Take a look at the technicals. This is a one year chart of the s p 500. A chubby uptrend. The big question is whether we are looking at a v bottom. It could be something that is called a bear pendant. 3000 is the lines in the sand. Bottom backe a toward the high. If we go back below the 200 Day Moving Average or below 3000, it makes a stronger case for work to be done to the downside. Volatility breeds volatility. More big moves are ahead. Worksuggests there is more to be done on the downside. At the creditg market, which looks to be stabilizing after some steep losses at the end of february with highyield bonds volume for a second day. The spreads narrow. Is the biggest junkbond etf, so the biggest the secondbiggest inflow ever. The spread narrowing can be an indicator for equities. Some of the bulls can take comfort there could be more upside for stocks. Crude oil has come off its highs for the day because russia and saudi arabia cannot seem to agree on whether deeper cuts are needed to offset the impact of the coronavirus on oil. Russia also and participated in todays Opec Monitoring Committee meeting. Russian minister leaving because of the agreement. The meeting falling apart could hurt the momentum oil has built up so far. Wti crude oil is down this year. Everyoneour thanks to on the markets team. Still with us, Cameron Crise. Morganlander and chad mocon letter. Has beenthe discussion related to what the fed is doing and central banks. Coronavirus scare, there was some concern we could be seeing a slowdown in global growth. Given all that has transpired, our markets not pricing in that possibility anymore . They are starting to reposition. This is happening in real time, hence the reason why you have this gap in volatility overall. The year,going into we had a 3 handle on global growth. That has to be marked down to the two range overall. Fundamentals are going to deteriorate for the next month or two and possibly three. Earnings are going to be have to going to have to be revised down drastically. That is the reason you are seeing Consumer Staples start to get marked up. Joe yesterday, we got the 50 basis point emergency rate cut. A lead to a rally that lasted 30 minutes. It led to a rally that lasted 30 minutes. There is a live debate on a situation like this. No one is saying the fed can solve everything or the only response needs to be monetary or whatever it also is. What is your view of the proper role of the central bank and what can Monetary Policy do in an environment like this . It depends on your starting point. If there is legitimate room to ease policy in a way that does not destabilize things further, that is something they can do. A gesture at the very least. The most important thing is to ensure the ongoing effective transmission of Monetary Policy and the Payment System. The worst Case Scenario is all flights are grounded and there are outages in the electronic Payment System starts malfunctioning and the electronic Payment System starts malfunctioning. The fed is on top of that because that is a breadandbutter part of their job. Hasou look at europe, there been mumbles the ecb might trying to do something, but they are pushing on a string. They are shooting blanks or whatever analogy you want to use. There is not a whole lot they can do to help italy. Scarlet lets go back out to you. We spoke to jim bullard. , but he said dove you should not be counting on more rate cuts as we get closer to the march 18 decision. What is your thinking on how the fed has positioned itself for the announcement later on in the month . They may reduce rates again, but who knows . Their them to expand Balance Sheet if this becomes disorderly. Is fortheir mandates financial conditions to be stable. They are trying their best to provide more cowbell to allow that to happen. Overall, the Economic Activity there is going to be no impulse into the u. S. Economy because the fed takes on another trillion dollars of assets on their Balance Sheets or reduces interest by another 50 basis points. The reality is consumption has been moving ahead steadily. This is going to be a blow to consumption for a short time. Hopefully, god willing that would be the case. Then you will get a tsunami of fiscal stimulus from china, hopefully the European Union and potentially after the election, from the united states. Economic growth will normalize, but you will have this gap lower in valuations if this progresses. Romaine when do we get to a stage when we start to see rates normalize if at all . At 1 on al staring benchmark yield. Is this something we have to get used to . Temporarily over the next year or two, you do. The europeans are a perfect example. You have negative interest rates. When you look at the bank of International Settlements and the statistics, European Growth on a private credit side has been nonexistent for the last several years. That shows that even with negative interest rates, they cannot drum up Economic Activity which would drum up inflation. We still have to go through this. Only time will tell. In the united states, when we pass through this and god willing we will shortly, then you can continue to see the curve start to stephen again and rates start to normalize start to steepen again and rates start to normalize. Scarlet a cautious chad morganlander. We have not mentioned joe biden. Much validity do you give to the idea that joe bidens surprise showing in super tuesday is what charged this market . Have donelth insurers very well today. That being said, it is not like they were lacking the broader index by a massive amount, it is what you would expect if there were a bernie premium or a bernie discount i guess. I am at personally, times really focused on the election and electoral themes because there is so much other stuff going on. It is dangerous to fixate on a narrow driver. If you implement a trade raised on a narrow driver, it can get swamped by more macro considerations. Scarlet we see a huge relief rally in those health care providers. I want to thank Cameron Crise and chad morganlander. That does it for the closing bell. What did you miss is up next where we will be looking at airlines after united says they are cutting flights due to the virus outbreak. This is bloomberg. Romaine live from bloombergs World Headquarters in new york, im romaine bostick. Here is a snapshot of how u. S. Stocks closed. The dow, s p and nasdaq all rallied. Joe the question is, what did you miss . Romaine stocks rallying. Bonds rallying on the hope that the government will fight the coronavirus. New cases of the coronavirus in los angeles and italy. Balance pay the former Vice President surprises with a solid delegate lead coming out of super tuesday. Scarlet now with the u. S. Supporting its 11th reporting its 11th coronavirus death, businesses are urging consumers not to write. It was quiet for so long in the u. S. We have seen Vice President pence say we would have one and a half million tests available by the end of the week. Darting next week, we will get one million tests per week. You have more testing then perhaps you will get cases of confirmed infections. 11 fatalities the first death 11 fatalities. The first death in california. Moreork has announced five cases of the westchester attorney and his people around him. Arere seeing authorities taking proper actions for these tests. Authorities thing the test will be covered by medicare and medicaid. Joe we did not know yet what the economic fallout is going to be. Things are getting canceled left and right. More people are working from home. Airlines are already reducing domestic travel. Shery we are seeing the impact in the u. S. We have been talking about those issues in asia already. The u. S. Chamber of commerce coming out. Travel leaders coming out saying, do not panic. Not to overreact. We have seen airbus say they are theing a 330 output cuts as virus is starting to hit their customers. Another issue people are starting to talk about is what sort of Insurance Coverage those businesses could get given we could see more lawsuits because of deadlines not being met. Romaine our thanks to shery ahn. Now we want to talk about some of the Market Reaction. Some insight into how the markets are responding. Ben emons joining us. The Market Reaction seems to be relatively domestic. Sense thatere is a government whether it is in the central bank of essays or in the low bakers offices, somehow they will manage to contain the economic fallout. Are you seeing that play out . Ben it is playing out that way. You can look at it the way china approached containment. It pumped a lot of liquidity into the system. The stock market revived. This is what we are seeing in developed markets. The difference is we did not go through all four lockdown of a major metropolitan city. We are not at that stage yet. That if there was to the markets. We have to get to the point. Mark to that point. The moment, the market thinks it is incredible enough to say coming inome recovery the following quarter. Joe what would an effective Economic Policy response look like . I do ; basis point look like . Do nott think a 50 i think most people would say a 50 basis point cut would do it. Would you like to see policy wise that would blunt what is clearly going to be a serious negative pitch of the economy . Whenback in the 2008 time you had what is, the National Champions idea. The idea of government would protect major systemic industries from collapsing. This plays a role here too. If the virus becomes that disruptive, then you have National Champions to protect because it could lead to a collapse of the economy. The airlines is a good example. The airlines are visiting the white house. They are saying, we cannot have airlines collapse. There is a discussion on how to support these industries. I think that is what markets are sensing. Scarlet airlines we can understand because there are the front lines of feeling the pain. What about an industry like retail that is going to suffer from people not being able to leave their house are not willing to linger in public should they were all right linger in public. They were already under pressure. A lot of them took on too much debt. What is the best response to that injury . Ben i would say you cannot protect everyone. That is the issue. There are choices. In 2008, we made big choices about protecting banks. You cannot expect from this 8 billion that is approved for congress that is initially for Emergency Response you can in future rollout cuts to support small business. Will it be enough . That is to be seen. We can take a cue from the bond market. There is not going to be a major rebound. Into a twostate dynamic of collapsing markets and public confidence. Romaine we are trying to reimpose that confidence. Even in a day like today where we rallied, we did not see the big growth names leading the way. It was some of the real estate companies. Health care had its moment in the sun. I am wondering, when do we see that confidence reflected in people embracing what would traditionally be true risk assets . Point, it is not a liquidity issue. This is about you not only get the virus on incredible control, but you do have that kind of Government Support behind it. These are government guaranteed businesses at the moment. Im willing to invest in it again because it is going to see a recovery in the future. Joe the widespread view it as we have not had the worst of that here. It feels like it is ghost it is just getting started. Seee we look abroad and signs of life again in hong kong and beijing and people returning to streets and movie theaters at the same time people in the u. S. Are increasingly working from home. Ben that is not impossible to see that given that this outbreak is going through the stages. The cases will go up dramatically. What will be the psychological impact . There is a difference between the recovery happening now versus what we could experience with future recovery. The initial experience we have as an economy are stronger than some of the other economies. That matters to investors. The refract we could have a difference from the moment. Scarlet how much do you trust the numbers coming out of the u. S. And china . We have 11 confirmed cases. We have not had very much testing. It is going to take a for this to show up in the economic data. We will be going on the number of cases and fatalities. Ben youre going to compare how n and see italy and ira the exponential explosion of cases. There is this website out. You can pull the data from that. That is what people will do. Everyone is going to look at the same data. We are look at the same uncertainty at the moment. Responses and Emergency Responses are robust. We can cope with an up break in a more way then maybe other may othercan than countries can. Scarlet we cannot build hospitals in 10 days. Joe joe i do not see that happening anytime soon. Coming up, not dead yet. Joe bidens once flailing campaign bouncing back on tuesday. A new confidence in the race. We will be talking about that next. This is bloomberg. Joe super tuesday living up to its name yesterday, especially for joe biden. Racking up wins in 10 of the 14 withs in closing the gap senator Bernie Sanders. For more, we are joined on the phone by tyler pager. Tyler, what did everyone seem to get wrong about the stay of bidens campaign, even as recently as two or three days ago . Tyler the changing of fortunes in this race is the story of the night. In iowa and new hampshire, he finished fourth and finished and fifth. He was declared dead on arrival. What was underestimated was how much support he had from africanamerican voters. He got a crucial endorsement from jim clayborn in south carolina. That led to a reckoning among the moderate and establishment democrats. They were going to splinter the vote if they did not coalesce behind him. And is what they did propelled him into a sweeping performance. Romaine the establishment seems to favor a biden candidacy. Is this a two man race . Elizabeth warren has not dropped out. Prison mobley some of her supporters would have some sort of political leanings that might favor Bernie Sanders. Is there a way she can be a factor in this conversation . Tyler i think it is shaping up to be a two person race between joe biden and Bernie Sanders. Bernie sanders held a press conference in burlington. He said he spoke with Elizabeth Warren this morning. He did not get into too much detail but said that she told him she is assessing her campaign. She can play a factor if she drops out of the race and gives a full endorsement of Bernie Sanders like we so Pete Buttigieg and Amy Klobuchar give to joe biden. I think there is more nuance among warrant supporters that would not lead them directly to Bernie Sanders. I think there would be some splintering. She could be an effective surrogate if she can use it if she chooses to go down that route. Scarlet you were in burlington, vermont. You have been following the sanders campaign. Sanders changing his strategy . This is such a rapid development. A few days ago, we were talking about Bernie Sanders possibly leading super tuesday. Now he is facing a delegate deficit to joe biden. His message is not changing much, but this is what he said in the press conferences. He plans to draw a sharper contrast between his record and joe biden because the race is a conflict of ideas. Ramp up theo criticisms of joe biden. We will see a sharper contrast from the vermont senator. Scarlet thank you so much. He has been tracking the sanders tum. Aign on joemen saeeg up, we will speak to d amen on what alternative data investors can used to track the coronavirus. This is bloomberg. Awesome internet. Its more than just fast. It keeps all your devices running smoothly. With builtin security that protects your kids. No matter what theyre up to. It protects your info. And gives you 24 7 peace of mind. That if its connected, its protected. Even that that petcamera thingy. [ whines ] can your internet do that . Xfinity xfi can because its. Simple, easy, awesome. [ barking ] im Mark Crumpton with bloombergs word news. In new york, Governor Andrew Cuomo is reporting another five cases of coronavirus, all linked to the infected attorney who lives in Westchester County works in manhattan. A friend of the lawyer also tested positive along with have his wife, two sons and a daughter. That family is under quarantine at home. Washington state is reporting a 10th death of coronavirus. Opener jay inslee says he is evaluating whether to order widespread closures and cancellations. Virus mays say the have been circulating for weeks undetected in Washington State and they expect to see more cases reported soon. California has reported its first death from the virus. President ommission unveiled the e. U. s first ever climate law, which will act as the basis for the European Unions goal to make the block carbon neutral. Want to legislate to make their ambition of cutting Greenhouse Gas emissions to zero irreversible and legally binding for all member states. The european climate law puts in legislation our targets to reduce Greenhouse Gas emissions next year 10 net zero by 2060 thats zero. I gives us the possibility to take corrective measures if we fall behind our own goal. Climate activist Greta Thunberg attended the climate discussions. She dismissed the opposed the proposed law in an open letter. 34 activist stressed that instead of sitting longterm goals, the e. U. Should focus on emissions of Carbon Dioxide right now. Democraticr the 2020 president ial nomination has gone through some big changes in the last 24 hours. Joe bidens campaign is projecting he will have a 50 delegate lead after winning 10 states on super tuesday. Four statesrs won including california. Mike bloomberg has thrown his support behind biden. He is the founder of bloomberg news. s campaignarren manager says she is assessing the future of her candidacy. Global news, 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. Im Mark Crumpton. This is bloomberg. Romaine china quantify the Economic Impact of the coronavirus. Game. Been a guessing some investors are turning to alternative data. Amen is the founder of cuemacro. You have been involved in alternative data for a while. Can you give us a sense of how we can use those to sauce out the effect of this to suss the effect of this economy . Saeed one is trying to track the buyers itself. From an investor viewpoint, the primary thing you can do is try to understand the Economic Impact of it. Traditionally, we have used gdp data to understand the impact on economic growth. With alternative data, we can have more highfrequency measures for aspects of the economy whether it is growth, consumer demand and so on. Joe if we look at a country like china, there is no question, especially in the first quarter, activity by any measure got clobbered. Some of the most staggering charts you will see anywhere. What about in developed economies where we have not seen an explosion of cases, but we know there are some and we know there is anxiety. What data are you looking at to see what kind of effect the virus is having on the situation on the ground . Saeed one thing you can do to get a big picture view of what is happening is to look at the News Associated with the coronavirus. On the bloomberg terminal, if you search for stories associated with the coronavirus, you plot that against the s p 500. It is apparent it has gone lockstep in terms of higher volume around news of the coronavirus and fall in stock. That is a big picture view. If you are trying to look at specific aspects, you can look at things like credit card transaction data. Are there certain sectors where the consumer is pulling back . Most notably, it could be travel , retail and that type of things. That is available on a highfrequency basis. Joe where do we get edgy . Credit card data, things like that. A lot of investors have access to them. They get released at the same time. In this arms race that is alt data, how can one use what is out there to gain something that ones investors do not have . Of it isthink part also the mix of data. Is one partard data of the mosaic. He went to augment you want to augment the data to see if they confirm each other. That is the trick. It is not so much trying to look at one magic data that will give you all of the answers. It is trying to understand multiple datas to try to understand. Does credit card data trackingte satellite of cars . With china, you can look at pollution data. That is the trick. Romaine going back to the point about the edge, how do you future proof . . Ow do you future proof that we have talked about Factor Investing and how a lot but does not work anymore because everyone uses it. If everyone is doing the same thing, you lose that edge might have had in the past. Is there a way to future proof this so you can reap the benefits of what you created . Proof the way to future is to do Continual Research. Continually looking for new data sets, looking for new ideas. Running the same strategy, it might become crowded. The impact will lessen. We see an example of that in the fx market. There is the common month end effect. It is something we looked at when i was at Lehman Brothers 15 years ago. So many people know it and understand, they have begun to change their behavior. You need to do Continual Research to come up with new ideas looking for new data sets and potentially, you are basically ahead of the curve. There is not scarlet an easy answer. Scarlet is there a risk of not an easy answer. Scarlet is there a risk of too much data . Do you look at any data sets and say, that is something i do not want to Pay Attention to because it does not clarify anything and it obscures the nuances . Data, when you look at you cannot cherry pick and only pick the charts that look nice. Change the yaxis. In thee to be consistent way you look at data sets. If it is telling you something you do not agree with, you need to respond to the and potentially change your viewpoint. To changeo be open your view if the data tells you something different. Saeed amen joining us from london. Coming up, the coronavirus hunter. Were on the scientist who has been more on the scientist who has been chasing viruses for decades. He may hold the key to the potential cure. This is bloomberg. Romaine time now for a look at what stories are trending across the bloomberg universe. Terminal users are reading about wall street readers who are stuck at their desk. After spending years enhancing trading debts, banks are finding it is hard to relocate all of that to peoples homes. Limited. Com has a story on the struggle of the u. S. Steel mill to partner with china. It looked like a match made in heaven until the Trump Administration ruled out a tariff. Robos are objecting to the exemptions. Quicktake is reporting amazon is going to stream yankees games. It will not be seen by everyone. It will only be seen in the surrounding areas including new york, new jersey, pennsylvania and connecticut. You can follow all of the stories on your terminal, bloomberg. Com and on quicktake by bloomberg. Werlet this is the moment have been fearing and expecting. We are talking about a unc scientist. He is racing to find a cure all while locked in a lab. This is someone who has been working on this since the 1990s. Before we get to who he is, how close are we to a possible cure . Havee hope is we will something already offtheshelf that can be put into trial quickly and that may work. If that is possible, we could get treatment in a few months. Joe lets back up for a second. Who is this guy and what has been his focus over the years one before anyone had heard the word . This researcher at the university of north California North carolina has been working on the coronavirus before it was known to cause the common cold. He started developing evidence. They could spread from bats to people. He started raising the alarm years and years before this. Romaine we now know not a lot of people listened to him. Based on his research and the other research you know of, how far away what sort of he is one of a handful of researchers who has the virus in his secure lab. Test drugsg to against it. He has been working on drugs on ses before people were worried about it. He is going to test the actual virus. They can go into his mice and then human trials. Scarlet one of the disturbing discoveries he has made is that it has the ability to mutate and adapt. As we look for some treatment, this could change quickly. Coronavirushe third that spread from animals to people in less than 20 years. But all of the experts are telling me is it is not going to be the last. You need drugs against this one and the next one. Romaine there have been joe there have been multiple ones so far. Does he have an idea about what is different from this one, why this one has been so difficult to stop, to slow down . The previous ones, the most tires is sars, that has a a higher death rate. That tended to only spread when people had severe symptoms. It was easier to isolate the cases. This looks like any old flu or respiratory virus. Those people go in and get treated. A few cases, people die. Romaine the u. S. House is voting on the spending package to respond to the threat here. And you look at funding some of the researchers, how much support are they getting from the government . Dohis lab has been funded to early drug work. Because of his lab and a few others, they have already tested a drug that works that may work against coronavirus. Him, some possibilities are in testing. Joe we will be following his work. Our thanks to robert. It is time for smartcards with abigail doolittle. This way, youre looking at the different segments of the equities market. Abigail last week, the last few weeks, how could we resist . You have been tremendous on the equity market in 2015. You turned bearish. There was a correction. A small bear market in the beginning of 2016. Then you have been consistently bullish. Lets take a look in your s p 500 and fix chart. To stressnt we want lets put some perspective on everything. About tot was down percent on a closing basis. The s p 500 coming back into prior breakout levels, marking peaks from 2018. Still really into its longterm support leg chain from that perspective, the longterm up still in play. I think what is going to be telling is there is going to be some needed backing. Coming off a reading of 40. That is one of its highest levels on inverted scale going into 2011. There is going to be some needed backing and filling. Abigail what do you think in terms the debate around the v bottom. What is the stronger case at this point . I guess i would put it like this. Three out of five times, there is going to be some backing and filling needed. Two out of five times, you can get the reversal. Ire important is, what do want to own if this is going to be a reversal and where is risk . Abigail lets take a look at health care. Health care on the day surging from the managed providers. Up the most sense 2008 the most since 2008. I think the opportunity in a lot of the growth sectors the risk is in value. It is not just tech. It is a Health Care Story as well. Support thek into prior breakout level. Check out the relative trend of health care versus the market on an equally weighted basis. Big relative breakout dating back five years. That health care is likely to take on a leadership role. Abigail health care is typically seen as a defensive sector. What does that mean for the ongoing bull market . I would argue against that. I think health care is one of the best performing sectors. It is going to lead from this big move until now, how defensive is that . Have biotech starting to take on a rotational role. Midcap names. Pharma names i think are weakest. Abigail lets look at growth. This was the lead into the health care chart to show the opportunities on the growth side, you have the russell growth index into a 200 Day Moving Average. Really just a healthy setback. The risk is in value. You did fall back below the break of the january 2018 beat below the 200 Day Moving Average. This is where the weak get weaker. Youll be at a greater risk of energy and financials. That is what you want to stay away from. Abigail it sounds like you are realistically bullish. This is bloomberg. Joe a little bit of breaking news from the department of labor. There had been a proposal to change the way the jobs data was released on the first friday of every month. People went into a room and had some time to look at it. That was going to be eliminated so knowing god gnarly look. Now, at least for as of this friday, they are not changing the policy. For those interested in the mechanics of how that data comes out, no change. Romaine lets turn now to what is happening with the coronavirus. Airlines are continuing to scale back. United reducing its flights and a the next few months and freezing hiring flights in the next few months and freezing hiring. United came out with this. It was not quite a surprise, but we have been hearing from quite a few airlines they are revising their outlooks or pulling them because they do not know how the situation is going to shake out. The coronavirus really came with her let of uncertainty and a lot of really dynamic consumer behavior. Last week, united had been moving along their business. Over the weekend, sales had changed quite a bit. I think the changes today came about quickly because of what they saw the past couple of days. It is not just united. All Airlines Across the world are dealing with a traveling public that does not want to travel anymore. Joe we know the international flowing seen has been hit for a wild. In the last few days, they have noticed a market deteriorate a marked deterioration for domestic travel. That is what we can infer from the fight they are cutting their domestic capacity by 10 in april and they will probably do the same thing in may. At least for those two months and probably march as well, people are not going to travel the way they had been. The question now is, what happens for the Summer Travel season . Does this virus concern linger and maybe the Summer Travel plans get changed or do people rebound and do what they normally do every other summer . That is the uncertainty now and why they cannot really talk to investors about what the business is doing this year. Scarlet you had mentioned united is freezing hiring. Are they making any moves or taking any steps towards firing workers . The labor market has been strong. It is one thing for job growth to slowdown. We have not heard anything about airlines furloughing workers. Theynk right now, i think are thinking if you offer work, thateduced takes care of that problem and you move into the summer. The question is, what happens next . I think that is why it is such a dynamic situation. Scarlet thank you so much. A lot of new data coming up. Opec plus ministers will be gathering in vienna to discuss oil demand and supply changes. Joe i will be watching the economic data. Costco reporting secondquarter earnings after the bell tomorrow. Scarlet that does it for whatd you. Romaine have a great evening. This is bloomberg. Welcome to bloomberg markets. Chang in San Francisco with paul allen in sydney. Coming up in the next hour, u. S. Equities rally as congress agreed on 8 billion in emergency funding to fight the virus that has claimed at least 11 lives across america. There are questions about the safety of food shipments worldwide in the midst of the virus outbreak. Our exclusive with the cfo of impossible foods coming up