Pressure on e. U. Alliances but europes top officials remained resolute. We will be the exporter of knowledge, technologies. Every company should contribute where they do extra in business. Europeans a particular have to go a little further. From i ranran to saudi arabio south africa leaders spoke to bloomberg about their challenges. Weve already committed to reducing expenditure on a number of fronts. We want to avoid a dangerous escalation. We are flipping the page. All straight ahead on this special edition of bloomberg best. Hello and welcome. On this special edition of bloomberg best, well look back at 2019 and europe, in the middle east, and africa revisiting the most interesting interviews with new makers, policy makers and leading figures and business, finance, and politics. Lets begin with brexit. When 2019 began theresa may was facing a march deadline to achieve a deal. By years end, a new British Government was still promising to get brexit done. It was a year of negotiation, agitation, and constant speculation as britain and the e. U. Tried to come to terms on a momentous divorce. I think a no deal brexit would be a bad idea. We know what is going to happen. There needs to be some kind of extension. The longer the better. So both parties can think about what they are trying to accomplish and what the downsides are. If it does happen, does it frees markets . I could have adverse consequences we do not expect today. Were going to go to a 24 7 war room status to make sure we are prepared not just ourselves clients,al banks, this will have unmitigated consequences we should prepare for. I think under a soft brexit or a hard Brexit LondonFinancial Center stats will diminish status will diminish over time. Technology, risk, credit, regulators will it actually changes the forecast we expect for the Financial Center in london. It will be not quite what it is today. Questions did you have to feel from g20 central bankers and finance ministers on brexit . Do they believe that an extension means that brexit gets water down . I think most people think, and i agree with them, that the process we have gone through over the last few months has made the likelihood of ultimately a no deal brexit much smaller. And i think we have seen that markets have been pricing on the assumption that a no deal brexit has become a very small risk now. Hats positive because i always believe we need to leave the European Union with thatdeal and with a plan allows us to protect our economy and protect british jobs. Have think the way things evolved is positive. We have now good to do got to get this over the line. The downside is we have created of uncertainty. The only way that we can get our economy powering forward is to put this uncertainty behind us and get the deal done and i am confident we will unleash a wall of investment into the u. K. At the moment the Prime Minister has proposed a deal unlike theresa mays deals, this one appears likely to pass the parliament. If the e. U. Agrees to it. Now in economic and financial terms it would make a lot of sense in my mind to the e. U. To agree to Boris Johnsons proposal. The question is whether the politics will deliver that. That is what we have to wait and see. The language that he used around no deal brexit, it is very harsh. It talks about no deal brexit being almost a calamity. That is not your assessment. Its important for International Investors to realize that brexit is a great opportunity for the. Uk. A great opportunity to reboot the economy. We should leave with the deal and i think that is the most likely scenario. Deal,e to not have a rather to have this linger on, i know deal or clean break becomes likely. Now, i pointed out that a no deal is difficult for those firms and integrated supply chains like the auto and pharmaceutical sectors. But within no deal, it is very opaque at the moment. It is all about how much preparation has been made, how the e. U. Will react and if we were to have a no deal, then there would be a significant stimulative policy response of the u. K. Positive to the supply and demand side. The most likeis we scenario but a no deal, there has been a lot of misplaced fears. The good news is that ther eis an agreement between a. U. K. And the European Union. As a consequence, would be there would be a transition, an orderly transition to a new economic relationship and we have been saying, the bank of england has been saying from date one after the decision of the people of the United Kingdom to move to a new economic relationship with the e. U. It was important to have a transition to that relationship, and that is what this deal would deliver if adopted. What does that mean for rates . Its hard to distill it down to one thing. The nature of adoption, the timeframe in which it happens. There are lots of potential paths. But transitions better than theing better than alternative and the alternative is a no deal brexit at the end of this month. In egeneral, what we have seen n this. K. Is that entrenched uncertainty about trade relationships, and this is the tightest trade relationship thisen the u. K and e. U. Uncertainty is having a consequence for Business Investment. We think Business Investment the level is 25 below where it otherwise would have been postreferendum. Now, if adopted it will remove much of that uncertainty. We would expect a rebound. It will not all come back. Because we do not know the exact nature of the future relationship. The future relationship is to be negotiated but we do know that the prospect of an orderly transition is put in place. We know the contours. In that environment you expect, all things being equal, the economy to pick up from a subdued phase. To make Monetary Policy more going to die and move to europe. Thats not going to happen. The citi has felt unloved in the last year or two. What the message will be to the government now is you really have to give some priority in the future negotiations to the relationship between the city and the European Union 27. Because at the moment, very little weight has been given to that. More air time has been given to the fish than the whole of the city of london. Nothing against fishermen. The next negotiation must include a serious attempt to negotiate some proper mutually regulatory agreements between the city and the rest of europe to allow people carry on trading. Still ahead on the year in conversation in europe, the newly elected president of the European Commission and tends to grapple with the climate crisis. Its existential. Theres a huge opportunity. Mario draghi cap stimulus open in 2019 but there was debate on q. E. It was a push back. But it was a constructive one. This is bloomberg. This is bloomberg best. We will revisit the years top interviews on Bloomberg Television in europe. In 2019, mario draghi ended his tenure as president of the central bank. He was unable to lift inflation to target and raise rates from record lows. A third of the Ecbs Governing Council opposed the decision to restart quantitative easing. Skeptical official spoke at was of lee with bloomberg. Spoke exclusively with bloomberg. It was an intensive and constructive discussion at the council. I could find out and everybody listened to the other s. A discussion in which other tries to take the others in which someone tries to take the other seriously. It was a push back and it was a constructive one. Up withe tries to come a common solution that everybody agrees with. Not everybody agreed with the measures that were announced yesterday. Essentially, it was about the question how effective will a further monetary easing in these various areas be . Is it something we have started to reach the end of, or is there still effectiveness in it . This was a major reason why a pushback took place. Question of quantitative easing moving further into negative territorys, will it have an effect on the economic outcomes or are the risks already higher than the benefit . Or at the level of decreasing further the deposit rate, or what will be the effect on the market Interest Rate compared to doing nothing . Would you say some of the members of the council left thinking, we should not have done this . Im sure this idea crossed the minds of some people. It definitely crossed my mind. I myself are a product of democratic culture. And football teams. I value team play. In communication. If you are divided, you tend to lose games. If you are united, you tend to score and you tend to win games. There is so much pushback against negative rates. Do we need an urgent policy review . I think its an important issue to discuss. That is something that Christine Lagarde, the next president of the ecb, will decide. Theyas indicated that started a review of our Monetary Policy. I find it important to analyze long term trends. Or lower rate of interest the population aging, how do they affect the conditions or the operating environment of the Monetary Policy. And what kind of conclusions should we draw. Not to our mandate because our mandate is enshrined in the e. U. Treaty but our price stability, target. Discuss g to important and it will also enhance our understanding of our Monetary Policy. And improve more conscious communication by the governing council. Later, well hear from draghis successor Christine Lagarde. First, lets hear from leaders in finance around the world who dealt with the impact of negative rates on markets. Starting with the ubs ceo. I am not very convinced that that has been prescribed in the past of just quantitative easing is the solution for the problems in eruope. We in europe. We need to go through a more indepth analysis of the steps necessary to create sustainable growth. So, we need to have reforms of various level, political, Economic Reforms in europe and the Central Bank Policy can only help in a transition. It is not a solution of the problem. I will be very, very careful furthersically growing the Balance Sheet of central banks, particularly when they start to go into asset risk also. We are at the risk of creating an asset bubble. Its unclear what exactly the additional benefit of this lower Interest Rate is. Nevertheless, if it happens you need to deal with it. It will put additional pressure on the sector in general. We will need to see how the answers can look like. The idea is they have no other choice because of the geopolitical issue and the global trade war, they have to do that to grow the economy. That helps your customers continue in business and do more business. Does that make sense to you . That is the core benefit of the last years is. The question is, does an additional point two or point one create an additional affect or are the Collateral Damage is not just about pension plans, do they really outweight the positives . Are ur negative rates, negative rates helping the economy in general, helping to boost inflation and bring growth back . I think when we look back on negative rates, i think when the book is written it is not going to look like a great experiment. I do not think that negative rates will bring us the benefit we would like to see. There is no question that growth has been lagging and negative rates have not allowed in acceleration of that growth. I dont think negative rates are really constructive. Well have to wait and see how this all plays out but i worry that when we look back on this experiment of negative rates we will not like what we see when it is all over and all unwound. Negative rates are something which help the economy. Many people criticize the ecb saying negative rates are bad because they negatively impact the top line of a bank. At the same time, negative rates help the european economy to stay at a modest rate of growth. So, the of banks were going down. Banks have been decent performers. Maybe now if they are low or negative for longer it would have a slightly negative impact on banks. It does. Its a marginal help to a certain extent. Im sure the cb. The ecb. And can increase the for instance. Would the ecb go into deeper negative territory . Its effectively tiers for the banks. They could. Ther eie is some room left. In theory, im sure they would prefer not to do that for many reasons. The efficacy of further negative Interest Rate is question about. Certainly is questionable. The side effects we know are significant. And i suspect it will not be required in the baseline scenario. I think the preference for the ecb would be not to have to do that. Well see what the macro environment provides. The outlook is not terrible. The market is probably too pessimistic, critically on price pressures even on inflation, including in europe at the moment. Come, as we to revisit the top interviews from bloombergs coverage of europe, the middle east and africa and 2019. Saudi arabias oil minister spoke about the kingdoms surprising decision to make deeper cuts in oil production. I wouldnt take any corrective measures without consulting and straight ahead, irans foreign minister lashed back against pressure from the u. S. We see the presence of the United States as conducive to greater instability. This is bloomberg. Nejra this is a special edition of bloomberg best. Conversationsting on business, finance, and politics in europe, the middle east, and africa. As irans economy struggled under the weight of u. S. Sanctions, tensions ratchet it up in the persian gulf. There were several incidents involving the movement of oil tankers. Iran said it could disrupt access to the strait of hormuz. The foreign minister shared irans perspective in a conversation with bloomberg editor in chief john mickelthwait. We understand, we feel the danger, and that is what we want to avoid a dangerous escalation. But we cannot give up defending our country. John your revolutionary guard has said it can what would be the situation what it would do that . We certainly have the ability to do it but we so we do not want to do it because strait of hormuz and the persian gulf are a life line. We play a major role in securing it. But it has to b e secure for everybody. Of people would say that the big issue in that region is not so much america and iran. Its saudi arabia and iran. Saudil, unfortunately, arabia believes they can purchase their security and they pay as a commodity and they buy. Fight all ofing to their problems until the last american soldier. The saudis have hired americans as mercenaries. That is how they see it. Do you see america as the saudi s mercenary force . That is how they see it. We see the president s of the United States the presence of the United States as conducive to greater instability. It exacerbates tension. It creates a false sense of security for its clients who believe they can get away with murder literally, as they did with a brutal murder. They do get away with murder of innocent civilians in yemen on a daily basis. John they made knows the good the fact they want to have regime change in iran. Would you like to see regime change in saudi arabia . No, we dont. John why not . We believe it is the business of the saudi people to decide about their government and we do not have any alternative to the current ruling regimes in the region. And that is not of our business. The business of the people to decide currently do not want to see regime change in any country. We are status quo power. Were content with our size. Were content with our population. Were content with our resources. Were. Content with our geography we dont seek anybody elses territory. We have no eye on somebody elses resources. They can live happy ever and after if they wish to, live in peace with their neighbors. The problem is they are not living in peace. Its not iran. If you want to look at malign behavior, you see that everybody in the region, everywhere where we have a problem, you have a saudi footprint, you have a uae footprint. In libya, industry done you have uae footprint. You do not have an iran footprint. If you want to look at malign behavior, you have to look elsewhere. Nejra the year in conversation continues. Europe found itself facing the threat of u. S. Auto tariffs. The e. U. Trade chief spoke to bloomberg. A we were trying to develop positive agenda where we stated we would not impose new tariffs on each other. Nejra and Christine Lagarde move to the ecb. She explains her leadership philosophy. Speaking in plain and simple language is the best way to help people with you and then taking ownership. Nejra this is bloomberg. Im, and this is a special edition of bloomberg best. Were wrapping up 2019 by playing back the years top interviews. U. S. Threatened to impose tariffs on auto imports, and eu trade commissioner promised to retaliate, but in a conversation with bloomberg in may, she made it clear she was not seeking out a confrontation. Betweenve an agreement titian or between European Commission president juncker and the u. S. Where we stated during that time we would not impose new tariffs on each other, so we hope the president will stick to those words. If he decides not to abide by that trade agreement, when do we see talley asian . One thing you said that was very clear was we will retaliate, we have to. Moment it is official, if it happens i still hope it wont then we will publish the information according to the who rules and do the final conference tester the final concentrations the final consultations, and with think it will happen quite rapidly. Clearr mandate makes it it should be just industrial goods. How do you square that when you only have a mandate for a very limited sector of eu goods . The eua to square that circle is do what we decided to do in july of last year a limited but still meaningful trade agreement on industrial goods. We also discussed some regulatory cooperation, performance assessment making it easier for companies to get their products qualified on each others markets, and that could be done quickly if we decide to do so, and that builds trust. Who knows what happens in the future . Could expand eight, but that is what we have a mandate to do in the future. Does not include act solude public procurement, something quick, easy, and mutually beneficial. If it gets to the point where agriculture is the only way to go forward, is this something you have to seriously consider . We will consider it. The European Commission can only negotiate on the basis of mandates. In november, the Eu Parliament elected germanys Ursula Vonda Lyon urszula leyen to lead the eu commission. She spoke about key priorities and goals for europe going forward. Theres a huge opportunity. Thehe moment, we are european front runner fighting europeanhange and technology. If we do well, it is not only good for the planet and not only good for the people, but it will also be good for the european economy because we will be the andrter of knowledge technology. When you look at the friction weve seen between germany and france over nato, merkel said it was too drastic. Do you see a bigger role for the eu within nato, or do you believe we have time to consider a bigger European Army . Nato will always be collective defense and nato is the Strongest Military alliance in the world. Many europeanhave Member States that are also members in nato european alliance. The europeanng up defensive union, knowing that it will be complementary to nato, it would leave us with the huge toolbox we have from Development Investment to diplomacy to servicemen and servicewomen, so that we are able to act when called upon. President heard from that europe needs to be more certain on the global stage versus the u. S. And china. What does that mean . In the business environment, impressivelot of people and you find an impressive start up environment, and of course, the willingness andan all the possibilities entertain the downside. We do here many times from u. S. Companies that the reason you are so focused on taxation is because we have not really seen any real innovation in europe. Do you agree with that . Is that fair . What is fair is to say to all the many businesses who pay their taxes in europe that not just some of them should contribute but that every company should contribute because that is the bottom line in europe. You do very Good Business here. Is that something you think by the end of 2020 there is no International Agreement and it would be fair for the eu to just go at it alone . Of course it would. We have strong believers in a global agreement. Im happy to see the progress made by the oecd. Thats a very strong push, and theres positive feedback on their first draft. Of course, that would be the ideal resolution, but if that cannot be met, when you look at the businesses who pay their taxes, it would only be fair that we pick it up again its a Global Solution is not possible. Quick space on what you hear from the oecd, this time there is momentum to get this done. We have been here many times and not actually seen progress made. Normally, i would not be optimistic, but i think now there actually is some momentum , and deeper understanding some ofrespect, i think also the Global Dialogue is changing. Even be on brexit, europe experienced internal stresses as france and germany sparred over key decisions. German chancellor Angela Merkel reflected on the challenges of achieving european reforms and the importance of compromise when she spoke with bloomberg editorinchief john micklethwait. Each and every one of us has different ideas where one ought to reform. That has always been the case in innco german history, and the end, france and germany have always to see if they can persuade all of vienna and european persuade all of the. Ther european Member States that is not always easy, and the way that germany argued, the way that friends argued has always been very different. France has always said or made a pact not the stability being so strictly adhered to or to rathernterpreted look more at the labor impact on the impact on jobs and be strict with a view to the financial effect that we will do so when we look at the Capital Market union, where we look at the budget of the European Union, and all of the other 25 if i , wee britain outside of it will have to persuade them. Think so. Im always open for compromise. For example, weve been heavily criticized on the copyright laws , very much attached importance to also protect the startups and their intellectual property rights, and that has in a way also brought us into conflict with our collision agreement where we said after eight years, after 10 years, we now finally have a common legislation on copyright and intellectual property. We have to make a compromise. We see a lot of young people out there demonstrating against that, but we have to strike a compromise. That is very much multilateral. Southsouth nejra africas president said the nation would keep bailing out its stateowned Power Company despite a mountain of debt. In the end, the nation has to stand behind it because it is too big to fail. Times, you have good good growth, you spend. That is a natural political reaction, and its very hard to resist. Nejra this is bloomberg. Im nejra cehic, and this is a special edition of bloomberg best. Nejra we are looking back at 2019 in business, finance, and politics in europe, the middle east, and africa through the lens of the years best interviews. When bloomberg spoke with south africas president in november, moodys had just lowered the countrys Credit Outlook to negative, saying south africa had three months to get its finances in order, a particular concern, the nations state Utility Company. We dont have to be dramatic to get things done. Weve got to Work Together with our partners and build consensus and take people along with us, that is is the style sure to produce better results. Of course people want dramatic events. They want bones to be broken. They want heads to be smashed, and we are saying in this country, weve done things a lot better by building consensus, working together, and it is this that has brought us to where we are. 25 years later, our economy yes, theres challenges, but it is poised to grow. Our political environment is stable, and that has been borne out of precisely this way of working. You got three months. Moodys, you just dodged an official downgrade. I dont need to tell you that. They want action. You warned me and said dont expect something dramatic, but the ark it wants to see something demonstrable from you. What will that be in the next three months . See a dealwants to with the Utility Company and deal with the debt. They also want us to deal with the expenditure. We have already committed to reducing expenditure on a number of platforms, but at the same time, we are focusing now, as i said in my main speech, on the debt, on how we will be able to deal with the debt, and we will be able to deal with the debt by improving operations because they were broke. Are you prepared to take on some of the debt onto the government . Were told it is cheaper to take the debt, stick it on the government Balance Sheet and move on. We have already taken quite a lot of debt by giving them bailouts, and the minister has said we no longer plan to give you bailouts. We are now going to give you loans, and these are loans that over time we will have to pay back, and that in a way is a very important step. Government has to stand behind the company because it is too big to fail and to important an entity in the life of our economy for it to fail, so we are committed to supporting it going forward. Have you created a moral hazard . You say it is too big to fail, but the reality of it is you are at war with some of the people in your cabinet in terms of what to do. Perhaps if i may challenge you, it is you who is blocking the road. No, it is not. We are going to restructure them and not turn back from that we have announced the modernization of our energy, a supplier, the way the world has gone in a number of countries. There is no other option, and of ,ourse people have the right they have all the freedom to express their views, and that is democracy toin a allow people to express themselves. December was an eventful month for saudi arabia. Launched the worlds biggest ipo in the kingdoms new Energy Minister delivered a lastminute surprise in his first opec plus meeting back announcing a deeper than expected production cut. He told us why he made the decision and how he managed to get the alliance in line after grueling talks in vienna. Why are you willing to cut more . Bebecause there will additional activity in the first quarter, and we have learned the best thing to do is preemptively lower production to make sure we we go onl with this as to the end of 2020. Isnt it just creating more for others to not comply with their quotas . Why i was asked in the press conference about why it took so long. We spend a good chunk of the ine reviewing what we need terms of getting sufficient assurances that those who have not complied fully will be complying. Otherwise it would not have given us any credence to look at additional murder look at additional mergers. We have seen all of these ministers be at the iraqi , and to athe nigerian lesser extent, the russian and by the way, i oh it to him they inform us and give us owe it toication i him. I would not like to put him in the same rank and file. That,ce we discuss all of we went on to discussing what we need to do. We decide, and more important how we can distribute the weight. I spent some time working with some bankers down in new york, and howh is correct can we work in dividing these things . T not going to be a science it is science, art, and sensibility. But what if they do not uphold their side of the bargain. Is the kingdom ready to go back to, say, the 2014 mentality . I dont think any sensible saudi Prime Minister would. , you know, we are flipping the page. As they move out of the conference room, i did say this time it is going to be different. Belief thatkind of i have. This is the kind of common weief and collective belief had last night and this morning and this afternoon, and i would like to carry on with that spirit. Ofhave also our means checking and verifying and validating these symbols. Also means of reaching out to each other and communicating when we see these promises met, but to say what i have on my shoulder in the terms of in terms of response ability, i would not take any kind of proactive measures without consulting with everybody. This is a special edition of bloomberg best. We are summing up the year with a conversation of bloomberg in the middle east and africa. Became theagarde first woman to take the helm of the European Central bank. The former imf managing director sat down exclusively with bloomberg in new york just weeks before stepping into her new position. Francine lacqua asked if europe has done enough to prepare for the next economic downturn. Eurothink europe and the zone in particular have to go and little further, and i mean, you are very familiar with europe. It is a continuum and there has been high momentum, slow momentum, but it has to be a continuum, and more needs to be done to complete the you have heard that many times that complete the banking union, make sure there is a European Security market that is deeper and broader, having enough of a fiscal space that is in common, however you call it, but that can be used eventually to stabilize. I think all those three, which are not particularly glamorous and sexy for the european citizens, but constitute the foundation and infrastructure upon which they can do development and security. Should we have done more in good times to prepare . Yeah, but most policies in most of these countries, unfortunately, and contrary to expectations have been foresight limited. Its very hard to resist. And good times, you spend. That is the natural political reaction. Start times, we consolidating, which is exactly the opposite of what should happen. Im very pleased to see that finance ministers in europe are looking at the growth and stability pact to make it more efficient and simple. It is such a complex myriad of different packs, as if anybody understood what the packs were. What happens that we have not had that dialogue . I dont think it is people wanting to talk to themselves in narrow circles, but i think you tend to isolate yourself with very jargonic stuff. Think to have constantly present in the back of your mind and on your screen eventually, grandchildren, children, family members, people you care about whom you would like to understand what youre doing, forces you to explain in simple rgonic is a way to deal with your insecurity and isolate yourself. Speaking plain and simple language is the best way to have people with you and them take ownership. Europe is a beautiful, beautiful creation of visionary men who wanted to avoid war yet again, and that requires multiple thers from foundations all way from defense to Common Energy policy. On my homework list because its for the European Commission, the European Council to move forward with, but im convinced there is that impulse, and i very much trust that urszula, the president of the European Commission, will move in that direction. See much more of that exclusive conversation with Christine Lagarde as well as many more compelling interviews on bloomberg. Com. We hope you have enjoyed these snversations from Bloomberg Television coverage during 2019. We look forward to bringing you more news, analysis, and interviews in the year ahead. Beyond the routine checkups. Beyond the notsoroutine cases. Comcast business is helping doctors provide care in whole new ways. All working with a new generation of technologies powered by our gigspeed network. Because beyond technology. There is human ingenuity. Every day, comcast business is helping businesses go beyond the expected. To do the extraordinary. Take your business beyond. Coming up, highlights from the 2019 Bloomberg Global business for them. We are trying to drive a systemic change, a transformational change. Abigail leaders from this is a government speaking about the most urgent challenges. We believe that the earth is our mother and we do not have the right to exploit our earth. Leaders from business and government. There is fear around this nexus of trading climate. A lot of policies are supposed to lift up the people and they dragged them down. Abigail