Billions of items shipped, tens of millions of amazon devices sold, so the echo. , for example the echo dot, for example. And busters Holiday Season for amazon. Chad morganlander, Washington Crossing advisors portfolio manager, joins us. How would you characterize 2019 for u. S. Equities . Chad for u. S. Equities, we think it was just a gangbusters year. The reason behind it, though, was not vibrant economic or Global Growth, but rather it was Interest Rates across the curve across the globe that went down, and accommodation from monetary the u. S. And the ecb. Yes, someone like 90 Interest Rate moves. Does that mean we are looking at not as many next year . Chad there has to be a transition period. Capital spending starts to kick higher in the United States and across the globe. Without that, we dont anticipate the expectations for for 2020arnings of 10 and Revenue Growth of 5 to 6 to come to fruition. We think that will have to be. Brought down. Overall, in the short run, we think markets could continue to make higher highs due in part to this accommodation by Monetary Policy, and also the kick the can of uncertainty on trade down the road for the next two to three months. Vonnie are you at Washington Crossing a little more secure in the direction of the major Central Banks from here . A you anticipate there is clear direction, whether it will be easing or tightening . Chad overall, we believe that the Federal Reserve wont be raising rates anytime soon, obviously. The anticipation, though, is that the fed will come a later next year, reduce rates. We think that also varies. Theres got to be a transition transition period. We dont think trade is entirely resolved. Thised will be surfing news flow in 2020, and that may indicator that they will be watching. Vonnie the interesting thing is that with all of the headlines we got on trade, particularly intellectual property, huawei and so on, the sox index is up more than 60 your to date. Will that continue . It seems like even though daytoday stocks were watching these headlines, maybe they werent overall as if it did as we thought they might be. Chad valuations do matter at one point. You have an earnings yield for withyear of roughly 5. 7 , a 10 year at 1. 9 . Anticipating, even within these segments like semiconductors, that they are going to have muted turns in yes, 5 to 7 overall, market multiples can continue to expand a bit. But valuations, we believe, are somewhat stretched. Vonnie where are you placing your money these days . Chad great question. We have a 2x weighting right now in industrials. We would look at Companies Like General Dynamics and illinois tool works. We also are overweight health care companies. Are companies that we rise in our rising that we own in our rising dividend portfolios. Consumer staple companies, we would also be dipping our toes there. Vonnie what makes you so bullish on the industrials . Chad our base case is that global gdp growth will be roughly around 3 . We are not looking for this gap pmis, but overall, we think the evaluations, if you have a viewpoint of three to five years out, valuations are attractive, and many of these companies are consistently growing, consistently profitable , and critical to this whole idea of buying industrials, you want to buy the industrials that dont have a lot of debt on their Balance Sheet. Vonnie right. And the health care stocks, would you be looking to get into that shortterm and maybe get out again if the election goes a certain way . Chad funny, our viewpoint is that we are looking 24 to 36 months out at holding these companies overall. Our viewpoint is that yes, you could have a mild amount of underperformance over the course of the next six to nine months, but overall, we think youre going to get handsomely rewarded if your viewpoint is a little bit farther out. This seems to happen often within health care, when you go into an election. They underperform, and then they outperform in a drastic manner. Look no further than the bill clinton years for evidence of that. Vonnie you do still have u. S. Recession odds at 30 . It seems like in recent weeks, prettyon odds went from substantial to almost nothing. What is the 30 accounting for . What are you looking at . Chad the average is always around 15 going into any given year. The reason for a modest elevated recession odds is due in part because of our dashboard of Economic Indicators that we look at although they are not blinking red lights, you can see that Global Growth has moderated. For 2019 early on was 3. 8 , and now we are a touch 3 . That could continue if emerging markets growth does not start to actually get a big boost. We are not anticipating a massive Fiscal Stimulus Program out of em countries, i. E. China, and 2020, hence why there is a moderately higher pub ability ever session. Vonnie are you looking to provide a hedge or some sort of opportunity . Chad we do have an overweight weighting in gold at this point. We took off some exposure to highyield based off of valuations and spread. We think that investors are not getting properly rewarded regarding the highyield market at this point. Thats where we have more of our hedge debt. We are in 2020 looking at the emerging markets. We do have a drastic underweight there, and we may move that bit higher, but overall, we are looking for more of a fiscal response out of china and more accommodation. Vonnie vonnie chad, thank you. We will speak about that more than a time. Chad morganlander of Washington Crossing advisors joining us from new jersey today. Lets get more on Global Markets today. Heres abigail doolittle. Abigail it may be a holiday shortened week, and like volumes, but we have more record highs, at least for the s p 500 and the nasdaq. Take a look at major averages in the u. S. Up nasdaq pretty solid, 0. 5 . A record high for that index and the s p 500 as investors try to tiptoe into the end of the year. The s p 500 headed to its best year since 2013, confirming the fact that stocks are higher and making this a risk on session. We have haven bonds lower. However, superlight volumes. As we go into the bloomberg terminal and use this function, we are well below what is typically the case over the last 20 days. 52 below the average volume for the last 20 days. The last couple of days has been like volume, too. Lots of investors and traders on holiday at this point. The vix does confirm that risk , at there on the year lows for the year. The question is whether 2020 will see a spike higher. Sometimes when you have a bottom like this out of complacency, you can see a big jump higher. No doubt right now, near yeartodate lows for that boat for that fear index. Here are some huge outside movers. Its worst day since 2002 on the news that their lung cancer study missed the goal. We also have shares of keygen plunging of qiagen plunging, not as much as spectrum, after the company reviewed various strategy alternatives and decided to go it alone and focus on their core business. I think some traders and investors were looking for m a action. The bulls really helping out those major averages, amazon up 2. 2 after they reported a record Holiday Season. Vonnie yes, 5 million new prime members. Do remember the function gtv on the bloomberg allows you to browse all of the recent charts featured on bloomberg tv. Catch up on key analysis and save your favorites for future reference. This is bloomberg. Vonnie live from new york, im vonnie quinn. Bloomberg marketsbloomberg iskets this is. This bloomberg markets. Lets check in on the bloomberg first word news. Heres mark crumpton. Senatoraska public and alaska republican senator Lisa Murkowski says she is disturbed by majority leader theh mcconnells stance on upcoming impeachment trial, a rare dissent in a party that has an largely unified behind the president. In hong kong, more rallies are being held today in shopping malls. Protesters are hoping to attract attention to their cause by forcing malls and stores to close. On Christmas Day, police fired tear gas and dispersed demonstrations inside a mall. Two dozen people were hurt on christmas eve. This comes at a bad time for hong kong retailers, who have seen their sales plunge over the past six months. The turkish government will ask its parliament next month to authorize the deployment of troops to libya. President erdogan said today that the african country has asked for military help. The troops would be sent to train fighters loyal to libyas Prime Minister. President erdogan has said they would be meant as a deterrent and not as an active fighting force. It will soon be harder for california businesses to treat workers as independent contractors. Beginning next week, a new law will restrict the use of freelance labor. The legislation is aimed at addressing inequities created by the growth of the gig economy and improving employment practices, but critics worry the legislation could hurt smaller firms that use contractors due to budget and staffing restraints. Global news 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. Im mark crumpton. This is bloomberg. Vonnie thank you. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is defending his leadership of the likud party today after twice failing to form a government this year. The challenger to his 20 year run as party leader is former cabinet minister idiom cabinet minister gideon saar. Hes won a number of key endorsements from politicians, police, and other leaders in society there, but does he stand a real chance in the actual race . His supporters have been saying that they think he has a chance. Analysts think he only has a slim chance, given that in general, likud is always loyal to its leader, and in general, netanyahu has a very strong following. He has created a narrative around which he is besieged, and people are waging a witchhunt against him. Ofhas quite a good chance his loyalists, of which there are many, coming out to vote. It is a very nasty weather day out there, and at last count, only 20 of the 100,000 people who can vote in the primaries had come out. Each side is very worried that this low turnout might work against them. They are calling on people to come out. Vonnie almost another five hours to vote. Polls close at 11 00 p. M. Local time. What kind of differences do they have in terms of policies . On the palestinian state, they have the same position. What differentiates them . Gwen at the moment, it is primarily that the Prime Minister has a federal indictment over his head, and he has failed the last two times to form a government, with the rival blueandwhite party saying they will not form a unity government as long as Bibi Netanyahu is at its head. Saar is the head of the likud, we might end up with a unity government. Vonnie if he wins, there may be a better chance of a government being formed march 2 onwards. If netanyahu wins, what happens then . Wins, peoplenyahu are really concerned that it is going to be the same thing we have seen in the past few elections, that it is going to be a stalemate again. This is one of the main problems, that blueandwhite, like i said, will not form a government with netanyahu. Saar is counting on, he is calling on likud to vote for him so that there is a government in which likud takes part in. However, loyalists believe in their leader, and believe that no matter what, he will come through. It is really quite interesting, and it could be a very sad ending, and a very interesting ending. Vonnie Market Reaction wise, we are not seeing huge reaction. Obviously the shekel is tied to the u. S. Dollar anyway. Gwen the shekel is always very strong. The israeli economy is usually quite resilient to political chaos, to security problems. Has almost been expected. We might see some Market Reaction should we have a change , such as gideon saar taking over the likud, but that would be on sunday because markets are closed on saturday. Vonnie thank you to bloombergs middle east Senior Writer Quinn Ackerman coming to us from jerusalem. Still ahead, our Federal Reserve rate cuts stoking trouble . Our exclusive conversation, next. This is bloomberg. Vonnie live from new york, im vonnie quinn. This is bloomberg markets. Boston fed president Eric Rosengren is concerned that the central bank has been overly accommodating with its rate cuts. He spoke to bloomberg. We are pretty close to our inflation target. Core pce is up. The Unemployment Rate is still quite low. Gdp is growing roughly at what we would expect, which is around potential. In terms of economic data, the outcome has been quite good. Chair powell said last week the economy is in a good please. In a good place. Would you agree with that characterization . Eric i would. We didnt expect consumption to be quite so strong. With the imposition of tariffs, the global slowdown resulted in exports and Business Investment being weaker than we would have forecast. Consumption picked up and has been quite strong, and we expect it could to continue. Michael would it have been that way without the rate cuts . You dissented on all three of them. Eric one of the challenges i think is thinking about what the side effects are of very low Interest Rates. There are two side effects that i am particularly continuing to worry about. One is how much room we have if we do get an actual slowdown as opposed to a concern about a slowdown. In that case, we dont have that much room before shortterm Interest Rates hit zero. The second concern is that right now, the stock market has been doing quite well. Other Financial Markets in some areas have been quite nebulous. Is this the stage of the cycle that you want to have a little more push to Financial Markets . I would argue i am not so certain that is necessary. Michael you made a major point of both of those in a speech last week in oslo. Let me ask you about the first. You are basically saying the fed is almost out of ammunition. Eric i am saying we dont have as much room as before. Prior to the last three easings, the fed funds rate was pretty close to what i would expect to be as neutral. Since then, when we reduced by 75 basis points, given the level that we were at, that was a substantial amount of easing. So both Monetary Policy and fiscal policy are accommodative right now, so i am not so sure we need quite so much accommodation at this time. I am a little bit worried that we have less room than we otherwise would have if we were to have a big negative shock, and i would say does not just the short end of the markets in the long end of the market. It has been fluctuating between 1. 5 and 2 . That is a lot lower than what we were experiencing prior to the last recession, which will have some limited effect given that that could quite easily get back to zero. Michael so what do we do . Eric i think we will need fiscal policy at that stage, and in a very low Interest Rate environment, fiscal policy becomes a much more important tool. In the talk that i just gave, it also highlighted that we should be thinking about buffers, including buffers for capital ratios for banks, and in general fiscal policy, you would like to have a bit more of a buffer in state and local government. You would want to have enough that they can weather the storm and not have to cut back if we have a recession. Michael if you take a look at washington, theres no guarantee you are going to get any fiscal policy. What happens then . Eric we would have a longer recession then we would prefer. Vonnie vonnie that was boston fed president Eric Rosengren speaking to bloombergs michael mckee. Checking markets now, we are continuing the rally we have been seeing all year. 3235 p 500 up 11 points at. Volume is lower, but there are still people trading out there. The nasdaq just hit 9000, up 0. 5 . In the s p, the best performer is amazon, up 2. 4 after reporting a record holiday sales period. Oil companies also doing well. The 61. 65 mark. This is bloomberg. Vonnie live from new york, i am vonnie quinn. This is bloomberg markets. The story is getting worse for boeing. Messages between employees are picking a disturbing picture of concern. Those are the words used by House Committee aid. The disclosure came on the same day boeing ousted its chief executive officer. Lets bring in brendan case from dallas. What is in these messages . Will the public ever see them . Brendan we do not know what is in them. The public has not seen them yet. The public will certainly. There is an early batch of messages in october that was publicly disclosed. This latest collection has been described as disturbing by a congressional aide. Still do not know the details about that. I would suspect we will sooner or later. Obviously we are trying to learn as much as we can about them. Boeing hadappears turned them over to the department of justice but were keeping them out of the faas hands. Why would that be . That was the cases for the earlier messages in october. Boeing had disclosed those messages to the Justice Department months before. Maybe because there is a criminal investigation into the 737 max situation and that may have had an influence on boeings decisionmaking. Dennis muilenburg is gone. How culpable was he in dragging out the investigation or not knowing what was gone, for misleading shareholders and the public . Surean time will tell for on that question. For a lot ofocus investors has been that Dennis Muilenburg promised over and end to the max grounding was just around the corner. At the same time, he seems to have presided over significant deterioration in boeings relationship with the faa. From the perspective of getting the plane back in the air and getting production started back under Dennis Muilenburg seem to be becoming more distant. It will be the challenge for david calhoun, his successor, to make that happen. Vonnie what should calhoun do . There has been so much trust lost in boeing. Shares are not suffering that much but it would seem like calhoun needs to do something drastic. Brendan as you say, a huge loss of trust in boeing, most of all by the flying public. I think for calhoun, the first job will be to reset the relationship with the faa. That will be crucial for his efforts to end the grounding and get the plane back in the air. Once it is flying again, boeing and airlines will have a very significant challenge in terms people in the general public feel comfortable flying the plane. That cannot happen until the plane is allowed to fly again. For that, boeing needs faa approval. Vonnie does this make it more likely we will see a further delay brendan . Brendan it is quite a further delay . Brendan it is quite possible. The signals boeing sent earlier this month when they decided to pause production of the 737 max imply that approval for the plane to get started again is not around the corner. That said, european regulators who have played a key role in the situation have suggested it is possible the plane could be approved to fly again as early as february. Vonnie calhoun has obviously had a past and he has been through difficult times before. What can you tell us about how he might handle this . Brendan he has been involved a number of corporate turnarounds, most prominently at caterpillar. One of the challenges he has as ceo of boeing is he is no outsider to the companys handling of this crisis. He was the lead director at the time of both crashes. He took over as chairman in october. He has been very closely involved with the companys overall crisis response. He is not coming in with a fresh slate. What he will need to do initially is try to regain the trust of the faa, and then eventually begin rebuilding boeings battered reputation with the public. Vonnie thank you for all of your reporting and for joining us today. That is bloombergs brendan case in dallas. Time for more of our best of 2019. Bank of santander faces the future. Speaking with bloombergs Erik Schatzker in an interview that bank isvember 21, the ready to grow in the United States and generate more earnings and latin america. Yearsspent the last five axing the legacy issues. , i reason i was in dallas joined the u. S. Port only one month ago, is because we are now ready to grow. The u. S. Is big. It is a big market. Thatmarket that had has huge relationships with latin america and europe. There is no other bank that can serve as indepth. You are a customer in michigan, this is a real story. Their attack and manufacturing company, they want to business in mexico, they want to finance it on a local basis, santander was the bank. They now want to go to brazil. I can give you dozens of examples with europe. That is the second thing. By the way, we are actually announcing next week an interesting remittance. At the other end of the spectrum, there are millions of mexicans spending 36 billion every year. From the u. S. To mexico we are launching a competitive remittances program, from the santander branches to any bank in mexico. There are a lot of things we can add and bring value to the u. S. Consumer. Eric you can ultimately invest in the brand and expand the business, or you can reevaluate and sell. You want to grow. Why . The reason i ask why is one can make a strong argument for selling, at least the u. S. Bank. You have a Consumer Finance business that generates a handsome return on equity. The bank itself is not that profitable. You could sell it for billions of dollars if you could reallocate that cash flow to brazil. Or you could take some of that capital and bolster your capital ratios and make the regulators happy. Ana i need to make my investors happy today and in the future. That is my job. When i get asked the most difficult thing about my job, it is balancing dividends today. Billionpaid 16 16. 5 to our shareholders, but also investing for the future and the u. S. Is a key part of that. At the u. S. As a consumer lender and a bank. It is an integrated business even though we do not at it that way. We are improving the bank. We have close the net interest margin. Just appointed a new ceo to the bank. We are launching the service i just mentioned that attract new customers, and we have committed to getting to 12 return on tangible equity over the next couple of years, which is above our cost of equity. We have the means to do that. It is an important part of the santander footprint. Eric what about raising brand awareness. Hsbc, the jetways, around the world. What about Something Like that . Ana that is why i am here today. Until now, if i came here, we would spend the whole conversation saying when will the next bank, . When will you get bank out of when we get out of the 4 00 a. M. When we get out of the four m . Our business in dallas is doing great. Theres a lot of growth and it will be profitable. Eric does growing in the u. S. Eventually mean buying in the u. S. . Ana not necessarily. We can grow organically. We have not have been signaled to launch a new product for five years. That tells you how much potential there is. Blockchainching a based retail crossborder companywith the u. S. That is coming to the u. S. We will do open banks. We have created the north america region, mexico and the u. S. We are now running a lot of these businesses together. You will see good results in the coming years. Banco santander chairman ana botin in an interview that aired november 21. In the meantime, the new york Federal Reserve is upgrading cash into the Financial System at the end of the year is under subscribed. An indication dealer Balance Sheets art nearing capacity. Lets bring in a bloombergs alex harris. Is this the forced time is today the first time . Alex this is the third time we have seen under subscription from the dealers. It has been hard to tell. People are not sure if everyone has the funding they need. Pasthen you are seeing term operations get rolled over and the takeup is less than what those were, i think we are at capacity. Dealers are just trying to be smart about how much Balance Sheet they have heading into the next week, when december 31 is the crucial day to make sure the rest of the market has the financing they need to get through the end of the year. Vonnie let show the chart because the fed has injected more than 200 billion dollars in temporary financing into the economy. We are off a little bit but still up close to 240 at this point. It is about alex it is about 238 billion at this point. That is a lot of money. The talk was initially they were going to inject half 1 trillion. They did not need to do that much. Someone had asked why didnt they just make these unlimited . It is about credibility for them. They would rather be over prepared then under and that everyone is running around looking for financing and they cannot be there to provide more because they miss estimated how much the market needed. For them it is about credibility, making sure they are there and people remember the new york fed is stepping in at this crucial time. Operatione very first sparked more than curiosity. Panicwas almost a hint of but not among martin participants Market Participants. Did Market Participants understand what the fed was trying to do . Understand they are supposed to be a temporary valve. The question is what happens when the starts to run off . Theyre trying to build a permanent level of reserve and are not quite at the levels they are comfortable with. Now everyone is wondering if these are going to be going out through january, what happens when all the temporary liquidity leaves the system. As the market going to be ok . Is it going to stand on its own or will we see volatile moments . We have seen the structure of the market has changed so much there are days when treasury auctions settled he would get a bit of volatility in those funding spaces. Whatwhat claire vonnie clarification has jay powell given the markets . Alex this is the whatever it takes moment. The weight mario draghi said in 2012 we will do whatever it takes to preserve the euro, Jerome Powell is doing whatever it takes to provide stability to the front end. If there target rate moves outside the band they have set for themselves, then people will wonder what is the fed doing and do they have control over Monetary Policy on the whole and do they know what they are doing. This is what Jerome Powells focuses. Vonnie great story. Alex harris, thank you as always for all of your fixed income related stories. Lets check in on bloomberg first word news with mark crumpton. Mark President Trump says turkey is trying to curb the violence in northwest syria but its efforts are being undermined. On twitter, mr. Trump accused russia, iran, and the Syrian Government of killing thousands of civilians. He says turkey is working hard to stop the carnage. Backed and the russian breakaway regions are planning to conduct a prisoner swap on december 29. A russian newspaper says president Vladimir Putin and ukrainian president zelensky agreed on a new exchange of prisoners at peace talks held in paris earlier this month. It remains unclear how much these people will be included in the swap. Japanese officials are urging Business Leaders to pay their employees more. Shinzo abe and the bank of japan governor spoke at an annual business gathering in tokyo today. They told companies boosting wages would help strengthen the countrys economy. Japans week wage growth has been a hurdle to long price gains. Trade Officials Say wages rose an average of 2. 1 this year. Paris, the fire damage to Notre Dame Cathedral may not be able to be saved. The wreck of the church is still so fragile there is a 50 chance it may be beyond repair. Scaffolding installed before the april fire is threatening the vault of the 12thcentury gothic monument. Notre dame could not hold Christmas Services this year for the First Time Since the french revolution. Global news 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. I am mark crumpton. This is bloomberg. Vonnie . Vonnie coming up, our stock of the hour is amazon. The online retailer seeing a bump in holiday sales. The numbers, next. This is bloomberg. Vonnie time for the bloomberg quicktake. Britains divorce from the eu is now moving ahead. Boris is promising to pull the economy out of the block january 31. That finishing line is a starting line. Victorys big election means there are no apparent roadblocks. It will allow for an 11 month transition period. The u. K. Will chill will still trade freely with the eu and be subject to most of its laws. A deal protecting eu citizens and the u. K. And u. K. Citizens in the eu will come forth. Rules on the island border will not take effect until the end of the transition period. With a moredeal complicated relationship between the ek and the eu. The two sides will have signed a trade relationship ideally next year, but that amazon said its holiday sales will set a record and the company chairs have responded. Taylor riggs joins us. Plenty of metrics for amazon to be pleased about. Taylor basically crushing all the metrics you mentioned. Shares up 3 , leading the gains in the s p 500. This is after they came out and said theyre having another record Holiday Season. Let me run you through those numbers. Billions of items are shipped. They say tens of millions of amazon devices like the echo dot were sold. They have 5 million new customers that are starting the prime free trial or have paid memberships locally, and the number of items delivered with one day or same day delivery quadrupled from the last Holiday Season. There were a lot of concerns all year about how expensive it was to invest in that one day and same date and two day holiday shipping. That appears to be paying off. I want to take a look at the chart i am showing inside my terminal at gtv. There were some concerns about how amazon was not making a lot of gains. Stuck in a trading range between the 200 Day Moving Average in yellow, the 50 Day Moving Average and blue. Sharest looks like the rising back above the 200 Day Moving Average. Todays news providing a little bit of support. What is the consensus for some of the other retailers of the Holiday Season . Good holidays a season but you would not be surprised that people have begun to shift from online to instore. Retail sales were up 3. 2 . The shift to online continues. Versusshopping up 19 instore sales, only rising 1. 2 . Nordstromaw generally , jcpenney, urban outfitters, as the trend of a good Holiday Shopping continues. Taylor taylor riggs in San Francisco with our stock of the hour. Thank you. Times their latest Bloomberg Business flash. A look at some of the biggest business stories. Russia may finish the nord stream 2 pipeline in the foreseeable future. The kremlin says it has what it needs. The nord stream 2 is a system of offshore gas lines from russia to germany. The russian Prime Minister said the u. S. Sanctions will not prevent the completion of the project. It istoring group says concerned about the rise of maritime cries maritime crime. The eu group is urging Law Enforcement to step up security and increased patrols. The latest incident happened on Christmas Day where Officials Say six unauthorized people were found in the engine room on a tanker. 30 incidents, including piracy and Armed Robbery have been reported in the straits. It is our global battle of the charts. This is bloomberg. Here, it all starts with a simple. Hello hi how can i help . A data plan for everyone. Everyone . Everyone. Lets send to everyone wifi up there . Uhh. Sure, why not . Howd he get out . a camera might figure it out. That was easy glad i could help. At xfinity, were here to make life simple. Easy. Awesome. So come ask, shop, discover at your local xfinity store today. Vonnie it is time for our global battle of the charts. They are always excellent, and no matter who the winner you can see them on the bloomberg by running gtv. Kicking things off today is john hyland. John i am looking at a warning sign for treasury bulls, the coppergold ratio. The white line is the u. S. Tenure ratio. The blue line is the coppergold ratio. It has been on the rise. The ceo a double line capital has been watching it as a nearterm indicator on the direction of the 10 year yield. In september, you can see the 10 year yield bottoming out at 1500 an ounce. Copper has risen to a high and relative to gold is at its high since july. He sees the gold moving the 10 year higher. Wall street sees it hitting 1. 2 . Michael kelly sees it hitting 2. 5 in the first few months of 2020. A divergence and calls for the 10 year yield, but an interesting indicator to keep an eye on. You can find it by running gtv. Vonnie thank you. Great chart. That is john hyland. Ist up is pretty good to kriti gupta to defend her crown. Iti the white line is domestic oil pricing from shale, the blue line is the west texas prize. The first half of the decade is very different from the second half. Since the commodity crisis in early 2016, when we saw crude prices drop to 30 a barrel. That was concerning but a bit of a bruised a boost for 2018 where we saw prices and supply go up in tandem. Real divergence is when the trade tensions hit. Oil trading in a range. Record production is still very much the story. Oil companies in texas and north dakota are Still Producing just to keep their Balance Sheets flat on the year. It is interesting to see how it will work in 2020. Vonnie excellent chart. Outaw spike when it came and said it was going to have a help with its debt. I think that is an excellent chart. Thinkr, 10 year yield, i john hyland has to be the winner. Congratulations to john hyland. Coming up, balance of power with david westin on Bloomberg Television and radio. Isaac boltansky from compass point. Once again, this is bloomberg. David from bloomberg World Headquarters in new york to our tv and radio audiences worldwide, i am david westin. Welcome to balance of power, where the world of politics meets the world of business. On brief today, Kevin Cirilli from the white house on questions from republicans over majority leader mcdonalds approach to impeachment. Cash ever Mitch Mcconnells approach to impeachment. From israel, the challenge over Benjamin Netanyahu. And concerns over dollar liquidity as we had to the new year. Lets start with kevin at the white house. We have alaska republican senator Lisa Murkowski saying this about impeachment on a local television station. We have to take that step back from being hand and glove with the defense. What leader mcconnell had said. That hasto think further confused the
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