Manus a warm welcome to bloomberg daybreak europe. The world is trying to reprice risk. The sentiment over the past three days has been clearly about either we are fools to reprice to the downside in the oil market or it is an opportunity, a resplendent opportunity, to reprice risk. Amri is chasing the Saudi Oil Minister as we speak. Spoke to a representative from the iea and their comments were interesting in terms of the downward pressure on the oil market. President trump said the world is watching. We are watching that geopolitics but as we wake up this monday morning, there is a little bit of risk coming back on the table. Thes more from one of Energy Delegates from the u. S. Later on. We are busting a few moves. The yuan strengthening. We can debate that with our guest. We busted through the 6. 9 levels. Goldman says you have gone through the trough in growth. You will see a stronger performance met year. We lean into yuan strength. This is about recalibrating risk. Oil had a cracking run, a fiveweek rally. Is standingrepublic down. Down goes the oil market. The question again is, is this one of those splendid moments to reengage with citigroup . The indonesian rupee. The uae has put nearly 23 billion into indonesia, giving that market a trade boost and fx boost as well. Nejra in terms of the oil story coming back to haunt some of those em currencies, the rupee, to, and peso vulnerable equity swings. Not roaring with riskon but certainly some green on the screen. Ondid see some weakness friday. A bit of an underwhelming jobs report in respect to wage growth. Futures on the front foot. Earningshead to a big week in terms of the u. S. Season two. We have 12 weeks of gains for the s p 500 so there is the context. Cable a little bit on the back foot. This after we heard a representative of the boe telling the ft he will vote for easing if there are no signs of the economy improving after the general election. Back to our top story, antigovernment protesters rally at and iran for a second night after tehran admitted its military accidentally shot down a ukrainian jetline. This came after days of denying it had anything to do with the incident that killed an hundred 76 people. Human error was to blame said the iranian army. Manus global condemnation followed Justin Trudeau demanded justice of the victims, 67 of whom are canadian. Volodymyr zelensky said he wants the results of a full investigation without artificial delays. Donald trump joined the chorus, tweeting in english and farsi his support for the iranians. Joining us now for more is our executive editor for the middle east. Is fascinating to see the global condemnation. We now have internal insurrection in iran. Definitely. It comes on the back of demonstrations that happened in iran a few months back as well, which were put down violently, so the combination of those demonstrations the unhappiness shows the pressure iran is under and now, this unhappiness, especially at the moment, seems to be focused on the way the government initially lied about what caused the downing what caused it to crash, the airliner. Now, we are having a second night. We are seeing some violence. It is hard to tell how big these demonstrations are and it is going to be quite hard to tell whether the regime will manage in cracking down as it did previously. Nejra our executive editor for the middle east, riad hamade, thank you so much. Joining us is Martin Malone. Great to have you with us on this monday. As we wake up to a new week where we saw a weekly gain for u. S. Equities at least last week despite all the tensions, how are you viewing the situation between the u. S. And iran at the moment . We have a detente, but the world is watching. Martin the situation is extremely complex. It has got a very long history. It goes way back to the 1950s. There is no Rapid Response to these issues. We will have to play it by the way we see it. Clearly, the National Security environment in the u. S. Has changed dramatically with the situation we have seen in the last couple of weeks. Political risk is much lower and geopolitical risk is much lower. Manus you talk about this, martin. Happy new you talk about lower global risk. That willular forces drive markets this year, you have a triple p. I ask you to choose one which will be the most dominant . Martin throughout the year, last year was basically policies around 16 Central Banks. Deescalation issues. I would say the political and geopolitical situation is one where the risk will be lower, not higher. Nejra why is it that you are so convinced we will see lower geopolitical risk in 2020, martin . What is it about the situation that tells you this is not going to escalate further and people will be caught wrongfooted . Martin it is not about being wrongfooted. Basically, even if we take the last one week or so, there was significant risk that we would get an escalation, and that has not happened. Is becauseason everyone is involved in the middle eastern region. This is a region which america, china, russia, and the middle east, and the europeans are actively involved. It is much larger than a middle east issue. All of the major players, for instance, we saw merkel with putin in moscow over the last couple of days. The chinese in washington. This is an area where everyone is involved. Manus absolutely and everyone has a vested interest. The proposition well talk more about oil in just a moment. Were measuring is gold my protection . We spent this week of intensity about buying and protecting our portfolios from risk of the downside. Given your base case, i take it you want to fade those protectionist moves and stack up on more risk, and if so, very briefly, is it fx risk, equity risk, or bond risk you want to take on the portfolio at this stage of the year . The top line. Martin absolutely. The top line is equity risk. We remain extremely bullish equities. We would expect the s p to target towards 4000. That is a 25 gain. We are not going to get that in one quarter. We are not going to get equal cultures. Our main issue is the timing of when we can maximize those gains over the next three to five quarters. Into martin, we will dig some of those calls shortly. Martin malone, our guest host for the next 52 minutes. First word news, Annabelle Droulers has that run down from hong kong. Annabelle thousands being evacuated in the philippines after a volcano erupted just 40 miles south of the capital. It triggered earthquakes and spewed ash across manila. Financial markets experts warn of hazardous explosion irruption. There are emergency plans to move up to 200,000 people. At revivinglooking some semiannual talks with china. We discussed the economic relationship between the two countries. To fixpast, they wanted specific disputes. The vice premier is heading to the u. S. Today and set to decide phase one of a trade deal on wednesday. Many shortcomings that the conclusion of a report on hong kongs police conduct. The economic journal says may find a lack of communication and no clear guidelines when firing tear gas. The report has not been officially released but it could be made public in the next few weeks. In taiwan, president has won a landslide victory. The people of taiwan reject chinas call for one country, to systems. She says taiwan will refused about the pressure from its neighbor but any move to formal independence is unlikely. Beijing says taiwan is part of china, whatever happens. Global news, 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. This is bloomberg. Nejra . Nejra Annabelle Droulers in hong kong, thank you so much. Up next, we will take a look at the events you should be looking out for this week, including u. S. Bank earnings and chinas gdp figure for the Fourth Quarter, manus. Manus and after a tepid december for u. S. Jobs report, gold futures advance to a session high. More on that story very shortly. This is bloomberg. Manus this is bloomberg daybreak europe. I am manus cranny in dubai. Nejra i am nejra cehic in london. U. S. Bank earnings season. Citigroup, bankamerica, and jp morgan, which led the performance, are among the first to report. That is after airbus delivered a record 860 three commercial aircraft, manus. By wednesday, Vladimir Putin will make his state of the union address. Friday, we get chinas gdp figure for the Fourth Quarter. Two days after the longawaited signing. Phase one china trade deal. After erasing most of its gains last week. That is easing geopolitical tensions in the middle east. They have turned their attention back to the flood of new supply to hit the market this year. The iea executive director also expects the abundance of oil this year. He spoke to me at the Atlantic Council and Global Energy forum in abu dhabi. There will be a surplus of more than one Million Barrels per day, looking for buyers, because production is growing from the United States, brazil, norway, lots of oil compared to the markets. Manus lots of oil. That is what we all need to remember. Martin malone is with us. He was at pains to point out this glut of supply and that my attention needs to come back. Gtvou look at the library, middle east how fools rushed into dissipate geopolitical risk in this oil market . Do you think he is right . The glut of supply . Martin i think he is spot on and it is not just for this year. We have a glut of supply for that situation and that is why oil fell back. Now less than 60 because of what he pointed out, the excess supply situation. Barrels. On 5 million they want to get up towards nine. They are the largest share of global oil. For the last four weeks, net Energy Exports out of america. The Energy Situation has seen a dramatic change, and opec plus, as you know, do have supply cuts in place simply because of the excess supply situation. Nejra talking about 2020 shaping up to be a better year for commodities than previously feared. He said many commodities should see demand squeezing the limits of supply and pushing prices higher. Would you agree with that for commodities other than oil, perhaps some of the metal markets, giving your bullish views . Martin all of these commodities have already had a sharp one up. Palladium and everything, which was involved in the technology sector. The food prices because of the swine fever situation in china, quitemetals, we have seen a significant uptick. This is all related to economic stability. Global growth should be picking up this year. It is to do with deals like geopolitical deals were trade deals, so just the stability factor is the factor where we will be quite happy with oil prices to move sideways. That will bring investment into the energy sector, which large parts of the open want to see. On theno explosion upside in oil prices. There is a piece this morning which expounds the view that a spike in oil prices gives the fx won, ande rupee, the the peso. , and as trade on oil pretty robust upside. Do i go along em via the fx space or perhaps by the bond space . How do you play it . Martin em fx is a very good area to focus on for the First Six Months of this year simply because, in 2019, Central Banks were cutting rates, especially within the em space, and we have this global trade war, so em fx underperformed significantly last year, and the bond market in em rallied tremendously. Em bondn positive space. Em currencies, a very Good Opportunity for the first half of 2020. Nejra where would you see the best opportunities . Martin brazilian real. Has underperformed because of situations in brazil but also the trade issue and its connection with Global Energy space like iron ore. We would expect the brazilian real as a key focus at the moment. Manus just to sort of round this off, if i go back to the seven red flags, base case is that things will get a little bit better. Geopolitics in the middle east could bring some ups and downs. Trade policy will be one of the good things. What he does warn is about food driven byation spike china. Are you worried about global inflation or idiosyncratic inflation in any particular economy . Martin the quick answer is no. Basically, inflation, we are still in a disinflationary world for several factors. The specific spike in inflation we have seen on food prices in china has seen the headline inflation rates jump to 4 . They will be closer to 2 by the end of this year, and actually, that sequencing will allow the Chinese Central Bank to continue monetary easing. We have seen a small amount of liquidity easing from the Chinese Central Bank. We will see more reserve ratio cuts and liquidity as we go on throughout the year. They will need that because gdp could be a 6 number for the Fourth Quarter on friday, but less than 6 gdp numbers is probably likely at some stage in 2020. Nejra we will definitely pick back up on china later. I want to build on inflation. A number of people said the market is very much underpricing inflation risk. No one is looking at it so we want to put some trades on around that, particularly their chief at the moment. Would you want to be doing that at all . Convinced about the disinflation that it is not part of your strategy at all . Martin it is not part of the strategy as a key focus simply because if we want to play inflationary upside, we prefer the Margin Expansion issue. We played on an equity space rather than inflation risk. That is not really our key focus. Nejra Martin Malone of alpha book staying with us. Annabelle droulers in hong kong. Sachs looksoldman to double its headcount in china over the next five years. It will raise its number of jobs in the country to 600. The state of hiring will hinge on beijing fulfilling its pledges and opening up its financial market. Goldman is also planning a new Management Unit in mainland china. It is not the only International Lender expanding in the nation. We have already had a substantial presence, but that is over the medium term. ,hat will continue to grow particularly for the banking side. I think we will definitely be adding as well. Annabelle aston martin is making a lastditch effort to bring in fresh funding. We have learned a canadian billionaire is close to committing a 200 Million Pounds stake in the luxury carmaker. They are in talks. Lotus, and volvo, family. That is your Bloomberg Business flash. Nejra, manus. Manus thank you very much for rounding up the news flow for us. Coming up on the show, it has been a long time in the gold market, posting the longest streak of weekly advances since last summer. That trade has just been busted. The gun tohas moved reprice. We will give you the details with a chart that matters. That is coming up. Gulbis morning as being one of the markets, just one of the markets, which is repricing global risk. This is bloomberg. Nejra this is bloomberg daybreak europe. I am nejra cehic in london. Manus i am manus cranny in dubai. Investors looking for direction in the markets. They look at gold. The specter of ongoing geopolitical risks. Rereading and repricing every day. Dani burger has a chart that matters. Is the rally in gold over . That is the question investors woke up asking themselves this morning after a week of volatility in the precious metals. Just looking at the price action of what happened, last week, gold briefly topped 1600. It currently is still about 1500. That is where analysts predict the precious metal will last in the First Quarter of 2020. You can see the price of gold has stalled after the rally on the middle east tensions. Even so, we are seeing analysts upgrade their outlook for gold. Hsbc thinks the precious metal will move above 1600. Any sort of tension, shortlived risks, means we see a spike in the metal. We have seen Money Managers upgrade their outlook. Most long on gold and four months. A lot of confusion on exactly where the metal will end up. For now, we are still seeing gold rally above hundred dollars. Nejra dani burger, thank you so much. If theres any confusion, Martin Malone is still with us to dissect. We saw the slowest fullyear job gains since 2011. Wages rising the least since mid2018 so very underwhelming jobs report. What are you looking at below the surface that tells you whether we are at full employment yet . Martin the wider measures for employment are much more important. For the whole year of 2019, we created over 2 million jobs. The ninth Consecutive Year in america to do so. A muchmployment wider measure. It performed very strongly on friday. We expect that to continue to perform during 20 20 and that spread between the headline of unemployment and underemployment or crowded in from the nonlabor force. Its going to be a key issue in the late part of the Economic Cycle in america to focus on throughout the year. Manus Martin Malone, we have to give a big shout out to the queen of charts, hillary. Hillary clark. This is the differential that you say i need to focus on. I am in trouble now for naming her in a different way. What do you make of that differential . Why does that matter . Martin that matters for the entire economic efficiency, Economic Performance of america, and you can see that chart has seen a significant convergence and that convergence directly relates to a technical economic factor called the output gap. Was 4 . 009, it it is now positive. Trending towards plus one. We need to see the wider measures of employment and underemployment to perform and that spread will continue to tighten and thats very good news for economic efficiency in america. We will get that out of you before the end of the show. Martin malone stays with nejra and myself. Coming up, a landslide victory. Taiwans prodemocracy party a clearclear wins majority. The ramifications for beijing. This is bloomberg. Hey. Hey. You must be stevens phone. Now you can take control of your home wifi and get a notification the instant someone new joins your network. Only with xfinity xfi. Download the xfi app today. Nejra good morning from bloombergs European Headquarters in the city of london. I am nejra cehic with manus cranny, from dubai. This is bloomberg daybreak europe. These are todays top stories. Manus no respite. Second night of protests rip iran after the government admits it absently shot down a ukrainian jetline. Landslide. Taiwan reelects a president who vows to defend it stopping to sovereignty. The ruling party employed dirty tactics, they say. We are in dubai. It is a big week for china. The United States looks set to trade phase i deal. J. P. Morgan kicks in tomorrow. Nejra calm over u. S. Iran tensions. We look ahead to the signing. Green on the screen for asian equities and u. S. Futures in the green after weakness on friday after the underwhelming jobs report. Japan markets close which means we dont have the cash treasury trade. Thats more to focus on with our Global Markets team around the world. Manus absolutely. A little bit more appetite for risk. Lets put it in context. Juliette saly in singapore. To our partners. Dani burger is in london. Lets kick it off with you. Reaction to taiwan assets. Tonys assets. Taiwanese assets. Juliette we have seen the taiwan dollar rise to june 2018 highs. Well,nd the taiex as close towards the 30 year highs. You have seen a lot of buying coming through in the likes of biotech and Energy Players but we have been seeing some weakness in the tourism sector. Than ag the most in more year. Ahead of the election in china, we saw them ban travel to taiwan. A stronger taiwan dollar. Also negative for tourism stocks. Overall, the taiex close to 30 year highs. The highest is a couple hundred points to get to that level. Nejra juliette saly. Infosys. Ooking at it cleared the ceo after whistleblower claims. Niraj good morning to both you and manus. It is probably one of the reasons why the index is up about 1. 5 . It has underperformed some of his larger peers because of the overhang of the investigation. That stock is up 4. 5 . It is outperforming the index by a wide margin. Indiceshmark getting a leg up. Lets see if this rally lasts into the next few days as well. Manus thank you very much. Lets take it to you. You have had your chart with gold. Tell me about sterling. An issue close to my heart. A little bit of slippage in the price. It is about volatility. Would love some sterling volatility this morning. Finally calm for investors. Look at last week when Boris Johnson tasked his brexit measures with little fanfare and we are seeing that reflected in how traders are treating the pound. One year volatility is slowest since 2014. That is about 7 , realized around eight point 3 . Investors see sterling getting more calm from its current level thanks to politics at least for the time being. Drama gone. Manus, nejra. Nejra juliette saly, niraj shah, and dani burger. Great work. Lets turn back to taiwan and the elections over the weekend. A landslide majority. Ae victory is seen as rejection of beijings push for one country, to systems. Lets head over to taipei where Stephen Engle is with aghast. Wait to see you. Lets take it away. Stephen thank you very much. Our guest is a dpp lawmaker who is the Foreign AffairsNational DefenseCommittee Chairman in the legislative yuan here. Congratulations on your victory as well in your district. We want to answer some of the questions that the whole world and the Investment Community is looking at. You tweeted after the victory of wer party, through voting, reaffirm that taiwan is a sovereign nation. That is a redline for beijing. When anyone here on taiwan talks about sovereignty and independence, what the investors around the world want to know, has the risk level for a possible confrontation with china increased now . Iswe think everything chinese redline. We make friend, we see other country, we join the international community, even Something Like that. Beijing, chinese communist, they always yield to taiwan. We have friends in the United States. The assistant secretary to taiwan, they say. Lets break the rules. To taiwanese people, we face the china straight. We know their attitude. To look to china. Ou have to understand we have our sovereignty, our military. Chinese people come to taiwan, they need to apply for a visa. Basicallyeijing has resisted or kept quiet from your overtures for dialogue because they do not want to give the dpp any legitimacy. Are you seeing any cracks from the bellicose rhetoric we do get from beijing saying there is only one china and that will not change . Stephen sometimes, it is not worth it. Sometimes, it is some had of decision, some kind of move. Election, more than one oppose thatle president. That sent a very strong signal. More than 8 million actually. Is i want to keep our life. Rights of choice. Our own president. Our own legislators. High. Storical send a message. There is one signal. One signal happening yesterday. Years, taiwan always tried to help or get some information on china. For example, they win. It is serious. We try to help, try to get some information. It happens in china. We tried to cooperate with them. They dont reply. They reject in public. Nejra you got a reply yesterday. Wang yesterday. Yesterday. Some kind of pneumonia. Our Health Department officers say we want to know whats going on. Expert . End our yesterday, just last night. The Chinese Government sent a reply for the first time. Stephen the day after the election, you had a reply from china. Before, you have nothing. That is significant. Lets talk about defense spending because you are the chairman of the defense of National Security committee. Theres threats that china wants to reunify. This cannot be something that passed generation to generation. If it does not happen through peaceful means, it will happen through force. What will be your defense priorities . Wang we had to Say Something they understand. Choosing in some military way. High. St will be too not trying to compete with china. We dont want to be the world superpower. Stephen you have a 12 billion defense budget. China has 250 billion. You have been approved for f16s. Is there other hardware you need from the United States . Ing we have a shortage submarines. We need that. We have built in our own submarines. I believe we can have one within three years. Using military force to be unified with taiwan. They dont have that capability for now, so we need to shorten this gap. 2023, important time. Are sent to, we taiwan. The new one was sent to taiwan. 2023, our first submarine, we try to organize our military organization. We do not want to cause any trouble, but we have confidence to protect our home, our country. To protect taiwan. The only one to take responsibility. Our friends help. Thank you. We understand. Responsibilities on our shoulders. Join thewill taiwan big military exercises this year . Perhaps you could do it and it could be in the south china sea. The islands. S in that would be very provocative to china. Very you mentioned a important question. In asia, the end of pacific, only two countries get invited to join the pack. North korea and taiwan. How can taiwan be according to the United States , we do hope this year, 2020, we join it. It is not a military exercise. Especially to china. We have cooperation. Do not do stupid things. You cannot afford it. Risk of is the confrontation higher now or lower . Wang lower. Stephen wang tingyu, lawmaker and chairman of the influential Foreign Affairs and National Defense committee in the legislative yuan. Back to you. Manus guests that can answer in one word. Stephen engle, our chief north asia correspondent. Martin malone is looking into that interview. He is still with us. Contextualize china. China to the fx markets, theres a lot of geopolitical risk with china. Theres economic risk. One thing which is very obvious this morning is the strength in the yuan. Many would say it offset the tariffs but if you look at the up 4 sinces september. Lets have a look at the chart. Does that continue into the rest of the year . What could unseat the momentum . We could see a devaluation risk if we see increased frictions with the u. S. And china but as we can see, we will have a deal on wednesday and we are going to have further dialogue and further phases of this deal, so i think it is quite unlikely we are going to a new phase of increased friction. It is the direct opposite. Easingly, china is fiscal policy, monetary policy, so it is quite natural for the for the to catch a bid stabilizing factor but also to manage it. Nejra the enforcement. If there is any difficulty in enforcing chinas side of the bargain with phase one, would you expect the u. S. What would you expect the u. S. s approach to be . Martin the enforcement mechanism, which bob lighthizer, who is the key actor in washington, and an expert on these issues at the wto level and historically with the u. S. China trade deals going back to the 1980s, the enforcement mechanism is the key part, so america will hold the stick over china for a good focus on this deal. If you step aside from this deal, they can put back sanction policy. The key issue is sanctions have been quite a successful policy from the trump administration. Manus martin, hold those thoughts. A little bit more to get through. Martin malone, our guest host. Let me take you to in saudi arabia. Annmarie hordern is on location. You have got this gathering. The International Technology conference taking place. Has beenman of aramco making comments. Saudi aramco chairman says oil has missed some serious competition. It is safe for the moment. This is bloomberg. Manus bloomberg daybreak europe, i am in dubai. Nejra i am nejra cehic. Here is what you need to know today. Manus lets get this set up. Everybody needs to know a little bit about ubs. A fairly big year for the offshore chinese bond issuance in 2020. The asiapacific head of investment banking. He spoke to bloomberg. People have to be realistic typese after the we work of issue, investors will be more cautious. They will be buying anything and everything. With that, the companies will definitely come to the market so we are very hopeful. Manus Tom Mackenzie has been on the ground. He is our china opens coanchor. Good to see you this morning. Progress in terms of opening up the Financial Sector, myth or truth . Tom its true. This is one sector where there is concrete evidence that things are moving forward. The timetable has been outlined by lawmakers and officials, policymakers, and it is being implemented through 2020. Those Foreign Investment banks will be able to have majority ownership by the end of this year across areas like Asset Management and futures and securities, and that is why you are seeing the likes of ubs and others all doubling down in terms of expanding their footprint in china. We were speaking at this ubs Greater China conference. They say they are confident that they can double the headcount between now or in the next three years to five years. There is this fight for talent. We are seeing it with goldman sachs. They came out with a line saying they will double their headcount over the next five years to 600 individuals on the mainland. J. P. Morgan is expanding their offices in the city of shanghai. Nomura as well. There is a competition as the Financial Sector starts to open up. It was interesting in terms of what we are expecting for 2020. David chin saying he is seeing greater appetite for his overseas clients to add ashares to their portfolios as well as chinese bonds. He is expecting the ipo pipeline to pick up an m a activity as well. Manus great work on the ground. Tom mackenzie, our Bloomberg China coanchor rounding up the flow from the ubs conference. In saudi arabia, you have the Technology Conference taking place. This is the saudi minister. We want to hear what he has to say about the iranu. S. Conflict. Annmarie hordern is on the ground. We will bring you those comments as soon as we get them. This is bloomberg. Nejra this is bloomberg daybreak europe. I am nejra cehic in london. Manus i am manus cranny in dubai. Could European Economic growth surprise to the upside . N thinks so. Dani burger has your morning call. Dani europe has been under loved according to jeffries, which cites the under ownership. They think that is about to change. Of aies says it is in need pasta reset with valuations as high as they are. In the meantime, investors will move into europe. They see the fiscal pursestrings about to open. Corporations have moved into deficit spending. That investment spending will help europe escape the fate of japanification so the economy is going to continue to surprise to the upside. Manus, nejra. Nejra Martin Malone of alpha book is still with us. Jeffries point to the high valuations in the u. S. , and for the s p 500, that valuation is close to the 2018 meltdown levels. Why are investors so comfortable with u. S. Valuations at this point . Is it because they expect growth to pick up . Is it because corporate profits for the Fourth Quarter are expected to be the trough . Martin a combination of all of those factors. It is simply the outperformance of america. ,merica has a macroeconomic set fiscal set, which is significantly greater than europe, and this is the reason why you have to be so overweight the european sector, and we just continued to see the u. S. Market expand its share of Global Equities to around 42 . That can go higher. Levels can go above 20. The problem that they have is that europe is going to be under a lot of strain to trigger some type of response and get their own house in order. Manus long live the rally. Me earlier onh during my daybreak middle east show and the most interesting thing i heard during that conversation was do not fight the central bank. The feds Balance Sheets, without the feds Balance Sheet, we would be in an imminent recession area. I find that quite shocking that it has taken this move up in the Balance Sheet to prevent an imminent recession. That is quite a call, isnt it . Martin i would not agree, first of all. The expansion in the feds Balance Sheet is liquidity over the yearend, and if the u. S. Needs to ease further in 2020, we can have a rate cut. If they need to do anything, if there is downside risk, they do have their Balance Sheet to switch on. We are looking at a 2. 5 gdp number in america. Europe is 1 . That number in the u. S. Could be three, except for the problem with boeing, so there is a significant drag coming from specific issues in america, so i would not agree with that assessment. Nejra bank of america, they are saying watch highyield bonds, chipmakers, homebuilders, and financial shares, because underperformance was a prelude to the top. I assume youre not putting all your eggs in the basket . Where else are you offsetting risk . Martin there was a significant opportunity. 5 ofstance, in 2019, 70 the Global Equity gain. In 2019. Ic year on Global Equities, 75 of the game came from u. S. , china, japan, and saudi arabia to aramco, which kicked them in there. There is a large number of stock markets which have not actually contributed a lot in the last 12 months, so theres a lot for investors to look at in different areas. Manus thank you very much for sharing your thoughts with us. Hief Economic Advisor and reordering speaks to the aramco ceo. The First Time Since the companies ipo. That conversation and a host of voices. Good morning. Welcome to bloomberg daybreak europe open Bloomberg Markets european open. Mattanna edwards alongside miller in berlin. Futures are looking at that are pointing higher after a gain in asian equities overnight. The trade across europe is just one hour away. Anna no