Lets dive deeper into the Market Action as we review the close and check in with our reporters. I am taking a look at copper futures, which may have been down on the day, but they are headed for a fifth weekly rise. This is happening amid improving sentiment on Global Growth and as the trade outlook remains in focus. Tone inas found firmer recent weeks as the u. S. And china move closer to a trade deal. It also leads exchanges. Investors are watching copper closely after it paired some gains earlier. This is after reports that xi jinping will not attend januarys World Economic forum in davos, which would have been a perfect chance for he and u. S. President donald trump to meet facetoface. Interesting how todays rally has been somewhat led by the defensive industries. Health care, drugs, consumer staples. Children is poster utilities. They are very strong today. Stocks in of the 28 the s p that our utilities are up today. That is sending valuations backup to levels never seen before. Ons tended to be the lid rallies and utilities. Aboutnow they are back to 21. 4. It is really that dividend yield that is most important for utilities. That chart, that 3 level on the dividend yield really capped the rally in this group in september and then again in october. Now we are just a little bit above 3 . It will be interesting to see if that number holds again and utilities start to fade if they dip below 3 dividend yield. Into my going back over area, which is about the growth market. I want to take a look at a chart in my terminal. Tradingorical average about 17 times. Take a look at the stocks now. , muchg about 20 times higher than the s p 500, which is trading at about 18 times or so. Leading onve been the upside and bleeding on the downside. If the analysts think this is overvalued, it could be a telltale sign for the rest of the markets. I sound like a broken record. More record highs, more overvalued. Joe one day we will have something new to say. Andl with us, former trader bloomberg voice, vince, and Wells Fargo Asset Management strategist, brian jacobson. Lets talk about those multiassets. Weve been talking about stocks, but weve also seen that even with the risk on move, we havent had the big selloff in treasuries. 2020 going to be another strong year . I think it depends on how you want to define strong. Not likely as strong as 2019. We are probably going to be somewhat range bound with the 10 year treasury. My friends at wells fargo put out their annual outlook. We are probably going to be up towards maybe 2. 2 . We could go lower than what we are now. A fairly decent range. When you look at the opportunities in fixed income, we would rather be looking at some of the credit risk as opposed to the duration risk, but we are really not that afraid of duration risk. You could still get a positive total return provided you are on the right side of the yield curve. But we are a little more excited about some of the opportunities in higherquality junk and when it comes to looking for income, more thinking about Equity Income as opposed to fixed income. Scarlet as brian mentioned, he sees rates staying in a range here. How much of that is determined by how the dollar moves . Interestinges an point. The upper end is 2. 2 . We could see that going into the First Quarter next year. A lot of people are talking the dollar lower. I saw it lower about a month ago. The 10o see that in year, with the Inflation Numbers we saw today, real yields in the u. S. Are going to be very attractive to foreign investors. Much if we still get a positive feel on the trade picture. We could see a break in this correlation. They might both move up in the First Quarter together. Scarlet no kidding. Mention heard vince trade. Obviously of the sort of ongoing headline always kept traders on edge. Have the phaset one signed. As soon as it is signed, in theory, there is a phase two. Will trade and broader politics drive a been to safety in 2020 . We feel that it can. As yogi berra said, it aint over until it is over. Whenuld see who knows what it comes to comments out of the white house as it relates to trade. A big fear that we have is if this is viewed as a victory as far as this phase one deal, is President Trump going to turn his ire or increase his ire on europe . Threat that expired on auto imports from europe to the u. S. If this is viewed as a victory with china, is it going to become a playbook for how we talk about trade with europe in the next year. Scarlet and creating some more tension and worries. When seen in the past, theres progress on trade or seeming progress on trade, markets rally, and the dollar reacts as well, and the president takes advantage of the fact that he has some room to work with. Exceptionales an point. Germany is in a really difficult spot. China has made mention of banning huawei in germany. We will see auto tariffs from china. Capitulates, you could see some turn around and say, we are going to pot auto tariffs on your cars. Is caught between a rock and a hard place. Tariffsthey are hit by from the u. S. Or china, the largest growth economies in the world, it kind of makes you think that asia is a better investment. Joe interesting. People have been very excited about europe lately. But you are not buying it . Im not even a fan of the currency. Every time you buy the euro, and i talked to traders and smile, you are going to be selling it at 110. People think we can buy it at 110, but they will be selling at 109. I dont think the euro holds up, even against sterling. Joe they have some issues. Scarlet they have a new guy to lead everything, right, Andrew Bailey . Im curious to see what his approach will be. No one really knows where hes going to go. Scarlet can we count on the bank of england to stay out of the way as Boris Johnson government moves ahead with a brexit whether or not he get something in writing . Im not exactly sure. If mark carney was staying on longer, i would be a little more nervous. Before the brexit vote, he was poised to start hiking. Not that the fed was really all that aggressive with hiking. Inclined to hike faster. Bailey, not quite sure where he stands. Seems like hes a bit of a continuity candidate here. A lot of people were betting on it. I think that the market is expecting that brexit, because it is still uncertain, that we dont have to worry too much about the bank of england. Maybe a little bit too excited about euro strength. My team completely agrees with that. It is probably, you could see the dollar rise relative to the euro, and the pound rise relative to the euro as well. Scarlet i love it, we actually got skepticism to push back on all the optimism. Just some things to watch out for. Former trader and voice of bloombergs, vince, and wells fargo strategist, brian jacobson. Thank you so much. That does it for the closing bell. Whatd you miss . Is up next, where we will be hearing from the chairman and ceo of bank of america. This is bloomberg. Scarlet we are live from bloombergs World Headquarters in new york. Of how u. S. Pshot stocks closed today. Higher than average volume, record highs once again. Politics as usual for once. President trump accepts Speaker Pelosis invitation to deliver the state of the union in february. Another blow for boeing. The debut flight of the star liner fails to reach the International Space station. And, under the microscope. Why the sec may be investigating. Weve got more on that report. Seven democratic president ial candidates taking the debate stage in l. A. Last night under the shadow of impeachment. It was the Smallest Group of white house hopefuls yet. Debated policy, Speaker Pelosi and Mitch Mcconnell remain in a deadlock over the impeachment process. Joining us now by phone is bloombergs congressional editor. Lets start first with the question of impeachment. Is there a serious negotiation and possibility that there will be a substantial trial in the senate, or does it seem like mitch holds all the cards, majority leader mcconnell, and will be able to dispatch with things quickly . Mitch mcconnell does hold most of the cards, although 51 senators are needed to open procedures. Conceivably, you could have moderate senators joining with democrats to indulge some witnesses if they wanted to call additional people, like john bolton or mike pompeo. Those are the demands from democrats. At this point, it looks like the senate is marching towards a quick acquittal of President Trump, probably in a matter of two or three weeks. Scarlet pretty quick, and for many members of the senate, they want to get back to the campaign trail. We had the seven democratic president ial candidates there are more than seven, but seven of them debate yesterday. It seems like joe biden now looks like hes the candidate to beat. Anna hes a pretty resilient front runner even with all his momentary missteps, some unsteadiness in previous debates. Stagek the smaller debate really plays to his strengths, where you can engage in a bit more of a conversation. Seemed like aly strong front runner and a formidable candidate. May bee candidate who having some signs of momentum in this race, amy klobuchar, senator from minnesota. Shot at have a joining what is perceived to be the top tier of candidates . Anna it is possible. But it is going to be tough. Out overo really stand the next few weeks if shes going to break into that top tier of candidates. I think what we are seeing is really an attempt of democratic toers who want a candidate continue to shop around. Maybe they are not confident with joe biden. Maybe they are unsure of pete buttigieg. That leaves them with maybe amy klobuchar. Fundraisinget more ,nd play with the ground game she could have an actual shot at scarlet this. Scarlet scarlet i started off by saying it was kind of unusual that it was politics as usual, because the president accepted the invitation to deliver the state of the union. Our things ok between those two . Im kind of surprised that things happened as they should. Anna it is a weird week on capitol hill. You had this bitter partisan impeachment process, where people were accusing the other side of shredding the constitution, then the next day, you had overwhelming bipartisan support for the usmca, the north american trade deal. It seems like there are certain aspects that are just coming along. President trump is not going to give up that stage. Hes going to use that to make his case to the american people. Scarlet and he will do that in early february. Thank you so much for putting the weekend context for us. Now, from domestic to international. Bloomberg spoke with the Fidelity International ceo to get her Global Outlook for the year ahead. Heres what she said. 2020, we talkinto once again about potentially getting a deal between china and the u. S. I think that will be helpful because that will get the flow of capital moving around the world and that will be helpful. U. K. E u. K. , when the leaves the e. U. At the end of january, at that moment, the u. K. Will be in a position to negotiate in the trade deal. Back to be will bring the fore again. It may be that after a more difficult period it goes more positively. Time will tell. How difficult is it for navigateo validate volatile geopolitical situations . Volatility per se. If i would have said every single year in my career, every single year theres been geopolitical stuff i cant remember the year where things didnt happen. It is not like that today. I think what i do observe now is calls of capital are more narrowly circumscribed. Tois partly in response things like banking regulation. Within a bank structure, capital is defined by country. It is defined by the type of business within that country. How muchscribed within capital it has. That has been done to try to remove Systemic Risk. When something happens unexpectedly over here, it is not always that easy for capital to jump from one pool to another pool. , and perhapsgely without intention, while trying to remove Systemic Risk from individual banks, weve created a diff risk, which is that capital cant move around in response to an event. At the oddok contortions in the currency market, i think there is this sense that once in a while we had a warning signal, but capital cant just move to where it needs to. And i think that is giving regulators pause at the moment. We need a set of rules that manage the daytoday runofthemill conditions we are in, but we also need a set , inules which they actually an unexpected condition, are those same rules in that situation, are they actually making the situation worse . I think that is a conversation that needs a lot more fleshing out. Joe that was Fidelity International ceo and richards speaking to bloombergs francine lacqua. Coming up, another blow for boeing. Why the failure of the star liner deepens the companys crisis. This is bloomberg. Is. This is bloomberg. Joe more bad news for boeing as its star liner spacecraft fails to reach the international station on space its debut flight. Here with more is justin. Thanks for joining us. What do we know about why this attempt to reach the iss failed . The officials at nasa and boeing said that it was because of a clock issue. There is a timing system that needs to be followed and the spacecraft, its timing system was on the wrong time, and it started doing things out of sequence, such as fire rockets, which put it into the wrong orbit. Right now the investigation is in full speed to find out why that clock system was not working right. Scarlet so it is still very much a work in progress. What does this mean when it comes to the plan overall for boeing to launch human flights, send astronauts to the International Space station . That is a fair assumption at this point. The plan was for the first half of 2020 for both boeing and spacex. Right now nasa wants to know what went wrong and what fix is going to be required to that system. I think it is a safe conclusion that there will be further delay in a program that has already had more than two years of delays for both companies because there have been a number of other challenges. It is possible that it could push everything back to next year. Feedsalk about how it into the broader crisis. While the issue may have been minor and technical, when it comes to spaceflight, theres is nothing that is actually minor and technical. Getting these things right is the essence of it all. A very difficult environment in which to operate. I think the bigger issue is that with the grounding of the max and trying to get that 737 model back into the skies next year, there could be a perception around the company that things arent working, that something needs to be corrected either by the top management or the board of directors. So far the Company Stock has held up pretty well. It kind of feeds into that broader narrative. And i think that is one reason that they didnt need to do that today. Scarlet certainly. Is there any doubt as to Dennis Muilenburgs leadership at the company . I think right now the company is focused on the max and getting that product back into the sky so they can deliver and get paid for it. Cash generatorst there. Right now that is what has to happen. If there are further delays on that, i think that increases the pressure for the board of directors to do something. Scarlet justin, thank you so much. Coming up, unicorns coming under pressure. Why the sec may be investigating listings. Weve got more on that report. This is bloomberg. Mark im mark upton with bloomberg first word news. Nancy pelosi has invited President Trump to deliver his state of the Union Address on february 4, 2020. In a letter to the president , the speaker says the invitation comes in the spirit of respecting our constitution. Nancy pelosi and Mitch Mcconnell remain at an impasse over impeachment. She said she will not transmit the articles of impeachment until the senate lays out the procedures for the trial. Mcconnell says the house cannot dictate terms. A major u. S. Evangelical christian magazine founded by the late reverend billy graham published an editorial on thursday calling for president removal from office. Envisionsial that they will remain trump backers. Give thee did president credit for supporting causes important to eventually such as prolife and freedom issues but we have gone to a point where those things no longer balance the scale. The impeachment hearings, it became pretty clear pretty quickly unambiguously that the president misused his office for political gain. He slanders people. He mischaracterizes people. He outright lies. He says things. Verbally abusive to others. These are problems. Mark the magazine was starkly critical of former president bill clintons moral fiber doing the democratss 1998 impeachment proceedings, calling clinton morally unable to lead. President trump called christianity today farleft. More than a dozen states and newark city new york city are fighting against a protection of the nations waterways. Ignoredm the epa science regarding smaller or flowing bodies of water. The epa tried to bring those waterways under the protection of the clean water act under obama. U. S. Regulators have taken a crucial step in the battle against the deadly ebola virus. The food and Drug Administration approved a vaccine developed and made by merck. It was found to be 100 effective when given at least 10 days in advance. The tests were conducted in guinea during a 2014 the 2016 outbreak. An ongoing outbreak in congo has killed more than 2000 people. Global news, 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. Im mark crumpton. This is bloomberg. Sec reportedly sec is reportedly invested getting the listing of slack and others. It focuses on how trade was handled on the companys first day they listed publicly. For more, lets bring in bloombergs u. S. Finance editor michael moore. We dont have a lot of details on this probe yet. We know there is growing interest from all parties on these direct listings. Mightbout the structure investigators just be sort of interested in knowing more about . Michael it is hard to know for sure. Declining to comment at this point. Anytime you have a hot new structure or product, is going to attract some attention from investors and potentially regulators. The reason direct listings have gotten more popular is some criticism of the ipo process, that it can Value Companies to low,move too much too move too much value to the shareholders. There are questions about destabilization on the first day. How do you maximize . Whether all the boxes are being checked in that process. Those are things the sec could be looking at. Well have many details on what specifically they are honing in on. It seems like the early stages so it could be timing at this point. Scarlet lets bring in linda over the phone. Andissance has a global ipo find an ipo etf. Does it concern you these listings are trading are the first death on the first day of the way these listings are trading on the first day of training . There are only two. Yes, it is a concern. Not only the distribution aspect of it once the first trade has occurred. Theit also is the way that insiders and company communicate with potential shareholders prior to the trade. Joe you have been following ipos for a long time, and you see the evolution, perhaps more direct listings. Are there aspects of the process that in particular you would like to learn more about or have more transparency on . Linda yes. I think the direct listings have by the New York Stock Exchange as a very good to liquidate as lot of fairly substantial parts of their holdings of these Large Companies. And it just appears as though the mechanism by which the first trade occurs is not as tonsparent as it could be potential new public shareholders. Scarlet ok. Understood. Michael, when we talk about direct listings and how it bypasses the traditional, leaving them on the sidelines unable to make money, what are you hearing from the banks on how they could maybe find their way back into the process . Are they changing the way they do things . Michael you are seeing them try to move in that direction. Morgan stanley got a roll on one of the direct listings as an advisor to the designated market maker. There is perhaps less money going to the banks, but they are still finding a way to get on these deals. Some of these banks have had their own conferences promoting this as perhaps a wave of the future. You got to keep in mind that one of the things that allows direct listings is it is oftentimes companies that dont need new capital. So that limits the universe of companies that probably would go in that direction. Joe linda, big picture as some of these issues continue to get worked out. Do you see direct listings continue to Grow Market Share regardless . Linda it all depends permit direct listings probably work best for very Large Companies that already are very well known. And they work best when the principal objective is for the insiders to sell lots of shares into a Public Market in a very efficient manner for them. However, for the investing public, the ipo process is probably the better of the two alternatives. And for perhaps issuers looking to raise new capital, simply because the ipo process allows a company to get itself in front of investors in a very exciting way and to tell their story over the course of several weeks. Scarlet right. And subjecting themselves to that due diligence. Linda and michael, thank you both so much for hopping onto the desk and giving us context on this developing story. This is bloomberg. Bitcoin has rallied aggressively this week, surging back about 7000. It has had a really good here, up about 95 for the year but well off of its highs. What is next for the firstborn cryptocurrency . Here for an outlook is the cofounder and president of coin list. It has had a good year. It is also well off its highs. 2020, the big event coming up next year is the socalled happening where the block report is going to shrink. It happens every four years. Some people think the diminished new supply of the coins will mean supply and demand equation improves. What is your guess for whether this proves to be a major catalyst . I think it is a big milestone. People look forward to it. The trick is we know when it happens. That to me means it is priced in. People trading at significant volumes that are smart traders know when this is happening, when the increased supply is going to slow down. To me, that has to be priced in already. Maybe there is movement around it because it is a major news event but i dont think it has the supply and demand impact people think it will. Scarlet does it mean people will trade in and out of it to get to other cryptocurrencies and look into another entry point into bitcoin . How does it compare with other cryptocurrencies when you get this once every four years happening . Andy i dont think you happening itself will have much of an impact. You could have made your move already. Dont need to wait for that moment. That said, i am feeling way more excitement now that i have felt in the last 18 months. It feels like momentum is really building in the space. Bitcoin is up this week although down the last month or so. We have seen a level of building that has happened in 2019. Everyone is putting on their jumpsuits, getting ready to go and take off. We have not seen that since 2017. Joe lets talk about that building because there are two sides to this. One is what we see at the institutional level. I feel like every day, some new custodial Digital Currency as an holding solution and then there is the building that happens on the protocol level, which is improving the privacy, scalability, things like that. Which part was more exciting to you in 2019 . Andy i think they are exciting in different ways. On the custodial side, it seems like a slow march to competing. They satisfy more and more needs of a broader set of investors. There is talk of an institutional wave of capital coming in. I dont see that. I see a slow rising tide. We will see them march into the space and net inflows happening. The particle side is a bita bity ier bit lumpy or. That is the most exciting thing that can happen in the space but is less certain. Nowis not that you k something will launch but they reach maturity and gain traction. That is what we are all here for. Scarlet i cover the etf industry as well and wanted to get your thoughts on a bitcoin etf because people have been waiting for it, applying for it, registering for it. The sec keeps saying thanks but no thanks or not yet. We dont know when that will come. We have someone winning regulators back in for an integral fund that can serve as a steppingstone that will hold Bitcoin Futures but not the underlying asset. How big of a move is this . Is it critical in terms of opening the floodgates . Andy i would compare it to the happening we talked about earlier. It is building up to something that will cause huge inflows into the space. I believe if you wanted to buy bitcoin, you found a way already. Of course, buying it on the large trusted spot exchanges. I dont think there is a large amount of capital waiting on the sidelines for it to launch. It will broaden the access, good thing. Joe there are a number of things that could point to a bullish future. Happening, institutional things being built out, protocol advances. On the other hand, you look at the state of crypto. Anrall, it is incredible amount of complete garbage out there. It will never have any future projects that are completely pointless. Does it give you pause on your optimism that we have not seen more of that yet . Andy if you think back to 2017, we have run under a dozen. 3500 inbound. There are thousands that have tried and failed. Now it is harder for that to happen. We are seeing less and less of the garbage. It is still there. But investors are getting much more discerning. They are able to tell much better. That gives me optimism. Are there still problems in the space . Absolutely, but it is slowly getting washed out. Joe the inbound, desire to do token offerings, there is still interest in it . There is still interest. Andy but the bottom chunkandy of the market has dropped out. The overall volume has gone down. About the same number today as 2017 and we will continue to see that in the future. Scarlet andy talking about the happening. I learned something new every day. Coming up, an exclusive interview with the bank of america chairman and Ceo Brian Moynihan to get his thoughts. This is bloomberg. Mberg. Scarlet scarlet we now want to give you a bloomberg exclusive. Brian moynihan sat down with our david westin to discuss his outlook for the u. S. Economy. The economy is slowing down, and the question was could people be assured that it would keep going. In 2019. Te raged the worldwide slowdown was another aspect. We went from a 3 growth rate to the low 2 to whatever it was. The debate was it is slowing down but will it not keep slowing down . It was clear that was not the case. But everyone was starting to talk into that was the case. Then you added into it a couple of major geopolitical discussions going on. Think about it. The last four months really you have seen things resolve even though we had something that people said would affect it, which was impeachment. That was not the view of the market or growth, and that comes down to the u. S. Consumer. David we also had three rate cuts from the fed. How much did that help slow the decline . Brian i think as the fed said in the minutes and the discussion around this, there is not insurance to put a little more in the economy to make sure that decline and growth rate bottomed out or people thought it was going to bottom out. If what you have seen is as we look at the statistics whether it is todays confidence numbers, they all started moving back in little north. Still a little tough on the institutional side and commercial side in terms of there is a true inventory recession the first part of the year. That classic working through the trade issues. On the consumer side, strength. It gave the fed the confidence to put the policy on the table, and it appears to be enough now. David they indicated they will stand pat unless things change through 2020. Do they need to keep cutting to keep the growth going . Brian i dont think they do because of the consumer. We look at the consumer. We talkedwe talked, about the year over Year Growth Rate for that time being 520 . It still 5. 8 . It still is. It is close to 6 now. You are seeing it through cyber monday. You will have discussions about how many days between thanksgiving and christmas. Even halfway through, you are seeing the growth trade at 6 yearoveryear. Credit card, almost 10 overall. Good about the consumer in the u. S. That is two thirds of the u. S. Economy. It is as big as chinas economy. Those are big anchors. In europe, consumers are spending also. A big part of the worlds economy is moving forward. David you have a Vantage Point that no one else has, very few have, thats for sure. When you look at the lines for the consumer, do you see any over performance or under underperformance . Brian what you are seeing is wages are growing in the Median Income area and lower growing faster now, which is good. You go back to what the fed was trying to do. They were try to make sure the tight labor market translates to income growth. That has been consistent from chair yellen to chair powell. Same thought process. Seeing that happen now at an accelerating rate. That is a good thing because that means there is more money to more people and more people are spending it. It is a good thing. That insight you see is translated into broadbased spending. There is a little bit of difficulty in spending on things versus spending on experiences, going to do stuff, going out to dinner. You see them both remain strong with initial emphasis on experience, electronics, things that are not necessarily a car or some thing like that, but people can consume. David from what you see at bank of america, can we keep this going with respect to the consumers . Economists say you have to have more people working or higher productivity. We are not getting a lot more people working in terms of the overall population size. Productivity growth is not as robust as it has been. Brian this is a great question. We are in a nice equilibrium where the job growth is more than enough to absorb the population growth. You see the participation rate. You have seen the underemployment rate keep coming down. Those are all good things. If you hear the experts talk about there is still a lot potential slack out there, there is a lot of people that can work that we are pulling back in. The question longterm will be you went out of those people at some point. South with further the underemployment rate coming down also, you will start to run out of people. That is the question about immigration getting a bipartisan structural thing that feeds immigration. Away from the other types of things that get tied up. Joe that was part of an exclusive interview with bank of america chairman and Ceo Brian Moynihan. I thought it was interesting what he said at the very end about needing more people eventually because that is true on some level. But it is pretty extraordinary how long people have thought we would love to get full employment. Scarlet absolutely. Has to do with demographics as well. As baby boomers retire, millennials are taking up a big part of that. At some point, you will need the group below them to kick in. I also found it interesting when he talked about how incomes are growing faster in areas where it was not happening before. That is what the fed has been gunning for. It feels like it was jay powells unofficial third mandate a couple times at the fomc meeting. Joe we know inequality is a huge story and huge problem in this economy. It is one of the bright spots out there that we see wage growth happening faster at the lowend. Scarlet we have a lot happening next week. It is a holiday shortened week. Markets are closed wednesday for christmas day. Joe i will be watching ecodata. Numbers for jobless claims come out thursday. Subscribe to our weekly podcast on itunes. You will get the best content from the entire week to enjoy over the weekend. Scarlet from new york, this is bloomberg. Taylor im taylor riggs chang and this is bloomberg technology. Coming up in the next hour, secret projects. Apple is said to have a team working on satellite technology. The initiative will allow it to bypass wireless networks. We will have the latest. Plus, a pay raise. The head of google takes the reins of apple bet