saw yesterday morning. , theean bonds, also italian 10 year at 1. 57 . Taylor it was the best day in a while for most countries across the board. As we await the u. S. Open come also looking like an improved day. A more constructive for percent tone, and that means youre still getting a drawdown in yields on the 10 year, back down to 1. 03 . Youre seeing buying in both risk on an risk off sentiments. One notable thing we have been talking about all week, for the first time in nine days, the bloomberg dollar index is finally weakening after seeing record strengthening levels yesterday. King dollar certainly was the place to be. The vix down at 65. Certainly feels less panicky than at 80. Francine it certainly does. Lets now get straight to mark haefele, ubs Wealth Management global chief investment officer. He always has great insight and perspective. What can we be sure of right now in the markets, that we are going to see a lot more volatility, or that Central Banks and governments have kind of put a floor to the bottom . Much,well, thank you so francine. We have to start by big knowledge and human tragedy here, and the job losses that are already starting. Numbers of my own family in the american heartland have been laid off, two weeks of pay. Thats one part of it. Toall know what it means bend the curve, but i think the real question is, can governments fill the gap . Theres a lot of analysis out there, and talks of cuts to economic growth, but what we wanted to do was really think about this from an investors perspective, and what it means when you put together the growth downgrade, but with that policy that has been rolled out, as you said, and of course, the Federal Reserve has rolled out its entire Global Financial crisis playbook in three days. Withe has gone well beyond the pandemic emergency purchase program. To put have these plans very large fiscal stimulus in. 16 of gdp in the u. K. But is that enough . That is what we focused on. What we are looking at is if you want to pay the half of the small and Mediumsized Company ,mployees out there per month we think that is a little bit less than 1 of gdp. Add in some bailouts for larger companies, and we are looking at the governments need to fund between 1 and 2 of gdp per month. Think about some of these bailout packages. If they are effective, they do have a runway of more than several months in the plans to fill that gap while these mitigation efforts begin to take hold. Scenario, this does take a while, but the support is enough to prevent us from a meltdown. Thatine are you confident if there is more of a downturn, and we are seeing in italy lockdown efforts have not 100 fully worked, so they are going to lock down a bit more, but if this were to be the case elsewhere, do Central Banks and governments have more firepower to throw out the problem just throwat the problem to at the problem . We do know they have more [no audio] francine i think weve just lost him. Happens, as we try to keep all of our people safe. Couple ofhad a thoughts about where risk premium is. We will get back to mark haefele as soon as we have him on the line. The other story is what is happening with oil. I know youve delved into that quite deeply. We heard from russia, saying this is blackmail. They are not going to play the game the saudis one them to play. So watch out for a leg lower on oil, and also what that means for the global economy. Taylor u. S. Shale producers in texas start to cut output. I was hearing about 10 or so. That would be significant. I was hearing from our Annmarie Hordern earlier about how that would be a big help. Mark had really smart scenarios in both the upside and downside scenarios. The best Case Scenario for him would be a vshaped recovery, and theaped, a u, Downside Risk, looking at an lshaped scenario. Looking at government transfers back to the private sector of gdp to really help boost this economy as we go into lockdown mode. Have a lote will more about that shortly. Coming up also on bloombergs the open, it is a conversation with mom adele arian with mohamed elerian. York, 1 309 30 new in london. This is bloomberg. The oil price roiling Global Markets looks set to continue. We had a bloomberg scoop yesterday that said russian president Vladimir Putin will refuse to submit to what the kremlin sees as blackmail from saudi arabia, according to bloomberg sources. For more on that, we are joined by our Annmarie Hordern. The words were pretty strong. If russia now sees saudi arabia is blackmailing them, theres no chance we are going to get opec back in place. What does it mean for the price of oil . Annmarie pretty much everyone on the street is saying prices are going to dip below 20 a barrel. People i am speaking to say on wti, you could see single digits. With this incredible scoop from our moscow team, basically they are saying that russia does not want to be the ones that blink first. Theres a line in there that talks about they would be willing to come to the table, but i dont think putin is going to be the one to pick up the phone and call the crown prince first. He handles himself is this strongman. We have seen time and time again that this is someone who just doesnt give in. Francine we heard from President Trump. Is there anything the u. S. To try to mitigate the situation . Annmarie first, as you say, President Trump said yesterday he is aware of the situation with opec, and that they have power over it, and critically, he says he will intervene at the appropriate time. The second thing is that texas, for the First Time Since the 1970s, is potentially willing to cut production. That would be massive, and really would be viewed as a huge win for riyadh and moscow. Taylor for u. S. Shale in texas, that is a big deal if they start to cut output for the First Time Since the 1970s, as you mentioned. Is that an indication of how much pain it is to be 22 a barrel . Annmarie yes, completely. If you look at the permian prices, it is 16 and change. You can buy a barrel of oil for cheaper than going out for a steak dinner. We see everyday, s p, moodys, they are cutting these companies. Theres going to be less spending. Everyone says theres going to be consolidation in shale. The fact that the railroad commission, which is actually not railroads, but his oil and gas in texas, is saying that potentially come of this is what we should be doing, we should be cutting, is huge. Taylor what is consensus on any further Downside Risk from here . I keep hearing we could do 12 a barrel, and i also hear that this feels like a floor and theres not much further Downside Risk. What is it . Annmarie i think because you see a lot of statements about oil is going to be ramping up, but april is when it is physically going to be in the market. Thats why everyone is saying this is just the beginning. You will see a downside to the price when we see those physical barrels of oil come onto shore. Taylor we thank bloombergs Annmarie Hordern for staying on top of all of those. Bloombergn daybreak americas, a conversation with lori calvasina. At 8 00, noon in london. This is bloomberg. Francine this is bloomberg surveillance. Lets get straight back to mark haefele, ubs Wealth Management global chief investment officer. We were talking a little bit about what Central Banks have done so far, whether they have put a floor under these markets. My question to you now is how much more can they do without going into the danger zone . Ts you worry that this ge worse, and we could see a depression . Mark im not worried about that right now for a couple of reasons. First, when the fed first announced last week or last week and what they were going to do, there were some questions about their authority after doddfrank and some things. Those were answered, and as you guys pointed out, right down to supporting the money markets. Secondly, these government stimulus is that have been put forward are of sufficient size to carry the kinds of government shutdowns we are seeing for months and months. There is a scenario out there, if we get to august and we dont have containment and we are on severe lockdown, that they are going to have to come back and say can we really fund this, but that is a ways away. Again, china has shown stability in eight weeks. If the west can do this by july, that is something us to consider. Francine what are you telling your clients to do right now . Do you go to gold . Do you go into cash, or do you stay invested . Mark everybody is trying to scramble for hedges. As you know, it is the kind of or somethinguts like that, that is too expensive. The number one thing you can do to hedge right now is asset class deficit and global diversification. There were seven pandemics in the last century. There were wars, revolutions. The only people who really suffered in a recoverable total loss or those who were concentrated in one country. Thats the first thing. I think there are a lot of opportunities we are looking at. The 5g rollout in asia, for example, that is something that what we are seeing in life after this virus is more money is going to be directed towards online consumers, cell phones, things like that. We certainly see those kinds of opportunities. Another one that people may not think about right now, but remember, the best time to be a private Equity Investor was when there was a lot of stress in the market. That was the time to be signing up to be one of the investors. So that is another thing we are looking at. Also, we have seen that assets like u. S. Highyield and emergingmarket sovereign bonds that are dollar denominated, they are pricing in much more of a downside scenario now than some of the other asset classes. That makes some sense, that these kinds of assets would come out of a downturn faster than some of the equities. Class asset diversification sounds good in theory, but we have seen a massive breakdown and correlations this week. Then what do you do . Mark this week, we saw a lot of deleveraging. It in this, you saw huge dollars bike, hedges were not working and people needed to buy treasuries into dollar spike. It took a couple of days. That liquidity crunch is being eased, and there will be some normalization. In that case, as you also know, the gold broke down as the hedges fell, although we do think as some of that normalizes, gold can also appreciate because it does remain something of an insurance policy for nervous investors. Earlier this year, we were all complaining about heightened valuations, with the s p trading at more than 20 times forward pe. Now at about 13 and a half, devaluations look good . Mark valuations look much better in our base case, but the s p 500 can start to trade on forward projections of growth themarnings closer to 2650 where it is now. Than where it50 is now. That is as restrictions on travel and work remain until midmay, and that the stimulus efforts are not perfect in preventing layoffs and bankruptcies. What do you do with currencies . Are we going to see more volatility in currencies, or inequities . Or in equities . Mark i would say the number one thing people should be looking at is the pound because that really had a downturn versus the dollar in this liquidity squeeze. Should the centralbank action work, believe some of that pricing will normalize. Francine thank you so much. He is mark haefele from ubs. On that call yesterday with the bank of england, explaining some of those moves with the pound, those were on the movers on lockdown in london, which would also hurt financial services. We have a big current account deficit in the u. K. , so you will see dollar moves because we have a much more open economy than others. This is what i am looking at in the markets. A little bit of respite. We are also hearing from germany, setting up a 500 a 500n setting up billion euro rescue fund. We are hearing this from the spiegel, usually a reputable source. Taylor we go from a bailout over there to conversations of more bailouts here in the u. S. As we await our third stimulus package that could come hopefully within the next few days. We look at how that is translating into the equity market. A firmer, more constructive tone today within the s p 500 after surprisingly, no big down moves in either direction. We will take after this week. The 10 year yield coming down 10 basis points now to 1. 04 . The bloomberg dollar index coming off the record strength we saw yesterday, weakening here 1. 2 . This is bloomberg. Is bloomberg surveillance. Moments ago, crossing the bloomberg terminal, germany wants to set up a 500 billion euro rescue package for firms in difficulty because of coronavirus. This comes on the back of interesting comments from german finance minister olaf scholz, also putting his weight behind putting stakes in German Companies to help offset the impact of the coronavirus. We will have plenty more on that throughout the day. Now lets get to Viviana Hurtado in new york with the bloomberg first word news. Viviana we begin with the highest reported death toll from the coronavirus. It is in italy. That country surpassing chinas numbers. Italian fatalities now topping 3400 as a nationwide lockdown continues. Europe remains the epicenter of the disease. France reporting a 41 rise in deaths. Spain, an increase of 21 . The top negotiators of postbrexit trade talks between britain and the eu are now in isolation because of the coronavirus. After showing symptoms of the virus, u. K. Chief negotiator david frost isolating himself. This is according to a british official. Earlier on thursday, mr. Frosts counterpart Michel Barnier announcing on twitter he tested positive for the disease. President donald trump has waited into the Oil Price War between saudi arabia and russia. The president said he could intervene, and wanted to break the deadlock. This as he faces calls from lawmakers to help the domestic oil industry. Yesterday seeing the biggest spike in oil on record, following the lowest settlement price in 18 years. We end with Teva Pharmaceuticals planning to donate 6 million malaria tablets to help u. S. Hospitals. It is a drug that has been touted by President Trump is a potential treatment for coronavirus. The Israeli Company is one of the largest producers of the drug. Global news 24 hours a day, on air and on quick take by bloomberg, powered by more than 27 hundred journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. Im Viviana Hurtado. This is bloomberg. Taylor thank you. Ive been desperate to get some smart analysis on what is going on within u. S. Equity markets, and of course, the dollar that we keep talking about. Joining us now is Patrick Armstrong, Plurimi Wealth cio. Note,reading through your and there is one line here that stuck out to me. All it says is, u. S. Strength has been shocking. Says is, usd strength has been shocking. Walk us through what has been happening with the dollar. Plurimi we didnt expect patrick we didnt expect it to look like this. Is basically the safest place right now. No one wants duration, equity risk, or credit risk. U. S. Is where you want that cash right now. Until theres a bit of clarity on what is happening in the economy with unemployment, people who want castro safety, they are hoarding it, and i think those dynamics are going to continue to play out. Taylor i hear that liquidity was in the equity markets feels goods. How is liquidity within the fx and the credit markets . Patrick you dont get paid in too many places to have liquidity anymore. But the one thing that was a tailwind for the u. S. Was interestrate differential, and now basically the whole world is zero interest rate. We are probably going to start to see investors start to feel safe putting their money in commercial paper, putting their money in banks of reasonable quality. I think we might get away from just a pure cash defense, protecting cash funds. But liquidity is pure cash right now. I think you will slowly, gradually evolve and take some risk once theres a bit of confidence. I think we are already seeing signs of that. The ecb from of the bank of england, the fed all being very proactive. What ist stem happening to the extent of the coronavirus, but they can help the system by taking some form of risk with cash positions. Francine we heard germany moments ago saying they are prepared to buy company stakes to offset the virus impact. Is that going to be something we will see more of worldwide . If yes, what does it mean for some of your holdings . Patrick it is probably something that might be necessary. You think of where you want to nationalize, its utilities, transports. The Airlines Look like they are going to need a bailout. There will probably be a lot of assistance to reward equities, which have basically benefited from a lot of stock buybacks. Think will bei obviously at risk, and they should be. Bondholders will be the beneficiaries. Theres very little visibility, if at all, to win the sands. We dont know when the lockup ends to win this ends. We dont know when the lockup ends. Ive also heard, without scaremongering, the concern is infectedhe u. K. Gets or the u. S. Gets infected, it is going to be difficult if they reintroduce it in china. I dont know what the timeframe or the timeline for fixing this is. Patrick no one knows, like you say. Our view is it is going to decimate a lot of corporate earnings in q2. Youre going to see terrible economic numbers with q2. But our base case is that we have a secondhalf recovery. That will be boosted by some containment of the virus. It will come in the form of better treatment, progress on a vaccine this year, but that will put an end to next years, hopefully. Andre were hopefully there will hopefully be these quarantining measures if we see the impact in europe that we have seen in china, things like that. The market is going to basically the economy. I think the market will start to rally. In terms of economic improvement, there will be a lot of pentup demand. Rates,s no interest zero longterm bond rates, and with pentup demand, you can make a plausible case as to why there will be a sharp rebound. Time is a difficult question. Our view is it will probably be a very sharp recovery after a difficult slowdown. Francine thank you very much. Coming up next, we also hear from not yet calvino, the spanish from nadia calvino, the spanish become a minister. The spanish economy minister. This is uber. This is bloomberg. This is bloomberg surveillance with francine and taylor. The market is finally getting a little bit of a lift. We have been talking to guests about how long this will last, and if government and Central Banks have done enough. We also had a conversation with nettie calvino with nadia calvino, the spanish economy minister, on how this is playing out. An auction of spanish sovereign debt, and the reaction has been positive. We had almost 11 billion demand. Interest rates have gone down. We are around 0. 78 for the 10 year bond. I think the action of the ecb has provided the needed and appropriate stability to take the right decisions. Last week, due to the reinforcement of containment measures in our country, we started to see an impact which was quite significant in terms of the economic and social movement. We need to be able to take the right decisions in an environment which does not generate volatility and anxiety at the end of the day. Guy do you worry that if spain decides it does issue now, that there will come a point where spain ends up being punished for what it does now, but significantly further down the road . Maybe in a year s time, when this has stabilized . That spain ends up with a much greater debt load then it has now, and as a result, the markets say, you know what . We are not comfortable with this. And there is a cost of what is happening. Nadia we absolutely need to avoid that that happens because it is a global challenge, a global disease. The impact on our societies and our economy is also global, and we need to provide global responses. Obviously in europe, we need a european response. National governments are doing their part. We are adopting the right measures to address the different challenges. The ecb has done its part, and now we need to think about the european fiscal response to make sure that that risk does not materialize. Francine that was not he a calvino that was not he a calvino that was nadia cal vino, the economy minister of spain. Lets get back to Patrick Armstrong of Plurimi Wealth. How are you looking about how this will possibly permanently change social society, the way we shop, the way we live, the way we travel . Is it too soon to start doing that, or do we need to do it for Investment Purposes . Patrick i am starting to do that. I cant have the answers. We are functioning very well working from home, and that might be good for gender equality, thinking about other things, about mmt, where the strengths are in the theory about helicopter money, payments direct to citizens. I think that is something we will be seeing a lot of. I think the first instance wont be the last instance, either. We are going to need a very quick fiscal transfer, especially to people facing unemployment, not being able to pay their bills. Once that happens, we will have opened pandoras box. I am not sure about longterm bonds in that scenario. I have been adding some Corporate Bonds and longer bonds that feel safer with corporate highgrade credit than i do longterm duration, so i think these are things that are just beginning now, but are going to have longterm impacts on the economy and society. Francine patrick, what do you do with 10 year treasuries in the u. S. Right now, or 30 . Sold them oni march 9 when they were yielding 0. 9 , and started to buy Corporate Bonds. Both of them are down about 12 . We seem 30 year treasuries, the msci world, gold, everything is down double digits since then. Everyone wants cash. Everyone is getting margin calls. No one wants any risk. Gold. Now, i would prefer thinking thatu companies should now go back and reevaluate their reliance on supply chains in china . Try to diversify, given how quickly we have seen this virus spread and shut down . All of us are now in sort of lockdown mode. And rethink our reliance on those supply chains in china . Patrick i dont know because a month ago, thats exactly what i thought was going to happen. We were going to experience a simultaneous supply and demand shock, but it has really turned into a demand shock globally. China supply has shown to be relatively resilient. I think theres probably grounds for what weve been experiencing for several years now, with brexit and nationalism is a priority for a lot of people. You want to have self sustainability. I think it is a theme that will play out, but the resilience of the chinese recovery so far to date actually puts a bit of a flaw in that logic. Francine my ears perked up when i heard you mention credit. I wanted to show a chart here that is all about the spreads, which have been blowing out, a story url familiar with, within the investmentgrade market story you are well familiar with, within the Investment Grade market, bbbs. Do those need to blowout to 1000, as some of the analysis i have heard . Or as you is interested at 750 above treasuries . Patrick it makes sense historically to get interested at these levels. It is very rare you lose money when you are getting paid 750 above treasuries because theres always a significant amount of something. O it is i havent moved into junk bonds yet. There will be a time to do it. I dont think it is quite now. I prefer the level just above bbb right now as a sweet spot. You dont get a huge carry on it, but the cyclical industries, if they have somewhat of a stretched balance sheet, downgrades happen after credit events. You are probably going to have a wave of downgrades into bb, and then the next wave of selling for those type of securities, from pension funds, etfs, Investment Grade etfs. I think theres a bit of a risk on spread. Taylor Patrick Armstrong of Plurimi Wealth continues to stay with us. Our hearts go out to all of those charter holders and candidates who exams have been delayed in june. Coming up, a conversation with pri mizra. This is bloomberg. This is bloomberg surveillance. Day, the dayng where each quarter options and futures expire. It is likely to add more volatility for an already volatile week. Lets get straight now to dani burger for a full explanation of what that means for your markets. Markets didnt have enough to deal with, quadruple witching, we get this whole host of options and futures expiring. That usually adds volume and volatility into the markets. Begins, as their options to expire, they say, do i need to close this out, wait for it to expire, or put on new hedges to deal with those . According to trade alert, 1. 5 trillion worth of options going to expire. That is a huge amount. React to that can change hourbyhour. We get huge swings in the market. Last time, we saw a volume spike of 70 , which would be remarkable given the volume we have already seen. Just to show you how concerned Market Players are with this, usually s p, dow jones adjust their indexes. This is the open interest for options on the s p 500, which is at a record, which stands to reason a huge amount of these options are going to expire today, which means a lot of volatility likely to come into the market. But once these options are closed, it can actually reduce volatility if new options arent put on. Taylor, francine . Francine thank you so much. Dani burger with the quadruple witching explanation. Lets get back to Patrick Armstrong of Plurimi Wealth. Is there any certainty that we will see more volatility for the markets . Patrick for people who are starting to see attractive valuations in equities, selling put options is a way you can get compensated for the high levels of volatility. Last week, we saw options put on mastercard six months, and got paid 20 to do that. I get the stock between he percent cheaper. If it stays plat if it stays flat, i get when he percent premium. You can get 20 in six months. Thats not a bad strategy right now. Good way toion is a monetize some of the volatility right now. Are you buying anything in european bond yields . I know you were talking about corporate before. The ecb seems to be standing firm, making sure the spread doesnt unwind too much. Patrick weve moved cash positions into some Shortterm Bank debt right now. In europe, we are getting a small carry to be long, which is essentially a cash position. So we are in Higher Quality bank debt, shorter durations of what the ecb has done is very attractive for corporate debt. So weve not really made a big move into that yet. But with the ecb has done is put a backstop. It is very good news for Corporate Bonds. Taylor are you folding in some of the concerns about the fiscal deficit now back into your analysis, or during periods of wartime, do we ignore deficits . Patrick i think it is the political will in the United States that no one is going to say no to spending. I think it is going to be a massive tailwind for gold. We are spending is going to go up. We were already running close to 1 trillion deficit. If you have to put another 1 trillion or 2 trillion on top of that, you could see the numbers quickly change. I wouldnt exactly be in longduration and bonds, treasuries, because theres a lot of risk i think you need to monetize eventually. I dont think we are done with fiscal stimulus. I think it is going to be ongoing to make sure everything is good going into the election. I am very concerned about longduration. Taylor weve been talking a lot about valuations. I think one of the bigger concerns is the denominator of the p e ratio. The earnings doesnt have a forecast. You have Companies Pulling their earnings guidance. How have you been actively evaluating a company on a fundamental basis if we dont know the denominator . Pe is onepatrick measure we look at. Au can Value Companies somewhat their sales were last to 36 months from here. If you look at other measures, we have seen that in companies , these are companies that arent going to see their top lines or even bottom lines dramatically impacted. [indiscernible] earnings are almost unfor castable right now are almost now. Recastable right francine Patrick Armstrong of Plurimi Wealth. This is what stocks and bonds are doing. They are climbing globally with. S. Equity futures the dollar finally halting this rally. Unprecedented measures coming from the governments, from Central Banks on how to shield jobs and economies from coronavirus. The other story is oil, and this is the standoff between russia and saudi. Late last night, Vladimir Putin, according to our sources, was saying that it is blackmail from saudi arabia, and they will not play games. [ fastpaced drumming ] [ fastpaced drumming ] u. S. On lockdown. The moste country with coronavirus deaths. Officials warn trials could year. A Johns Hopkins says the global death toll has topped 10,000. Russia says it wont submit to the lled blackmail from kingdom. President trump says well, good morning, good afternoon, good evening. Now, we have a full roundup of the markets. Taylor, finally a little bit of after the central banking action in the last couple of days. U. S. Deputy futures up. Futures in europe up, and sandy berger was saying, watch ut for the triple witching hour, which may bring more volatility as if the markets didnt need that, right . Given what