Bob iger will continue to direct creative endeavors. And conversations from tech regulation to politics. We begin with the coronavirus and the outbreak spreading beyond china. The firstted states, known case of unknown origin was reported in california. The state is monitoring thousands for signs of exposure. President has tapped mike pence the task of overseeing the u. S. Response. Trump spoke from the white house wednesday. Done,ause of all we have the risk to the American People remains low. We are ready to adapt and do whatever we have to. This is like a flu. I think the stock market will recover. Emily but the markets were not all fine, with markets pinned to the virus threats. The s p 500 and dow jones suffered big losses this week. As for the tech sector and supply chains, microsoft and apple sounded the alarm. I caught up with dan ives thursday. Tragedy, butjor view is that we have to look at if this impacts demand or changes dynamics for our winners. When i look at names like apple and amazon, even though this is going to be a very uncertain , thesen my opinion continue to be stocks we want to be owning. Emily facebook just canceled a conference that is three months away. Microsoft, hppple cutting their forecast. What will be the impact . Dan microsoft is a good example. Cloud continues to be something microsoft has kept on and 80 of the valuation is because of that. Microsoft is going to be a victim of the supply chain, but when i look out in 18 months, is this a name that i continue to believe is the best play . Views why i continue to these scary headlines. Winners and you said luckily selectively continue to buy them. You are not alone in that view. A number of analysts have rated but the question is how selective do you need to be . I have been telling clients all day. Our view is, you do scenario analysis. You pick your spots. You are continuing to own these names and buy at these levels if you believe in the fundamentals that we do. From our opinion, this is not the time to go into the bunkers. It is a time to look at your whiteboard. Look at the names you wanted to own over the last four or five months. When i look at a lot of these stocks, you have in five days, six or seven months of gains wiped out. It depends on which side you are on. There is obviously going to be the bears and more of the armageddon. They are not going to be buying high growth. In my opinion, this is more of a pause in the long term bull market for tech rather than the start of a darker time. That is our view. Paul in the short term, i am wondering if the risks around the supply chain are fully understood. When apple was the first one to fess up and then microsoft, that is something they tried to get their arms around. Fundamentally, it is such an unprecedented situation where the supply chain to your point, do we start seeing normalization in march, april, may . That is how you have to put the goal post. And we see some normalization starting in march, 5g super cycle remains. You have the 5g phones for apple, in december. But if you start to get into april, may, and later, thats where the supply chain impacts are more pervasive and you are seeing that reflected in stocks. Emily dan ives of wedbush securities. Coming up, disney just got a new ceo and it is a company veteran. We hear from the new and former guards of the magic kingdom. And if you like bloomberg news, listen to us on the bloomberg app, bloomberg. Com, and in the u. S. On sirius xm. This is bloomberg. This is bloomberg. Emily disney named bob chapek its new ceo this week, replacing bob iger, who will remain fair. It comes weeks after an upbeat earnings report. I spoke to the two executives shortly after the news came out. Its a great time to begin this transition. I was going to be leaving the company at the end of 2021. The board has been engaged in a process for quite some time. , we have somebody who knows the company very well, but he is also somebody we know very well could not think better candidate. Now, we havehy recently completed the acquisition of fox and have engaged in assimilating those businesses. We deployed a brandnew strategy, our direct to consumer strategy with disney plus, hulu, and hot star. Given the fact that our asset place, my next priority was really making sure that our greatest pipeline was as vibrant and rich as possible at the company, particularly given the new strategy. In order for me to concentrate on those pursuits of the company, i needed to turn over the reins to bob, to someone else, so that they could essentially run the company daytoday and do what i think and free me up to do what i think should be the priority at this point. It made perfect sense and creates a really smooth transition, given the fact that i will be around to advise bob when he needs it, and bring bob into some of the business he has not been familiar with. That gives me the opportunity to spend the time really working on our creative side. Emily bob chapek, day one for you is today. This is effective immediately. Bob talked you had to hit sequels bob talked about the streaming strategy, you had to hit sequels to toy story and frozen. You have opened the star wars portion of that the park, where do you intend to double down . Mr. Chapek i intend to double, the same strategies bob has established 15 years ago that served us so well. At the core of everything, the center of our brand is creative storytelling. If the creative storytelling is right, then Everything Else is right, no matter where you put it. Whether you put it in theatrical channel, disney or the theme parks. The thing i have taken away from bob igers legacy is getting the content right. Everything else will follow suit. Bely bob, you said you will focused on creative endeavors. Can you give us an idea of what things you will be focused on . Television, star wars. Mr. Iger creativity abounds the at the company, whether it is a Television Channel or our various movie studios, or all of the places that we create globally. There is a lot of creation outside the United States. I dont have any specific priority, but fueling the pipeline of our new direct to consumer business is very important to us. You know, given how large a role they will play in the future of the company. There is a lot to do. A lot of creative activity. It makes it exciting and separates his company from so many others in the business. Emily it is a Global Business, bob chapek, youll have to get used to being in the hot seat in answering a host of questions. The coronaviruss front and center. You have seen parks in china. Theme parks in china. Can you give us an update on the status of the parks there and what life is like for employees . Mr. Chapek we are not prepared to give an update on the impact of the coronavirus on our business. But what i will say is that when you have a brand as strong as us with tremendous franchises and builtin consumer demand, we know that when we are able to reopen, we will come back better and stronger than ever. Emily bob iger, are there any jobs out there that are of interest of you . Your potential political ambitions have been speculated about very much. What else might we see you do if not at disney . Mr. Iger i have not made any decisions about what comes after disney. I will have to use my imagination. Right now, i am concentrating on priorities we have talked about. I will not take my eye off the ball until i retire at the end of 2021. Emily you are leaving at a time when the coronavirus has markets in upheaval, a very competitive election in the United States, bob iger, what is your outlook on the macroeconomic picture in 2020 . Mr. Iger again, as bob said, i will not comment specifically about the impacts of the coronavirus. Obviously it is very unfortunate and we feel for all of the people affected by it. Overall, we thought that the world was quite a hospitable place for our company. As bob mentioned, our stories and storytelling are enjoyed the world over. Our businesses are doing well. The longterm process for our brands, franchises and businesses are looking quite good. We are obviously experiencing some very, very challenging times now, whether you are looking at the stock markets or just the Global Business environment due to this virus, but we view this as a serious situation. We also know it is not permanent. This country has always shown an ability to rebound from some of the Biggest Challenges that it has faced, and this is one of them. Emily bob iger and bob chapek of disney. Helping political candidates get around the rules. Thats next. And can Artificial Intelligence help detect Health Threats . This is bloomberg. Emily in politics, all eyes are on the South Carolina primary and super tuesday. Candidate sparred in the latest debate and we saw joe biden try to hold on to his lead. Backed byden has been strong support from africanamerican voters. To get perspective, paul allen denied spoke to a Political Science officer. Professor. This endorsement, traditionally, is critically important. Instrumental in support for barack obama over hillary clinton. I know it is important for joe biden who has not been doing so well in early states. Reason, it is critically important. Really well respected and joe biden is looking at a state where 60 of voters are africanamerican. Its 2020 and we are entering a brandnew era. Did these types of traditional endorsements even matter anymore . Nevada, we saw the culinary unions. Critical of Bernie Sanders and yet many of their members drove ranks with voted for him anyway. We just are not sure if these butrsements matter anymore, it sure mattered a decade ago and bided his hoping it will do the same for him. Emily sanders is still the front runner nationwide. Bloomberg is the founder of this network. Not on the ballot in South Carolina. He had a disastrous first debate. Some would say he improved in the second, but not enough. What are the chances of regaining some of the momentum he had . It is tough to come back from a difficult bait performance. Debate performance. He got better in the second debate, but hes not on the ballot in South Carolina. Hes running a campaign we have never seen before. Not just the amount of money he is spending, but the fact that he is not competing in these first four states. As we get to super tuesday, a third of delegates are up. Money he has and name recognition, he has a shot, but it is an uphill battle. Bernie sanders has a commanding lead over all others. Delegates to buttigieg in second place at 25. There are 54 delegates in South Carolina, which could put biden over sanders if he gets all of them, which is unlikely. We will see what happens with all of these other candidates who are in this moderate lane, so to speak. There is pressure on them. It is a do or die moment. You have got to perform or get out of the race and let the out. Runners battle it , joe terms of do or die biden has long in building up to this vote. How resounding does this need to be . Joe biden needs a strong firstplace finish. Think he will i sustain threw two super tuesday. To super tuesday. He is a far distant second to Bernie Sanders. If he cannot lead in us win a state where he is leading without endorsement, people are going to say, can he beat donald trump . That is the key question. I would say this is critical for , whoiden and tom steyer has spent so much time and money organizing. If he does not do well, he will have to step away. U. S. President ial candidates spend continue to spend online. Michael bloomberg, the owner of our Parent Company, is far rivals,ing rebels followed by trump and tom steyer. But these numbers do not tell the full story as advertisement in given loopholes political advertising. Mike schmidt is the founder of dovetail. Mike it is not new to me. I see tons of activity on sponsored content. We have been preparing for it and we have been thinking about intensely as a team at dovetail. We are a small company, so we have to be nimble and pick about these things more intrinsically and we have to be careful about how we position our says ourselves in this space because we are a neutral third party. It is becoming a big Opportunity Zone for us and a big area of interest for us, we also ask ourselves what are our responsibilities as a neutral Third Party Data company and Workflow Company that treats this ecosystem equally. Equally . Emily where do you draw the line . Where should the candidates draw the line if they are fighting loopholes that are loopholes and abide by Company Policies . Mike the answer to sponsored content, there is two reasons. One is the rising cost and Customer Acquisition on platforms like facebook and instagram and the diversity of advertising content. People want more places to advertise. At the end of the day, our strategy is to inform and educate. At the end of the day, people are just going to do whatever makes sense for their campaign. It is hard to stop these things as a company like ours, but what at the platforms like facebook, they have more responsibilities to crack down on content that is either fake, or misinformation or fake news. Specifically, there are Government Agencies that need to crack down on these issues as well. Paul regulation is a thing that comes up when discussing these matters. Do you believe there should be more, and which parts of sponsored content should it focus on . The platforms or the advertisers . Mike i think advertisers need to be held to a higher standard. If they are sending fake news or lying to customers on purpose, there needs to be more ramification for those types of customers, specifically on facebook and instagram. Whatsapp is becoming a new platform for advertisers as well. As we see more and more of these things come to fruition, we think about the responsibilities for instagram and facebook to collaborate with governments around the world. You see activity in singapore, in not only the u. S. , and i think zuckerberg making his opinion in the wall street journal, it is looking to me like he is becoming more in tune with some of these regulations. I think that, over time, this is the tip of the iceberg and we will have more and more regulations as we think about the future of this particular advertising. General, we are seeing improvement. Some people say it is not enough, some people think it is on pace to change the industry. We can always do more. I am a innovator, i have to think that way. When i think about improvements to the platforms themselves, how can we change the narratives narratives for election cycles . I want to make sure we are helping be ecosystem. At the end of the day, we are trying to educate and think about how we can be thought leaders and how can we get to the right solution because this is a tricky subject. Is there a role here for Machine Learning or ai in combating the fake news . Mike Machine Learning is a core piece of our pitch here at dovetale. I think about Machine Learning and Artificial Intelligence all the time. Everyone is scared about the situations we are in with Machine Learning in Artificial Intelligence. I think it is about perspective. Do you learning and Artificial Intelligence and make these things harder, easier, or do you think we will have an easy way to collaborate in the future . Deepfakes alone, sometimes i cannot tell the difference. As we look at data systems, privacy, more and more of these data systems, how can we be more educated as a society, and how can we understand the systems more . In general, people dont know how Machine Learning works or how data scraping works or how obtaining data works. Of course, data is a huge part of our business at dovetale. Making sure they can use and bots all work into the fold, but in general, what we find in our surveys is most people dont know how this data is obtained, nor do they know that facebook is the same company as instagram. There is a lot of education happening in the markets, specifically around Machine Learning. It should be introduced at more younger ages. More and more people should know how the systems work, and specifically how social networks make money. Emily mike schmidt there. Coming up, how Artificial Intelligence could help prevent the next outbreak. We speak to a Health Expert has created an Early Warning system who has created an Early Warning system. And if you like bloomberg news, listen to us on the bloomberg app, bloomberg. Com, and in the u. S. On sirius xm. This is bloomberg. Is is bloomberg. Emily welcome back to the best of bloomberg technology. Im emily chang. The World Health Organization says there are now more cases of the coronavirus outside of china rather than inside raising the questions of Early Warning systems. In boston was the first and try not flag the disease. Was the first to flag this disease. I spoke to dr. John brown, chief innovation officer who helped build the potential for ai and he future in future health practice. What is challenging is getting enough detail in real time. There is only so much Public Health agencies can do to track these creases cases. If you think about our interactions with social media and search queries, all that information is valuable, that it is messy. If we start tapping into that and getting insights, you can pinpoint early events before they bubble up. With the coronavirus, early signs came out of social media sites that were talking about this mysterious outbreak. It was only a dozen people that ultimately became this major event. But what we are able to see are small signals that would be challenging to look at from any government entities. Emily what does that tell you about the coronavirus now . We have been using our tool not just to identify the outbreak but to track it as it spread. If we can start to map out cases as they are identified across the globe, we can quickly feed that information to modelers, make projections and understand fatalities. We are seeing a huge amount of cases that are emerging that may be have not interacted with health systems. We know there are a lot of cases that are asymptomatic. We are trying to understand the spread in realtime to prepare governments for the inevitable arrival of the virus. Paul in terms of usefulness, emily pointed out that the virus three out ofd a three out of five and seriousness. Are there still some imitations to this . Absolutely. Ai is just a series of tools that Public Health has. It is really about the frontline workers. They need to process the information. We were communicating early on with the who about these events. They ultimately make the decisions about what kind of response to take on. You have to understand there are many outbreaks that happen on a daily basis that are identified. Unidentified. The challenge of looking at this event and deciding if they could turn into a global pandemic, it is a real challenge but it shows that these tools are identifying signals getting communicated and we have seen an incredible response both in china and the world stage. Paul to your point, before we started today, i was playing around with health map and i discovered a neighboring province in china got an avian flu outbreak. How do we weigh the seriousness of that . It is challenging. Within the u. S. , we are dealing with influenza. We know that it leads to credible mortality. There is still a push to get people to vaccinate. There is a major ability for us to handle a new virus plus the seasonal viruses that have sometimes a greater impact. The point of these tools is to provide transparency, hopefully encourage people to take the right precautions regardless of if its coronavirus created the coronavirus. The idea of hand washing, proper hygiene, all of these things are baseline Public Health that you should be practicing regardless of what kind of virus is around the corner. Emily John Brownstein of boston childrens hospital. Self driving cars big investment of this week. Toyota put millions into pony. Ai. The company has already launched a robo taxi service we spoke to the cofounder ceo. , the field remains quite competitive. Race, waymo,urrent its charging services in arizona, it is probably conceived as a frontrunner but the race remains open. Debate amongst all the companies but how they are judged. You test in the United States and china in a different environment. Where are you getting the best quality testing miles . Uniquenessce has its in terms of traffic patterns. Of the density of our cases, definitely guangzhou, china will have more during the daily routine of testing. Areywhere, traffic patterns different and driving behavior is a different. That is why we use the most extensive traffic patterns to train our models. James peng there. Alsoicial intelligence is helping to boost the imagination of consumers. Imagine trying on a pair of shoes before buying it online. That is the focus of a start up in l. A. That makes 3d shopping experiences. Assetsave seen that 3d give customers a better understanding of the product. 3derstanding the product in has proven to not only double Conversion Rates but significantly reduce returns. Beenssue is that it has expensive and timeconsuming to these assets. Pipelineuilt a robust to significantly reduce the time , helping save time and money in creating these assets. Emily looking good online is one thing, being able to try on a shoe is way off. Isnt it . Its not. It is here today with the advent of new phones most people watching watch the news release last year. That is all to do better tracking for augmented reality. If you look at warby parker, you can try on glasses. The issue is helping companies scale. Its one thing to do it for one or five products, its another for 25,000. Like adidas and nike launched 25,000 products a year and we help do it at scale. Emily these are your customers. Give us some specific examples of how technology is helping them. A great example is this client. They have over 4000 jewelry products. There is no way they could hire artists to create all 4000. They use our software to digitize their entire line. Example is a Company Providing turnkey hologram solutions. An 800es would send us megabyte file of their products. Its too big to put on the website where your phone and would traditionally take weeks of time to strip down. Our software can do that in a few minutes. Emily the goal here is to straddle the online and physical world. ,ets talk about the hologram something that has seemed futuristic. As you say, it may be closer than ever. If not here, then in some places. Talk to us about how this technology works. Company,e started the the phones were not capable yet. Of course, bramson wanted to leverage their celebrity endorsement deals and show off products. Products,t to these nobody had the proper 3d assets. Thats when we saw this area to innovate and help automate software. About what we are excited , now that we have all of these platforms. We are helping people create and distribute these assets at scale. , we continue up our look at how the coronavirus is affecting global markets. And later, grubhub goes above and beyond to compete. We have the story. This is bloomberg. Emily now to our continuing coverage of the coronavirus. U. S. Equities struggled to regain footing this week. Tech undoubtedly was caught up in the crosshairs. I asked against an author about this. He joined me tuesday. This was a disease they thought they had contained in the markets reflected that, and now it has broken out. We know this is more infectious than most flu type viruses. We know that there are past coronavirus is like sars. But the last ones we are comparing this to have all occurred when chinas economy was a lot smaller, and when our lines of supply to china were less influential than they are now. I think the markets reaction is correctional and this is a setback. And we dont actually know what it will mean, but if you are a tech company and your supply chain starts there, you have to approach this with caution. We do not know what is going to happen. And we are at the end of 12 years of market runs, so we cannot be terribly shocked if the market itself is a little bit fragile to a setback like this. I do not know if it will produce that, but smart investors are looking at this like the kind of black swan we have not seen for a while. Emily in the meantime, you have a rocky Political Climate in the u. S. , the race for the democratic nomination, Bernie Sanders confirming that he had been briefed by u. S. Intelligence at that the russians are trying to interfere with his campaign, you have the Vice President , joe biden, on 60 minutes, claiming that facebook is battling accounts tied to russia that are trying to attack him. Take a listen to biden on 60 minutes. They are involved in this race and in my primary. They are going after me on facebook. They have already been taken down, because putin knows me and he does not want me to be president. Emily you wrote the book on facebook, you have in part covered the fallout from russias interference in the 2016 election. How wellequipped is facebook and twitter now to counter potential interference and continued interference . Roger i feel like i am on a quadrennial version of groundhog day, because exactly the same things from 2016 have me focused on the danger that Facebook Post the ford posed elections, and they are happening again from the same people. The Trump Campaign has a sophisticated disinformation operation that runs internally. There is a network at George Washington university, that they have been analyzing, of fans of Bernie Sanders. Nothing happened after 2016 that after 2016 that shut these down, so they continue to operate without constraint. On top of that, you have Michael Bloomberg coming in with his own operation where he is flooding the zone with all kinds of things. The result of that is, even if the russians interfere it is not clear how much impact they will have because there is so much noise already. The challenge is this kind of stuff is really bad for democracy. We are not actually seeing real issues being debated at a point in time when these really matter, things like climate change, health care, they ought to be Commanding Center stage. What we are seeing is disinformation clogging things. And it is really too bad. Paul we do have to mention that Michael Bloomberg is seeking the democratic president ial nomination. He is the founder and majority owner of bloomberg lp, the Parent Company of us here at bloomberg news. But i do want to ask to what degree social media and fake news, two sides of the same coin, can they even be disentangled . Roger not at present. The real problem is the Business Model, which is based on attention. The whole idea is in order to command attention, you want to hit their emotional weak spots. For most of us, that will be fear and outrage. The best content for appealing to those things, things that people react to, will be hate speech and conspiracy theories. Exactly the things you do not want to have during a president ial election, frankly during any , kind of democratic election. As long as the Business Model stays in place, google, with youtube and facebook with instagram, are going to be a clear and present danger in these elections. Paul what kind of mark would you give facebook and twitter so far when it comes to addressing the problems we had in 2016 . I imagine not a good one. Roger facebook has made many small changes, largely cosmetic changes, which is a lot better than what we have seen from google. For all intensive purposes we have seen nothing from google. Youtube in particular, as well as gaming of the Search Engine google, those were huge issues in 2016 and nothing has been done to prevent that from happening in 2020. At where they tried to do a bunch of things, but it has not been helpful and the obvious things that twitter should be doing, because journalism, politics and celebrities all live on twitter, so disinformation there as an amplifying effect that is really dangerous. Twitter has shown itself of being completely incapable of dealing with it. Emily so what is your outlook for 2020 . We have the coronavirus happening, we have potentially massive economic impact, and we have the u. S. Political elections happening and we do not know how that is going to turn out, so how does that impact to some of these names, especially the big tech names that we follow . Roger quite clearly, the strategy employed by facebook and google in particular, where they basically take the position that they are equivalent to a sovereign nation, therefore should not be regulated, that has been working out fantastically for investors. Wereocks, until recently, trading at highs. They are persisting in that model and will, until a government shows it is powerful enough to regulate them, and none have been able to do that. What happens next is anybodys guess, because of the coronavirus ,in all probability it will turn out not to be the end of the world for us, but there is some measurable chance that 12 years into a market cycle, with china representing so much larger parts of the supply chain and demand, that it will turn out to be a big deal. In an election year, if you had some kind of declining activity, that will throw things up into the air. What is clear to me is we are not in the United States on a path that will lead us to the best election we could have under the circumstances, and it makes me incredibly frustrated because i have spent three years trying to call attention to the problem. Because everyone, it does not matter your political party, what your preferences are, we should all want to have elections be fair and decided by americans based on real issues. Where we are really addressing what needs to be done. Because there is huge Economic Opportunity in these problems, but we are not going to get to that if we cannot have an honest conversation about what we should be doing. Emily still ahead, grubhub rolls out the perks to ensure its dominance in the food delivery market. We hear about the new launch next. This is bloomberg. Emily the food delivery marketplaces crowded, and while many are slashing budgets, grubhub Just Launched a Membership Program full of rewards. But will it drive more revenue . And ceowith the founder about their plans to Grow Market Share with grubhub plus. The program is an order of magnitude more exciting than anything else out there. The predelivery is just gravy. We are doing 10 cash back. That is incredible. That is a huge amount of money that we are giving for ordering on our platform. It is an accumulation of a strategy that we outlined six months ago in our shareholder letter. We doubled the restaurants, we have the largest Restaurant Network in the country and it is about unparalleled rewards. We have hundreds of millions of dollars currently available for redemption on our platforms. Through our perks program, our rewards program and grubhub plus where we are giving cash back. Were leaning into profits to steal share from everyone else in the industry. So your position has been challenged by upstarts with big pockets from post mats post mates to breeds. Do you worry about the competition when they have a lot of cash . Its not as much cash as they used to have. The private funding market has dried up for Late Stage Companies post we work and its hard to find Equity Investors to write 100 million plus check. We are profitable. We can sustain this business for as long as profitable. We can cut back and sustain things like grubhub plus were we are giving users 10 cash back. Were attacking from a position of strength. While everyone else is slashing budgets to find profitability, promising at later in the year, we have profitability and we are giving away unparalleled rewards to consumers created. Emily as you say, grubhub has been profitable. He reported net income of 1 million for the quarter, but as are alsosaid, you willing to sacrifice profits. Losses . Oing to see what does that mean . For 2020, we are going to make 100 million net profit. That is arbitrary. We just said we want to prove to everyone we can still make a substantial a lot of money while being as competitive as we can. We pushed in the nonpartner delivery. We doubled our restaurants. We have the largest Restaurant Network in the country and we are doing these programs like grubhub plus where it is free delivery, 10 cash back, access to elite care teams, doubling the donations for members. It is an incredible experience. We are throwing everything against the wall, pulling out all the stops for consumers because we know we have the best platform. Emily lets talk about the competition. Many have said that all of these players cannot survive. Do you see consolidation in this business and if so, what makes sense . There are too many players losing too much money. Something is bound to happen. We have acquired 10 companies in the last 10 years. Acquisition is part of our growth strategy. By being as competitive as possible, pushing the envelope and stealing share, i think we are creating opportunity to buy companies in 2020. Emily the grubhub ceo and founder matt maloney. That does it for this edition of best of bloomberg technology. Tune in every day at 5 p. M. New york. We are livestreaming on twitter. Check us out and follow our global breaking news Network Quick take on twitter. This is bloomberg. Forthan from new york city our audience worldwide, i am jonathan ferro. Bloomberg real yield starts right now. Coming up, coronavirus fears sending markets into a tailspin. Central bankers showing little willingness to step in as corporate issuance drives up treasury yields hit record lows. We begin with the big issue. No signs Central Banks are ready to step in. What is the fed going to do . The fed is divided. They really want to take a wait and see approach. The fed is behind the curve. Coming into the year, they thought they would