Index is up 1 today as well. Key banks saying memory chipmakers are possibly on the rebound come so that has some rallying today. So that has semis rallying today. Its get to our guest, Charles Dumas of ts lombard. What will mario draghi announced tomorrow . Charles i think he will come through with some further 10 basis point move may be on the negative rates, from 42 50. 40 to 50, and with tiering on the banks. That is the important thing. Theres also likely to be a revisiting of quantitative sing, for which theres about , yeorth of scope Something Like 30 billion a month. Vonnie weve been hearing from strategists and economists that say there is really not much that that kind of easing will do, that that kind of stimulus, and even earlier on, our guest took exception to the word stimulus, saying this is not going to stimulate european economy. Charles i dont think it does. I think your guest was correct. The basic point is for 10 years now, or at least since 2011, the euro zone has run a fiscal tightening and monetary loosening, and theyve reached the end of the road in terms of the impact of that. In particular, the inflation target is a bit of a farce because theres no particular reason for inflation in europe, and trying to get inflation up seems inherently perverse. If you are running on Monetary Policy come of the normal thin you might expect to affect is gdp, which is a compound of inflation and growth. What people are really concerned with his growth, so focusing purely on inflation is sort of indirect and unnecessary. Vonnie youre talking about changing the entire mandate of the European Central bank. If that is the right thing to do, it is not going to happen, right . We had the debate in the United States as well. Targeting Something Else is just not going to happen in the near term. Charles no it is not. That is quite right. That is why what gets announced tomorrow will be thoroughly ineffective. There are some respects in which socalled easing actually german demand because savers, for example, tend to put their money in the bank. If they are saving with a view for retirement, they have some idea about a standard of living they want to maintain. The extent that negative rates it even more negative in real terms, they have to save more, both because they need a larger with,um to buy annuity but also they have to save more in the interim because the pension fund they are building up has a negative yield in it. So negative rates, to the extent they become more negative come actually encouraged germans to save more. That in turn means that they reduce demand, which is the opposite of what a stimulus is supposed to do. Vonnie given that we cant change the European Central bank mandate at this point, is there an argument for fiscal stimulus out of germany . Charles yes, of course there is, but the germans have a socalled that break, which is socalled debt break, which is to say the constitutional amendment says they should not an deficits unless there is emergency declared by the bundestag. I dont see very much sign that the bundestag is about to declare an emergency. We all have our favorite candidates for the sort of emergency they might try to declare in order to spend a bit of money for a change. Somethings case is like Climate Change, for example. They could just decide they wanted to do something on that front. Say,natively, they could as a matter of fact, the best way of getting Climate Change to stop happening at such a rate is , and that carbon tax would enable them to reduce taxes elsewhere. There are quite a lot of things they could do on the fiscal front, but no one is expecting anything urgent soon. Vonnie right. Really, everything seems to be quite gloomy, if anything mario draghi does is not going to help on term, and we are not expecting the germans to do anything longterm. I think they are in recession at the moment. Gdp is down in the Second Quarter and probably in the third quarter. Rather more likely than not, we will be down in the Fourth Quarter a bit, too, so that is clearly a recession. It is not a massive downswing. It is not the end of the world with any kind of respect. In due course, trade will pick up at some stage, and germany will pick up with it. The fact is that structurally, they are now unbelievably, excessively dependent on exports and world trade, and that i beginning to count against them. Vonnie what makes you so convinced that world trade will pick up . We are seeing overtures from china to the u. S. Today, but generally speaking, the tone on trade is not going in the way of increased trade globally. Charles when i looked at the german orders numbers that came out last friday, the noneuro up, andort orders were they were up for a pretty good reason. When we did a recalculation that we do every quarter on chinese gdp, we found that chinese domestic demand was reasonably strong in the Second Quarter. Thatasic point here is inventory liquidation in china was massive in the First Quarter and at the end of last year, but slightly less in the Second Quarter, which means more of the growth of demand was being satisfied from new products rather than from inventory. China inventory cycle in looks as if it is turning a bit. Vonnie charles, stay with us. We have lots more to discuss. Charles dumas is ts lombards chief economist. Lets check Global Markets now. Heres out go to local. Abigail it has been eight heres abigail doolittle. Abigail its been a choppy week, but we have moderately solid gains around the week. The s p 500 and the nasdaq higher. Tech leading the way. The german dax sharply higher. Take a look at the emerging market index, up abou 0. 9 , so it is a risk on day. All said, look at this. Over the last three days, the of three days, these are the futures. Flat, up about 0. 2 . We finally have bonds no longer selling off. We had a five day backup for bonds. The biggest for the 10 year yield going back to november 2016. Right now, you can see that the german tenyear and 30 year are both lower, telling you haven bonds in germany are rallying. That is true, too, in the u. S. A bit of a relief for investors. It is not something that you always see. Those yields shooting higher were concerning investors for a while. That was pressuring the momentum space, but not as much today. The momentum etf is slightly red right now. Earlier, it had been up a little bit. Tech helping out. Now it is one of the top sectors on the day. All week, weve had value doing quite well. That is true once again today, up more than 1 several days in a row. A piece of that action, the energy sector. Take a look at that, up 1 . Overall today, shaping up as risk on. Vonnie abigail doolittle, thank you for that. Now we want to bring you back to ground zero in lower manhattan. Pictures the immediate. It is 18 years since the 9 11 terror attacks on the United States. The victims are being were memory as their names are read out. That continues. There is a wreath laying ceremony taking place later, with former president george bush in attendance as well. This is bloomberg. Vonnie live from new york, im vonnie quinn. This is the european close on bloomberg markets. Lets check in with the bloomberg first word news. Heres courtney donohoe. Courtney the Hong Kong Stock Exchange has made an unexpected offer for the london Stock Exchange. The bid could be seen as a potential takeover from china. U. K. s business secretary tells bloomberg the government will look at anything that has security applications. Are antitrust regulators investigating whether amazon is using its market power to hurt competition. A team of federal trade Commission Investigators began interviewing Small Businesses that sell products on amazon. Bloomberg has learned the interviews suggest the agency is skeptical about amazons claims shoppers and suppliers have real alternatives. China announced a range of u. S. Goods it will exempt from tariffs put in place last year, but it is keeping the pressure on american farmers. It will not be lifting the tariffs on products such as soybeans and pork, placed to retaliate on tariffs placed on chinese goods. President trump commemorated 9 11 by placing a wreath at the pentagon. He spoke to survivors and those whose relatives died there. Pres. Trump we come here any knowledge that we cannot a race the pain cannot erase the il ofor undo the ev that dark day, but we offer you have. At we our undying devotion and our eternal pledge that your loved ones will never, ever be forgotten. Courtney at the World Trade Center here in new york, family members gathered to read the names of those killed in the attacks. Never forget. Global news 24 hours a day, on air and at tictoc on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. Donohoe. Ney this is bloomberg. Vonnie thank you. Dumas,ith us is charles ts lombard chief economist, london. Us from im interested in your thoughts on how brexit has proceeded in the last week or two, and what happens next. What is your Current Base Case . Charles well, right now weve just had a little bit of news today in that the scottish the closuredeclared of parliament until the middle of next month is illegal. What the consequences of that will be i sibley dont know, and nor does anyone else i simply dont know, and nor does anyone else. What is clear is we are headed towards some electoral solution because parliament cant resolve this issue either way. They havent been able to specify what they really do want. Theyve been pretty clear about what they dont want, which is a if brexitexit, but happens and there is no deal, then youve had a no deal brexit. The moment, things are scheduled to end on october 31, sayshe law passed recently that mr. Johnson has to make an application to have that extended. Just exactly whether or not that law is entirely enforceable remains to be seen, and the fact that it is enforceable or whether it is enforceable will be something that the government tries to test. Vonnie i want to point out that an official has told bloomberg that in spite of that court ruling in scotland, the legislature will remain suspended pending an appeal of that ruling kisses bring court that ruling to the supreme court. What happens to the british meantime . The we talk about stagnation and stasis in 70 different areas, from trade to inflation targeting in europe to Monetary Policy, and now brexit. What happens . Charles the first thing to register is the fact that the british economy over the last not onlyexpanded faster than germany, but quite a bit faster than france, which is not so restrained as germany because it is not so export dependent. I think things arent quite as bad as you might think. It is only fair to say that from my standpoint as a purely analytical matter, i think that brexit is a significantly less important than most people imagine. Vonnie are we seeing better data out of britain because some gdp growth is being pulled forward . People are spending because they are uncertain about what is going to happen next, and perhaps there is a mood element to it, too. Will britain suffer from this incoming quarters when we know the outcome suffer from this in coming quarters when we know the outcome . Charles in short, the answer is no because certainly there is a little to stockpiling going on at the moment, which is people who want to make sure they still have toilet paper if there is a no deal brexit, so theres a little bit of that kind of thing. Verys a matter of fact, large numbers of transactions are to some degree being put on hold, or at least postponed, because people are uncertain about brexit. So it is much more likely, actually, that when nothing is settled, and was perhaps a short delay, there will be a significant upsurge in activity. Vonnie charles, explain to me because it seems slightly counterintuitive. Maybe i am just not getting something you are saying. You seem to be gloomy on the outlook for europe, pretty gloomy on the outlook for the u. S. , but pretty optimistic britain. Is that right . Charles that is right. The fundamental reality is that british assets, in particular sterling itself, have been pulled down very significantly by people worried about this no deal brexit, and to a limited extent, people are worried about a socialist government under Jeremy Corbyn if labour wins the general election, but actually, these are very small chances of happening. , but a lot of now transactions, particularly in property and real estate, but more generally, have been put on hold because of this brexit uncertainty, and when the matter is resolved, they will go out there and do whatever it is they want to do. Vonnie well, we look forward to that day. Charles, thank you for joining us. Charles dumas, ts lombard chief economist. Morgan stanley Ceo James Gorman says he is surprised at the current level of interest rates. He also warns that the fed should be cautious in its approach to rates in the current economic climate. Jasonke with bloombergs kelly and carol massar in new york. Lows we have record unemployment. China is still performing strongly. Europe is obviously mixed, but its been mixed for two decades now. So at one level, the fundamentals are actually quite strong. At the other level, the sense of confidence, there is a sense of inevitability we are at the end of a cycle. It doesnt have to be. Statistically, there is a recession every seven years. But it doesnt have to be. In australia, they havent had a recession for 28 years in a row. Carol why is there so much pressure, then, on the Federal Reserve to continue to cutting rates . Does that make sense . James because the economy is slowing. Rates when feather the economy is getting hot. Her job is to raise rates, slow it down, and the reverse. I suspect they will be one or two more. But then it is time for a pause and really absorb this. The problem with cutting is it is one of the few tools youve got. If you give it away too easily, what do you have if we have a real problem . Jason i want to go back to what you said a minute ago about squaring some of the elements out there, specifically this and this is that seymour cautious with a consumer that that seem more cautious with a consumer that doesnt seem cautious at all. How do you talk to your customers, and what do you see that could help explain that dichotomy . James we are in a bit of an echo chamber. If you are a business leader, you go to Business Leadership meetings. We bounce a lot of it off of each other, so the thinking is, gee, we must be at the end of the cycle. Weve had an inverted yield highlywhich has been productive of a recession. Highly productive of a recession. There are some evidence that things are likely to slow down at some point. I dont think theres any doubt about that. So thinking about Capital Investment over multiple years, you would be prudent in being cautious at this point. Consumers arent yet experiencing that. Theyve got very cheap debt. Housing is starting to recover. Sheet ismer balance still very strong, and that is why it is lagging where the consumer isnt. Vonnie that was james gorman speaking with jason kelly and carol massar at columbia business school. In an epic industry shift, the balance of shower shifting to passive from active. Assets in mutual funds and etfs tracking equity index is 4. 271 trillion. This is bloomberg. Vonnie some headlines now from the Morgan Stanley conference in laguna beach, where boeings ceo is speaking. Boeing stock is rising on the session. Returnstill targeting of service for its max, and sees a phased ungrounding around the world. Dennis muilenburg says he sees the crisis as a defining moment and notes that they still face open questions with the faa. Max upgrades are being tested in labs, and he doesnt see independent reviews slowing become back of the max. Once again, boeing still targeting the early Fourth Quarter returned to service for the max. It has flown more than 600 flights with updated software. Stock is really taking a leg higher now, up 2. 7 . Checking u. S. Markets broadly, we are shaving off some gains, but still higher on the session, with the dow and the s p up 0. 3 , and the nasdaq up 0. 6 . Gains, too, in europe. 0. 7 ,x in germany is up the cac 40 up 0. 4 , and the ftse 100 powering up. The european close is next. This is bloomberg. Vonnie stocks finishing up the day in european trading. It was probably an update. Quite positive for most of the major markets, including germany, britain, and france. A small decline in spain and iceland. Generally a positive day. Lets have a look at the individual markets. The ftse 100 of 1 . The dax in germany up two thirds. 7 . Toxx 600 up gains in industrials. Lets have a look at our next board. The german 10 year yield, 57 basis points. It has been around the 55 basis point mark. This before the ecb policy decision tomorrow. Froms aware a ways away where we were at negative seven 70. Lots of china overtures to the United States making it look like trade is on a better footing. Brent crude trading at 62. 15. It has had about. Lets look at the sectors in the s p that are trading higher. Primarily onvices the lse potential deal. The hong kong board is looking to buy the lse. Travel and chemicals, although sectors higher. Most every sector is higher. Just small declines for the auto parts sector and also oil and gas. We are talking about shaving off some of the previous sessions gains. Lets get to the United States and see where we are trading here. Some positive sentiment today. We are trading a little bit off the highs. The s p 500, 2990. The dollar index continues to strengthen. , memory chip demand coming back sometime soon and the back ofx up on those memory chipmakers. We can see we have going up to point boeing up 2. 8 . Bloomberg speaking at the conference in laguna beach, california and ingesting some positivity into the return of the boeing 737 max 8. More than 600 flights have taken place with the max new software and all is going well and that front. He says theyre all open questions with the faa but solace inoadly taking Dennis Muilenburg comments. That is a look at Global Markets. Now lets get back to one of our big stories, Hong Kong Stock Exchange making a 33. 6 billion dollar offer for the london Stock Exchange group, potentially upending the lse acquisition of data provider refinity. Joining us is Gina Martin Adams. This is one of the stories moving stocks today but it would be a massive deal. Gina it is indicative of the broader climate which has been poured lower Trading Volume structuring, lower spreads in general, higher correlations across Asset Classes which has made it difficult for the exchanges. The best prospect for forward guests is combinations and development of economies of scale that will reverse some of these pressures or minimize some of the pressures on earnings. Vonnie let me bring in Marcus Ashworth in london. Let me put the question to you. Go, ity is one way to competes with bloomberg, but hong kong buying the lse would be in a different direction. What would be better for Global Markets . Northsouthave the connect between shanghai and hong kong and then connect, potentially, to london. This is a much bigger thing. This is a political potato. We can look on the data point of view and there is so much in the london Stock Exchange. It is a platform for european government bonds, for instance. There are a lot of other things. There is so much more to this than just what we see as a Stock Exchange of london and a Hong Kong Stock Exchange. The Hong Kong Stock Exchange owns the london metal exchange. This is about global power between five or six big entities. Brokerages, big definitive, and bloomberg itself. This is about power across blocks of control, much more than one set of data. There is a bigger picture. Vonnie i am looking forward to your next Opinion Column on this because it sounds like there are tectonic shifts a foot. Kong gives an attractive enough offer to the london Stock Exchange, will the board decide to go in that direction . Vonnie they obviously marcus they obviously do not want to do that. They have planned out the perfect deal. How often does a bitter share price a bidder share rise when they get to take over the blackstone elements of what they were trying to combine . It is a perfect deal for them. , it is much higher than the stock price. You look back to it before the it was up 50 , the bid. The question now is whether cme or someone else comes in. Der comes in,id than the london Stock Exchange management are in play properly. They go to the regulators. Can the american buyer or the chinese buyer get around restrictions . This comes at a bad time for the london Stock Exchange management. Fascinating to watch. Vonnie the london Stock Exchange itself up more than 6 . Let me ask if there is a halo effect in terms of m a in general and the Capital Markets and future trading. That hass is one issue been in a spate of positive issues over the last couple of weeks. More ipo activity coming on board. A little bit more trading activity following the august lull. More excitement in markets in general. This is one point. I do not know that m a atlarge will expand exponentially as a result of this. In general, you are starting to see some signs of risk tolerance come back after what was an extraordinary august. By the middle of august we were trading in extreme overbought levels on the 10 year treasury, incredible defensiveness embedded in u. S. Equity prices as well as global stocks, but we are starting to see that reverse. You are starting to see signs of risk tolerance come back to some degree. I would guess that in order to get a strong search and risk tolerance you would have to squash the recession risk. In order to do that, you need to have some trade resolution or at least the hope on the negative trade news. If we can get that, we can see these trends extend. Vonnie even just today, overtures out of china, seemingly have a good impact on markets. We are getting into another earnings season. What drives the market in the next quarter . The president continues to tweet about the fed. Gina a lot of different things. Policy has been a huge driver on policy starting with tax reform, extending to a shift in the fed, now talking about the ecb and what the ecb will do with policy. It is definitely a huge part of the story. Trade and fiscal policy are also big parts of the story. What ive been talking to investors about is not underestimated underestimating the impact of the 2020 election on stocks. If you look at the third year of the election cycle for a sitting president , if those years include a fed easing, 100 of time stocks have been up, the s p on average by 5 in the Fourth Quarter. I think you want to consider the political climate. What the president will do with respect to trade policy has been unpredictable, but to the extent we continue to see progress on trade with inflationary centralbank action, it could be a very Good Environment for stocks. Vonnie does that extend across the atlantic . Can political certainty override Political Uncertainty in europe and britain in particular . Marcus i do not see any certainty in anything. I would be surprised to draw the parallel in the current environment. You see purchasing falling. That is a good indicator that gdp in the u. S. May dip. Europe is in a world of pain and we expect to have a raft of stuff come out of the ecb. Brexit is unknowable. Indeed, the china trade talks are an excuse often used for a slowing Manufacturing Sector globally. I find it hard to think the stocks will go up. I understand exactly what gina is saying. That may well be the case. If it does rise in the Fourth Quarter, that does not mean it will carry on in the First Quarter of next year, when probably u. S. Gdp will suffer. Vonnie both of you, thank you so much. Thanks to Bloomberg Intelligence chief equity strategist Gina Martin Adams in new york and market chatsworth Marcus Ashworth in london. Now i want to get to the european settlement because we are seeing stocks rise across europe. The cac 40 finishing. 4 . The ftse up. The london Stock Exchange group, the best performer, up 6 . A number of stocks lower, not the least of which shall and other energy companies. The dax in germany finishing the session. 75 up. This is bloomberg. Vonnie getting more detail on the bolton departure. Donald trump discussing easing sanctions on iran with the iranian president. That was to be later this month. That is what prompted john bolton to argue forcefully against that meeting. Once again, john bolton arguing forcefully with President Donald Trump against president discussing easing sanctions on iran with the iranian president. We understand, according to people familiar with the matter, that this is what caused john bolton to get gone from the administration. Lets check in on the bloomberg first word news. Courtney donohoe has that. Courtney President Trump is taking aim at one of his favorite targets, the Federal Reserve. On twitter, he called andymakers boneheads said jay powell is naive. He urged the fed to take rates down to zero or less, the level typically reserved for recession. China is keeping the pressure on u. S. Farmers. Beijing has announced a range of products exempt from 25 extra tariffs. Major Agricultural Products such as soybeans and pork are not exempted. Talk to the editor of chinas most prominent staterun newspaper. Lets not think of it as a concession. It is a goodwill gesture that shows china is confident. It is different from a contest from a concession. Tradeey top chinese negotiators will travel to washington for talks in the coming weeks. In california, the state passed a bill that could transform the gig economy. It would force companies such as uber and lyft to reclassified their workers as employees, which would make them eligible for minimum wage and overtime pay. The California State Legislature still needs to pass that measure. Global news 24 hours a day, on air and tictoc on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. I am courtney donohoe. This is bloomberg. Vonnie thank you. I want to recap those breaking headlines. President trump wade easing weighed easing iran sanctions. He was going to speak with the iranian president. This prompted pushback from john bolton. A forceful argument led to john boltons getting fired from the administration, according to three people familiar with the matter. More details on what caused bolton to get gone from the white house. ,rude oil is taking a leg lower perhaps on the idea President Trump is in favor of easing sanctions on iran. The treasury secretary Steven Mnuchin is all for the idea. He voiced his support for the move as a way to restart negotiations with iran according to some of the people to bloomberg. Time for our stock of the hour. Shares of roku rebounding, analysts saying the company may benefit from the apple tv announcement, 4. 99 a month. It may benefit rokus account growth. Taylor riggs has more. Why is that . Taylor it was interesting. Yesterday you had shares of all of apples competitors like roku, netflix, disney selloff on the news today you are starting to see a rebound in roku because analysts think roku may be poised to benefit from the overall structural shift from cable into the overthetop service. They say you cannot launch a streaming Service Without also launching it on roku. Roku would be poised to benefit. We have a chart showing the trends of Subscription Service from cable, which has seen year declines from five to 7 . That is similar to what you have seen and drop off rates from 20 well. You know the story. All of the cable providers are in terms 7 annually of losing subscribers. We also have a chart that shows with itscommits competitors. If you have the roku, if you , which has ae tv base of 900 million users, and then amazon has about 100 million prime subscribers. We know that has the free capability to go over to amazon prime. A lot of benefits that roku can capitalize on. They see them as being able to take on those larger competitors. Vonnie netflix is the leader now but it is also the most expensive. What does netflix leadership mean for roku . Taylor netflix was the early leader in the space, but now they are 13 a month for one of their most popular monthly services. They are one of the most expensive. If you come into my terminal at gtv , we are taking a look at since the ipo, roku is up 950 relative to netflix, only up 60 . Roku has been leading the charge and taking them on, leaving all the competitors behind. Roku going to be able to capitalize on all of the future transitions and you cannot launch a service unless you launch it on roku. Vonnie taylor riggs in san francisco, thank you. Type your latest Bloomberg Business flash. A look at some of the latest business stories. Protests in hong kong having an impact on Cathay Pacific, hong kongs flagship carrier reported the biggest drop in passenger traffic in more than a decade. Passenger traffic fell 11 from a year ago. In the last few weeks, Cathay Pacific ceo and chairman has announced their resignation. Billionaire pro basketball plan toupport the nbas buy minority shares of its team. Some owners say they would not take part. Milwaukee bucks coowner says he loves the idea. He says whether his team takes part will depend on the price. The smile direct club is expected to price above its market price. The maker of dental braces is hoping to raise 1. 5 billion, which would make it the fourth largest u. S. Listing so far this year. And that is your latest Bloomberg Business flash. Are following the news according to sources to bloomberg, President Trump weighed easing iran sanctions. This is what prompted john bolton to push back and ultimately get fired. Crude oil down 2. 4 on the idea of sanctions getting eased. More on that next. This is bloomberg. Vonnie we understand President Trump is weighing easing sanctions on iran. This is what prompted john bolton getting fired. Apparently john bolton pushed back on the idea of talking about easing sanctions with the iranian president later this month. President trump did not like that. Steven mnuchin was also in favor of it. He thought it would be a way to restart negotiations, according to people familiar with the matter. Support from Steven Mnuchin for the plan and pushback from john bolton. This is what prompted President Trump to fire bolton later that day. Crude oil down 2 , a kneejerk reaction to the idea sanctions might be eased. Lets bring in alix steel. Why would this impact the oil markets . Alix if we just pretend all sanctions will come off and iran is free to export whatever they like, it would add one million to 2 Million Barrels of oil per day depending on what iran is producing now. That would add a ton of supply into the market at a time when the department of energy in the u. S. As well as opec are advising down there Global Demand forecast. We could not absorb all of th oil coming online. What i want to point out is there is a line between taking up sanctions altogether, like iran you are free, to the u. S. Considering issuing waivers. The u. S. Is very firm on not issuing waivers for countries like south korea and china to buy iranian oil. If they would allow those countries to continue to buy up to a certain amount, that would also put more oil on the market and contribute to a slide in oil but would not be a blowout restart of iranian production. Vonnie it is interesting because we saw this at the g7, particularly with emmanuel trump, we saw president is not opposed to restarting negotiations. It seems more likely now that john bolton is gone this might actually happen. Alix i am still quite skeptical. The iranian president has made it clear he is not interested in a photo op with the president , referring to kim jongun and donald trump. You also have the foreign minister saying it was unimaginable they would wind up meeting. I ran has had a hard line that sanctions have to come off for them to meet. If the report we are getting is full sanctions, if we rollback all the sanctions, to me that would be a huge catalyst and probably bring rouhani to the table and help him save a lot of face and look good in iran as well. Sorry, i lost my mic. Very skeptical that would actually happen. Vonnie you could say we are already getting something more than a photo opportunity. If a departure from the white house counts for anything, then we would definitely see what john bolton now no longer the bolton now no longer the national advisor. Alix mike pompeo has also been something of a hardliner. He did not want war, he has taken war off the table, but he has also been an advocate of not having their shortterm waivers. There is still a hard line in it. There is a third prong, and that is saudi arabia playing in with iran. There are attacks from rebels in yemen on saudi arabia equipment, infrastructure, oil fields, and that has the implicit backing of the revolutionary guard and iran. I do not know if that winds up getting solved. That is another piece to the diplomatic puzzle. Vonnie and there are still hawks left in the administration. As Steven Mnuchin thinks this is a good idea, that does not mean the Staff Associated with Foreign Policy well. Alix sanctions come from the treasury department, but if youre looking at 700,000 barrels of oil coming back online, obviously that would be a material drag on the oil price. I am still skeptical. Vonnie commodities edge anchor alix steel, thank you for joining us and giving us that context. Coming up, balance of power with david westin. We will continue to follow the story on iran and john bolton and also speak with former new York City Police commissioner on the september 11 anniversary. This is bloomberg. David from bloomberg World Headquarters in new york, im david westin. Welcome to balance of power, where the world of politics meets the world of business. Lets go back to the breaking news. Bloomberg has just learned President Trump has discussed easing iran sanctions. That prompted pushback from john bolton and let him right out of the white house. Joined by alix steel with us in new york. We talked about whether john bolton might indicate some weakening of the position with iran. Does this make you think it is any more likely . Alix there are two potential scenarios i can outline. One is a complete rollback of sanctions, which would add between 1 million and 2 Million Barrels of oil a day. Rbc said just the fact that bolton was gone could add 7000 barrels of oil a day to the market. There is also another prong, which is the u. S. Had granted waivers to many countries like india and china and south