But now on day 37 or day 39 as a preview of what it could mean if the streak is broken in the future, take a look at the very long streak in the summer going all the way to the beginning of october, huge volatility and an earlier this year, we see there was a 36 day streak less than 1 also followed by big moves. The small moves for the s p 500, it may suggest we see more volatility and if that happens, it will be interesting to see when that is. Did see a risk rally today in markets, but not in precious metals. We saw commodities future falling and this is one of those up the job states as well as some progress happening within the u. S. China trade talks rally. And a look at the action you can find that it was virtually low for most of the year but your today to date, gold is up more than 13 . This trade is boosting other markets today, actually having gold kept in a range. Trade uncertainty helped gold earlier this year and throughout the year and as more trade sessions continue, it will be the commodity to watch most certainly stop certainly. On taking a look at a classic portfolio. This is one of my favorite charts. We talk about doing different and you are still coming out ahead. Time to take a look at a chart and as you can see 2019, we having its so this best year going back to decades , seems to bease one of the winning strategies. Thank you. Us, sarah pons i sarah. You still see gains for 2020. Where do you want to be . What qualifies as growth or would you want to maintain exposure to the more defensive parts of the market . They did not move as high as stock prices. Been in this nice rally the last two months and we think it will accelerate into the spring and we are not rolling over. We actually think the is puttingng sector in a bottom and we will start to see some of celebration through next year. At this point, i think value stocks, which have underperformed look attractive and weve had a big play on small caps. I think small caps are finally starting to work. They have been underperforming the last month or two and starting to come back to life. Those two areas, we think will work. Curious, we just look at ,he chart that taylor showed having such a phenomenal year. What are people thinking about bonds going into the next year and our people saying we should are treasuries when they using [indiscernible] yielding [indiscernible] believe we will be range bound because when you start getting closer to 2 , you will have investors who will likely not go much higher. You will see demand at that point in time and you have to remember that if you look at relative tories are bonds across the globe, you still have a very large divergent, so you will still get global and overseas money flowing into u. S. Treasurys so there is a cap to the upside it seems. Going to the backside, we are not going to be looking at a jobs number that puts up what we saw today. We heard larry kudlow earlier king about how both sides how much stock are you putting particularly on a date with the job support like this . Important. Trade is it productivehad step. Productive up. Next key date is coming see something happen one way or the other over the next nine days or so and we think there will be a skinny phase one deal and by that i mean changing tariffs for pork, soy, corn. Think we can get something positive here in the near term. Lex is there anything that is disappointing for investors or the fact they announce something will be good enough question mark lets calm the rhetoric, try to work towards a resolution whereas continuing to make the situation worse, so anything positive is going to [indiscernible] next week will be so much fun between the tariff deadline, u. K. Election, probably some other stuff im not thinking about. How much are people thinking about volatility and the crazy headlines . I think for all of us, that is the description of fun. A friday. M. On that is her description of fun that is a description of fun . Your description of the past couple months have been quiet. What is going to spark that . And i think what people are paying attention to is the trade deadline and if those tariffs actually go into effect and there is a deal where they push them back, that could be a problem. Handys assume we come in tariffs are gone. Do we still get santa claus rally at your end . For 3500 calling market by the end of next year, so if it looks like we have some structural base with china, remember, if we can eliminate tariffs and get trade going, confidence rises, productivity growth starts to go up, we are 2. 4 [indiscernible] the gap between the two of them is the difference of opinion on china, so if we can suddenly start to take a more constructive view on china, i think you start to see corporate Earnings Growth moving higher. Great stuff. That does it for the closing bell. Whatd you miss is up next. This is bloomberg. [no audio] swept expectations for the biggest gains since january and with less than a week before voters in the u. K. Head to the polls, traders have their bets on a conservative when, sending the pound on a high. Fighting the holiday blues after a flop. 1 the the u. S. Labor market payroll growing by 266,000, reaching its highest level since january. For more, director and senior economist at Wells Fargo Securities and she joins us from charlotte, north carolina. Inc. You for joining us. People look at these past job creation numbers and say maybe the fed should hike again. Could you at least argued that it shows we still have a lot of room left in this economy or at least more than economists expected to keep adding people into the workforce . Think it shows that the u. S. Economy is much more resilient to some of the headwinds, particularly surrounding trade that we have seen and continued to get these numbers. We know there is a lot of volatility and given the revisions that we have seen the past couple months, that shows that the trend is higher and it suggests we have seen more people coming back into the workforce. Maybe not this month, but that has been trending higher. Blockbusterth not as you would expect. When, if at all do we see more Wage Inflation . I think one of the issues we see with wages rising, productivity still is subdued. That kept a cap on how much the nominal wages have been rising. I think the trend is still higher than we can climb further into the 3 range than we are right now. We did get a board revision suggesting that the trend is stronger, but as we continue to see the labor market tighten, employers will have to pay out more and we should see that resume in the coming months. We talk about how this gives us a tailwind heading into the couple months. , but we also know in the past there tends to be a muted effect, a seasonal thing. Yearthat be a factor this for this coming year do you believe . I think where we see that seasonal weakness tends to show up in Consumer Spending. Weve hadobs numbers and he wakes numbers above 3 in terms of average earnings, closer to 5 if you look at aggregate wages, it suggests consumers are still in a strong position. It does suggest some caution if we do start to see some weakness. Is this legitimate easing or seasonal issues that tend to prop up each year . I think we will see Consumer Spending remain pretty strong. Lets talk about manufacturing for second. 54,000 manufacturing jobs were acted, added. Nonetheless, it appears the sector is growing amid ongoing difficulties to measuring this. The pmi number doing ok. Is manufacturing in a recession or is that story overstated . I think we are seeing some bottoming out. Today, a lot of that came from the nondurables side, but not exactly areas impacted by tariffs and intermediate input rising and we have seen Industrial Production if you net out some of those effects and we had a great number in terms of capital goods to start october, so there does seem to be some benefactor and right now. Not exactly a strong trend, but at least what we saw the past few months. What is the relationship with how the economy performs and the rest of the world. Were starting to get the sense that the rest of the world is china seems to be pointing in the right direction. It is a is it a zero sum game . It is not by any means. If anything, there is a positive correlation and it also correlates with trade flow as well in terms of demand for input from Different Countries given how diversity supply chains are. To some extent, the u. S. Is still very insular compared to other regions, given that exports only account for 12 of gdp and still very much reliant on the u. S. To message economy it is certainly a positive for the u. S. Manufacturing sector stop sector. The white house striking an optimistic tone. Larry kudlow praising President Trumps work message late, but [inaudible] october 11, the president said we have come to a deal and it will probably take three or four weeks. That was eight weeks ago. What has been agreed . The president is up to speed on everything. Now, some of the most delicate been evaluated and it will be presented to President Trump and he will take a look. In london and when he got back, he thinks moving ahead very nicely, they are very constructive, but not ready to sign and has not seen everything he wants to see. Was there ever any agreement that involved 42 50 billion of u. S. Agriculture products . Guess, im not going to be specific about these details. They are on the table. I think your narrative is basically correct. I cannot say yes and i cannot say no. These are part of the final strokes. Not only agriculture spending, but also opening up the act market. Byif there is no deal december 15, what actually happens . What is the next step . I would not want to speculate on that. There are no arbitrary deadlines and we will wait and see. These are decisions that will be made by President Trump depending on how the talks go between now and then and whether we have buttondown all buttons and whether it is a satisfactory agreement that is great for america. That was the National EconomicCouncil Director larry kudlow. Coming up, the u. K. Decides tony blair is jumping into jumping into the campaign with voters. We are going to talk about that next. This is bloomberg. In less than a week, u. K. Boulders voters will head to the polls. Our next guest says marginal decisions by voters with little extremeld have consequences. Author ofned by the that. They are having a debate as we speak. Thank you for being here. [inaudible] close to inconceivable at this point that Jeremy Corbyn gets an overall majority. , thely speaking for boris, 70 johnson. If you are an undecided voter and looking at the last three years of drama in british politics, is the bet that the conservatives are making and are making,markets in the end they will break conservative probably the is right that to make the right bet to make. Theuld agree with bookmakers that boris pulls this off. He gets the majority, gets brexit done. That is not quite accurate, is it . Outrageously disingenuous and the most difficult part of this, the part that really makes a difference is whether they can then work out a new arrangement with the eu. The eu accounts were slightly under 50 of all british exports. The most important trading partners. It is right up there with how canada feels about the u. S. Be difficult and if that does not happen, we terms or the same whoever. This is still a very serious risk based in the investors, has brexit actually been the big topic . How much has the Actual Campaign on the ground about the Biggest Issue in the u. K. . My best understanding it has been about brexit. Certainly, the labour party to change the subject, it is issuesg on a platform of which are very popular at the moment. They do want to change the , but it still always seems to come up on doorsteps and it matters to people. Matters. You will go blind trying to follow it, but it enumerates the different possibilities. Coming up, a busy time of for retailers. This is bloomberg. Mark im Mark Crumpton with bloombergs first word news. Officials say the gunman who opened fire at a Florida Naval station this morning, killing three people and wounding seven others, was an aviation officer in the saudi air force. The gunman was killed by a sheriffs deputy. The fbi and other authorities are investigating the incident to determine if it was terrorism related. Walking through the crime scene was like being on the set of a movie, and as the mayor eloquently put, you do not expect this to happen at home. This does not happen in this county, in pensacola. It does not happen to our friends and neighbors who are members of the United States navy. Mark President Trump tweeted that king salman of saudi arabia called to express his condolences to the families of those killed. Boris johnson is apparently heading for a clear victory in next weeks u. K. General election. That is according to senior officials of both his ruling conservatives and the main opposition labour party. Bloomberg has learned that his Campaign Promise to get brexit done his winning ground in the labor heartland in northern england. Johnson triggered the december 12 snap election after months of deadlock over brexit policy in parliament, where his tory party did not have the majority. It was a dire warning from the u. N. Climate chief. She told reporters at the summit in madrid that science must be the common language when dealing with the issue. What the science is telling us is very, very clear. We are facing a climate emergency. And we are approaching a series of tipping points. We must act urgently. Mark madrid is hosting the two week United Nations sponsored talks aimed at streamlining the rules on Global Markets and agreeing help poor countries should be compensated for destruction largely caused by emissions from rich nations. Flu season has hit the United States. Its earliest start in more than 15 years. The last season to wrap up this early was 2003, 2004, and it was a particularly bad one. The early start may mean a lot of suffering is in store, but others say it is early to tell. Doctors saying they began seeing large numbers of flulike illnesses in october. Global news, 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. Im Mark Crumpton. This is bloomberg. Romaine for years, consumers have been trained to sit in the comfort of their own homes and shop online. Yet when the holidays come around, the biggest apartment stores are using window unveilings as a last ditch attempt against ecommerce. Joining us with more on this story is our guest. All these stores are coming out with big window displays across the street displays. Across the street from bloomberg is booming dales. Not inside the window. They built a stage on the sidewalk in manhattan. They shut down the whole street. Hundreds of people go to the street and listen to john legend sing songs. Behind him, the curtain went up and there were the windows. There was a spaceman and robot arms and things like that. Joe did this turn into sales . John legend leaves and people go to buy stuff . They did. It is a long Holiday Season kind of marketing campaign. The National Campaigns as well, just create hype for the store. It serves a practical story of getting people off the street and through the front door. Scarlet ok. But then it becomes a race where everyone is doing the same thing over and over again and a lot of height. Can they keep this up through christmas . This is a really Old School Advertising tactic that goes back to macys the 1800s and other Department Stores battling for physical foot traffic. Obviously, there was no online sales bakhtin. They would try to one back then. They would try to one up each other. Romaine is this a new york thing . In new york, people walk around and see windows. If i go to another city, do you see the same type of window display . No. You see massive investments in this particular field here. They spend the entire year. They have a whole team that works on this permit 85 of their window budget for the whole year goes to just the holiday windows. Scarlet 2019 windows, a tradition of high fantasy. A tradition ofetsy. Romaine do they have robots in their windows . They do not. They have a pinball machine. Scarlet all right. Macys has santa claus. Romaine there you go. Scarlet traditional. Romaine santa claus citing. Scarlet thank you so much. A very colorful story in the bloomberg about Department Stores are getting a little desperate here. Sticking with retail, there have been a number of retail vacancies drawing concerns of loan default. Managingwe welcome the partner of a company that focuses on purchases and sale of commercial. Good to see you. Think you so much. Thank you so much. Thank you. Romaine we got it right. Scarlet thank you. It is friday. I apologize. The Department Stores are clearly in a desperate mode try to do what they can to get foot traffic. We know a lot of activist investors are urging them to selloff or basically turn into realistic companies as well. How long can this go on for, this situation where they are paying huge amounts of money to make sure they spend money to try to get them to come in to spend money in their stores . We are seeing it now with prime examples of stores in new york city. A great example is barneys. I always say that will be a great case study because they have 10 floors on prime space on 60th and madison. How will they subdivide that . Are they subdividing it . To answer your question, how much money can they spend hoping to get foot traffic in the door . I dont think they can spend that much in terms of getting foot traffic for the single tenant of a space that size. Romaine when we look at the real estate landscape here, there are some physical areas that do well i guess if you have the rent right. One of the reasons you see so many vacancies is the retailer saying we cannot afford it. Why arent you seeing prices come down more to match the demand . The issue as it is not necessarily in the landlords discretion to make the decision. Oftentimes, landlords have debt on the property. Any commercial loans secured by real estate will likely stipulate a floor in terms of the rent. If im a bank and i lend you money to property, i want to secure a certain amount of cash flow to cover the debt service, debt to income, and the value ratio. Joe are there situations where landlords find it more economical to not have any tenant for a while, holding up the hope that they will land the big one . Maybe it is a bank. Whatever. Just because to take something now would be to go in violation of their borrowing. Pierre there are many factors. If you take a major landlord that owns multiple buildings throughout the city, if they established low pricing on one, that will affect others. Viewing it in terms of a risk analysis, in terms of what is the portfolio they are going to, if it was a landlord with one space, that analysis would be different. Scarlet what about popup shops and how that is changing the economics . Pierre landlords will be have to be more comfortable with it. In any commercial lease, there are 10 to 15 year terms. Landlords and banks rely on cash flow to operate their businesses. Popup stores come in. You take halloween, for instance. There are always these mask and costume stores for 30 days. How much can you rely upon that . Can they become comfortable with the inconsistency of that . Romaine im curious of the popup shops. I was reading today that Gordon Taylor is actually opening up a popup shop in Lower Manhattan somewhere. What is the incentive for some of these retailers to even set up a Permanent Location if you can just do a popup shop a few months out of a year, get enough awareness, drive people to your website to continue . Pierre i think the question will be, when do landlords become more comfortable with that concept . In terms of now, not many landlords are permitted. Like Gordon Taylor, i dont know how many square feet that is. That has been vacant for two or three years now. No cash flow is better than cash flow from their perspective. They dont have much of a choice, where other landlords will. Joe great stuff. Really appreciate your perspective. Up, we hear from the Saudi Arabia Energy mr. On aramcos ipo and why you believe thats why he believes wall street doesnt understand. This is bloomberg. Scarlet saudi arabia is predicting that aramco will soon surge past the elusive 2 trillion valuation. Bloomberg spoke to the Saudi Arabia Energy minister to discuss if mohammad bin salman is proud of it. He is a proud person. He made us all also proud because he took upon him good decisions. These decisions, you have seen it now. Timesught us a 4. 6 oversubscription. And we he will be will be all proud when this company trades. Months, andnext few you see his calculations of what would be there, unlike the evaluators. It is already going to be sold for 1. 7. But i would be more than assured to believe it will be much higher. Street, money managers, they do this every day. They are not stupid. Why dont you think International Wall street, global wall street what did they not get about aramco . It is a difference being somewhere in the city in london and being down and seeing a culture of 60 years, a company , and60 years of endowment a relationship between a government and a company that. Nables it to build its image and the endowment it has in how can so many compare aramco with the years of openhanded ability to exploit oil withon barrels of how many cubic feet of gas, with by the way a good chunk of shale gas that we will be surprised we will be producing it years from now. This is a happily well endowed company with preserves, with a long concession agreement, with talent, human resources, welldeveloped, the ability to attract every person that can help, good training programs, good investment portfolio internationally, more aspiration and clarity of what this company will do in the future, very well diversified portfolio. That portfolio will be enhanced and more diversified. But it did not attract the foreign capital. Did you think wall street made a mistake . Capital haveoreign come into this ipo. I would have to also stressed that there is something maybe not a lot of people are aware. Even those in saudi arabia that have subscribed and were allowed to subscribe, there are at least 1500 qualified Foreign Investors funds. ,here is a lot of endowment mutual funds that have participated. There are also other funds that have participated. The portfolio of those who elected to come and subscribe is quite a diverse portfolio. The only thing they did not do was the road showing. Because we felt we had sufficient and i think that proves our calculus was right. Joe that was the Saudi Arabia Energy minister speaking to bloomberg in vienna. Romaine who wins when Companies Buy their own shares . What i commend is it is the companys executives that end up coming out on top. Someone with their story in the latest edition of Bloomberg Businessweek. Last year, s p 500 companies bought back a record 806 billion worth of shares. That is 55 more than the year before. This year, they are on track to buy 740 billion worth, the secondmost ever. One commissioner, robert jackson, espoused 385 recent buybacks and found shares rose 2. 5 more after the buyback than otherwise would have been expected. They also found twice as Many Companies have executives selling the eight days after buyback announcement as they do on an ordinary day when the value of those executive sales is more than five times higher. When a company buys back shares, signaling confidence in its future when its executives sell shares after sending that message, it seems to sum like a legal version of illegal pump and dump stock manipulation. Jackson wants to rewrite the rules permit he wants to bar insider sales for a certain length of time after buyback is announced. Agreed,chairman has not although he says he is happy to continue the conversation. That was Bloomberg Businessweek economics editor. Now a note upper member ands. Person willonetary serve on the fomc has died. He left the richmond fed in 2005. Nominated for the fed board vacancy in 2017, he had a hearing before the Senate Banking committee but did not progress. The nomination left at 2018. He was 69. Joining us to reflect on his contributions to economics is bloomberg surveillance host tom. View, what is the legacy . Tom this is the conservative end of economics. Over therly the shadow committee. 1960s, they and worry about inflation was there. There was an intellectual architecture that said this is how we stop inflation. He was a young wonder child the Academic Movement out of phd, hey college, brown immediately got a claim at the richmond fed, where he ended up casting a character. Romaine sort of his intellectual state that he made on this issue to a certain extent might have cost him a job. Tom absolutely. No question about it. Senator warren was one of the disturbing arch critics of what was proved to be inflationistas. They stumbled after the hearing of the fed over where was inflation. That has been a source of his research in recent years. Scarlet is that why his nomination just kind of lapsed and did not result in the next step . Tom i think so. There will be speculation. The family has said he was quite ill. You wonder how that played into it in all. The huge issue here, which you have all covered every day from the beginning of the crisis, is there is going to be inflation. He was the intellectual underpinning of so many that were less graceful. Joe you mentioned this sort of school of thinkers, many of whom were foreign, intellectually in the 1970s with that inflation. If you look at the long sweep of history, is this just sort of an inevitable ebb and flow where there will be a group of people who came up postcrisis who will never worry about inflation . Tom conservative and liberal. Let me suggest goodfriend is more conservative. Gram the a venn diagram has a lot of overlap. One quick thing. Professor goodfriend wrote this profound paper on negative interest rates. The last time i spoke to him, i said i dont agree with all your papers. There was a raging debate. The monday after jackson hole, we had four or five people call up, demanding to be on the program to go after it. Scarlet who is someone to carry the torch . Tom that is an interesting question. I think the conservatives are in a quiet, not retreat, but subdued with the lowinflation we have. You know the moment comes up moment inflation comes up, so many of the chicago fed has really turned on this where he was worried and now is saying lets bring up inflation. That is something professor goodfriend would have been on. Romaine we still have two vacancies on the fed. Do we end up with somebody like goodfriend. Tom that is not appropriate for friday. This is really important. To a person, everyone would say Marvin Goodfriend was the best nominee the president has come up with academically, the construction of monetary theory, with great respect. Scarlet bloomberg surveillance anchor tom keene, thank you so much. Thank you for coming and when you are supposed to be asleep. Tom i already had a nap. Scarlet going to get on the jet a little later. Thank you so much. We have a lot coming up next week. It is going to be a fun week. On wednesday, the fed announces its rate decision. Joe the next day, the u. K. General election on thursday. Romaine and then saudi aramco begins trading. That is all for whatd you miss . Scarlet have a great weekend. Here, it all starts with a simple. Hello hi how can i help . A data plan for everyone. Everyone . Everyone. Lets send to everyone wifi up there . Uhh. Sure, why not . Howd he get out . a camera might figure it out. That was easy glad i could help. At xfinity, were here to make life simple. Easy. Awesome. So come ask, shop, discover at your local xfinity store today