Stronger as well. There was a story this afternoon that the brexit party has decided not to compete in a few more seats. That could help out boris johnson. That is likely to lead to a potential majority for boris johnson, the market is assuming. As a result of which, the pound is going higher. The german tenyear up a little bit today, moving up by a basis point. We are barely moving, to be honest. What we are seeing is a bit of a reversal of what had been a very solid week. Yields have been going down throughout the week when it comes to the bond market. A little caution coming into the trade narrative. Vonnie risk assets rallying. This partially after larry kudlow, white house Economic Advisor, signaled the u. S. And china are booking progress on trade negotiations, saying, we are coming down to the short strokes. We are speaking to them every single day. We are joined by bloomberg trade reporter shawn donnan. Anyone who gets that golf reference realizes the short strokes to the whole are the hard part to the hole are the hard part. Trickyk in that period now . Shawn on this phase i deal, they are still hashing out some of the final issues, including the details of chinese agricultural purchases, exactly what sort of intellectual property commitments they are going to make, and the timing of any potential tariffs rollback, or whether the u. S. Will do any rollbacks. We heard the u. S. Commerce secretary wilbur ross say this morning that ambassador robert lighthizer, the u. S. Trade representative, and treasury secretary Steve Mnuchin are getting on the phone today again the lou he with liu he, top chinese negotiator. The goal is to hash things out. The two sides have been working on this midnovember target, which initially was linked to the apec summit in chile that was due to take place this weekend. That is where the two leaders were going to sign this thing. That is not taking place anymore. They are still searching for a signing venue. Thats a lot that could go wrong here. We had false starts before. But right now, all signals are that we are in that end game. Guy is the biggest risk to a phase i deal what is happening in hong kong . A big that is definitely risk. The risk there is what happens in the u. S. Congress as a response to that. Theres a lot of senators on the republican side getting anxious about passing a bill that would allow the u. S. To review hong kongs special trade status. It is clear that a lot of trumps conservative base is following what is happening in hong kong incredibly closely. Theres a lot of china hawks in his administration, including Vice President mike pence, secretary of state mike pompeo. They have been critical of that as well. That could still mess things up, definitely. Vonnie thank you. That is bloombergs shawn donnan in washington, d. C. We are joined now by win thin, Brown Brothers harriman global head of currency strategy. In the hong kong story, it is getting more disruptive. Hong kong has fallen into a technical recession. But also, the peg. At one point it was only the likes of kyle bass saying that the peg could actually drop versus the u. S. Dollar. Im looking at a chart in the bloomberg, and i am curious, is it more likely now that we might see the hong kong peg go away . Win the short answer is no. There are a lot of things going on in hong kong that i dont know will happen, but the one thing i am absolutely sure of is that the hong kong peg will remain in place. It is ironclad. It is made to withstand much worse than we are seeing now. Insurvives the asian crisis 19971998. Theres not thats not to say there will not be pressure, but recently we have seen liquidity tightening in hong kong, and that is where the system works. As those rates rise, the hong kong dollar will be supported. So there will be a lot of volatility going into year end, i expect, but for now, all clear on the hong kong dollar. Vonnie how do you forecast what is going to happen with asian currencies in the next three to six months, given the amount of uncertainty there is regarding trade, and also hong kong, which surely has some kind of effect on other asian currencies . The stance isn that they are trying to separate the trade issue. You also have the muslim issue in western china. They are all separate issues that they dont want to muddy the waters. Right now the u. S. Administration is focused on getting a phase i deal done. That is a very positive for em. We had some fits and starts, but if you look at what the asset markets in em are telling you, a deal hasnt priced in that will remove tariffs. If we get some thing less than that, i think we get to another selling stage. But i think that is reasonable. Have changed. Electoral calendar has changed. I think they really feel they have the upper hand, and they are pushing. So mr. Trump be pushing back. What i think is very interesting is, if you thing about his rage tweets, it has priebus just dropped off. I think he realizes it is a very different game than six months ago. Guy if we dont get a phase i deal by the end of the fourth quarter, do we need to put the fed back and play . Win yes. Right now, i believe the fed eased off the gas pedal for two reasons. The trade tensions that have been building over the summer have eased over the last several weeks. The risks of a hard have been lowered. I think that is why the fed felt comfortable saying, given three cuts were 75 basis points, we are going to stop until we see a material reassessment of the circumstances. A reintensification of the trade war would certainly count is that. That is not my base case. I think we will get some sort of phase i deal done in q4, but if that changes, that would certainly count as aerial reassessment. The fed has to start thinking about the or the market will have to start taking about the fed cutting rates again. In q4 we are running about 1 growth on the new york and atlanta fed models, half of what we saw in q3, but still far from recession. I am looking at a slowdown that we will recover, but betrayed solution is a part of this puzzle. Guy if we dont get a phase i deal by the end of q1, is that a trigger for the chinese to deliver the big stimulus weve been anticipating . The data are getting worse and worse, yet they resist. To the point, if we get end of this quarter and theres nothing done, is that the point the chinese pull the trigger . Win i dont think so. To me, that would be a sign of weakness. I think they want to continue with this very targeted stimulus. They dont want to show any panicking. That would give credence to the u. S. Hawks that china really is hurt and thats really is hurting, and they are ready to given. Hawks that china really is hurting, and they are ready to give in. Previousas the commentator said, it is really just getting to this end game. A lot of headline risk ahead. Theres a lot of noise, but the signal as they are moving towards a phase i deal. Guy stick around. Win thin, Brown Brothers harriman global head of currency strategy, is going to stay with us. Lets check in on the bloomberg first word news with ritika gupta. Ritika the former u. S. Ambassador to ukraine is testifying today on day two of the public beach met hearings. Marie yovanovitch public impeachment hearings. Marie yovanovitch was removed in may by President Trump. She was called back to washington after a campaign by the president and his allies. You fun of it lacks direct yovanovitch lacks direct knowledge of the call but would President Trump and the ukraine president. Auto dealers and gas stations lead the way, and there were declines in clothing and furniture stores. In southern california, investigators are trying to determine why a 16yearold boy pulled out a gun and opened fire in a crowded schoolyard. Two students were killed and three wounded before the shooter turned the gun on himself. Hes in critical condition. Democratic president ial candidate Elizabeth Warren says businesses have nothing to worry about if shes elected as long as they are honest. Warren says she believes in market rules that consistently enforce her proposal for a wealth tax, medicare for all, tech thatng up big have concerned wall street. Global news 24 hours a day, on air and tictoc on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. To imk a group ritika gupta. This is bloomberg. Guy coming up a little later on this program, our exclusive view with the airbus ceo on how tariffs are affecting the bottom line. This is bloomberg. Live from new york, im vonnie quinn. Guy from london, im guy johnson. This is bloomberg markets. Here with the details, add go to little. Abigail theres a bit of a risk on to abigail doolittle. Abigail theres a bit of a risk on tone to the markets. Finishing at a record closing high yesterday take a look at where the index is, well above 3100. It seems as though the bulls are going to continue marching forward. Perhaps continued gains, rising less in europe, the stoxx 600. Really outperforming, take a look at the chip sector. About the sox up about 1 . Raised estimates on both the top and bottom line for the fiscal First Quarter. What makes this so important, beyond the fact that analysts are happy with it, this is a company that makes the equip it that makes the chips, so it is seen as an early tell. Perhaps the downturn we have seen in chips, this is a solid sign that that downturn is coming to an end. You can see all sorts of other Chip Companies rising on that. Multiweek setve a of gains for the major averages in the u. S. Take a look at this. These are the yeartodate weekly moves from the dow, the s p 500, and the nasdaq. Lots of volatility this year. Big moves to the upside and downside. The s p 500 up more than 20 , on pace for its best year since 2013. Right now, the s p 500 up for yet another week in the row, the longest winning streak for the s p 500 going back to 2014. The bulls back in charge. Vonnie in the grind higher continues. Thank you. We are back with win thin, Brown Brothers harriman global head of currency strategy. When we were talking about the china phase i part of the deal, what happens with the yuan . How closely is it tied to negotiations . Win one thing the chinese have been clear about is that they were not going to open eyes the yuan. People think they have fixed the marketronger than forces would dictate. We had that huge eem selloff over the summer. I run a correlation on your bloomberg system between c and y spot and msci between cny spot and msci. The correlations have really risen. That tells me that, despite all the criticism about chinese currency policy, policy, policymakers that actually allowed to the yuan to trade with more market forces. We had a period of weakness for em that translated to weaker yuan. They are not weaponizing it. I see it continuing to trade with the wider em. Vonnie how closely our other Asian Countries watching what is going on . If you look at your to date emergingmarket currencies and how they performed, apart from the russian ruble, it is really the asian currencies that must be benefiting from this straight narrative, right . The thai baht up, the philippine peso, the indonesian were p a rupiah, and son and so on. But i think is interesting to me is that u. S. China trade was more than just those countries. Theres so much collateral damage. Take a look at germany. Very export driven. The number one export archivist china. Germany has been suffering greatly. These tradeins is not just good for the u. S. And china, but really for the global economy. The imf has been harping on this, rightly so. That wehe optimist camp are slowly crawling toward the resolution, which i think is beneficial for the global economy. Guy the dax has gone up in germany because of the trade narrative, but the euro hasnt. Does the euro only go up when germany delivers fiscal policy . Win you know, i think policymakers in the euro zone are really at a loss of what to do. Weve had negative rates there, qe for years and years, and yet many of the countries are struggling. Yes, fiscal stimulus is the missing piece, and thats always been the problem with the euro zone. We have a Monetary Union without a fiscal union. We talked about this for years and years. We thought the euro crisis would push the eu towards more fiscal, but we had nothing really to give can. Prize running the current budget. They prize saving overspending. Emergency yet. We have bringing yellow lights come about the red lights are not flashing at. I would say stay tuned. For now, the weaker euro is the one lever they can push to get some stimulus, and that is the easy one. Guy Christine Lagarde delivers her first major policy speak in the latter part of next week. If the u. S. Consumer holds up, does the dollar hold up . Win absolutely. I think the fed has made it very clear. The economy is in a good place. Policy is in good place. We have some risks. Those have ebbed in the last several weeks. We will wait and see. Right now, the u. S. Consumer really is what is firing on all cylinders in the u. S. Manufacturing we know is in a recession. The fear was that the many factoring recession would spread to the wider economy. There has been some data that suggests that is happening. Again, it all boils down to all roads lead back to the trade war. Fed policy, u. S. Global growth, everything is back to the trade war ending and alleviating. I hate to sound like johnny one note, but that is really what we have to look at. Guy stay with us. Win thin, Brown Brothers harriman global head of currency strategy. We are still going to talk a bit more about what is happening in the Foreign Exchange market. Lets go to capitol hill to talk about what is happening there. Former u. S. Ambassador to ukraine Marie Yovanovitch is currently giving testimony. She was removed from her post in ukraine back in may by president donald trump. He will be tweeting about her this morning, and not saying nice things. This is bloomberg. President trump true . No. Was the allegation you had created a do not prosecute list to get to the prosecutor general in ukraine true . Now. In fact no. In fact, didnt the corrupt prosecutor general later were campus allegations . Yes. Guy from london, im guy johnson. Vonnie from new york, im vonnie quinn. This is bloomberg markets. Larry kudlow saying phase i of the china trade deal is down to the short strokes. Here to discuss how this affects etfs and flows is james seyffart. How have etfs and flows reacted . James unsurprisingly, flows have followed headlines and what is going on with the trade deal. Earlier this year when trump was delaying deadlines, we saw money trickle in. He started ramping up rhetoric and tariffs, we saw money flow and pour out of chinese etfs. China started talking about retaliating tariffs. More money poured out. Then money started to trickle in as there was talk of a deal again. Guy lets talk about which etf this works for an which etfs this doesnt work for. James this is basically good for the u. S. Equity markets a emerging markets, equity markets in general. Up until this year, we seen risk off sentiment through august, where fixed income etf were dominating over equity etfs. That doesnt happen very often at all. Basically we are seeing a changing of the tide. Etfs arent benefiting from this. Weve seen gold etfs, treasury etfs, low and mid vol etfs dominating, and performance has been pretty good for them. Vol has taken and more assets than pretty much anything else in the etf land scape. All three of those categories for the first time all year saw outflow in november, so we are seeing a change of sentiment to a little more risk on. The other thing is a trade war etf that basically tries to invest in companies that can handle trade war policies the best, so this is obviously a bad thing for that etf, performance wise. Vonnie flows generally this week, however they been . James flows this week have been pretty positive, but if you look at specifically the performance of different chinese etfs, theyve been taking in money. We expect money to poor in if this deal does get done, but you need to be careful which etfs you are investing in. If you look at different chinese etfs, the fxi has vastly underperformed the s p 500, but if you look at the hshare market, it has outperformed the s p 500. We expect those funds to be top of mind over the coming days. Vonnie all right. Guy lets wrap it up. James, nice work. Of bloombergt intelligence with all of the etf news. Vonnie amazon is going to legal war with the pentagon. It will file a lawsuit challenging the Defense Department decision to award a 10 billion Cloud Computing contract to microsoft. Amazon says the process was tainted by bias. Some lawmakers question whether President Trump unfairly intervened. Hes been at odds with amazon ceo jeff bezos, who also owns the washington post. Qantas flew a test flight for the worlds longest commercial service, this time from london to sydney on a boeing 787. It was 19 hours 19 minutes. The new york to sydney flight was three minutes shorter. Scientists are trying to find out the impact of such long flights on the crew and passengers. That is your latest Bloomberg Business flash. Guy lets check where the markets are. Clearly, the trade is the big focus today. We are watching what is happening as we apparently get closer and closer to that phase one deal. Risk on today, returning towards the back end of the week. Dow and s p up by 0. 4 . Nasdaq outperforming slightly from the chip stocks, and that vol trade keeps going down and down. This is bloomberg. Vonnie live from new york, im vonnie quinn. Guy from london, im guy johnson. This is bloomberg markets. , second day of public hearings underway with the former u. S. Ambassador to ukraine testifying. Joining us with the latest from capitol hill come a Kevin Cirilli, bloombergs chief washington correspondent. One overlearning from investor ovitch . Kevin Marie Jovanovich testifying, saying that she felt. Hreatened she also testified that she feels her ousting by President Trump in may was a hit at morale at the state department, as well as the double lets all around the world. President trump having a busy morning as it relates to the impeachment inquiry. Hey has released a previous phone call he had with ukraine alsodent zelensky, and he issued a tweet in which he acked or jovanovichs attacked Marie Jovanovichs could ability Marie Yovanovitchs credibility. Everywhere Marie Jovanovich went to turn to bad. She started out since amalia. How did that go . Fast forward to ukraine, where the new ukrainian president spoke unfavorably about here in my second phone call with him. Vonnie the memorandum for that first phone call was released. What did we learn from that, and what is washington saying about this particular memorandum . Kevin in the threepage memorandum that was released earlier this morning by the white house, as President Trump signaled he would do earlier this week, we learned that the president had been invited by ukraine president zelensky to attend his inauguration. The president took this phone call shortly after zelensky was elected into office. They shared a brief phone call. At one point, the president also said he was fond of ukraine. He mentioned his pageant that he had been in charge of prior to becoming president , said that he had good interactions with ukrainians. But again, no real bombshell in that original phone call. Still, the call in question is that second phone call in july. Vonnie briefly, what should we expect from the rest of the day and into next week on capitol hill . Kevin the hearings continue. This hearing is still very much underway. Next week, another round of hearings as more state Department Officials are set to testify. The investigation is now in its public phase. In terms of a timeline, it is looking increasingly likely that, should articles of impeachment be brought to the house floor, the senate would take this up in a six to eight week trial, according to republicans in the senate. That puts this well into the First Quarter of next calendar year. Vonnie kevin, thank you. That is bloombergs Kevin Cirilli on capitol hill for us. Lets check in on the first word news. Heres riddick a group that heres ritika gupta. Ritika the u. S. Is close to a phase one will with china, but it is not there yet. Thataccording to is according to white house Economic Advisor larry kudlow. The two sides have been holding videoconferences on the issues. Issues, purchases of American Farm products and theft of and left for property. Theft of tote intellectual property. Months of protests have taken their toll on hong kong. The government says gdp will contract 1. 3 in 2019 from last year. Streets, stores and restaurants are either nonopec suppliers are expected to rise by 2. 3 Million Barrels a day in 2020. That is almost twice the expansion in world oil demand. For a football, get ready heavy duty suspension. At the end of the game last night, Clevelands Myles Garrett ripped the helmet off of a quarterback and hit him with it. That led to an allout brawl, which resulted in three ejections. Yet when we will hear from the nfl. Global news 24 hours a day, on air and tictoc on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. Gupta. Ika this is bloomberg. Vonnie thank you. We are back with wins in, Brown Brothers hemp with win win thin,th with Brown Brothers harriman global head of currency strategy. Win base case, we get some sort of easing of trade tensions, tariffs come off. Not just suspended. We need to see tariffs come off. The chances of her session to fall. Since the of recession continued to fall. Which wasield curve, inverted over most of the summer, has moved back to positive territory. Inverted yield curve predicted all nine of the recessions we have seen. We had one false signal in the mid1960s when it inverted, and a slow down, but no recession. The inversion we had over the summer very closely risibles that. That is what falls into my call for a slow down, but no recession. Vonnie so the dollar index, for do we stay in that range . Win we had a big selloff and retraced about half of that selloff. We havent been able to get through it. I think we need some more news. I think what took some of the air out of that was the rumblings last week, beebe the week before, that we were hitting some sticking points. Hoping for some substantial signals so we can break higher and move into a higher range. Now we are sort of range bound. Guy given the risks we face in the world right now, the list is a very long one. . Hy is fx volatility so low why is equity market volatility so low . Do you see it changing . Up to me, that has come many times since the financial crisis. The debate is, are we in a cyclical period of reduced volatility . Are we in a secular decline . I fall into the more cyclical camp. We are coming out of an unprecedented period of zero or negative rates in many parts of the world. Believe it or not, 11 years after the crisis, we are still muddling through and trying to normalize policy. We still havent gotten there yet. Think market munitions are not normal. We are in subnormal, abnormally low inflation, interest rates, etc. I dont think we are there permanently, but it will take much longer to call back. Deep andells you how substantial the Great Recession was back in 2008. The good news i tell clients is the big debate, to me, it is not when we it is not if we go into the next recession. It is really when. When is it going to be . I think we are pretty safe through most of 2020. 2020 one we have to start to worry because we are going to be in our 12th year. News illy, the good think is that we are going to be a normal, runofthemill recession. We are not going to go into another Great Recession. Ink has been spilled, but stay calm. Can handle this. Guy you talked about what happened with the Great Recession and the policy response subsequent to that. That policy response has basically taken Monetary Policy to the limits of what is achievable. We are certainly seeing that with the ecb. Steam lagarde next week, Christine Lagarde next week, very much calling for a fiscal response. Jay powell talking about the u. S. Debt situation and the fact that it has to be managed because, when the next downturn comes, we are going to need fiscal policy to compensate for some of the weakness we are seeing in Monetary Policy. If Monetary Policy is done reaching the limits of what is possible, is the 30 year bull market in bonds also done . If so, what are the impatiens of that for your world the implications of that for your world . Win but i give credit for during the crisis is they acted quickly and aggressively. We went to zero rates very quickly, started qe very quickly , gave several other rounds of qe. We were sort of first in, first out. My one complaint is they probably waited too long, until 2015, to start hiking rates. Thats a good seven plus years. Did the u. S. Really need that sort of low for that long . I would say no. But look, policymakers in general are really flying with one eye blind. We are trying to figure it out the new reality and how to normalize policy when price pressures remain solo. Again, i think the u. S. Was right to use fiscal policy aggressively. I quibble with the fact that we had the tax cut back in 2017. I every with what you were implying earlier, that with the economy already running at 2 , we didnt need another shot a fiscal stimulus. We should have probably save that for another time. Will germany ever start on this . I hope so. I have to agree, we already have negative rates. What more can we do . So another round of qe just started last month. It isnt really going to do anything. Eyes willre and more go back to the fiscal side. To kuroda at the boj mr. Kuroda at the boj also highlighted that. Japan is struggling with its fiscal profile. Over there, it is perhaps not the best example. Vonnie we have to leave it there, but thank you for spinning so much time with us today. , head of win thin currency strategy for Brown Brothers harriman. Coming up, the 13f filings. This is bloomberg. Vonnie the latest read on u. S. Money managers positioning is out, with hedge funds filing their Third Quarter 13fs. We should note these are not a full picture of what happened. They are even misleading, potentially, but we know something for sure. Sonali as you said, it is a lagging indicator, but our Hedge Fund Team has poured through all the data. Billions were spent on alibaba, despite the trade war tensions. Viking, the tiger, chase . Definitely a lot of chase coleman. Definitely a lot of names. Tech names were pretty popular. Guy lets talk about those. Facebook,ig, but also microsoft, netflix. Sonali facebook was the biggest trade for harvard management. We are watching endowments and family offices. While facebook and ethics were and netflixs were still big trades, we also saw uber for the Second Period in a row be a fan favorite, even after a significant it this year significant dip this year. We did see some selling, but still on average a favorite. Microsoft, also for the Second Quarter in a row, was a big sell. Guy great stuff as ever. Thank you very much indeed. Sonali vasek joining us on the akth sonali bas joining us with the 13fs. Abigail doolittle has more details. Abigail this is a very important report because Applied Materials is not just a chip company. They are a semicap equipment to money. They make the equipment that makes the chips, so it is seen on a leading tell for what is ahead for the chip sector. Chips has been up chips have been in a bit of a downturn, so this is very encouraging. As for the fiscal fourthquarter, they beat both top and bottom line estimates. They also raised estimates for the fiscal First Quarter, and in a big way relative to sales. They are guiding for the First Quarter to 4. 1 billion versus the street at 3. 7 trillion at 3. 7 billion. Evercore isi is saying this beat is much better than expected. Other analysts saying that valuation leaves some room for this stock to run. If we go quickly into the bloomberg, the stock is having a great year, along with some of the other cap equipping companies. The other cap equipping companies. One of their competitors, lam research, up more than 100 on the year. In the bloomberg, we will see the analyst price target relative to the stock. The stock is in white, the average closer to 65. Per the analyst price target with the stock doing so well, it suggests theres more room to run. One analysts saying valuation to 80 permat up share. Vonnie we shall see. Thank you for that breakdown. Guy lets talk about the european playmaker airbus european playmaker airbus, facing a fair few challenges. Lots of uncertainty out there. Geopolitical tension, potential tariffs. Francine lacqua and i caught up with guillaume faury, the ceo of this business. Take a listen to what he had to say. Guillaume so far it is too early to say. It is an important, but still part of the global market. No big impact for the moment, but we think it could slow down the aviation business, and therefore we are waiting to resolution on those tariffs. Francine when will we see a decision on the possible aid to boeing . May or june of next year guillaume may or june of next year. Guy are you covering the cost of the tariffs with your customers at this point . You say youre not seeing that much effect yet. If that because youre covering the costs . Guillaume the tariffs are import duties, so that is the situation. We are managing the situation with our customers. Guy does that mean you are compensating them . Guillaume i dont want to go weo the arrangement have with customers. Basically, on the longterm basis, this is unsustainable. We have to find a way forward. It is not sustainable for both sides of the atlantic. It is an ecosystem. We deliver planes to the u. S. Resolutionfind a that avoids the loselose of the trade war between europe and the u. S. Francine both sides what the resolution. Guillaume two to tango. I thing it is going to be the case moving forward, especially in may or june, where the rebalancing will take place. Guy lets talk a little bit about brexit. Do you see airbus moving production out of the u. K. , regardless of the political trade deal that ends up getting done . Guillaume we have a very Strong Industrial base and technical base in the u. K. We are very happy with what we have. We are mainly manufacturing the wings of all airbus planes in the u. K. , around bristol, and we are very competitive. So brexit is a risk. Theres no opportunity in the brexit. Short tomb risk is on it shortterm risk is on a new deal brexit that could have a lot of disruption for supply chains. On the longterm, we really hope and believe that the ecosystem will end up competitive come of the u. K. Will continue to have commercial trade relationship with the eu. Uncertainty is a problem for us. Investors,gterm and i would not like to be in a situation where we would have to make a very important Investment Decision now with so much uncertainty. For airbus, like for other industries, what is very important is to regain trust him of his ability moving forward. Francine would you move production out of the u. K. Regardless of what happens with brexit . Guillaume no. We had a very strong base in the u. K. We are happy. Theres no reason to move production out of the u. K. It would be externally difficult. If you visit the plant will remain effect or the wings, it is a huge industry. It would be eight or mentis cost to move them. At the moment it would be a tremendous cost to move them. At the moment, where do we do this investment . Francine if this deal goes through, and we dont know because there are elections december 12, but what do you need in the future relationship between the u. K. And the eu to be happy . Guillaume the Withdrawal Agreement on the table is a way to shorten the hurdle of the brexit itself. Then the longterm relationship between the eu and the u. K. Still has to be defined. So theres a lot of work to be done after the brexit to the find a longterm relationship between the eu on the u. K. , and that thereot of hope would be a relationship between the u. K. And the eu. We are trying to play our role in explaining what is necessary to have this longterm ecosystem that keeps going because we like this ecosystem. It is very competitive. Guy the airbus Ceo Guillaume Faury speaking to francine and me a little earlier on today. Vonnie coming up, oil heading for a weekly loss. Andng crude inventories signals that Global Markets will stay supplied. We will talk about that any moment. This is bloomberg. Vonnie time for futures in focus. Lets bring in ted seyfried from the cme. Agricultural purchases are still a sticking point. How are the grains reacting . Reporter when we first heard that news two days ago, soybeans took that very poorly, especially the timing of it. It happened 15 minutes before soybeans closed. We dropped seven cents and ruin what would have been a good day on the chart. Since then, weve been kind of shrugging that off because, when you look at the soybean carryover higher than what we were expecting in june and july, we might not have all the soybeans for china if they do get a trade deal and wanted to come in by more for us and if they wanted to come and buy more from us. I think theres upside potential for the soybeans because we have underfunded mental factors that are really very positive at the moment. Vonnie on oil, it seems like a triple way me today. The iea is talking about Oil Production remaining elevated. Pumpingopec pope we have opec pumping so many barrels a day. Is it all uphill from here pricewise . Ted i am taking that might be the case. We have been trying to get up and over this 200 a moving average. 57. 50 is a key number for december crude oil. We need to close above that to justify more strength to the upside, but i dont know if it is going to happen. A 2 million barrel increase for the third week in a row. We are 10 billion over the fiveyear average. Theres a lot of negative factors coming into force for crude oil at this point. We just cant get that fundamental push to get the charts to look better, so i think we are due for a bit of a setback. Vonnie ted, thank you for joining us this friday. At the ted seifried chicago cme. Guy 35 minutes away from the end of trading this friday here in europe. Those are the u. S. Numbers, and fact. The s p up by 0. 5 . We are above the 31 have a level the 3100 level. The dax and the cac up, but the euro is having a pretty positive afternoon as well. Countdown to the close next. This is bloomberg. Here, it all starts with a simple. Hello hi how can i help . A data plan for everyone. Everyone . Everyone. Lets send to everyone [ camera clicking ] wifi up there . Ahhh. Sure, why not . Howd he get out . a camera might figure it out. That was easy glad i could help. At xfinity, were here to make life simple. Easy. Awesome. So come ask, shop, discover at your xfinity store today. Guy stocks move higher as the white house signals progress on phase one, but wheres the deal . The u. K. Labour party says it will fund broadband infrastructure if it wins the election. A cautionary message to leaders around the world. We are now counting you down to the european close on bloomberg markets. Vonnie u. S. Markets going higher once again today. Another 0. 5 move for the s p hundred on some earnings, some filings,ng, and 13f and some better headlines on trade yet again. That has the 10 year down to 1. 82 . A couple of those earnings and 13f filings, restoration hardware. Warren buf