Dubai to london. In hongg, and the kong, a Record Number of candidates cast their ballots. Bloomberg spoke to the said Party Founding leader to get her take away from the election. Now the ball is in the governments court, and really have to respond to the five demands with an independent inquiry into recent events. Theres also the demand of universal suffrage. The government at least has to say that they are listening. Alix for more, bloombergs yvonne man. Joins us now. How does this affect what is happening on the streets . Yvonne all eyes will be on chief executive carrie lam as she speaks Tuesday Morning to reporters here in hong kong. She has delivered a lot of these press conferences before under increasing pressure. Before, that pressure has translated into a democratic exercise. 2. 9 Million People showed up to cast their ballots, a record turnout of 71 . It was a landslide victory for the prodemocracy camp. These district elections are pretty low level. These counselors dont have a whole lot of political power. But this election this time around was seen as a defective referendum on the governments handling of this political crisis thats gone on for nearly six months. The key question you just heard, will she actually concede and meet some of the five demands the protesters have been abandoned . The ball have been demanding . The ball is officially in her court. What happens, any efforts to create chaos and disrupt stability and prosperity in hong kong will not succeed, shes said. Alix we turn now to trade. China is raising penalties on intellectual property violations as it tries to address one of the key Sticking Points in trade talks with the u. S. Putting me on the phone from hong kong is enda curran. What are the details of what we know about this ip theft penalty . Specifics arethe that china wants to make it easier for victims of ip theft to get compensation, and they also want to look into bringing up the threshold for criminal punishments. On the surface, this kind of measure goes to the core of some of the u. S. Demands in the trade negotiations. Beyond the merchandise goods, the u. S. Has been pushing concerns over ip protection for its Companies Operating in china. On the terms, this fits the emerging meredith the emerging narrative that we remain on track for a trade negotiation. That xiadly, we know jinping spoke of the need for cutting a deal based on equality with the u. S. President trump pushed back against that terminology. Negotiators from both countries have been talking to each other, but we dont have details about when or where an agreement might be signed. The ip move by china is clearly a sign that talks remain on track, but we are still unsure about the details. Alix thank you very much. We go now to the middle east, where turkey is beginning to aa rated hex system radar detection system, a move that risks touching u. S. Sanctions. What is the surprise from overnight . Can you talk us through the significance . Reporter on the face of it, it could look like another Incremental Development in the s but theems from russia, significance is there was widespread speculation that turkey would keep the Missile Defense system in the box, sort of, in order to not antagonize the u. S. And risk sanctions. This shows that actually, turkey is going ahead with that, and why is this significant . It risks action from congress, which has championed sanctions against turkey. We saw the lira reversing gains. We saw stocks drop. Now everyone is watching for rid of a reaction will come out of washington, from the ministration or capitol hill. Administration or capitol hill. Alix thank you. Tois johnson aims consolidate his lead ahead of a general election. Alix alix hings joining me now from london is edward evans, Bloomberg Brexit editor. Did we learn anything with the conservative manifesto . Edward no, this is really about mitigating the risks. That manye manifesto blamed lost the election for brings may, so it nervousness with the conservative party ahead of the elections. Yes, there are tax cuts for some in there, there are pledges for 50,000 more nurses, and for more infrastructure, but look more deeply and you will see some of these pledges are balanced out. The tax cut on National Insurance is balanced by an increased corporation tax, but every extra pound Boris Johnson is promising to spend, Jeremy Corbyn is planning to spend an additional six. The big thing is brexit. Boris johnson makes it clear this is about getting brexit done, getting a deal for parliament, and getting a trade deal by the end of next year, something that many observers suggest would be very difficult. Alix thank you very much, bloombergs edward evans. It is merger monday. A lot of deals on the people. Lvmh agreeing to buy tiffany for billion, 16 the largest luxury deal ever. With more is annmarie hordern. It is a hugearie day for retail. This is the biggest in the luxury space. It started at 120, but they were able to think this deal at 135. To really get bid control and expand their portfolio in jewelry. They are dominant in clothing and cosmetics, but ranks third globally for jewelry. With tiffany, they could possibly unseat richemont. Another deal this morning in the finance space, Charles Schwab. They are going to have a huge sway over the brokerage industry if they are able to have this deal with td ameritrade, about 26 billion this deal is worth. That is about 5 trillion of assets with these companies. There could be some red flags for antitrust regulators. And novartis buying up a u. S. Company based in new jersey medicine. How they expand their portfolio is really through acquisition. Medicine has a very promising cholesterol drug. We seen medicine stock triple with this excitement of the drug that many people say is really important. Alix thank you very much, annmarie hordern. Something else i am watching is uber. That stock down almost 5 in premarket. Londons Transit Authority refused to grant it a new license. The reason, rider safety. It is still concerned that unauthorized drivers can manipulate the app to carry passengers. There are more than 45,000 drivers in the city. Currently, uber can still operate while a Magistrates Court considers the decision. Coming up, more on your morning trade and analysis in the markets in todays first take. This is bloomberg. Alix time now for bloomberg first take. Joining me from our inhouse team a wall street veterans and insiders are Gina Martin Adams, Vincent Cignarella, and also joining us is vinay pande, ubs Wealth Management head of trading strategies. Happy monday, everybody. We made it. We got up. Thats the first thing. [laughter] goingpotentially, we are to have ip penalties. What do you think about that as a traitor . As a trader . Think it is a good step Vincent Vincent i think it is a good step. We are just too far away from the election to close a deal completely yet. We also have a lot of hurdles yet to go. But the ip thing is a huge talking point for the president to take this forward to say we did get a little more from china. Its the face he has to put on it. We need to get a little more because we are coming in under loaned to begin with. This is a big step forward to make it appear that we are getting a better side of the trade, and that will sell politically down the road. Alix is this an excuse to buy risk . Gina i think it is. I think the signal is more important than the reality. Ultimately, i think investors will say, what does this really mean . Will there actually be any action as opposed to just words . But it is a signal that we are moving in the right direction, and that is all that matters for the market right now. Both gina and vincent are broadly right. There is very high uncertainty. Because of the fine balance of think, fromnty, we a short to medium term point of view, it is neutral for your strategic allocation. Moree didnt to be much longterm oriented, and our Investor Survey we disconnected should this nearterm nervousness about geopolitics, trade in particular, elections and so on, but high confidence. N the future there are incredible opportunities further out, and things to focus on at a time like this. Vincent it is hard to disagree with you going into the end of the year, to take a little off the table. Its been a good run lately. You dont want the hiccup of december from 2018 all over again. Going to be plenty of opportunities in 2020 to get on board this trade because theres going to be a lot of volatility, i think. Thats one thing we can be sure of with this trade deal, is that vol is going to be there. Alix but technically, there is no volatility. Vincent but i think it will. I think thats one of the trades we will see pickup in 2020 as this deal comes to fruition in the headlines float around it. Alix does anyone care about phase two . Gina no. [laughter] gina its a great question because supposedly this is going to have some followthrough, but the fact that we have taken so long to get to phase one means we cant even think about phase two. I think that longerterm investors are saying, how do we get to phase two in an Election Year with an impeachment . But with everyone so shortterm focused, it is just getting to phase one and the end of the year. But that does present a risk coming into the early part of the year. You say, ok, now what . Where are we going to go from here . You start to thing about policies, frexit on our minds at the early part of the year. It all comes crashing back on you. But for now, it is progress. Vinay and phase three, if there is one. Alix no doubt it is important. Vinay but it is not just a matter of being important conceptually, which it is. You cant have a portfolio that is dependent on your gas about a political your guess about a political outcome because we have no idea how it will end up. We think, in the near term, you should be more consumeroriented. You should be with companies that are more inward looking because globalization, this incredible move we saw over 15, 20 years, has either stalled or is maybe in reverse. So your portfolio has to reflect reality. This is not a thing to do over the next 10 years. This is something to do now. So you have to act upon it, and we are acting upon it. Alix i feel like the problem is that if youve hedged, that hasnt worked when it come to politics. As a trader, how do you find something that is not exposed . Vincent you dont trade politics, per se. Can seeithstanding, you the values of trading cable in brexit, but i think one of the things weve looked at in terms of the positive signs in trade, what china is doing right now, this is very much the Financial Stability situation in china. China recognizes that only local level, it would probably get out city and state wide debt basis. The states and municipalities had a similar situation. Look for fiscal stimulus, and theres no where to find it. This is china prepping for a fiscal stimulus move down the road should the wheels fall off on trade, and even if they dont. They will be in a strong position to stimulate their own economy and potentially the global economy. So i think it is a positive to go about the road into 2020. Alix i guess the other part of this is that big ball of money, that if we take it out of china, does any of this move out of the u. S. Into europe and emerging markets on a sustainable basis . Gina i think it is starting to. You had breakouts in canada, and europe. It is starting to move to developed markets beyond the u. S. As risk tolerance is coming back. It is not moving en masse to emerging markets, but there are pockets of strength. Russia has been on fire. Russian equities are breaking out higher. Or are pockets of strength in emerging markets coming. I think developed market strength is broadening beyond the u. S. As we start to look forward to slightly better growth in the year ahead. It is all following Monetary Policy moves. The other thing when you think about the longerterm view is what is happening with Monetary Policy, that is the policy that really moves risk tolerance. This catullus he is important, trade policy is important, but policy is important,. Rade policy is important vinay these markets will catch up. It is a good time to go neutral if you are a very aggressive trader. Belong thepaid to u. S. And short everything else. I think that has probably run its course, and we should be broadening out. Vincent i totally agree. Weve been talking about the end of the dollar bull run. I think 2020 is going to be an em story. Yield inll be seeking attractive markets that can go higher on a more positive trade deal. That probably will see growth move from the u. S. To not necessarily other developed markets, but i think more to emerging ones. Alix you had goldman and i think you had jp morgan and i think Goldman Sachs betting on emerging markets. Thats going to be why you are going to want to buy them. Why nots year, th this year, though . Gina it has started to become a trade this year. We saw increasing pmis in the summer months. But it built in other developed markets, not yet in emerging markets. It is a pick your spots story, and that is because the dollar has not totally turned over. The dollar is really hanging in there. For emerging markets to outperform, youve got to see the dollar turnover. Vinay its already begun. If you look at what benefits first from rate cuts across emerging banks, emerging market bonds have done very well. Sovereign debt in dollars in emerging markets has done extremely well. These countries are much better funded than they were 20 years ago. That is something we are acting on as we speak. Alix cable, are you trading it today . Vincent vincent im always trading cable. Thats haunted me for the better part of 40 years. [laughter] vincent im not a fan of sterling closer to 1. 30. Thats definitely not where i want to be buying sterling. Alix Gina Martin Adams and Vincent Cignarella, thank you very much. Vinay pande will be sticking with us. It reminder, any charts we use throughout the show, go to gtv on your terminal. Check it out and save all the charts. This is bloomberg. Viviana you are watching bloomberg daybreak. Its a multibilliondollar deal that will reshape the retail brokerage business. Charles schwab agreeing to buy td ameritrade, valued at about 26 billion. Schwab is capitalizing on the industry shock it created last month by cutting commissions on u. S. Stock trading to zero. Schwab was americas original discount broker when it was founded almost a halfcentury ago. It is the largest luxury goods deal ever. Lvmh agreeing to buy tiffany for more than 16 billion. That will raise the french companys profile in jewelry. 37 deal values tiffany above the price on october 26, when bloomberg broke the story of lvmhs initial approach. Novartis agreeing to buy 9. 7 billion for the price. 9. 7 billion. The price is a 47 premium for medicines. That is your Bloomberg Business flash. Learned carlrg has icahn plans to nominate a slate of 10 directors. About 3 in oxley is of the company. Hes unhappy about the companys takeover of anadarko petroleum. Shares have fallen 41 . Many people i have talked to our unhappy about the deal and the levers, but not necessarily into how carl icahn is handling it. Coming up on this program, ubs global Wealth Management calls 20 a year of choices. We will talk about what those choices are all 2020 a year of choices. We will talk about what those choices are. It looks like we are treading water. Movement, the european Retail Sector up 21 . We have a lot of supply coming on in the twoyear, particularly the bond market, but the twos continueshe twostens to flatten. Commodities not feeling any uplift from trade, treading water around the. Happy monday, everybody. This is bloomberg. Alix this is bloomberg daybreak. A quick check on the markets. Equity futures tread water a bit. Nothing to write home about here. Part of the story is luxury retail. Watch that space as we head into the open. Twostens continuing to flatten. The cable rate the performer former in the g10 space. Have Jeremy Corbyn gaining in the race against the conservative party. Ubs Wealth Management writes, year ofbase case, in a choices for policymakers, the base case is greater than usual. With a still is vinay pande. I feel like with every outlook, it feels really binary. That in assetage or location in Asset Allocation . Vinay good question. The first is if you are a hostage to the uncertainty described, the truths we have listed, you are either going to be right or wrong. Insightave very special into what is going to happen on all these fronts alix good for you. [laughter] vinay we dont. To neutralize your exposure to these outcomes, focus on where the strength is likely to be. Avoid the sectors that are more challenged. Consumer discretionary had some news today. Its an area we like. Munications is an area we Like Communications is an area we like. We are a little more defensive. Round technology in fixed income, we are a bit overweight. We like emerging market bonds denominated in dollars. Hise have solid five its cash solid finances, and we think that is attractive these have solid finances, and we think that is attractive. Across the board, in a diversified way, owning emergingmarket sovereign debt in dollars is a good idea for u. S. Investors. Inflationse, we think breakevens are incredibly low, and they are suggesting the fed is doomed to failure. It is a little early to give up on the central bank yet. I think for that reason, we like tips. Nominal fixed income is were flipping a very poor outcome which may or may not transpire. Alix in that scenario, you dont need 3 inflation. You just need inflation to not go lower. Vinay exactly correct. Alix when you take a look on a regional basis, say when youre looking at communications and consumer discretionary, is it u. S. Versus europe versus em . The pain trade for u. S. Is still going to be outperformance. Do you agree . Vinay given the progress we are seeing on the trade talks, i dont think it suits anybody to have this end up in a complete disaster. Neither the u. S. Nor china. The progress we are seeing is, i think, telling investors that the huge outperformance of the markets,us foreign which was out waited because the you is more to focused, should see outperformance by markets that are depressed relative to the u. S. If theres no progress on the trade front, how much worse can they do . Yes, europe is much more exposed. We dont like that as much. Alix but it could already be priced in. Vinay exactly. Alix what is progress . When you are going to put money to work, but you need to see . Vinay i have very modest demands. I just dont want to get worse. [laughter] the december 15 tariffs dont come on, for example. Vinay yes, i think the market would expect that. The robot have tariffs would be very good news. Im not sure that is in the price yet. I dont even think it should be expected yet. But yes, just things not getting worse its very important. ,hats happening is investment a very important leg of growth in u. S. And across the world, investment growth has been very weak of late. That is happening at the same time that policy uncertainty is very high. Alix energy, for example, is a cyclical issue. It has nothing to do with the administration. Vinay yes. Energy is a special case, as you know. But policy uncertainty is weighing on capital in this industry. They dont know which way to go. They dont know whether to invest domestically, or which country i should go to other than china. Could that country track tariffs or a trade war . Uncertaintyg out of , or ideally a reduction in uncertainty, would be a very big fuss. Alix the other theme a very big plus. Alix the other theme is value and growth. , you canular, the u. S. See the outperformance we have seen a value. You see that trend picking up slightly in europe. Is that a value call . Or is there a different option between the two . Vinay we are neutral between value and growth currently, but there is one aspect of growth people have underappreciated. That is Interest Rates. Growth starved world, it is hardly surprising that Growth Stocks have done well. But theres a second aspect of this. Growth stocks have back waited htedurbed have backweig disturbed assets. What we have seen over the last few weeks or months is some recovery of Interest Rates, a rise of Interest Rates. I think the rise of Interest Rates goes a long way towards explaining what youre describing. If you tell me that rates are rising if the basis points from here, that may have legs. If you tell me growth is going to recover materially, that trade may have legs. We are not sure. Based on that, im assuming you like Precious Metals. When sex sees 1600 for gold next year. Goldman sachs sees 1600 for gold next year. Vinay we certainly prefer Precious Metals to base metals. We dont see that much upside in bond yields because growth is challenged. Uncertainty exists. Alix do you buy any selloff we see in the treasury market or not . Vinay likely yes. Likely the long end. Evident and because theres inflation, if it happens because theres a surgeon growth, yes come but under current conditions, it is a very useful offset to an equity position. The big problem apart from volatility which we discussed, globalizing will be a downturn world. It is a lower growth world, and we face prospectively diminished returns. How do you address that . How do you meet your liabilities . How do you achieve your investment objectives in a world of diminished returns . Your portfolio has to reflect what is available. Youre going to be forced to own more equities in that situation. That means youve got to elevate your risk somewhat. Counterbalance that more elevated risk stance with more defensive expressions. That is really what we are about. Do not lose sight of the longterm picture. Important. Y the long run is not summit to act upon 30 years from now. It is something to act upon today. Alix thank you. I really appreciate talking to you, vinay pande of ubs Wealth Management. Viviana hurtado is here with first word news. Viviana we begin with a copper mies from china and the trade war with the u. S. It will raise penalties on the theft of intellectual property, one of the Sticking Points in trade talks. Commit tonce china to cracking down on ip theft. Former new york mayor michael a passrg plans to take democratic president ial race. He will focus on california and other states voting on super tuesday in march. Michael bloomberg is the founder and majority owner of bloomberg lp, the Parent Company of Bloomberg News. Over to london, where the Transit Authority refused to grant uber a new license. That endangers the ridehailing services future operations there. The government is concerned that drivers come in you like the app to carry passengers drivers can manipulate the app to carry passengers. Global news 24 hours a day, on air and tictoc on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. Im Viviana Hurtado. This is bloomberg. Alix thank you very much. I want to stay on that uber story. Bloomberg News Technology editor from london. What is the probability that uber actually gets taken off the streets at some point . Reporter i think it would be difficult to put a firm number against that, but it is pretty low that anything will change in the near future. Uber has 21 days to appeal the decision, and they said today that it will do. As time that happened, it was months before that appeal was initially heard in the court. Even if it lost that, it could take that up to the supreme court, and then we are talking potentially years before this gets fully resolved, and all of that time, it is fine for it to accept new rides and continue operating on the streets as it has done before now. Alix this seems pretty moderate in the price action in premarkets. Or important is london tube is london to ubers growth and strategy . Reporter it is a very lucrative city for the company, substantially losing a foothold here, potentially when we have competition, is concerning to investors who are already fairly concerned about Growth Potential , as we seen from the ipo this year. I think thats why we saw the fluctuates in this morning, but the reality is it will be quite a long time before we have any certainty on what ubers future here looks like here. And in the meantime, they can continue as normal. Alix is there anything they can do to fix with the london Transit Authority had a problem with . Nate definitely. The concern is in the software. Tfl said this morning that uber made a number of positive changes over the last couple of years, but the Software Needs to be improved to prevent abuse. As long as uber can fix the software, may be influenced new security measures, maybe that will appease tfl and it can get its license back without further hassle. Alix thank you. Really appreciate it. When i was in florence last year didntiness, uber operate in the city, and i was literally like, how do i get around . Coming up, tiffany will noble onto the man who owns Louis Vuitton and don perrin on dom perignon. This is bloomberg. Viviana this is bloomberg daybreak. Billionaire investor carl icahn trying to seize control of occidental petroleums board. Icahn plans to nominate a slate of 10 directors. His stock is valued at about 10 billion. Hes unhappy about the companys 37 billion takeover of anadarko petroleum. Since interest in anadarko was first reported, shares have fallen 41 . Alibaba says the retail portion of its Hong Kong Ipo was oversubscribed 42 times. On tuesday, shares begin trading. Chinas Largest Company expects to raise net proceeds of about 11. 2 billion. Alibabas primary listing venue will still be the new york stock exchange. Hisd einhorn continuing long one more with teslas elon musk. Einhorn says hes beginning to wonder whether teslas accounts receivable exist. Greenlight capital has lost money on its bet against musk, and in related news, says tesla has seen 200,000 ertruck,or its cyb despite having two windows unexpectedly shatter in thursdays big reveal. Alix thank you so much. I cant believe almost 200,000 people were like, i totally want that car. We turn now to wall street beat. We cover three things wall street is buzzing about this morning. , and nextsaudi arabia up, i would be next up, abu dhabi. Afters richest man goes american choppers. Lvmhs chairman has agreed to buy tiffany for more than 16 billion, the biggest luxury deal ever. Joining us now is should ali vasek is sonali basak. If they are going outside saudi arabia, does it count to get other investors in . Caroline it is not just sonali it is not just domestic, i guess. But the reason the roadshow is staggering is because how many had to be canceled globally as well. London, the u. S. , canada, japan. Alix it doesnt seem to be a problem, though. It seems like the retail interest is quite strong. Sonali they are doing a lot better at home. We had our own reporters on the ground showing that people leaving the roadshow into by were saying that they would buy in. They are ok with it. Some have said that local investors in the u. S. And elsewhere are a little more hesitant. Alix if this goes well and they are able to draw up interest in etc. , maybeubai, they will internationally list at some point. Sonali perhaps. One of the biggest hang up here was valuation. You have a dividend deal that is lower than shell. Lower than exxon. Alix lets get to the second deal here. Charles schwabtd ameritrade is now official, 26 billion. What was your take away from this . Sonali if you take two businesses that are smashing fees, what do you get out of it . They have the pintle to change the game here if they take they have the potential to change the game here if they take what they are bringing in. Can you be bigger, better, more diversified . There is an antitrust concern. These are the biggest ria custodians. Remember, schwab also gets half of its income from interest income, also under pressure. So how do you diversify these businesses enough to make sense and be the market killer here . Alix also, doesnt Charles Schwab have more diversifiers then selling stuff to Retail Investors . They have much lower exposure to that, right . Sonali yes, much lower. Saying, interest is becoming a bigger part of the business. Custodians will be the biggest of all the businesses. But see if they can make their other businesses make sense to make up for that lost revenue. Alix and the third deal, lvmh and tiffany, the biggest luxury deal ever. Your biggest take away . Sonali i biggest take away is nault coming up as a dealmaker here. It didnt take very long. He ended up paying about 2 billion than the initially set out to do, all cash. Bankers all over the world love this. The thing is, his net worth this year has risen faster than any other billionaire in the world. Alix really . Sonali yes. At one point he was the third richest man, competing with bill gates. If you strike deals like that, people are going to be looking at you not only to expand this empire. He already has planned for tiffany. The jewelry is the smallest part of his empire. So if he can expand this part of the business while also expanding his own personal alix and this is lowrent, for him. Sonali exactly. Alix did you get any sense of how hard it was for them to raise a bid . That was the talk. It is not going to be enough. Was it hard to get that price . Sonali when you watch these things play out, what i wonder is what was his price at the beginning. If you start low, im wondering mind, he ists saying what a steal, or we shouldnt go that much further . But it didnt take that long. Alix bloombergs sonali basak, thank you. We are going to take a look at taylor swifts big night at the American Music awards. She was able to perform some of her old hits following the end of a nasty dispute with her ex manager and former record label. Awards, surpassing Michael Jacksons alltime record. She has 29 of the now. All the matters to me is the memories that ive had with you guys, with you come of the fans, over the years. Tlix she was named artis of the year. It was a big night. Coming up, you might want to get a closer look at the philly fed index. Thats in todays traders take. If you are jumping into your car, tune into Bloomberg Radio, heard across the u. S. On sirius xm channel 119 and on the Bloomberg Business app. This is bloomberg. Alix time now for traders take. Joining me is Vincent Cignarella come of voice of the bloomberg audio sqawk Vincent Cignarella, voice of the bloomberg audio sqawk. You can find them on the terminal at squa. Are you going to give me a glass halffull perspective . Vincent kind of. The yearoveryear change on a monthly basis of the s p correlates rather nicely. We seen the threemonth philly fed index turn lower as the s p is turning higher. You have to wonder if the correlation holds through for the month of december. You might see a bit of a selloff in equities. Nothing major, but a little bit of profit taking. It might be an opportunity to take a little off the table, and as we joked last week, maybe selloff stock and head to philly for a cheesesteak. Alix you joked about that last week . Supercool. [laughter] alix what do you make when you chase the rally into yearend . Vincent personally, if i saw a rally go into yearend, i would be fading. I would think it is just a little bit overdone. Weve seen record high, record high, based on trade optimism. We are a long way from a trade deal yet. This is just a little bit of a brush on it with a potential ip deal. Theres nothing really tangible to hold onto. Alix i have not had a cheesesteak income alike, since i was like 20. Coming up, torsten slok, doi to bank chief economist torsten slok, Deutsche Bank chief economist, will be joining us. This is bloomberg. Beyond the routine checkups. Beyond the notsoroutine cases. Comcast business is helping doctors provide care in whole new ways. All working with a new generation of technologies powered by our gigspeed network. Because beyond technology. There is human ingenuity. Every day, comcast business is helping businesses go beyond the expected. To do the extraordinary. Take your business beyond. Alix welcome to bloomberg daybreak on this monday, november 25. Im alix steel. Heres everything you need to know what the hour. Lets take it from the top. Prodemocracy candidates sweep hong kong. For the first time, that pressure has translated into a democratic exercise for 2. 9 Million People on sunday. Alix a Record Number of hong kong theres vote for prodemocracy candidates in local elections. Pres. Trump china would much rather make a trade deal than i would. China once cutbacks on trade violations by 2022. They want to make it easier for victims of ip theft to get compensation. Alix potentially smoothing over a key Sticking Point for the u. S. M a monday. Lvmh, novartis, Charles Schwab inking deals to expand their businesses. This is the biggest ever acquisition for bernard arnault, but also the biggest in the luxury space. They were able to think this deal at 135. Alix Michael Bloomberg skipping early voting states and aiming for super tuesday in march. The fact that Michael Bloomberg is going to put his eye on some of the later races, that is a strategy that makes sense for entering this late in the race, but certainly one we havent seen in modern president ial politics. Alix the 2020 democratic president ial race gets more unpredictable. And in the markets, it is all about waiting and seeing. Maybe some trade optimism, but we are kind of mushy. Youre not really going anywhere. We do have luxury stocks getting a nice bid. 10 year yield goes nowhere. A lot of supply coming online over the next few days. 20 me for the hour, Romaine Bostick joining me for the hour, Romaine Bostick. If i said baby yoda to you, would that mean anything to you . Romai to you . Romaine it means something to me, but i havent seen the mandalorian. Because yoda, you can do a million sequels. Alix the baby is 50. Romaine the baby is 50 . Alix the equity rally could continue to pick up steam in the next few months, but will reverse course of the u. S. Heads for mild recession next year. Thats the call according to socgens crossice at strategist. We cannot rule out a melt up in the coming months. However, we would not expect this move to last. Sophie joins us now on the phone from london. Good to chat with you. What was the why behind the call and the melt up to 3400 . Sophie good morning. The melt up scenario to 3400 corresponds to a scenario where everything goes right, so for , as youchina trade war , we are still in the context where positioning sentiment indicators are not showing any signs of complacency, but more importantly, i think we are underestimating the yield environment, which is key for this environment. We are facing this 12 trillion negative yielding debt, slightly shifting the nature of assets and how investors are assessing their allocation. 2 dividend yield, 3 buyback yield. When you have 10 year treasuries at 1. 7 , you also have u. S. Equity risk premium really high. So we think a melt up as possible, but not sustainable. 2020,e as we head into we have the fed support and a lot of support from other areas. We look at some of the more fundamentals that we would expect to support stocks, what is your outlook there, and hows that going to change your forecast deeper into 2020 . Sophie for the s p, we expect they reshape. Basically, we are in a nonrecession scenario resting on the assumption of two quarters of negative gdp, with 0. 7 ,r year around according to our u. S. Economists. Drawdown isext, the nothing compared to other cycles because of three reasons. Key expansion should be supported by further cuts and balanced expansion. Earnings recession shallower than previous cycles because it will be a smart recession scenario. But most important lee, we still itect 600 billion buybacks, a significant support for the s p next year viviana the s p next year. Romaineank you joining and i now, torsten slok, Deutsche Bank chief economist. Do you know the baby yoda thing . Torsten i do not. Alix you dont . [laughter] tox well if we arent going talk about baby yoda, what is the possibility of a u. S. Recession . Torsten theres a Downside Risk that the fed talks about. We continue to worry about trade and slowing growth. It looks a little better in germany today, but we still dont expect a recession. Therefore, it should be relatively benign, at least for now, for markets. Romaine the general idea whenever people talk about avoiding a recession and keeping asset prices elevated, they point to treasury yield and say, this is going to be one of the main areas of support. We had a call last week from bill dudley that basically said low treasury yields really arent sustainable, and that is a risk to the economic forecast. Torsten that is a critical question that the market has spoken about for a long time. Why is it that treasury yields are so low when you had a very low and employment rate . Low and employment rate . Low Unemployment Rate . Also because the rest of the world is hunting yield. Can this continue . Is there anything that will get treasury rates up . Can we continue to spend as much money as we want in terms of government spending, tax deficits . Why is it that rates continue to be so low in so many Different Countries . Romaine the same idea that dudley also brought up was the idea of corporate debt and how it has swelled to a level where you would at least are to be a little bit concerned, particularly if you didnt get that shift in yields. More the fronting and long end of the curve the front end and long end of the seen high have metrics for more and more leverage. Weve also seen credit metrics change. Is that sustainable . As long as the risks remain low, the hunt for yield will probably continue. They have been chasing yields and all kinds of different asset classes. That is what the fed is supported by lowering rates further. Alix which makes up, like, three of your top risks for 2020. How does trade factor at all into this . Torsten this is a nearterm issue. More conflict or being relegated to these longerterm dividends. They both have something in the long term pushing in one direction and the shortterm viviana and the shortterm. We still expect we will have a phase i deal at some point signed, probably by the end of this year. We will have to wait and see exactly when. But this is very important as a precondition for the optimism we have been seann coming back into markets more recently. Romaine the read on a potential trade deal is all about confidence rather than some sort of tangible Economic Activity . Torsten yes, and what is important about that distinction is there may be a sign of a deal, but it is also about the confidence inside the minds of ceos and cfos. Weve seen capex spending continue to go down. Capexe of the cost of being made of yearoveryear, companies are not investing more in computers, software, equipment lines, equipment, we will also begin to see a negative impact on hiring. So we need a trade deal sooner rather than later so this on will be on how ceos and cfos think about this. We might move from trade war uncertainty to election uncertainty. Alix how much of that is going to be structural versus not . Citi had a report out thinking about the capex, that that is a cyclical thing not to do with trade. Theres also communication investment, maybe 5g, not us extreme as we necessarily thought. Torsten it is relatively broadbased, and the only worrying issue about the slow down in capex is it is global. It makes using of the timing that has started rolling over, about the middle of last year, that the trade war may be playing a bigger role. It is not showing any signs of turning round to the upside. Romaine on the idea of the capex downturn being a global phenomenon, is it the same pressure we are seeing in the u. S. . Is that also weighing on the issues the capex issues . Torsten we had issues of the auto sector in germany, and other issues that have not hit the u. S. We suspect the timing of many of start they do slowing down exactly when the trade war starts escalating. It is not just the trade war. There have been some videos and credit reasons why europe has been slowing a bit more. Alix this is a trend that caught my eye over the weekend, Liquidity Risk rising. Basically, the more above zero it is, the more stress in the Global Financial system. Where do you feel like we are seeing that the most, when you havent of 30 basis, u. S. Treasury yields 1. 38 . That thatt is clear is just an aromas issue in terms of why is it the funding markets have been through this roller coaster ride. Will this be resolved by what the fed has done up to this point . Alix you are seeing the funding stress also in europe. Torsten this is why it is something people are paying a lot of attention to. It feeds into the strategy of the Central Banks, and it is some thing that the fed has been trying to hammer out. You look at repo is a share of total amount of treasuries outstanding, essentially the lowest level in decades. Theres just a significant amount of treasuries relative to the amount of repose going on. Maybe the question is should repose be a lot higher. Be a lot higher. Alix torsten slok of Deutsche Bank will be sticking with us. Coming up, restoring tiffanys glitz. A purchase by lvmh as we kick off a big week for retailers. This is bloomberg. Mlix mna monday in full swing a monday in full swing. Lvmh agreeing to buy tiffany for 16 billion. Reporter it seems the deal was seeming sort of inevitable since Bloomberg News initially reported an offer a couple of weeks back. It seemed like lvmh was going to have to sweeten the pot, and they did. I think these companies will be a good pair together. Jewelry is one of the fastestgrowing areas of the luxury business. It is good for lvmh to have more exposure to that. Tiffany, i think, will benefit from going into the arms of a bigger conglomerate. It will be able to spend more on marketing and take advantage of this supply chain expertise that lvmh has. Romaine we are headed into the black friday week here in the u. S. , and i guess now worldwide, for reasons i dont quite understand. [laughter] romaine give us a breakdown of who is going to win here. Back in the old days when this time of your come around, i would get the catalog and things for my mother. Yes, im old. [laughter] romaine whos driving the trend now in a world where it is just all amazon . Sarah i think the equivalent of that now is swiping for your social media feed or the app of your favorite retailer. Amazon, walmart, and target are going to be the ones that are going to benefit here. Ecommerce is going to be where all the growth is this year. The Retail Industry is excepting about 4 sales growth, but ecommerce will be, like, 14 . Particularly with black friday and cyber monday, theres some talk that on my chopping has killed black friday and made it less important. Not true. Black friday will be only behind cyber monday in terms of the sales it generates online, so this is a crucially important weekend for retailers to connect with their customers and bring up some sales. Alix sarah halzack, thank you very much. Where do you think i am going to be at 9 01 on friday after i finish the show . [laughter] alix torsten slok of Deutsche Bank joining us. We know the rhetoric. A consumer is great. For thee to hold up economy to continue to grow. Where is the weakness . Torsten there are some worries about, if you look at the cycles cross spectrum, there are some challenges, even when the Unemployment Rate is at the lowest level in 50 years. They worry and now it is beginning to swing too quickly the other way. A number of people will no longer be able to buy cars, use their credit cards to get financing. All these years in the cycle expansion is very long. We just got to a point where the pendulum was swinging from very easy credit, now slowly swinging back, similar to what youre seeing in highyielding credit markets, where some parts of the Corporate Credit market is showing some strain at the bottom. We are seeing a little bit of that for the consumer. But it should still be, at least for now, something that should be holding the expansion together. We are watching this very carefully because, the Unemployment Rate being low has apparently not been enough for people to be able to pay their bills. Romaine ive seen at his to sick ive seen a statistic showing that personal loan growth is up, but we are not near those alarming levels we saw prior to the financial crisis, where the share of Household Debt was just off the charts. Should we be concerned that it is growing, or should we pay more attention to what it is looking to where we were back in 2006 . Torsten torsten thats a very good question. By far, the most important indicator is the Unemployment Rate. When someone goes out to buy a car, the first question you asked, do you have a job . They dont ask about what are the risks of the cycle in terms of what is going on. The thing that we have been is theattention to banks ability to lend has been slowing down, and hasnt really improved with the fed cutting rates. So we are a little worried that the transmission mechanism for Monetary Policy is not functioning the way it normally would. Romaine why do you think banks are being more cautious . They clearly have the capacity. Torsten thanks have been regulated quite substantially, so thats why this a lot in the shadow Banking Sector and elsewhere. The issue is a lot of marginal lending has been happening outside the Banking Sector, which is why banking is not the greatest at this point in the cycle because a lot of lending has been moving elsewhere. So it is really about trying to figure out, can we get ahead of some data on what is going on inside the Banking Sector. We are still reasonably optimistic on the consumer. Jobless claims have moved a little bit up. But still, for now, although it looks more fragile, we still think the expansion should be holding together. Alix torsten slok of Deutsche Bank will be sticking with us. Coming up, can the fed fight inequality . The minneapolis fed president says yes, with a rethink of their mandate. This is bloomberg. Viviana this is bloomberg daybreak. Its a multibilliondollar deal till brokerage business. Buyles schwab agreeing to td ameritrade, capitalizing on the industry shock it created last month by cutting commissions on u. S. Stock trading to zero. Schwab was americas original discount broker when it was founded almost a halfcentury ago. It is the largest luxury goods deal ever. Lvmh agreeing to buy tiffany for more than 16 billion. That will raise the french companys profile in jewelry. The deal values tiffany 37 above the Closing Price on october 26, when bloomberg reported lvmhs initial approach. That is your Bloomberg Business flash. Alix thanks so much. Heres another story that caught my eye over the weekend. Can the fed really fight inequality . Minneapolis fed president Neel Kashkari says yes, and that Monetary Policy can play the register beating role play a redistributing role. Andchair jay powell colleagues have cited lowpaid americans when cutting ratea this year. S when cutting rates this year. What is the significance of this statement by Neel Kashkari . Torsten u. S. Yourself the question, what are the instruments and the tools of Monetary Policy and fiscal policy . It becomes immediately clear that fiscal policy just has endless amounts of tools and instruments they can turn on to make sure something happens, whereas Monetary Policy really only has Interest Rates. So if you want to solve any problem, if you want to increase spending, increase whatever capex, whatever you want to do, which is the right tool to use . What can Interest Rates do if you are trying to help with inequality problem that we have . There are probably some things they can do with asset prices, stock prices, home prices. Over the last several years, lifting stock prices and home prices have been a very important part of qe for the fed. Romaine so if the fed does start to make a push towards this distributional outcome, how do you defend that in the face of the idea that the fed should be this independent the idea a rising tide lifts all boats that gave it a buffer from being a political arm . Ate isn the mand stable inflation and ask them unemployment. If there are things about inequality that are challenging that gold, you could argue that may be inequality is at least one step on the road to trying to get maximum employment. But you have to rewrite the mandate of inflation and employment. It is a very important debate of whether or not this can be done by the fed. Alix torsten slok of Deutsche Bank sticking with us. Coming up, we are looking at Sustainable Investing with audrey choi of Morgan Stanley. This is bloomberg. Alix this is bloomberg daybreak. I am alix steel. Happy monday. A lot of m a happening. You are seeing equity futures grinding higher. Luxury retailers on the lvmh deal. In other asset classes, it feels quiet. The pound is the upper former and the g10 space. Not a ton of movement. Maybe a little of a weaker dollar when it comes to the cable rate. The curve continuing to flatten in the u. S. 14 basis points is where we sit. Fors the time of the year 2020 outlooks and Goldman Sachs is out with its latest outlook. Requirement for the signatories of the agreement integrated into 15 of their a um. In 2028, a um will impact impact will more than double. We already are seeing some of that money move. We had a recent report according to morningstar saying esg focused funds have taken in a record 13. 5 billion from investors in the first three quarters of the year. Joining us to talk about it is audrey choi, Morgan Stanley chief marketing and sustainability officer. Welcome and good to see you. Audrey thanks for having me. Alix how do you define esg at Morgan Stanley and how much money have we seen moved . Audrey esg refers to a broad array of things. There are many things out there. What makes sense for us as investors and your audience is one of those environmental and social factors that can be material to earnings and material to valuation . What we have done is focused industry by industry on what are the specific things, Climate Change issues, or social issues that can drive valuations, both from a return perspective and from risk. Romaine how do you define that on an industry basis but even on a Company Company basis. You take Climate Change, which is a broad thing. It may make sense for an Energy Company to address it, but how does a tech company or in uber that is a tech platform, what with their involvement be and how do you make those distinctions . Audrey Climate Change is a pretty unique one. It is a massive megatrend. Standardsnability board estimated 93 of the u. S. Equity market is exposed to climate risk. What you have to do with thinking about an individual industry is breaking that down. Business continuity might be about water usage and temperatures that interfere with working conditions and the ability to produce. Alix the question that comes up a lot with esg is how you define it and are the returns better . During a time of high market volatility, you saw sustainable funds do better. This chart shows the vertical line of when you have the market volatility and what happens after the fact. Walk us through what you learned . One of the reasons one of the perceptions is that there must be sacrifice on returns. Funds to see,000 if there is a performance differential. We found the performance was identical from the sustainable funds to the traditional funds. Periodshort shows, the of volatility, they were less volatile and the downside was 20 last. What that shows is when you think about environmental and social issues, it is not that youre limiting your choices, you are expanding your data set in your understanding of what are the Different Things that are not today and financial statements, but should be. Romaine are the data stats capable of providing that . It is hard to distill it down in something that is investable in a quantifiable way. Audrey we have a ton of data and the challenge is differentiating the signal from the noise. What we have done at Morgan Stanleys look industry by industry, not at the thousands of possible data sets, but the actual data points, a couple dozen for each industry that will make a material difference. Alix in the report, everyone topped that they wanted to do it and they complain about the reason they cannot do it. What did you find to be the Biggest Barriers to adoption for a huge move like the kind Goldman Sachs is looking at . Barriersne of the main was this misperception that there is a sacrifice to return. What is also interesting, and this goes more the complexities of human nature, do esg companies what you think about their ability to be profitable and have a good investment, we actually had over 80 saying hi esg companies can be more profitable and better investments, yet 64 leave they may have to sacrifice. I think more of the data of the kind we are trying to put out with the institute of Sustainable Investing at Morgan Stanley shows there is not a sacrifice in return. The other is the availability of product and being able to try to make that more accessible. When we started on this journey it wasgo, which is pretty hard for the regular investors to do this. Often time it was an alternative with much higher dollar minimums. Six years ago we introduced the first model portfolios where the minimum was 420,000. 510,000 to 5000 you can invest focusing on these issues. Slok, youveten been sitting here quiet and intensively. You see the shift to more esg assets having a Material Impact on the Way Companies operate and what the economic readthrough is . Torsten i think it is very Important Development and it is incredibly important to do this on its own. It is also a system of low Interest Rates. People have been looking for esg and Climate Change as a way of saying if i get low returns in if equitieslts, look relatively expensive, then you end up saying give me some uncorrelated issues to these other assets i would normally invest in esg. Here is a theme i understand. The only risk is how uncorrelated it is to the other things going on, not only esg but everything else. It is not to say those assets will not be performing better. They have been performing better and we also found that in Deutsche Bank. At the end of the day, it begs the question why is it that there is all this change to the other the medic issues. That centraltant bank are so low. Alix could you not also see oracle relationship between these assets and Central Banks . The ecb talking about Climate Change. There are rumors that over time they will buy esg bonds. In the u. S. Youve seen a push by democrats to lead the fed to encompass Climate Change in their stress tests. Torsten absolutely. It also leads into inequality in the Central Banks. There is something going on which are important of elements in their own right. What can we do to try to help out this process and facilitate support in Different Directions in terms of getting these problems solved . Alix torsten and audrey, youll be sticking with us. Teva and other companies are said to be in talks to end u. S. Probes in relation to a longrunning criminal antitrust probe of alleged pricefixing by those companies. It looks like teva and its peers are in talks to end this probe. That stuck up almost 3 in premarket. We do want to give you an update on what is making headlines outside the business world. Viviana hurtado is here with first world news. Viviana we begin with a compromise with china and the trade war with u. S. On the raise penalties theft of intellectual property. The u. S. Once china to commit to cracking down on ip theft. It also once the chinese to quit forcing American Companies to hand over commercial secrets if they do want to do business there. President donald trump prepared to pour hundreds of millions of dollars next year in florida. The state is up for grabs because of changes in demographics and voting laws. Democrats have made potential major inroads. Republicans plan to make it expensive. Plans to spend more than 200 million in florida. Oracles whiteboard attracting the scrutiny of the u. S. Congress. Members of the black, pacific, and asian caucus say the board needs to increase diversity, saying they are neither africanamerican nor Asian American directors. They call that inexcusable. Global news 24 hours a day, on air and tictoc on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. I am Viviana Hurtado. This is bloomberg. Alix thank you so much. We turn to women of wall street, where we highlight the women created in shaping the world of wall street today. Audley choi ofs Morgan Stanley and torsten slok of Deutsche Bank. This is a way to highlight your community. How do you hire . How do you mentor and do real changes on wall street . Audrey of course it is important to be thinking differently about hiring. Looking at the skills and not the archetype of what you think that role should look like. I think one of the most critical things for promoting the advancement of women on wall street and any industry is about the retention. If you can make that proposition that work so compelling that you will do such interesting and challenging work, that is what keeps people there. You get a false debate that it is about kids. That should be a choice for men and women to prioritize that. I think it is less about the pull away from work and about the pull into work and making it compelling. Tohink it does boil down role modeling. We all look up. If you see there is not anyone who looks like you or will sponsor you and say i think this person who has never done this job before and can, that is what it takes. Romaine where does the pressure come from to make that change . Is it left up to the companies to do this internally or do you put more importance on outside groups and their ability to agitate for change . Audrey i would say it is a couple things. One is the boards of companies play an incredibly Important Role in expecting that of new management. Romaine but if you have a board with zero women and zero minorities, how do you . Audrey you look at what drives performance. Our Research Team did an analysis of gender equity. Not only is high gender diversity the right thing to do, it also drives performance. We found the high gender Diverse Companies outperform the low gender Diverse Companies by 3. 1 per year. If you do not want that as an argument for diversity, i do not know what is . Torsten along with institutional things you do, you can do inside companies and across companies. It Deutsche Bank we have spearheaded a Networking Group where we have mentoring institutions and various forms of networking arrangements across three banks in an attempt to say you are not alone. There are a lot of people thinking about some of the same things. We all need that, even a situation where you attempt to say what should i be doing at this point in time . The networking part of this is extremely important in terms of figuring out how i will talk to others and peers. Alix and also to have that mentor ship, and to have critical performance. I was talking to someone who said their manager came in. It was a bunch of women. They said we will feel it out and see how it goes. She had asked for specific criteria for which she would be judged. Felt this conversation has changed materially in the last two years in terms of how we used to talk about this . Audrey i think so. One thing people are starting to recognize is having diverse teams gets you better results. It needs to be a priority. If your results driven organization and a Performance Organization and you know diverse teams, wonder that be whether that be gender diversity or racial and ethnic diversity, if that drives results that should be something managers demand. We are seeing for the industry as a whole, we have to compete against other industries. We are seeing that other industries, it is not the way it was 20 years ago where it was not necessarily the single and a coal industry that the best and brightest wanted to go to. There was a lot of competition from nonprofits. One of the things we have focused on is as this generation comes up, the best and brightest of this generation is passionate about mission and inclusion in the kind of place they work. If we want to have a best in breed anything, we need to be a place where people can bring their selves and purpose and passion into their work. Have the Sustainable Investing challenge when we go to the best business rules and graduate schools around the country and asked the students to give us their best ideas for financial innovation but also drive not only provident scale but also environmental and social governance. What is great about this is when we see the applicants coming into schools all over the world, they are saying why would you do anything else . Why wouldnt you make sure you are aligning everything you do with passion and purpose . I think there is a different kind of discussion that has to happen if you want the best and the brightest and the most productive. Alix thanks a lot, appreciate the conversation. Archery choi of Morgan Stanley and torsten slok of Deutsche Bank. Targeting carl icahn occidental, said to be seeking control of the companys board. Shares have plunged since interest in anadarko was reported in april. If you go ahead and interact with us on gtv , you can save all of our charts throughout the show. Gtv. Viviana you are watching bloomberg daybreak. I am Viviana Hurtado with your Bloomberg Business flash. The lonza Transit Authority refused to grant uber a new license which endangers the ridehailing service future there. Concern the app can be manipulated. Uber can still operate in the city. United Parking Service asking some of its temporary holiday workers to use their own cars for deliveries. The company is trying to branch with an avalanche of deliveries bond by online shopping. Ups has an online workforce. Local teamsters are not happy. Reducing overtime opportunity for their members and could hurt the ups brand. Im Viviana Hurtado and that is your Bloomberg Business flash. Alix time for bottom line. We look at three Companies Worth watching. I am looking at Charles Schwab officially making the deal for td ameritrade. The Conference Call is happening right now. Schwab seeing the deal approval process, about six to eight months. Good luck . It will be interesting to see if this passes muster with the regulators. At the end of the date you feel like the deal will get done with the complexion we have. You never know. Alix especially if that means the fees will go up from zero to a little bit more. What are you watching . Xerox is a different sort of race to the bottom. You have these two legacy companies. Xerox is trying to buy some much larger hp. Hp said to her proposal does not constitute a basis for Due Diligence negotiation, which is talk to the hand, basically. There is a deadline tonight for the company to file Due Diligence procedure papers, which it does not sound like age people do. The concern is the rocks may try to go hostile. Alix that sounds like a really Good Relationship there. The Third Company is occidental. Carl icahn said to be trying to take control of the board. Brooke sutherland joins us now. Brooke carl icahn is not giving up the fight at occidental. Is not happy about this. Neither are most of occidentals investors. Youve seen the share plunged since they did this takeover and that has to do with what we are seeing throughout the oil space where investors Want Companies to prioritize returns to shareholders. Dividends. Occidental cannot do that because it has to take on so much debt to buy anadarko. Youre seeing the stock penalized. The question is whether carl icahn gets enough support from his fellow investors to overturn the full board, which he is now pushing for. Alix if you talk to a lot of analysts, they do not like the deal, they do not like what Warren Buffett got, they still want to see the only woman ceo in the entire oil and gas base. She took on big risks going up against carl icahn. It is the optics. Brooke i can see that and i get that and you want to root for her. Carl icahn did try to put four directors on the board this year and that failed. The question is whether investors have enough angst about this deal to buy into a slate. Obviously, a lot of dissatisfaction. This is clearly a bet on oil prices and that is not a lot of bet a lot of investors feel comfortable taking. Alix good stuff. Brooke sutherland of bloomberg opinion. Near and dear to my heart as well. Thank you very much, Romaine Bostick. Romaine happy to be here. If you missed romaine, he will be anchoring like 17 hours of program today. You can check them out anytime. Coming up, technically speaking. If youre heading out and jumping in your car, tune into bluebird xm gestured into Bloomberg Radio on sirius xm channel 119 and the cash tune into Bloomberg Radio on sirius tuneannel 119 and the into Bloomberg Radio on sirius xm channel 119 and the Bloomberg Business app. This is bloomberg. Alix time for technically speaking. We are giving you traits for the morning. Bill maloney, voice of bloomberg equities quad joints me now. Listen to bill all day on bloomberg. In squa fiveyear. Lvmh what you see . Bill they are buying tiffanys. Another sideways trading range in 2018. Another breakout. Youre in a longterm uptrend since early 2019, going higher ever since. Stocks in an uptrend. Alix how do you buy them at this point when the stock is up . Bill we are near record highs. As long as the trend is higher, momentum is there. Alix the next deal is novartis, that stock also up. What did you make here . Bill novartis is interesting. Another stock trading around the alltime high. It has been an uptrend since 2018, but look for resistance back to 2015. The recent peaks at 95. 91 to 95 swiss francs is your resistance. Uptrend but with resistance. Buying tdles Schwab Ameritrade at 26 billion. That deal was reported earlier last week. Youve seen a big gap up since then. Schwab lastk about week. Down 2 in the premarket on official news of the deal. We talked about it on thursday, resistance around 50, which is a retracement level. Now were are looking at support around 47, another retracement level. Below that, 45 which is the high before the gap on thursday. Alix how they resolve . Bill we do not know. Look for First Quarter 47. If we fade, you will close the gap at 45. Alix bill maloney of bloomberg. That does it for bloomberg daybreak. Coming up on the open, michael kuchma. Happy monday everybody. This is bloomberg. Hey. Hey. You must be stevens phone. Now you can take control of your home wifi and get a notification the instant someone new joins your network. Only with xfinity xfi. Download the xfi app today. Jonathan from new york city for our audience worldwide. Im jonathan ferro. The countdown to the open starts right now. Jonathan coming up, china increases ip theft penalties, addressing a Sticking Point in trade talk. German Business Confidence increasing. Hopes remain macro concerns will fade, taking pressure off of fed chair jay powell. Delivering a speech later this afternoon. Good morning. Here is your monday morning price action. We bounce back from a week of losses with a small day of gains. Futures up nine points on the s p 500. Up. 33 . In foreignexchange, muted price action. Eurodollar 1. 1016. 1. 77 is your yield on the u. S. 10 year. Lets begin with the big issue. Three weeks until another tariff deadline. December 15 is looming. China is signaling willingness to address a lot of the key u. S. Issues