Like Companies Like facebook and apple. Regulation, legal and legislative hurdles continue for technology, especially for overseas apps like tictoc, we will hear from Marsha Blackburn on how much more needs to be done. We begin this hour with tesla, its stock has been on a runaway rally for the latter part of the year, last year we saw shares reaching 420. Analysts recently raised his price target by 100 to 370. We are going to discuss whether tesla turnaround is working. You look backif at the last six months, it has been massively impressive, what musk has been able to do in terms of turning this around, have a base case of 370, at bulky its to 600. If they are able to execute over the next quarter to this china thesis, and theres an upward to trajectory, you could see it go higher. This gets us to a base case, i think both cases have 600, and a lot that rests on china. I have spoken to a few theral bearish analysts in last few weeks, they are concerned about demand in china. Do we have any sense of what could happen, may be economy starts to slow, but could happen that could make you turn a little more bearerish bearish . The question is how quick could you get to 100 k in china . Could that be quicker than in the u. S. Or europe . If the answer is yes, and this is something that could kick start us to the next level. In terms of the bear thesis, some regulatory road block in china, you have competition that slows down the underlying demand story in china, that would be the bare piece. Have talkedyou about this a lot over the last months, many of the bears to what they have done over the last few quarters, we have to give them credit. There is a parabolic short squeeze, but china will be the next leg of the gross story. Isso much of the thesis based on the model threes, but that is the least profitable of all the models. At what point will we see it shift to some of the more profitable models . Model y will come out next nxp and well you have s snx. What has been key to the tesla bowl thesis and the stock going 330, wasnow to profitability. There getting profitability encore model threes. Software soft and upticks within the actual versions, you need to see that fromare version selfdriving to others, that is an extra 7000, 10,000 per car. That will really be the key that grows margins for tesla over the coming quarters. Dan has stayed with me because we have a lot of lot to discuss. Theuesday we reported that 43yearold step down from ubers board. He also sold all of his remaining tariffs shares in the ridesharing giant. Following months of chaos and controversy, kalanick now says he wants to focus on new business and philanthropic endeavors. I asked ives and rob stone about the move. It does not simplify things anymore than were simplified 2017. 0 17 he was the largest shareholder and he was on the board, but he was clearly focused more on cloud kitchens. He started selling the stock in early november after the ipo lockup expired. This was a slowmoving divorce. From what i hear, traviss voice was not all that loud in the last two years. It does codify things that have been underway. Taylor did anything change for you on tuesday . It ended a dark chapter. Soldlk about someone who nearly 3 billion worth of shares. It has been an overhang on the stock and it would have been awkward if he had stayed on the board. Fundamentally, it speaks to uber being a train wreck since the ipo. This was the final chapter. Or investors, the hope is optimism going into 2020. Pressure for his successor to succeed. You look at it were, that is the issue right now. Look at some of the issues they face. Right now there is a lot of worry going into 2020. Taylor brad, you are nodding your head, what are some of the issues they will be facing . It boils down to profitability. This is a company that is 12 years old. , ridesharing in north america, growth has slowed. Investors want to see growth in the newer geographies. Uber eats is now 20 of ubers bookings. It comes out of it as a business that can be profitable. Cha he has been the ceo for two years. Investors want to see it get there. Taylor investigate investors do want to see it. If you want to look at a graph that i am looking at in my yft are bother and l down. Huber has been on an uptrend in early december. What is the bullish thesis for oberg . You look at growth, and not but 2 , 3 . , monetize that going forward. If you look at growth and profitability in 2021, but when you look at uber eats right now, that is what i view as an eight dollar to 10 overhang on the stock. Do they cut that business or significantly get to a point of profitability . This is been the anchor on the ship. Investors right now, it continues to be a heartburn situation. Execution, overhang, as well as has miscommunication, that been the trifecta. Andor that was brad stone dan ives. With just a few days left until 2020, dan ives will tell us what his top calls are for next year. That is next. If you like bloomberg news, check us out on the radio. You can listen on the bloomberg gap, bloomberg. Com, and on siriu s xm. This is bloomberg. Taylor now we are coming up not just on the end of the year, but the conclusion of a decade. I spoke with wedbush managing director dan ives to hear his forecast for 2020. It is a continuation of our thesis playing out from this year into next year in terms of the super cycle. It comes down to the math. 900 million iphones, one third of those, 100 50 million of those have not operated in nine months. 5g is going to be on the tail end of that. That, this is a rereading stock that continues to go higher, i think 350 is i continue to look out 2, 3 years, you could see a stock that begins to approach 2 trillion, 3 trillion in terms of that core thesis playing out over the next years. Taylor what if the super cycle does not materialize . That is the bare thesis. We have been there before, what if 5g is a bust, especially on andlook at the iphone 11 the trajectory going into later this year. I can tell you about our work that we have done in asia, the line in the sand is about 2 Million Units for the 5g cycle. All indications are that that will be a strong product cycle. There can be speed bumps and we will of courts hit them course hit them, but the visibility looks as strong as we have seen it. I would have to go five or six years in terms of where i have seen it. That is why it is such a bold thesis in terms of service and rereading. Taylor if we going to Balance Sheet analysis, im looking at another that shows net cash. What is the best use of cash . They generated 60 billion of cash flow. Theyre going to get vertically integrated. They will buy more technology. The intel 5g acquisition. I can see more of those. Content will be what they go after. I believe that they will acquire a studio in 2020, along the mgm lionsgate, a handful of others that would fit the bill, because right now content is key. When you look at the streaming tv service, that is something that they hope to acquire. They will continue to do buybacks significantly, but i do believe cupertino gets more inuisitive in two into 20 2020. Taylor according to the bloomberg terminal, you still have an outperform rating on microsoft. I keep hearing that there products will benefit more than amazon to the shift from cloud. Do you agree . Dan it continues to be our top spec top pick. Covering techion, for 20 years, it is one of the most draw dropping turnarounds i have seen for any tech draw dropping turnarounds i have seen for any tech company. That. Urthered narrow it was amazon and bezos, they won that. The next phase, it is microsoft. That is why in my opinion, this is a rereading stock. Numbers continue to go higher. We are only halfway through this cloud story playing out for azure and redman. Taylor that was dan ives. For more 2020 predictions on the tech center tech sector, i abcjoined by mahaney of capital. It is unpopular, it is a failed ipo, it has this business that is losing a lot of money. Nobody wants to buy uber. You think the story will get better and better as we go thought the deer. Dislocated stock is more likely to have an upside like facebook had. With this company has to do is bring down operating losses every quarter. We think they well. Into 21, we 20 and think they will be breaking even. You want to buy a stock that is going through that kind of inflection order. Will these are probably joined at the hep. It is hard to see one outperforming the other. Shorterterm oriented funds have lyft because it is just in the u. S. Market, but uber has more levers to pull. Also have 70 market share in the u. S. Typically the company with a larger market share determines economics. I do not think that will be implemented immediately. I think this is a court fight. We think that this could lead to a midsingle digit increase in their cost structure. There are two hedges here. Yft give out a lot of subsidies to drivers. If youre giving the benefits, there is not a need to hand out subsidies. I want to come and take a look at number two and number 3 google and facebook. With all of the regulatory hangs, google and facebook are number two and number three. Regulatory fears have been rising for a couple of years. I think we are close to peak regulatory fears. I think it is highly unlikely that these assets get broken up, in which case we have already seen the worst of it. On bothn fines imposed companies. The interesting angle long google is as its Cloud Business has finally gotten scalable and big enough, it might be less of a drag on with the two cofounders stepping aside, they we may get more rationality in their investment spending. Taylor are you thinking facebook is poised to see higher ad Revenue Growth than google . Dan absolute absolutely. If two things coming up this year i think they call it the quadrennial. You have the olympics and the elections. I think both companies will materially benefit from that. Name, another big tech noticeably absent on your list, is amazon. Where is amazon . An overhanghere is there. It is a buy versus a medium by. Asbuy a longterm asset, it is great. The overhang on the stock is this a ws. We end investors want to see a clearing of the air before we get more aggressive on the stock. Taylor that was mark mahaney of abc capital. We workhaps perhaps this years biggest ipo flop. We will see what is the future for this company. Later we will hear from one of tictocs biggest u. S. Connects about the changes that she wants to see from the viral video app. This is bloomberg. In our series, big tech 2019 rewind, we look at the Worlds LargestTech Companies and the challenges they have faced in the last year. We went from having a 47 billion valuation and being the darling of the Venture Capital world to needing an 8 billion infusion to avoid running out of money. The start of this year, the we company was broken up into three distinct business lines, we work, we live, and we grow. We work said it would go public in september. September came, and the company was said to consider a valuation between 20 billion and 30 billion in its ipo. At the end of the month, the ipo was delayed and adam neumann step down. A 9. 5nk came in with billion dollar rescue plan for 80 of the company, and earlier this month, we work clinched 1. 7 billion in funding led by goldman sachs. For more on its performance in 2019 and what lies ahead for we work in 2020, i spoke to read wallace and phil haas let. I think that there has been much expels about the situation. Our perspective on it was fairly straightforward the lost profile of the company was so big, but investors needed to do work to find out how they would not be losing 2 billion a year basically. Youre out year in, spent two dollars for every dollar of revenue it generated. Our perspective is if the disclosure had been different, you had could have had a different response. Then there were the unforced errors of the governance staff. Nothing we have heard from our customers suggested that the core proposition of we work was objectionable. It was how the offering itself is handled. Taylor what is your take, fail . This is the straw to break the unicorns back, the First Company to go public with theres a difference between being a Technology Software company and being a tech enabled company. This was the big breaker between between lyft and uber. Taylor you mentioned that had the information been presented differently, the ipo might have been able to stand a chance. What would you have liked to have seen differently in that offering statement . The tragedy is that the company has a sense put out all of that information. There is a 40 page deposition ipis. Ll of the it is heartbreaking to see that they had it all along, they just decided it is not clear what the reasons work to give investors the benefits that the private investors had. What phil said is right in the sense that investors know how to sum up a company. Toompany that is not easy evaluate requires a burden of proof to give people the stuff that they would need to do extra work for. Especially at this magnitude were talking about a very Large Company and a very large transaction. Sadly, the metrics were all on hand and are all now public. That theyey have said want to be had they come out and say we are a real estate company, we do not want to be valued as a tech company. With a have been able to get the money . But not to the scale that they did. He mentioned, what this brings to the front is that there is a slew of Enterprise Companies that are comparable to things in the market with great margins and Revenue Growth and hopefully profitability as well that the market is going to get really excited about. Taylor we fastforward this conversation to present day the cost cut measures that you have seen so far . Are they enough . Thet is hard to say what daytoday operating plan is in there now. You have a company that is basically going to be private for some time, even though it is making disclosures beyond what a private company would do. Beenthe company we have looking at this company that there are a lot of smart, capable people around the company. I would be surprised that given the parade of wakeup calls we have had their if the company did not really that itself back on track that makes sense as opposed to the optics that were put forward to market when they try to go public in the fall. The other thing we could say about we works impact on the market is a lot of people worried that it would take the tech market down with it. Luckily with another names that we have seen recently, we work has been quarantined into being its own thing. It is not really representative of the kind of mainstream Tech Companies that a lot of people are looking for to see come to the market in 2020. Taylor that was Rhett Wallace and phil haslett. Tictoc is a National Security risk. Marsha blackburn has called it chinas best detective. We will hear what she said after tictoc made some changes. Bloomberg technology is livestreaming on twitter. Check us out at technology. This is bloomberg. Taylor welcome back to the best of bloomberg technology. West lawmakers have been after the popular viral video app for a variety of reasons. The Chinese Company tictoc has been the target of data privacy concerns as well as a review another thing they are concerned about is that tictoc allows appdren to make in purchases, something Marsha Blackburn highlighted in a letter to tictocs Parent Company bio. It is paving the way for the Chinese Government to gain unfettered and unsupervised access to our childrens lives. Earlier this month, tictoc responded by upping that minimum age to 18 years old. I spoke with Marsha Blackburn to find out if that is enough to appease lawmakers. I am pleased that they have changed the age. First step. Mportant having these children streaming these videos, buying these converted toan be cash by the recipients, it is just inappropriate. We want to protect children online. We want to make sure that apps are ageappropriate. That was a step. You mentioned the other concerns that are there for tictoc youre going to continue to work with them. Profilingok at the that is done, the concerns of National Security, the Chinese Government, beijing you cannot tell where their commercial sector and their military sector begin and end. They are all one and the same. China is determined to build a surveillance state that is not intoon their people, certainly we have seen this used on the hong kong presta s. Otesters and on the uighur we know what they would do to us. When you think of the profiles that they are building on these children and how they would use that 10 or 15 years down the road, it is ive tremendous concern to us. Tik tok has that responded and raised that minimum age, do you have more concerns . We have further concerns. I look forward to sitting down with their Leadership Team in the coming days. Taylor do you agree that tik to k should be understood fes under cfius review . If it is something that should be under cfius review, it is the right question to be asking. Taylor senator, having discussions with the leadership is a great way to start. How do you take it to the next level . The things we discussed on the Commerce Committee was having privacy legislation and Data Security legislation here in the u. S. Which went too far on privacy in the eu. You have california looking at doing their own legislation, but it is time for the u. S. To put a basic federal privacy standard on the books. This is something that online consumers want. They want the ability, taylor, to protect their they sure virtual year. They want the ability to secure their identity online. We had a tremendous hearing, great bipartisan participation. One of the things i would like the entire panel of expert witnesses they were all female. One of the reasons for that is because women are so concerned about the privacy issue. That. i did listen to i did see that. I wanted to address that. As we move on to talk about big tech, one of the tweets that you had earlier this week was about google specifically and censoring conservative voices. Yourare your fax to facts to support that . We have done a considerable amount of research in my office. You look at the posts that are centered that go left of center and the post that are censored that go right of center at the posts that are censored that go left of center and the post that are censored that go right of center, and the ones that go right are far more. As we work on this issue, you had a ceo of one of the Tech Companies say their employees are in california. They bring their personal opinions into the workplace. It is their worldview. Tos is something that needs be a neutral platform. If indeed your social media and your Online Connections are going to be end up being the new public square. Taylor that was senator Marsha Blackburn of tennessee. Coming up, uber was one unicorn that got investors excited about its debut this year. Her shot he was brought in to clean up the ceo was brought into cleanup. The bigexplore some of tech stories of 2019 coming up next. How do we prepare to fight more sophisticated Cyber Threats and 2020 . We will discuss the policies also next. This is bloomberg. Taylor lets get back to big 2019 rewind. Facebook and google headed to capitol hill to testify in front of congress in regards to potential regulation. The biggest tech unicorn headed to new york while others have let had less success. The air would not be complete if we did not mention the streaming wars. One of the biggest trends to date is cutting the cord. There is an endless amount of content available to stream and the list is not getting any shorter. Most valuable companies on the s p 500 well introduce their own trimming services. They are investing billions of dollars to compete with amazon, hulu, and netflix in what is known as the streaming wars. Plus costs about half as much as netflix and offers a library of programs irresistible to families. Apple tv plus is cheaper at 499 toh, but only a small other services to watch out for hbo max020 abo and peacock from comcast. The more people who cancel their , the more cable harder it came for those companies to ignore the trend. 63 watch their favorite show online. U. S. Producers are making 100 more shoes shows unusual, the pace does not seem to be slowing down. As for the performance of big Video Streaming Services in 2019, bloomberg technologys kurt wagner got perspective from rich greenfield and greg poor tell, head of Global Consumer industries and retail practice. That is the real fallacy. We like to call it the streaming wars and the industry likes to talk about one of these feeding into the other, but the reality anwe are going to ca see explosion of streaming services. Look at youtube and how much time is being spent. You have Jeffrey Katzenberg introducing could be next year. Everywhere you look, there is more and more content. The reality is the consumer is a spending right now 80 to 100 a month for linear tv packages. You still have 80 million subscribers to multichannel television. The homes that actually have to have a sports and news and the only way they can get that is through a Linear Television package it that is 40 million to 50 million homes. You will have 40 million homes andng out of the billing find new ways to get content, all of these are far easier and cheaper to subscribe to then cable was. You can sign up, cancel, you can have a few of them for a. Of time. This empowers the consumer to create the bundle that they want, as opposed to being forced they nevernnels that wanted. I do feel that this can be somewhat confusing to the general consumer when you think about all of these different players, different price points. Mother them are already advertising, but are not yet available, are these a streaming service a good job of marketing themselves, and how are that how was that actually playing out . One of the challenges that they have is that they are drying a lot of to attention, what they are streaming, when they will stream it is hard to control and that makes it challenging to put out the right message about price point and when content will be available. We are already talking about content and networks that will be available in 2020. That kind of mutes the conversation about what is available today. One of the things you should think about is that the consumer looks to one of these services to focus on. Every streaming Service Needs to create attics. The services that have one or two shows that you are watching, you will not build that habitual, daily behavior where you go on there looking to watch something. You may go onto disney plus because you wanted to watch the not aorian but there is lot to watch if you are an adult. Where do you build that daily behavior going on to find something to be entertained sort of like when you turned on your cable box and a scrolled through trying to find something to watch. That is what netflix tried to create, where there is something for everybody and there is always something neil. They are trying to build that addictive behavior where every there is always something new. They are trying to build that addictive behavior. You mentioned the man delorean and disney plots. Obviously, apple plus you orian and the mandal disney plus. How do you feel that disney plus and apple plus have hit the market at the end of the year . It is hard to deny that disney plus has had already been a big success. It is a Staggering Number of subscribers. Bob iger did an incredible job at rolling this out. Theyre probably heading towards a 20 million subscribers at the end of 2019. That is a Staggering Number. How do you grow from there . There will need to be a lot more programming in order to keep you interested. Right now youre burning through a lot of library. People are going through rewatching as hers of waverly place, hannah montana. When they get to that, they will realize they need how much does disney invest and how much are they were lying on legacy movies and the legacy content . To mitigate . Enough our guess is that you will see disney spend a lot more money and collapse with no windows. E into will not be taylor that was rich greenfield. 2019 was the year of the tech ipo uber. Uber dominated the news. One in particular, investors were waiting for. It was supposed to be the ipo of the year. It was supposed to be the worlds most valuable, with a suppose it market value of as much as 120 billion, but all of that changed during their debut, dropping almost 11 in the first two days of trading, while words like debacle were being thrown around to describe ubers coming out party, the ceo remained publictic, when you go the ceo remained optimistic. Promising that the timeframe would be 2021 and people we will get that here pretty soon. I do not see it as the end of the road. I see it as an important milestone. It was an achievement in terms of making the Company Available to private investors. The stock price has continued to take hits, including reaching a record low. Despite a licensing battle in london and an uber report disclosing 3000 Sexual Assault on the platform in the u. S. Last year, uber remains optimistic. The business itself can be quite profitable, but the next 2, 3, 4 years be broke. This ceo spent the last years reorganizing after watching peloton look lackluster from going since going public, thank god we went public when we did. Performance in 2019, its competition with lift, i got perspective from da davidson and tom wyatt. Disappointing. Y i think what uber and left, part of the problem was that they were slow to detect and react. Have Investor Expectations around demonstrating past profitability would be clear. Investor expectation shifted relatively quickly. Ft were slow to react. Investors punish them for it. It is important to keep in mind, we have seen lots over the years, lots of highgrowth companies that went public when they were not yet making money, the ipos were still relatively successful. In ubers case, the sheer magnitude of the losses was something that investors struggled with. That was a large function and how long these companies were private for before this they decided to go public. Out ofink what you saw the market this year over the course of the year was less of a willingness from Public Market investors to accept large losses and unprofitability. Recordsetting year with tech ipos. Yft led to the class. All of that ipo supply led to technical challenges. T, uber, had lit lyf and others, the trend it to stay private longer. That put demands on them when they became public. That led to a lot of supply. There were technical issues at play as well. Ft and uber were facing headwinds and negative news. A lot of predatory issues, the london problems, and other things that they disclosed over the course of the year. That kept sentiment low. We will see if that can flip over the course of 2020. Aylor that was tom white still ahead, we have seen rampant cyberattacks in the past few years on both institutional and personal scales. What the Threat Landscape will look like in 2020, we will find out coming up next. This is bloomberg. Taylor Cyber Security concerns have been on the rise as data breaches we grimly concern in spaces like Financial Institutions and social media platforms. With 2019 wrapping up and an election looming in 2020, i was joined by gary steele monday and this works work shifting segment to discuss what the cyber landscape will look like next year. Proof point helps Companies Worldwide safeguard their data. I think the reality is that arersecurity concerns rising. People need to improve their posture. I expect that the on cyber related products and services will increase over the coming year. Taylor youre talking about three key trends going forward, the first of which is that they target people, not the structure. How are they becoming more personalized where more and more we get ripped . The reality of infrastructure broadly is become a more secure. Some type of targeted attack, they just a look at your facebook account, they look at your instagram, they try to find out something about you, then craft a lure that will make you engage in some way. Taylor what can we do to stop it . We provide security to help companies block to helpovide Security Companies block these types of attacks. We could all be better about ensuring that we are not being lowered into some kind of cyber threat or attack. If they attack you at work at, they will probably attack you at home as well. Taylor i thought we all knew how to ignore spam emails why are we still getting tracked by spam emails. The way we operate at business today. 94 of all breaches come back to a single person. The way they are being targeted is three email or through some cloud app. Taylor we are quickly approaching those 2020 elections. What are the biggest issues at this moment . There is time where some form of uncertainty about around a major event, you have a lot more participation by cyber actors. They will create lures related to that particular event or that particular point in time. The election is perfect for that. People will click on something, be more susceptible to being lowered into an attack. Taylor how are you assisting political campaigns with that . All people behelp more secure. We are watching what threat actors are doing, watching where the market is heading, and make sure we are one step ahead. Taylor did you see similar in 2016 . O the dnc hack are we better prepared . Attacks are probably more sophisticated today, but we are better prepared. We will see more participation more participants in the threat actors. Taylor what do we do to prevent i am not thinking hacking on the voting machines, but bigger a utility, a power grid. Is there anything to do to prevent to those . Theyre those . Broader awareness. The thing that is most vulnerable today is people because that is ultimately the root of any breach that happens. Organizations that are thinking hard about how to better defend their people because they are key to getting behind those doors. The 20 how do we keep election safe . Be vigilant. As itllion have been lost relates to even simple category business email compromise. The motivation and the insensitive incentive is there. We need to be more vigilant. Taylor that was proof point ceo gary steele. That does it for this edition of best of bloomberg technology. Tuning every day at 5 00 p. M. New york. We are livestreaming on twitter. Check us out technology. Check us out at quick take on twitter. This is bloomberg. Week businessweek turns 90. Look at how the magazine has covered business through the decade. Financial firms arguably still do not get it. A Popular Uprising that has set millions