The twostens spread is up 31 basis today. Been a while since weve been that wide on the spread. A far cry from the negative numbers we saw earlier in the year. A little bit of weakness today for the british pound. We are waiting for Boris Johnson to speak to lawmakers in parliament. Has gotten several upgrades. There are still some analysts cautious about the fundamentals, but generally, that type of a gooddata is seen as outlook. In europe, we are seeing a mixed bag with carmakers again, kind of in trouble today. They are dragging down the dax. We also have a couple of french carmakers lower after the deal with fiat yesterday. We will get into Boris Johnsons plans in a few minutes. The stoxx europe is all told, flat. At 22 basisield points right now. That is the most positive we have seen it in negative territory for quite some months. Later this hour, we will be watching Prime MinisterBoris Johnson speaking in parliament after laying out his legislative priorities earlier, with a focus of course on brexit and Funding Health care. Lots of other priorities in that statement, though. We will bring it to you when it happens. Meantime, the u. S. House of representatives impeached donald trump on charges of abuse of power and obstructing congress, deepening the partisan devise in congress. President trump addressed the crowd at a rally in battle creek, michigan. Pres. Trump we did nothing wrong. We did nothing wrong. We have tremendous support in the republican party, like weve never had before. Alix the senate plans to hold a vonnie the senate plans to hold a trial in the new year to decide whether he should be convicted and removed from office. Or more, lets bring in Emily Wilkins from washington, d. C. The surprise isnt going to be in january, when the senate happens to hold its trial. There might be surprises that will emanate from that trial, however. What are analysts and your sources telling you . Emily right now, theres a lot of debate in washington about what we are going to see during this trial, whether or not we are going to see witnesses being brought for the senators. Right now, theres been some discussion of that, but Senate Majority leader Mitch Mcconnell wants to try and keep this as short as he possibly can. Theres been discussion about having no witnesses at this point. The white house has got a little bit back and forth, but it sounds like they might agree with that, so we might see a fairly short trial in the senate. Vonnie we are watching live pictures of Mitch Mcconnell speaking on the floor. What is the significance in terms of risk for the 2020 campaign . Emily absolutely, the senators right now who are running for president , it is about a month out for some of the first primaries. It is very important to be in iowa talking with voters, and the longer the trial goes on, the more time they cant spend with voters. For this senate trial, every senator must be present. ,hey are simply sitting listening, asking questions, and they need to be there for the full day. That is a requirement under the law. Vonnie the president s campaign is insisting this is actually a boon for him, and obviously he spoke for hours last night in michigan. What exactly do they mean by that . What are we seeing in the polls . Emily President Trump emphasized a lot last night that there werent any republicans in the house who supported the articles of impeachment. All republicans were united in opposing the articles of impeachment. Some of them did say they had concerns about President Trumps conduct in regards to ukraine, but everyone agreed it did not rise to the level of an impeachable offense. Vonnie what about swing districts . What is the concern for the president s campaign . Emily in regards to impeachment, trump is actually and i think other republican groups are as well seeing that impeachment has split the country pretty evenly, so they are using this to sort of rally his supporters. In the house, you have the democratic majority that was made in part by democrats who won trump districts, so you are seeing the Republican House campaign arm really come out and make sure that they are doing everything they can to tie these vulnerable members to their impeachment vote. Meanwhile, the members are trying to create some space, trying to focus on other things such as the trade agreement between mexico and canada that will be voted on later today. Vonnie Emily Wilkins, thank you for joining us. That is bloomberg governments Emily Wilkins and washington, d. C. Lets check on the bloomberg first word news. Heres ritika. Ritika Goldman Sachs is in talks with the u. S. Government 1mdby a fine in the scandal. Goldman has been accused of ignoring warning signs while billions of dollars were looted from its clients. Clients, the Malaysian Investment Fund 1mdb. That aals court found key piece of the Affordable Care act is unconstitutional. The case has been sent back to the judge who struck it down a year ago. Decision probably wont come before next years election. It pits President Trump and a texasled coalition against, Craddock States against democratic states. Claims fell by 18,000 to 234,000. The late thanksgiving holiday may be responsible for some late adjustment issues. Launch a space capsule into orbit tomorrow. The plan is for it to rendezvous with the International Space station and return to earth. If all goes well, nasa could resume manned flights next year, the first since the Space ShuttleProgram Ended in 2011. Global news 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. Im ritika gupta. This is bloomberg. Vonnie thank you. I want to bring in Vince Cignarella now, who joins us from our mliv team. Impeachment hasnt had much of an impact on markets this morning, but we did get some data i wanted to ask you about. A little disappointing. Anything to be concerned about . Vincent not really. Indexes isnomic primarily manufacturing based, and we have seen a slump in manufacturing this year that does continue. That to be lacking when it should be leading best adjust manufacturing will continue to goingeight on the economy forward. Home sales a little bit disappointing, but at the same time, the builders index last week was at a 20 year high, so with balance, markets are looking good. At the same time, the supply of homes on the market has shrunk. I think it was 3. 9 to 3. 7. So the underlying numbers were pretty decent for home sales. Vonnie the twostens spread is up 30 basis points. How significant is this . It doesnt feel massively wide, but it is well wider than we have seen. Vincent i dont think it is something to worry about too much. Vonnie no, im saying the opposite. We should be excited. Vincent oh, totally. Its a great thing. Its adjusts people think the economy is going to grow. At the longer end, rates will be a bit higher. The fed basically said they are on hold for 2020. This suggests there is maybe a demand for for potential higher inflation. Vonnie Vince Cignarella, thank you for that update. Stories at mliv for more now on impeachment, and of course, Boris Johnson speaking in a few moments, lets bring in danny branchflower, professor of economics at dartmouth. He joins us today from naples, florida. Vonnie. I, vonnie im curious as to whether you think theres any risk associated market wise with the impeachment of President Trump. Obviously, we are not seeing an Immediate Impact come about longer term, does this have any secondary implications . Danny i always like to try and teach my students that markets with spohn to surprises, and i think markets respond to surprises, and i think at this point, theres really been no real surprises. I think the worry certainly is that the central bank appears to not have a clue whats going on, and has basically said we are waiting for some data to come in. The worry is if we get some really bad data, that would in a way be a surprise to the markets, and the fed would have to step in, by which point it would be too late. I dont think at the moment theres really anything to be concerned about in the sense that the markets put much know whats coming. Isnt look like the senate is going to remove him. We will see. But going forward, i think the u. S. Economy and Monetary Policy is very much waiting for some bad shoe to drop because essentially, the fed has given up its forecast on inflation, unemployment, gdp growth. They dont really know whats coming. So we are in a lets wait and see, but i think we are more susceptible to bad news then we have been in the past. Vonnie what is your explanation for why there doesnt seem to be any shoe dropping whatsoever . Markets are holding up, the Economic Data is not so terrible, and it really seems like the fundamentals are holding solid. Danny it is pretty interesting the recovery has not turned over yet, the longest recovery ever, that markets are pretty strong, and that the u. S. Labor market does seem pretty resilient. The obvious concern, i think, is that we should look at manufacturing. I think the concern for the politicians, perhaps for trump, is manufacturing and agriculture , but particularly manufacturing, looks weak in states like pennsylvania, ohio, wisconsin. Places that are in the midwest that are going to be important in 2020. But really, we would have expected this to happen with no sign of inflation in the horizon. So i think the answer is it is a bit of a puzzle. Growth isnt fantastic, but its not terrible. On keeping on for a while, but eventually recoveries die of old age, or something happens that stops them. So lets keep on going, but we cant go on forever. Vonnie if we take a step back from the markets just for a second, what is the most interesting thing to you about this house impeachment and consequences . Obviously a senate trial and consequences for the campaign, be it geopolitical significance, social significance. What do you talk about, in other words, at a dinner party when it comes to this impeachment . Danny well, i also talk about it in my class. Is ank the issue right now lot of people are hurting. Theyve been left behind in the labor market. We have lots of despair, lots of hurt, particularly amongst white, less educated adults. Anyway, whats happened is we have this disconnect. We have the president of the United States offering change, support, hope for those people, and the base continues to be strong, and he democrats fighting with one another. The big question you have to ask is what is it the democrats can offer . In 2018, they offered health care. Is one wee big story were talking about today, which is that the Appeals Court has basically gone back on obamacare and suggested we may well see all of the republican attorneys general remove that, which would give the democrats something to fight about. But you have to offer change, and what do the democrats have to offer . Suddenly, that domestic balance changes, and i think we see markets more in upheaval. But at the moment, nothing much is happening. Vonnie just to point out that you are referring to the decision on the individual mandate that may make the whole unconstitutional. Obviously, the democrats will put together some kind of strategy for the campaign for the election, but you mentioned the people that are suffering out there. Up ase they not turning much as they perhaps should be in the data . We have had conversations about the Consumer Holding up. Where is it in the data . Evidence certainly see in the data of rising despair. We see it in suicide, opioids, people dying from cirrhosis of the liver. But theres a lot of evidence out there now that this group of white, less said, educated, prime age folk, are in trouble. We have seen a big rise of what i have been writing about, despair. Over the last 30 days, how many Bad Mental Health days have you had . Say 30 ofnk of people the last 30 days, and the proportion of that is now , one in eight or so say that everyone of the last 30 days have been bad ones. That is going on at a time where the economy is growing, we talked about stock markets rising, but the problem is these folks dont share in the spoils. They dont have houses. They dont have stock market. They dont have 401 k s, and trump has given them hope. ,hats sort of whats going on but at some point, those folks have to deliver those folks, you have to deliver. I think thats one of the big issues to deal with. Vonnie we are going to come back and speak more. We want to ask you about Boris Johnson and his plans for another developed economy. Danny branchflower joining us today from florida. We will react to the boe decision as well. Theres jeremy corbyn. Prime minister Boris Johnson will soon speak, coming after the queens speech earlier which laid out johnsons government agenda. This is bloomberg. This queens speech contains nothing of substance to deal with the colossal challenge of climate. , ime live from new york vonnie quinn. This is bloomberg markets. We are back with danny branchflower. So much to talk about regarding britain, obviously. Im curious as to your reaction to the vote to the other day, the fact that Boris Johnson got such a big mandate, and what apparently is going to be his plan for the next 10 years. Golly. I think what was interesting was that the polls seems to get it right. The result was approximately right in the middle of the polling range. Sense, but you had was a clarity. You had Boris Johnson say we are going to get brexit done, and then we had the labour party that basically said we dont know what we are doing come up with a leader that nobody likes, fudged. Lib dems just thats why he one. Now i think the crucial question be the devil will be in the detail. What settlement do they actually come up with, particularly in relation to ireland, where i was the other day . The talk of their was they better not impose a border. The third thing, theres Something Like 60 odd older labour constituencies that went to the tories. Darby, dudley, places in the old labour heartland. The question relates to the point that we were making about the United States. What is boris going to do to deliver to those places and keep them behind him . The trouble really starts now. You can deliver a brexit decision in january, but then your trouble really starts because you havent negotiated anything. You have a long transition period. The worry is the data really doesnt look that good. Very bad retail Sales Numbers this morning. The bank of england decision, where two members are voting for cuts, and we may well see cuts coming in the next few meetings. But this is an election that he won, but boy, does trouble start now. Vonnie theres talk of obviously getting out of the eu. That is a foregone conclusion. But overhauling the immigration system, working on the nhs, but even a controversial plan to scrap the law about general elections. What concerns you about what is being laid out . Is well, the question first, obviously, it appears that he has a mandate for change , and being able to scrap the act which means the Prime Minister now, instead of being stuck having to go for five years, can call things when they want. In a way, it sort of looks like you put bits of the jigsaw puzzle in, and part of it is that as commentators and watchers, we dont really know which boris is going to show up. Is boris going to be pushed to the right, or is he going to be a sort of one nation, support people, build the nhs . Which way is he going to go given that majority . I think people are unclear about that. They are unclear on the fiscal front what hes going to do. Vonnie thanks for joining us today from naples. Nis danny branchflower that is danny branchflower of dartmouth and formally the boe. We will get to Prime MinisterBoris Johnson now speaking in part meant. Pm johnson they want to move politics on and move the country on. Building hospitals, modernizing our infrastructure, making our streets safer, our environment cleaner, our union stronger. And this queens speech of this peoples government sets in motion a vast, interlocking program to unite and level up across the whole United Kingdom and unleash the potential of all of our people. This one nation government will enshrine in law record funding for our in hs, take back control of our borders with a whole new immigration system, longers sentences for the most dangerous, and protect our environment with a bill so ambitious and so vast that there is no environmentally friendly way of printing it off. And mr. Speaker, it is not a program for one year or one parliament. It is a blueprint for the future of britain. Just imagine where this country could be in 10 years. Trade deals across the world, creating jobs across the u. K. 14 new hospitals, Great Schools in every community, and the biggest transformation of our infrastructure since the victorian age, this time using new gene therapies to cure the hitter to incurable the hitherto incurable, and leading us into a dawn of electric vehicles. It or impossible to say i do not think it vainglorious or impossible to say that i knew golden age for United Kingdom awaits, in spite of the negativity that you will hear from the other side. We will work to deliver it. Majestiesr, her were expertlyh proposed by a beacon of our one. Ation conservatism remember who is not only a football coach of great distinction, who had done much to champion the female game, which will be a key part of this countrys bid for the 2020 world cup, but he is so personally skilled at the game, with what has been described as a take no prisoners style. That according to the daily to have a graph to the daily telegraph, she was once barred from playing against a man to protect their egos. [laughter] even used as a goal man, mr. Speaker, and what was probably one of the less of theg innovations previous [laughter] friendson my honorable has also done pioneering work improving Dementia Care and curbing the harms inflicted by gambling and alcohol, and so dedicated to her job, she has regularly brought her son into the chambers, reducing the voting age to about six months. Her speech was in the very finest traditions of this house. She has followed the great style of my honorable friend, when he addressed this house for the first time in 2017. He said, and i quote, the good people have had to wait 41 years to hear a maiden speech from their own mp. You can imagine how disappointed they will be. He was being characteristically modest, but i cannot help saying how they have taken drastic steps to avoid another maiden speech. [laughter] mr. Speaker, as the honorable member has pointed out, you wait years for a queens speech, and then along come two in short order, something my friend will on the conservative benches. Was elected as a [indiscernible] as a bluecollar conservative from a traditionally labour seat, a path that many have just followed. Since then, and you pointed out quite rightly, he funded a new his local hospital and a new railroad station for workers. I know he comes from a labour family. When he first took their tins of a conservative, he felt like the black sheep of the family. All i can say is i bet if they are watching today, they will feel nothing but pride in my honorable friend. Let me also welcome to his place the right honorable gentlemen, the leader of the opposition, a , fromer, as well know watching the queens speech at the right time. [laughter] pm johnson so i dont know what he has against coronation, mr. Speaker. As our exchanges across these dispatch boxes come toward a close, alas [laughter] itjohnson let me say that is always been excellent, and as for our disagreements, i have never doubted that the right honorable gentlemans beliefs are deeply held, and his sincerity is to be admired. Certain members of his shadow cabinet, on the other hand, are absolutely clear. They have forfeited the confidence of the opposition, and the time has come for labour to take the only possible step. Dissolve the electorate and replace it with a new one. [laughter] pm johnson for my own part, mr. Speaker, i feel a sense of obligation to the electorate that i am humbled to serve. To those people who lent us their votes, however hesitantly, this government will now engage flat out on a program of change for the better. Tomorrow is the day vonnie u. K. Prime minister Boris Johnson speaking to parliament. That was mainly the preamble. He will be getting into some of the nuts and bolts of the queens speech and what it means for coveting for the next 10 years in the next few minutes. We will continue to monitor Boris Johnson speaking, and bring you any headlines. We want to point out that sterling is weaker today at 1. 3023 right now. Lets get to first word news. Heres ritika gupta. Ritika President Trump renewed allegations that democrats are engaged in president ial harassment. The president wrote that the donothing party once to do the donothing party wants to do nothing with the articles. That step would trigger the start of a trial and start work on other matters. One of President Trumps staunchest allies in the house seek reelection. North Carolina Republican congressman mark meadows may even leave congress before his current term expires. Forows told politicos work the Trump Administration is only beginning. Meadows has been one of his closest advisors in congress. American farmers are seeing the results of that partial trade deal with china. Bloomberg has learned that china has returned to the u. S. Market to buy soybeans. American exporters have sold at least five cargoes to chinese buyers since monday. Beijing issued waivers that let farmers purchase soybeans without telling tori tariffs. Defied the ban could express the ban to express anger in india. Global news 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. Im ritika gupta. This is bloomberg. Vonnie thank you. Buckle and subsequent softbank bailout shucked the Venture Capital industry this year. What will be the hangover in 2020 . Lets bring in sonali basak, and a key voice in the vc space. Sonali ben, thank you so much for joining us. You said before that you think wework is a trigger event in terms of capital moving forward. Does that mean for next year . What were the Lessons Learned in the fundraising mishaps . Ben i think wework is both an anomaly and a trigger. I took the Company Public when i was young, and my underwriters were extremely strict on anything they believe could be a signal. Then i looked at wework and said , how could any of these things have happened . They are allowed because often times, the most exciting startups are able to offer aggressive terms for their founders on the board. This has always caused consternation for investors. At the same time, you sometimes have to compromise. I think wework is the proof that when you dont Pay Attention to the details, when you dont have appropriate governance, and when you let a founder go too far, i think you will see a renewed focus on that. It is already part of the conversation, making sure things are done right. Sonali there was a great story in the wall street journal on how the banks and vcs enabled wework to become this monster in the first place. How would you describe Silicon Valleys relationship to wall street these days . Ben ben its always been relatively healthy. , investors are investing in businesses we believe can become successful companys. It wont happen if we dont have Great Companies. This year there were something in the area of 17 venture backed startups. If you invest in all of them, including the ones that did poorly, you are still up Something Like triple digits. Venture is a very picky category. I will see more than 1000 companies a year and invest in one. Mi right all the time . Absolutely not. But we are a supply of highquality product in wall street, and in fairness, bankers generally push back aggressively if they dont agree. Vonnie i think it is fair to say that it was a fairly open secret that something was a bit off about the wework financials. Bondholders were few and far between. People were not that interested in the bonds. But we also know it only takes one or two things to create confidence, which can spiral. Is that happening, or has that been confined to wework . Ben i definitely think the issues of wework are around wework. This is not a systematic or endemic problem. As you point out, plenty of people had plenty of issues with wework. I have friends who just, for years, would say this is prop tech. This is an tech. There were a lot of questions and issues. Some people say, is this the first shoe . Are there many more to drop . Vonnie i suppose i dont mean that companies are not truthful or whatever, and this is a special example, but companies that arent showing revenue, that arent performing early on. Is there less appetite to give them runway now . Ben that is a fair point. I would have said that with Public Market demand, and if you look at success, there was a point in time when 50 of the ipos in tech were over 50 . If you look at all of the companies this year, they shared two things. Margin very high and growth very high. Today you have to add a third, path to profitability. If you have highgrowth, highmargin businesses, it is relatively hard not to have a structure where you can take profitability. It is one thing to lose money in the service of making a great deal of money later. It is another thing to lose money forever. When youve got a low margin business and that is never going to change, that is tough. Vonnie the question on softbank , how has it changed the mathematics . You cant go up against softbank unless you are a massive vc fund. Ben we are fortunate to be a large vc fund. Having said that come up we dont really go up against softbank. They are not currently in a proactive investing stance, as far as i can tell. There are some really smart people there, but we are very early stage investors. My belief is that stuff bank is a private that softbank is a private equity shop. They are deploying into our companies, and some cases, later stage. We prefer to come in on formation or series a. It could be the first 100 million of revenue. Sonali what does life look like after softbank . It is not like there is not a rush of capital flowing into Silicon Valley these days. How does that change things . Do you think venture will become prized a little will be compromised a little moving forward . Ben you start off with the large mutual funds. Rowe. T. They came in with a last round before the ipo, get access, and then buy more on the ipo. That is when things started to evolve. Theres more money in Silicon Valley. Greatare not any more companies, so therefore the prices go up. That said, the Great Companies are becoming even greater and bigger. When i was in the top Public Markets, they were names like ge and exxon. Now they are big tech, and youve got two passed 1 trillion. If they are not profitable, they are against the model that every banker think you need to take this direct listing model. Ben i love the idea of a direct listing. It is obviously easiest when you have a lot of cash and have a brand people can understand. Interesting and creative models to help companies that are not as cash rich to a direct listing. Obviously, you can take on more of your own destiny. It is a pretty cool model, and i think it can work quite well, but go back to margin, growth, path to profitability. If you dont have a pastor profitability and do a direct listing, the market is very effective from a very efficient, and very smart. Keep get punished when they should get punished, and people prosper when they should prosper. Vonnie give us the lowdown, what is the hot space . Is it all ai now . What is the valley talking about . Who wants to be in at the bottom level where . Ben ai continues to be exceptionally hot. Literally every entrepreneur tells us we have ai in our product. Good to know. Move on. Theres robotics that continues to evolve. That is both physical and software robotics. We have company that is very valuable, and what they do is create software so you can have robot workers doing things you dont want to do. You know, the routine tasks. Youre seeing things in industrial tech that is getting pretty exciting. One of the most fascinating things to me is where you see huge Legacy Industries that are only just now attacking technology and using it as an advantage. Construction is an example. Vonnie you will have to come back for a longer conversation. Thank you for joining us. Venture partner ben narasin, and bloombergs sonali basak. This is bloomberg. Vonnie live from new york, im vonnie quinn. This is bloomberg markets. That breaking banner because we just seen the twostens spread widened to more than 30 basis points, as we were talking about a little earlier on. Big move today for the twostens spread. Still at just under 30. 5 basis points. Is memoryof the hour chipmaker micron. The Earnings Report producing new gains. Taylor riggs here to explain what it all means. Taylor analysts saying we have finally seen a bottoming out on memory chip prices. A 35 decline yearoveryear for sales, but each of the four business categories have been seeing sales rise on a quarterly basis, so that is good news. What that means for the stock, up now 70 your to date, outside the fundamentals you are getting positive comments on trade, and finally being able to apply for the licenses to be able to get around the band we have on ban we have on huawei. I want to take a look at a chart inside my terminal. As we have been talking about reliant on prices, we are finally seeing spot prices pick up a little bit, but that means it is pushing shares higher. Analysts are really questioning the valuation now if this company. Vonnie and all of the comments and other comments about huawei and applying for licenses . Taylor we did get new comments from the ceo because huawei is one of the top clients, about 12 of their revenue. They were able to come out and say they had received all of the approvals for the licenses that they had requested. They got some new products for Huawei Mobile and the servers. The ceo did say it will take a few quarters before all of the qualifications are complete, but certainly good news as it brings in more revenue, being able to actually sell to huawei. Vonnie thank you. That is taylor riggs in san francisco. A new cycle high in november, according to bloomberg intelligence, setting up for more trouble next year. Bloombergs Catherine Doherty joins me for more. Why would it put a dent in bonuses . More supply is usually a good thing. Why is it a bad sign here . Reporter we are talking about specific situations that were surprises overnight. These are not companies that people were expecting to have distress or quite the downfall that they did see, but then again, overnight, when the surprises do come, that is when the impact does hit. Vonnie it wasnt specific to one industry, but where their commonalities at all . \ reporter this is across industries. We saw distress in industry, telecom, retails, communications. However, with the commonality between a lot of these companies , these are levered Capital Structures with billions of dollars of debt. A lot of times, you have investors sitting in these Capital Structures. Theyve invested in these companies, and they feel comfortable even though there are risks, so what we are starting to see is that there are cracks. Appear cracks start to when there are bad earnings, you start to see bond loans tumble. Vonnie in some ways, i want to ask why we are not seeing more bankruptcies. The energy path has been in trouble for a long time. Retail has been in trouble for years. What is preventing these companies from falling off a cliff, and what is preventing the ratings agencies from a rating step . A ratings dip . Katherine a number of factors. The documents lenders are signing onto her much looser. For the companies, they are able to push out maturities. They are able to layer on more debt so they can avoid defaulting or having to file for bankruptcy. You are seeing met with the documents. You are seeing negotiations have an earlier, where companies are going to their bondholders. You are also seeing bondholders, lenders groups form. They are saying, we understand you have debt coming due coming up, and it is going to be a problem for you. We are going to try to amend that. Vonnie we saw a couple go into bankruptcy protection this year. What should we expect to retailers for 2020 . Katherine i expect we will probably see more distress in retail, with the amazon effect, with less customers shopping in brick and mortar stores. What is interesting is you are also seeing retailers have to communicate to their customers, we are still here. You can come to our stores, or you can shop online. Even the trends online are changing, how people are spending, when they are spending. Think the holiday is going to be a very important time to look to see how certain shops do better than others, and how people, are they still going to stores that may have further discounts . Are they shopping at luxury retailers like barneys, especially during a Liquidation Sale . The holidays are a really good period to see how the u. S. Economy and the broader economy is changing with regards to shopping at these retailers. Vonnie two Great Stories out on the bloomberg today, about distressed credit and about retailers. Still ahead, we are live at the cme for futures in focus. This is bloomberg. Vonnie live from new york, im vonnie quinn. Is bloomberg markets. Bob iaccinono joins us from the cme. Bob obviously, the opec Production Cut that they added comedy 500,000 barrels, didnt really do much to the market. Moved it about . 60 by my count within days after that, but since then, since the low we reached on november 29, we are up about 10. 1 . Its progression of things following, that opec extension and addition to the rate cut, number one obviously being the phase one agreement. Number two, the potential passage of the usmca. U. S. Inventories are about 447 million barrels, a bit below that. That puts us for percent above the fiveyear average for inventories at this time of year. Above thesimilarly fiveyear average. So there are stockpiles. But the key thing to this drive we have seen, if today ends higher, is that youve got drilling in uncompleted wells that fell in november. It does pick up, there may not be these pickets that shale producers can turn on to take advantage of that increased demand. Vonnie what will you be looking at in the new year to tell us the direction of oil . Bob i want to see if there is any change in the iea forecast. They predicted a drop in demand of about 800,000 barrels in 2020. I think they were predicting that prior to these two minor trade deals. Usmca is not signed, and phase one we havent even seen yet. I want to see if they revise that because of that is the case , demand on the ground may not be what people think it is as they drive prices to 61. We are still only at the highend of the range. We havent broken through. We have been in it since midmay. I want to see if that demand drop he realizes, and if so, we can break out of that range. Vonnie thank you for joining us today and giving us your thoughts for the year. Of pathino at the cme trading partners. Coming up, we are counting down to the european close. Joining us in the next hour, wells fargo Wealth Management fund cio darrell cronk. We are seeing the s p grind higher. The nasdaq up 0. 75 . The vix Holding Steady around 12. 5. In europe, a bit of a mixed bag, although the u. K. Is making gains today. This is bloomberg. Vonnie President Trump becomes the third president to be impeached. The country is still divided. The bank of England Holding rates steady. It will focus on the next stage of brexit negotiation. The world has negative rates. The first among its peers to do so. Live from new york, i am vonnie quinn. There counting down to european close on bloomberg markets. Lets have a look. Checking u. S. Markets. We are up 2 10 of a percent on the s p 500 index. Will we see 32 before the end of the session . 193 on the 10 year yield. We are above 30 basis points or not. The british pound seeing a weakness. It is down